Group 1 - Wall Street analysts have returned to a neutral outlook on gold prices following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with 40% expecting prices to rise in the coming week, 20% predicting a decline, and 40% anticipating a sideways movement [1] - Retail investors have cooled their enthusiasm, with 58% optimistic about price increases, 24% forecasting declines, and 18% expecting consolidation, indicating a retreat from previous bullish sentiment [1] - The Shanghai gold price surged to a historic high, increasing by 2.01% to close at 846.5 yuan per gram [1] Group 2 - According to GF Futures, the market's interpretation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is neutral, with the dollar index rebounding after a decline [3] - Technical indicators suggest that the precious metals market has entered an overbought condition, leading to a potential pullback as funds may exit due to the "buy the rumor, sell the news" logic [3] - The outlook for the future indicates that with increasing risks in the U.S. labor market, the dual characteristics of "strengthened expectations - compromised independence" in the Federal Reserve's policy path will continue to suppress the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, while geopolitical tensions in Europe and the U.S. will increase institutional demand for precious metals as a safe haven [3]

Group 1 - Precious metals market rebounds strongly after a brief correction, with silver reaching a 14-year high and leading the gains in the gold and silver sector [1] - As of 11:00 AM, New York silver rose by 1.50% to $43.58 per ounce, while Shanghai silver surged by 3.07% to ¥10,243 per kilogram [1] - Gold also experienced upward movement, with New York gold futures increasing by 0.43% to $3,721.8 per ounce, and Shanghai gold rising by 1.25% to ¥840.16 per gram [1] Group 2 - Silver's price increase is driven by speculative sentiment and growing industrial demand in sectors such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and semiconductors, maintaining a supply-demand imbalance [1] - The gold-silver ratio in the domestic market is around 83, while the international market is approximately 85, indicating potential for silver price correction as it remains above the historical range of 60-80 [1] - Multiple factors, including speculative sentiment, industrial fundamentals, interest rate cuts, and geopolitical uncertainties, are expected to enhance silver's price elasticity compared to gold [1] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance, as indicated by officials, reinforces market expectations for continued monetary easing, supporting precious metal prices [2] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are escalating, significantly boosting global market risk aversion and providing strong support for gold and silver prices [2] - The ongoing restructuring of military alliances in the region and the anticipated long-term conflicts are likely to sustain demand for gold and silver as traditional safe-haven assets [2] Group 4 - Overall, expectations of monetary policy easing, political and geopolitical uncertainties, along with bullish sentiment from institutions, are driving upward momentum in gold and silver prices [3] - Technically, key support for New York gold has risen to around $3,600, with potential to reach $3,800, while silver, benefiting from both financial and industrial demand, aims for a target of $45 after breaking through $43 [3] - Market corrections are viewed as opportunities for positioning, with gold and silver expected to remain in a long-term bullish trend [3]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：同小泰话基金） 国际金价再次逼近3700美元关口，港股黄金板块全线走强，背后是全球央行持续购金与地缘政治风险的 双重支撑。 今日板块行情 今日亚洲早盘时段，现货黄金价格小幅走高，上涨0.1%，报每盎司3687.84美元。市场在美联储降息后 弥漫观望情绪，等待更多关于利率路径的线索。 与此同时，港股黄金概念股表现强劲，黄金股的强劲表现吸引了市场目光，资金涌入黄金相关资产明 显。 黄金卷土重来？ 黄金市场在经过短暂盘整后再次展现强势。今年以来，金价已经上涨40%，市场密切关注在美联储启动 降息循环过程中，黄金是否仍能保持上涨动能。 美联储9月FOMC会议如期降息25个基点，点阵图显示年内还将降息50个基点，符合市场预期。降息落 地后，黄金可能面临"卖事实"的回调压力。 然而，全球央行购金热潮成为金价的重要支撑。自2022年中期以来，各央行的黄金购买量增加了两倍， 达到每季度约1千万盎司。 高盛在近期发布的报告中指出："我们证明了自2022年中期以来，央行推动了黄金需求的增长，而新的 地缘政治或金融冲击可能会大幅推高金价。" 后市展望 多家机构对黄金后市保持乐观态度。渣打银行分析认为，技术支 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices remain strong following the Federal Reserve's first rate cut of 25 basis points, which has increased the appeal of non-yielding assets [1][3] Group 1: Market Analysis - Despite a slowdown in the pace of rate cuts, the overall upward trend in gold prices is expected to continue due to strong market expectations for further easing [3] - The upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is a key focus, as a slowdown in inflation could reinforce expectations for additional rate cuts this year [3] - Current market surveys indicate traders anticipate nearly two more rate cuts within the year [3] Group 2: Gold Price Dynamics - Year-to-date, gold has seen an increase of nearly 40%, supported by factors such as geopolitical risks, U.S. tariff policies creating global economic uncertainty, and central banks increasing gold purchases and ETF holdings [3] - Technical analysis shows strong support for gold around $3,650, with resistance concentrated at the $3,700 level; a breakthrough could lead to a challenge of historical highs between $3,710 and $3,720 [3] - The moving average system remains bullish, with MACD in a positive momentum zone, although momentum is narrowing, indicating a potential slowdown in the upward trend [3] Group 3: Editor's Perspective - Gold prices are currently driven by both Federal Reserve policy expectations and safe-haven demand; if PCE inflation data shows a slowdown, prices may approach or exceed historical highs [5] - Conversely, stronger-than-expected data could trigger market adjustments [5] - In the medium to long term, the trend of central bank gold purchases, global economic uncertainty, and ongoing geopolitical risks will continue to provide solid support for gold [5]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices continue to rise, supported by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, safe-haven demand, and central bank purchases, with a cumulative increase of nearly 10% this month [1] Group 1 - Despite investors perceiving the Federal Reserve's future policy statements as less dovish than expected, gold prices are still on an upward trend [1] - Barbara Lambrecht from Commerzbank suggests that the current momentum in gold prices may have paused, but Asian buyers are gradually adapting to the high price levels [1] - The expectation is that the Federal Reserve will cut rates more than the market anticipates next year, indicating a long-term bullish outlook for gold prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold has attracted some buyers and halted a two-day pullback from historical highs, driven by renewed geopolitical risks that have increased demand for the safe-haven asset, although upside potential appears limited [1][3]. Group 1: Geopolitical Risks and Market Dynamics - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions, have provided some support for gold prices [3][4]. - U.S. President Donald Trump expressed disappointment in Russian President Vladimir Putin, urging allies to stop purchasing oil from Russia to end the ongoing war with Ukraine [4]. - The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced proposals to accelerate the EU's phase-out of fossil fuel imports from Russia [4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Dollar Impact - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish stance has supported the dollar, limiting the upward movement of gold, which is a non-yielding asset [2][5]. - The Fed announced its first rate cut since December 2024, indicating further cuts may occur by the end of the year amid a weak labor market [4]. - The dollar is expected to rebound from its lowest level since February 2022 following Powell's hawkish assessment, which has suppressed gold prices [3][5]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Gold (XAU/USD) maintained slight gains but failed to break the $3,660 mark, with resistance expected around $3,673-$3,675 if it breaks above [3][8]. - A significant drop below the $3,628-$3,626 support level could lead to further declines towards $3,563-$3,562, with $3,511-$3,510 acting as strong support [8]. - Caution is advised before making aggressive directional bets, as the market awaits strong follow-up buying to confirm the end of the recent pullback from historical highs [5][6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold experienced short - term profit - taking after the Fed's September rate cut, but maintains a long - term bullish outlook. The Fed's dot - plot shows a further 50bp rate cut this year and continued easing in 2025, which, along with other factors, supports the mid - term upward momentum of gold prices [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday and hinted at further rate cuts for the rest of the year in response to concerns about the weakening job market [2]. - US President Trump paid a second state visit to the UK and praised the special relationship between the two countries [2]. - US Congressman John Moolenaar expressed concerns about the TikTok framework agreement between China and the US [2]. 3.2 Price Logic - Gold has been oscillating in the range of 3,660 - 3,700 after the Fed's September rate cut. It has risen about 39% since the beginning of the year, and although there is short - term profit - taking, mid - term upward momentum remains [3]. - Driving factors include the Fed's expected 50bp rate cut this year and continued easing in 2025, global central banks' continuous gold purchases, Trump's pressure on the Fed's independence, and escalating geopolitical conflicts [3]. - The global ETF gold holdings are still about 3,000 tons, with room to recover to the 2020 high of 3,500 tons [3]. - In the short term, focus on the 3500 - 3800 oscillation range, and maintain a long - term bullish view [3]. 3.3 Outlook - Weekly London gold spot is expected to be in the range of [3500, 3800], and weekly London silver spot in the range of [39, 45] [3]. 3.4 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index of commodities on September 18, 2025: the commodity 20 index was 2489.53, down 1.04%; the industrial products index was 2246.67, down 1.06% [42]. 3.5 Precious Metals Index - On September 18, 2025, the precious metals index was 2878.86, with a daily decline of 1.22%, a 5 - day decline of 1.53%, a 1 - month increase of 6.56%, and a year - to - date increase of 30.12% [44].

Core Viewpoint - Recent expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have significantly boosted international gold prices, with the price surpassing $3,700 per ounce for the first time, reaching a historical high of $3,703.13 per ounce on September 16 [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Impact on Gold Prices - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first rate cut of the year and the fourth since last year [1][2] - Analysts indicate that the Fed's interest rate policy is a crucial factor influencing gold prices, with expectations of further rate cuts supporting the recent price increases [2][3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Following the Fed's announcement, gold prices experienced volatility, retreating to around $3,650 per ounce [1] - Market analysts suggest that while short-term pressures may exist due to profit-taking, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and central bank gold purchases [3][4] Group 3: Underlying Factors Supporting Gold Prices - Key drivers for the recent rise in gold prices include concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve due to political pressures and signs of a slowing U.S. labor market [1][2] - The global economic landscape, characterized by loose monetary policies and increasing gold purchases by central banks, is expected to provide a supportive environment for gold prices in the medium term [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gold (XAU/USD) is under pressure, retreating below the historical high of $3700, influenced by a rebound in the US dollar following the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates and comments from Chairman Powell indicating no immediate need for rapid rate cuts [1][2]. Market Drivers - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, with indications of two more rate cuts within the year due to a slowing job market [2]. - Despite an initial surge in gold prices, the rebound in US Treasury yields and the dollar led to a sharp decline in gold prices, as Powell highlighted upward inflation risks and a gradual approach to future rate policy [2]. Geopolitical Risks - The intensification of geopolitical tensions, including Russia's military actions and Israel's increased military operations in Gaza, may provide some support for gold prices, limiting potential declines [3]. Technical Analysis - Key support for gold is identified at $3645, previously a resistance level, while $3700 remains a strong resistance point [4][6]. - If gold prices fall below $3645, further declines to the $3610-$3600 range may occur, while a breakthrough above $3678-$3680 could lead to a challenge of the historical high [6]. Economic Forecasts - The Federal Reserve's latest economic projections indicate a growth forecast of 1.6% for the US economy this year, with core PCE inflation expected at 3.1% [2].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25% during its monetary policy meeting on September 17, 2025, which is characterized as a risk management cut [1][2] - The focus of the Federal Reserve's policy-making is shifting from inflation to employment, with an emphasis on the risks in the labor market influencing the decision to cut rates [2][3] - The updated dot plot indicates a higher likelihood of two additional rate cuts within the year, totaling a 50 basis point reduction, aligning with market expectations [1][2] Group 2 - Short-term gold prices have limited upward potential, with a recent increase of 11.82% in London spot gold prices over the past month, suggesting that the market has already priced in the rate cut [3] - The consistency among Federal Reserve board members regarding the rate cut decision indicates limited political interference from the White House, although potential changes in board member appointments could impact future policy directions [3][4] - The long-term bullish outlook for gold remains intact, supported by the anticipated rate cuts and ongoing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with China increasing its gold reserves for the tenth consecutive month [4]