Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that U.S. Treasury yields are mostly declining as investors digest strong retail sales data and anticipate a nearly certain interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week [1][2] - The U.S. retail sales in August showed a robust growth of 0.6%, marking the third consecutive month of strong performance, surpassing the Dow Jones forecast of 0.3% [2] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (BPs), with market expectations indicating a cumulative rate cut of 75 BPs by the end of the year [2][3] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury is set to issue two bonds totaling $98 billion, including $85 billion in 6-week short-term debt and $13 billion in 20-year bonds [3] - In the European market, bond yields are generally rising, with the 10-year German bond yield increasing by 1 BP to 2.705% [3] - In the Asia-Pacific market, Japanese bond yields are mostly declining, with the 20-year bond yield rising by 3.3 BPs to 2.678% [3]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Predictions - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the policy rate to a range of 4% to 4.25% [2] - Wall Street predicts a total of 5 to 6 rate cuts in this cycle, with some expectations of a 50 basis point cut in September [2][3] - Employment data shows a significant slowdown, with August non-farm payrolls adding only 22,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate reaching 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years [3] Group 2: AI Sector Impact on Markets - The AI sector is driving a bullish trend in global capital markets, with significant contributions from major tech companies [2][5] - Oracle's recent earnings report, despite slightly missing revenue expectations, saw a stock surge of 28% due to a massive increase in remaining performance obligations (RPO), which grew by 359% to $455 billion [6][7] - The demand for exposure to U.S. tech stocks has surged among hedge funds, indicating a strong interest in AI-related investments [6][7] Group 3: Global Market Trends - The U.S. stock market has reached historical highs, driven by AI developments and the anticipation of interest rate cuts [5][6] - Japan's stock market is also experiencing a rally, attributed to favorable trade conditions and a growing AI chip industry [8] - There is a notable increase in interest from foreign investors in the Chinese market, particularly in sectors like AI and biotechnology, with over 90% of surveyed institutions expressing a willingness to increase allocations [9]

Group 1 - A U.S. federal appeals court ruled that Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook can continue her tenure, rejecting an emergency request from the Trump administration to dismiss her [1][3] - The Senate confirmed Stephen Moore as the new Federal Reserve Board member, replacing Adriana Kugler, with a narrow vote of 48 to 47 [3] - The Trump administration may appeal to the Supreme Court in an attempt to remove Cook before the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting scheduled for September 16 [3][4] Group 2 - Lisa Cook is the first African American woman to serve on the Federal Reserve Board, nominated by former President Biden [3] - Allegations against Cook include claims of mortgage fraud related to her declaring two properties as her "primary residence" for better loan rates, which she denies [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a new round of interest rate cuts during the upcoming monetary policy meeting [4]

据美国媒体报道，美国联邦上诉法院当地时间9月15日裁定，驳回特朗普政府有关允许其解雇美国联邦 储备委员会理事莉萨·库克的请求。美联储定于16日和17日召开货币政策会议，市场普遍预计美联储将 开启新一轮降息。 ...

转自：新华财经 •桑坦德银行：英国央行或已结束降息，薪资通胀黏性支撑鹰派立场 •标普：预计美联储9月降息25基点至4.00%-4.25% •RBC BlueBay：预测美联储2025年累计降息75基点 •凯投宏观分析师表示，目前市场确实定价美联储会进行多次降息。总体而言，这或许表明，美联储政 策出现鹰派意外的门槛略低于出现鸽派意外的门槛，美联储很可能会坚持其谨慎的沟通方式，不会透露 太多信息。 •德国9月ZEW经济景气指数意外升至37.3（前值34.7），远超市场预期的25，反映投资者对经济复苏持 谨慎乐观；但现状指数恶化，凸显当下疲软。德国ZEW总裁指出，德国9月汽车、化工、制药及金属等 出口行业前景改善是主因，但美国关税与国内"改革秋季"政策不确定性仍构成重大风险。 •中金公司分析指出，2025年9月FOMC会议降息25基点预期概率已超90%（CME FedWatch），10月、12 月再降息概率均超70%。触发因素为美国8月CPI同比2.9%、核心CPI 3.1%，通胀温和；8月非农仅增2.2 万，叠加就业数据大幅下修（累计少报91.1万岗位），劳动力市场明显走弱。 •麦肯锡预测显示，至2030年，全球 ...

美国一家联邦巡回上诉法院15日裁定，美国联邦储备委员会理事莉萨·库克可继续留任，驳回特朗普政 府要求将其解雇的紧急申请。 在上述裁决公布同日，美国参议院以48比47的微弱优势确认特朗普提名的白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂 芬·米兰接替辞职的阿德里安娜·库格勒出任美联储理事。 据美国媒体报道，特朗普政府可能会向最高法院提出紧急上诉，力争在即将于16日召开的美联储货币政 策会议前解雇库克。如无最高法院紧急叫停，会议将由联邦公开市场委员会的12名成员投票决定是否降 息。 来源：新华社 库克是首位出任美联储理事的非洲裔女性，由前任总统拜登提名上任。美国联邦住房金融署署长比尔· 普尔特8月公开指认库克曾同时把两处房产申报为其"主要住宅"以获取更优惠贷款利率，并向司法部提 交相关刑事指控。特朗普8月25日以涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由解除库克职务。库克否认有任何不当行 为，指认特朗普政府让她走人是因为不满她的货币政策立场，并于8月28日提起诉讼。 作者: 林芮竹 库克引发争议的两处房产分别位于密歇根州安阿伯市和佐治亚州亚特兰大市。安阿伯市税务部门15日 说，该部门审核了库克的房地产相关信息，"没有理由认为"她违反了房地产税相关规 ...

智通财经APP获悉，特朗普政府试图影响美联储决策的努力与央行独立性之间迎来激烈博弈。美国参议 院以微弱优势批准特朗普经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰(Stephen Miran)进入美联储理事会，此举强化了特朗普对 货币政策的影响力。米兰支持降息，预计将在9月会议主张更大幅度宽松。与此同时，哥伦比亚特区巡 回上诉法院驳回特朗普解雇美联储理事莉萨·库克(Lisa Cook)的请求，维护了美联储的独立性。法院裁 定总统无权以其政策立场为由免职理事。 特朗普经济顾问获参议院批准加入美联储 特朗普罢免美联储理事遭否 与此同时，周一，美国一家上诉法院拒绝了让特朗普解雇美联储理事莉萨·库克(Lisa Cook)的请求—— 这是自 1913 年美联储成立以来总统首次采取此类行动——这是这场法律斗争的最新一步，这场斗争威 胁到了美联储长期以来的独立性。 通常情况下，美联储理事的提名需要经过参议院数月的审议才能获得通过;而米兰的情况则是在不到六 周的时间内就完成了这一过程。阿拉斯加州的参议员莉萨·穆尔科斯基(Lisa Murkowski)是唯一一个反对 米兰提名的共和党人。 米兰预计将参与9月16日启动的为期两天的美联储会议。市场普遍预计 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent personnel changes at the Federal Reserve, including the court ruling allowing Lisa Cook to remain and the Senate's approval of Stephen Miran, have added uncertainty to the upcoming interest rate decision, highlighting the political tensions surrounding the Fed's independence [1][2][3]. Group 1: Personnel Changes - The U.S. Court of Appeals upheld a lower court's decision, allowing Lisa Cook to participate in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, despite facing pressure from President Trump [1]. - Stephen Miran was confirmed by the Senate with a narrow vote of 48 to 47, and is expected to take office in time for the Fed meeting [1][4]. Group 2: Impact on Interest Rate Decisions - Market expectations prior to these changes were for a 25 basis point rate cut, with a 10% chance of a 50 basis point cut; however, the addition of Cook and Miran has led to discussions of a potential "four-way split" in voting [6][7]. - Analysts suggest that Miran's appointment will likely strengthen the dovish camp within the FOMC, potentially leading to a vote for a 50 basis point cut [4][7]. Group 3: Political Tensions and Independence - The situation reflects increasing tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve, with Cook previously identified as one of the most dovish members, potentially complicating the Fed's decision-making process [3][4]. - There are concerns that Cook may unexpectedly vote for a rate hike to assert her independence, which could further complicate the Fed's stance and raise questions about its autonomy [3][7].

美上诉法院裁定美联储理事库克留任 据美国媒体报道，特朗普政府可能会向最高法院提出紧急上诉，力争在即将于16日召开的美联储货币政 策会议前解雇库克。如无最高法院紧急叫停，会议将由联邦公开市场委员会的12名成员投票决定是否降 息。 库克是首位出任美联储理事的非洲裔女性，由前任总统拜登提名上任。美国联邦住房金融署署长比尔· 普尔特8月公开指认库克曾同时把两处房产申报为其"主要住宅"以获取更优惠贷款利率，并向司法部提 交相关刑事指控。特朗普8月25日以涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由解除库克职务。库克否认有任何不当行 为，指认特朗普政府让她走人是因为不满她的货币政策立场，并于8月28日提起诉讼。 库克引发争议的两处房产分别位于密歇根州安阿伯市和佐治亚州亚特兰大市。安阿伯市税务部门15日 说，该部门审核了库克的房地产相关信息，"没有理由认为"她违反了房地产税相关规定。另一处房产所 在的佐治亚州地方官员也告诉路透社，库克从未将其在亚特兰大的房产申报为主要居所。 美联储定于16日和17日召开货币政策会议，市场普遍预计美联储将开启新一轮降息。近期，特朗普因不 满美联储不肯配合他降低基准利率，多次猛烈抨击美联储主席鲍威尔等人。（完）（ ...

美国参议院周一以微弱优势确认米兰将接任美联储理事，在美联储关键9月政策会议召开前夕，拿下12 张表决票中一票。 特朗普第一个任期内任命的另外两位美联储理事鲍曼和沃勒在7月会议时均投票反对维持利率不变的决 定，支持降息。分析人士称，由于劳动力市场数据弱于预期，这两人可能在9月会议再次投反对票，支 持更大幅度的降息。自1988年前主席格林斯潘任期初期以来，美联储政策决议尚未出现遭遇三名理事反 对的局面。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...