本周全球大类资产表现一览： 核心观点 2024年开始，日债走向公众视野，频繁引发市场关注。因为日债利率影响日本套息交易，进而影响美国资产。 尤其在美股脆弱之际，日债波动放大担忧，加剧美国资产高波动。2024年三季度和2025年二季度，市场已经历了两轮日本套息交易逆转叙事引发的美 股"崩溃"。 结束了20年低利率的日债，近年波动加大，最终是否会引发一轮全球范围内的资产震荡？ 日债是境外美元流动性非常重要的观测指标，日本在全球中的定位，决定了日债本身不可能成为全球资产波动的决定因素，但全球美元流动性转向一定会 在日债上得到反馈。与其关注日债，我们更需要跟踪的是美国经济和政策周期。 下周需要关注： 国内中央政治局会议，出口、社融、通胀数据；海外关注美联储议息会议。 摘要 本周A股和港股在震荡中收涨，上证重回3900。宽松预期修正影响下，空头情绪较强，债市延续回调。 本周风险资产波动加大，总体收涨。日本央行鹰派发言，引发全球风险资产调整；随后美国披露就业和通胀数据，美联储降息预期走高，股票和大宗走 强。 一、中国股市：A股、H股震荡反复，总体收涨。 中国AH股回顾： A股：本周市场反复震荡，周五沪指重返3900点，创 ...

周度报告-黄金 降息预期定价充分，黄金震荡收跌 [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] 黄金：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 12 月 7 日 [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金跌 1%至 4198 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率升至 4.14%，通 胀预期 2.27%，实际利率上行至 1.87%，美元指数跌 0.47%至 99，标 普 500 指数涨 0.31%，人民币走势震荡，沪金折价收窄。 贵 金 属 金价震荡收跌，波动率下降，缺乏增量利多，白银和铜交易热度 明显高于黄金。美联储进入 12 月利率会议前的静默期，降息 25bp 已经被市场充分定价，特朗普宣布将于明年初公布美联储主席人 选，暗示将会是白宫经济顾问委员会主席哈塞特，其货币政策倾 向于鸽派，一度提振黄金价格。美国经济数据喜忧参半，11 月美 国 ISM 制造业 PMI 录得 48.2，不及市场预期的 49，连续 9 个月处 于收缩区间，非制造业 PMI 从 52.4 微升至 52.6，预期 52.1，制造 业和非制造业 PMI 的就业分项较上月回升，但仍然处于 50 荣枯 线下方，关税对价格和需求的影响已经开始体现，美联储褐皮书 ...

Market Overview - Risk assets continue to receive buying support due to rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with key events approaching year-end [1] - U.S. stock markets showed slight gains, with the Dow up 0.50%, Nasdaq up 0.91%, and S&P 500 up 0.31% for the week [1] - European indices displayed mixed results, with the UK FTSE 100 down 0.55%, while Germany's DAX 30 rose 0.80% [1] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement a third consecutive 25 basis point rate cut, with labor market data indicating weakness despite ongoing inflation concerns [2] - Investors are closely monitoring the Fed's dot plot and Chairman Powell's statements to gauge future rate cut pace and magnitude [2] - The U.S. money market is pricing in 2-3 additional rate cuts by 2026 [2] Economic Data Releases - Upcoming economic data will reflect the health of the U.S. labor market, including delayed key data due to the federal government shutdown [3] - The U.S. Treasury will auction $58 billion in 3-year notes, $39 billion in 10-year notes, and $22 billion in 30-year notes, testing investor demand for long-term bonds [3] Corporate Earnings Focus - Earnings reports from Oracle, Adobe, Broadcom, and Costco are anticipated, with concerns over excessive investment in AI and rising corporate debt [3] - Oracle's credit default swap (CDS) spreads have reached their highest level since 2009, making its performance critical [3] Central Bank Decisions - The Reserve Bank of Australia is unlikely to signal a dovish stance due to high inflation, with the October CPI rising to 3.8% [4] - The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain rates amid ongoing tariff negotiations with the U.S. [4] - The Swiss National Bank faces pressure to adopt a dovish policy due to weak GDP and negative producer price index (PPI) growth [5][6] Commodity Market Trends - International oil prices have stabilized, with WTI crude up 2.61% to $60.08 per barrel and Brent crude up 2.20% to $63.75 per barrel [6] - Gold prices are fluctuating, with December COMEX gold futures down 0.13% to $4,212.90 per ounce, as market focus remains on the Fed's monetary policy outlook [6][7] Economic Outlook in Europe - Germany's manufacturing PMI for October was reported at 48.2, indicating an expanded contraction in the manufacturing sector [8] - The Eurozone's CPI for early November rose to 2.2%, nearing the European Central Bank's 2% inflation target, suggesting limited scope for significant monetary policy adjustments [8] - The UK GDP data for October is a key focus, with expectations of a 0.2% month-on-month growth, aligning with a projected annual growth rate of approximately 1.5% for 2025 [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Oscillating" [5] Core View of the Report - The US economic data is weakening, and the US dollar is turning downward. The market has fully priced in a 25bp interest rate cut by the Fed in December. Although the Fed is expected to cut rates, the internal hawkish - dovish divide limits future rate - cut space. The Bank of Japan's potential rate hike is also affecting the market. Overall, the downward pressure on the US dollar index is increasing, waiting for the Fed's rate - cut confirmation [2][36][37] Summary by Directory 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite remains high. Most stock markets rise, and most bond yields increase, with the US Treasury yield rising to 4.14%. The US dollar index drops 0.47% to 99, and most non - US currencies appreciate. Gold prices fall 1% to $4198 per ounce, the VIX index drops to 15.4, and the spot commodity index rises. Brent crude oil rises 0.4% to $64.6 per barrel [1][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rise. In developed markets, the S&P 500 rises 0.31%. In emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index rises 0.37%. The Fed is in a silent period before the interest - rate meeting, and the market has fully priced in a 25bp rate cut in December. US economic data is mixed, but the downward trend persists. The domestic stock market shows a slight upward and volatile trend, with policy intentions to attract long - term funds but also facing year - end profit - taking [10][11][13] 2.2 Bond Market - Most global bond yields rise, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rises to 4.14%. The Fed's rate - cut expectation is fully priced, but inflation limits future rate - cut space. The Bank of Japan's potential rate hike and fiscal stimulus push up Japanese long - term bond yields, driving up European and American bond yields. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury yield rises to 1.833%, and the Sino - US interest - rate spread inversion widens [14][18][21] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index drops 0.47% to 99, and most non - US currencies appreciate. Offshore RMB rises slightly by 0.02%, the euro rises 0.38%, the pound rises 0.7%, the yen rises 0.54%, etc. [25][27][28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold falls 1% to $4198 per ounce. The market has fully priced in the Fed's rate - cut expectation, and gold lacks upward momentum. Brent crude oil rises 0.4% to $64.6 per barrel. The oil supply - demand pattern is weak, but concerns about supply from potential US actions against Venezuela and the fall of the US dollar support the rise of the commodity index [29][30][31] 3. Hot - spot Tracking - US core PCE data is weaker than expected, and employment decreases. The latest manufacturing PMI is below 50, and ADP employment shows negative growth. The core PCE inflation pressure is relatively small, and a rate cut in December is likely [32][33][36] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: China's November import and export data - Tuesday: US November NFIB small - business confidence index, US October JOLTs job openings - Wednesday: China's November CPI, Bank of Canada interest - rate meeting - Thursday: Fed interest - rate meeting decision, US weekly initial jobless claims, US November PPI - Friday: Final November CPI values for Germany and France [38]

Market Overview - The market is experiencing support for risk assets due to rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with major U.S. stock indices showing slight increases: Dow Jones up 0.50%, Nasdaq up 0.91%, and S&P 500 up 0.31% [1][11] - European indices showed mixed results, with the UK FTSE 100 down 0.55%, while Germany's DAX 30 rose 0.80% and France's CAC 40 fell 0.10% [1][11] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a third consecutive 25 basis point rate cut on December 10, amid concerns over a weak labor market and persistent inflation worries [2][12] - The market anticipates the release of the Fed's dot plot, which will provide insights into the pace and magnitude of future rate cuts, with expectations for 2-3 additional cuts by 2026 [2][12] Economic Data Releases - Key economic data releases next week include U.S. labor market indicators, such as unit labor costs and job openings, which are crucial for assessing economic health [2][12] - The U.S. Treasury will auction $58 billion in 3-year notes, $39 billion in 10-year notes, and $22 billion in 30-year notes, testing investor demand for long-term bonds [2][13] Corporate Earnings Focus - Companies such as Oracle, Adobe, Broadcom, and Costco are under scrutiny for their earnings reports, particularly due to concerns over excessive investment in AI and rising corporate debt [3][13] Central Bank Decisions - The Reserve Bank of Australia is unlikely to signal further rate cuts due to high inflation, with the October CPI rising to 3.8% [4][14] - The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain its current rate, influenced by strong employment data and GDP growth, despite ongoing trade negotiations with the U.S. [4][14] - The Swiss National Bank faces pressure to adopt a dovish stance due to weak GDP performance and negative producer price index growth, although recent PMI and retail sales data have exceeded expectations [5][15] Commodity Prices - International oil prices have stabilized, with WTI crude rising 2.61% to $60.08 per barrel and Brent crude up 2.20% to $63.75 per barrel [6][15] - Gold prices are fluctuating, with COMEX gold futures down 0.13% to $4,212.90 per ounce, as market focus remains on the Fed's monetary policy outlook [6][16] Economic Resilience in Europe - Eurozone inflation is nearing the European Central Bank's target, with November CPI rising to 2.2%, suggesting limited scope for significant monetary policy adjustments [8][18] - The UK GDP data for October is anticipated, with expectations for a 0.2% month-on-month growth, reflecting concerns over economic prospects [8][18]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement a third consecutive interest rate cut during its upcoming meeting this week [1] Group 1 - The expectation of a rate cut reflects ongoing economic conditions and the Fed's response to inflation and growth concerns [1]

本周强势的白银在刷新历史新高59.31美元后，涨幅回落至2%。 来源：每日经济新闻 当地时间12月5日，美股三大指数均小幅收涨，道指涨0.22%；纳指涨0.31%；标普500指数涨0.19%。 大型科技股多数上涨，博通涨超2%，谷歌、Meta涨超1%，苹果、英伟达跌幅不足1%。存储概念、零 售百货涨幅居前，SanDisk涨超7%，美光科技涨超4%，梅西百货、迪拉德百货涨超2%。加密货币概 念、综合油气跌幅居前，Strive跌超7%，英国石油跌超3%，道达尔、埃尼石油、Circle跌超2%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨1.29%，热门中概股多数上涨，百度涨超5%，万国数据涨超4%，小鹏汽 车、爱奇艺、好未来涨超2%。 富时A50期指连续夜盘收涨0.41%，报15248点。 贵金属市场出现剧烈波动，现货黄金一度涨超1.2%、随后转跌失守4200美元。 据媒体报道，12月5日，美国商务部公布的9月核心个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数，由于创纪录的美国 政府停摆而被推迟发布，显示其年率为2.8%，低于预期的2.9%。 作为美联储首选通胀指标的PCE报告，将成为美联储在下周三利率决议前拿到的最后一份通胀数据。在 通胀温和回 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing an unusual calmness with low volatility indicators, such as the VIX and MOVE indices, near their yearly lows, despite recent fears and fluctuations in AI stocks and credit markets [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, is hovering near its lowest point of the year, while the MOVE index has reached its lowest level since early 2021, indicating a significant drop in fear among investors [1]. - Just weeks ago, the market was filled with panic, particularly around AI stocks, which saw a rapid rise and subsequent fall, leading to increased volatility in stock and credit markets [2]. - Investors are currently betting on the continuation of this calm state, with U.S. stock funds recording inflows for 12 consecutive weeks [2]. Group 2: Economic Data and Confidence - Stable economic data is a key reason for the current market calm, with the Fed's preferred inflation measure showing a monthly increase of 0.2% and an annualized increase slightly below 3%, indicating persistent but stable inflation pressures [3]. - Despite signs of weakness in the labor market, such as the largest layoffs since early 2023 reported by ADP, confidence in economic resilience is supporting the low volatility environment [3][4]. - The potential for increased layoffs could change the current sentiment, as rising unemployment may reflect greater recession risks that have not yet been priced in [4].

核心PCE物价指数是衡量美国民间消费通胀的关键指标，于2002年被美联储的决策机构联邦公开市场委 员会采纳为衡量通货膨胀的一个主要指标。从隔夜市场表现看，美股三大股指集体上涨，核心PCE物价 指数降温一定程度上提振了市场对美联储下周再次宣布降息的预期。CME美联储观察工具显示，市场 预计美联储在12月货币政策会议上降息25个基点的概率已升至87%。 在通胀有所降温的同时，从近期美联储官员表态来看，其普遍更加看重就业市场走弱的风险。华安证券 认为，第三方机构的高频数据均指向就业市场进一步走弱，给降息提供了一定支撑。但结合10月美联储 议息会议纪要中其官员对后续降息存在较大分歧，预计12月美联储大概率采取"鹰派"降息，并对后续降 息路径的态度更加谨慎，同时需要关注12月末美国总统特朗普可能宣布的下一任美联储主席人选。 北京时间12月5日晚，美联储最关注的通胀指标——PCE物价指数出炉，其被视为影响美联储本月利率 政策的重要变量之一。数据显示，美国9月核心PCE物价指数同比上升2.8%，低于预期和前值（均为 2.9%）；环比上升0.2%，与市场预期和前值保持一致。 ...

Economic Overview - The latest economic data indicates a moderate cooling of the economy, with September consumer spending rising by 0.3%, aligning with market expectations, while the August increase was revised down from 0.6% to 0.5% [5] - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for September rose by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, meeting expectations; core PCE increased by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year [5] - The consumer confidence index rose to 53.3 in early December, surpassing the expected 52, indicating improved consumer sentiment [5] Market Performance - The U.S. stock market saw a mild increase, with the S&P 500 up by 13.28 points (0.19%) to 6870.40, the Dow Jones up by 104.05 points (0.22%) to 47954.99, and the Nasdaq up by 72.99 points (0.31%) to 23578.13, marking the fourth consecutive day of gains for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq [2] - The communication services sector performed best among the 11 sectors in the S&P 500, with nearly a 1% increase, reaching a record closing high [2] Company News - Netflix plans to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery's television, film production, and streaming assets for $72 billion, concluding weeks of bidding [3] - Warner Bros. Discovery's stock rose by 6.3% following the acquisition news, while Netflix's stock fell by 2.9% [3] Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve has risen to 87.2%, significantly higher than less than 30% two weeks ago, following supportive comments from several Fed officials [6] - Market participants are betting on a potentially hawkish rate cut, with expectations that the Fed will maintain a cautious stance in its policy guidance [5] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 3.1 basis points to 4.139%, and the 30-year yield up by 3 basis points to 4.794% [6] - This week, both the 10-year and 30-year yields recorded their largest weekly increases in months [6] Commodity Market - WTI crude oil futures for January rose by 0.69% to $60.08, marking a third consecutive day of increases and a weekly gain of 2.61% [7] - Brent crude futures for February closed at $63.75, with a weekly increase of over 2.19% [7] - Gold prices fell, with spot gold down by 0.30% to $4194.86 and COMEX gold futures down by 0.44% to $4224.30, both showing weekly declines [7]