原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/08/14 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/08/07 | 63.88 | 66.43 | 69.13 | - | 0.53 | -2.55 | 0.55 | 207.75 | 20.83 | 226.68 | 28.78 | | 2025/08/08 | 63.88 | 66.59 | 69.22 | 0.30 | 0.67 | -2.71 | 0.37 | 208.61 | 21.03 | 227.93 | 29.14 | | 2025/08/11 ...

Group 1 - The current market environment shows that gold has benefited from loose monetary policies, but the potential easing of geopolitical tensions is suppressing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][3] - President Trump is scheduled to meet with President Putin to discuss ending the Ukraine war, which has generated optimism in the market regarding a potential de-escalation of conflict [2] - The extension of the tariff truce between China and the U.S. for 90 days has alleviated tensions from global trade disputes, leading investors to reduce their safe-haven allocations in gold and favor riskier assets [2] Group 2 - The Atlanta Fed President stated that the U.S. economy is close to full employment, providing the Federal Reserve with flexibility in policy adjustments [3] - Traders have fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [4] - Recent gold price movements showed a volatile upward trend, with potential for further increases if support levels are maintained [5]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have been driven by concerns over potential tariffs on gold bars imported from Switzerland, which is a major refining center for gold [1][2][3] Group 1: Tariff Impact on Gold Market - A report indicated that the U.S. Customs and Border Protection classified 1-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars under a higher tariff code, raising fears of increased costs for imports from Switzerland [2][3] - The announcement led to a significant spike in gold futures prices, with COMEX gold reaching $3534.10 per ounce on August 8, before a subsequent clarification from the White House caused prices to drop [3][4] - The potential imposition of tariffs could disrupt the global gold supply chain, as Switzerland plays a crucial role in refining and trading gold [2][3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Trends - Following the White House's clarification that gold would not be subject to tariffs, gold prices experienced a sharp decline, with COMEX futures falling over 2% to below $3400 per ounce [4][5] - The gold market has been in a consolidation phase, with London spot gold showing minimal fluctuations from May to July, indicating a period of adjustment [5][6] - Analysts suggest that short-term gold prices may oscillate between $3300 and $3500 per ounce, while medium to long-term outlook remains bullish due to ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank demand [5][6] Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - The resolution of the tariff concerns is expected to stabilize market sentiment, allowing focus to shift back to fundamental factors such as the U.S. dollar's performance and global economic conditions [6] - Analysts believe that gold prices are likely to remain in an upward trend due to persistent demand for safe-haven assets amid policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [6] - Predictions indicate that gold could reach a target price of $3500 per ounce under baseline scenarios, with potential for further increases to $3800 per ounce if geopolitical or economic conditions worsen [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.08%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.43%. The short - term trade agreements are to be reached in batches, and the Russia - Ukraine talks are about to start, leading to a decline in risk - aversion demand. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, with weak employment and moderate inflation, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has rebounded. The report expects precious metals to be slightly bullish in the short term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare Silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly increased [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade agreements in batches and upcoming Russia - Ukraine talks reduce risk - aversion demand; the US faces increasing stagflation risk, weak employment, and moderate inflation, leading to a rebound in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [2]. - **Risk - Aversion Attribute**: US President Trump has signed an executive order to extend the China - US tariff truce for another 90 days, and he also stated that gold will not face tariffs [2]. - **Monetary Attribute**: The US CPI inflation in July was moderate, and investors increased their bets on the Fed's interest - rate cut in September. The US employment growth in July was weaker than expected, and the non - farm payrolls in the previous two months were significantly revised down by 258,000, indicating a sharp deterioration in the labor market. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut probability in September has soared from about 40% before the non - farm data to over 80%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts within the year has increased from 1 to 2 - 3 times. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating downward [2]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index's rebound is under pressure, and the relatively strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [3]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver [6]. - **Capital and Inventory**: CFTC silver net long and iShare Silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions, and the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly increased [6]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Federal Reserve - Related**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance rate (IORB) is 4.40%, the Fed's total assets are 6,691.854 billion US dollars, M2 year - on - year growth is 4.54% [9]. - **Bond and Currency - Related**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.55%, the US dollar index is 98.06, the 3 - month to 10 - year US Treasury yield spread is 0.61, the 2 - year to 10 - year US Treasury yield spread is 0.04, the US - Europe 10 - year bond yield spread is 1.66, and the US - China 10 - year bond yield spread is 3.10 [9][11]. - **Inflation - Related**: CPI year - on - year is 2.70%, CPI month - on - month is 0.20%, core CPI year - on - year is 3.10%, and core CPI month - on - month is 0.20 [11]. - **Economic Growth - Related**: GDP annualized year - on - year growth is 1.90%, GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth is 3.00%, the unemployment rate is 4.20%, and non - farm employment monthly change is 730,000 [11]. - **Other Aspects**: There are also data on the US labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, economic surveys, central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, and various risk and commodity - related indices [9][11][12]. Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations The probabilities of different interest - rate ranges at various Fed meeting dates from September 2025 to December 2026 are provided, showing the market's expectations of the Fed's interest - rate adjustments [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the performance and potential of gold and Bitcoin as alternative assets in the context of increasing geopolitical uncertainty, exploring their effectiveness as stores of value during unstable periods [3][57]. Group 1: Historical Context of Gold - Historically, gold has been a reliable anchor for monetary systems, oscillating between the gold standard and excessive debt, leading to inflation and financial instability [4]. - During the Roman Empire, gold and silver were crucial to the currency system, but inflation arose from the dilution of silver content in coins, eroding public trust [4][5]. - Gold's reliability as a safe haven is highlighted during the 1970s when uncertainty in U.S. fiscal policy led to a loss of confidence in fiat currencies [5][9]. Group 2: Characteristics of Gold - Gold enhances portfolio diversification and provides tail risk hedging, making it an important tool for risk management [9]. - In times of economic recession, gold has shown resilience, particularly during periods of high inflation, as seen in the 1970s stagflation [17]. - Gold typically exhibits a stable upward trend in controlled inflation environments, as evidenced during the global financial crisis and early COVID-19 pandemic [17]. Group 3: Bitcoin as "Digital Gold" - Bitcoin is characterized by high price volatility, often experiencing double-digit fluctuations within short periods, contrasting sharply with gold's stability [10]. - Since the introduction of Bitcoin futures in 2017, its long-term appreciation has significantly outpaced that of gold, with a low average correlation of 0.14 between the two assets [10]. - Bitcoin's decentralized nature and limited supply appeal to investors seeking high-growth potential assets that are less correlated with traditional markets [10][57]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Demand - Gold remains a key player in global financial markets, with central banks significantly influencing demand; investment demand for gold increased by 25% year-on-year, driven by substantial ETF inflows [39][40]. - Bitcoin's demand is bolstered by growing acceptance among individuals, businesses, and some governments, with institutional interest rising as they hold approximately 21% of mined Bitcoin [46]. - The inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs reached $12.5 billion year-to-date, indicating strong institutional interest, while gold ETFs attracted $16.6 billion during the same period, suggesting coexistence of interest in both assets [46]. Group 5: Supply and Liquidity - Bitcoin's supply is strictly capped at 21 million coins, with a halving mechanism that reduces the rate of new coin production, enhancing its scarcity [24]. - In contrast, gold supply is more elastic, as miners can increase production in response to improved economic conditions, leading to a more variable supply over time [29]. Group 6: Correlation and Market Behavior - Historically, gold has shown a negative correlation with risk assets, making it an attractive hedge during market downturns; however, this correlation has recently shifted to a positive trend [33]. - Bitcoin initially had a low correlation with stocks, but this has increased in recent years, particularly during liquidity-driven bull and bear markets [33]. Group 7: Conclusion - While Bitcoin's performance during crises and increasing institutional adoption suggest its evolution towards a digital safe-haven asset, its primary value lies in its disruptive growth potential rather than directly replacing gold's traditional safe-haven function [57]. - Combining gold and Bitcoin in investment portfolios may enhance diversification due to their low correlation with traditional assets, with gold providing stability and Bitcoin offering exposure to technological innovation and high growth potential [57].

周三（8月13日）亚盘早盘，欧元兑美元上涨，目前交投于1.16附近，截止北京时间11:22分，欧元兑美 元报价1.1682，涨幅0.09%，上一交易日欧元兑美元收盘为1.1671。欧洲央行管委ChristodoulosPatsalides 表示，欧元区正在应对当前的地缘政治挑战。"尽管国际形势面临困难，欧元区经济仍表现出韧性。" 这位塞浦路斯央行行长在报纸Politis周日刊出的采访中表示，"不过，整体环境仍然充满着不确定性，主 要原因是贸易紧张局势。"7月30日公布的数据显示，欧元区本地生产总值(GDP)二季度实现了0.1%的微 弱增长。欧盟与美国上周达成了一项贸易协议，Patsalides表示，这一进展"消除了一个不确定因素"。 Patsalides称，"地缘政治风险、地缘战略不稳定以及贸易战"使政策制定者在预测方面"更加保守"，并补 充说"未来如今变得非常不确定"。尽管如此，他与其他官员一样指出，通胀总体仍符合预期，并对其将 在欧洲央行中期目标——2%附近稳定下来表示有信心。在连续八次下调借贷成本之后，欧洲央行上月 维持利率不变。知情人士透露，欧洲央行内部主张再次降息的政策制定者正面临不小阻力。Pats ...

1. Urea Core View The domestic urea futures market has shown a weak and volatile trend recently, mainly driven by the contradiction between supply and demand. The supply is sufficient, while the demand is weak, leading to a poor trading atmosphere in the spot market and pushing down the futures price [7]. Summary by Category - **Futures Prices**: On August 11, the 01 contract closed at 1751, unchanged from August 8; the 05 contract closed at 1790, up 6 or 0.34%; the 09 contract closed at 1722, down 6 or -0.35% [2]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was -39 on August 11, down 6 or -18.18% from August 8; the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts was 68, up 12 or 21.43%; the spread between the 09 and 01 contracts was -29, down 6 or -26.09%; the spread between the UR and MA main contracts was -667, down 12 or -1.83% [3]. - **Main Positions**: The long positions of the top 20 increased by 1403 to 63621 on August 11, a rise of 2.25%; the short positions of the top 20 decreased by 966 to 69896, a decline of -1.36%; the long - short ratio was 0.91, up 0.03 or 3.67%; the unilateral trading volume was 102540, up 22267 or 27.74%; the number of Zhengshang Institute warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3623 [4]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of small - sized anthracite in Jincheng remained at 900 yuan/ton; the price of thermal coal at the pithead in Ejin Horo Banner increased by 10 to 525 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.94%; the price of thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port remained at 680 yuan/ton; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong remained at 2300 yuan/ton; the estimated fixed - bed production cost remained at 1430 yuan/ton; the estimated water - coal slurry production cost increased by 14 to 1155 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.23% [5]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The prices of small - sized urea in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan decreased by 30, 20, and 40 yuan/ton respectively, with declines of -1.70%, -1.21%, and -2.25%; the prices in Northeast China and Guangdong remained unchanged; the FOB price of small - sized urea in China and the FOB price of large - sized urea in the US Gulf remained unchanged [6]. - **Regional Spreads and Basis**: The spreads between Shandong and Henan, Guangdong and Henan, and Guangdong and Shanxi changed, and the basis in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan decreased, while the basis in Guangdong increased [7]. - **Downstream Products**: The price of melamine in Shandong increased by 70 to 5177 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.37%; the prices of 45% S and 45% CL compound fertilizers in Henan remained unchanged; the compound fertilizer - urea ratio increased by 0.04 to 1.57, a rise of 2.30% [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily domestic urea production increased by 0.20 to 19.21 million tons, a rise of 1.05%; the weekly domestic urea production decreased by 2.63 to 132.85 million tons, a decline of -1.94%; the weekly domestic urea plant - side inventory decreased by 2.97 to 88.76 million tons, a decline of -3.24%; the weekly domestic urea port inventory decreased by 1.00 to 48.30 million tons, a decline of -2.03% [7]. 2. Crude Oil Core View Recent oil prices have shown a weak and volatile trend. The main trading logic is the influence of geopolitical risks and marginal supply increments. The upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin is the focus. The market is in a cautious wait - and - see attitude. In the medium - to - long term, the direction of oil prices depends on the negotiation results and inventory changes. There is no strong unilateral trend currently [9]. Summary by Category - **Oil Prices and Spreads**: On August 12, Brent crude oil was at 66.84 dollars/barrel, up 0.21 or 0.32%; WTI was at 64.13 dollars/barrel, up 0.17 or 0.27%; SC was at 494.00 yuan/barrel, up 1.50 or 0.30%. Spreads such as Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 also changed [9]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, ICE Gasoil and their month - to - month spreads changed on August 12 compared with August 11 [9]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of various refined oil products in the US, Europe, and Singapore changed on August 12 compared with August 11 [9]. 3. PVC and Caustic Soda Core View The caustic soda market is expected to be neutral to weak in the later stage, and the PVC market faces great supply - demand pressure, but attention should be paid to the boost of coking coal prices on PVC [19]. Summary by Category - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On August 11, the prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda, Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda, and various PVC futures contracts changed compared with August 8 [14]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The FOB price of caustic soda in East China decreased by 10 to 390 dollars/ton, a decline of -2.5%; the export profit increased by 22.7 to 142.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 19.0%. The overseas quotes of PVC remained unchanged, and the export profit increased by 87.9 to 30.3 yuan/ton, a rise of 152.5% [15][16]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate and the PVC total operating rate increased, while the profits of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC and northwest integrated PVC decreased [17]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of caustic soda downstream industries such as alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing changed slightly; the operating rates of PVC downstream products such as pipes, profiles, and the pre - sales volume of PVC decreased [18][19]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of liquid caustic soda in East China and Shandong increased, the upstream plant - side inventory of PVC decreased, and the total social inventory of PVC increased [19]. 4. Polyolefins Core View The supply of PP and PE has different trends, and the demand is expected to improve in the peak season. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the inventories in the middle and upstream are being depleted. There is no major supply - demand contradiction [23]. Summary by Category - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On August 11, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, PP2509 and their spreads, as well as the spot prices of East China PP drawstrings, North China LLDPE film materials, and their basis changed compared with August 8 [23]. - **PE and PP Standard Prices**: The prices of various PE and PP products in East China changed on August 11 compared with the previous period [23]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates and Inventories**: The operating rates of PE and PP plants and their downstream industries changed, and the inventories of PE and PP enterprises and traders increased [23]. 5. Pure Benzene - Styrene Core View In the short term, pure benzene prices are relatively well - supported, but the rebound space is limited. Styrene's fundamentals are weak, but the downward space is also restricted. Specific trading strategies are provided for both [26]. Summary by Category - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On August 11, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, CFR China pure benzene, and their spreads changed compared with August 8 [26]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of styrene in East China, EB futures contracts, and their spreads, as well as the cash flows and import profits changed [26]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of phenol, caprolactam, aniline, EPS, PS, ABS and other downstream products changed [26]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased, and the operating rates of various industries in the pure benzene and styrene产业链 changed [26]. 6. Methanol Core View The methanol market is affected by factors such as production, inventory, and demand. The 09 contract has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation, while the 01 contract has seasonal and supply - reduction expectations. Specific trading strategies are provided [30]. Summary by Category - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 8, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 decreased, and the MA91 spread, Taicang basis, and regional spreads changed compared with August 7 [30]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3 to 29.3688%, a decline of -9.50%; the methanol port inventory increased by 12 to 92.5 million tons, a rise of 14.48%; the methanol social inventory increased by 8.6 to 121.9%, a rise of 7.61% [30]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream domestic enterprises and some downstream industries changed on August 8 compared with the previous period [30]. 7. Polyester Industry Chain Core View The supply - demand situations of PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip are different, and corresponding trading strategies are provided for each [59]. Summary by Category - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On August 11, the prices of POY, FDY, DTY, polyester chips, polyester bottle - chips, and their cash flows changed compared with August 8 [59]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of CFR China PX, PX futures contracts, and their spreads, as well as the PX basis and processing spreads changed [59]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PTA, PTA futures contracts, and their basis, processing spreads, and operating rates changed [59]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of MEG, MEG futures contracts, and their basis, spreads, and cash flows changed [59]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain such as PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products changed [59].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices continued to decline, with December gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropping nearly 2.2% to $3415.6 per ounce, influenced by easing geopolitical risks and inflation concerns [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - Investors are focusing on the upcoming US-Russia leaders' meeting in Alaska on the 15th, which is expected to ease geopolitical tensions and reduce safe-haven demand [1]. - Last week, gold prices rose nearly 2.7%, reaching a record intraday high of $3534.1 per ounce, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and reports of tariffs on imported gold bars [1]. - The price difference between New York gold futures and London spot gold once reached $100 per ounce, indicating significant market volatility [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Analysts predict that the upcoming July Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US may rebound to 3% year-on-year, raising concerns about inflation impacting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1]. - Following reports of the White House planning to clarify misinformation regarding tariffs on gold and other special commodities, international gold prices retreated, and the futures-spot price gap narrowed to under $60 per ounce [1].

另一方面，分析师预计，美国即将公布的7月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比可能会反弹至3%，投资者担心通胀继续上涨可能会影响美联储的降息决策，限 制金价的上涨空间。 上周，由于投资者看好美联储年内降息前景，以及有报道称，美国对进口金条加征关税，推升市场避险情绪，国际金价累计上涨近2.7%，并一度触及每 盎司3534.1美元的盘中历史新高，纽约黄金期价与伦敦现货黄金价差一度达到每盎司100美元。 来源丨@央视财经、荆楚网 据@央视财经8月11日消息，11日国际金价持续走低，进入欧洲交易时段后，纽约商品交易所12月黄金期价一度报每盎司3415.6美元，较上周五收盘价下 跌近2.2%。 美国消费者新闻与商业频道CNBC的报道称，本周投资者关注将于当地时间15日在美国阿拉斯加举行的美俄领导人会晤，市场预期地缘政治风险偏向缓 和，避险情绪有所缓解。 编辑 | 林煜丽 审读 | 郭建华 二审 | 陆楚一 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the gold market is experiencing a decline due to reduced safe-haven demand as optimism rises from the upcoming U.S.-Russia leaders' meeting [1][3] - The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July is a focal point for the market, with analysts predicting a 0.3% month-over-month increase and a 3.0% year-over-year increase in core CPI [3] - The market is pricing in a 90% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which typically benefits gold prices by lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets [3] Group 2 - Technical analysis suggests that if gold prices close below $3,300, the outlook may turn bearish, while a breakout above $3,400 could pave the way for new historical highs [4] - Current support levels for gold are around $3,365, with additional support at $3,350 and $3,335, while $3,300 is identified as a critical short-term level [4] - The immediate price support for gold is at $3,360 and $3,355, with resistance levels at $3,385 and $3,395, establishing a dividing line of strength at $3,395 [4]