随着米兰就任美联储理事，特朗普总统对于美联储货币政策的干预能力在提升，但是特朗普总统尚未获 得对于美联储的完全的掌控权。不过，随着美联储重启降息，美元的走软趋势大概率会延续，而且走软 的强度会加深。目前，美元指数已经降至97附近。笔者认为，美元指数仍然有相当的下降空间。这会在 美国资本市场，乃至全球资本市场掀起不小的波澜，引发一系列的动荡。 JerryZang 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市 场的准确信息，请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 据媒体9月16日消息，由美国总统特朗普提名的斯蒂芬-米兰的美联储理事一职已经获得美国参议院投票 通过批准。这意味着，米兰可以参加本周三（9月17日）的美联储9月议息会议，并拥有投票权。 一段时间以来，特朗普总统一直在向美联储主席鲍威尔施压，希望美联储尽快降息。市场普遍认为，在 即将召开的美联储9月议息会议上，美联储会重启降息进程，不过降息的幅度可能为25个基点。 不过，就在昨天（9月15日），特朗普总统预测，美联储本次降息幅度可能会达到50个基点。但是，从 美联储主席鲍威尔一贯在货币政策方面的谨慎态度 ...

美国联邦储备委员会召开了一场为期两天的议息会议，然而，所有人的目光似乎都已穿透了会议室的门 窗，聚焦于一场超越经济范畴的巨大博弈。 这本应是一次常规的货币政策调整，市场的神经早已被安抚，从芝加哥商品交易所的数据看，高达 96.4%的交易员都笃定，美联储将宣布一次幅度为0.25个百分点的降息，然而，白宫传来的声音却完全 是另一个调子。 美国总统特朗普毫不掩饰地公开喊话，期望的是一次"大幅降息"，在市场看来，这无异于要求一步到位 降息50个基点，这种预期上的巨大鸿沟，早已不是简单的政策分歧，它背后，是白宫正通过法律诉讼、 人事任命和舆论施压等多种方式，对这个走过百余年历史的中央银行进行着前所未有的系统性围剿。 换人比吵架更管用 白宫的策略显得异常直接，甚至有些粗暴，它似乎绕开了复杂的政策辩论，转而直捣黄龙，试图通过重 塑美联储理事会的核心人员构成，来一劳永逸地改变其决策天平，这场"人事战争"双管齐下，一边 是"清除异己"，另一边则是"安插亲信"。 行动的焦点，直指美联储理事丽莎·库克，特朗普政府试图以库克涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈的陈年旧事为由， 强行将其解雇。这一举动，在美联储一百多年的历史上，是破天荒的头一遭。 动机昭 ...

Economic Signals - The U.S. labor department revealed that non-farm employment data was overestimated by 910,000 jobs over the past year, averaging an overreport of 76,000 jobs per month [1] - August saw only 22,000 new jobs added, with the unemployment rate exceeding 4%, reminiscent of the data revisions before the 2008 crisis [2] - GDP growth of 3.3% in Q2 was driven by a drop in imports and consumption funded by savings, while business investment and exports declined [2] Market Reactions - Gold prices have reached a historical high when adjusted for inflation, surpassing the 1980 peak, with central banks purchasing 1,045 tons in 2024, indicating heightened risk aversion [4] - A significant number of executives are selling stocks, with 198 out of the top 200 transactions being sales, suggesting potential risks as insiders exit [4] - Money market fund balances have reached $7.4 trillion, nearly one-third of U.S. GDP, as investors prefer to earn 5% interest rather than invest in the stock market or real economy [4] Economic Conditions - One-third of U.S. states are experiencing economic decline, particularly energy and industrial states, while southern and larger states are propping up the economy [4] - Current economic indicators show signs of potential stagflation, with GDP growth near zero when adjusted for inflation, core inflation at 3% above target, rising unemployment, and declining real wages [7] Historical Context - The 1970s stagflation saw inflation peak at 13.5%, mortgage rates at 20%, and unemployment at 10.8%, with the stock market stagnating for 14 years [5] - Supply chain disruptions, similar to those during the oil crisis, are currently exacerbated by the pandemic, chip shortages, and geopolitical conflicts [5][6] Federal Reserve Dilemma - Market predictions suggest the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by 25-50 basis points, but historical lessons indicate that premature rate cuts can lead to a cycle of inflation resurgence [8] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma between not lowering rates to avoid burdening households and the risk of reigniting inflation if rates are cut [8] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on low-interest-rate benefiting assets, such as AI technology stocks and real estate, which may see reduced borrowing costs [10] - Allocating 5%-10% of funds into physical gold or quality gold mining stocks is recommended as a hedge against risks during stagflation [10] - Maintaining 20%-30% cash reserves allows for opportunistic buying during market downturns, while diversifying investments across stocks, bonds, and gold can mitigate risks [10]

"懂王"又开始搞事情了。 事实上，这一想法早在特朗普第一任期内就曾提出，近期再度旧事重提，引发市场广泛关注。特朗普认 为"这可以节省开支，让管理者专注于企业的正常运营"。 这一举措预计将遭遇很多反对的声音。季度财报不仅披露企业经营情况，还通常伴随业绩说明会，分析 师可借此向公司高管提问。 部分投资者警告称，若财务信息披露周期延长，透明度将下降，市场波动性或加剧，从而削弱美股吸引 力。 不过，特朗普的这一提议也不乏很多支持者。有专家认为，从优化上市公司资本配置的角度看，过于关 注季度盈利目标可能导致基于短期影响的决策，希望管理层将目光放在长期发展上。 被誉为"华尔街一哥"、摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙和"股神"巴菲特曾发表联合评论文章，呼吁企业不要过 于强调季度盈利预测。虽然他们并未反对季度财报本身，但认为企业往往为了满足季度预期而压缩投资 与招聘。 不管怎样，上述政策调整需要经过SEC的一系列流程。业内人士预计，最快也要2026年之后才能落地。 特朗普动作频频，降息前夜的博弈！ 除了上述提议之外，近期最受资本市场关注的，自然还是美联储即将召开（9月16日至17日）的议息会 议。 当地时间周一，美国总统特朗普呼吁美 ...

Group 1 - The market is currently in a state of fluctuation, with a significant focus on the upcoming interest rate cut, leading to a cautious approach from investors [1] - An interest rate cut typically results in lower yields on traditional safe assets, prompting capital to flow into higher-yield investments such as stocks, funds, and precious metals, which may positively impact Bitcoin (BTC) prices [1] - However, an interest rate cut may also signal economic recession, causing panic and risk aversion among investors, leading to a sell-off of non-core assets, including stocks and BTC, in favor of cash [1] Group 2 - Historical data shows that in 2019, the Federal Reserve cut rates three times, leading to a significant rise in BTC prices before a sharp decline when the cuts were realized, indicating a "buy the rumor, sell the news" phenomenon [3] - In March 2020, an interest rate cut initially caused a market crash, but subsequent monetary easing led to a massive influx of capital into BTC, resulting in a bull market that peaked at $69,000 [3] - Current economic indicators, such as a rising unemployment rate of 4.3% and high inflation, suggest a potential market downturn, with the possibility of a significant sell-off following the upcoming interest rate cut [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent personnel changes at the Federal Reserve, which add uncertainty to the upcoming interest rate decision, highlighting the political dynamics affecting the central bank's independence [1][3][4]. Group 1: Personnel Changes and Their Implications - The U.S. Court of Appeals upheld a lower court's decision preventing Trump from removing Lisa Cook, allowing her to participate in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [2][3]. - The Senate narrowly confirmed Stephen Miran as a member of the Federal Reserve Board, which is expected to strengthen the dovish camp within the FOMC [3][9]. - Cook's position is uncertain due to ongoing legal issues, which have become a focal point in the tension between the White House and the Federal Reserve [6][7]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Predictions - The market generally anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, but the addition of two contrasting voting members complicates the prediction [4][12]. - Analysts suggest a rare "four-way split" voting scenario could emerge, leading to significant confusion in policy signals from the FOMC [5][13]. - The potential voting factions include a dovish camp supporting a 50 basis point cut, a moderate camp favoring a 25 basis point cut, a group advocating for no change, and Cook possibly voting for a 25 basis point increase [13].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision-making environment has been complicated by personnel changes, particularly the court ruling allowing Governor Cook to remain in her position despite President Trump's attempt to dismiss her [1][2] - Cook, the first African American woman on the Federal Reserve Board, was previously a supporter of maintaining the current interest rates and resisting pressure to lower them [1] - The appointment of Milan, a new Fed governor nominated by Trump, has been confirmed by the Senate, allowing him to participate in the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting [2] Group 2 - Milan has a strong academic background and has previously criticized the Fed's monetary policies, indicating potential debates within the FOMC regarding interest rate decisions [2] - Market sentiment suggests that investors are anticipating a rate cut from the Fed, with discussions around the magnitude of the cut, which could lead to debates among committee members [2] - Concerns have been raised by economists about the potential for the Fed to lower interest rates below what is necessary for economic fundamentals, which could exacerbate inflation and increase long-term borrowing costs [3]

Group 1: Market Updates - The U.S. Department of Commerce has established a process to include more steel and aluminum derivative products under tariffs authorized by President Trump according to Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 [1] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.3% on Monday, reaching a one-week low, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield softened, indicating investor positioning for potential rate cuts ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [1] - Traders are fully betting on a 25 basis point rate cut during the FOMC meeting scheduled for September 16-17, with a 5% chance of a 50 basis point cut [1] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices resumed an upward trend on Monday, reaching a historical high before slightly retreating to below $3,680 per ounce, with short-term momentum indicating potential for a pullback [2] - If gold prices fall below the September 9 high of $3,674 per ounce, the next target will be $3,650 per ounce, followed by the September 11 low of $3,613 per ounce; a break below these levels will focus attention on $3,600 per ounce [2] - Conversely, if gold prices break above $3,682 per ounce, the next resistance level will be $3,700 per ounce [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The daily chart for gold (XAUUSD) shows a bullish bias with resistance at $3,688 and support at $3,675 [3] - The momentum is strong, with a quantitative cycle greater than 3 years and a reference value of ≥67.1% [3] Group 4: Currency Market Analysis - The daily chart for the Euro against the U.S. dollar (EURUSD) also shows a bullish bias, with resistance at 1.1783 and support at 1.1758 [4] - The momentum is moderate, with a quantitative cycle greater than 3 years and a reference value of ≥67.1% [4] Group 5: Key Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators to watch include Canada's August CPI month-on-month, U.S. August retail sales month-on-month, U.S. August industrial production month-on-month, and the U.S. September NAHB housing market index [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent personnel changes at the Federal Reserve, including the court ruling allowing Lisa Cook to remain and the Senate's approval of Stephen Miran, have added uncertainty to the upcoming interest rate decision, highlighting the political tensions surrounding the Fed's independence [1][2][3]. Group 1: Personnel Changes - The U.S. Court of Appeals upheld a lower court's decision, allowing Lisa Cook to participate in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, despite facing pressure from former President Trump [1]. - Stephen Miran's nomination to the Federal Reserve Board was narrowly approved by the Senate, with expectations that he will strengthen the dovish camp within the FOMC [1][3]. Group 2: Impact on Interest Rate Decisions - Market expectations are leaning towards a 25 basis point rate cut, but the addition of Cook and Miran introduces unpredictability, with some analysts suggesting a rare "four-way split" in voting could occur [4][5]. - The potential for a "circus-like" outcome in the FOMC's decision-making process could lead to chaotic signals regarding monetary policy, complicating market reactions [5]. Group 3: Voting Dynamics - The voting landscape may include a strong dovish faction represented by Miran, Waller, and Bowman, who could support a 50 basis point cut, while a moderate faction led by Chair Powell may favor a 25 basis point cut [7]. - Cook's unexpected vote could potentially lean towards a rate hike, reflecting her desire to assert independence amid political pressures [7].

编辑 | 格蕾丝 纳指标普联袂创新高，黄金突破3700美元 周一美股全线上扬，中美在西班牙马德里举行经贸会谈，市场等待即将召开的美联储政策会议，马斯克 增持特斯拉推动股价上升，带动标普和纳指再创历史新高。 截至收盘， 道指涨49.23点，涨幅为0.11%，报45883.45点，纳指涨0.94%，报22348.75点，标普500指数 涨0.47%，报6615.31点，首次站上6600点关口。 市场概述 据新华社报道，当地时间9月14日至15日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、 美国财政部长贝森特以及贸易代表格里尔在西班牙马德里举行会谈。双方以两国元首通话重要共识为引 领，就双方关注的经贸问题进行了坦诚、深入、富有建设性的沟通，就以合作方式妥善解决TikTok相 关问题、减少投资障碍、促进有关经贸合作等达成了基本框架共识。双方将就相关成果文件进行磋商， 并履行各自国内批准程序。何立峰表示，中方维护自身正当权益的决心坚定不移，将坚决维护国家利益 和海外中资企业的合法权益。 对于TikTok问题，中方将依法依规开展技术出口审批。同时，中国政府充分尊重我海外企业意愿，支持 企业在符合市场原则基础上， ...