【中信证券新材料】行业跟踪点评：关注自主可控同时有明显增量的核聚变&核电、半导体及机器人材料 （2025/5/6） 关税影响暂时趋于缓和，但中期展望贸易形势仍旧较为复杂，我们看好以内需为主导，景气度长期向上的可控 核聚变、核电、军工等标的，同时建议关注机器人材料在政策引导下的板块回暖，以及半导体相关材料和零部件 自主可控和国产替代的持续演绎。 可控核聚变：5月1日BEST项目工程总装工作正式 【中信证券新材料】行业跟踪点评：关注自主可控同时有明显增量的核聚变&核电、半导体及机器人材料 （2025/5/6） 核聚变关键零部件在国内均有成熟供应体系，受外部冲击较小，作为新基建可拉动产业链需求释放。 建议关注国光电气、合锻智能、永鼎股份等。 核电：中越、中马联合声明提及核电合作，我们判断核电出口预期加强，有望进一步打开市场空间，建议关注 大西洋、中核科技、中密控股等。 人形机器人：板块回调较早且幅度较深，政策驱动下反弹趋势更为确定，建议关注南山智尚、同益中、福莱新 材、聚杰微纤。 半导体：美国特朗普政府可能最快于本周公布针对半导体加征关税的细节，市场预估税率可能高达25%～ 100%，国内将加快科技自立自强步伐，国 ...

【广发环保 郭鹏】环保行业2024年报及2025年1季报总结：流水迢迢，硕果累累 建议关注：聚光科技、皖仪科技、瀚蓝环境、盈峰环境、军信股份、海螺创业、永兴股份、绿色动力、旺能环境 等 2024年板块硕果累累：现金流、分红、成长多重亮点 24年/25Q1板块实现扣非归母净利199/72亿元，同比-5.9%/+3.8%，其中亮点： 1）#公用事业化，24年固废+水务扣非归母净利182亿元（同比+11. 【广发环保 郭鹏】环保行业2024年报及2025年1季报总结：流水迢迢，硕果累累 建议关注：聚光科技、皖仪科技、瀚蓝环境、盈峰环境、军信股份、海螺创业、永兴股份、绿色动力、旺能环境 等 2024年板块硕果累累：现金流、分红、成长多重亮点 24年/25Q1板块实现扣非归母净利199/72亿元，同比-5.9%/+3.8%，其中亮点： 1）#公用事业化，24年固废+水务扣非归母净利182亿元（同比+11.2%）、占板块比重91%（同比+14pct）； 2）#自由现金流转正、分红提高，板块24年经营性/投资性现金流净额分别为547/-472亿元，#对应简略自由现金流 75.8亿元，#首次转正，板块典型41支高分红标的分红 ...

果链位置低期待AI期权/端侧重点推荐AR眼镜/自主可控推荐【国力、方邦】 #果链位置低，关税或螺旋缓解落地，后续可期待AI期权 果链Q1业绩多数落在乐观上沿，对Q2展望普遍仍旧是增长的，且短期可能存在提前备货效应驱动。 从苹果财报会表述来看，并未提及对供应链的压力，Q2 9亿美元影响，Q3暂时看不清，但cook所表述的印度生产多数美国iPhone以及其他美国硬件大多在越南生产，后续 展望关税的 果链位置低期待AI期权/端侧重点推荐AR眼镜/自主可控推荐【国力、方邦】 #果链位置低，关税或螺旋缓解落地，后续可期待AI期权 果链Q1业绩多数落在乐观上沿，对Q2展望普遍仍旧是增长的，且短期可能存在提前备货效应驱动。 从苹果财报会表述来看，并未提及对供应链的压力，Q2 9亿美元影响，Q3暂时看不清，但cook所表述的印度生产多数美国iPhone以及其他美国硬件大多在越南生产，后续 展望关税的影响大概率通过之前供应链已经经历过的产能迁移来解决。 近期美国对华似有释放谈判的积极信号，可以期待关税问题螺旋缓解，假期港股果链也有反弹。 关税对果链EPS的冲击我们认为中性假设下影响有限。 展望果链后续，Q2关税落地后影响预计能 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses developments in the AI and robotics sectors, particularly focusing on domestic AI models and overseas AI capabilities, as well as consumer electronics [1] Key Company Insights - **DeepSeek** reported total revenue of $700.66 million for Q1 FY25, with a year-over-year growth of 13% [1] - **Meta** announced total revenue of $423.14 million for Q1 FY25, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 16% [1] - **Huawei** is expected to launch a HarmonyOS version of its PC, with plans to upgrade older models to be fully self-controlled [1] - **Xiaomi** introduced the MiMo-7B, a large model for open-source inference, which excels in mathematical reasoning and code generation [1] Financial Performance - DeepSeek's revenue for Q1 FY25 was $700.66 million, with a net profit margin that indicates strong operational efficiency [1] - Meta's revenue for Q1 FY25 was $423.14 million, showcasing significant growth in its financial performance [1] Future Projections - Huawei anticipates a capital expenditure (Capex) increase in Q3, with a revised full-year Capex forecast for 2025 set between $64 billion and $72 billion [1] - Meta's third-generation glasses are projected to have sales expand to approximately 10 million units [1] - Apple is expected to launch a new ultra-thin iPhone model within the year, with a projected release of a foldable version by 2026 [1] Additional Noteworthy Points - The conference highlighted the importance of self-controlled systems in consumer electronics, particularly in the context of the ongoing technological advancements in AI and robotics [1] - The introduction of the "AsExo-TK1000" exoskeleton by a domestic company marks a significant step in integrating AI with physical robotics [1] - The call also touched on the implications of U.S. export controls on new Chinese AI products, indicating a competitive landscape influenced by regulatory factors [1]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index showed upward movement at the end of April, providing guidance for May's market trends [1] - Historically, overseas markets tend to rise during long holidays, with notable increases in AI giants' stock prices, such as Microsoft and Mate [2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for April exceeded expectations, with an increase of 177,000 jobs compared to the forecast of 138,000 [3] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on May 7 is expected to maintain current interest rates, with a strong focus on the strengthening of the RMB, which recently surpassed the 7.20 mark for the first time since November [4] - The fiscal deficit for the year is projected at 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from the previous year, indicating a higher deficit rate of 4% [4] Industry Trends - The release of the Harmony OS PC version is anticipated soon, which aims to reduce reliance on Windows and create a self-sufficient ecosystem, potentially reshaping the PC market [5] - Xiaomi's MiMo model, with a parameter scale of 7 billion, is designed for lightweight deployment, particularly in mobile and automotive applications [5] - The humanoid robot market is expected to see significant growth, with projections indicating that humanoid robots will enter the general product category by 2026, reaching a production or sales threshold of 100,000 units [5] Company Performance - UBTECH Robotics (09880) is projected to achieve a revenue of 1.305 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23.7%, driven by growth in educational and customized intelligent robot products [6] - The company’s revenue from educational robots and solutions is expected to reach 363 million yuan, while revenue from customized robots is projected to grow by 126.1% to 141 million yuan [6][7] - The company has made advancements in navigation, machine vision, and AI integration, which are expected to accelerate the industrialization of humanoid robots [8] AI Industry Developments - The AI sector remains a focal point in the U.S.-China tech rivalry, with recent calls for restrictions on AI technology flow to China [9] - Major Chinese tech companies are ramping up AI development, with Alibaba and Tencent making significant advancements in their AI models [9] - Upcoming releases and investments in AI infrastructure are expected to catalyze growth in the technology sector, with Huawei set to launch new products in May [9] Market Sentiment - The Hang Seng Index is showing bullish sentiment, supported by a concentration of market interest in technology and consumer sectors, particularly in robotics and AI applications [10][11]

Core Insights - As of the end of Q4 2024, the allocation of actively managed public funds in the electronic sector is expected to reach 9.63% of the total market value of fund equity investments, indicating an overweight position [1] - The electronic industry index has risen further this year due to multiple factors, including the exploration of new paths for large model development by Deepseek, a meeting held by the central government with private entrepreneurs, and increased capital expenditures by leading domestic cloud companies [1] - The U.S. tariff policy is accelerating the "blockchain" of the global supply chain, which is expected to have a significant impact on global manufacturing [1] Industry Impact - Certain semiconductor products, such as logic chips and memory chips, are temporarily exempt from tariffs; however, the imposition of tariffs on supporting materials (like substrates and packaging adhesives) is raising overall manufacturing costs in the semiconductor industry [1] - The evolving landscape of the global semiconductor industry and the complex international trade environment may lead overseas companies to adopt a "Local for local" production strategy to mitigate tariff impacts when establishing operations in China [1] - The short-term impact of U.S. tariff policies on China's semiconductor industry is relatively limited, but companies reliant on the U.S. market may face pressure [1] - In the long term, the effects of tariffs could delay downstream demand recovery and lead to order cancellations, while domestic replacement and self-controlled enterprises are likely to benefit [1]

对于我们这样的大国来说，经济稍微弱一点还能扛得住，最怕的是关键科技产业被人"卡脖子"，成为别人手里的软肋。所以，自主可控才是关键。这也为节 后的A股开局奠定了不错的基础，那么节后A股大盘指数能不能一鼓作气向上突破呢？ 总之，现在内需以稳为主，增量发力还得靠科技。与此同时，人民币汇率持续走强。离岸人民币兑美元汇率强势反弹，盘中连续升穿7.27、7.26、7.25、 7.24、7.23五道关口。截至这次贸易战变卦时，离岸人民币兑美元汇率报7.2103，较尾盘涨了686个基点。 二、明天就是最关键的1天，如果能收放量阳线，则能开启5月份的行情。 一、中美贸易战又变卦！传出关系可能破冰缓和的消息，外围股市上涨，人民币汇率大幅升值。 成交额达到1.17万亿，这也是近期5个交易日的最大量，说明最后一个交易日，布局节后行情入场的资金开始增加。同时，部分资金从红利避险板块流出， 回归题材，这说明4月的暴雷节点已经过去了。 三、大幅升值，升值幅度都远大于美元指数跌幅。 假期发生了很多事，包括美国4月非农就业数据超预期，中美经贸磋商释放出缓和信号，五一出行数据刷新历史新高，人民币大幅升值等等。 这些事对A股来说都是利好，节后开门 ...

Overall Performance - A-share listed companies achieved a total operating income of approximately 72 trillion yuan in 2024, showing steady progress supported by a series of incremental policies [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange main board companies generated a total operating income of 49.57 trillion yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange companies reported 20.82 trillion yuan [2] - The Beijing Stock Exchange had 265 companies with a total operating income of 1808.45 billion yuan, remaining stable compared to 2023 [2] Profitability - The net profit of Shanghai Stock Exchange main board companies reached 4.35 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [3] - The net profit of companies on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange totaled 8064.47 billion yuan, while the Beijing Stock Exchange companies reported a net profit of 110.30 billion yuan [3] R&D Investment - R&D investment by A-share companies continued to increase, with Shanghai Stock Exchange companies investing over 1 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 40% of national R&D expenditure [4] - The average R&D intensity of companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange reached 5.04% in 2024, with over 60% of companies increasing their R&D investment year-on-year [4][5] Dividend Distribution - In 2024, 1259 companies on the Shanghai Stock Exchange announced cash dividends totaling 1.77 trillion yuan, a 6% increase year-on-year [7] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange companies disclosed a total dividend amount of 5789.55 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.97% [7] Export Performance - China's goods trade exports reached a new high in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.3%, and overseas business income of listed companies accounted for 14.3% of total revenue [8] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange main board companies achieved overseas income of 6.09 trillion yuan, while Shenzhen Stock Exchange companies reported 4.18 trillion yuan, with significant growth in export-oriented companies [8] High-Value Products - High-value products are increasingly penetrating global markets, with the median gross margin of overseas sales for companies on the Science and Technology Innovation Board reaching 40.8% [9] - 37 companies ranked first globally in terms of shipment volume, market share, and sales in their respective fields, showcasing the international influence of domestic innovations [9]

风险提示：关税影响传导至内需，国内经济表现超预期 >>以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已经发布的研究报告： 五一消费：出行高增，服务偏强 ，具体分析内容（包括风险提示等） 请详见完 整版报告。 【策略 】 重要转折之后：中国股市有望进一步走高 大势研判：中国 A/H 股市有望进一步走高。 国泰海通策略在 4 月 7 日市场低点，旗帜鲜明判断"中国股 市进入击球区"、"继续看多中国股市"、"中国股市的升势远未结束"。 节前上证指数接近 3300 点，五一 期间恒生科技单日大涨 3.1% ，收复"对等关税"失地。 我们认为， 3-4 月股市的调整与有力的修复，是 继 924 后再一次的重要转折。其表明， 投资者关于中美竞争的严峻性与对决策层扭转形势决心的疑虑消 减，既是风险释放也是试金石。 展望下一阶段，我们维持对中国股市的乐观看法： 1 ） 遍历冲击后，投 资人对经济形势的认识已然充分，包括交易结构的出清，是股市好转的重要前提。 2 ）美国"对等关税"落 地后，总体上进入拉锯与谈判的窗口期，尽管仍有不确定性，但第一阶段的激烈摩擦告一段落，形成有利 的做多窗口。 3 ）既然中美的竞争是长期性的，由此，股市预期的关键"在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to show a pattern of "weight index rebound and active technology growth" in May, with a focus on investing in industries with improved performance after the earnings disclosure period [1][2]. Market Outlook - After the earnings disclosure period, the market will actively invest in industries with improved performance, and as it enters a performance vacuum, new industry trends are emerging, making thematic investments likely to return [2][3]. - The market's downward adjustment space is limited due to the stabilizing effect of the central bank, which is expected to enhance risk appetite and lead to a return of financing balances [2][4]. Style and Industry Configuration - A-shares are expected to shift towards small-cap growth styles as seasonal effects weaken, driven by improved earnings growth and easing trade tensions [3]. - Key industries to focus on include computing, automotive, machinery (automation and general equipment), non-ferrous metals, social services, and agriculture, with an emphasis on sectors recovering from tariff impacts and those experiencing local economic improvements [3][6]. Liquidity and Capital Supply-Demand - The market's risk appetite is anticipated to recover in May, with financing funds likely to flow back into the market [4]. - The stock market saw net inflows in April, with ETFs becoming the main source of incremental capital, while financing funds experienced net outflows due to decreased risk appetite [4]. Mid-Cycle Prosperity and Industry Recommendations - The focus is on sectors that are recovering from tariff impacts and showing signs of economic improvement, particularly in consumer services, high-tech manufacturing, and real estate [5][6]. - Recommended sectors include consumer services (home appliances, furniture, jewelry), new energy vehicles, and high-tech manufacturing, with a focus on areas with high or improving prosperity [6]. Track and Industry Trend Investment - The 2025 Shanghai Auto Show highlighted the debut of humanoid robots, showcasing advancements in automotive technology and AI applications [7].