新京报：特朗普政府的关税政策近期出现戏剧性转向。4月2日，特朗普签署行政令，宣布对全球贸易伙 伴征收额外所谓"对等关税"，但在这项政策生效的4月9日却突然暂缓对部分国家的"对等关税"。如何看 待特朗普这一周内的关税政策变化？ 沃尔夫： 据我观察，在美国国内，许多人对特朗普的关税政策存在分歧。特朗普的政治基本盘（注： 指支持特朗普的选民）认为，这些变化体现了特朗普精明的政治策略。而其他人则指出，此类政策变化 表明特朗普对美国经济问题，或美国针对全球的关税后果缺乏把握。 此外，很多人并不真正了解这项关税政策及其可能产生的影响，但大多数人不希望再经历几年前那样的 通货膨胀，如果他们认为关税政策会导致消费者价格上涨，就会对此表示反对。 新京报：特朗普自称加征关税的目标之一是为美国创造收入来源。现在是接近还是偏离了他的这一目 标？ "我们要输了，我们正生活在一个自欺欺人的国家。"在美国总统特朗普推出所谓"对等关税"之前，美国 知名经济学家理查德·沃尔夫在公开谈及"加征关税对谁有利"的话题时直言，美国对中国加征关税，输 的是美国，但美方却视而不见。 沃尔夫是美国马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校经济学名誉教授、纽约新学院客座教授。 ...

Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - The tariffs imposed by Trump are expected to significantly harm the U.S. economy, with the average tariff rate on all imported goods projected to rise from 2.5% in 2024 to 16.5% in 2025, the highest since 1937, leading to an estimated decline in imports by approximately $800 billion [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the tariffs has caused U.S. companies to delay major investment decisions, reflecting a broader hesitation in both corporate and consumer spending due to unpredictable economic conditions [3][4] - Major technology companies, including Apple, Amazon, Meta, Google, and Microsoft, have seen a combined market value loss of $1 trillion as a result of increased costs and supply chain pressures stemming from the tariffs [3] Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Market Reactions - Investor and consumer confidence has been shaken, leading to a cautious approach in capital investments and spending, which in turn has contributed to a slowdown in economic activity [3] - The likelihood of a recession in the U.S. has increased, with JPMorgan raising the probability of a recession in 2025 from 40% to 60%, and other indicators reflecting a similar trend [5] - The U.S. Treasury market has experienced significant sell-offs, with the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds rising sharply, indicating a loss of confidence in U.S. debt as a safe haven [9] Group 3: Dollar's International Standing - The tariffs are undermining the credibility of the U.S. and diminishing global demand for the dollar, particularly as countries like China may seek to reduce their dollar reserves in favor of alternatives like gold [8] - The dollar's dominance in global trade and finance is being challenged, with its share of global foreign exchange reserves at 58% and 64% of global debt denominated in dollars, raising concerns about its future stability [6][7] - The potential for a shift away from the dollar as the world's reserve currency is increasing, as countries may seek alternatives due to the perceived risks associated with U.S. economic policies and political actions [10]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has agreed to exempt certain electronic products, including smartphones, computers, and chips, from "reciprocal tariffs" [2][5] - This exemption applies to products entering the U.S. after April 5, and companies can seek refunds for tariffs already paid [5] - Analysts suggest this marks a significant shift in U.S. tariff policy, indicating a "180-degree turn" [3][6] Group 2 - The U.S. bond market has experienced a historic sell-off, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising nearly 50 basis points, the largest increase since 2001 [10] - The sell-off has led to a significant outflow from U.S. stocks and bonds, with funds moving towards gold as a safe haven, pushing gold prices above $3200 per ounce [10] - Concerns about a potential recession in the U.S. have been raised by financial leaders, including BlackRock's CEO [12] Group 3 - The recent tariff exemptions are seen as beneficial for companies within the Nvidia and Apple supply chains, potentially alleviating previous concerns about export tariffs [16] - Analysts believe that the removal of tariff worries could lead to a recovery in earnings per share (EPS) for the Apple supply chain [16] - Investment considerations for companies like Luxshare Precision and GoerTek include assessing their valuation and the impact of institutional buying during recent market volatility [17][18]

校对：王朝全 肯塔基州共和党联邦参议员兰德·保罗日前在参议院发言时，批评联邦政府以贸易逆差构成"国家紧急状 态"为由征收关税。他强调，国会必须重新行使宪法赋予的关税及对外贸易监管权。 来源：政事儿 责编： 刘珺宇 央视新闻4月12日消息，美国前副总统迈克·彭斯日前表示，他对本届美国政府大规模加征关税措施感到担 忧，称这种做法是"失策"。 彭斯曾在特朗普第一任期担任副总统。他9日接受美国《国会山报》采访时说，尽管美国政府已撤回部分 对盟友施加的最严厉关税措施，但其激进的关税政策仍可能给共和党中期选举带来潜在风险。 彭斯是批评关税政策的又一名共和党重要人物。此前，关税政策已在共和党内部遭到多名国会议员批评。 得克萨斯州共和党联邦参议员特德·克鲁兹日前接受福克斯新闻台采访时说，关税本质上是对消费者征税， 他不赞成对美国消费者大幅加税。克鲁兹在其播客节目中表示，若关税政策长期实施，可能推高通胀、损 害就业增长，甚至可能导致美国经济衰退。 百万用户都在看 刚刚，见证历史！金价，暴涨 历史罕见！美元资产，大抛售！ 特朗普，操纵市场？美股，盘前走低！ A股，大反攻！见证历史：两天买入超1780亿！ 违法和不良信息举报电话： ...

美国总统特朗普扔出的所谓"对等关税"政策，如回旋镖一样，正中自己的软肋：债务。 本周，美国市场出现罕见一幕：面对美股巨幅波动，传统的避险资产美债和美元也不避险了。一周来看，10年期和30年期美债收益率分别累涨50.6和48.7个 基点。其中，10年期美债收益率创下2001年以来最大单周涨幅。 面对美国股市、债市和汇市"三杀"局面 ，美联储才终于打破沉默向市场释放安抚信号。 01 暗示要救市 特朗普关税风暴下，美联储到底会不会出手？ 当地时间 4 月 11 日，波士顿联邦储备银行行长苏珊 ・ 柯林斯的一番讲话，似乎给出了一些答案。 她表示，如果有必要，美联储已准备好动用工具来稳定金融市场。尽管当前市场状况运作良好，柯林斯强调，一旦出现流动性紧张或市场运行问题， 联储将做好干预准备。 柯林斯的这番讲话正值市场因特朗普总统的贸易战和对经济衰退的担忧而动荡之际。在贸易战的冲击下，美国企业的盈利预期下降，经济增长面临压 力，投资者对经济衰退的担忧日益加剧。在这种情况下，美联储的表态显得尤为重要。 柯林斯指出，尽管美联储会考虑采取紧急措施，但降息不会是应对流动性问题的首选方式，联储还有其他常设机制可用于支持市场运作。这表 ...

内部矛盾愈演愈烈。 当地时间4月11日，针对特朗普政府考虑削减太空预算问题，美国太空探索技术公司（SpaceX）创始人、特 朗普政府的"大红人"马斯克在社交平台上发文称"此举令人担忧"，表达了不满。 与此同时，美国总统特朗普第二任期的首次年度体检备受关注。特朗普周五表示，在完成重返总统职位以来的 首次年度体检后，他感觉"状态非常好"，并预计体检结果将于周日（13日）公布。 值得注意的是，受特朗普的关税政策影响，美国消费者信心和通胀预期急剧恶化。密歇根大学最新发布的权威 调查显示，由于预期通胀水平攀升至1981年以来最高点，4月消费者信心恶化程度远超预期。部分华尔街高管 和经济学家预测，美国未来一年可能陷入衰退。 马斯克公开表达不满 4月12日，参考消息援引《日本经济新闻》网站报道，特朗普政府正考虑将2026年度美国国家航空航天局 （NASA）科学预算削减一半。该科学预算主要用于望远镜开发等领域，预计目前的73亿美元预算将减至39 亿美元。马斯克11日在社交平台上发文称"此举令人担忧"，表达了不满。 美国《华盛顿邮报》等多家媒体11日报道，天体物理学预算将从15亿美元减到4.87亿美元，行星科学预算将 从27亿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing inflation risks in the U.S. due to tariff policies and the potential economic recession, highlighting the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve in balancing inflation control and economic growth [16][27][30]. Market Overview - U.S. stock indices experienced fluctuations, with the Nasdaq composite index showing a significant decline [1]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached a high of 4.5%, marking the highest level since February [11][12]. - The Federal Reserve's total assets increased by nearly $4 billion, indicating a potential shift towards quantitative easing [9]. Inflation and Economic Indicators - The U.S. CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year in March, lower than market expectations, while core CPI increased by 2.8%, the smallest rise since March 2021 [18]. - The article notes that the March CPI may represent the lowest point for the year, with future inflation risks heightened by tariff-induced price increases [19][21]. Tariff Impact - The article emphasizes that U.S. tariff policies are likely to exacerbate inflation pressures and economic risks, with predictions of consumer prices rising significantly due to tariffs [16][22]. - Analysts predict that food prices will be among the first to increase as a result of tariffs, with broader consumer goods expected to follow [22]. Economic Growth Projections - The article cites a reduction in GDP growth forecasts for the U.S., with expectations of a slowdown in non-farm employment growth and an increase in unemployment rates [28]. - The risk of a recession in the U.S. is estimated to be between 30% to 35%, with economic expansion expected to continue but at a much lower rate [28]. Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve faces a challenging situation, needing to manage inflation without triggering a recession, with concerns that early rate cuts could lead to uncontrolled inflation [26][30]. - The article highlights the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's monetary policy path, which will depend on the impact of tariffs and other economic indicators [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy effect of boosting consumption is gradually emerging. In March, the decline in CPI and PPI narrowed, and the core CPI rebounded significantly, showing positive price changes [1][7]. - Short - term bearish on oil prices, but also pay attention to the impact of low oil prices on US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran [2][13]. - Gold remains strong due to policy and market uncertainties, and the market is concerned about the future of Trump's tariff policies and other factors [3][21]. - For A - shares, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish, focusing on policies to boost the domestic economy [4][5][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Main News Concerns of the Day International News - The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that the EU agreed to suspend counter - measures against US tariffs for 90 days, and preparations for further counter - measures are ongoing [6]. Domestic News - In March, CPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year, with the decline significantly narrowing; PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year. The core CPI rose by 0.5% year - on - year, showing positive price changes [1][7]. Industry News - China will firmly promote high - level opening - up, help foreign - trade enterprises expand the domestic market, and carry out activities such as the "China Tour of High - quality Foreign - trade Products" [8]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 dropped by 3.46%, the European STOXX 50 rose by 3.50%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose by 0.61%, the US dollar index fell by 1.97%, ICE Brent crude oil dropped by 3.53%, London gold rose by 3.02%, London silver rose by 0.78%, and other commodities also had corresponding price changes [9]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: After a sharp drop in US stocks and a slight decline in A50, the stock index rebounded significantly. The "stabilizing the market" combination of policies since April 7 has boosted market confidence. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish, focusing on domestic economic - boosting policies [4][5][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year Treasury bond yield declined. The central bank's net cash withdrawal, the slowdown of US inflation, and the possibility of the central bank's policy adjustment are factors affecting Treasury bonds. Short - term Treasury bond futures prices are expected to be supported, while long - term prices may fluctuate more [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC rose slightly at night. The US Energy Information Administration lowered the global oil demand forecast. Trump's tariff policy led to concerns about economic growth. Short - term bearish on oil prices, but also pay attention to the impact on US sanctions [2][13]. - **Methanol**: Similar to crude oil, affected by Trump's tariff policy and the reduction of global oil demand forecast, short - term bearish on oil prices [14]. - **Rubber**: The market is still concerned about tariffs. The demand outlook is poor, but the supply side has some support. The inventory in Qingdao is increasing, and the rubber price is expected to be weak [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Affected by US tariffs and the increase in crude oil supply, the international oil price decline dragged down polyolefins. Pay attention to cost and demand changes [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. Soda ash futures were in a narrow - range consolidation, with weak supply - demand fundamentals [18]. - **PTA**: The PTA futures price is weak due to insufficient demand and cost support [19]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol futures price is under pressure due to rising inventory and limited improvement in downstream orders [20]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold remains strong due to policy and market uncertainties, and the market is concerned about Trump's tariff policies and other factors [3][21]. - **Copper**: The copper price may fluctuate widely in the short term, affected by US tariffs, and pay attention to factors such as exchange rates and inventory [22]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price may fluctuate widely in the short term, affected by US tariffs, and pay attention to factors such as exchange rates and smelting output [23]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price rose slightly. The supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to tariff uncertainties [24]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price may fluctuate in the short term due to the uncertainty of nickel ore supply and other factors [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, demand increased, and inventory increased. The lithium price may decline further if production is not adjusted [26]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The impact of tariffs on black commodities is limited. Iron ore demand has support, but there is medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [27]. - **Steel**: The direct impact of tariffs on steel is limited, but emotions may suppress the price. Pay attention to the resumption of production by steel mills and demand recovery [28]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke are weak. Pay attention to the digestion of upstream inventory and the performance of terminal demand [29]. - **Ferroalloys**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are affected by cost and demand. Pay attention to steel procurement and inventory digestion [30][31]. Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: The night - trading prices of soybean and palm oil were strongly volatile. The March palm oil supply - demand report in Malaysia had a neutral impact, and the rise in oil prices will boost the oils and fats sector [32]. - **Protein Meal**: The night - trading prices of soybean and rapeseed meal were weakly volatile. The far - month soybean meal price has support due to possible changes in US soybean planting area and import volume [33]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Affected by Trump's tariff policy, the market risk preference rebounded. The traditional peak season of the European line is uncertain, and it is necessary to pay attention to shipping company's capacity control and price increases [34].

Group 1: Macro Overview - The U.S. March CPI and core CPI both fell below expectations, with the overall CPI at 2.4%, lower than the expected 2.6% and previous 2.8%[2] - Core CPI dropped to 2.8%, below the expected 3.0% and previous 3.1%, marking the first time it fell below 3% since April 2021[2] - Following the CPI release, the market adjusted its expectations for interest rate cuts, with a 50% probability of four cuts and a 100% probability of a cut in June[4] Group 2: Market Reactions - Post-CPI release, major U.S. stock indices fell: S&P 500 down 3.5%, Nasdaq down 4.3%, and Dow Jones down 2.5%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 8.0 basis points to 4.42%[4] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 2.0% to 100.9, while spot gold increased by 3.0% to $3175.0 per ounce[4] Group 3: Inflation Components - Food prices increased by 0.4% month-on-month, while energy prices fell sharply by -2.4%[3] - Core goods prices decreased by -0.1%, with notable declines in used car and healthcare product prices[3] - "Super core inflation," excluding food, energy, and housing, was -0.04%, down from 0.08% in February[3] Group 4: Economic Concerns - Short-term market concerns center around a liquidity crisis, with current conditions resembling those during the 2020 pandemic[5] - Long-term concerns focus on potential global economic recession due to tariffs, with significant uncertainty regarding their impact on GDP[5] - The next few months are critical for observing economic data and tariff negotiations, with high volatility expected in asset prices[5]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The conference call discusses the impact of U.S. tariff policies on global trade dynamics, particularly focusing on the U.S.-China trade relationship and its implications for various countries including Vietnam, Japan, and Canada [2][3][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - **U.S. Tariff Policy Changes**: The Trump administration's tariff policies differ fundamentally from previous U.S. administrations, focusing on altering the distribution system rather than enhancing efficiency through globalization [2][11]. - **Global Trade Responses**: Countries are responding to the tariff war with three strategies: hardline (e.g., China raising tariffs to 84%), moderate (e.g., EU's restrained actions), and compromise (e.g., Vietnam and Japan seeking negotiations) [2][5]. - **Economic Risks in the U.S.**: The U.S. economy faces risks from declining discretionary consumer demand and rising inflation, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a neutral stance, contributing to market volatility and increasing recession or stagflation uncertainties [2][8]. - **Impact on China’s Economy**: An increase of 1% in U.S. tariffs could lead to a 1.7% decline in Chinese exports to the U.S., potentially resulting in a GDP drop of 1-1.5% if tariffs reach 84% [2][16]. - **Market Volatility**: Global financial markets are experiencing significant volatility, with U.S. stocks and commodities declining sharply, while precious metals show strength but with notable fluctuations [2][17]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Investment Strategies**: A "barbell" strategy is recommended for RMB asset allocation, focusing on dividends and technology while also considering high-dividend stability and new energy development [2][29]. - **Long-term Economic Changes**: The current macroeconomic paradigm shift is affecting asset pricing, with a need for new pricing anchors like U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index [2][18]. - **Potential for Commodity Markets**: The outlook for the commodity market, particularly for non-ferrous metals, is positive, while agricultural products are expected to remain weak in the U.S. but strong domestically [2][20]. - **Japan's Economic Position**: Japan is highlighted as a key non-U.S. market due to its potential for growth and the Bank of Japan's discussions on interest rate hikes, which could support domestic demand [2][26]. - **Future Risks and Market Reversal Conditions**: Market reversals may occur due to significant monetary easing or corrections in pessimistic expectations, with current conditions suggesting limited downside for commodities due to already low prices [2][23]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the implications of U.S. tariff policies, global economic risks, and strategic investment opportunities.