Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The report presents a "volatile" view on various agricultural products including corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs, analyzing their market conditions, supply - demand factors, and price trends, and also gives corresponding trading strategies [1][2] 3) Summary by Directory Research Viewpoints - **Corn**: The corn futures market is in a volatile state. The spot price is weak, with the price in Northeast China moving towards the new - grain price and showing a continuous downward trend. The arrival volume of corn at Shandong deep - processing enterprises has increased, and the price has been slightly adjusted downwards. The downstream procurement willingness is weak, and the short - term demand is difficult to recover significantly. Attention should be paid to the price performance of the November contract at the 2150 integer mark [1] - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rose due to technical trading, and the US soybean harvest is expected to be good. The domestic soybean meal production has increased and prices have declined. Market expectations of a US soybean purchase agreement and state - reserve soybean auctions are affecting the market. It is recommended to focus on short - term trading and participate in monthly positive spreads [1] - **Oils**: BMD palm oil declined due to profit - taking. The export of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 25 increased, while the production decreased. The domestic three major vegetable oils are mainly volatile, with inventory pressure increasing and demand remaining weak. If the spot demand starts, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and the basis is estimated to strengthen. It is recommended to participate in short - term long positions and sell put options [1] - **Eggs**: Egg futures are in a low - level volatile adjustment. The spot price has a slight increase, with stable terminal digestion and most traders purchasing as they sell. The supply pressure still affects the spot price, but there is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in egg prices. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to changes in terminal demand and market sentiment [1][2] - **Pigs**: Pig futures are weakly volatile. The spot price has declined, with large - scale farms increasing their slaughter volume and supply exceeding market digestion. According to seasonal patterns, there is support for pig prices as demand recovers, but the abundant supply still exerts pressure. It is necessary to pay attention to the reaction of the futures market to spot prices and changes in policies and market sentiment [2] Market Information - As of August 24, EU's 2025/26 imports of soybeans, rapeseed, palm oil, and corn all decreased compared to the same period last year [3] - As of August 26, the national soybean oil port inventory increased by 410,000 tons compared to the previous week [3] - Malaysia's Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities is seeking to exempt crude palm kernel oil and refined palm kernel oil from the sales and service tax [3] - From August 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 3.26% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.4%, and the production decreased by 1.21% [3] Variety Spreads - The report provides charts of contract spreads and contract basis for various agricultural products such as corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs, but no specific analysis of these spreads is given [4][5][6][10][12][13][14][16][18][23]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the agricultural product market, including soybean/meal, oils and fats, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs. It assesses the current market situation, important information, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each category [2][4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **Important Information**: On Tuesday, US soybeans rose slightly. Domestic soybean meal was relatively weak due to high inventory and sufficient supply expectations. On Monday, the domestic soybean meal spot price dropped by 20 yuan/ton, and the East China basis remained unchanged at 01 - 110. The downstream inventory days increased slightly by 0.16 days to 8.51 days. Last week, domestic soybean crushing was 2.27 million tons, and this week it is expected to be 2.5283 million tons. The domestic soybean inventory decreased slightly last week, while the soybean meal inventory increased slightly, and the overall equivalent soybean meal inventory remained at a high level. The US soybean production area is expected to have less rainfall in the next week, and it has been dry in August overall, with rainfall forecast to recover in early September. The USDA significantly reduced the planting area, and the US soybean production decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The soybean import cost has been weakly stable recently. The domestic soybean meal market has both strong supply and demand, and the提货 volume has been at a high level. It is expected that the spot market may start to reduce inventory in September, which will support the oil mill's profit. It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range and pay attention to the profit and supply pressure at the upper end [4]. Oils and Fats - **Important Information**: From August 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 23.67%, and the exports from August 1 - 25 are expected to increase by 10.9% - 16.4%. From August 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 0.88% month - on - month, and it is expected to increase by 0.3% from August 1 - 20. In August, China's imported soybean arrivals and oil mill crushing volume are still high, and the commercial soybean oil inventory at the end of August is expected to increase by 8 - 100,000 tons. Due to China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed, the domestic rapeseed imports have decreased recently, and some areas have cancelled orders. It is expected that the rapeseed oil inventory at the end of August will decrease month - on - month. A Brazilian federal judge approved a ban on Monday, temporarily suspending a decision that required grain traders in the world's largest soybean exporter to stop the so - called "Amazon soybean ban" plan [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The US biodiesel policy draft is expected to suppress soybean oil exports. The palm oil production potential in Southeast Asia is insufficient. The low inventories of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia support the price center of oils and fats. If the demand countries maintain normal imports and the palm oil production remains at a neutral level, the producing areas may maintain stable inventory, and there may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy. Before the inventories in the sales areas and producing areas are fully accumulated and there is no negative feedback from the demand in the sales areas, the oils and fats are expected to be volatile and bullish [9]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. The closing price of the January contract was 5,632 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan/ton or 0.98% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,950 - 6,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot price of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5,770 - 5,820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0 - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 6,050 - 6,140 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. As of the week of August 20, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 70, down from 76 in the previous week. The amount of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 2.9169 million tons, down from 3.3179 million tons in the previous week [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: From an international perspective, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil has increased significantly month - on - month since July, and there is an expected increase in production in the new season in major northern hemisphere producing countries such as India. The possibility of a significant rebound in the raw sugar price in the future is low. Domestically, the import supply will gradually increase in the next two months, and the out - of - quota spot import profit has been at the highest level in the past five years. The Zhengzhou sugar price is more likely to continue to fall [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract was 14,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. The spot price of 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was 15,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The 2025 cotton import sliding - scale tariff processing trade quota is 200,000 tons. As of August 24, 2025, the good - quality rate of US cotton was 54%, down 1 percentage point from the previous week, but still significantly higher than the same period last year and at a relatively high level in the same period [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: From a macro perspective, the "dovish" statement of the Fed Chairman on Friday is beneficial for the commodity market to rise. Fundamentally, although the current downstream market consumption is still average, considering the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season and the current low domestic cotton inventory, the fundamentals show signs of marginal improvement. The Zhengzhou cotton price may have upward momentum in the short term [15]. Eggs - **Important Information**: The national egg price was stable with some increases. The average price in the main producing areas rose 0.06 yuan to 3.11 yuan/jin. The supply is stabilizing, the downstream digestion speed is normal, most traders have normal confidence in the future market, the overall inventory has slightly decreased, and the downstream picking - up enthusiasm is normal. The egg price may rise in some areas and remain stable in others today [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fundamentally, the negative cycle of oversupply in the egg market has not been broken. On one hand, the number of newly - laid hens is still increasing, and the proportion of small and medium - sized eggs continues to rise. On the other hand, the consumption postponement caused by supply pressure intensifies the cautious mentality. Only low prices or the start of consumption can break the negative cycle. Before the actual reduction of overall production capacity, the egg price should not be overly optimistic. From a capital game perspective, the current high position in the futures market and the high premium of the near - month contract have been partially corrected. Under the background of reduced selling pressure, it is not advisable to short aggressively. In the future, the strategy should be to reduce short positions or short after a rebound [19]. Pigs - **Important Information**: Yesterday, the domestic pig price generally fell. The average price in Henan dropped 0.15 yuan to 13.56 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped 0.05 yuan to 13.57 yuan/kg. The enthusiasm of farmers for slaughter increased, but there was some reluctance to sell at low prices. The pig price may be stable or fall today [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The current logic is to release pressure by reducing the weight under oversupply. The near - month contract is weakly affected by the spot market. On one hand, policies such as state purchases to support the market are increasing, which may continuously suppress the bearish sentiment. On the other hand, it is still uncertain whether the potential pressure on inventory in the third - quarter end after the increase in the fat - to - standard price difference can offset the increasing supply trend. The market should be viewed with a range - bound idea, and for unilateral trading, more attention should be paid to the trading opportunities after extreme sentiment provides trading space. The far - month reverse spread strategy continues [22].

农产品日报 | 2025-08-26 现货购销良好，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 风险 政策变化 玉米观点 市场要闻与重要数据 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约3117元/吨，较前日变动+29元/吨，幅度+0.94%；菜粕2509合约2547元/吨，较前 日变动+4元/吨，幅度+0.16%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3100元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差M09-17， 较前日变动-9；江苏地区豆粕现货3010元/吨，较前日变动+30元/吨，现货基差M09-107，较前日变动+1；广东地区 豆粕现货价格2960元/吨，较前日变动跌+20元/吨，现货基差M09-157，较前日变动-9。福建地区菜粕现货价格2610 元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差RM09+63，较前日变动+16。 近期市场资讯，Pro Farmer 估计美国玉米产量为 162.04 亿蒲式耳，平均产量为每英亩 182.7 蒲式耳。估计美国大 豆产量为 42.46 亿蒲式耳，平均每英亩 53 蒲式耳。咨询机构AgResource表示，巴西2025/2026年度大豆产量预计 为1.765亿吨，较上一年度增长3%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: The upward space of Malaysian palm oil is expected to be limited by concerns over production growth and potential slowdown in export growth in the second half of the month. Domestic palm oil futures may strengthen again and are expected to rise to the 9800 - 10000 yuan range around the end of the month, but there is a risk of ending the upward trend. In September, there is a risk of a downward trend due to increased production and inventory in Malaysia [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The market expects the US EPA to rule on the backlog of biofuel exemption applications from small refineries. Partial approvals are positive for biodiesel demand, leading to a rebound in CBOT soybean oil. In China, downstream consumption increases in late August, and if domestic soybean oil futures decline due to external market factors, the basis quote may rise further [1]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the corn market has a loose supply - demand situation, with the futures price at a low level. However, the decline may be limited or there may be a slight rebound as new - season corn has not fully entered the market. In the medium term, the cost of new - season corn is expected to decrease, and with stable or increased production, there will be significant supply pressure in the fourth quarter [2]. - **Meal**: The cost of imported soybeans remains high. Canadian rapeseed supply to China is tight, and aquaculture demand is expected to increase. Although there are concerns about future import pressure, the cost of domestic meal still has strong support, and the downward space for domestic meal is limited [6]. - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs remains stable with small fluctuations. Consumption is driven by the start of school and cooler weather in the north. There is a short - term positive impact on the futures market, but there may be a concentrated slaughter before the double festivals, and the near - term market is volatile. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying far - month contracts below 14000 yuan [8]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar market is under pressure from expected supply increases, but there is a risk of lower production in Brazil. It is expected to consolidate in the 15 - 17 cents/pound range in the short term. The domestic sugar futures market is strong, but the spot market is resistant to high prices. With an expected increase in imports, the price has limited upward potential and is expected to fluctuate narrowly [13]. - **Cotton**: The tight old - crop inventory and lower import data in July support the cotton price. However, with the upcoming new - season cotton harvest and expected stable or increased production, the short - term price may fluctuate within a range, and the price will face pressure after the new cotton is on the market [14]. - **Eggs**: The supply of eggs is generally sufficient, and the release of cold - stored eggs will increase the supply pressure. The downstream market has slow digestion, and traders are cautious. The egg price is expected to be bearish [17]. 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil - **Price Changes**: On August 22, the price of domestic 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9620 yuan, down 80 yuan from the previous day. The futures price of P2601 was 9510 yuan, up 74 yuan. The basis decreased significantly [1]. - **Market Factors**: Exports support Malaysian palm oil, but production growth and inventory increase are potential negatives. In China, consumption and market sentiment affect the price [1]. Soybean Oil - **Price Changes**: On August 22, the price of domestic first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8690 yuan, up 30 yuan. The futures price of Y2601 was 8492 yuan, up 70 yuan [1]. - **Market Factors**: The US EPA's decision on biofuel exemptions and domestic consumption during the school - opening and festival - preparation periods affect the price [1]. Corn - **Price Changes**: On August 22, the price of corn in Jinzhou Port was 2175 - 2240 yuan/ton, with a slight change. The futures price of corn starch 2511 was 2498 yuan, up 14 yuan [2]. - **Market Factors**: Supply increases due to more vehicles at deep - processing plants and import auctions. Demand is cautious as enterprises wait for new - season corn [2]. Meal - **Price Changes**: On August 22, the price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was 3050 yuan, down 20 yuan. The price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu was 2540 yuan, down 20 yuan [6]. - **Market Factors**: The yield outlook of US soybeans, the supply of Canadian rapeseed, and domestic import pressure affect the price [6]. Hogs - **Price Changes**: On August 22, the price of the main hog futures contract was 13840 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan. The spot price in different regions had small fluctuations [8]. - **Market Factors**: Consumption changes, market sentiment, and potential concentrated slaughter before festivals affect the price [8]. Sugar - **Price Changes**: On August 22, the price of domestic white sugar 2601 was 5670 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan. The international ICE raw sugar price was 16.44 cents/pound, up 0.08 cents [13]. - **Market Factors**: International supply expectations, Brazilian production conditions, and domestic import expectations affect the price [13]. Cotton - **Price Changes**: On August 22, the price of domestic cotton 2509 was 13760 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The international ICE cotton price was 68.00 cents/pound, up 0.53 cents [14]. - **Market Factors**: Old - crop inventory, import data, and new - season production expectations affect the price [14]. Eggs - **Price Changes**: On August 22, the price of the egg 09 contract was 2920 yuan/500KG, up 41 yuan. The egg产区 price was 3.18 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan [17]. - **Market Factors**: Sufficient supply and slow downstream digestion lead to a bearish price trend [17].

菜籽系产业日报 2025-08-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9891 | 1 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2547 | 4 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(1-5):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 291283 | -5 菜粕月间价差(1-5)(日,元/吨) 6998 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 422516 | 1488 | | | | 174 | | 74 | 0 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 6365 | -98 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -4882 | 3873 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 3487 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 8066 | -187 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 665 | 3.2 期货收盘价(活跃合约):油菜籽(日,元/吨) | ...

软商品日报 2025/08/22 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil & Soybean Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply and demand, price trends, and policy impacts. It provides investment suggestions based on these analyses, such as considering buying at low prices for some products and being cautious about market uncertainties [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The price of domestic soybean futures contracts decreased with increasing positions. Short - term auction of domestic soybeans brought supply pressure, and weak demand depressed prices. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans rebounded from a low level. US soybean prices were strong despite high - record yields due to a decrease in area and lower ending stocks. Short - term attention should be paid to weather, policies, and the performance of imported soybeans [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - The domestic futures market continued to decline with decreasing positions. Globally, the "crushing for oil" pattern emerged due to biodiesel policies. In China, the supply in Q4 is sufficient, but there may be a shortage in Q1 next year due to US tariff policies. Future weather in the US may challenge new - season crops. The relationship between US soybeans and domestic futures has weakened. If no trade agreement is reached by the end of this year, domestic soybean meal prices may rise. The medium - to - long - term outlook is cautiously bullish [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US soybean prices were strong due to a decrease in area and lower ending stocks. Attention should be paid to the China - US soybean trade relationship. The US EPA's policy on small refineries may cause structural adjustments in biofuel demand. Indonesia's policies on palm oil may drive up prices. In the medium - term, overseas palm oil is in the production cycle. In the long - term, the development trend of biodiesel in the US and Indonesia remains. Investors can consider buying soybean and palm oil at low prices [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed oil price rose while the rapeseed meal price fell. The vegetable oil sector was boosted by the overnight overseas market. The demand for rapeseed oil in the biofuel fields of the US and the EU is expected to increase. The domestic rapeseed supply - demand is tight, and futures prices may continue to rise [6]. Corn - The Dalian corn futures contract showed a short - term adjustment trend. The auction of imported corn by CGSGB had a low success rate. The supply in Shandong is relatively sufficient. The weather in domestic corn - producing areas is favorable, and new - season production may increase. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7]. Live Pigs - The government announced a central frozen - pork purchase and storage plan, which led to a higher opening of the futures market. The supply of live pigs in the second half of the year is expected to be high, and the spot price may continue to decline. The policy aims to promote industry capacity reduction, but no inflection point has been seen yet. Attention should be paid to the game between fundamentals and policies [8]. Eggs - Egg futures prices dropped rapidly in the past month due to over - capacity in the industry and weak prices during the peak season. The industry has been in losses for four months. If egg prices remain weak during the peak season, there may be a significant capacity reduction, which could support prices next year. Investors can consider buying at low prices [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both the apple and red date industries is neutral [3][8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For apples, the current inventory is low, and the expected new - season output has little change compared to last year. The short - term price is expected to remain stable, and attention should be paid to the trading situation of new - season early - maturing apples [3] - For red dates, there is a large divergence in the market's expectations for the new - season output. The market is sensitive to weather changes in the production area. Under the condition that the reduction in production cannot be disproven, the futures price may rise in the short - term due to capital sentiment. However, considering the high inventory of old dates, if the reduction in production is less than expected, the price may turn weak [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 8103 yuan/ton, a change of +39 yuan/ton (+0.48%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of semi - commercial late Fuji above 70 in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.50 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Market Analysis - The apple futures price rose yesterday. The increasing volume of early - maturing Gala apples impacted the sales of stored apples. The inventory of stored apples is low, which supports the price. The quality of early - maturing apples is poor, and the sales of both early - maturing and stored apples were average last week. The profit of merchants has declined. This week, the supply of early - maturing varieties may squeeze the sales of stored apples, and the price of Gala apples in some areas may decline [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The short - term price is expected to remain stable, and attention should be paid to the trading situation of new - season early - maturing apples [3] Red Date Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 11470 yuan/ton, a change of - 60 yuan/ton (-0.52%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [4] Market Analysis - The red date futures price fell yesterday. The main production areas are in the fruit - expanding period. The first - crop fruit setting was average, while the second and third - crop were better. The futures price is sensitive to weather changes in the production area. There is a large divergence in the market's expectations for the new - season output. The spot price is strong, and the trading atmosphere has improved [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The futures price may rise in the short - term due to capital sentiment when the reduction in production cannot be disproven. However, considering the high inventory of old dates, if the reduction in production is less than expected, the price may turn weak [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean import cost is on a stable and slightly rising trend, but the upward momentum is questionable due to the global surplus of protein raw materials. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal supply surplus, with potential de - stocking in September. Suggest buying at low - cost intervals and paying attention to profit margins, supply pressure, and Sino - US tariff developments [2][4]. - The fundamentals support the upward trend of the oil price center. Palm oil prices are expected to be strong, with a potential increase in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy. Currently, it is expected to fluctuate upward [7][9]. - The international sugar price is unlikely to rebound significantly, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline due to increasing imports and high spot import profits [11][12]. - Short - term cotton prices may continue to oscillate at a high level. Although the USDA report is positive and Sino - US tariff policies are favorable, the downstream consumption is average and the destocking speed has slowed down [14][15]. - Egg prices may fluctuate in the short term, and in the medium term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the rebound as the supply is large and the price performance in the peak season is weak [17][18]. - The pig price may oscillate in a range. In the short term, consider buying at low prices, in the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure, and for far - month contracts, use the reverse spread strategy [20][21]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean/Meal - **Important Information**: On Thursday night, US soybeans closed higher. The third - day result of the PROFARMER tour showed an increasing yield per unit. The US Soybean Association called for an agreement between Trump and China. The weekly sales report showed that the new US soybean sales exceeded expectations. The Brazilian premium slightly decreased, and the soybean import cost was stable. There were rumors of domestic soybean meal reserves release, causing the futures price to fall. The domestic soybean meal spot basis was stable, with general trading and good提货. The downstream inventory days decreased slightly to 8.35 days. Last week, 2.339 million tons of soybeans were crushed, and this week, 2.4043 million tons are expected to be crushed. The US soybean - producing areas are expected to have less rainfall in the next two weeks. The USDA significantly reduced the planting area, and the US soybean production decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The soybean import cost is rising slightly and stably. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal supply surplus, and it is expected to start de - stocking in September. It is recommended to buy at low - cost intervals and pay attention to profit margins, supply pressure, and Sino - US tariff developments [4]. Oil - **Important Information**: From August 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 23.67% compared to the same period last month. The first 15 - day exports are expected to increase by 16.5% - 21.3%, and the first 20 - day exports are expected to increase by 13.61% - 17.5%. From August 1 - 15, the palm oil yield per unit decreased by 1.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.51%, and the production increased by 0.88%. The first 20 - day production is expected to increase by 0.3%. India purchased rapeseed oil for the first time in five years. As of the end of June, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 13% month - on - month to 2.53 million tons, with exports of 3.61 million tons and production of 5.29 million tons in June [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The US biodiesel policy draft, the limited production potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, the low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, and the expected Indonesian B50 policy support the oil price center. If the demand countries maintain normal imports and the palm oil production is at a medium level, the origin inventory may remain stable, supporting the origin price. There is an expected increase in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy. Currently, it is expected to fluctuate upward [9]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rose. The closing price of the January contract was 5,688 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 0.21%. The spot prices of sugar groups in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing plants increased slightly. The SCA Brasil estimated that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in this season will be 590.4 million tons, a decrease of about 5% compared to the 2024/25 season, and the sugar content per ton will decrease by 5% [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Internationally, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil has increased significantly since July, and the new season in the Northern Hemisphere's major producing countries such as India is expected to have increased production. Domestically, imports will increase in the next two months, and the spot import profit outside the quota is at a five - year high. The Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to oscillate. The closing price of the January contract was 14,030 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 0.18%. The spot price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton decreased. As of August 17, 2025, the US cotton good - to - excellent rate was 55%, up two percentage points from the previous week and 13 percentage points higher than the same period last year. India suspended the 11% import tariff on cotton until September 30 [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The USDA report was more positive than expected, and the suspension of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs for 90 days is favorable for domestic cotton prices. However, the downstream consumption is average, the开机率 is at a low level, and the cotton destocking speed has slowed down. Short - term cotton prices may continue to oscillate at a high level [15]. Egg - **Important Information**: The national egg price was stable or decreased. The average price in the main producing areas decreased by 0.03 yuan to 3.16 yuan/jin. The egg supply is sufficient, the market demand is average, and today's egg price may be stable or decline [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply of newly - laid eggs is increasing, and the number of culled hens is limited, resulting in a large supply. The egg price performance in the peak season is weaker than expected, and the near - month contracts are particularly weak. In the short term, the futures price may fluctuate, and in the medium term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the rebound [18]. Pig - **Important Information**: The domestic pig price was mixed. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.09 yuan to 13.71 yuan/kg, and that in Sichuan remained unchanged at 13.57 yuan/kg. The downstream demand is weak, the market's bullish sentiment has weakened, and the farmers' slaughter volume may increase, so the pig price may be stable or decline today [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The spot price has temporarily stabilized due to previous pressure release and bottom - support sentiment. The futures price has risen and then fallen. The market is waiting for the supply - demand game at the end of the third quarter. In the short term, consider buying at low prices, in the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure, and for far - month contracts, use the reverse spread strategy [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil futures face downward pressure due to concerns about production growth and a slowdown in export growth in the second half of the month. In the long - term, there is a risk of price decline. In the domestic market, Dalian palm oil futures are expected to seek support at around 9200 yuan [1]. - For soybean oil, the policy on small refiner exemptions in the US may affect its industrial demand. Domestically, the spot price has fallen with the market, but the basis quote is expected to rise due to increased consumption during the Mid - Autumn Festival and the start of the school term [1]. Grains and Meals - For grains and meals, the bottom range has shifted upward, and the overall trend is still upward. It is recommended to take the opportunity to lay out long - term long positions [3]. Corn - Corn is at the stage of new and old crop alternation. The market sentiment is weak due to sufficient imports and the upcoming new crop. In the short - term, the demand is hard to improve significantly, and the market is expected to remain volatile and weak. In the medium - term, the cost of new - season corn is expected to decline, and the supply pressure is obvious [6]. Pigs - The spot price of pigs has stabilized. With the start of school and cooler weather in the Northeast, consumption has increased, and the market sentiment is turning bullish. However, there may be a wave of concentrated slaughtering before the double festivals, and there is more uncertainty in the far - end market. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. Sugar - There is a risk of downward revision of Brazil's sugar production. It is difficult for raw sugar to fall sharply in the short - term. With the increase in the destocking progress in Guangxi, the domestic sugar price is expected to remain volatile, and the downward momentum has weakened [10]. Cotton - Short - term domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range due to tight old - crop inventory and low imports. However, with the upcoming new - crop listing and the expected increase in production, the far - end market is under pressure [11]. Eggs - Egg supply is stable, and the market is moving slowly. The inventory of laying hens is large, and the supply of cold - storage eggs may increase the supply pressure. Egg prices are expected to remain bearish [12]. 3. Summary by Categories Oils and Fats - **Palm Oil**: On August 20, the price of Jiangsu Grade 1 palm oil was 8630 yuan, down 200 yuan or 2.27% from the previous day. The basis of Y2601 decreased by 88 yuan or 31.88%. The inventory of palm oil remained unchanged at 15,310 [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price of Jiangsu Grade 4 soybean oil was 9900 yuan on August 20, down 130 yuan or 1.30% from the previous day. The basis of OI601 decreased by 133 yuan or 100.76% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of Jiangsu Grade 4 rapeseed oil was 10030 yuan on August 20, down 130 yuan or 1.30% from the previous day. The basis of OI601 decreased by 1 yuan [1]. Grains and Meals - **Soybean Meal**: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained unchanged at 3070 yuan. The price of M2601 decreased by 1 yuan or 0.03%. The basis increased by 1 yuan or 1.10%. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans for the October shipment decreased by 33 yuan or 36.7% [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal decreased by 40 yuan or 1.51% to 2610 yuan. The price of RM2601 increased by 23 yuan or 0.88%. The basis decreased by 63 yuan or 136.96% [3]. - **Soybeans**: The price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3950 yuan. The price of the main soybean contract decreased by 10 yuan or 0.25%. The basis increased by 10 yuan or 10.42% [3]. Corn - **Corn**: The price of Corn 2511 remained unchanged at 2170 yuan. The price of Jinzhou Port FOB decreased by 50 yuan or 2.16%. The basis decreased by 50 yuan or 35.71%. The import profit decreased by 20 yuan or 4.26% [6]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of Corn Starch 2511 increased by 9 yuan or 0.36% to 2489 yuan. The basis decreased by 9 yuan or 3.91% [6]. Pigs - **Futures**: The price of the main pig contract decreased by 125 yuan or 0.90% to 13775 yuan. The basis increased by 90 yuan or 25.71% [8]. - **Spot**: The price of pigs in Henan remained unchanged at 13850 yuan, while the price in Guangdong increased by 200 yuan to 15240 yuan [8]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of Sugar 2601 decreased by 15 yuan or 0.26% to 5661 yuan. The price of Sugar 2509 increased by 11 yuan or 1.72% [10]. - **Spot**: The price of Nanning sugar decreased by 10 yuan or 0.17% to 5970 yuan. The import price of Brazilian sugar (in - quota) decreased by 43 yuan or 0.95% [10]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of Cotton 2509 decreased by 20 yuan or 0.14% to 13800 yuan. The price of Cotton 2601 decreased by 45 yuan or 0.32% to 14055 yuan [11]. - **Spot**: The price of Xinjiang 3128B cotton remained unchanged at 15080 yuan. The CC Index: 3128B decreased by 3 yuan or 0.02% to 15240 yuan [11]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the Egg 09 contract decreased by 17 yuan or 0.57% to 2983 yuan. The price of the Egg 10 contract increased by 7 yuan or 0.23% to 3072 yuan [12]. - **Spot**: The price of eggs in the main production areas decreased by 0.01 yuan or 0.41% to 3.30 yuan per catty [12].