Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the A-share market is expected to exhibit a "slow bull" pattern characterized by structural opportunities, driven by favorable tariff negotiations, continuous policy support, and an overall improvement in liquidity conditions [2][8][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of avoiding high-flying stocks and suggests focusing on low-performing sectors that are likely to rotate, which is a key trend in the current market dynamics [2][9] Market Overview - The A-share market is currently experiencing fluctuations around the 3600-point mark, with no significant signs of weakness despite some index divergence [2][9] - The report notes that the market is likely entering a period of consolidation, with indices expected to oscillate around 3600 points to digest previous pressures [4][8] - Key characteristics of the market include a "weak Shanghai, strong Shenzhen" trend, with the ChiNext index performing particularly well, reaching new highs for the year [8][10] Sector Analysis Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly innovative drugs, is highlighted as a growth area, with recent policy changes from the National Medical Insurance Administration expected to support this segment [6][7] - The report suggests that the pharmaceutical sector has significant investment value due to its previous downturn, low price-to-earnings ratios, and the increasing demand driven by an aging population [6] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector is noted for its strong performance, with government policies supporting the industry and a projected global market growth of over 15% by 2025 [7] - The report encourages investment in the semiconductor sector, particularly in companies that are leading in technology and can adapt quickly to industry changes [7] Trading Strategy - The report advises investors to maintain a rational approach, avoiding blind speculation and focusing on sector rotation, especially in low-performing areas [2][9] - It suggests that investors should consider reducing positions in stocks that have seen significant gains and look for opportunities in sectors that have lagged behind [2][9]

Group 1 - The core issue is the ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China, with a focus on tariffs and economic strategies [2][4] - The EU has agreed to a 15% tariff and committed to investing $600 billion in the US, along with purchasing $750 billion in energy over the next three years [2][3] - Japan has also agreed to a 15% tariff and will invest $550 billion in the US, while reducing tariffs on agricultural products [3][4] Group 2 - China is expected to take a firmer stance in negotiations, learning from past experiences where concessions led to further demands from the US [4] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is crucial for determining China's economic policy direction for the second half of the year [5][6] - The focus will shift from export-driven growth to domestic demand, with an emphasis on stimulating consumption and economic recovery [7][8] Group 3 - The policy framework will prioritize inflation control, as rising prices are seen as essential for economic recovery and consumer spending [8] - Investment will be directed towards urban infrastructure and public services, indicating a shift in focus from large-scale infrastructure projects to urban quality improvement [8][9] - A new wealth model is anticipated, where housing policies will resemble those in Singapore and Hong Kong, with a significant portion of the population living in government-subsidized housing [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Japan and the United States have reached an agreement on tariffs after extensive negotiations, but the lack of a legally binding document and Japan's political instability pose challenges for the implementation of the agreement [1][3][6] - The agreement includes a reduction of mutual tariffs and tariffs on automobiles and auto parts to 15% by the U.S., while Japan will increase imports of U.S. agricultural products by $8 billion and commit to significant investments in U.S. industries [2][4] - Japan's commitment to invest $550 billion is controversial, as the U.S. expects 90% of the returns to go to them, while Japan argues that this figure refers to financing and guarantees rather than direct government spending [5][6] Group 2 - The absence of a formal agreement document has led to differing interpretations of the terms, raising concerns about future compliance and potential disputes [3][6] - The political landscape in Japan, with the ruling coalition losing power, complicates the situation, as the government may struggle to implement the agreement effectively [1][7] - The U.S. has threatened to impose additional tariffs if Japan does not meet the terms of the agreement, further increasing uncertainty around the deal [6][7]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Decision Insights - The market anticipates a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates during the July meeting[3] - Since the beginning of 2025, the Federal Reserve has kept rates unchanged due to mixed economic data and tariff concerns[3] - President Trump has increased pressure on the Federal Reserve for rate cuts, indicating a strong desire for lower rates[3] Group 2: Future Rate Cut Conditions - The upcoming meeting may clarify conditions for potential rate cuts, with Powell likely to outline specific criteria[3] - Three scenarios are considered for Powell's communication: maintaining ambiguity, indicating a possible September cut, or outlining conditions for future cuts[3] - The likelihood of maintaining a vague stance is deemed low due to increasing pressure from Trump and potential market volatility[3] Group 3: Market Volatility and Risks - The FOMC meeting precedes significant earnings reports from major tech companies and ongoing US-China trade talks, which may heighten market volatility[3] - Risks include unexpected inflation rebounds, weaker global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions that could lead to increased market fluctuations[6]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the public fund quantitative selection strategy index continues to reach new highs, with equity fund enhancement strategies maintaining high elasticity [1][3] - The A-share equity market has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through key resistance levels, supported by multiple favorable factors that enhance market sentiment [3][4] - The report highlights that various strategy indices have recorded positive returns, with the Evergreen Low Volatility Strategy and Equity Fund Enhancement Strategy yielding returns of 1.990% and 2.284% respectively, indicating the latter's stronger elasticity [3][5] Quantitative Strategy Allocation Views - The preferred strategy ranking is Equity Fund Enhancement Strategy > Evergreen Low Volatility Strategy > Overseas Equity Strategy [4] - The report notes that the A-share market is experiencing a positive upward trend, with the technology growth sector gaining more attention and funds shifting towards related low-position sectors [4][5] - The Evergreen Low Volatility Strategy has shown strong stability since its inception, effectively reducing portfolio volatility while maintaining decent returns [5][15] Performance Tracking of Fund Strategies - The Evergreen Low Volatility Fund Strategy has achieved a return of 1.990% this week, 4.909% over the past month, and 6.627% year-to-date, with a total return of 14.953% since its inception [13] - The Equity Fund Enhancement Strategy has recorded a return of 2.284% this week, 7.292% over the past month, and 11.397% year-to-date, with a total return of 19.794% since its inception [13] - The Cash Growth Fund Strategy has achieved a return of 0.028% this week, outperforming the benchmark, with cumulative excess returns exceeding 0.41% since its inception [18] Fund Strategy Construction Ideas - The report emphasizes the need for a quantitative approach to construct a fund selection pool that meets the diverse needs of investors in different market environments and risk preferences [22][29] - The Evergreen Low Volatility Fund Strategy aims to select funds with long-term stable return characteristics, focusing on funds with low volatility and drawdown levels [26] - The Equity Fund Enhancement Strategy seeks to identify funds with strong alpha generation capabilities, aiming for higher returns in improving market conditions [27]

泰国代理总理：我们将与美国进行关税谈判。 ...

泰国代理总理：关税谈判将从一个良好的起点开始。 ...

Market Performance - Global stock markets showed mixed results last week, with major US indices rising collectively, while the German DAX index experienced a slight pullback[3] - The UK FTSE 100 and French CAC40 indices increased, while the Taiwan Weighted Index and India's SENSEX30 saw declines[3] Economic Negotiations - Key economic negotiations between China, the US, and Europe are set to progress next week, with significant meetings scheduled between leaders[3] - Trump indicated a 50% chance of a US-EU agreement, while the US expressed optimism regarding US-China talks[3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting is low, but pressure is mounting on the Fed from Trump, who highlighted a $3.1 billion budget overrun on Fed renovations[3] - The FOMC's outlook on future rate cuts is expected to change significantly, influenced by recent economic data and ongoing trade negotiations[3] Investment Strategy - Increased market volatility is anticipated, with a focus on sectors showing high growth potential, such as nuclear power and AI[3] - The upcoming FOMC meeting and corporate earnings reports are likely to contribute to market fluctuations, particularly in the tech and consumer sectors[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected inflation rebounds in overseas markets, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and escalated geopolitical tensions[3]

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian Foreign Minister is likely to extend negotiations regarding tariffs with the United States, indicating ongoing discussions about trade relations between the two countries [1] Group 1 - The Brazilian government is actively engaging in talks with the U.S. to address tariff issues, which may impact bilateral trade dynamics [1] - The extension of negotiations suggests that both countries are seeking to find common ground on trade policies [1] - This development may have implications for various industries reliant on trade between Brazil and the U.S., potentially affecting market strategies [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - US copper market has low inventory, and the domestic copper market is expected to have a situation of weak supply and strong demand, with inventory depletion likely to continue. The short - term price of Shanghai copper lacks a clear driver and maintains low volatility [3]. - The aluminum market sentiment has slightly declined, and it is recommended to wait and see. For different aluminum - related products, corresponding support and pressure intervals are given, and options can be used for protection [5]. - The fundamentals of tin are in a situation of both weak supply and demand, with the market oscillating weakly. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach [5]. - The zinc market has an increase in supply and weak demand, with import processing fees rising. The price is expected to be short - term bearish with a certain support level [6]. - The lead market has a recovery in demand, and attention should be paid to the driving force of the peak season and the macro - orientation. It can be considered to go long at low prices [6]. - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are affected by multiple factors such as the dollar and trade agreements. They are in an oscillating state, and short - term short - selling strategies can be considered [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro - logic**: The non - ferrous metal sector rebounded to different degrees this week. Domestic policies are favorable, but the spill - over effect on non - ferrous metals is limited in terms of persistence and intensity. Overseas, tariff negotiations are still ongoing, and the market is cautious. The future trend of non - ferrous metals depends on the resonance of supply - demand fundamentals and the macro - environment [10][12]. - **Single - side strategies for each variety**: - **Copper**: It is recommended to go long at low prices, as the non - US market inventory is low and the domestic copper market is expected to have a supply - demand imbalance with weak supply and strong demand [13]. - **Zinc**: Adopt a strategy of short - term long and medium - term short, as the supply is increasing and the demand is weak [13]. - **Aluminum industry chain**: It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell in the short term, as the supply and demand situation is not optimistic [14]. - **Tin**: Adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy, as the market is in an interval oscillation [14]. - **Lead**: Consider buying a bull spread at low prices or using a wide - interval double - selling strategy, as the market is in an interval arrangement [14]. - **Nickel**: Sell out - of - the - money call options at high prices, as the market is in an interval fluctuation [15]. - **Stainless steel**: Adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy, as the market is in an oscillating state [15]. - **Arbitrage strategies**: - **Copper 2508 - 2509 contract positive spread**: After the tariff expectation is fulfilled, the short - term negative impact on Shanghai copper is basically over, and the domestic copper market fundamentals are turning to weak supply and strong demand [16]. - **Alumina 2502 - 2509 contract reverse spread**: The near - strong and far - weak structure of alumina has returned [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The report provides the closing prices and weekly price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures, including copper, aluminum, tin, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy [16]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The report shows the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, such as copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [21]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Tracking of Key Data in the Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - For each non - ferrous metal variety (copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel), relevant data tracking charts are provided, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, and production capacity utilization rates [22][24][33][35][41][49][57][67]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - For each non - ferrous metal variety (copper, zinc, aluminum and alumina, tin, lead, nickel and stainless steel), relevant arbitrage data charts are provided, such as the ratio of Shanghai and London prices, basis spreads, and spreads between different contracts [72][74][75][78][81][86][87]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - For each non - ferrous metal variety (copper, zinc, aluminum), relevant option data charts are provided, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, and open interest [91][93][94].