投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月4日 朱迪 Z0015979 | 油脂产业期现日报 | | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 土泽辉 Z0019938 2025年12月4日 | | 原田 | | 现价 江苏一级 8620 8620 0 0.00% | | 期价 Y2601 8286 8288 -2 -0.02% | | 墓差 Y2601 334 332 2 0.60% | | 江苏1月 01+260 01+270 现货基差报价 -10 | | 8619 | | 棕榈油 | | 12月3日 12月2日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 8720 8620 现价 广东24度 100 1.16% | | 8720 0.11% 期价 P2601 8730 10 | | 基差 P2601 -10 -100 90 90.00% | | 现货基差报价 广东1月 01+50 01+0 50 ត | | 盘面进口成本 广州港1月 9195.1 9091.7 103.4 1.14% | | 盘面进口利润 -372 -93 -25.14% 广州港1月 -465 | | 仓单 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The global soybean supply in the 2025/26 season has decreased compared to the 2024/25 season, and the bottom of the import cost may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively high, and the soybean meal is expected to fluctuate. The palm oil market may reverse the current supply - surplus situation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. The sugar market is expected to be weak due to increased global production. The cotton market is unlikely to have a unilateral trend. The egg market has a short - term long and medium - term short outlook. The pig market suggests a short - selling approach for near - term contracts or reverse spreads [2][3][5][10][13][18][21][24] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Soybean Meal 行情资讯 - On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans declined, the Brazilian soybean premium decreased slightly, and the cost of imported soybeans also dropped slightly. The domestic soybean meal spot price was stable, with the East China price at 3,010 yuan/ton, and the trading and delivery were good. MYSTEEL estimated that the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills this week would be 2.1353 million tons, compared with 2.2038 million tons last week. The inventory days of feed enterprises last week were 8.17 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 days. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories increased last week mainly due to high crushing volume, while the apparent consumption remained flat [2] - The 2025/26 soybean planting area in Brazil has reached 89% of the expected area as of last Thursday. The USDA predicts that the global soybean supply - demand pattern has changed from an increase in both supply and demand to a decrease in supply and an increase in demand, but the annual inventory - to - sales ratio is still relatively high, so it is difficult to generate a high - profit situation in the CBOT soybean market. Without significant problems in South American weather, the cost of imported soybeans will mainly fluctuate [3] 策略观点 - The global soybean new - crop production has been marginally reduced, and the total production is now equal to the total demand. The global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 2024/25 season, indicating that the bottom of the import cost may have appeared, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Currently, the domestic soybean inventory is at a record high, the soybean meal inventory is large, and the crushing profit is under pressure. However, as it gradually enters the destocking season, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [5] Palm Oil 行情资讯 - ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared with the same period last month, 10% - 15.5% in the first 15 days, 14.1% - 20.5% in the first 20 days, 16.4% - 18.8% in the first 25 days, and 19.9% for the whole month of November. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 6.8% in the first 5 days of November, decreased by 2.16% in the first 10 days, was expected to increase by 4.09% in the first 15 days, increased by 5.49% in the first 25 days, and decreased by 0.19% in the first 30 days [7] - On Wednesday, domestic palm oil futures fluctuated. Foreign investors reduced their short positions in palm oil and increased their long positions in soybean oil and rapeseed oil. The market still has high expectations for palm oil destocking during the production - reduction season. The domestic spot basis was stable [8][9] 策略观点 - The over - expected production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed the market performance, and the high - frequency export data has declined. The current situation of supply surplus and inventory accumulation in palm oil may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production cannot be sustained, the destocking time may come earlier. If Indonesia maintains its high - yield record, palm oil will continue to be weak. It is recommended to try a long - on - dips strategy [10] Sugar 行情资讯 - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price decreased slightly. The closing price of the January contract was 5,366 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton or 0.3% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the new - sugar price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,460 - 5,530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; the new - sugar price of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5,440 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of processing sugar mills was 5,750 - 5,830 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0 - 20 yuan/ton. The basis between the Guangxi spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar main - contract price was 94 yuan/ton [12] - As of November 30, 2025, India had crushed 48.6 million tons of sugarcane, an increase of 15.2 million tons year - on - year; the sugar production was 4.135 million tons, an increase of 1.375 million tons year - on - year; the average sugar yield was 8.51%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points year - on - year. In the first half of November, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 18.761 million tons, an increase of 14.3% year - on - year, and the sugar production was 0.983 million tons, an increase of 8.7% year - on - year [12] 策略观点 - It is estimated that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new crushing season, and the global supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. Until the first quarter of next year, the international sugar price may not have much room for improvement. Coupled with the continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, the overall view is bearish. However, the domestic sugar price is already at a relatively low level, and the difficulty of long - short game has increased, and the probability of a trending market has decreased. It is recommended to short on rallies and close positions when the price drops [13] Cotton 行情资讯 - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the January contract was 13,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,005 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis between the CCIndex 3128B and the Zhengzhou cotton main - contract price was 1,225 yuan/ton [15] - As of the week of November 28, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, unchanged from the previous week, 1.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 6.6 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years. The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.18 million tons, an increase of 270,000 tons year - on - year. In October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 20,000 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36% year - on - year. The USDA's latest monthly supply - demand report showed that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season was revised up by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared with the September forecast. Among them, the production in the United States was revised up by 190,000 tons to 3.07 million tons, Brazil's production was revised up by 110,000 tons to 4.08 million tons, India's production remained at 5.23 million tons, and China's production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.29 million tons [16] 策略观点 - Fundamentally, the peak season was not prosperous before, but the demand was not too bad after the peak season. The downstream operating rate remained at a medium level, and the previous decline in the futures price had digested the negative impact of the domestic bumper harvest. With the rebound of commodities, there was short - term capital inflow to push up the cotton price, but there was no strong driving force. Coupled with the pressure of hedging positions, the probability of a unilateral trend in the Zhengzhou cotton market was not high [18] Eggs 行情资讯 - Yesterday, the national egg price was stable in some areas and declined in others. The average price in the main production areas decreased by 0.01 yuan to 3.05 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao decreased by 0.03 yuan to 2.64 yuan/jin. The supply was stable, the downstream sales were slow, most traders were not confident about the future market, the inventory at all levels increased slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was normal. It is expected that today's egg price will be mostly stable and slightly decline in some areas [20] 策略观点 - Continuous losses have led to a strong sentiment of culling laying hens. The far - month contracts are relatively strong, while the near - month contracts fluctuate between reflecting the spot seasonal inventory accumulation and production capacity reduction. In the short term, it reflects the resonance between spot seasonal inventory accumulation and production capacity reduction. The strength of the near - and far - month contracts under the premium situation cannot be falsified for the time being. In the medium term, as the far - month contracts offer reasonable breeding profits, the production capacity reduction will slow down, and after the seasonal replenishment ends, attention should be paid to the upper pressure. A short - term long and medium - term short strategy is recommended [21] Pigs 行情资讯 - Yesterday, the domestic pig price generally declined. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.1 yuan to 11.25 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.1 yuan to 11.34 yuan/kg. The southern pig farms had a large number of pigs for sale, and the market sales were poor. Today, the pig price is expected to mainly decline. After the decline in the northern pig price, the pig farms showed some resistance to price cuts, so there may be some stability and slight increase in the pig price [23] 策略观点 - The theoretical number of pigs for sale is still large, the completion rate of the large - scale pig farms' sales plan is average. Under the background of high slaughter volume, the average weight of pigs is still higher than the same period last year and continues to increase month - on - month. The price difference between fat and standard pigs has stagnated at a high level, and the second - fattening pens of small - scale farmers are slowly releasing. The supply pressure remains, and there will still be an increase in the future. On the demand side, due to high temperatures, the demand has been lukewarm, with only sporadic bacon - making activities in some areas, which has limited impact on the spot market. Considering that the futures price is not low and the spot price has a downward impact on it, a strategy of short - selling near - month contracts or reverse spreads is recommended [24]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 4 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 核心逻辑：近期豆类市场呈现近弱远强的分化走势，资金继续向远期 2605 合约移仓。美豆期价受中 国采购预期支撑高位运行，但巴西大豆创纪录的丰产预期及美豆较巴西大豆的升水限制了上行空间。 国内豆粕高库存与油厂高压榨量对价格形成压制，而下游生猪养殖存栏高位支撑饲料需求，使得市场 在"弱现实"与"强预期"间反复博弈。短期豆粕 2605 合约仍将维持区间内震荡偏弱运行，需关注 南美天气变化及中国采购美豆的实际进展。 时间周期说 ...

| 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 玉米现货报价偏强运行，周末东北玉米价格偏强运行为主，东北深加工玉米收购 价格上涨对行情仍有一定的支撑，基层农户惜售情绪较为明显。 周末山东玉米 供应市场，短期市场情绪看涨预期较强，预计随着本地粮源供应量逐渐增加，华 | 震荡上涨 | | | 周一，玉米近月 2601 和 2603 合约先跌后涨，期价当日下探后尾盘收复部分失地。 | | | | 价格整体维持稳定，部分企业玉米价格有涨有跌，调整范围有限。东北粮源持续 | | | | 北玉米供应紧张的局面有望得到缓解。 周末销区市场玉米价格坚挺运行。港口 | | | | 贸易商报价保持高位，但市场整体购销活跃度一般，高价成交偏少。下游饲料厂 | | | | 观望心态为主，维持 30-40 天安全头寸滚动补库。技术上，现货玉米报价延续强 | | | | 势表现，期价震荡调整。12 月警惕玉米期、现报价持续调整，短多注意设置动 | | | | 态止盈。 | | | | 周一，CBOT 大豆收跌，因市场关注出口销售数据。USDA 检验报告显示，美豆 口销售报告显示，截至 10 月 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian palm oil production increased in November, and the market expects inventory growth to pressure the futures. There is a risk of a downward break in domestic palm oil futures. It is necessary to closely monitor whether the domestic palm oil futures can effectively stand above 8,600 points [1]. - Soybean oil: The market doubts China's ability to purchase 850 million tons of soybeans this year. CBOT soybeans are under pressure, and domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient but demand is limited. However, international oils still have some upward momentum, and it is expected that CBOT soybean oil will likely drive up the domestic oils market after the opening. Currently, the import cost of domestic soybeans remains high, and the spot basis quotation will have limited fluctuations in the short term [1]. Sugar - International sugar: The cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil by the end of October has exceeded 38 million tons, and the production forecast for this season is between 40.1 - 40.8 million tons. The price of hydrous ethanol converted to sugar is above 16 cents per pound, and the low sugar - making ratio is expected to be maintained. The futures market for raw sugar lacks new negative factors, and the price is consolidating and bottoming out, expected to remain firm in the short term [3][4]. - Domestic sugar: The new sugar in Guangxi has entered the market, driving down the price of Yunnan sugar. Although processed sugar and beet sugar are affected to some extent, their prices are relatively firm. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern [4]. Cotton - Internationally, the USDA's cotton export sales in October were stable, and Chinese buyers have gradually resumed purchases but in limited quantities. The cotton harvest in the US is nearly 80% complete, and the quality of new cotton has improved. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton still faces hedging pressure when rising, but the pressure is not concentrated. The demand from textile enterprises for spot cotton is weak, but pre - sales are being delivered, which eases the short - term supply pressure. The basis of spot sales is firm, and there is strong support below Zhengzhou cotton. In the short term, cotton prices are expected to oscillate slightly stronger within a range [7]. Eggs - The number of newly - laid hens remains low, and the number of old hens being slaughtered has increased significantly. As a result, the inventory of laying hens is on a downward trend, and production capacity is contracting. The suitable storage weather has enhanced the inventory - holding capacity of each link, and the market supply pressure has been alleviated. With the approaching of "Double 12", promotions by e - commerce platforms and supermarkets are expected to stimulate terminal consumption, mainly for small and medium - sized eggs. Food enterprises also show an intention to stock up at low prices. Under multiple factors, the market demand is expected to improve slightly next week. Egg prices have reached a phased low, and downstream replenishment has increased, so there is a possibility of a slight rebound in egg prices [9]. Meal - The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose pattern. The fixed - price increases with the market, and the basis slightly declines. Downstream feed enterprises are cautious about replenishing inventory, and the market is unlikely to see a continuous upward trend. It is necessary to continue to monitor China's purchases of US and Brazilian soybeans and the situation of state - reserve auctions. Soybean meal is expected to oscillate, and there is a risk of a decline after short - term chasing [12]. Pigs - The market supply is accelerating, and the slaughter is smooth. Although the curing of meat in the southwest region has started, the market demand support is limited, the price of large pigs is weak, and the spot market performs poorly. Pig prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening structure. The Ministry of Agriculture announced that the number of fertile sows in October decreased to 39.9 million heads, and the logic of production capacity reduction is still being traded in the futures market. The strategy of inter - month reverse arbitrage can continue to be held. Each contract shows signs of stabilizing and rebounding, but the short - term suppression of the spot market remains, and its sustainability needs to be monitored [15]. Corn - In the northeast region, farmers are reluctant to sell, and with the need for port replenishment due to low inventory and the support of state - reserve purchases, the price remains firm. In the north - central region, the grain sales are adjusted according to the price, but due to the shortage of high - quality grain and transportation difficulties, the price oscillates with limited fluctuations. Overall, the short - term supply of corn is tight, but the current grain - selling progress is slow, with about 70% of the grain yet to be sold, and there is selling pressure before the Spring Festival. On the demand side, traders are cautious about building inventories, deep - processing enterprises have low inventories and need to replenish, and feed enterprises mainly maintain a safety inventory and purchase as needed. In the short term, the futures price remains firm due to the supply - demand mismatch, but the price increase is limited due to the unsolved supply pressure. It is necessary to pay attention to the change in the rhythm of corn supply. If the selling pressure materializes as expected, the price may be under pressure [18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: From November 26th to 27th, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu decreased from 8,560 to 8,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton or 1.18%. The futures price of Y2601 decreased from 8,224 to 8,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan/ton or 0.91%. The basis decreased from 336 to 310, a decrease of 26 or 8.39%. The spot basis quotation decreased by 10. The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 14,532 to 22,029, a decrease of 7,497 or 34.03% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased from 8,290 to 8,390 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton or 1.21%. The futures price of P2601 increased from 8,440 to 8,528 yuan/ton, an increase of 88 yuan/ton or 1.04%. The basis increased from - 150 to - 138, an increase of 12 or 8.00%. The spot basis quotation remained unchanged. The import cost on the disk increased by 20 yuan/ton or 0.22%, and the import profit on the disk increased by 68 yuan/ton or 12.72%. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 380 [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 10,110 yuan/ton. The futures price of OI601 decreased from 9,810 to 9,772 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton or 0.48%. The basis increased from 291 to 338, an increase of 47 or 16.15%. The spot basis quotation decreased by 50. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The soybean oil inter - month spread (01 - 05) increased from 200 to 222, an increase of 22 or 11.00%. The palm oil inter - month spread (01 - 05) decreased from - 58 to - 62, a decrease of 4 or 6.90%. The rapeseed oil inter - month spread (01 - 05) decreased from 279 to 233, a decrease of 46 or 16.49%. The soybean - palm oil spread remained unchanged at 170, and the 2601 contract's soybean - palm oil spread decreased from - 548 to - 588, a decrease of 40 or 7.30%. The rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased from 1,650 to 1,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 or 6.06%, and the 2601 contract's rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased from 1,660 to 1,548 yuan/ton, a decrease of 121 or 7.25% [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of the sugar 2601 contract decreased from 5,403 to 5,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton or 0.06%. The price of the 2605 contract increased from 5,325 to 5,327 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton or 0.04%. The price of the ICE raw sugar main contract increased from 15.12 to 15.21 cents per pound, an increase of 0.09 cents per pound or 0.60%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased from 78 to 73 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 6.41%. The number of positions in the main contract decreased from 377,132 to 361,517, a decrease of 15,812 or 4.14%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 75 to 0, a decrease of 75 or 100.00%. The number of valid forecasts remained unchanged at 183 [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged at 5,450 and 5,440 yuan/ton respectively. The Nanning basis decreased from 125 to 123 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton or 1.60%. The Kunming basis decreased from 115 to 113 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton or 1.74%. The price of imported Brazilian sugar within the quota increased from 4,114 to 4,157 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton or 1.05%. The price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota increased from 5,214 to 5,271 yuan/ton, an increase of 57 yuan/ton or 1.09%. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar within the quota and Nanning increased from - 1,336 to - 1,293 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton or 3.22%. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota and Nanning increased from - 236 to - 179 yuan/ton, an increase of 57 yuan/ton or 24.15% [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production increased from 996.32 to 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 119.89 million tons or 12.03%. The cumulative national sugar sales increased from 960.00 to 1,048.00 million tons, an increase of 88.00 million tons or 9.17%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi increased from 618.14 to 646.50 million tons, an increase of 28.36 million tons or 4.59%. The monthly sugar sales in Guangxi decreased from 45.34 to 26.66 million tons, a decrease of 18.68 million tons or - 41.20%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate decreased from 96.41% to 93.90%, a decrease of 2.51 percentage points or - 2.60%. The cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi increased from 89.60% to 93.90%, an increase of 4.30 percentage points or 4.80%. The national industrial inventory decreased from 116.00 to 68.21 million tons, a decrease of 47.79 million tons or - 41.20%. The industrial inventory of sugar in Guangxi increased from 27.14 to 44.21 million tons, an increase of 17.07 million tons or 62.90%. The industrial inventory of sugar in Yunnan increased from 26.58 to 33.65 million tons, an increase of 7.07 million tons or 26.60%. Sugar imports increased from 40.00 to 55.00 million tons, an increase of 15.00 million tons or 37.50% [3]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of the cotton 2605 contract increased from 13,605 to 13,685 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton or 0.59%. The price of the 2601 contract increased from 13,640 to 13,725 yuan/ton, an increase of 82 yuan/ton or 0.62%. The price of the ICE US cotton main contract increased from 64.61 to 64.73 cents per pound, an increase of 0.12 cents per pound or 0.19%. The 5 - 1 spread decreased from - 35 to - 40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 14.29%. The number of positions in the main contract increased from 530,074 to 545,268, an increase of 15,194 or 2.87%. The number of warehouse receipts increased from 2,382 to 2,408, an increase of 26 or 1.09%. The number of valid forecasts increased from 1,697 to 1,884, an increase of 187 or 11.02% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton increased from 14,716 to 14,723 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton or 0.05%. The CC Index of 3128B cotton increased from 14,891 to 14,896 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton or 0.03%. The FC Index of M: 1% remained unchanged at 12,935 yuan/ton. The price difference between 3128B and the 01 contract decreased from 1,111 to 1,038 yuan/ton, a decrease of 73 yuan/ton or 6.57%. The price difference between 3128B and the 05 contract decreased from 1,076 to 998 yuan/ton, a decrease of 78 yuan/ton or 7.25%. The price difference between the CC Index of 3128B and the FC Index of M: 1% increased from 1,956 to 1,961 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton or 0.26% [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory increased from 293.06 to 363.97 million tons, an increase of 70.91 million tons or 24.2%. The industrial inventory increased from 88.82 to 93.14 million tons, an increase of 4.32 million tons or 4.9%. The import volume decreased from 10.00 to 9.00 million tons, a decrease of 1.00 million tons or - 10.0%. The bonded area inventory increased from 31.10 to 32.80 million tons, an increase of 1.70 million tons or 5.5%. The year - on - year inventory of the textile industry decreased from 0.30 to 0.10, a decrease of 0.20 or - 66.7%. The inventory days of yarn increased from 26.12 to 26.35 days, an increase of 0.23 days or 0.9%. The inventory days of grey cloth decreased from 31.97 to 31.12 days, a decrease of 0.85 days or - 2.7%. The cotton outbound shipping volume increased from 43.60 to 53.46 million tons, an increase of 9.86 million tons or 22.6%. The immediate processing profit of spinning enterprises for C32s increased from - 1,720.10 to - 1,645.60 yuan/ton, an increase of 74.50 yuan/ton or 4.3%. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles increased from 123.05 to 147.08 billion yuan, an increase of 24.03 billion yuan or 19.5%. The year - on - year monthly retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles increased from 4.70% to 6.30%, an increase of 1.60 percentage points or 34.0%. The export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products decreased from 119.67 to 112.58 billion US dollars, a decrease of 7.08 billion

农产品日报（2025 年 11 月 28 日） 一、研究观点 | 点评 | 品种 | | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周四，玉米近月 | | 2601 合约减仓调整，期价以小阳线收盘。资金向 2603 合约转移。 当日，玉米 1 月合约冲高回落，3、5 月合约继续上行。现货市场中，产区、港 续上涨，目前农户仍较为惜售。 华北地区玉米价格稳中偏弱运行，山东深加工 | 震荡上涨 | | 口玉米报价上涨。东北产区玉米价格仍延续偏强运行的态势，从各地价格上涨情 | | | | | 况来看，辽宁、吉林价格上涨幅度最为剧烈，黑龙江跟涨情况稍显一般，价格持 | | | | | 企业早间门前剩余车辆再次突破 | 玉米 | 1000 台以上，部分深加工企业价格窄幅下调 | | | 10-20 | | 元/吨。河北、河南深加工玉米价格基本维持稳定。销区市场玉米价格继 | | | 续上涨。期货盘面仍偏强，产区贸易商为执行前期合同被迫收粮交付，当前农户 | | | | | 售粮心态一般，上量一般。销区港口贸易商成本提高后继续上调报价。下游饲料 | | | | | 企业维持观望心态滚动建库。技术上 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-11-28 苹果库存压力仍存，红枣货源质量下滑 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2601合约9529元/吨，较前一日变动-2元/吨，幅度-0.02%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格3.75元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01-2029，较前一日变动+2；陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.15元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01-1229，较前一日变动+2。 近期市场资讯，晚富士库存富士交易氛围平淡，客商调货及库内包装均不多。西部产区客商零星寻货，多以果农 两级货源为主，成交有限；部分客商包装自存货源补充市场。山东产区零星出库，多以外贸渠道小果走货为主， 地面交易基本结束。栖霞80#一二级主流参考价3.5-4元/斤，栖霞80#一二级半主流参考价3.0-3.3元/斤，65#、70#出 库价格1.8-2.2元/斤附近。甘肃产区静宁果农好货出库价格4.5-5.5元/斤不等。庆阳出库价格3.6-4.5元/斤不等；陕西 洛川产区果农货半商品出库价格3.8-4.3元/斤。库内成交氛围一般，进入短暂的季节性淡季，终端市场消 ...

Investment Ratings - Douyi: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★★★ [1] - Live Pigs: ★★★ [1] - Eggs: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The domestic soybean market features high - quality products commanding high prices, with the price difference between domestic and imported soybeans fluctuating. Attention should be paid to the US soybean export situation in the short - term and the South American soybean产区 weather in the medium - term [2]. - The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the crush volume has increased, and the soybean meal inventory has returned to a high level. Wait for the signing of the new China - US economic and trade agreement and track its implementation, and pay attention to South American weather changes [3]. - The overseas supply - demand situation of palm oil is still weak, but the marginal negative factors have eased. The soybean oil market shows a trend of reducing positions and rebounding. Pay attention to the US soybean price, export situation in the short - term and South American weather in the medium - term [4]. - The rapeseed futures show a pattern of meal rising and oil falling. The focus is on the clearance and crushing of Australian rapeseeds. It is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards the rapeseed sector [6]. - The corn futures are oscillating strongly. Pay attention to the signing of the China - US trade agreement, the selling progress of new corn in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat [7]. - The pig industry's capacity reduction continues. The pig price is weakly adjusted. The pig price may form a second bottom in the first half of next year [8]. - The egg market trades on the expectation of a decline in future inventory. The medium - term supply pressure of the egg industry is expected to ease [9]. Summary by Category Douyi - The domestic soybean futures contract is actively reducing positions, with price oscillations and stable spot market quotations. The new - crop domestic soybean market adheres to the principle of high - quality products commanding high prices. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans fluctuates. Monitor the domestic soybean spot market and policy guidance [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - The US soybean market is closed for Thanksgiving. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the crush volume has increased, and the soybean meal inventory has returned to a high level. Wait for the signing of the China - US economic and trade agreement and track its implementation, and pay attention to South American weather changes. Look for opportunities to go long at low prices [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The high - frequency data of the Malaysian palm oil export market is still poor, and the inventory in the Indonesian market increased slightly in September. The marginal negative factors in the palm oil market have eased. The soybean oil market shows a trend of reducing positions and rebounding. Pay attention to the US soybean price, export situation in the short - term and South American weather in the medium - term [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed futures show a pattern of meal rising and oil falling. The focus is on the clearance and crushing of Australian rapeseeds. The buying of ships is expected in the future. It is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards the rapeseed sector [6]. Corn - The corn futures are oscillating strongly. The spot price of corn in the northern ports is firm and rising, and farmers are reluctant to sell. The downstream corn inventory is low, and the willingness to replenish inventory has increased. Wait for the signing of the China - US trade agreement, and pay attention to the selling progress of new corn in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat [7]. Live Pigs - The inventory of breeding sows decreased in October 2025. The pig industry's capacity reduction continues. The pig price is weakly adjusted. The pig price may form a second bottom in the first half of next year [8]. Eggs - The egg futures have significantly reduced positions, and the prices of the January contract and the distant - month July/August contracts have risen significantly. The medium - term supply pressure of the egg industry is expected to ease [9].

农产品日报（2025 年 11 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周三，玉米近月 2601 合约减仓下行，资金向 2603 合约转移。当日，玉米 1 月合 | | | | 约冲高回落，3、5 月合约继续上行。现货市场中，产区、港口玉米报价上涨。 | | | | 东北产区玉米价格仍延续偏强运行的态势，从各地价格上涨情况来看，辽宁、吉 | | | | 林价格上涨幅度最为剧烈，黑龙江跟涨情况稍显一般，价格持续上涨，目前农户 | | | | 仍较为惜售。 昨日华北地区玉米价格稳中偏弱运行，山东深加工企业早间门前 | | | | 剩余车辆再次突破 1000 台以上，部分深加工企业价格窄幅下调 10-20 元/吨。河 | 震荡上涨 | | | 北、河南深加工玉米价格基本维持稳定。销区市场玉米价格继续上涨。期货盘面 | | | | 仍偏强，产区贸易商为执行前期合同被迫收粮交付，当前农户售粮心态一般，上 | | | | 量一般。销区港口贸易商成本提高后继续上调报价。下游饲料企业维持观望心态 | | | | 滚动建库。技术上，周三玉米 2601 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-11-27 下游供应宽松，豆粕延续震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3015元/吨，较前日变动+2元/吨，幅度+0.07%；菜粕2601合约2439元/吨，较前 日变动+8元/吨，幅度+0.33%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3060元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M01+45， 较前日变动+8；江苏地区豆粕现货2980元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M01-35，较前日变动-2；广东地区豆 粕现货价格2970元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M01-45，较前日变动-2。福建地区菜粕现货价格2620元/ 吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差RM01+181，较前日变动+2。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部周二公布的出口销售报告显示，10月9日止当周，美国当前市场年度大豆出口销售净增 78.50万吨，较之前一周减少15%，较前四周均值减少9%，市场此前预估为净增50.0万吨至净增140.0万吨。11月25 日，巴西全国谷物出口商协会表示，巴西11月大豆出口量料触及440万吨，上周预测为471万吨。 市场分析 当前国内供应依旧较为宽松 ...