Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent movements in gold and silver prices, influenced by U.S. Treasury yields and the strength of the U.S. dollar, alongside expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Gold Market Insights - On December 9, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.1670%, while the 2-year yield was at 3.5810% [1][4]. - Spot gold experienced a decline of 0.15%, closing at $4190.68 per ounce, after initially dropping by $30 [1][4]. - Spot silver fell by 0.25%, ending at $58.15 per ounce [1][4]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members have differing opinions on upcoming decisions, but there is a consensus that a 25 basis point rate cut is expected with a probability of about 100% [1][4]. Gold Price Trends - The gold market opened at $4197.4 per ounce, reached a high of $4219.1, and then fell to a low of $4175.9 before closing at $4190.7 [5][6]. - The daily candlestick formed a spinning top pattern, indicating potential for further price movement [6]. - The market is currently under pressure but remains within a trading range, with resistance levels at $4200-$4220 and support levels at $4175-$4160 [6]. Nasdaq Index Insights - The Nasdaq index opened at $25730.39, dipped to $25661.88, peaked at $25824.35, and then fell to a low of $25525.84, closing at $25666.78 [2][6]. - The daily candlestick also formed a spinning top pattern, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend [6]. - Despite a drop from recent highs, there are signs of stabilization, with resistance levels at $25739-$25850 and support levels at $25620-$25500 [6].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中美豆采购开启，但近日美国市场对于美豆出口乐观前景出现质疑，疲软的出口装 | | 豆粕 | | 船同比数据，导致美豆高位陷入整理。本周最新大豆及豆粕库存环比减少，但同比 | | ★ | 短线调整 | 偏高，短期供应暂充足。美农 12 月报告公布前夕，市场预期报告偏利空，全球及 | | | | 美豆期末库存会有环比调增的可能。昨日国内豆粕下跌。美农报告公布前预计暂维 | | | | 持偏空调整行情。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，但港口库存依然同比偏高，消费淡季下现 | | 菜粕 | | 货降价去库。基本面暂无大波动预期。远期供需层面偏强，但近端港口库存同比偏 | | ★ | 短线调整 | 高存在压力。昨日菜粕跟随豆粕价格下跌。短期走势暂以 2270 元以上区间行情对 | | | | 待。关注美农 12 月报告及中加贸易后续进展。 | | | | 11 月马棕榈油前 30 日出口数据维持弱势，产量环比略减，降幅不及出口。11 月下 | | 棕榈油 | | 旬东南亚洪灾泛滥，引发市场对于棕榈油进入减 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 12月9日早盘收盘，国内期货主力合约涨少跌多。多晶硅涨超2%，纤维板、生猪涨超1%；下跌方面， 工业硅跌超3%，焦炭、燃油、焦煤、原油、低硫燃油、玻璃跌超2%。 | 名称 14.85 是价格的窗 13.2 子 第份 工作 20 0 | | 取年 | 成交量 | 持色 | 日博会 | 项目 | 量高 | 最长 | 开盘 | 昨收 | 昨特 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 S & G 2801 pe 2601 SEDDI 42.32% 41245 SSOOD SUDES 74 | | 14 | 15524 | 758 92 | -3875 | 2.63% | 165559 | 54115 | PAGES | 2 सर चार | 63755 | | 1272.0 ·1.27% ·16.0 1271.5 1272.0 21 2 | | 14 | 366 | 0.07 | +45 | 1.33% | 1276.5 | 1251 ...

社库小幅去化，消费存在刚性 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-09 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21920元/吨，较上一交易日变化-170元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-90元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-10元/吨；中原A00铝价21770元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-10元/吨至-240元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录21810元/吨，较上一交易日变化-160元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化0元/吨至-195元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-08日沪铝主力合约开于22215元/吨，收于22275元/吨，较上一交易日变化60元/吨，最 高价达22290元/吨，最低价达到22035元/吨。全天交易日成交251604手，全天交易日持仓233139手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-08，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存59.5万吨，较上一期变化-0.1万吨，仓单库存67736 吨，较上一交易日变化903吨，LME铝库存525800吨，较上一交易日变化-2500吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-08SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2790元/吨，山东价格录得2755元/吨，河南价格录得 282 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-09 需求有所回升，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11385元/吨，较前交易日变动+0.00元/吨，幅度+0.00%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.30元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.07元/公斤，现货基差 LH03-85，较前交易日变动-90；江苏地区 外三元生猪价格 11.40元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.01元/公斤，现货基差LH03+15，较前交易日变动+20；四川地 区外三元生猪价格11.46元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.11元/公斤，现货基差LH03+75，较前交易日变动+230。 据农业农村部监测，12月8日"农产品批发价格200指数"为129.26，比上周五上升0.48个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为131.98，比上周五上升0.57个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.66元/公斤，比上周五下降0.1%； 牛肉66.03元/公斤，比上周五下降0.3%；羊肉62.71元/公斤，比上周五下降0.8%；鸡蛋7.32元/公斤，比上周五下降 1.6%；白条鸡17.26元/公斤，比上周五下降1.3%。 市 ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-12-09 到港压力仍大，关注MTO动态 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 跨品种：无 风险 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润590元/吨（-13）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1995元/吨（-13），内蒙北线基差506元/吨（-25），内蒙南线2000元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2230元/吨（+5），鲁 南基差341元/吨（-7）；河南2110元/吨（-35），河南基差221元/吨（-47）；河北2175元/吨（+0），河北基差346元/吨 （-12）。隆众内地工厂库存361320吨（-12392），西北工厂库存205000吨（-4000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单239715 吨（+9005），西北工厂待发订单128500吨（+15000）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2080元/吨（-5），太仓基差-9元/吨（-17），CFR中国241美元/吨（-4），华东进口价差-12元/吨 （+7），常州甲醇2325元/吨；广东甲醇2075元/吨（+0），广东基差-14元/吨（-12）。隆众港口总库存1349430吨（-14070）， 江苏港口库存703300吨（ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the Comex premium persists, and the inventory levels in Shanghai and London remain relatively low. Coupled with the upcoming Fed rate cut, copper prices may continue to fluctuate in a relatively strong pattern. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging between RMB 91,500/ton and RMB 92,000/ton, while arbitrage is put on hold and short put options are suggested [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On December 8, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at RMB 92,520/ton and closed at RMB 92,970/ton, up 0.20% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at RMB 92,820/ton and closed at RMB 92,400/ton, down 0.61% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper to the current 2512 contract was between RMB 20/ton - RMB 240/ton, with an average premium of RMB 130/ton, down RMB 40 from the previous trading day. The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was between RMB 92,040 - RMB 92,560/ton. The intraday procurement sentiment declined significantly, and the sales sentiment slightly increased, causing the spot premium of Shanghai copper to fall. It is expected that spot transactions will still be at a premium, but as copper prices continue to rise, the number of downstream orders decreases, and the premium is expected to face pressure [2]. Important Information Summary Macro and Geopolitical Aspects - The Fed's December interest rate meeting is approaching. The market generally believes that the Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points again. The market will closely watch Powell's press - conference Q&A session and the last "dot - plot" of the year. Regarding the rate - cut amplitude and the number of future rate cuts, Hassett, a potential candidate for the new Fed chairman, believes that data should be closely monitored, and actions should be taken prudently [3]. Economic Data - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the October Producer Price Index (PPI). Due to the government shutdown, the collection of October data is delayed. According to its website, the Bureau plans to announce the October data together in the November 2025 PPI press release on January 14, 2026 [3]. Mining End - On December 5, Askari Metals announced a successful fundraising of $1.15 million and appointed a new director to accelerate its mineral exploration projects in Ethiopia and Namibia. The funds will be mainly used for the exploration of two core projects: the Nejo copper - gold project in Ethiopia and the Uis lithium - tin - tantalum - rubidium project in Namibia. On December 8, customs data showed that in November 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2.526 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January - November were 27.614 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0% [4]. Smelting and Imports - On December 8, customs data showed that in November 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January - November were 4.883 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%. LME copper inventory increased last week, reaching a six - month high on December 4 and then slightly declining, with the latest inventory at 162,550 tons. SHFE copper inventory continued to decline last week, falling 9.22% to 88,905 tons, a three - month low. International copper inventory decreased by 573 tons to 11,504 tons. New York copper inventory continued to accumulate, reaching a new high at 436,853 tons [5]. Consumption - In the past week, the State Grid's December tender volume decreased by 20% month - on - month. After copper prices exceeded RMB 91,000/ton, cable enterprises only fulfilled previous long - term orders. The new tender price transmission coefficient was only 0.6, and some enterprises replaced copper cables with aluminum cables, with the estimated substitution ratio rising to 8%. In the home appliance sector, the domestic sales production plan of air conditioners was reduced by 6%, and copper tube procurement was based on "production according to sales". The copper material procurement volume of Midea and Gree in December decreased by 12% month - on - month. The demand for copper strips in refrigerators and microwaves increased slightly due to good export orders. In the automotive sector, the copper consumption of new energy vehicles continued to increase, with a per - vehicle copper consumption of 83 kg and an 11 - month production increase of 35% year - on - year, offsetting the decline of traditional vehicles. However, high - voltage wiring harness enterprises, due to copper accounting for more than 60% of costs, have jointly applied to vehicle manufacturers for a price - linkage mechanism, otherwise they will reduce production to ensure profits. Photovoltaic and data centers have become new highlights. Morgan Stanley predicts that the copper demand of data centers in 2026 will be 475,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30%, but high copper prices have forced some projects to postpone tenders, slowing the short - term demand pace [5][6]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 275 tons to 164,550 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 980 tons to 29,956 tons. On December 8, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 160,300 tons, an increase of 1400 tons compared with the previous week [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand of PVC and caustic soda is weak, with cost support emerging in the PVC market and caustic soda prices continuing to decline [1][3] - For PVC, pay attention to subsequent device maintenance and macro - policy dynamics; for caustic soda, focus on liquid chlorine price trends and caustic soda device dynamics [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures and Basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4431 yuan/ton (+5), the East China basis is - 41 yuan/ton (-25), and the South China basis is - 21 yuan/ton (-45) [1] - **Spot Prices**: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4390 yuan/ton (-20), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is 4410 yuan/ton (-40) [1] - **Upstream Production Profits**: The semi - coke price is 800 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2905 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 25 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 1019 yuan/ton (-139), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 472 yuan/ton (-8), and the PVC export profit is - 4.4 dollars/ton (+6.3) [1] - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PVC factory inventory is 32.6 tons (+0.3), social inventory is 52.9 tons (+0.1), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate is 82.09% (-0.12%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate is 71.92% (+0.80%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 79.01% (+0.16%) [1] - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 69.8 tons (+2.9) [1] Caustic Soda - **Futures and Basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract of caustic soda is 2124 yuan/ton (+24), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 95 yuan/ton (-87) [1] - **Spot Prices**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 710 yuan/ton (-20), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda is 1180 yuan/ton (-20) [1] - **Upstream Production Profits**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1198 yuan/ton (-63); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 593.8 yuan/ton (-62.5); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 513.21 yuan/ton (-92.50); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 399.00 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 50.48 tons (+3.50), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 3.37 tons (+0.10), and the caustic soda operating rate is 86.00% (+1.00%) [2] - **Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of alumina is 86.20% (+0.14%), the operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 64.46% (-1.06%), and the operating rate of viscose staple fiber is 91.29% (+0.00%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply is abundant with only one enterprise planning maintenance this week, but some enterprises may cut production due to low prices [3] - Downstream demand is weak with stable film production and declining pipe and profile production, and rigid procurement [3] - Upstream production profits are at a low level year - on - year, and the cost of calcium carbide has increased [3] - The number of PVC futures warehouse receipts is at a high level, and the export profit has decreased [3] Caustic Soda - Spot prices have fallen due to lower purchase prices from Shandong downstream enterprises [3] - Supply is increasing with reduced enterprise maintenance and new production capacity coming on - stream [3] - Demand is weak with some alumina plants reducing purchases and non - aluminum demand turning weak in the off - season [3] - Inventory is accumulating, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a low level [3] Strategy PVC - **Single - side Trading**: Cautiously bearish, with limited downside space [4] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4] - **Cross - variety Trading**: No strategy [4] Caustic Soda - **Single - side Trading**: Cautiously bearish, with limited downside space [5] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] - **Cross - variety Trading**: No strategy [5]

丙烯日报 | 2025-12-09 供应持续宽松，成本端支撑有限 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5819元/吨（+1），丙烯华东现货价6000元/吨（+10），丙烯华北现货价6090元/吨（+40）， 丙烯华东基差181元/吨（+9），丙烯华北基差125元/吨（+19）。丙烯开工率74%（+0%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR187美元/吨（-4），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR54美元/吨（+0），进口利润-353元/吨（-10），厂内库存47890吨（-1080）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率40%（-1.98%），生产利润-340元/吨（-40）；环氧丙烷开工率76%（+1%），生产利润-190 元/吨（-93）；正丁醇开工率74%（-8%），生产利润442元/吨（-45）；辛醇开工率74%（-7%），生产利润693元/吨（-29）； 丙烯酸开工率78%（+1%），生产利润415元/吨（-7）；丙烯腈开工率81%（+0%），生产利润-606元/吨（-78）；酚酮 开工率82%（+1%），生产利润-977元/吨（-150）。 市场分析 供应端东莞巨正源、山东滨华PDH装置存重启预期， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][7][10] Group 2: Report Core Views - **Cotton**: In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to continue range - bound. In the long - term, with the expansion of downstream production capacity and low expected imports, the supply - demand situation may not be too loose after the seasonal pressure, and cotton prices can be viewed optimistically. Attention should be paid to the change of the cotton target price policy next year [3] - **Sugar**: The fundamental driving force is still downward, but the current valuation is low, and sugar mills at the beginning of the crushing season have the willingness to support prices. The short - term decline of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, but the impact of the capital side on the market should be noted [7] - **Pulp**: Due to the gradual digestion of previous negative factors, the pulp futures price has risen strongly recently. However, the lack of substantial improvement in the supply - demand side may limit the upward space of pulp prices. Attention should be paid to the impact of the remaining Russian needle warehouse receipts on the market [10] Group 3: Summary by Cotton - related Content Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,750 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,847 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton from the previous day; the national average price was 15,009 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Export: In October, Australia's cotton export volume was about 206,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.8% and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%. From August 2025 to July 2026, the cumulative export volume was about 549,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. China was the largest export destination, accounting for 32.6% [1] Market Analysis - International: USDA significantly increased the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season, while the consumption only slightly increased, leading to a significant rise in the global ending inventory. The sales pressure of US cotton has increased, and there is a possibility of export target reduction. Short - term ICE US cotton is under pressure, and in the long - term, it is in a low - valuation range [2] - Domestic: In the 2025/26 season, domestic cotton is expected to continue to increase in production. With the approaching end of cotton harvesting in Xinjiang, the supply is abundant in the short - term, and the upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted by hedging orders. The downstream demand is weak, but the improvement of spinning profit limits the downward space of cotton prices [2] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term range - bound, and optimistic in the long - term after seasonal pressure. Focus on the cotton target price policy next year [3] Group 4: Summary by Sugar - related Content Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5337 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5410 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5345 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [4] - Export: Brazil exported 3.3023 million tons of sugar and molasses in November, a year - on - year decrease of 2.59% [4] - Sugar mill operation: From December 6th to 8th, 6 new sugar mills in Guangxi started production. As of now, 55 sugar mills have started production in the 2025/26 crushing season in Guangxi, 13 less than the same period last year [4] Market Analysis - International: The global high - yield pattern suppresses the raw sugar market, but the downward space is limited in the short - term, and there is no sign of reversal in the short - and medium - term [5] - Domestic: Domestic sugar production is expected to increase for the third year. The supply is increasing seasonally, and the import pressure remains high. The control of syrup has become stricter, but the import reduction in October was lower than expected [5][6] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term decline is limited, but the impact of the capital side should be noted [7] Group 5: Summary by Pulp - related Content Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2601 contract yesterday was 5392 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton from the previous day [8] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; the price of Russian needle pulp was 5005 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton from the previous day [8] Market Analysis - Supply: There are continuous news of overseas pulp mills' shutdown and maintenance. Domtar permanently closed a paper mill, and Finns Group's Rauma pulp mill will have a temporary shutdown [9] - Demand: European port pulp inventory decreased in October, showing some improvement in demand. In China, there is over - capacity in the paper industry, low paper mill operating rates, and high port inventories [9] Strategy - Neutral. The upward space of pulp prices may be limited due to the lack of substantial improvement in the supply - demand side. Attention should be paid to the impact of the remaining Russian needle warehouse receipts [10]