AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 匈牙利和土耳其央行沦为政治工具的警示 帕特森摆出匈牙利和土耳其两个例子。这两国领导人在面对预算赤字、通胀压力和刺激增长的诉求时， 都打破了制度规范并修改法律，以确保央行服务于政府的政治目标，结果通常是人为压低利率，意图加 速经济增长。 首先是匈牙利。该国央行自1991年起独立运作，但过去约15年来，政府多次试图影响货币政策决策，通 过增加货币政策委员会成员数量"改造"决策结构。2011年通过修改法律削弱央行独立性后，三大评级机 构将匈牙利主权信用评级下调至垃圾级，导致借款成本攀升，该国货币福林贬值。 尽管如此，政府对央行的掌控并未停止，今年，维克多·欧尔班（Viktor Orban）领导的青民盟 （Fidesz）又提出立法，拟将货币政策委员会成员从9人扩充至11人，并新增由欧尔班直接任命的副行 长。 音频由扣子空间生成 美国总统特朗普及其政府试图通过施压美联储主席鲍威尔来达成降息目的。美国外交关系委员会的经济 学家和高级研究员丽贝卡·帕特森（Rebecca Patterson）发文警告称，特朗普政府对美联储的施压行为存 在高风险且可能适得其反。 几个月来，特朗普一直呼吁美 ...

Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the monetary policy and economic conditions in China, with implications for the technology sector and broader market dynamics. Core Points and Arguments 1. The central bank introduced a series of policies aimed at economic recovery, referred to as "real power booster pills," including a 0.5% reserve requirement ratio cut and a 0.1% interest rate reduction, which was unexpected by the market [1][2][3] 2. Initial market reactions were mixed, with major indices experiencing declines before a late rally, suggesting a lack of immediate understanding of the policy's implications [2][3] 3. The focus of the policies appears to be on stabilizing the market rather than driving significant upward momentum, with a preference for supporting the technology sector [3][4] 4. Specific measures for the technology sector include increased loan quotas for technological innovation and greater acceptance for listings on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [3][4] 5. The real estate sector is also mentioned, with policies aimed at stabilization rather than growth, including lower mortgage rates and increased credit resources [4] 6. Discussions between China and the U.S. are ongoing, with a meeting planned in Switzerland, but expectations for immediate market impacts are tempered due to the balance of power between the two nations [5][6] 7. Both the U.S. and China may face pressure in May, indicating a challenging period ahead for their markets [7] 8. The military conflict between India and Pakistan has sparked interest in the defense sector, particularly regarding China's military supplies to Pakistan, which could lead to increased excitement in the military industry [8] 9. Overall market sentiment remains cautious, with limited opportunities expected in the near term, emphasizing the need to wait for significant developments in the technology sector for potential investment opportunities [9] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The conference highlighted the importance of maintaining market stability and the potential for emerging industries and technologies to drive future growth, rather than relying on traditional sectors [3][4] - The geopolitical context, particularly the U.S.-China relations and regional conflicts, is influencing market dynamics and investor sentiment [5][6][8]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. economy, Federal Reserve policies, and the impact of U.S.-China trade negotiations. Core Points and Arguments 1. The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% aligns with market expectations, but there is growing concern about future economic growth, inflation, and rising unemployment rates [1][5] 2. The job market shows resilience, with a significant increase in non-farm payrolls and stable unemployment rates, indicating no signs of economic slowdown despite previous soft data suggesting otherwise [2][3] 3. The Federal Reserve's stance remains cautious, with no clear guidance on future interest rate paths due to the uncertain impact of tariff policies on the economy [3][4] 4. The market is focused on U.S.-China trade negotiations, with both countries signaling the start of talks, although President Trump has stated he will not lower tariffs on China [4] 5. The Federal Reserve has paused interest rate cuts for the third consecutive meeting, despite calls from President Trump for rate reductions, indicating a careful approach to monetary policy [5] 6. China's foreign exchange reserves increased to $3.2817 trillion, with a rise of $41 billion (1.27%) from the previous month, and the central bank has been increasing gold reserves for six consecutive months [6] 7. Domestic policies in China aim to support the real estate market and enhance financing for small and private enterprises, indicating a proactive approach to stabilize the economy [7] 8. Commodity markets are experiencing declines, with most agricultural products and energy-related commodities seeing price drops, reflecting broader market trends [8][9] 9. Recent data from the U.S. indicates a slight contraction in GDP, influenced by tariff policies affecting consumer confidence and spending [11] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. The Federal Reserve's cautious approach is influenced by the need to observe the effects of tariff policies before making further decisions on interest rates [3] 2. The upcoming economic data releases, including the Bank of England's interest rate decision and U.S. unemployment claims, are expected to impact market sentiment [12][13] 3. The overall economic outlook remains strong based on hard data, despite concerns raised by soft survey data, suggesting a complex economic environment [2][3]

金十数据7月16日讯，英国官方数据周三显示，英国6月CPI年率从上月的3.4%升至3.6%，高于预期。英 国通胀率自去年9月触及1.7%的三年低点后稳步上升，英国央行5月预测通胀率将在9月达到3.7%的峰 值，几乎是目标2%的两倍。尽管如此，英国央行行长贝利表示，由于劳动力市场疲软给工资增长带来 下行压力，且经济增长前景依然黯淡，利率很可能会保持逐步下行的趋势。英国央行自去年8月以来已 四次降息，路透上月调查显示经济学家预计今年还将降息两次（每次25基点）。但一些决策者担心，劳 动力市场的技能错配和其他供应限制因素将使工资增长过快，从而使通胀无法很快回到目标水平。 英国6月通胀率超预期上升 降息路径面临考验 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Hangzhou government has established a joint working group to investigate the recent reports of multiple students experiencing nosebleeds in a school located in the Qiantang District [1] - The joint working group consists of representatives from the municipal ecological environment, health, education departments, as well as provincial and municipal experts, media representatives, and student parents [1] - The government emphasizes its high concern for student health and has committed to timely updates regarding the investigation and subsequent actions [1]

巴西央行经济政策主管Kanczuk：考虑到美联储的前景，巴西预计将在12月降息。 ...

金十数据7月15日讯，"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos最新撰文称："6月的通胀数据可能会让美联储官员 继续保持谨慎，那些曾预测关税将在今年晚些时候引发更显著价格压力的政策制定者，在看到6月的数 据后，可能不会有太多理由改变这一观点——尤其是如果零售商尽可能推迟调整价格的话。 6月的数据 只会让即将公布的7月和8月数据显得更加重要。同样，那些认为关税不会引发显著通胀（因为企业定价 能力不足以支撑通胀上升）的政策制定者，在看到周二的报告后，也几乎没有理由改变自己的看 法。"近几周，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，与春季相比，美联储降息的门槛可能略有降低。这一转变反映 出一种评估：通胀风险可能需要更长时间才会显现，因此其影响也会相对较弱。 如果美联储维持"通胀 加速不会过于剧烈"的预期，那么基于劳动力市场走软或通胀数据好转等情况，鲍威尔可能最早在9月为 降息打开大门。" 订阅美联储动态 +订阅 订阅美国CPI +订阅 美联储传声筒：今天的CPI报告不会改变美联储的政策走向 ...

尽管美联储官员强调需观察更多数据再决定降息，贝森特在采访中表示近期通胀走势尚未显现"物价大 幅上涨"的迹象，但同时提醒"不应过度依赖单一数据点"。 值得关注的是，部分共和党人正以美联储两座历史建筑翻新工程成本超支为由，质疑鲍威尔的领导能 力。对此，贝森特重申特朗普"多次表示不会解雇鲍威尔"的立场，而国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特 则谨慎回应称"若有正当理由，总统当然有权采取行动"。 智通财经APP获悉，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特近日公开建议，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔应在2026年5 月任期结束后辞去央行理事会职务。他在接受采访时表示，按照传统，美联储主席卸任后通常会同时辞 去理事职务，并指出若鲍威尔继续留任理事，可能引发市场困惑。 目前，鲍威尔的美联储理事任期将持续至2028年1月，这意味着即使明年5月卸任主席职位，他仍可能参 与货币政策制定。鲍威尔此前多次回避是否继续担任理事的问题，这为特朗普政府明年改组美联储领导 层增添了不确定性。 贝森特透露，特朗普团队已启动确定下一任美联储主席候选人的正式程序，并强调"美联储内外均有优 秀人选"。当被问及是否可能亲自接任时，这位财政部长回应称"参与决策过程"，并强调最 ...

展望本周，市场关注焦点依然集中在全球地缘局势及贸易摩擦进展方面，此外，多位美联储官员对货币 政策的表态也将对黄金本周行情走势产生一定影响。从技术面来看，现货金价自上周初经大幅向下调整 后，周终收盘拉回3200美元／盎司整数关口之上，表明黄金的底部买盘较为强劲，本周有进一步向上反 弹空间。短线关注3250美元／盎司一线多空争夺情况，如有效上破，上看3280~3300美元／盎司区间压 力；下方关注3200~3190美元／盎司区域支撑力度。 （文章来源：新华财经） 不过，尽管中美贸易暂时敲定了协议，但可以预见的是，特朗普政府一贯的"美国优先"贸易保护主义政 策将继续对全球政经秩序造成持续困扰，美元信用也将持续衰落并对美国自身造成更大反噬。与此同 时，美联储长期维持高利率环境已严重削弱了其国内消费意愿，今年第一季度经济已萎缩0.3%。预计 接下来特朗普政府与美联储围绕降息展开的博弈将不可避免的再度升级，市场对美国经济前景担忧将进 一步加剧。 对于黄金市场而言，在全球政经格局加速重构的大背景下，地缘风险不定、美元美债信用下降、全球央 行持续增持黄金，对黄金的需求将长期保持旺盛，金价后市上升空间依然可期。 新华财经北京5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown positive performance with a recent price increase and significant trading activity, indicating strong market interest and liquidity. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of July 15, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera increased by 0.34%, with a latest price of 112.53 yuan [1] - Over the past six months, the ETF has accumulated a total increase of 1.30% [1] - The ETF's latest scale reached 9.115 billion yuan, marking a one-year high [2] - The latest share count for the ETF is approximately 81.30 million, also a one-year high [3] Group 2: Market Activity - The ETF experienced a turnover rate of 14.88% with a trading volume of 1.36 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [1] - The average daily trading volume over the past week was 3.023 billion yuan [1] - There was a net inflow of 718 million yuan into the ETF, with four out of the last five trading days showing positive net inflows totaling 1.631 billion yuan [4] Group 3: Financial Data Insights - As of June 2025, the total social financing stock was 430.22 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.9% [3] - The balance of various RMB loans was 268.56 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [3] Group 4: Investment Trends - Leverage funds have been actively buying into the ETF, with a net purchase of 16.72 million yuan on the highest single day [5] - The ETF has shown a one-year net value increase of 13.47%, ranking 5th out of 410 index bond funds [5] Group 5: Risk and Fee Structure - The maximum drawdown since the ETF's inception is 6.89%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 1.28% [6] - The management fee for the ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [7] Group 6: Tracking Accuracy - The ETF has a tracking error of 0.036% over the past month, closely following the Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-year government bond index [8]