Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Affected by mixed fundamentals, the futures price will continue to fluctuate within a range. In the domestic market, the Dalian palm oil futures market maintains a volatile consolidation trend, with short - term support above 8,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through the moving - average resistance and whether Malaysian palm oil can firmly stand above 4,000 ringgit [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Uncertainty in the US biodiesel policy makes CBOT soybean oil vulnerable to related varieties. Although China's purchase of US soybeans boosts CBOT soybean prices, the abundant global soybean supply still weighs on it. In the domestic market, the Spring Festival stocking and reduced soybean imports are positive, but the CBOT soybean price may still correct, and the May contract of Dalian soybean oil faces pressure around 7,950 - 8,000 yuan [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: With limited domestic available spot, the market is watching whether COFCO will start production on the 10th. Supported by tight spot supply, the short - term downside is limited, and the overall trend is wide - range volatile adjustment [1]. - **Jujube**: The spot market price is weakly stable, with increased customer inquiries but no significant improvement in transactions. Affected by the warming commodity market sentiment, the futures price rebounds, and the basis narrows. The new - season warehouse receipt generation accelerates. Short - term fundamentals lack obvious drivers, and the futures price will fluctuate and consolidate [2]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the corn market is supported by farmers' reluctance to sell and downstream replenishment needs, but selling pressure expectations and policy - supplemented supply limit the upside. Attention should be paid to subsequent policy releases and farmers' selling attitudes [5]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar - cane crushing is nearing the end, and the market focus shifts to the Northern Hemisphere. India's sugar production has increased year - on - year, while Thailand's is still down. The international sugar price is expected to fluctuate between 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the Spring Festival stocking demand is strong, but the peak - season supply and cautious market sentiment limit the upside, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8][9]. - **Apple**: With the approaching Spring Festival stocking season, the market is more active, with good - quality apples in short supply and high prices. However, the high price may suppress consumption, and other fruits compete with apples. The futures price has rebounded, and attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction progress [13]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton futures are under pressure from falling oil prices and a stronger US dollar. In the US, the cotton - growing area is experiencing rising temperatures and reduced precipitation. The domestic cotton price is supported by strong expectations of reduced planting in Xinjiang and downstream replenishment, but is restricted by low foreign cotton costs and the off - season demand. In the short term, the cotton price will maintain a bullish trend, but there is a risk of correction after continuous price increases [16]. - **Egg**: Based on previous chick - sales data, the laying - hen inventory may decrease in January, alleviating supply pressure. After the continuous increase in egg prices, the market resists high - priced goods. The current market circulation is smooth, and inventories are low. With the approaching traditional consumption peak, the market sentiment is bullish, but the oversupply situation may limit the upside, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate at a low level [18]. - **Pig**: The spot price has returned to a volatile pattern. After the New Year's Day, market demand has declined significantly. Although the northern pig supply has decreased, high prices have dampened slaughterhouse procurement enthusiasm, and the southern demand has also weakened. Some second - fattening operations are still taking place, but overall enthusiasm is low. The market expects high consumption before the Spring Festival, but the supply in January is abundant, and the futures price is affected by market sentiment, with limited upside potential [19]. - **Meal**: The external market is under pressure from the global supply - demand situation, and the market awaits the USDA supply - demand report. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans and meals is currently abundant, but the expected future shortage supports the 3 - 5 spread and basis. The first - quarter soybean arrival is expected to be low, but there is uncertainty in auctions and arrivals. The downside of soybean meal is limited, and the short - term market sentiment is positive, with the futures price fluctuating strongly [21]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1. Price and Spread - **Futures and Spot Prices**: - **Palm Oil**: On January 7, the spot price in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the futures price of P2605 was 8,562 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan or 0.73% [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 8,460 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the futures price of Y2605 was 7,958 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan or 0.58% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the futures price of OI2605 was 9,606 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 0.38% [1]. - **Jujube**: The futures prices of jujube 2605, 2607, and 2609 all increased, with the 2605 contract rising 175 yuan or 1.95% to 9,150 yuan/ton [2]. - **Corn**: The futures price of corn 2603 was 2,248 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 1.17%, and the basis was 72 yuan, down 31 yuan or 30.10% [5]. - **Sugar**: The futures price of sugar 2605 was 5,281 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 0.42% [8]. - **Apple**: The futures price of the apple 2605 contract was 8,583 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan or 0.32% [10]. - **Cotton**: The futures price of cotton 2605 was 15,035 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan or 1.21% [16]. - **Egg**: The futures price of the egg 03 contract was 3,011 yuan/500KG, up 11 yuan or 0.37% [18]. - **Pig**: The futures price of the pig 2605 contract was 12,260 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.04% [19]. - **Meal**: The futures price of soybean meal M2605 was 2,811 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 1.26%, and the futures price of rapeseed meal RM2605 was 2,419 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan or 1.21% [21]. - **Spreads**: - **Three - oil Inter - period Spread**: The 05 - 09 spread of the three - oil was 150 yuan, up 12 yuan or 8.70% [1]. - **Palm Oil Inter - period Spread**: The 05 - 09 spread was 110 yuan, down 8 yuan or - 6.78% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil Inter - period Spread**: The 05 - 09 spread was 14 yuan, down 38 yuan or - 73.08% [1]. - **Soybean - Palm Oil Spread**: The spot spread was - 110 yuan (unchanged), and the 2605 spread was - 604 yuan, down 16 yuan or - 2.72% [1]. - **Rapeseed - Soybean Oil Spread**: The spot spread was 1,440 yuan (unchanged), and the 2605 spread was 1,137 yuan, down 81 yuan or - 6.65% [1]. - **Jujube 5 - 7 Spread**: It was - 45 yuan, up 25 yuan or 35.71% [2]. - **Jujube 5 - 9 Spread**: It was - 180 yuan, up 40 yuan or 18.18% [2]. - **Corn 3 - 7 Spread**: It was - 36 yuan, up 10 yuan or 21.74% [5]. - **Sugar 5 - 9 Spread**: It was - 12 yuan, up 4 yuan or 25.00% [8]. - **Apple 5 - 10 Spread**: It was 1,109 yuan, up 26 yuan or 2.40% [10]. - **Cotton 5 - 9 Spread**: It was - 190 yuan, down 5 yuan or - 2.70% [16]. - **Egg 3 - 4 Spread**: It was - 253 yuan, down 3 yuan or - 1.20% [18]. - **Pig 3 - 5 Spread**: It was - 475 yuan, down 30 yuan or - 6.74% [19]. - **Soybean Meal 05 - 09 Spread**: It was - 77 yuan, up 18 yuan or 18.95% [21]. - **Rapeseed Meal 05 - 09 Spread**: It was - 46 yuan, up 1 yuan or 2.13% [21]. 3.2. Inventory and Supply - demand - **Inventory**: - **Palm Oil**: The warehouse receipt on January 7 was 1,248, up 688 or 122.86% [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The warehouse receipt was 28,264 (unchanged) [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The warehouse receipt was 2,130, down 1,167 [1]. - **Jujube**: The warehouse receipt was 2,263, up 158 or 7.51%, and the effective forecast was 745, down 107 or - 12.56% [2]. - **Corn**: The warehouse receipt was 34,655, up 3,000 or 9.48% [5]. - **Sugar**: The warehouse receipt was unchanged at 1000, and the effective forecast was 4,563 (unchanged) [8]. - **Apple**: The national cold - storage inventory was 733.56 tons, down 10.48 tons or - 1.41% [10]. - **Cotton**: The commercial inventory was 534.90 tons, up 66.54 tons or 14.2%, and the industrial inventory was 98.39 tons, up 4.43 tons or 4.7% [16]. - **Meal**: The soybean meal warehouse receipt was 25,480, up 700 or 2.8% [21]. - **Supply - demand**: - **Sugar**: The national cumulative sugar production decreased by 23.24% year - on - year, and the cumulative sales decreased by 42.53% year - on - year. In Guangxi, the cumulative production decreased by 73.87% year - on - year, and the monthly sales decreased by 68.63% year - on - year [8]. - **Cotton**: The import volume increased by 33.3% month - on - month, and the textile industry's inventory decreased year - on - year [16]. - **Pig**: The slaughter volume increased by 0.63% day - on - day, and the self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits improved [19].

Core Viewpoint - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures showed mixed performance on January 7, with sugar futures rising while cotton and cocoa futures declined [1] Group 1: Commodity Performance - Sugar futures increased by 1.42%, closing at 14.97 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures decreased by 0.31%, closing at 64.86 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures fell by 0.34%, closing at $5,934.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures saw a slight increase of 0.11%, closing at 374.25 cents per pound [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [7] - Pulp: Neutral [10] Core Views of the Report - The cotton market shows a short - term supply - demand imbalance with pressure on ICE cotton in the short - term, while long - term cotton prices are expected to be bullish. The sugar market is in a surplus situation in the short - to - medium term, but long - term prices are not overly pessimistic. The pulp market is affected by supply disruptions and may see a short - term bullish trend, but the long - term depends on demand improvement and inventory digestion [2][5][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,855 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton (+1.36%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,487 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,711 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan/ton. As of December 25, 2025, the US had cumulatively signed 1.519 million tons of 2025/26 cotton exports, reaching 57.20% of the annual expected exports, and shipped 674,000 tons with a shipment rate of 44.39%. China had cumulatively signed 68,000 tons of US cotton and shipped 26,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA's December adjustment to global cotton supply - demand data was small, with both production and demand decreasing in the 25/26 season and a slight increase in ending inventory. US cotton production increased slightly, with greater inventory pressure. The short - term ICE cotton is under pressure, and the long - term downward space is limited. Domestically, cotton production increased significantly in the 25/26 season. As the sales progress accelerated, the hedging resistance on the disk weakened. However, downstream demand showed a marginal weakening trend [2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral to bullish. In the whole year, domestic cotton consumption is expected to increase due to the expansion of spinning capacity. With high production and consumption and low imports, the supply - demand is expected to be balanced, and there may be a tight inventory situation at the end of the year. Considering the possible reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area next year, long - term cotton prices are expected to be bullish, but short - term high - level corrections should be vigilant [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5259 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5340 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5200 yuan/ton, unchanged. Bihar in India plans to expand sugarcane planting area and restart and build sugar mills [4] Market Analysis - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated narrowly. In the 25/26 season, the global sugar market is in a surplus. In the short - term, the further decline space of raw sugar is limited, but the rebound momentum is restricted. In the long - term, there are uncertainties in weather and sugar - making ratio, and some institutions predict a decline in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season and a reduction in Thailand's planting area. Domestically, sugar production is expected to increase for the third year, and the supply is seasonally increasing. The import profit from Brazil is high, and the supply pressure is still there, but the import of syrup and premix may decrease next year [5][6] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. The domestic fundamental driving force is still downward. Although the valuation is low, there is still a possibility of a new low, but the overall decline space is limited. In the short - to - medium term, sugar prices are expected to fluctuate and bottom out [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5612 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton (+1.48%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5175 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market showed a strengthening trend, with some prices of imported softwood and hardwood pulp rising by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, while the prices of imported natural and chemimechanical pulp remained stable [8] Market Analysis - The pulp futures price was strong. On the supply side, there were continuous news of overseas pulp mill shutdowns and maintenance. On the demand side, the European port wood pulp inventory continued to decline in November, indicating improving demand. Domestically, although there was a large - scale production capacity of finished paper this year, the terminal demand was insufficient, and the port inventory was still at a high level. However, the port inventory has been declining recently, and the expansion of downstream paper production capacity next year may support pulp prices [9] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. Overseas supply disruptions continue, and there is an expectation of inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival. The domestic demand may show a moderate recovery, and the short - term trend is expected to be bullish, but the upward height depends on the improvement of demand and inventory digestion [10]

农产品日报（2026 年 1 月 7 日） 一、研究观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 | 补栏淘汰意愿变化对产能的影响。 | | | --- | --- | | 周二，生猪期货反弹，主力 2603 合约盘中震荡向上，日收涨 1.29%，报收 11810 元/吨。卓创数据显示，昨日中国生猪日度均价 12.5 元/公斤，环比涨 0.06 元/公 | | | 斤，基准交割地河南市场生猪均价 13 元/公斤，环比涨 0.18 元/公斤，四川平， | | | 山东、广东、辽宁涨。大体重生猪需求较好，养殖端有压栏增重情绪，生猪实际 | | | 生猪 供应偏紧，支撑生猪现货价格上涨。我的农产品公布数据显示，12 月，规模长 | 震荡 | | 能繁母猪存栏环比下降 0.18%，中小散环比下降 1.19%，综合环比降幅 0.22%，能 | | | 繁母猪存栏环比延续下降，对期货市场形成支撑，远月合约增仓向上。建议设置 | | | 动态止盈，关注生猪期货主力合约长期均线的技术表现。 | | 二、市场信息 1、 印度尼西亚贸易部表示，印尼已将 1 月份毛棕榈油参考价格定为每吨 915 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn is expected to experience a downward trend with fluctuations. The maize market is affected by wheat auction sales policies, and during the period from New Year's Day to the Spring Festival, there is a bearish outlook. The trading activity of maize is expected to gradually increase as dry grains increase and the Spring Festival approaches [2]. - Soybean meal is expected to trade in a narrow range. The CBOT soybean prices rose on Monday, but the domestic double - meal market is trading lightly. The spot inventory is rising, and the basis is weak, which restricts the price increase. A double - selling strategy is recommended [2]. - Oils are expected to trade with fluctuations. The BMD palm oil rose on Monday, but the domestic oil market is divided, with palm oil dropping significantly and soybean oil and rapeseed oil showing strength. A double - selling strategy is recommended [2]. - Eggs are expected to trade with fluctuations. The spot price of eggs is stable during the festival, and there is pressure on the short - term supply. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the changes in the willingness of the breeding end to replenish and cull [2]. - Pigs are expected to trade with fluctuations. The spot price of pigs has declined after the festival, and the futures price has also adjusted. It is recommended to set a dynamic stop - profit for profitable long positions and pay attention to the technical performance of the long - term moving average of the main pig futures contract [3]. Group 3: Summary of Market Information - Indonesia has set the reference price of crude palm oil in January at $915.64 per ton, lower than that in December. The export tax will remain at $74 per ton, and a 10% special export tax is also levied [4]. - The estimated soybean production in Argentina for the 2025/26 season has been lowered by 1% to 46 million tons, with an estimated range of 44.8 - 47.2 million tons [4]. - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from late December to mid - December 2025, among 50 important production materials in 9 categories, 18 products' prices rose, 28 declined, and 4 remained unchanged. The price of live pigs (ternary) increased by 1.7% month - on - month [4]. - According to SPPOMA data, from December 1 - 31, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 7.39% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.13% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 8.07% month - on - month [4]. - OPEC+ agreed to maintain stable oil production in the first quarter of 2026. The organization had agreed in November last year to suspend production increases in January, February, and March. The next meeting will be held on February 1 [5]. Group 4: Summary of Variety Spreads 3.1 Contract Spreads - The report presents contract spreads such as corn 5 - 9, corn starch 5 - 9, soybeans 5 - 9, soybean meal 5 - 9, soybean oil 5 - 9, palm oil 5 - 9, eggs 5 - 9, and pigs 5 - 9 [6][7][8][10][13]. 3.2 Contract Basis - The report presents contract basis such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [15][16][18][20][24]. Group 5: Introduction of the Agricultural Product Research Team - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in the Futures Daily and Securities Times' Best Futures Analyst selection for many years. She led the team to win the title of the top ten research and investment teams of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2019 and the Grand Prize of the "Sailing in the Futures Sea" College Student Practice Competition of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2023 [28]. - Hou Xueling, an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, has more than a decade of futures experience. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title for many years and her team has won multiple awards [28]. - Kong Hailan, an economics master, is a researcher in the egg and pig industries at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has participated in many media interviews and her team has won multiple awards [28].

农产品早报 2026-01-06 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周一郑州白糖期货价格低开后反弹，郑糖 5 月合约收盘价报 5257 元/吨，较前一交易日上涨 6 元/吨，或 0.11%。现货方面，广西制糖集团新糖报价 5280-5360 元/吨，报价较上个交易日下跌 10-20 元/吨；云南 制糖集团新糖报价 5150-5190 元/吨，报价较上个交易日下跌 10-20 元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间 5760-5800 元/吨，报价较上个交易日下跌 0-10 元/吨。广西现货-郑糖主力合约基差 23 元/吨。 杨泽元 软商品、油脂油料研究员 据印度全国合作糖厂联合会有限公司(NFCSF)发布的数据显示，截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，印度糖厂已压 榨甘蔗 1.33 亿吨，同比增加 0.23 亿吨。本榨季截至目前共有 499 家糖厂开榨。截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日 食糖产量达 ...

Core Insights - Soybean futures are experiencing a rally, with prices increasing by 15 to 18.25 cents, and cash bean prices rising to $9.87 1/2, up 16.75 cents [1] - Export inspections indicate soybean shipments reached 980,518 MT, a 24.3% increase from the previous week but a 26.7% decrease year-over-year [2] - November crush data shows a total of 220.48 million bushels of soybeans crushed, down 6.7% from the previous month but up 4.98% year-over-year [4] Export Data - Soybean export sales for the week ending December 25 were reported at 1.178 MMT, exceeding the previous week and more than double the same week last year [3] - China was the leading destination for soybean shipments, receiving 397,069 MT, followed by Egypt with 182,553 MT and Taiwan with 74,996 MT [2] Market Projections - The USDA projects a full marketing year increase of 110 million bushels year-over-year for soybean crush, with first-quarter crush at 661.74 million bushels, up 49.5 million bushels from last year [4] - StoneX estimates the Brazilian soybean crop for 2025/26 at 177.6 MMT, reflecting a slight increase from previous estimates [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. corn price is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern due to high production despite reduced inventory and export benefits [4][8] - The spot price of domestic corn is relatively stable in the short term. North - east corn is relatively strong with farmers' reluctance to sell, while North - China corn is weakening. The price rebound space of corn is limited, and the 03 corn contract will oscillate within a narrow range [6][8] - The starch price is mainly influenced by corn price and downstream stocking. With rising inventory and weakening corporate profitability, the 03 starch contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data 3.1.1 Futures Disk - For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2293, up 8 (0.35%); C2605 closed at 2252, down 3 (- 0.13%); C2509 closed at 2277, unchanged (0.00%) [2] - For corn starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2486, down 11 (- 0.44%); CS2605 closed at 2552, down 13 (- 0.51%); CS2509 closed at 2598, down 6 (- 0.23%) [2] 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - Corn spot prices in different regions: Qinggang was 2120, Songyuan Jiajie was 2190, Zhucheng Xingmao was 2320, Shouguang was 2266, Jinzhou Port was 2320, Nantong Port was 2390, and Guangdong Port was 2440 [2] - Starch spot prices in different regions: Longfeng was 2750, COFCO was 2700, Jiajie was 2850, Yufeng was 2860, Jinyu Corn was 2800, Zhucheng Xingmao was 2880, and Hengren Industry and Trade was 2760 [2] 3.1.3 Spreads - Corn inter - period spreads: C01 - C05 was 41 (up 11), C05 - C09 was - 25 (down 3), C09 - C01 was - 16 (down 8) [2] - Starch inter - period spreads: CS01 - CS05 was - 66 (up 2), CS05 - CS09 was - 46 (down 7), CS09 - CS01 was 112 (up 5) [2] - Cross - variety spreads: CS09 - C09 was 321 (down 6), CS01 - C01 was 193 (down 19), CS05 - C05 was 300 (down 10) [2] 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Corn - The U.S. corn price is bottom - oscillating. The import profit of foreign corn is rising. The spot price in North - China corn is weakening, and that in North - east corn is relatively strong. The price difference between North - east and North - China corn is narrowing [4][6] - The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is increasing. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of North - east corn before the Spring Festival and the downstream inventory - building situation [6] 3.2.2 Starch - In Shandong, the number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants is increasing, and the local corn spot price is weakening. The starch inventory has risen, with the manufacturer's inventory at 112.3 million tons this week, an increase of 2.1 million tons from last week, a monthly increase of 3.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 24.6% [7] - The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is strong, and the corporate profitability is declining [7] 3.3 Trading Strategies 3.3.1 Unilateral - The 03 U.S. corn has support at 430 cents per bushel. Long positions can be established for the 07 corn contract at low prices [9] 3.3.2 Arbitrage - Hold a wait - and - see attitude [10] 3.4 Corn Options - Adopt a short - term cumulative put option strategy with rolling operations [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The estimated ending stock of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season remains at 290 million bushels, with a low inventory - consumption ratio of 6.7%, which provides some support for the downside of CBOT US soybeans. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of US soybean yield and exports in the January USDA supply - demand report [8]. - There is no obvious bullish factor in South American weather in the short term. The weather in Argentine production areas is dry recently, but the soil moisture is suitable with no obvious adverse impact for now. Brazilian soybean sowing is nearly finished, and harvesting has begun in Paraná state. With the expectation of a large Brazilian soybean harvest, the impact of the selling pressure during the January harvest on Brazilian CX premiums should be monitored. The sum of the US soybean futures price and Brazilian premiums is expected to decline, and M05 is expected to be relatively weak without special events [9]. - In China, the de - stocking of soybeans in January is expected to accelerate. Due to concerns about soybean shortages in the first quarter and extended customs inspections, downstream pre - holiday stocking is expected to be active, which supports domestic spot prices before the Spring Festival. The concentrated ownership of imported soybeans in the first quarter causes a structural supply problem in China, which supports M03. M03 - M05 is still in a positive spread in the short term, but the risk lies in policy changes. The impact of stricter customs inspection policies, the volume, price, and shipping rhythm of imported soybean auctions or directed supplies are hard to predict, so investors are advised to operate cautiously [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - For the basis of the soybean meal main contract (Zhangjiagang), the basis values in Dalian, Tianjin, and other places on December 31st were 411, 391, etc., with a daily increase of 29 [6]. - The basis of 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in Zhangjiagang was 371 on December 31st, with a daily increase of 29 [6]. - The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 129 on December 31st, with a daily increase of 35 [6]. 3.2 Spread Data - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 534, with a decrease of 2; the spot spread (in Guangdong) was 300; the spread of the main contract was 384, with an increase of 9 [7]. 3.3 International Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 6.9584, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 130.00 cents per bushel, with a daily increase of 0. The Brazilian soybean import gross margin per ton was also presented in the 2025 chart [7]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Charts were provided for China's port soybean inventory, major domestic oil mills' soybean inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, major domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventory, etc., covering data from 2020 - 2025 [7]. 3.5 Machine and Pressing Situation - Charts showed the major domestic oil mills' soybean pressing volume in tons and the operating rate from 2020 - 2023 [7].

从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 农产品早报 2026-01-05 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 元旦节前郑州白糖期货价格窄幅震荡，郑糖 5 月合约收盘价报 5251 元/吨，较前一交易日下跌元/吨，或 0.13%。现货方面，广西制糖集团新糖报价 5300-5400 元/吨，报价较上个交易日下跌 10 元/吨；云南制 糖集团新糖报价 5170-5240 元/吨，报价较上个交易日下跌 0-10 元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间 5780-5810 元/吨，报价较上个交易日下跌 0-10 元/吨。广西现货-郑糖主力合约基差 49 元/吨。 杨泽元 软商品、油脂油料研究员 据印度全国合作糖厂联合会有限公司(NFCSF)发布的数据显示，截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，印度糖厂已压 榨甘蔗 1.33 亿吨，同比增加 0.23 亿吨。本榨季截至目前共有 499 家糖厂开榨。截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日 食糖产量达 1183 万吨，同比增加 227 ...