特朗普"宏大减税法案"公布：十年拟减税4万亿 未提及百万富翁征税提议 金十数据5月13日讯，美国众议院筹款委员会在周二预定的小组辩论前公布了税收法案，这标志着共和 党控制的议院正推动本月就该立法进行全院表决。该法案计划在未来十年内减税逾4万亿美元，并削减 至少1.5万亿美元支出。这套被特朗普称为"一项宏大而卓越的法案"的立法方案，是其执政议程的核心 举措。该法案延续了诸多将于今年底到期的特朗普首任期间的减税政策。其中包含了特朗普的一些关键 竞选承诺，但未提及其有关对百万富翁按等级征税的提议。根据该草案文本，2028年前将免除小费与加 班收入的个人所得税。其中最棘手的议题之一，即包括围绕提高州税和地方税抵扣额的争议性僵局，仍 未得到解决。草案拟将夫妻联合申报的州税及地方税抵扣上限从1万美元提高至3万美元，但设置个人年 收入20万美元或联合申报者收入为其两倍的门槛。然而，部分来自高税率地区的议员主张更大幅度的税 收减免。 ...

美债，风险"解除"了吗？ - 关税"压力测试 "20250429 摘要 • 对等关税落地期间，美国股债汇市场出现"三杀"现象，历史上多次发生， 本次受美联储货币政策剧烈调整影响，加剧市场恐慌。该现象通常预示负 面经济展望，但未必直接导致衰退，需关注引发因素。 • 2020-2024 年美国财政赤字率从 4-5%升至超 7%，支出规模显著提高。 市场对特朗普政策不确定性及更高赤字的担忧，加剧了对美债安全性的质 疑，关税落地期间美债抛售增加。 • 4 月 8 日美债抛售潮中，美国国内资金净流出占比超 60%，海外资金占比 约 40%，其中爱尔兰资金流出具代表性，中国台湾、西班牙、日本亦有贡 献。4 月 11 号后，美债市场流出量开始减少，到 4 月 16 号转为净流入。 • 当前基差交易空头规模达历史高点约 1 万亿美元，对冲基金利用价差交易 做多现货、做空期货，通过回购市场加杠杆。美债期货空头主要集中在五 年期和十年期品种，流动性较好。 • 4 月 2 日至 4 月 23 日期间，海外官方投资者持有的美债规模从约 2.93 万 亿扩大至 2.94 万亿，未进行大规模抛售。海外投资者在美国美债市场中 的占比仍然较 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump announced plans to implement a tax reduction bill in the coming weeks and months, while assuring that Medicare and Social Security will not be cut [1] Group 1 - The tax reduction bill is expected to be a significant legislative focus for the administration in the near future [1] - The commitment to not cut Medicare and Social Security indicates a protective stance towards these programs, which may influence public sentiment and voter support [1]

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 陈达飞 赵宇 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 作者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 陈达飞 首席宏观分析师 赵 宇 高级宏观分析师 联系人： 赵 宇 摘要 对等关税冲击后，美元-美债的避险属性备受考验。从资金流量及期货空头头寸看，基差交易及海外抛售可能均非美债下跌的主因。谁在"抛售"美债？未来还 需关注哪些潜在风险？ 一、 热点思考：美债，风险"解除"了吗？ （一） 股债汇"三杀"，这次有何不同？ 70年代以来，美国出现过8次股债汇"三杀"，其中3次出现了衰退。 股债汇"三杀"的宏观场景有：一是美联储政策剧烈调整；二是大宗或地缘冲击；三是经 济、金融重大冲击。期间，美股单日平均下跌4.6个点，10年美债利率平均上涨15BP，美元平均下跌1.3个百分点。 对等关税冲击后，美元、美债的避险属性均未体现。 2020年3月，美国市场出现资金争夺（Dash for Cash），各类资产均被抛售以换取现金，但美债指数短期 下跌后，2月至3月仍上涨15%，避险功能未受质疑；2025年的不同之处在于，美债出现更长时间的下跌。 从资金流量观察，美国债券市场资金流 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference primarily discusses the macroeconomic situation, focusing on the impact of tariffs and the U.S. economy on global markets, particularly in the commodities sector [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Tariff Impact**: The U.S. initiated a significant tariff increase of 34% on various imports, which is expected to have a substantial impact on both the U.S. and global economies. The tariffs are seen as a strategic move by the Trump administration to force negotiations with other countries [2][3][4][5][6][7]. 2. **Economic Projections**: If the tariffs are fully implemented, it could lead to a 1.5% reduction in U.S. economic growth, pushing the economy towards a recession [7][8][9][10]. 3. **Tax Reform**: A proposed tax reform plan of approximately $4.5 trillion over ten years is expected to provide a marginal boost to the economy, potentially offsetting some negative impacts of the tariffs [8][9][10][11]. 4. **Debt Ceiling Concerns**: The U.S. government faces a looming debt ceiling crisis, which could impact the timing and implementation of the proposed tax reforms [9][10][11]. 5. **Global Trade Dynamics**: The tariffs are expected to disrupt global trade, with potential retaliatory measures from affected countries, leading to a decrease in global trade volume by 3-5% [26][27]. 6. **Commodity Market Outlook**: The commodities market is experiencing a split performance, with agricultural products and precious metals performing well, while industrial commodities like steel and energy are under pressure due to reduced demand and increased tariffs [35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58]. 7. **China's Economic Resilience**: Despite external pressures from U.S. tariffs, China's economy is showing resilience with a 4% growth in social consumer goods revenue, indicating a recovery in domestic consumption [23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34]. 8. **Investment Strategies**: The conference suggests that investment strategies should focus on sectors that are likely to benefit from government policies aimed at stimulating the economy, such as infrastructure and technology [28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - **Inflation Concerns**: The tariffs are expected to increase consumer prices significantly, with estimates suggesting an average annual increase of $3,800 for U.S. households [26][27]. - **Labor Market Impacts**: The tariffs may negatively affect employment in manufacturing sectors, necessitating government intervention to stabilize job markets [17][18][19][20][21][22]. - **Monetary Policy Adjustments**: The People's Bank of China may need to adjust its monetary policy in response to the economic pressures from U.S. tariffs, potentially leading to interest rate cuts [31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, highlighting the interconnectedness of tariffs, economic performance, and investment strategies in the current global landscape.

Group 1: Tariff Policy Insights - Trump announced a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariff policies, implementing a 10% baseline tariff instead[1] - The suspension indicates a need for more negotiation time, as no agreements were reached with other economies during the one-week window[2] - The focus of Trump's administration is shifting from tariffs to tax reform and deregulation as the 100-day agenda approaches its end[2] Group 2: Economic Impact Analysis - The U.S. GDP is projected to decline by 5.97% over 3-5 years due to high tariffs, with China, the EU, Canada, and Mexico seeing declines of 2.86%, 1.86%, 0.46%, and 0.21% respectively[6] - U.S. CPI is expected to rise by 3.57% over the same period, while China's CPI may change by 0.38%[12] - U.S. exports are forecasted to drop by 17.40%, with China's exports declining by 12.54% over 3-5 years[16] - U.S. imports are anticipated to decrease by 19.52%, with China's imports down by 8.77%[18] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The S&P 500 index typically adjusts by around 20% during economic slowdowns, with potential government interventions to mitigate risks[3] - If no additional tariffs are imposed, the likelihood of a recovery in U.S. stock markets in Q2 is high, contingent on the performance of major indices[3] - The impact of tariffs on trade, output, and inflation is expected to fluctuate in the short term but will stabilize in the long term[4]