Group 1: Report Core View - This week, the high-sulfur crack fluctuated, with crude oil rising significantly. High-sulfur fuel oil, with a large proportion of Iranian supply, performed well in oil product profits. The 380-month spread fluctuated, at $11.5 in July - August, and the basis strengthened. The domestic and international near - and far - month spreads of FU were differentiated, with the 07 contract falling to around -$5 (it is expected that there will be a large amount of delivery goods), and the 09 contract fluctuating at $9. The 0.5 crack in Singapore declined, the month spread strengthened month - on - month, and the basis strengthened [6]. - This week, on - shore inventories in Singapore continued to accumulate, high - sulfur floating storage inventories accumulated, low - sulfur floating storage inventories fluctuated at a low level, ARA slightly destocked, floating storage inventories fluctuated, on - shore inventories in Fujairah accumulated, and floating storage inventories increased significantly. Saudi Arabia's shipments increased significantly, and Russia's shipments decreased month - on - month. Iran and Iraq account for about 15% - 20% of Singapore's high - sulfur imports, mainly affecting some bunkering and refinery feedstock in the Asia - Pacific region, and cannot participate in physical delivery on the futures market. It is expected that Iran's shipments will decline in the future, mainly due to the impact of US sanctions. If the risk event in the Strait of Hormuz escalates, the impact magnitude will increase [7]. - Recently, high - sulfur fuel oil is still in the peak power - generation season, the near - month spreads of domestic and international FU are suppressed, the valuation is low, and the game continues. In the future, attention should be paid to the shipping situation in the Middle East, and the downward driving force for domestic and international prices has decreased. The production of LU increased month - on - month [7]. Group 2: Fuel Oil Price Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil | Type | 2025/06/10 | 2025/06/11 | 2025/06/12 | 2025/06/13 | 2025/06/16 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 | 407.23 | 409.51 | 417.96 | 441.01 | 448.31 | 7.30 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 | 457.96 | 461.45 | 468.13 | 487.74 | 489.27 | 1.53 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -2.96 | -2.98 | -2.76 | -2.60 | -1.35 | 1.25 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 | 616.60 | 616.64 | 625.97 | 662.68 | 661.89 | -0.79 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -158.64 | -155.19 | -157.84 | -174.94 | -172.62 | 2.32 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 17.90 | 15.03 | 16.61 | 16.61 | 17.44 | 0.83 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 50.73 | 51.94 | 50.17 | 46.73 | 40.96 | -5.77 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil | Type | 2025/06/10 | 2025/06/11 | 2025/06/12 | 2025/06/13 | 2025/06/16 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 420.07 | 415.25 | 429.92 | 459.79 | 470.69 | 10.90 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 426.97 | 422.25 | 437.61 | 467.24 | 477.81 | 10.57 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 486.14 | 488.19 | 499.41 | 525.21 | 526.47 | 1.26 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 81.98 | 81.81 | 83.98 | 87.92 | 89.80 | 1.88 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -0.28 | -0.88 | -0.39 | 0.21 | 2.16 | 1.95 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -120.51 | -117.20 | -122.04 | -125.40 | -138.05 | -12.65 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot | Type | 2025/06/10 | 2025/06/11 | 2025/06/12 | 2025/06/13 | 2025/06/16 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 441.10 | 435.55 | 448.16 | 471.75 | 484.57 | 12.82 | | FOB VLSFO | 496.78 | 499.42 | 511.48 | 534.27 | 536.09 | 1.82 | | 380 Basis | 12.25 | 12.95 | 10.25 | 7.80 | 10.40 | 2.60 | | High - sulfur Domestic - International Spread | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 12.2 | 11.0 | -1.2 | | Low - sulfur Domestic - International Spread | 16.5 | 17.6 | 17.1 | 20.3 | 18.7 | -1.6 | [5] Domestic FU | Type | 2025/06/10 | 2025/06/11 | 2025/06/12 | 2025/06/13 | 2025/06/16 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2780 | 2780 | 2852 | 3048 | 3079 | 31 | | FU 05 | 2717 | 2727 | 2798 | 2986 | 3004 | 18 | | FU 09 | 2924 | 2912 | 2997 | 3205 | 3276 | 71 | | FU 01 - 05 | 63 | 53 | 54 | 62 | 75 | 13 | | FU 05 - 09 | -207 | -185 | -199 | -219 | -272 | -53 | | FU 09 - 01 | 144 | 132 | 145 | 157 | 197 | 40 | [5] Domestic LU | Type | 2025/06/10 | 2025/06/11 | 2025/06/12 | 2025/06/13 | 2025/06/16 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3431 | 3414 | 3496 | 3671 | 3695 | 24 | | LU 05 | 3358 | 3348 | 3461 | 3625 | 3620 | -5 | | LU 09 | 3518 | 3524 | 3609 | 3785 | 3829 | 44 | | LU 01 - 05 | 73 | 66 | 35 | 46 | 75 | 29 | | LU 05 - 09 | -160 | -176 | -148 | -160 | -209 | -49 | | LU 09 - 01 | 87 | 110 | 113 | 114 | 134 | 20 | [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to follow crude oil and fluctuate at a high level [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures: BU2507 closed at 3,659 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 2.95%, and 3,657 yuan/ton in the overnight session with a decrease of 0.05%; BU2508 closed at 3,649 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 2.99%, and 3,639 yuan/ton in the overnight session with a decrease of 0.27%. The trading volume of BU2507 yesterday was 93,031 lots, an increase of 40,364 lots, and the open interest was 53,840 lots, a decrease of 6,572 lots; the trading volume of BU2508 yesterday was 27,945 lots, an increase of 15,303 lots, and the open interest was 27,352 lots, a decrease of 1,705 lots [1] - Spot Market: The wholesale price of asphalt in Shandong was 3,775 yuan/ton yesterday, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the wholesale price in the Yangtze River Delta was 3,670 yuan/ton yesterday, with no change. The refinery operating rate was 34.49% (updated on June 9), an increase of 0.95% compared to the previous period; the refinery inventory rate was 30.29% (updated on June 9), a decrease of 0.54% compared to the previous period [1] - Spread: The basis (Shandong - 07) was 116 yuan/ton yesterday, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the 07 - 08 inter - period spread was 10 yuan/ton yesterday, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the Shandong - South China spread was 250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the East China - South China spread was 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Production: This week (20250610 - 20250616), the domestic weekly asphalt production was 534,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to the previous week, a decrease of 1.8%; an increase of 147,000 tons compared to the same period last year, an increase of 38%. The cumulative production from January to June was 1.3975 million tons, an increase of 74,000 tons compared to the same period last year, an increase of 5.6% [11] - Inventory: As of June 16, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample refineries was 782,000 tons, a decrease of 3.5% compared to June 12. The domestic refinery inventory decreased significantly, mainly in Shandong and East China. As of June 16, 2025, the total inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 1.854 million tons, a decrease of 0.5% compared to June 12. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly, mainly due to the overall recovery of downstream terminal project demand in the northern region [11] Trend Intensity - The asphalt trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [10]

CONTENTS 综述 01 价格&价差 02 供应 03 需求 04 期货纸货 月差结构 现货基差 美国 中东 国内 化工需求 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 国泰君安期货·能源化工 液化石油气周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 期货从业资格号：F03128004 日期：2025年6月15日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述 1 综述 资料来源：隆众资讯，Argus，国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 ◆ 我们的观点：地缘冲突升级，盘面风险加大 ◆ 我们的逻辑：6月7日-13日，地缘政治因素提振国际原油价格，液化气市场周尾走高。本周，AFEI丙烷指数先稳后扬， 周四、周五受地缘政治紧张局势升级影响，价格快速拉升，分别上涨5.25美元/吨和31美元/吨，收于577美元/吨；美国 MB价格走势类似，收于414.85美元/ ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East due to Israel's attack on Iran, leading to a surge in various futures contracts, particularly SC crude oil, which hit the limit up [1] Group 2 - Institutional analysis indicates that the short-term outlook for oil prices is expected to be strong amid the heightened geopolitical situation [1]

格林大华期货有限公司 GELIN DAHUA FUTURES CO.,LTD. EIA原油周度数据报告 交易咨询资格:Z0021310 联系方式:wangchen@greendh.com 研究员:王琛 从业资格:F03104620 数据解读:EIA公布最新一期库存数据显示,裁止至上周,原油库存比去年同期低5.93%;比过去五年同期低8%;汽油 库存比去年同期低1.59%;比过去五年同期低2%:馏份油库存比去年同期低1.74%。比过去五年同期低17%。美国商业石 油库存总量增长616.2万桶。美国流厂加工总量平均每天1722.6万桶。比前一周增加22.8万桶;炼油厂开工率94.3%,比前 一周增长0.9个百分点。原油需求旺季来临,炼厂高开工率带动原油库存持续下降,而汽柴油需求处于今年季节性低点 。据EIA发布的《短期能源展望》,随着油价下跌导致生产商减少钻井活动,该机构预计美国原油产量将在未来18个月 内下降。EIA预计,全球石油库存增加将在预测期内推动原油价格走低。布伦特原油现货价格在5月份连续第四个月下 跌,平均每桶64美元,比4月份下跌4美元/桶。我们预测,到今年年底,布伦特原油价格将跌至平均61美元桶, ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Report's Core View - Crude oil price increases support the prices of three major oils, causing them to fluctuate and strengthen [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8182.00 yuan/ton, a change of +72 yuan or +0.89% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7766.00 yuan/ton, a change of +28.00 yuan or +0.36% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9182.00 yuan/ton, a change of +42.00 yuan or +0.46% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8550.00 yuan/ton, a change of +60.00 yuan or +0.71%, with a spot basis of P09 + 368.00, a change of -12.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 7970.00 yuan/ton, a change of +50.00 yuan/ton or +0.63%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 204.00, a change of +22.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9380.00 yuan/ton, a change of +40.00 yuan or +0.43%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 198.00, a change of -2.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Summary US Soybean Export - As of the week ending June 5, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 547040 tons, compared to the previous week's revised 301459 tons [2] - This crop year to date, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume was 45188245 tons, compared to 40543390 tons in the same period of the previous year [2] - As of the week ending June 5, 2025, the US shipped 0 tons of soybeans to China (Mainland), compared to 64998 tons the previous week [2] Russia Wheat - Russian agricultural consulting firm Sovecon raised its forecast for Russia's 2025 wheat production by 1.8 million tons to 82.8 million tons, and noted severe weather in Rostov [2] International Oilseed Prices - Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) C&F price was 595 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - US Gulf soybeans (July shipment) C&F price was 459 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Brazilian soybeans (July shipment) C&F price was 451 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] Import Soybean Premiums - The import soybean premium for the Gulf of Mexico (July shipment) was 210 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - The import soybean premium for the US West Coast (July shipment) was 183 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - The import soybean premium for Brazilian ports (July shipment) was 172 cents/bushel, up 4 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Trump's energy policies on the oil and gas industry, highlighting the shift in capital expenditure strategies among U.S. shale oil companies and the recent bidding rounds in Iraq that attracted significant international interest, particularly from Chinese firms [3][8][43]. Group 1: U.S. Oil and Gas Industry - Trump's administration has focused on traditional energy sources, advocating for reduced regulations on oil and gas extraction, with a target price of $50 per barrel set by advisor Peter Navarro [5][3]. - U.S. shale oil producers have learned from past price crashes and are now prioritizing cash flow and shareholder returns over aggressive capital spending, leading to a reduction in capital expenditures for 2025 and 2026 [8][10]. - Major companies like Chevron have announced significant layoffs, with plans to cut 9,000 jobs by the end of 2026, reflecting a broader trend of cost control in the industry [11]. Group 2: Global Oil Market Dynamics - Brent crude oil prices have fallen by 17% since the beginning of the year, currently around $60 per barrel, influenced by concerns over a potential global economic recession and OPEC+ production challenges [12]. - The Middle East remains a key player in the oil market, with the lowest extraction costs found in countries like Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq, making them attractive for international investment [17][19]. Group 3: Iraq's Oil and Gas Bidding Rounds - Iraq is set to launch its fifth and sixth rounds of oil and gas block tenders, attracting participation from major global oil companies, with a focus on exploration and production contracts [21]. - Chinese companies have emerged as significant players in the bidding process, winning the majority of contracts, including those for high-potential exploration blocks [22][27]. - The article highlights the controversial background of some winning bidders, such as the United Energy Group, which has faced scrutiny for past financial misconduct [28][30].

高硫油市场结构有转弱迹象 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收跌0.03%，报2934元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收涨1.61%，报3535 元/吨。 燃料油日报 | 2025-06-04 原油价格在欧佩克会议后强势反弹，短期基本面较为稳固，市场存在一定支撑，但中期仍面临平衡表转为过剩的 压力。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，高硫燃料油市场结构出现边际转弱的迹象，内外盘月差、裂解价差、现货贴水均有所 走低。随着夏季临近，中东、埃及等地发电端需求逐步提升，为亚洲市场提供一定支撑。但由于高硫油裂解价差 过高，下游炼厂端需求受到压制，叠加欧佩克加速增产的计划，未来发电终端采购回落后市场将开始面临压力。 需要裂解价差下跌来吸引炼厂端的弹性需求。低硫燃料油方面，短期供应压力有限，市场结构持稳运行，但中期 仍面临船燃端需求份额被替代的矛盾。 策略 高硫方面：震荡 低硫方面：震荡 跨品种：关注逢高空FU裂解价差（FU-SC或FU-Brent）的机会 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产不及预期 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告 ...

期货热点追踪 OPEC+增产在即，需求能否支撑起原油价格？ 相关链接 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices are falling, putting pressure on the prices of vegetable oils [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 7,994 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan or 1.36% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan or 0.69%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,405 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan or 0.37% [1] - Spot: In Guangdong, the spot price of palm oil was 8,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or 0.35%, with a spot basis of P09 + 566 yuan, an increase of 80 yuan; in Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan or 0.50%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 240 yuan, an increase of 14 yuan; in Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or 0.31%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 185 yuan, an increase of 5 yuan [1] Recent Market Information Summary - Global soybean: The International Grains Council (IGC) maintained the 2025/26 global soybean production at 428 million tons, increased the trade volume by 2 million tons to 183 million tons, increased the consumption by 2 million tons to 429 million tons, and decreased the ending stocks by 2 million tons to 81 million tons [2] - Malaysian palm oil: In May, the palm oil production in Malaysia increased smoothly. From May 1 - 20, the production in South Malaysia increased by 3.7% month - on - month, with an average increase of 8.6% in the same period of the past 5 years. It is expected that the production in May will increase by about 5% month - on - month. In terms of exports, from May 1 - 20, the export volume increased by 5.25% month - on - month, with an average increase of 9.0% in the same period of the past 5 years. Due to Indonesia's increase in export fees, it is expected that the palm oil exports in Malaysia in May will increase by about 10% month - on - month [2] - International prices: The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (June shipment) increased by 14 dollars/ton to 599 dollars/ton; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) increased by 14 dollars/ton to 589 dollars/ton. The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (June shipment) decreased by 6 dollars/ton to 1,097 dollars/ton; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (August shipment) decreased by 7 dollars/ton to 1,040 dollars/ton. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (June shipment) remained unchanged at 1,050 dollars/ton; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (August shipment) remained unchanged at 1,030 dollars/ton. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (June shipment) increased by 10 dollars/ton to 467 dollars/ton; the C&F price of US West soybeans (June shipment) increased by 10 dollars/ton to 462 dollars/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (June shipment) increased by 9 dollars/ton to 444 dollars/ton. The import soybean premium for the Mexican Gulf (June shipment) remained unchanged at 212 cents/bushel; the import soybean premium for the US West Coast (June shipment) remained unchanged at 185 cents/bushel; the import soybean premium for Brazilian ports (June shipment) increased by 18 cents/bushel to 148 cents/bushel [2]