Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown positive performance with a recent price increase and significant trading activity, indicating strong market interest and liquidity. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of July 15, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera increased by 0.34%, with a latest price of 112.53 yuan [1] - Over the past six months, the ETF has accumulated a total increase of 1.30% [1] - The ETF's latest scale reached 9.115 billion yuan, marking a one-year high [2] - The latest share count for the ETF is approximately 81.30 million, also a one-year high [3] Group 2: Market Activity - The ETF experienced a turnover rate of 14.88% with a trading volume of 1.36 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [1] - The average daily trading volume over the past week was 3.023 billion yuan [1] - There was a net inflow of 718 million yuan into the ETF, with four out of the last five trading days showing positive net inflows totaling 1.631 billion yuan [4] Group 3: Financial Data Insights - As of June 2025, the total social financing stock was 430.22 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.9% [3] - The balance of various RMB loans was 268.56 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [3] Group 4: Investment Trends - Leverage funds have been actively buying into the ETF, with a net purchase of 16.72 million yuan on the highest single day [5] - The ETF has shown a one-year net value increase of 13.47%, ranking 5th out of 410 index bond funds [5] Group 5: Risk and Fee Structure - The maximum drawdown since the ETF's inception is 6.89%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 1.28% [6] - The management fee for the ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [7] Group 6: Tracking Accuracy - The ETF has a tracking error of 0.036% over the past month, closely following the Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-year government bond index [8]

即将公布的美国通胀数据或将成为影响黄金走势的下一个关键因素。目前，市场普遍预期6月总体CPI 年率将从2.4%上升至2.7%，同时，6月核心CPI同比涨幅预计会达到3%，高于5月的2.8%。若实际数据 符合或超出这一预期，可能会强化市场对美联储维持高利率政策的预期，从而进一步对金价构成压力； 反之，如果通胀数据低于预期，则可能重新点燃市场对降息的期待，为黄金价格提供支撑。 此外，美联储主席鲍威尔的去留问题也开始引起市场的广泛关注。近期，特朗普政府频繁向美联储施 压，要求其降低利率。特朗普还特别指出了美联储总部大楼翻修项目超支的问题，并对此事表示质疑。 白宫经济顾问哈西特更是将超支的7亿美元责任直接归咎于美联储。尽管直接解雇鲍威尔的可能性不 大，但这种政治干预已经让市场感到不安，增加了不确定性。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 今日周二（7月15日)亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于775.36元附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂报777.30元/ 克，上涨0.15%，最高触及779.08元/克，最低下探775.84元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向震荡走 势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 沪金期货当前呈现震荡 ...

哈塞特的核心竞争力 63岁的哈塞特是至少四位美联储主席候选人之一，特朗普认为他们会比现任主席鲍威尔更响应自己的降 息诉求。在上周五被记者问及是否会解雇鲍威尔时，特朗普表示不会，但称鲍威尔"做得很糟糕"，并认 为利率应再降3个百分点。 据《华尔街邮报》报道，知情人士透露，白宫顶级经济顾问凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）正成为下任 美联储主席的主要候选人。当前，美国总统特朗普正考虑任命一位与自己立场更一致的美联储主席。 目前遴选过程仍存在变数，哈塞特未必能最终获任，但知情人士称，这位国家经济委员会（National Economic Council）主任、特朗普第一任期核心经济顾问，拥有其他候选人不具备的优势。 哈塞特曾担任经济顾问委员会主席，是保守派经济学家，曾在哥伦比亚大学任教，任职于美国企业研究 所等右翼智库，职业生涯早期曾在美联储担任经济学家。他公开主张降息，呼应特朗普"美联储应更支 持经济增长"的观点。 作为税收与投资关系专家，他为特朗普本月签署的大规模税收与支出法案提供了关键经济论证。 哈塞特与特朗普关系密切，为其效力近十年，是少数既能赢得总统青睐又始终获其信任的顾问之一。他 在特朗普第一任 ...

Group 1 - The US Supreme Court has cleared the way for the Trump administration to dismantle the Department of Education [1] - The European Union is preparing to impose additional counter-tariffs on US goods worth €72 billion (approximately $84 billion) if trade negotiations fail [1][2] - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey indicated that a rapid deterioration in the job market could lead to larger interest rate cuts, with an 80% probability of a 25 basis point cut in the next meeting [2] Group 2 - India's June CPI has slowed to 2.1% year-on-year, marking the eighth consecutive month of decline and providing more room for the central bank to ease monetary policy [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 88.14 points to close at 44,459.65, a gain of 0.20%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also saw slight increases [3] - The COMEX gold futures fell by 0.35% to $3,352.10 per ounce, and silver futures dropped by 1.40% to $38.41 per ounce [3]

Group 1: Dollar Performance and Market Sentiment - In the first half of 2025, the US dollar index fell by 10.7%, marking its worst performance since 1973[5] - In Q1, the "US vs Non-US" interest rate differential explained 91% of dollar fluctuations, but this dropped to 33% in Q2, with "de-dollarization" becoming the dominant market narrative[2] - A Bank of America survey in June indicated that market consensus on a weak dollar reached a 20-year high[5] Group 2: Hedging and Investment Behavior - Foreign investors are increasingly using foreign exchange derivatives to hedge risks rather than divesting from dollar-denominated assets[6] - From April onwards, there was a significant increase in short positions in dollar futures, with net positions shifting from long to short[6] - The demand for hedging has surged, as evidenced by the spike in EUR/USD risk reversal option prices, indicating heightened hedging needs[11] Group 3: Potential Reversal Opportunities for the Dollar - Four potential reversal opportunities for the weak dollar include: 1. Diminished market response to equivalent tariffs, potentially reducing dollar hedging demand[3] 2. The dollar index nearing long-term support levels reflecting US productivity advantages[3] 3. Changes in Trump's policies may reduce the motivation for new tariffs, potentially supporting the dollar[3] 4. Market interpretations of interest rate cuts could stimulate economic activity and support the dollar[3] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Risks include limited indicators for observing hedging demand in the dollar forex market and potential non-linear declines in US fundamentals[4] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's continued tariff pressures and interference with Federal Reserve independence poses additional risks[4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, and PX & PTA are still running in a relatively sluggish state. The polyester chain commodities are expected to continue to face pressure in the short term, with the prices in the PX - PTA segment likely to continue the downward trend and the risk of downstream negative feedback increasing [2][4]. - PX prices may continue to be under pressure due to the weakening of crude oil prices, the convergence of basis, and the expected compression of processing fees. PTA may maintain a weak and volatile pattern, with the decline of PX weakening cost support, and the weak downstream polyester demand and low processing fees limiting the downside space [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On July 11, the PX main contract closed at 6,694.0 yuan/ton, down 1.3% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 106.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,700.0 yuan/ton, down 0.89% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 50.0 yuan/ton. The weakening of crude oil prices suppresses the cost side, and the convergence of basis implies weakened spot support. With the expected compression of PX processing fees, prices may continue to be weak. PTA may maintain a weak and volatile pattern [3]. Polyester - On July 11, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,508.0 yuan/ton, down 0.52% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,660.0 yuan/ton, down 30.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 152.0 yuan/ton. The continuous decline of PX and PTA futures prices reflects the loosening of cost support and the pressure of loose supply. The 15 - day moving average trading volume of Light Textile City has decreased, indicating weakened downstream procurement demand. The inventory days of polyester filament varieties and short - fibers are significantly higher than the five - year average, highlighting the inventory pressure in the entire industrial chain [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **PX**: The main contract price of PX futures decreased by 1.30% to 6,694 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 17.19%, and the open interest increased by 1.95%. The spot prices in China's main port CFR and South Korea FOB remained unchanged. The PX basis increased by 488.89% to 106 yuan/ton [5]. - **PTA**: The main contract price of PTA futures decreased by 0.89% to 4,700 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 22.82%, and the open interest decreased by 2.69%. The spot price in China's main port CFR remained unchanged. The PTA basis increased by 525.00% to 50 yuan/ton. The PTA 5 - 9 spread decreased by 650.00%, and the PTA 9 - 1 spread increased by 216.67%. The PTA import profit increased by 0.33% [5]. - **Short - fiber**: The main contract price of short - fiber futures decreased by 0.52% to 6,508 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 25.78%, and the open interest decreased by 14.93%. The spot price in the East China market decreased by 0.45% to 6,660 yuan/ton. The PF basis increased by 2.70%. The PF 1 - 5 spread decreased by 84.62%, and the PF 5 - 9 spread increased [5]. - **Other prices**: The price of Brent crude oil's main contract remained unchanged at 68.88 dollars/barrel. The prices of CFR Japan naphtha, ethylene glycol remained unchanged. The prices of polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY all decreased [5]. - **Processing spreads**: The PX processing spread remained unchanged at 256.67 dollars/ton. The PTA processing spread increased by 1.62% to 141.03 yuan/ton. The processing spreads of polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester short - fibers, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY all decreased [6]. - **Light Textile City trading volume**: On July 10, the total trading volume was 438.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 7.98%, with 348.0 million meters of long - fiber fabric trading volume and 88.0 million meters of short - fiber fabric trading volume [9]. - **Industrial chain load rates**: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged at 75.86%, 89.42%, and 63.43% respectively [6]. - **Inventory days**: The inventory days of polyester short - fibers decreased by 0.63% to 7.94 days, while those of polyester POY, polyester FDY, and polyester DTY increased by 11.52%, 10.27%, and 2.80% respectively [6]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretations Macro Dynamics - On July 11, several Fed officials made statements. Musalem said the impact of tariffs on inflation may not be clear until the end of the year, and the US fiscal deficit may become a financial stability issue in the future. Daly considered implementing interest rate cuts in the fall and thought there would be two rate cuts this year. Waller reiterated the possible reasons for a rate cut in July. The Fed proposed to relax the supervision of large - scale banks. - On July 10, the Fed's June meeting minutes showed that officials were divided on rate cuts. Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates again. The National Bureau of Statistics announced that the CPI in June increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. The European Central Bank Governing Council member Nagel said the ECB should neither plan nor rule out further rate cuts [7]. Supply - Demand (Demand) - On July 10, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 438.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 7.98%, with 348.0 million meters of long - fiber fabric trading volume and 88.0 million meters of short - fiber fabric trading volume [9]. 3.4 Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - For PX, the main contract price decreased by 1.3%, closing at 6,694 yuan/ton with a basis of 106 yuan. The decline in crude oil prices may lead to a further decrease in PX prices. In the short term, PX may continue to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to the trends of crude oil and PX processing fees. - For PTA, the main contract price decreased by 0.89%, with a basis of 50 yuan. The decline in PX prices weakens the cost support for PTA. If the terminal consumption demand does not improve significantly, the demand for PTA may be limited. PTA may continue to be weak under the dual pressure of cost decline and weak demand, and attention should be paid to the downstream restocking trends [36].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, represented by Harker, indicates that it is very close to a neutral interest rate level and sees no urgent need for rate cuts [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is approaching a neutral interest rate, suggesting a stable economic outlook [1] - There is currently no pressing need for interest rate reductions, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1]

美联储哈玛克：我们已非常接近中性利率水平，目前尚无迫切降息的必要。 ...

美联储哈玛克：目前尚无迫切降息的必要。 ...

随着英镑兑美元汇率迈向两年来最长的连跌纪录，期权交易员正转为看空英镑。 在英国央行行长贝利周一暗示，如果就业市场恶化速度快于预期，可能会进行更大幅度的降息后，交易员们增加了对英国央行降息的 押注。货币市场目前定价年底前将有58个基点的降息，而上周五时约为51个基点。 本周，所有人的目光都将聚焦于一系列关键数据，包括来自英国和美国的通胀报告，以及英国的劳动力数据。 周一，英镑兑美元一度下跌0.3%，至三周低点1.3452美元。若收盘走低，将标志着连续第七个交易日下跌，是自2023年7月以来最长 的一次。 早些时候的数据显示，英国经济在5月份意外萎缩0.1%，凸显出经济增长面临的下行风险。这进一步强化了市场预期：除非6月通胀数 据出现意外表现，否则英国央行将在8月降息。 Monex分析师在一份报告中指出，受上周五公布的疲弱GDP数据影响，英镑可能面临进一步的下跌压力。分析师表示，稳定的通胀可 能会在短期内为英镑提供一些支撑。但从中期来看，财政紧缩、疲软的劳动力市场数据以及月度GDP的收缩，都预示着英镑仍将面临 持续压力。 衡量看涨和看跌期权需求差异的一个月期风险逆转指标目前正反映出自2月份以来最负面的前景，该指标 ...