Core Insights - The global cryptocurrency market has experienced a significant rebound, with altcoins like Dogecoin (DOGE) and Ethereum (ETH) driving Bitcoin (BTC) prices to surpass $109,000 for the first time in three weeks, nearing its historical peak from May [1][3][5] Market Performance - Dogecoin has surged over 8% in the past 24 hours, reaching $0.171, while Ethereum has also seen a price increase, breaking the $2,590 mark with a daily gain close to 8% [3] - Bitcoin's price briefly exceeded $109,200, marking a more than 3% increase from the previous day, and it approached a high of $109,600, remaining about 2% shy of its May peak of $111,814 [3][5] Investor Sentiment - The upward momentum in Bitcoin is attributed to optimistic expectations regarding the approval of cryptocurrency ETFs and improved liquidity expectations due to macroeconomic policy shifts [3][5] - Recent positive signals from the U.S. regulatory environment, including Ripple's application for a national bank charter, are seen as steps towards further integration of the crypto industry with traditional finance [5][7] Economic Context - The overall strength in risk assets is reflected in the recent historical highs of tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500, indicating a broader market recovery [7] - Despite the strong performance in the cryptocurrency market, uncertainties in the macroeconomic landscape persist, including challenges in U.S. budget proposals and ongoing geopolitical tensions [5][7] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that many tokens may reach new highs in the second half of the year, driven by increased regulatory transparency and the Federal Reserve's accommodative policies potentially boosting risk asset prices [5][7] - The XBIT decentralized exchange has gained traction in this bullish market, offering zero-fee trading and high liquidity, which enhances trading efficiency and attracts DeFi users [7]

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/7/3 08:00 | 2025/7/2 15:00 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 44484.42 | 44494.94 | -10.520 | -0.024 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 20393.13 | 20202.89 | 190.240 | 0.942 | | 标普500 | | 6227.42 | 6198.01 | 29.410 | 0.475 | | 恒生指数 | | 24221.41 | 24072.28 | 149.130 | 0.620 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.37 | 1.37 | -0.002 | -0.146 | | 美元指数 | | 96.75 | 96.78 | -0.032 | -0.033 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.17 | 7.17 | 0 | 0 | | 主力合约 | | 2025/7/2 | 2025/7/1 | 涨 ...

Report Information - Report Date: July 3, 2025 [2] - Industry: Treasury Bonds [1] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - After the month - end, the funds continued to be loose, and treasury bond futures recovered and rose. The yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined across the board. The short - end declined by 1 - 2bp, and the long - end fluctuated less than 1bp. The funds became looser after the quarter - end, and there was a net withdrawal in the open market. In July, short - term bond varieties in the bond market may have more certainty. The short - term 2 - year and 5 - year varieties may perform relatively better [8][9][11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures recovered and rose due to loose funds. The yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined across the board, with the short - end down 1 - 2bp and the long - end fluctuating less than 1bp. The 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 yield reported 1.6385%, down 0.35bp [8][9] - **Funding Market**: After the quarter - end, funds became looser, and there was a net withdrawal in the open market. There were 3653 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 985 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2668 billion yuan. Short - term inter - bank fund rates declined across the board [10] - **Conclusion**: In July, short - term bond varieties in the bond market may have more certainty. Although the marginal slowdown of export rush still supports the economy, the progress of tariff negotiations is slow but there is no further conflict escalation. The tone of the Politburo meeting in July may continue that of April, and the policy stimulus may be limited. The supply pressure in July has increased significantly, but there is a possibility that the central bank will restart treasury bond trading, which may support the stable and loose funding situation. The short - term 2 - year and 5 - year varieties may perform relatively better [11][12] 2. Industry News - The Minister of Finance called on developed countries to fulfill official development assistance commitments and climate financing obligations, improve the voice of developing countries in the international financial architecture, and promote trade and investment liberalization and facilitation [13] - Sichuan Province issued measures to support urban village and dilapidated building renovation projects to seek central budget investment and special bonds, and strive for central budget investment and ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds [13] - In June, the manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all rebounded, indicating that China's economic prosperity remained in the expansion range [13] - The central bank's monetary policy committee suggested increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation and improving its forward - looking, targeted, and effectiveness. It also proposed to increase the revitalization of existing commercial housing and land [14] - A central bank monetary policy committee member said that virtual assets, digital assets, and traditional financial assets will coexist in the long term. Digital assets are a major development trend, and there is a possibility of issuing stablecoins pegged to the offshore RMB in Hong Kong [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report presents data on treasury bond futures trading on July 2, including contract prices, trading volumes, and positions. It also mentions the spread between different contracts and the trend of the main contracts [6] - **Money Market**: The report shows the changes in SHIBOR term structure, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged repo weighted interest rate, and silver - deposit inter - bank pledged repo rate [28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: The report includes the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixed - rate curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curve (mean) [34]

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasizes the need to optimize capital market mechanisms, focusing on financing, mergers, and acquisitions to promote efficient resource allocation [2] - The People's Bank of China mandates that institutions involved in precious metals and gem transactions report cash transactions of 100,000 RMB or more for anti-money laundering purposes, but this does not affect card payments [2] - The U.S. ADP employment report shows a surprising decrease of 33,000 jobs in June, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, with service sector jobs experiencing the largest decline since the pandemic [2] Group 2 - The European Commission President meets with China's Foreign Minister, discussing the importance of the upcoming China-EU leaders' meeting and the need for deepening economic cooperation [3] - The Chinese government allocates over 300 billion RMB to support the third batch of "two heavy" construction projects, completing the annual allocation of 800 billion RMB [3] Group 3 - The A-share market experiences a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.09% and the Shenzhen Component down 0.61%, while the market turnover reaches 1.41 trillion RMB [5] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closes up 0.62%, with significant inflows from southbound funds totaling 5.036 billion HKD [6] - In June, 751 private equity firms conducted research on A-share listed companies, indicating strong interest from institutional investors [7] Group 4 - Six banks are currently awaiting IPO approval in China, with Dongguan Bank and Nanhai Rural Commercial Bank updating their financial documents for review [8] - PwC raises its forecast for the number of IPOs and fundraising amounts in Hong Kong for 2023, expecting 90-100 IPOs and 200-220 billion HKD in capital raised [8] Group 5 - The logistics industry in China shows signs of expansion, with the logistics industry prosperity index rising to 50.8% in June, marking a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month [10] - The non-auto insurance sector is set to enter a "reporting and operation integration" era, with new regulations aimed at addressing long-standing industry issues [11] Group 6 - The first batch of 10 technology innovation bond ETFs has been approved, tracking various indices related to AAA-rated technology bonds [12] - In June, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.26 million units, a year-on-year increase of 29% [12] Group 7 - The domestic bond market continues to perform strongly, with major interest rate bonds seeing slight declines in yields and a collective rise in government bond futures [23] - Schroders upgrades its outlook for global corporate bonds from "negative" to "neutral," maintaining a positive view on global equities [23]

原文如下： 立法会五题：推动稳定币的发展 以下是今日(七月二日)在立法会会议上吴杰庄议员的提问和财经事务及库务局局长许正宇的答覆： 问题： 本年五月通过的《稳定币条例草案》旨在于香港设立法币稳定币发行人的发牌及监管制度。有意见认为 这是全球Web3发展的里程碑，也是香港成为国际Web3中心的重要一步。就此，政府可否告知本会： 7月2日，香港财经事务及库务局局长许正宇就立法会会议上吴杰庄议员的提问答覆表示，今年五月，立 法会通过了《稳定币条例草案》，为香港引入锚定法定货币的稳定币发行人发牌制度。条例进一步完善 香港数字资产活动的监管框架，以保障货币和金融稳定，并巩固提升香港国际金融中心的地位。《稳定 币条例》将于今年八月一日生效，届时香港金融管理局(金管局)将开始接受牌照申请。目前，金管局正 就落实条例的具体指引进行市场谘询，争取尽快订立指引。 (一)如何推动稳定币应用场景的拓展，包括推动稳定币发行机构与内地应用场景连结，以促进稳定币从 监管合规到商业生态落地; 香港的稳定币发行人发牌制度具灵活性和开放性，允许持牌发行人可选择不同法币币种，作为发行稳定 币的锚定法币。欢迎全球不同地方的机构按实际业务需要申请牌照 ...

Group 1 - The technology sector continues to decline, with the fintech sector experiencing increased losses, as evidenced by the performance of the Huaxia Fintech ETF (516100), which fell by 1.87% [1] - The stablecoin market is dominated by USD stablecoins, which are expected to play a crucial role in the financial competition among countries, with the emergence of stablecoins based on other fiat currencies like Euro, Australian Dollar, British Pound, Japanese Yen, and Hong Kong Dollar [1] - Hong Kong is proactively embracing the global digital asset trend, with stablecoins being a key focus, as highlighted by the recent release of the "Hong Kong Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0," which aims to solidify its position as a global digital asset hub [1] Group 2 - The Huaxia Fintech ETF (516100) tracks the CSI Fintech Theme Index, which includes sectors such as software development, internet finance, and the digital currency industry, featuring major stocks like Tonghuashun, Dongfang Caifu, and Runhe Software [2] - The ETF has a stablecoin content of 23.43%, the highest among all ETFs in the market, indicating a significant focus on stablecoin-related investments [2]

Market Overview - On June 30, the Hong Kong stock market experienced a slight pullback, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 212 points or 0.9% to close at 24,072 points. The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.7% to 5,302 points. The total market turnover was HKD 242.2 billion, with a net inflow of HKD 5.22 billion through the Stock Connect [1] - Key blue-chip stocks in sectors such as banking, insurance, and the internet generally retreated, while consumer, telecommunications, and industrial blue-chip stocks rose. Notably, the biopharmaceutical, media entertainment, gold retail, and digital asset sectors performed well [1] Macro Dynamics - In the U.S., May PCE and core PCE rose by 2.3% and 2.7% year-on-year, respectively, showing a slight recovery from April. The actual year-on-year growth rate of personal disposable income for U.S. residents fell to 1.7%, while actual year-on-year growth in personal consumption expenditures slowed to 2.2%, the lowest since February of the previous year [2] - In China, new home sales continued to decline year-on-year, with a reported 2.99 million square meters sold in 30 major cities, down 24.7% year-on-year [2] Industry Dynamics - In the consumer sector, the stock price of Lao Pu Gold (6181 HK) rose by 15% after the expiration of a one-year lock-up period, driven by the opening of new stores in Shanghai and Singapore. The current valuation is approximately 40 times the 2025 earnings [3] - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index increased by 0.8%, with the National Healthcare Security Administration recently issuing guidelines for the adjustment of the basic medical insurance directory and innovative drug directory for commercial health insurance [4] - The renewable energy sector saw a general decline in Hong Kong stocks, but the photovoltaic sector performed well, with companies like Xinyi Solar (968 HK) and Flat Glass Group (6865 HK) rising by 4.2% to 7.6% [5] Strategic Outlook - The report from Zhongtai International forecasts a bullish outlook for the Hong Kong stock market in 2025, driven by a technical bull market and favorable policies. The Hang Seng Index is expected to have a target price adjustment from 23,000 points to 24,500 points by the end of the year, with an anticipated increase in earnings per share of 8.5% and 8.3% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [6] - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock market is likely to attract cross-market capital flows due to a weaker U.S. dollar and valuation opportunities, with a net inflow of HKD 708.1 billion from southbound funds from the beginning of the year to the end of June [8] - The report identifies ten key stocks for the second half of the year, including Tencent (700 HK), SMIC (981 HK), and China Ping An (2318 HK) [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of Hong Kong's entertainment and financial sectors, highlighting the resilience and adaptability of its people in the face of changing economic conditions and opportunities. Group 1: Entertainment Industry - The trend of Hong Kong entertainers, including TVB stars, engaging in live streaming and promotional activities reflects a shift towards "re-employment" in the face of economic challenges [2][4][10]. - Notable figures like Wu Zhaoxu and Guo Jinan, despite their wealth, are actively participating in these new ventures, showcasing a blend of nostalgia and modernity in their approach [10][11]. - The "Lion Rock Spirit" embodies the hardworking and resilient nature of Hong Kong people, driving them to seize opportunities even in later stages of their careers [11][12]. Group 2: Financial Environment - According to the UBS Global Wealth Report, Hong Kong ranks third globally in terms of per capita wealth, with an average of 4.72 million HKD [8]. - The financial landscape in Hong Kong is characterized by high financial freedom, allowing investors to engage in various investment opportunities, including stocks and derivatives [17][18]. - The "Carry Trade" strategy, referred to as "港男港女" trading, capitalizes on the interest rate differentials between HKD and USD, providing significant profit opportunities for financial institutions [27][30]. Group 3: Digital Asset Market - Hong Kong is positioning itself as a global hub for digital assets, with government initiatives supporting the development of a compliant ecosystem for cryptocurrencies [46][50]. - The introduction of regulatory frameworks for digital currencies, including stablecoins, is set to create new investment avenues for local investors [49][50]. - The government's proactive stance in fostering a digital asset market contrasts with the restrictions in mainland China, highlighting Hong Kong's unique position in the financial landscape [45][49].

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong has established itself as a leading international financial center, leveraging its unique advantages and robust financial ecosystem, particularly in the context of its relationship with mainland China and its role in global finance [6][10][30]. Group 1: Financial Strength of Hong Kong - Hong Kong ranks as the third global financial center and the top in Asia, following New York and London, with a market capitalization of 40.9 trillion HKD and an IPO financing scale exceeding 60 billion HKD in 2025 [6]. - The asset and wealth management sector in Hong Kong exceeds 30 trillion HKD, with private equity fund management reaching over 230 billion USD, making it the second largest in Asia [7]. Group 2: Connectivity and Market Access - Hong Kong serves as a bridge to mainland China and is the largest offshore RMB business center, with RMB deposits exceeding 1 trillion CNY and accounting for over 70% of global offshore RMB payments [10][13]. - The Stock Connect programs (Shanghai-Hong Kong and Shenzhen-Hong Kong) have significantly increased foreign investment in mainland stocks, with total investments exceeding 3 trillion CNY, and daily trading volumes reaching 150.1 billion CNY and 482 billion HKD respectively in 2024 [10]. Group 3: Structure of the Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong stock market comprises over 2,600 listed companies, categorized into local stocks, Chinese stocks, and international stocks, with Chinese stocks making up approximately 47% of the total listings and 70% of the market capitalization [15][17]. - Chinese stocks are further divided into Red Chips, H-shares, and P Chips, with H-shares alone accounting for 384 companies and a market capitalization exceeding 70 trillion HKD [20][21]. Group 4: Future Innovations and Developments - Hong Kong is actively pursuing financial innovations, including the implementation of a Stablecoin Regulation by August 2025, which aims to enhance its position as a financial innovation hub [26]. - The city is also focusing on sustainable finance, with plans to expand its sustainable finance classification and align local standards with international sustainability disclosure standards by the end of 2024 [28]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The strong performance of the Hong Kong stock market in 2023 reflects an improving asset allocation value in China, attracting global investors interested in sectors like AI and technology [27]. - The introduction of new capital investor entry plans is expected to bring in over 24 billion HKD in investments, further enhancing Hong Kong's appeal as a financial destination [26].

Core Insights - Ant Group's technology division has opened four self-developed technologies to the Hong Kong market, aiming to support the establishment of a global digital asset innovation center [1] Group 1 - The four technologies include Layer2 network, large model development tools, "Blockchain + IoT" trusted architecture, and institutional-level Web3 wallet technology [1] - Ant Group has joined the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's Ensemble sandbox as a core member [1] - The company has announced the establishment of its overseas headquarters in Hong Kong [1]