Core Viewpoint - The bond market is stabilizing as expectations of "anti-involution" policies diminish, with the 10-year government bond yield around 1.71% [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Since July, the bond market has experienced significant fluctuations, with the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields rising from 1.64% and 1.85% to peaks of 1.75% and 2.00%, respectively, reflecting increases of 11 basis points and 15 basis points [2] - The recent "anti-involution" reform expectations have positively impacted stock and commodity performance, causing disturbances in the bond market [2] - Analysts suggest that the current market adjustment may present an opportunity for entry, with expectations of continued monetary policy easing in the second half of the year [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The PMI and bill market data indicate weak demand, with industrial growth expected to slow to around 6.3% in July due to various factors, including adverse weather conditions and production control measures [3] - The cooling of commodity prices is also seen as beneficial for the bond market, as previously over-inflated prices are undergoing corrections [3] Group 3: Liquidity Factors - August is anticipated to see a decline in funding rates, with historical trends suggesting stability in rates like R001 and R007 [4] - There is optimism among industry insiders that institutional funds will likely flow back into the bond market in August, following a period of redemption in July [4] - The yields on long-term bonds have risen to around 2.0%, indicating potential for further downward movement in yields driven by insurance capital allocation [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Institutions are advised to maintain focus on the bond market, emphasizing the importance of securing certain yield values amid a narrow trading range [6] - Strategies include timing trades based on seasonal factors and key events, with a focus on the period from August to October for potential market disturbances [6] - The 10-year government bond is highlighted as a high-value trading option, with potential for significant returns despite limited room for rate cuts [7]

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Discussion: Outlook for Stock Index Quotes [1] - Report Date: August 3, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Liu Yihan from Chuangyuan Research [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - A-share market is bullish in the medium to long term, and the stock index will fluctuate around 3600 points in the short term, expected to build a platform at this level, and then choose to attack the high point of 3674 points in November last year after a period of shock digestion. The lower limit of the market adjustment is expected to be around 3500 points, and if the adjustment is shallow, it may be around the gap of 3536 points on July 18 [25]. - The strategy is to continue to focus on a balanced allocation of blue - chips and technology growth stocks, with a balanced allocation of SSE 50 and CSI 1000. Technology remains the main line for medium - to long - term allocation [25]. Summary by Directory Market Review - Most global markets experienced significant pullbacks this week, including the A - share market [9]. - In the past 5 trading days, all major A - share indices declined, with the decline of the Hang Seng Index being - 3.47%, and the declines of other indices such as the Wind All - A, SSE Composite Index, and Shenzhen Component Index ranging from - 0.74% to - 1.75% [5]. - Among the Shenwan primary industries in the past 5 trading days, the pharmaceutical and biological industry had a decline of - 0.54%, while the communication and media industries had a rise of 3% [7]. Sino - US Trade Negotiations - The Sino - US tariff negotiation period was extended by 90 days. China did not promise to invest in the US or purchase commodities, and the two sides stood on an equal footing [10][11]. - After the negotiation in Stockholm on July 29, the two sides will continue to promote the extension of the suspended 24% reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures. The US aims to confirm the implementation of the agreement reached in London and accelerate the supply of rare - earth magnets from China to US companies [13]. - The US uses its consumer market as a bargaining chip in tariff negotiations. The global market faces a problem of insufficient total demand, and the proportion of US residents' salary income has decreased while the importance of financial assets has increased. If the US capital market has problems, it will affect US consumption and thus tariff negotiations [14]. Fed Interest - Rate Meeting - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25 - 4.50% on July 30, but Fed Chairman Powell made a hawkish statement. There is still a high probability of a rate cut in September [16][20]. - The reasons for a possible rate cut are: the US demand - side data has shown a slowdown in economic data, and the financial market will force the Fed to cut rates, such as the need for liquidity supplementation due to the decline of the TGA account and the increase in overnight financing rates caused by the significant decrease in the balance of the overnight reverse - repurchase market [20]. Politburo Meeting - The Politburo meeting in July indicates that subsequent pro - growth policies will continue to be promoted and implemented [26]. - The statement in the Politburo meeting about "enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market and consolidating the stable and improving momentum of the capital market" is conducive to the recovery of A - share risk appetite [26]. A - Share Market Analysis - The A - share market is affected by multiple factors. During the mid - year report disclosure period, the economy has structural problems, and the recovery is stable but without significant improvement. The external environment is uncertain, and domestic monetary policy is in a wait - and - see state [26]. - The molecular end is neutral, and the denominator end is slightly bullish. The strategy is to balance the allocation of blue - chips and technology growth stocks [24][25].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **bond market** and **government debt** supply dynamics in China, along with implications for the **equity market** and **credit bonds**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Government Debt Supply**: The net financing scale of government bonds in Q3 is expected to reach **4.08 trillion yuan**, which may exert pressure on the bond market due to seasonal supply increases [1][4]. 2. **10-Year Treasury Yield**: The 10-year treasury yield is anticipated to be at **1.6%** as a bottom, with a breakthrough in the second half of the year being difficult. The upper limit is projected between **1.8% and 1.9%** [1][6]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: The bond market is influenced by various factors including redemption risks, tariff negotiations, geopolitical tensions, and stock market volatility, which add uncertainty to demand [1][5][6]. 4. **Stock Market Influence**: Short-term stock market fluctuations have limited impact on the bond market, but the long-term attractiveness of equities is increasing. A shift in focus from bearish to long-term opportunities in the stock market is recommended [1][7][8]. 5. **Investment Strategy**: A strategy of flexible trading and wave operations is advised for Q3 due to expected volatility. The focus should be on equities rather than relying solely on the bond market, which may see reduced returns and increased volatility [1][9]. 6. **Tax Policy Impact**: The new VAT regulations are expected to have a short-term impact on the bond market, favoring older bonds and benefiting ordinary credit bonds and deposits [1][11]. 7. **Credit Bond Market**: The credit bond market is expected to have more opportunities than risks in August, with a focus on the performance of the stock market as a key variable [1][28]. 8. **Market Disturbances**: Key disturbances in the market include policy changes, stock market volatility, and significant events such as military parades and political meetings, which may affect market sentiment [1][29]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **PPI Forecast**: A slight upward adjustment in PPI to around **-3.2%** is predicted for July, with potential recovery in August and September depending on demand-side support [1][18]. 2. **Investment Opportunities**: Notable investment opportunities include sectors like **robotics**, **AI**, **military**, and **pharmaceuticals**, which are expected to show structural growth [1][14]. 3. **Long-term Economic Outlook**: The economic outlook for Q3 remains resilient, but Q4 will require close monitoring of income and internal demand dynamics [1][22]. 4. **Credit ETF Performance**: Recent performance of credit ETFs showed a rebound after a period of adjustment, indicating potential recovery in investor sentiment [1][30]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the bond market's current state, future expectations, and strategic recommendations for investors.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the bond market may reach its peak moment, becoming a decisive factor in the performance competition in the second half of the year. The opportunities in the first and middle ten - days of August may be greater, while the situation in the last ten - days needs further observation. With five major positive factors supporting, there is a 10 - 12bp downward space for the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds, and the potential returns are considerable when considering the duration [2][5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. July Bond Market: "Unjust Disaster" - The bond market in July went against market expectations. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds started at 1.64% and 1.85% respectively and rose to 1.75% and 2.00% by the end of the month, with an increase of 11bp and 15bp. The main reasons for the divergence between expectations and reality were the over - fermented risk appetite in the stock and commodity markets and the unexpected tightening of the capital market around the tax period [1][10]. - The bond market in July can be divided into three stages: a calm first ten - days, a turbulent middle ten - days, and a late ten - days when negative factors were released. In the late ten - days, affected by factors such as the start of a large - scale infrastructure project and the "anti - involution" trading, the bond market entered an irrational decline [11][12]. - In terms of various bond types, short - term bonds performed better than long - term bonds, and credit bonds outperformed interest - rate bonds. The yields of various bonds generally increased, and the 30 - year treasury bond had a single - month decline of 2.30%, making July the second - worst month for the bond market this year [15][16][18]. 2. Five Reasons to Be Bullish on the Bond Market in August 2.1. Do Not Underestimate the Change in the US Attitude on Tariff Issues - The result of the Sino - US tariff negotiation may become the main variable for asset pricing again. The US may use tariffs to seek benefits in investment or exports, which could damage global trade relations and create a negative atmosphere for Sino - US negotiations [2][21]. - In the new round of tariff negotiations, the US generally obtained favorable trade terms. This may make the US more aggressive in future Sino - US negotiations. If Sino - US relations deteriorate, it could suppress global and domestic risk preferences, which is beneficial to the bond market [22][24]. 2.2. The Fundamental Situation Weakens Marginally, but the Expectation of Policy Stimulus Retreats - The July PMI data showed that the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, lower than the expected 49.7%. The new orders and production in the manufacturing industry declined, indicating weak demand. The large - scale net purchase of bills by major banks in July and the decline of bill interest rates to near zero may also suggest weak loan demand [25][26]. - The Politburo meeting at the end of July gave an optimistic assessment of the first - half economy, which may make it difficult to introduce short - term "stable growth" policies. If the economic data in the third quarter fluctuates, there may be a time lag before stimulus policies are introduced, which could lead to a decline in risk preferences and be beneficial to the bond market [29]. 2.3. The Suppression of Risk Appetite Caused by "Anti - Involution" Trading Weakens - From July 1st to 25th, affected by "anti - involution" trading, the futures prices of key commodities such as coking coal, coke, and polysilicon increased significantly, and the extreme risk preferences in the market were rapidly boosted, which was the main reason for the sharp adjustment of the bond market [30]. - To suppress speculation, commodity exchanges issued relevant policies at the end of July. The first stage of the general rise in the commodity market may have passed, and the over - risen commodities have entered the price correction stage. The market risk preference has returned to rationality, reducing the resistance to the rise of the bond market [31][32]. 2.4. In Terms of Liquidity, August May Be the Low Point of the Annual Capital Interest Rate - Generally, the capital interest rate in August does not increase significantly compared with July. The natural capital gap in August is not large. Although the net issuance of government bonds may increase, it is offset by the lower tax payment. The MLF maturity scale in August is 3000 billion yuan, and the maturity pressure of repurchase agreements has eased, which is conducive to maintaining a neutral and loose capital interest rate [34][35]. - Historically, the R001 and R007 in August can generally remain stable, and the increase in the capital interest rate usually occurs before the end of the month. After August, the capital interest rate may fluctuate due to factors such as the quarter - end pressure in September and uncertainties in the fourth quarter. Therefore, August may be the low point of the annual capital interest rate [36][37]. 2.5. Pay Attention to the Return of Redeemed Funds and the New Premiums of Insurance "Cost - Reduction" - In July, the continuous redemption of public bond funds by institutions amplified the adjustment of the bond market. However, the redemption pressure may only be within the "institution - fund" circle and has not spread outward. The liability of wealth management products and banks remained stable. For example, wealth management products continued to increase their holdings of certificates of deposit in July [46][49][50]. - If the redeemed funds of funds remain in the inter - bank market, they may flow back to the trading market as the bond market recovers in August, which could push the interest rate down. In addition, due to the adjustment of the insurance product interest rate, the yields of ultra - long - term local bonds and ultra - long - term treasury bonds have risen to around or above the "new cost line" of life insurance, and the ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds may experience an excessive decline in August [50][55][57]. 3. The Bond Market in August May Reach Its Peak Moment: Grasping the Rhythm Is Key - With five major positive factors, the bond market in August may reach its peak moment. The opportunities in the first and middle ten - days of August are greater, while the situation in the late ten - days needs further observation. From the end of July to the beginning of August, although the bond market entered the recovery stage, institutions were still cautious about the duration [5][59]. - It is recommended to extend the duration as much as possible with active individual bonds within the acceptable risk range. The bond interest tax - payment new rule announced by the Ministry of Finance on August 1st may affect the pricing of treasury bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds in three stages, but it is not a negative factor for the bond market [59][63].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a rebound after a period of adjustment, with overall trading volume continuing to shrink, indicating cautious sentiment among investors [1][9] - Despite signs of short-term adjustments, the overall downward space for the index is limited, suggesting a phase of consolidation rather than a significant decline [1][9] - The market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" pattern in the medium term, driven by ongoing policy support and improved liquidity conditions [1][9] Sector Analysis Military Industry - The military sector has shown significant growth, with a 25.27% increase in the second half of 2020 and a 16.30% increase in the first half of 2023, outperforming the broader market [6] - Continued government support for military modernization and geopolitical tensions are expected to drive further investment in this sector [6] - The forecast for the second half of 2025 suggests that investors should look for opportunities in aviation, defense information technology, and military materials, while being cautious of high valuations [6] Precious Metals - The precious metals sector has seen a notable price increase due to factors such as the onset of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and strong demand from central banks [7][8] - The outlook for gold prices remains positive, driven by expectations of rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and increased investment demand, although caution is advised against chasing prices after significant gains [8] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to maintain rationality and strategic discipline, focusing on high-quality sectors and selecting stocks with solid fundamentals and reasonable valuations [2][10] - It is recommended to avoid stocks that have risen significantly but show questionable performance or negative expectations, optimizing portfolio structure during adjustments [2][10] - Aggressive investors may consider technology growth stocks that have corrected, while conservative investors should wait for market stabilization [2][10]

瑞士联邦委员会表示，通过与瑞士工商界的沟通，联邦委员会已为与美国谈判制定了新策略。瑞士准备 提出更具吸引力的方案，同时考虑美国关切并寻求缓解当前关税状况。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 人民财讯8月4日电，瑞士联邦委员会当地时间8月4日表示，在美国宣布对瑞士进口商品征收39%的高关 税后，瑞士决定继续进行谈判，必要时将在8月7日新税率生效后继续谈判。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. has announced a 39% tariff on goods imported from Switzerland, significantly higher than the tariffs imposed by the EU (15%) and the UK (10%) [2][3] - Swiss watch companies experienced a 9% drop in stock prices following the announcement of the new tariff [2] - An initial agreement set the tariff rate at 10%, but U.S. President Trump accused Switzerland of "stealing" from the U.S. during a phone call, leading to the unexpected increase [2][5] Group 2 - Swiss officials expressed feelings of betrayal, stating they felt "stabbed in the back" after the U.S. raised the tariff unexpectedly [5][7] - The Swiss government had previously reached an understanding with the U.S. that was believed to be a mere procedural formality [5] - The trade deficit of nearly $40 billion between the U.S. and Switzerland was a major concern for Trump, who demanded solutions to reduce it [7][9] Group 3 - The Swiss National Bank argues that gold, a significant export, should not be included in the trade deficit calculations as it is a special reserve asset [7] - Swiss companies, including major pharmaceutical firms, have created approximately 500,000 jobs in the U.S., highlighting the economic ties between the two countries [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian government, led by President Lula, firmly opposes the U.S. decision to impose tariffs on Brazilian exports, asserting that Brazil will not yield to U.S. pressure and will defend its sovereignty [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Imposition - The U.S. has announced a 40% tariff on Brazilian exports effective from August 6, with most products facing an increased tariff rate of 50% [5]. - U.S. Trade Representative Greer stated that the new round of tariffs, including the 50% tariff on Brazil, is largely finalized and will not be adjusted during current negotiations [3]. Group 2: Brazilian Response - President Lula emphasized that Brazil is not a minor player and will not accept U.S. tariffs as a form of political coercion, indicating a commitment to equal dialogue [1][3]. - Brazil plans to negotiate with the U.S. regarding the tariffs and will implement reciprocal measures if negotiations fail [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Silver: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] 2. Core Views - Overnight, the annual rate of the US core PCE in June rebounded to 2.8%, slightly higher than expected, and the monthly rate of 0.3% met expectations. The weekly initial jobless claims remained at a low level of 218,000. With recent geopolitical risks stable, tariff negotiations becoming clearer, and the risk of economic recession decreasing, the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment suppresses the performance of precious metals, and the volatile adjustment may continue. Fed Chair Powell reiterated that rate cuts will depend on data, and attention is focused on the US non - farm payrolls guidance tonight [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Tariff News - US President Trump signed an executive order on Thursday night to impose tariffs ranging from 15% to 41% on goods exported to the US from 67 trading partners, raising the tariff level to the highest in more than a century. The new tariffs will take effect on August 7 instead of August 1, providing a window for countries to negotiate for lower tariffs. The White House hopes to reach more agreements with countries before August 7 [2] - The US Treasury Secretary is frustrated with India. The tariff rate for Malaysian goods will be announced soon. India hopes to sign free - trade agreements with several countries. The US - Mexico tariff agreement will be extended by 90 days, and Mexico will continue to pay 25% fentanyl tariffs, 25% auto tariffs, and 50% steel, aluminum, and copper tariffs. Trump excluded 45% of Brazil's exports to the US from the 50% tariff [2] Gold Demand Report - In the second quarter of 2025, the total global gold demand (including over - the - counter transactions) reached 1,249 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. In value terms, the total global gold demand soared by 45% year - on - year to a new record of $132 billion. Gold ETF investment was the key driver, with an inflow of 170 tons in Q2, compared with a small outflow in Q2 2024. The total global gold ETF demand in the first half of the year reached 397 tons, the highest since 2020 [2] - The total investment in gold bars and coins in Q2 also increased by 11% year - on - year to 307 tons. Chinese investors led the world, with a 44% year - on - year surge in demand for gold bars and coins to 115 tons. Indian investors continued to increase their holdings, with a demand of 46 tons in Q2. The Western market showed a differentiated trend: the net investment demand in Europe more than doubled to 28 tons in Q2, while the demand for gold bars and coins in the US halved to 9 tons [2] - Global central banks continued to buy gold, but the pace slowed down. They added 166 tons in Q2 2025. Despite the slowdown in the purchase growth rate, global central bank gold purchases remained at a significantly high level. 95% of surveyed central banks expect global central bank gold reserves to further increase in the next 12 months [2] - Gold jewelry demand continued to shrink, with consumption volume decreasing by 14% year - on - year in Q2, approaching the low level during the 2020 pandemic. The demand for gold jewelry in China and India decreased by 20% and 17% year - on - year respectively. However, in value terms, global gold jewelry consumption still rose to $3.6 billion in Q2 [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. White House announced on July 31 that Taiwan's "equivalent" tax rate will be adjusted to 20%, leading to ongoing controversy within Taiwan [1] - Taiwan's Vice Premier Zheng Lijun stated that negotiations will continue to seek better tax rates, following the U.S. government's notification of the tax rate reduction from 32% to 20% [1] - The Taiwanese government claims the new tax rate is a "temporary adjustment" and has achieved "stage results," but there are concerns about potential upward adjustments if negotiations do not meet U.S. expectations [1] Group 2 - The Taiwanese media reports that compared to other major trade deficit countries, Taiwan's tax rate remains high, raising concerns about the potential for increased tariffs if negotiations fail [1] - There are indications that Taiwan may consider increasing purchases of U.S. beef and grains in exchange for lower tariffs, highlighting the transactional nature of the negotiations [1] - Public sentiment is critical, with netizens questioning the effectiveness of the government's negotiation strategy and expressing concerns about the implications of the new tax rate on Taiwan's economy [2]