Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The global trade tension shows signs of easing, weakening the safe - haven demand for gold, but the risk of global economic recession and central bank interest - rate cut expectations support the gold price. The mid - line upward trend of gold remains good, while silver is relatively weak due to industrial demand pressure [4]. - After the Fed's hawkish interest - rate cut on December 18, 2024, the gold price started a new round of rise. Although it experienced an adjustment in early April, the safe - haven demand from the restructuring of the global trade and monetary system and the global economic recession pushed the price up and broke through the upper track of the mid - level upward trend. The gold price still has upward momentum, but its volatility has increased [5]. 3) Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: London gold is running weakly in the range of $3250 - 3350 per ounce. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - position mindset, but reduce positions to avoid risks during the May Day holiday in China. Silver is relatively weak [4]. - **Mid - line Market**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut in December 2024, the gold price rose again. In early April, it adjusted due to Trump's tariff policy, and then rebounded. It is recommended that investors mainly go long at low prices with medium positions [5]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market Data**: Data of Shanghai Gold Index, Shanghai Silver Index, Gold T + D, and Silver T + D, including pre - closing price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, change rate, open interest, and change in open interest, are provided [5]. II. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - Charts include Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis to Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][13]. III. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - There is a divergence between the US and China on tariff negotiations. The US Treasury Secretary and Agriculture Secretary have different statements [15]. - The IMF - World Bank Spring Meeting failed to solve the problem of Trump's tariff offensive. The IMF is slightly optimistic about the economic impact of US high tariffs, but private - sector forecasts show a higher probability of economic recession [15]. - The US business activity in April slowed to a 16 - month low, and prices rose, increasing concerns about stagflation. Trump's trade policy has raised the average effective tariff rate, and anti - immigration measures have damaged exports [16]. - Global trade risks and policy uncertainty are among the top potential risks in the US financial system, according to a Fed survey [16]. - US consumer confidence declined for the fourth consecutive month in April, and inflation expectations are at a high level [16].

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down before the market opens, with Dow futures down 0.06%, S&P 500 futures down 0.12%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.07% [1] - Major European indices show positive performance, with Germany's DAX up 0.52%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.11%, France's CAC40 up 0.72%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.50% [2][3] - WTI crude oil is down 0.33% at $62.81 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is down 0.36% at $65.56 per barrel [3][4] Economic Data and Corporate Earnings - The upcoming week is significant for economic data and corporate earnings, with the April non-farm payroll report and Q1 inflation data being key focuses [5] - 180 S&P 500 companies are set to report quarterly earnings, with major companies like Apple, Amazon, Coca-Cola, Eli Lilly, Meta, Microsoft, and Chevron in the spotlight [5] Corporate Actions - Spirit AeroSystems has reached an agreement with Airbus for the acquisition of certain assets, with Boeing repurchasing its previously divested business for $4.7 billion in stock [8] - Merck has announced a $3.9 billion acquisition of SpringWorks Therapeutics to enhance its oncology drug portfolio, with the deal valued at approximately $3.4 billion in enterprise value [9] - Amazon has seen prices of nearly 1,000 products rise by an average of 30% due to the impact of tariffs, affecting various categories from electronics to clothing [10] Earnings Forecast - Upcoming earnings reports include companies such as NXP Semiconductors, AstraZeneca, BP, Novartis, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Coca-Cola, Pfizer, UPS, General Motors, Daqo New Energy, and JinkoSolar [11]

短短两天时间，特朗普又翻脸了？ 当特朗普坐着自己的空军一号前往罗马的时候，他对记者表示："不会降低对中国的关税，除非中国给 美国一些实质性的好处"。 结果外交部发言人连续几天都表示：中美之间并没有进行谈判，外交部完全不知情。甚至中国驻美使馆 也表示：中美双方没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判。 外交部：中美谈判是假消息 面对特朗普："要求中国进行实质性让步"的要求，我们是如何表态的，又该如何应对呢？今天就来谈谈 这些话题，码字不易，欢迎点赞，转发，收藏。 特朗普"两面三刀" 特朗普虽然两面三刀而且谎话连篇，但是他的所有做法都有自己的目的，而唯一不变的就是他的举动都 想"要点好处"。 而美国要的好处是什么呢？简单来说就是"中国市场对美开放"。 很显然，特朗普的这番言论已经打了自己的脸。 因为按照此前特朗普的言论，美国是释放了多重的缓和信号的。不仅美国财政部长贝森特表示，中美之 间的高关税"不可持续"，贝森特和特朗普都表示已经和中国谈判，甚至特朗普还说自己已经接到了来自 中国的电话。 结果是什么呢？结果就是每天都有记者拿着特朗普和贝森特的言论去问外交部。中国和美国是不是不打 贸易战了？美国是不是对中国试好了？中美之间是 ...

宏观周报 4 月政治局会议：高质量自强应对冲击 核心观点 ⚫ 海外方面，美国最新经济数据依旧呈现出"硬数据"尚可、 "软数据"恶化的特征，4月制造业PMI超预期、服务业 景气降温，企业及居民对关税影响的担忧仍在发酵；密歇 根大学消费者信心指数、通胀预期仍在朝着"滞胀"的方 向演绎。特朗普关税谈判近期未见显著进展，中美贸易战 缓和预期发酵，国际金价创3500美元新高后回落，美元指 数站稳99关口，美股、铜、油均不同程度的修复，10Y美 债利率回落至4.23%。关注本周美国一季度GDP、3月ISM PMI、3月PCE数据。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 2025 年 4 月 28 日 投资咨询号：Z0017785 ⚫ 国内方面，3月工业企业利润小幅修复，上游原材料、中 游装备制造转好，企业 "量升价跌"迹象仍有待扭转。4 月政治局会议召开，明确传递出两大信号：① ...

点击蓝字，关注我们 摩根大通发布研究报告，指出 黄金牛市进入结构性新阶段，将黄金2025年Q4日标价上调至3675美元/盎 司,预计2026年Q2突破4000美元，主因是滞胀、贸易战与央行持续加仓推动结构性需求重估。 白银仍存落后补涨空间，全年均价35美元 ： 工业需求疲软令白银短期承压，但预计2025下半年随着基 本金属企稳及黄金领涨，白银有望涨至39美元2026年均价或达43美元。 原文出处 内容来源于：智通财经APP 央行需求仍是最大驱动 : 2025年料达900吨尽管已连续三年净购超千吨，摩根大通认为央行仍未完成"去 美元化"配置。新兴市场央行(如中国、印度、沙特)尤其活跃，推动黄金在官方储备中占比提升至近 20%。 投资者需求强劲 : ETF、期货与中国零售推动上涨万2025年全球黄金ETF净增715吨，其中中国增长尤为 显著(年初至今增幅超50%);同时，投资者对黄金在滞胀、衰退、政策风险下的对冲属性认同增强。 金价上涨门槛明确 : 每季度需净增350吨持仓4.若央行+投资者季度净增黄金持仓超过350吨，金价环比将 稳定上涨;每新增100吨,价格平均提升2%。当前季度均值已达710吨，支撑上调预测 ...

Group 1 - The relationship between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has become increasingly tense, reflecting structural conflicts between the executive branch and an independent central bank [1] - Trump's second term economic strategy differs from his first, focusing on aggressive policies such as significant interest rate cuts to showcase economic performance to voters [2][3] - The U.S. manufacturing sector's contribution to the global economy has drastically decreased from 28% to 10%, impacting employment and inflation stability [3] Group 2 - The U.S. federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2024 is projected at $1.83 trillion, marking the third-largest deficit in history, exacerbated by Trump's tax cuts and infrastructure spending [4] - The national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with interest payments reaching $1.1 trillion, the highest in 26 years, leading to increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [4][9] - Inflation rates are showing signs of improvement, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising only 2.4% year-on-year in March, prompting Trump to call for interest rate cuts [5][6] Group 3 - Powell's cautious approach to interest rate adjustments is influenced by the potential long-term inflation risks associated with Trump's tariff policies, which could lead to a "spiral" of rising prices [6][7] - The Federal Reserve's independence is emphasized, as historical precedents protect its decision-making from direct presidential influence, complicating Trump's attempts to exert control [10][11] - The contrasting economic philosophies between Trump, who prioritizes immediate economic growth, and Powell, who focuses on data-driven inflation control, contribute to their ongoing conflict [10][11]

贵金属： 连续上涨后黄金步入调整。上周美国总统特朗普释放缓和信号，一方面表示尽管他对美联储 未能更快地降低利率感到沮丧，但他无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔。另一方面称对华关税将 " 大幅下降 " 。周末有报道称，首个贸易协议即将达成，并且很可能会是与印度签署。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克上周 四在接受采访时表示，美联储 5 月已基本排除降息可能。但她同时释放关键信息称，若经济走向有了明 确证据， 6 月存在采取政策行动的空间。美国财长贝森特最新演讲阐述中美达成贸易协议的可能框架， 称需 2-3 年。此前，特朗普一再要求美联储降息，并研究能否免去鲍威尔的美联储主席职务，并引发市 场恐慌。而随着贸易战的扰动，引发一系列的连锁反应，金融市场动荡、衰退风险加剧、去美元化、美 国债务等问题愈发凸显，伴随政策和市场的不确定性，黄金价格持续刷新历史新高。考虑美国债务压力 进一步凸显，滞胀形式进一步明确下，黄金整体维持强势，但近期在贸易战没有进一步烈化、特朗普和 美联储态度软化、滞胀预期一定程度消化、多头较为拥挤下，黄金或面临调整压力。 集运指数： 上周五 EC 低开震荡， 06 合约收于 1365.1 点，下跌 2.92% 。盘后公布 ...

【#上周国际金价小幅下跌##美国多家科技巨头将公布财报#】首先来回顾资本市场的情况。上周，随着 特朗普在关税政策上态度缓和，也不再威胁解职美联储主席鲍威尔，市场风险偏好得到提振，美国三大 股指上周集体上涨。其中道指上涨2.48%，纳指上涨6.73%，标普500指数上涨4.59%。 上周国际油价下跌 原油市场方面，"欧佩克+"主要产油国计划在6月再次增产，原油供应可能大幅增加，叠加贸易紧张局势 下的需求不确定性，以及美元走强等多个因素令油价承压。上周，美油累计下跌2.57%，布油累计下跌 1.60%。 （总台央视记者 渠莎莎） 本周将公布美国和欧元区一季度GDP数据 再来看本周，数据面上，美国和欧元区一季度GDP数据将于当地时间本周三公布。多家机构预测，美国 2025年一季度实际GDP增长数据低于0.5%，较上一季度的2.4%大幅萎缩。彭博社的调查显示，经济学 家普遍预计今年前三个季度，美国GDP增速都将低于1%。另外，欧元区本周将迎来一系列GDP、通胀 和消费者信心数据，市场也将以此评估关税政策对欧洲经济造成的冲击。 本周将公布美国4月非农就业数据和3月核心PCE价格指数 当地时间本周五，美国重磅非农就业数据 ...

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Context - The dollar index (DXY) fell sharply by 100 points, breaking below the 98 mark, reaching a new low since March 2022, indicating a structural change in the global monetary system [1] - The U.S. trade deficit expanded to $130.7 billion in Q1 2025, the highest since 1992, exacerbated by the "reciprocal tariff" policy of the Trump administration [3] - Concerns over "stagflation" are rising, with Q1 2025 GDP growth dropping to 1.2% and unemployment rising to 5.1%, while March CPI remained at 3.5% [5] Group 2: U.S. Economic Challenges - The U.S. faces a "fourfold dilemma" with increasing stagflation risks, a national debt exceeding $36.2 trillion, and a debt-to-GDP ratio of 124% [5] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate policies are conflicting, with expectations of multiple rate cuts in 2025, further suppressing dollar demand [6] - Political polarization and a crisis of institutional credibility are evident, with Trump's policies undermining the dollar's status as a reserve currency [7] Group 3: Global De-dollarization Trends - Central banks globally are increasing gold purchases, with a net acquisition of 1,045 tons in 2024, and China's gold reserves rising to 73.7 million ounces [8] - The share of the dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from 59% in 2020 to 52% in 2025, the lowest since the Bretton Woods system [8] - Capital is flowing out of dollar assets, with institutions like Norway's sovereign fund shifting towards euros, yen, and emerging market currencies [8] Group 4: Renminbi Dynamics - The renminbi has faced depreciation pressure, with a year-to-date decline of 3.2%, driven by a negative interest rate differential with the U.S. [9] - China's Q1 2025 GDP grew by 5.4%, with industrial output increasing by 6.5%, indicating economic resilience [10] - The potential for long-term appreciation of the renminbi exists as the Fed's policy shifts and China's competitiveness in digital economy and green energy improves [11] Group 5: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices reached a historic high of $3,395 per ounce on April 21, 2025, driven by geopolitical tensions and inflation expectations [12][14] - The demand for gold is influenced by ongoing geopolitical conflicts and expectations of rising inflation due to tariff policies [14] - The supply of gold is tightening, with global mine production expected to decrease by 2% in 2025, while central bank demand rises to 110 tons per month [16] Group 6: Future Economic Order - The breaking of the dollar index below 98 signals a potential shift in the global economic order, with both risks and opportunities for the renminbi [17] - Investors are advised to focus on macroeconomic fundamentals and adjust asset allocations to mitigate risks associated with the evolving economic landscape [18]

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者宏观团队 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 4 . 1 9 - 4 . 2 6 周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 目录 深度专题 1、坚定不移办好自己的事——4月政治局会议精神学习理解 热点思考 1、 美元："巴别塔"的倒塌？——"汇率"观察双周报系列之一 2、 美国经济：关税冲击与"滞胀"踪迹——关税"压力测试"系列之三 3、 财政"续力"正当时 4、 "关税冲击"的行业脉络？ 高频跟踪 电话会议 1、"周见"系列会议第28期 《服务消费"画像"》 2、"洞见"系列会议第56期 《美元：" 巴别塔 "倒塌？"汇率"观察双周报系列之一》 3、"洞见"系列会议第57期 《美国经济：关税冲击与"滞涨"踪迹——关税"压力测试"系列之三》 深度专题 1 坚定不移办好自己的事——4月政治局会议精神学习理解 深度研究 2025.4.25 《坚定不移办好自己的事——4月政治局会议精神学习理解》 "坚定不移办好自己的事"，"根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策" 1、 海外高频 | 特朗普关税态度软化，3月美国零售反弹 2、 政策跟踪 | ...