中辉有色观点 | 11/2 140 112 | | | --- | --- | | 1 | | | I | A | | 75 11 | 3 | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 美元大跌，美国政府关门风险陡增、美联储主席候选人一波三折，伊朗局势紧张， | | | 长线持有 | 欧美地缘问题反复，多基金撤离美元资产，流动性风险偏好尚可。中长期地缘秩序 | | ★★ | | 重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 白银短期波动率较大，分析来看，白银自身逻辑让位于黄金带来的避险属性，全年 | | 白银 | 长期持有 | 来看交割交易等持续，注意节奏控制。长期降息、供需缺口连续 5 年，全球大财政 | | ★★ | | | | | | 均对白银长期有利，长期滚动做多逻辑不变。 | | | | 特朗普暗示可操纵汇率，美元指数跌至 4 年新低，中东局势紧张。铜矿供应紧张， | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 海外冶炼厂长协谈判承压，强预期和弱现实博弈激烈，铜隔夜测试 10 万关口支撑， | | ★ | | 建议铜多单移动止 ...

格隆汇1月28日｜高盛报告指出，尽管地缘政治风险上升，但投资者风险偏好仍处高位，显示市场对宏 观风险消化较为充分。根据该行的最新仓位与情绪指标，投资者乐观情绪目前位于约67百分位水平，其 专有风险偏好指数也升至2021年4月以来最高，凸显出投资者继续青睐风险资产的程度。当前资金正全 面流向高风险资产，股票配置保持积极，投资者持续超配并扩大全球布局，未转向防御。美国散户的持 续参与支撑了市场广度，同时国际资金加速流入欧洲、日本及新兴市场。这表明投资者对全球增长前景 信心增强，正从集中配置美国转向分散布局，更愿意增配可能受益于周期复苏、估值优势或政策改善的 地区。 ...

红星资本局1月28日消息，今日早盘，国际金价大幅拉涨，盘中首次站上5200美元，再创历史新高。截至发稿，伦敦金现、COMEX黄金分别报5227.87美元/ 盎司、5218.2美元/盎司，年内累计涨超20%。 今年以来，白银市场也迎来史诗级行情。红星资本局注意到，截至发稿，不到一个月时间里，伦敦现货白银、COMEX白银期货年内累计涨幅均已超过 50%。自2025年11月以来，两者累计涨幅更是双双突破130%，显著超越同期国际金价30%左右的涨幅。 截至发稿，白银现货、期货均突破113美元/盎司。 与此同时，白银价格的波动也日趋剧烈。1月27日，现货白银上演"过山车"行情，日内一度暴涨14%并创下历史新高，随后又快速回落转跌，亚市开盘后， 现货白银再度涨超5%，剧烈震荡引发市场高度关注。 伴随行情持续升温，1月27日，内地市场唯一主投白银的基金——国投瑞银白银期货（LOF）发布公告，宣布旗下A类与C类基金自1月28日起暂停申购及定 投业务，理由是为保护基金份额持有人利益。该基金还宣布于1月28日开市起至当日10:30停牌，原因是二级市场交易价格明显高于基金份额净值，出现较大 幅度溢价。 国投瑞银基金指出，理解投资 ...

Group 1 - The international gold market is experiencing a slight weakening due to profit-taking and a stabilizing US dollar index, which limits the upward movement of gold prices [1] - The upcoming Federal Reserve decision is expected to maintain interest rates, further diminishing the appeal for gold bulls [1] - Despite potential hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell, it is unlikely to reverse the current gold price trend, as multiple supportive factors for gold remain in play [3] Group 2 - The long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, driven by geopolitical risks, economic policy uncertainties, and institutional optimism, with expectations of gold prices reaching $5,500 in the short term and potentially $6,000 [3] - There is a possibility of gold prices touching $10,000 before 2030, indicating a strong long-term bullish sentiment [3] - Technical analysis shows that gold prices are currently strong, operating above the upper Bollinger Band, with support levels providing potential re-entry opportunities for bullish positions [3]

在地缘政治紧张与美国寒潮天气共同冲击下，国际油价强劲反弹，收盘价更是刷新了3个月来的新高。 同时，港A两地石油股继续走高。港股市场中，中国海洋石油、中海油田服务涨超5%，中国石油股份、上海石油化 工股份涨超4%，中国石油化工股份涨超3%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00883 | 中国海洋石油 | 24.820 | +1.300 | 5.53% | | 02883 | 中海油田服务 | 9.060 | +0.470 | 5.47% | | 00346 | 延长石油国际 | 0.415 | +0.020 | 5.06% | | 00857 | 中国石油股份 | 9.240 | +0.430 | 4.88% | | 00338 | 上海石油化工股份 | 1.560 | +0.070 | 4.70% | | 00386 | 中国石油化工股份 | 5.450 | +0.190 | 3.61% | | 00135 | 昆仑能源 | 8.000 | +0.050 | C ( C ( 3 ) | A股市场中，通源石油2 ...

2 2017 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2026/1/28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2602 | AG2602 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 | 2026/1/27 | 5083. 88 | 109. 62 | 5079. 20 | 109.72 | 1151.76 | 28230.00 | 1142. 52 | 28394.00 | | 格跟踪 (本表数 | | | | | ...

文｜财华社 进入2026年，黄金的上涨之势未曾稍歇，金价还在一路攀升，并于1月26日历史首次突破5100美元的整数关口，但随后遭遇回落。而截至1月27日发稿时 间，金价再涨近1.6%，现报5085美元/盎司，非常接近前一日创下的历史新高价位。 有分析称，近年金价飙升主要围绕去美元化、美联储独立性、央行购金、美国关税、地缘冲突以及传统实际利率定价框架相关的通胀、就业及美联储降息 预期等逻辑交易。 多家企业购入金矿资产 同期，江西铜业也发出正式要约，拟以约8.67亿英镑现金收购英国上市公司索尔黄金（SolGold），其主要目标为拥有厄瓜多尔卡斯卡维尔铜金矿项目。 机构对黄金后市有何看法？ 需要指出的是，金价新高之际的扩产引起了投资者的广泛关注。而从机构观点来看，金价的长期前景似乎仍有值得期待的地方。 建信期货今日发文称，从长周期看，地缘政治风险冲击全球政治经济贸易货币体系，地缘政治风险带来的避险需求和全球贸易货币体系重组带来的储备分 散化需求持续推高金价波动中枢；特朗普2.0以美国利益为核心推行关税武器化并循丛林法则重构地缘战略空间，全球政治经济贸易货币体系加速重组， 黄金长周期牛市基础进一步巩固，目前金价继续运 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the precious metals market, specifically gold and silver, amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and liquidity issues in London [3][4]. Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have surged above $5,000 per ounce due to increased safe haven demand driven by geopolitical tensions and rising Japanese bond yields [3]. - The current price levels are viewed as uncertain for tactical investors, with potential for a temporary retracement or further price increases depending on geopolitical and fiscal developments [3]. - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, with a forecast of $5,400 per ounce by December 2026, supported by central bank buying and increased investor demand as the Federal Reserve eases monetary policy [3]. - There is a significant upside risk to the gold forecast, particularly if private investors increase their gold ETF purchases [3]. Silver Market Insights - Silver prices have increased by 51% year-to-date and have surpassed $100 per ounce, continuing a strong rally from 2025 when prices rose by 138% [3]. - The price volatility is expected to persist due to ongoing liquidity squeezes in London, which affect benchmark prices [3][4]. - Speculation regarding U.S. trade policy, particularly potential tariffs on silver, has led to pre-positioning of metal in the U.S., reducing available inventory in London and contributing to price swings [3]. - Although U.S. tariffs on silver are considered unlikely, policy uncertainty remains high, which could prolong the liquidity squeeze and lead to further price fluctuations [4]. Additional Considerations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring geopolitical and fiscal developments as they can significantly impact precious metal prices [3]. - Investors are advised to remain cautious, especially those averse to volatility, given the potential for extreme price swings in both gold and silver [3]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and forecasts regarding the precious metals market, highlighting the factors influencing price movements and the outlook for investors.

地缘扰动下的原油与石化市场 20260127 伊朗局势为何如此重要？霍尔木兹海峡在全球石油贸易中的作用是什么？ 伊朗局势之所以重要，是因为其出口体量大且霍尔木兹海峡是全球关键航道。 伊朗每日原油产量约 340 万桶，其中 180 万桶用于出口，而这些出口主要依 赖茶壶炼厂，通过影子邮轮规避制裁。此外，通过霍尔木兹海峡出口的不仅包 括伊朗，还包括沙特、阿联酋、科威特、伊拉克和卡塔尔，总计每日 1,500 万 桶，占全球供应量 15%。 一旦霍尔木兹海峡受到干扰，将严重影响中东区域 内石油运输，从而引发外溢效应，对全球能源市场产生巨大冲击。尽管历史上 该海峡从未关闭，但其战略重要性使得任何潜在风险都会引发市场担忧。 委内瑞拉事件对原有及成品有市场有何具体影响？ 摘要 地缘政治风险（俄乌冲突、伊朗局势）和制裁（委内瑞拉、伊朗、俄罗 斯）导致原油市场分化，支撑油价，抵消了部分供过于求的影响。 全球石油需求增速放缓，预计 2030 年前维持低速增长，电动车渗透率 提高是中国需求达峰的主要因素，其他国家需求增量有限。 美国页岩油增长放缓，南美及新兴产油国供给增加，OPEC 减产调控市 场份额面临挑战，预计 2026 年 ...

Group 1: General Information - The reports cover multiple industries including oils and fats, cotton, sugar, jujube, apple, corn, hog, meal, and egg, dated January 28, 2026 [1][2][4][6][8][10][13][17][19] Group 2: Oils and Fats Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Palm oil may face resistance and fall due to concerns about limited inventory decline; soybean oil is affected by South American soybean harvest and geopolitical risks; rapeseed oil is influenced by US threats to Canada and inventory status [1] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean oil was 8,660 yuan/ton, up 0.12% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2605 was 8,258 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The basis of Y2605 was 412 yuan/ton, down 5.07%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 9,253 yuan/ton, up 1.46%; the futures price of P2605 was 9,238 yuan/ton, up 1.61%. The basis of P2605 was 28 yuan/ton, down 46.43%. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed oil was 10,306 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; the futures price of OI605 was 9,326 yuan/ton, down 0.20% [1] - **Inventory and Other Factors**: Palm oil inventory changes will be a focus at the end of the month; soybean oil is affected by South American soybean harvest and geopolitical risks; rapeseed oil is influenced by US - Canada relations and inventory [1] Group 3: Cotton Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - ICE US cotton maintains a low - level shock, and domestic Zheng cotton is supported by downstream demand and planting area adjustment expectations [2] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of cotton 2605 was 14,565 yuan/ton, down 0.58%; the futures price of cotton 2609 was 14,710 yuan/ton, down 0.64%. The spot price of Xinjiang 3128B was 15,633 yuan/ton, down 0.53% [2] - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory decreased by 100%, industrial inventory increased by 1.5%, import volume increased by 49.5%, and other indicators showed different changes [2] Group 4: Sugar Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - ICE raw sugar maintains a low - level shock, and domestic sugar price is expected to maintain a low - level shock with support from cost and market atmosphere [4] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of sugar 2605 was 2,168 yuan/ton, down 0.08%; the futures price of sugar 2609 was 2,182 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. The spot price of Nanning was 5,300 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [4] - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production decreased by 16.43%, sales decreased by 37.18%, and other indicators changed accordingly [4] Group 5: Jujube Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The jujube spot market has weak transactions, and the futures is in a low - valuation range. Attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival transactions and inventory [6] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of jujube 2605 was 8,820 yuan/ton, up 0.68% [6] - **Market Situation**: The spot market has weak transactions, and some traders exchange price for volume, with some small factories shutting down [6] Group 6: Apple Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The apple market is affected by pre - holiday demand, but high prices may suppress consumption, and inventory removal is slow [8] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of apple 2605 was 9,504 yuan/ton, up 0.40% [8] - **Market Situation**: The market sentiment is warming up, but the inventory removal of ordinary apples is slow due to high prices and competition from other fruits [8] Group 7: Corn Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Short - term corn price is supported by farmers' reluctance to sell and pre - holiday inventory building, but is pressured by policy release and high - price transmission difficulties, maintaining a high - level shock [10] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of corn 2603 was 2,283 yuan/ton, down 0.44%; the futures price of corn starch 2603 was 2,540 yuan/ton, down 0.70% [10] - **Market Situation**: Northeast corn price is stable and strong, North China has a small inventory - replenishing intention, and feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory in a rolling manner [10] Group 8: Hog Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The hog market is expected to maintain a bottom - range shock, with increasing supply pressure and limited fundamental benefits [13] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of hog 2605 was 11,695 yuan/ton, down 0.55%; the futures price of hog 2603 was 11,285 yuan/ton, down 1.57% [13] - **Market Situation**: Spot price is weakening, supply pressure is increasing, and the base difference is strong, but the fundamental situation is not optimistic [13] Group 9: Meal Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The meal market is expected to maintain a shock, with support at the bottom and pressure at the top [17] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 3,120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of M2605 was 2,766 yuan/ton, down 0.11% [17] - **Market Situation**: The domestic spot market is loose, the开机率 is high, and the inventory is still relatively high, but the first - quarter arrival expectation is low and there is uncertainty [17] Group 10: Egg Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The egg market is expected to maintain a range shock, with sufficient supply and attention to the digestion ability of high - price goods [19] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of egg 03 contract was 3,047 yuan/500KG, down 0.72%; the futures price of egg 04 contract was 3,322 yuan/500KG, down 1.25% [19] - **Market Situation**: Egg price increase boosts farmers' confidence, supply is sufficient, and attention should be paid to the terminal digestion ability of high - price eggs [19]