| 摘要 | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收低，受美盘铜大幅回落影响。美国仅对铜材加征50%关税，但 精炼铜豁免，出乎市场预期。目前精矿加工费总体低位，考验冶炼产量。根 | | | | 据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 | 可能短期区 | | 铜 | 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， | 间波动 | | | 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收低。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 | | | 锌 | 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。今 | 可能短期宽 | | | 年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波动，关注美 | 幅波动 | | | 国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产量等因素变化。 | | | | 分析师：李野 | | | | 从业资格号：F0285 ...

Report on Stock Index Futures Spread Core View - Presents the latest values, historical quantiles, and daily changes of various spread indicators for stock index futures including IF, IH, IC, and IM on July 31, 2025 [1]. Summary by Category - **Futures - Spot Spread**: IF's futures - spot spread is -14.84, with a 32.30% change from the previous day and a 28.70% historical 1 - year quantile; IH's is 0.65, IC's is -99.29, and IM's is -114.28 [1]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Different inter - delivery spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented, showing their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratio**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc. are provided, along with their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [1]. Report on Bond Futures Spread Core View - Displays the latest values, changes, and historical quantiles of indicators like IRR, basis, inter - delivery spread, and cross - variety spread for bond futures on July 31, 2025 [2]. Summary by Category - **IRR**: For example, the IRR of a certain bond on July 30, 2025, is 1.5292, with a 0.0063 change from the previous day and a 21.20% historical quantile [2]. - **Basis**: TF's basis on July 30, 2025, is 0.0007, T's is 1.4179, etc. [2]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: TS, TF, T, and TL's inter - delivery spreads are presented, including their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. - **Cross - variety Spread**: Spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc. are provided, along with their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. Report on Precious Metals Futures - Spot Core View - Compares the closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metals futures, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions on July 30, 2025 [4]. Summary by Category - **Futures Closing Price**: Domestic AU2510 contract closed at 773.78 yuan/gram on July 30, 2025, with a 0.30% increase; COMEX gold closed at 3327.90 dollars/ounce, up 0.08% [4]. - **Spot Price**: London gold was at 3275.05 dollars/ounce on July 30, 2025, down 1.53%; Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 769.48 yuan/gram, up 0.30% [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is -4.30, with a -0.05 change and an 8.40% historical 1 - year quantile [4]. - **Ratio**: The ratio of COMEX gold to silver is 89.52, up 3.34% [4]. - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.38, up 0.9% [4]. - **Inventory and Position**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold increased by 7.03% to 33462 [4]. Report on Container Shipping Industry Futures - Spot Core View - Analyzes the spot quotes, container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry on July 31, 2025 [6]. Summary by Category - **Spot Quote**: The 6 - week future freight reference from Shanghai to Europe for MAERSK is 3003 dollars/FEU on July 31, 2025, down 0.06% [6]. - **Container Shipping Index**: SCFIS (European route) settled at 2316.56 on July 28, 2025, down 3.50% from July 21 [6]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: EC2602 contract closed at 1532.0 points on July 30, 2025, up 0.70%; the basis of the main contract is 802.4, down 1.15% [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply remains unchanged at 3273.16 FTEU on July 31, 2025; the port punctuality rate in Shanghai is 34.57, down 18.66% [6]. Report on Trading Calendar Core View - Lists overseas and domestic economic indicators and financial events on July 31, 2025 [7]. Summary by Category - **Overseas Data/Info**: At 2:00, the US Federal Reserve announced the interest rate decision (upper limit) and the FOMC released the interest rate resolution; at 17:00, the eurozone announced the June unemployment rate [7]. - **Domestic Data/Info**: At 9:30, China announced the July official manufacturing PMI; at 15:00, SMM announced the total social inventory of electrolytic copper [7].

Group 1: Futures Contract Information - BU main contract price on 7/30 was 3650, with a daily change of 31 and a weekly change of 41 [4][20] - BU06 price on 7/30 was 3438, with a daily change of 22 and a weekly change of 53 [4][20] - BU09 price on 7/30 was 3650, with a daily change of 31 and a weekly change of 41 [4][20] - BU12 price on 7/30 was 3555, with a daily change of 40 and a weekly change of 72 [4][20] - BU03 price on 7/30 was 3469, with a daily change of 25 and a weekly change of 79 [4][20] Group 2: Trading Volume and Open Interest - Trading volume on 7/30 was 350130, with a daily change of 23001 and a weekly change of 4870 [4][20] - Open interest on 7/30 was 480556, with a daily change of 35507 and a weekly change of 19993 [4][20] Group 3: Market Low - end Prices - Shandong market low - end price on 7/30 was 3600, with a daily change of 20 and a weekly change of - 20 [4][20] - East China market low - end price on 7/30 was 3670, with no daily or weekly change [4][20] - South China market low - end price on 7/30 was 3550, with no daily or weekly change [4][20] - North China market low - end price on 7/30 was 3720, with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of - 10 [4][20] - Northeast market low - end price on 7/30 was 3850, with no daily change and a weekly change of - 50 [4][20] Group 4: Spot Prices - Jingbo (Haiyun) spot price on 7/30 was 3710, with a daily change of 20 and no weekly change [4][20] - Mismo spot price on 7/30 was 3700, with a daily change of 40 and a weekly change of - 10 [4][20] - Xinhai (Xin Bohai) spot price on 7/30 was 3720, with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of - 10 [4][20] Group 5: Basis and Monthly Spread - Shandong - East China basis on 7/30 was - 70, with a daily change of 20 and a weekly change of - 20 [4][20] - Shandong - Northeast basis on 7/30 was - 250, with a daily change of 20 and a weekly change of 30 [4][20] - East China - South China basis on 7/30 was 120, with no daily or weekly change [4][20] - Shandong basis on 7/30 was - 50, with a daily change of - 11 and a weekly change of - 61 [4][20] - East China basis on 7/30 was 20, with a daily change of - 31 and a weekly change of - 41 [4][20] - South China basis on 7/30 was - 100, with a daily change of - 31 and a weekly change of - 41 [4][20] - 03 - 06 spread on 7/30 was 31, with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of 26 [4][20] - 06 - 09 spread on 7/30 was - 212, with a daily change of - 9 and a weekly change of 12 [4][20] - 09 - 12 spread on 7/30 was 125, with a daily change of - 9 and a weekly change of - 31 [4][20] - 12 - 03 spread on 7/30 was 56, with a daily change of 15 and a weekly change of - 7 [4][20] - Continuous first - continuous second spread on 7/30 was 14, with a daily change of - 7 and a weekly change of - 27 [4][20] Group 6: Crack Spread and Profit - Asphalt Brent crack spread on 7/30 was - 199, with a daily change of - 109 and a weekly change of - 230 [4][20] - Asphalt MRE profit on 7/30 was - 249, with a daily change of - 99 and a weekly change of - 208 [4][20] - Ordinary refinery comprehensive profit on 7/30 was 314, with a daily change of - 79 and a weekly change of - 132 [4][20] - MRE - type refinery comprehensive profit on 7/30 was - 90, with a daily change of - 84 and a weekly change of - 162 [4][20] - Import profit (South Korea - East China) on 7/30 was - 153, with no daily or weekly change [4][20] - Import profit (Singapore - South China) on 7/30 was - 1005, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of - 1 [4][20] Group 7: Related Prices - Shandong gasoline market price on 7/30 was 7851 [21] - Shandong diesel market price on 7/30 was 6731 [21] - Shandong residue oil market price on 7/30 was 3640 [21]

Core Viewpoint - Options are a unique derivative instrument with a price that should have a certain correlation with the underlying asset's price, and the expiration mechanism creates an "invisible gravity" that pulls the option price back to its theoretical price based on the underlying asset's price [1] Group 1: Principles of Exercise Arbitrage - Exercise arbitrage is a special type of arbitrage that occurs when options are nearing expiration, as their prices become closer to the actual price of the underlying asset [2] - Basis refers to the price difference between synthetic futures and spot prices, where synthetic futures can be created using a combination of call and put options [3] Group 2: Opportunities for Exercise Arbitrage - In the case of undervalued in-the-money call options, the option's strike price is lower than the underlying asset's price, creating an opportunity to buy the call option and sell a higher strike put option to construct a synthetic futures long position [5] - Conversely, in the case of overvalued in-the-money put options, the option's strike price is higher than the underlying asset's price, allowing for the purchase of a high strike call option and the sale of the put option to create a synthetic futures long position [5] Group 3: Operation Process of Exercise Arbitrage - When a significant basis exists, the process begins by going long on synthetic futures through the purchase of call options and the sale of put options [6] - Simultaneously, short selling the underlying asset (e.g., ETF) locks in the risk of price fluctuations during the exercise period [7] - Upon exercise, if the synthetic futures have a low strike price, the bought call option is exercised; if it has a high strike price, the sold put option is exercised [8] - After the exercise concludes, the trader receives the underlying asset to cover the short position [9] Group 4: Key Considerations for Exercise Arbitrage - The key to exercise arbitrage is to observe the basis, as a larger synthetic futures discount increases potential arbitrage profits [10] - Risk management is crucial, achieved by short selling the underlying asset to lock in risks during the exercise period [10] - Patience is required until the exercise concludes before closing positions to realize profits [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The driving force of the 91 spread may come from the SR2601 contract. The domestic situation is relatively strong, but the spot price is higher than the cost of out-of-quota imports, with no valuation advantage. The import volume in Q3 2025 is expected to increase significantly quarter-on-quarter, and the spot price will remain stable. Currently, the basis of the SR2509 contract is at a low level compared to previous years, with limited potential for imagination. The SR2601 contract is priced based on expectations, anchored to domestic production costs and out-of-quota import costs, and is also affected by the anti-involution sentiment. From late June onwards, driven by the anti-involution sentiment, the prices of industrial products such as polysilicon and coking coal have risen significantly, and the Zhengzhou sugar price has followed suit. In addition, the market expects that the sugar yield in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar season is likely to decline, and the production cost will increase, supporting the price of the SR2601 contract. From August to September, the spot price is expected to remain stable, the basis of the SR2509 contract has limited potential for imagination, and the driving force of the 91 spread depends on the SR2601 contract [1][24] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Zhengzhou Sugar 91 Spread First Strengthened and Then Weakened - Since June 2025, the spread between the SR2509 contract and the SR2601 contract (hereinafter referred to as the 91 spread) has first strengthened and then weakened, generally fluctuating within the range of 100 - 200 yuan/ton, with a relatively small fluctuation range [4] - From June to July, the 91 spread strengthened, mainly because the price of the SR2509 contract was stronger. After the expiration of the New York raw sugar 2507 contract, the New York raw sugar price bottomed out and rebounded, and the suppression of the weak expectation on the SR2509 contract weakened. As the SR2507 contract expired, the SR2509 contract became the near-term contract, and as the delivery month approached, the pricing gradually shifted from expectation-based pricing to reality-based pricing. Against the background of a high basis, the price of the SR2509 contract was relatively stronger than that of the SR2601 contract [4] - Since July, the 91 spread has weakened, and the price of the SR2601 contract has been relatively stronger. Starting from July, the anti-involution sentiment in the domestic market has swept through the commodity market, and the prices of agricultural products have also been affected by this sentiment. Most of the funds trading on the macro level choose the far-term contracts. Fundamentally, the delivery of the SR2509 contract is still affected by the beet sugar warehouse receipts. On the one hand, the basis of the SR2509 contract has been repaired to a low level in recent years; on the other hand, the basis before the expiration of the SR2507 contract was still relatively high, so the room for the basis of the SR2509 contract to continue to weaken is limited [4] 2. The Basis of the SR2509 Contract is at a Low Level Compared to Previous Years, with Limited Potential for Imagination 2.1 Pricing Benchmark of the SR2509 Contract and the SR2601 Contract - The price of the SR2509 contract first declined and then increased. Since May 2025, the spot price in Nanning has fluctuated downward, with a fluctuation range of 6000 - 6200 yuan/ton. The SR2509 contract first declined and then increased, with a fluctuation range of 5600 - 5930 yuan/ton. The fluctuation range of the spot price is smaller than that of the futures price, and the basis fluctuates within the range of 150 - 400 yuan/ton, showing an overall inverted "V" shape. Since mid-June 2025, the basis of the SR2509 contract has weakened significantly. Currently, the basis of the SR2509 contract is at a low level compared to previous years, and its absolute level is lower than that before the expiration of the SR2507 contract, with limited potential for imagination [8] - The basis before the expiration of the SR2507 contract was relatively high. Since May 2025, the price of the SR2507 contract has fluctuated downward, and the basis has fluctuated within the range of 200 - 350 yuan/ton. The average basis in June was 282 yuan/ton, and the average basis in July was 279 yuan/ton. The basis before expiration was generally at a relatively high level. It is believed that the high basis before the expiration of the SR2507 contract is mainly related to the high proportion of beet sugar warehouse receipts [10] - The warehouse receipts mainly consist of beet sugar and Yunnan sugar. On July 29, 2025, the number of registered warehouse receipts for Zhengzhou sugar was 19,746. Among them, there were about 197 warehouse receipts for cane sugar from the Guangxi production area, about 2,324 warehouse receipts for cane sugar from the Yunnan production area, 1,824 warehouse receipts for credit from Yunnan factories, 5,000 warehouse receipts for credit from processing sugar factories in the sales area, about 8,706 warehouse receipts for beet sugar in the sales area, and 1,695 warehouse receipts for credit from beet sugar factories in the sales area. The warehouse receipts likely to be delivered are probably the beet sugar in the sales area and the cane sugar from the Yunnan production area, with a quantity of around 14,500 (including the possible warehouse receipts for credit from factories) [12] - The SR2601 contract is priced based on expectations, and its price increase benefits from the anti-involution sentiment. The pricing of the SR2601 contract is anchored to domestic production costs and out-of-quota import costs, and is also affected by the anti-involution sentiment. Since late June, driven by the anti-involution sentiment, the prices of industrial products such as polysilicon and coking coal have risen significantly, and the Zhengzhou sugar price has followed suit. Fundamentally, after the expiration of the New York raw sugar July contract, the news of Pakistan's import of 500,000 tons of sugar was positive. The markets in Brazil and India lacked obvious marginal information to drive prices, and the prices generally stabilized and then fluctuated within a range, with the out-of-quota import cost remaining stable [15] 2.2 International and Domestic Market Fundamentals - In the 24/25 sugar season, the global sugar supply was in a shortage of 5.47 million tons. In May 2025, the ISO released a report on the global sugar market for the 24/25 year, with a production of 174.80 million tons and a consumption of 180.26 million tons, resulting in a global supply shortage of 5.47 million tons, compared with a previous forecast of a shortage of 4.88 million tons (forecast in February 2025). In terms of the quantity of the supply shortage, the shortage is at a relatively high level in history, indicating that the overall market supply situation is relatively tight. In the 24/25 sugar season, Conab estimated that the sugar production in Brazil would be 44.12 million tons (-1.56 million tons), and Nfcsf estimated that the sugar production in India would be 26.11 million tons (-5.79 million tons) [18] - In the 25/26 sugar season, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus. In the 25/26 sugar season, the USDA estimated that the global sugar production would be 189.32 million tons, with a surplus of 11.4 million tons. Datagro estimated a global surplus of 1.53 million tons, GreenPool estimated a surplus of 1.15 million tons, Louis Dreyfus estimated a surplus of 0.4 million tons, and Alvean estimated a surplus of 0.4 million tons [20] - The core of the domestic sugar market trading is still the total import volume and structure. According to CAOC data, in the 24/25 sugar season, China's sugar production was 11.16 million tons (+1.2 million tons), consumption was 15.8 million tons, and imports were 5 million tons. In the 25/26 sugar season, China's sugar production is expected to be 11.2 million tons (+0.04 million tons), consumption is expected to be 15.9 million tons (+0.1 million tons), and imports are expected to be 5 million tons. In Q2 2025, the Guangxi production area was threatened by drought, but the total production data from CAOC did not change significantly. In Q1 2025, the policy tightened the import of syrup and premixed powder, and in May 2025, the supervision of 4 measures of the special account book management policy for commodities was further refined. Even if the in-quota import volume remains the same, with the decrease in the import volume of syrup and premixed powder, the market needs out-of-quota imports to fill the supply gap, and the pricing anchor point switches to the out-of-quota import cost. The total import volume and structure are the core of the market trading [20] 3. The Driving Force of the 91 Spread May Come from the SR2601 Contract - In the international market, the situation is one of strong reality and weak expectation. In terms of driving factors, in the 24/25 sugar season, the short-term supply in the global market is relatively large, and the reality is still strong; in the 25/26 sugar season, the global sugar market is expected to increase production and accumulate inventory, with a weak expectation [22] - In terms of valuation, although the price of New York raw sugar has significantly declined from its high level, its valuation is still relatively high compared to other major agricultural products [23] - In the domestic market, the pricing anchor point is the out-of-quota import cost. Whether in the 24/25 sugar season or the 25/26 sugar season, even if the in-quota import volume remains the same, with the decrease in the import volume of syrup and premixed powder, the market needs out-of-quota imports to fill the supply gap, and the pricing anchor point switches to the out-of-quota import cost. The total import volume and structure are the core of the market trading [23] - The driving force of the 91 spread depends on the SR2601 contract. The domestic situation is relatively strong, but the spot price is higher than the cost of out-of-quota imports, with no valuation advantage. The import volume in Q3 2025 is expected to increase significantly quarter-on-quarter, and the spot price will remain stable. Currently, the basis of the SR2509 contract is at a low level compared to previous years, with limited potential for imagination. The SR2601 contract is priced based on expectations, anchored to domestic production costs and out-of-quota import costs, and is also affected by the anti-involution sentiment. From late June onwards, driven by the anti-involution sentiment, the prices of industrial products such as polysilicon and coking coal have risen significantly, and the Zhengzhou sugar price has followed suit. In addition, the market expects that the sugar yield in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar season is likely to decline, and the production cost will increase, supporting the price of the SR2601 contract. From August to September, the spot price is expected to remain stable, the basis of the SR2509 contract has limited potential for imagination, and the driving force of the 91 spread depends on the SR2601 contract [24]

Report Overview - The report is a daily data report on sugar, covering domestic and international market data and analysis [2][3][4] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Internationally, Brazil's sugar production decline in the second half of June exceeded expectations. If the sugar - alcohol ratio continues to decrease, Brazil's sugar output may fall short of expectations [4] - Domestically, market demand is weak. Low inventory supports Guangxi's spot prices, but the entry of processed sugar into the market is putting pressure on prices. Considering the expected increase in imports, the domestic supply - demand situation is expected to gradually ease, and a bearish view is maintained after a rebound [4] Data Summary Domestic Spot Prices - In Guangxi, the price in Nanning Warehouse is 6120 yuan/ton, with no change; in Yunnan, the price in Kunming is 5915 yuan/ton, in Dali is 5800 yuan/ton, both unchanged; in Shandong, the price in Rizhao is 6135 yuan/ton, also unchanged [3] Futures Prices - SR09 is 5867 yuan/ton, up 22; SR01 is 5731 yuan/ton, up 29; SR09 - 01 is 136, down 7 [3] Exchange Rates and International Futures - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate is 7.1975, up 0.0120; the Brazilian real - RMB exchange rate is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the Indian rupee - RMB exchange rate is 0.084, down 0.0004 [3] - The ICE raw sugar主力 is 16.43, unchanged; the London white sugar主力 is 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil主力 is 69.6, unchanged [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range, and in the medium - to long - term, the methanol spot market may shift from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - On July 29, 2025, prices of晋城无烟煤, 内蒙动力煤, 川渝液化气, 内蒙 methanol, 中国 methanol, 东南亚 methanol, 西北欧 methanol, and 美国 methanol remained unchanged compared to July 28, 2025. The price of 山东 methanol decreased by 40 to 2260, and the price of international natural gas in Taicang dropped by 0.03 to 10.99, while its volume increased by 5 to 2390. The price of 冰蜡酸 increased by 60 to 2250, and the price of MTBE decreased by 30 to 4950 [1] Supply - On July 29, 2025, domestic methanol production increased by 500 to 278185, domestic methanol operating rate rose by 0.15 to 86.12, and international methanol operating rate decreased by 1.92 to 69.71 compared to July 28, 2025. The arrival volume at the port remained unchanged at 43.04 [1] Inventory - On July 29, 2025, both enterprise inventory and port inventory of methanol remained unchanged at 352340 and 790200 respectively compared to July 28, 2025 [1] Demand - On July 29, 2025, the order backlog of methanol remained unchanged at 243119 compared to July 28, 2025. The operating rates of MTO, 二甲醚, 甲醛, 醋酸, 氯化物, and MTBE all remained unchanged [1] Associated Product Prices - On July 29, 2025, the price of 甲醛(山东) and 二甲醚 remained unchanged, the price of 冰蜡酸 increased by 60 to 2250, the price of 甲烷氯化物 remained unchanged, and the price of MTBE decreased by 30 to 4950 compared to July 28, 2025 [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur cracking fluctuated, the near - month spread declined and returned to the historical low for the same period. EW continued to weaken and rebounded on Friday. The 380 9 - 10 spread weakened to around $2, the 380 basis continued to weaken to -$7.25/ton, and the FU09 internal - external spread rebounded and then fluctuated [5]. - The Singapore 0.5 cracking fluctuated downward, the 9 - 10 spread weakened to around $2.75, the LU internal - external spread weakened, and the 09 internal - external spread dropped to $0.7 [6]. - This week, Singapore's on - land inventory increased slightly, floating storage decreased, the near - month spread was under pressure, Saudi Arabia's shipments increased month - on - month, imports from Saudi Arabia also increased, and the UAE's shipments decreased significantly month - on - month. Egypt's net imports decreased slightly month - on - month but remained at a seasonal high [6]. - High - sulfur supply and demand are still in the peak season. After the 380 cracking declined, it fluctuated. Currently, the EW arbitrage window is theoretically open, and the internal - external spread repaired and then fluctuated [6]. - This week, the hi - 5 spread fluctuated after a slight decline. The domestic LU internal - external spread decline was realized, and the FU - LU internal - external valuation was partially realized. Attention should be paid to whether there is support for the 380 near - month contract [6]. Group 3: Summary According to Data Rotterdam Market - From July 23 to July 29, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased by $6.61, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased by $5.21, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 decreased by $0.07, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased by $1.78, Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1 increased by $3.43, LGO - Brent M1 decreased by $2.03, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 decreased by $1.40 [4]. Singapore Market - For Singapore fuel oil swaps from July 23 to July 29, 2025, Singapore 380cst M1 had a certain price change, Singapore 180cst M1 also changed, Singapore VLSFO M1 changed, and Singapore GO M1 changed. The Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 and Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 also had corresponding changes [4]. - For Singapore fuel oil spot, from July 23 to July 29, 2025, FOB 380cst increased by $5.89, FOB VLSFO increased by $8.44, and the 380 basis decreased by $0.05 [4]. Domestic Market - For domestic FU from July 23 to July 29, 2025, FU 01 increased by 40, FU 05 increased by 35, FU 09 increased by 48, FU 01 - 05 increased by 5, FU 05 - 09 decreased by 13, and FU 09 - 01 increased by 8 [4]. - For domestic LU from July 23 to July 29, 2025, LU 01 increased by 69, LU 05 increased by 48, LU 09 increased by 88, LU 01 - 05 increased by 21, LU 05 - 09 decreased by 40, and LU 09 - 01 increased by 19 [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - The closing prices of BU main contract, BU09, and BU12 on July 29 were 3619, 3619, and 3485 respectively, with daily changes of 50, 50, and 44, and interval changes of -38, -38, and 0 [4]. - The closing prices of BU06 and BU03 on July 29 were 3416 and 3444 respectively, with daily changes of 38 and 16, and interval changes of 10 and 16 [4]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume on July 29 was 327,129, a daily decrease of 16,850 and an interval increase of 117,100 [4]. - The open interest on July 29 was 445,049, a daily increase of 8 and an interval decrease of 34,604 [4]. Spot Prices - The low - end prices in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, and Northeast markets on July 29 were 3580, 3670, 3550, 3710, and 3850 respectively, with daily changes of 0, 0, 0, 10, and 0, and interval changes of -60, 0, -10, -30, and -50 [4]. - The prices of Jingbo (Haiyun), Runo, and Xinhai (Xin Bohai) on July 29 were 3690, 3660, and 3710 respectively, with daily changes of 0, -10, and 10, and interval changes of -30, -50, and -30 [4]. Basis and Monthly Spread - The basis of Shandong, East China, and South China on July 29 were -39, 51, and -69 respectively, with daily changes of -50, -50, and -50, and interval changes of -22, 38, and 28 [4]. - The monthly spreads of 03 - 06, 06 - 09, 09 - 12, and 12 - 03 on July 29 were 28, -203, 134, and 41 respectively, with daily changes of 21, -12, 6, and -15, and interval changes of 6, 48, -38, and -16 [4]. Crack Spread and Profit - The asphalt Brent crack spread on July 29 was -90, a daily decrease of 89 and an interval decrease of 137 [4]. - The asphalt Ma Rui profit on July 29 was -150, a daily decrease of 80 and an interval decrease of 122 [4]. - The comprehensive profit of ordinary refineries and Ma Rui - type refineries on July 29 were 393 and -6 respectively, with daily changes of -56 and -82, and interval changes of -66 and -92 [4]. - The import profits of South Korea - East China and Singapore - South China on July 29 were -153 and -1006 respectively, with daily changes of -5 and -6, and interval changes of -1 and -10 [4]. Related Prices - The price of Brent crude oil on July 29 was 70.0, a daily increase of 1.6 and an interval increase of 1.5 [4]. - The market prices of gasoline, diesel, and residue oil in Shandong on July 29 were 7795, 6675, and 3650 respectively, with daily changes of 39, 37, and 0, and interval changes of -43, -13, and 0 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic LPG market is expected to continue its narrow - range oscillatory trend. International LPG prices are weak, and the increase in domestic chemical demand is offset by the low combustion demand [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Price Data - On July 29, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylated oil were 4480, 4413, 4413, 4600, and 550 respectively. The daily changes were 0, 0, 0, - 20, and 1 respectively [1] 3.2 Market Conditions - The PG futures market is oscillating. The international LPG price is weak, and the significant increase in warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The domestic chemical demand is increasing, but the low combustion demand restricts the upward movement. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4413 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Spread and Arbitrage - The basis has weakened to 370 (- 63). The inter - month reverse spread continues to strengthen. The 08 - 09 spread is 2, and the 08 - 10 spread is - 398. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window is closed [1] 3.4 Production Profit - FEI and CP have risen, PP has risen significantly, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP has deteriorated. The CP production cost is lower than that of FEI. PDH profit has improved, and MTBE export profit has declined [1] 3.5 Inventory and Supply - The arrival volume has decreased significantly. Due to typhoons, ships in South China are delayed, and port inventories have decreased. Factory inventories have slightly increased. The commodity volume has decreased by 0.53% [1] 3.6 Demand - Chemical demand is strong. PDH operating rate has increased significantly to 73.13% (+ 2.01 pct). Alkylation operating rate has increased, and MTBE operating load has risen [1]