Group 1 - The U.S. stock market is expected to rise significantly according to President Trump, indicating a positive outlook for market changes [1] - The U.S. government is considering allowing the UAE to import over 1 million advanced Nvidia chips, which could enhance technological capabilities in the region [2] - A historic tax cut bill is anticipated to pass through Congress, which is expected to act as a catalyst for a significant economic boost in the U.S. [3] Group 2 - President Trump secured a $600 billion investment commitment from Saudi Arabia, marking a substantial agreement in energy, defense, and mining sectors [1] - The U.S. plans to sell nearly $142 billion worth of weapons to Saudi Arabia, highlighting a major defense cooperation agreement [1] - The Trump administration has taken steps to restore normal relations with Syria, including the termination of sanctions, which may impact geopolitical dynamics in the region [2]

Group 1: Trade Relations and Tariff Policies - The US and China acknowledged substantial progress in trade talks, with a return to pre-April 2 tariff statuses and an additional 10% tariff on equal terms[5] - Both parties expressed a desire to avoid economic decoupling, with the US seeking balanced trade and China showing willingness to increase imports from the US[5] - The establishment of a trade communication mechanism aims to reduce misunderstandings and ensure regular exchanges between working groups[5] Group 2: Economic Impact and Market Outlook - The suspension of the tariff war for three months is expected to maintain high export growth, potentially shifting towards mid and high-end industries[6] - The 10% basic tariff will significantly increase the burden on US consumers, with estimated taxable imports rising from $380 billion in Trump's first term to $2.5 trillion in the second term, a 6.6-fold increase[7] - The basic tariff could generate additional revenue of approximately 0.5% of GDP, partially offsetting the current federal deficit rate of 6.7%[7] Group 3: Future Policy Directions - The focus may shift to new tax reduction proposals post-summer, which could be more lenient than the 2017 version, combining tariffs with tax cuts for households and businesses[8] - The likelihood of a US recession within the year has decreased, although inflation may rise due to the basic tariff, potentially prolonging the current interest rate levels by the Federal Reserve[8] - The overall market sentiment has shifted from neutral to cautiously optimistic in the short term, with a stable outlook for domestic capital markets[8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The price of Shanghai lead may rebound slightly in the short - term due to inventory reduction, but the rebound height is expected to be limited. Subsequently, it will decline from high levels due to demand. It is recommended to adopt a "high - short" trading strategy and pay attention to the new impacts brought by tax policy changes [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,970 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 1,977.5 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars. The 06 - 07 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is - 5 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The Shanghai lead position is 69,335 lots, down 3,470 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 1,944 lots, down 181 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 40,961 tons, up 1,995 tons. The SHFE inventory is 49,504 tons, up 2,718 tons; the LME lead inventory is 251,800 tons, down 1,625 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,010 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the lead main contract is - 220 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The LME lead premium (0 - 3) is 5.95 dollars/ton, up 1.26 dollars. The price of lead concentrate 50% - 60% in Jiyuan is 15,929 yuan, down 250 yuan. The price of domestic secondary lead (≥98.5%) is 16,690 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead is - 18,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons. The number of secondary lead production enterprises is 68. The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead is 54.41%, up 18.29 percentage points. The monthly output of secondary lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 77.51%, down 1.68 percentage points. The weekly output of primary lead is 35,300 tons, down 600 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate 60% at major ports is - 20 dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16,400 tons, an increase of 48,800 tons. The global lead ore output is 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons. The lead ore import volume is 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 720 yuan/ton, unchanged. The refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average price of waste batteries in the market is 10,121.43 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries is 41.45 million units, down 425,000 units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 1,690.39 points, up 42.4 points. The monthly automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 454,000 vehicles. The monthly new - energy vehicle production is 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - The US Treasury Secretary will study how to solve non - tariff barriers; Trump signed an executive order to reduce drug prices and threatened car tariffs on non - price - reducing countries; US tariff revenue in April surged 130% year - on - year to 16 billion dollars. The Fed Governor Kugler supports keeping interest rates unchanged and still believes tariffs will have a significant impact. Trump announced a "grand tax - cut bill" proposing a 4 - trillion - dollar tax cut over ten years, raising the debt ceiling by 4 trillion dollars, and not mentioning a tax increase on millionaires [2]

特朗普"宏大减税法案"公布：十年拟减税4万亿 未提及百万富翁征税提议 金十数据5月13日讯，美国众议院筹款委员会在周二预定的小组辩论前公布了税收法案，这标志着共和 党控制的议院正推动本月就该立法进行全院表决。该法案计划在未来十年内减税逾4万亿美元，并削减 至少1.5万亿美元支出。这套被特朗普称为"一项宏大而卓越的法案"的立法方案，是其执政议程的核心 举措。该法案延续了诸多将于今年底到期的特朗普首任期间的减税政策。其中包含了特朗普的一些关键 竞选承诺，但未提及其有关对百万富翁按等级征税的提议。根据该草案文本，2028年前将免除小费与加 班收入的个人所得税。其中最棘手的议题之一，即包括围绕提高州税和地方税抵扣额的争议性僵局，仍 未得到解决。草案拟将夫妻联合申报的州税及地方税抵扣上限从1万美元提高至3万美元，但设置个人年 收入20万美元或联合申报者收入为其两倍的门槛。然而，部分来自高税率地区的议员主张更大幅度的税 收减免。 ...

美债，风险"解除"了吗？ - 关税"压力测试 "20250429 摘要 • 对等关税落地期间，美国股债汇市场出现"三杀"现象，历史上多次发生， 本次受美联储货币政策剧烈调整影响，加剧市场恐慌。该现象通常预示负 面经济展望，但未必直接导致衰退，需关注引发因素。 • 2020-2024 年美国财政赤字率从 4-5%升至超 7%，支出规模显著提高。 市场对特朗普政策不确定性及更高赤字的担忧，加剧了对美债安全性的质 疑，关税落地期间美债抛售增加。 • 4 月 8 日美债抛售潮中，美国国内资金净流出占比超 60%，海外资金占比 约 40%，其中爱尔兰资金流出具代表性，中国台湾、西班牙、日本亦有贡 献。4 月 11 号后，美债市场流出量开始减少，到 4 月 16 号转为净流入。 • 当前基差交易空头规模达历史高点约 1 万亿美元，对冲基金利用价差交易 做多现货、做空期货，通过回购市场加杠杆。美债期货空头主要集中在五 年期和十年期品种，流动性较好。 • 4 月 2 日至 4 月 23 日期间，海外官方投资者持有的美债规模从约 2.93 万 亿扩大至 2.94 万亿，未进行大规模抛售。海外投资者在美国美债市场中 的占比仍然较 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump announced plans to implement a tax reduction bill in the coming weeks and months, while assuring that Medicare and Social Security will not be cut [1] Group 1 - The tax reduction bill is expected to be a significant legislative focus for the administration in the near future [1] - The commitment to not cut Medicare and Social Security indicates a protective stance towards these programs, which may influence public sentiment and voter support [1]

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 陈达飞 赵宇 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 作者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 陈达飞 首席宏观分析师 赵 宇 高级宏观分析师 联系人： 赵 宇 摘要 对等关税冲击后，美元-美债的避险属性备受考验。从资金流量及期货空头头寸看，基差交易及海外抛售可能均非美债下跌的主因。谁在"抛售"美债？未来还 需关注哪些潜在风险？ 一、 热点思考：美债，风险"解除"了吗？ （一） 股债汇"三杀"，这次有何不同？ 70年代以来，美国出现过8次股债汇"三杀"，其中3次出现了衰退。 股债汇"三杀"的宏观场景有：一是美联储政策剧烈调整；二是大宗或地缘冲击；三是经 济、金融重大冲击。期间，美股单日平均下跌4.6个点，10年美债利率平均上涨15BP，美元平均下跌1.3个百分点。 对等关税冲击后，美元、美债的避险属性均未体现。 2020年3月，美国市场出现资金争夺（Dash for Cash），各类资产均被抛售以换取现金，但美债指数短期 下跌后，2月至3月仍上涨15%，避险功能未受质疑；2025年的不同之处在于，美债出现更长时间的下跌。 从资金流量观察，美国债券市场资金流 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference primarily discusses the macroeconomic situation, focusing on the impact of tariffs and the U.S. economy on global markets, particularly in the commodities sector [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Tariff Impact**: The U.S. initiated a significant tariff increase of 34% on various imports, which is expected to have a substantial impact on both the U.S. and global economies. The tariffs are seen as a strategic move by the Trump administration to force negotiations with other countries [2][3][4][5][6][7]. 2. **Economic Projections**: If the tariffs are fully implemented, it could lead to a 1.5% reduction in U.S. economic growth, pushing the economy towards a recession [7][8][9][10]. 3. **Tax Reform**: A proposed tax reform plan of approximately $4.5 trillion over ten years is expected to provide a marginal boost to the economy, potentially offsetting some negative impacts of the tariffs [8][9][10][11]. 4. **Debt Ceiling Concerns**: The U.S. government faces a looming debt ceiling crisis, which could impact the timing and implementation of the proposed tax reforms [9][10][11]. 5. **Global Trade Dynamics**: The tariffs are expected to disrupt global trade, with potential retaliatory measures from affected countries, leading to a decrease in global trade volume by 3-5% [26][27]. 6. **Commodity Market Outlook**: The commodities market is experiencing a split performance, with agricultural products and precious metals performing well, while industrial commodities like steel and energy are under pressure due to reduced demand and increased tariffs [35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58]. 7. **China's Economic Resilience**: Despite external pressures from U.S. tariffs, China's economy is showing resilience with a 4% growth in social consumer goods revenue, indicating a recovery in domestic consumption [23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34]. 8. **Investment Strategies**: The conference suggests that investment strategies should focus on sectors that are likely to benefit from government policies aimed at stimulating the economy, such as infrastructure and technology [28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - **Inflation Concerns**: The tariffs are expected to increase consumer prices significantly, with estimates suggesting an average annual increase of $3,800 for U.S. households [26][27]. - **Labor Market Impacts**: The tariffs may negatively affect employment in manufacturing sectors, necessitating government intervention to stabilize job markets [17][18][19][20][21][22]. - **Monetary Policy Adjustments**: The People's Bank of China may need to adjust its monetary policy in response to the economic pressures from U.S. tariffs, potentially leading to interest rate cuts [31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, highlighting the interconnectedness of tariffs, economic performance, and investment strategies in the current global landscape.

Group 1: Tariff Policy Insights - Trump announced a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariff policies, implementing a 10% baseline tariff instead[1] - The suspension indicates a need for more negotiation time, as no agreements were reached with other economies during the one-week window[2] - The focus of Trump's administration is shifting from tariffs to tax reform and deregulation as the 100-day agenda approaches its end[2] Group 2: Economic Impact Analysis - The U.S. GDP is projected to decline by 5.97% over 3-5 years due to high tariffs, with China, the EU, Canada, and Mexico seeing declines of 2.86%, 1.86%, 0.46%, and 0.21% respectively[6] - U.S. CPI is expected to rise by 3.57% over the same period, while China's CPI may change by 0.38%[12] - U.S. exports are forecasted to drop by 17.40%, with China's exports declining by 12.54% over 3-5 years[16] - U.S. imports are anticipated to decrease by 19.52%, with China's imports down by 8.77%[18] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The S&P 500 index typically adjusts by around 20% during economic slowdowns, with potential government interventions to mitigate risks[3] - If no additional tariffs are imposed, the likelihood of a recovery in U.S. stock markets in Q2 is high, contingent on the performance of major indices[3] - The impact of tariffs on trade, output, and inflation is expected to fluctuate in the short term but will stabilize in the long term[4]