发布时间：2025-05-13 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《海外宏观周报：市场静待贸易靴子 落地》 - 2025.05.12 宏观观点 大方向依然是走弱 l 核心观点 在 5 月 12 日的中美经贸联合声明中，美国将取消和暂停对我国 部分关税，总体将对我国关税税率降至 30%左右。但我们认为此举对 于美国经济的提振有限，回到"解放日"之前的水平和状态可能性较 低。 首先是声明公布后进一步走高的政策不确定性指数。在"解放日" 后，关税大幅抬高，但真正直接作用于美国经济和实体预期的是政策 的不确定性。各项调查等软数据均显示了不确定性对居民和企业部门 消费、投资决策的负面影响。5 月 12 日，尽管中美关系出现了阶段性 缓和，但政策不确定性指数再创新高，这一影响渠道依然在起作用。 其次是特朗普可能出现的"朝令夕改"。这在上一次贸易战中已 经体现的较为充分，且 24%的对等关税是暂停 90 天， ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite a strong rebound of over 15% in European stock markets since early April, Bank of America believes the market may be overly optimistic in pricing the reduction of future policy uncertainties [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - European stock markets have rebounded more than 15% since the low on April 9, recovering from an 18% drop from the historical high in early March [3]. - The rebound is attributed to resilient macro data and expectations of reduced policy uncertainty [1][3]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Data - Overall macro data remains strong, with U.S. private domestic demand growing at an annualized rate of 3% in Q1 and April employment data exceeding expectations [5]. - Global PMI slightly declined from 51.9 in March to 50.7, indicating that while some indicators suggest a slowdown, economic growth momentum has not yet been significantly impacted [5]. Group 3: Policy Uncertainty - Market sentiment has improved as signs indicate that the U.S. government's "pain threshold" has been triggered, leading to a rollback of tariff measures and upcoming trade negotiations with China [6]. - Investors appear to view high uncertainty indicators as lagging, expecting a significant decrease in uncertainty due to the easing of trade tensions [6]. Group 4: Future Risks - There is considerable disappointment potential as macro data may worsen, with analysts predicting a further decline in global PMI by 3 points to 48 in Q3 [7][8]. - Although policy uncertainty is expected to decrease, it may not decline as sharply as the market anticipates, suggesting that the Stoxx 600 index could face about a 15% downside risk, with a target price of 460 points for Q3 [14][11]. Group 5: Sector Analysis - Analysts favor sectors positively correlated with uncertainty reduction, such as food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, personal and household products, and utilities [16]. - Caution is advised for sectors negatively correlated with uncertainty, including building materials, banks, capital goods, and diversified financial services [16].

Group 1 - Jeff Gundlach, known as the "Bond King," predicts that gold prices could rise to $4,000 per ounce, a 20% increase from last week's price of approximately $3,345 [1] - Gold has increased by 25% this year, reflecting a shift in traders' perceptions due to market volatility related to tariffs and geopolitical concerns [1] - The World Gold Council reports that the global market size for physically-backed gold ETFs increased by $11 billion in April, reaching $397 billion [1] Group 2 - Gundlach expresses a challenging outlook for other risk assets, predicting a potential 20% decline in the S&P 500 index, which could drop to 4,500 points [2] - The market is currently in a risk-off state, with other analysts also optimistic about gold due to uncertainties stemming from trade policies [3] - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price target to $3,700 per ounce, citing high policy uncertainty and a potential slowdown in the U.S. economy [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision is highly anticipated, with a 96.9% probability of maintaining current rates, indicating that the market has already priced in the expectation of no change [3] - The real focus lies in Fed Chair Powell's communication style; a hawkish tone could pressure the stock market, while a more dovish signal might boost market confidence [3] - Domestic consumption data from the recent May Day holiday shows 314 million travelers generating 180.27 billion yuan in spending, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.4% and 8.0%, which exceeds expectations and signals strong domestic demand [6] Group 2 - Political dynamics in the U.S. are creating uncertainty, as Pence's criticism of Trump highlights the deep divisions within American politics, which could lead to volatility in capital markets [8] - Concerns are rising in the domestic futures market, with reports suggesting that retail investors' positions are being closely monitored, indicating a level of anxiety among market participants [9] - A three-dimensional observation framework is suggested, focusing on the Fed's decision-making paths, the sustainability of domestic consumption recovery, and the tension between technical market adjustments and favorable policies [11] Group 3 - The interplay between the consumption surge during the May Day holiday and potential policy support may indicate resilience in the Chinese economy, suggesting a possible new breakthrough [13] - Maintaining independent thinking amidst information overload is emphasized as a crucial strategy for market participants to navigate through economic cycles [13]

政策反复无常引发担忧 美多家企业重评业绩指引 由于美国政府关税政策带来的不确定性，多家企业宣布撤回或取消发布业绩指引。美国三大汽车制造商 之一的斯特兰蒂斯汽车公司4月30日表示，由于美国政府关税政策带来的不确定性，它将撤回此前发布 的2025年度业绩指引。美国捷蓝航空公司于4月29日表示，由于美国政府的政策给宏观经济带来不确定 性，公司将撤回年度业绩指引，其首席执行官乔安娜·杰拉蒂表示，公司正在考虑因需求下降而进一步 削减运力，并重新规划飞机退役计划。美国社交软件"阅后即焚"的母公司也于4月29日表示，鉴于未来 宏观经济状况的不确定性，公司取消公布第二季度的业绩指引。据美国华尔街日报报道，在对三百多名 企业高管的调查中，84%的受访者表示，对美国当前的政治和法律环境可能对其业务所产生的影响感到 担忧。大约45%的受访企业高管表示，美国政府近期的政策已经对他们公司的竞争力造成了损害。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，当前，市场剧烈波动，贸易战乱局持续，人们纷纷感到恐慌之际，部分高管却也看 到了曙光。高盛(GS.US)首席执行官大卫·所罗门周二表示，尽管当前并购和首次公开募股(IPO)活动低 迷，但乱象过后，"一切终将平息"。 所罗门在接受采访时指出："如果不确定性进一步加剧，资本活动规模的确会受到影响，但局面终将稳 定下来。人们始终有交易需求，需要筹集资金，也需要投资流动性。当前的部分情况，不过是预期的调 整。" 他还补充道，财政部有关放宽银行监管的表态令他倍感振奋。他说，"我坚信，扭转此前阻碍经济增长 的监管态势存在机遇。释放部分资本，使其在金融体系中循环流动，进而推动信贷活动。因此我乐观认 为，美国金融监管领域将迎来积极变革。" 此外，所罗门认为美债仍是"避风港"。不过，所罗门也警示，当前政策的不确定性已危害经济健康。受 唐纳德·特朗普总统关税政策影响，越来越多企业首席执行官预计经济将陷入衰退，美联储主席杰罗姆· 鲍威尔也表示，这些关税"极有可能"推高通胀。 这位高盛首席执行官指出："目前的政策举措引发的不确定性已达到不健康水平，这对投资和经济增长 不利。在与企业首席执行官和客户的交流中，我发现他 ...

Group 1 - Hedge fund managers are largely bearish on U.S. stocks, significantly increasing short positions despite recent market rebounds [1][5] - The market confidence indicator for hedge funds has recently improved after hitting a decades-low, but overall asset class holdings remain weak [1][4] - The uncertain policy environment, exacerbated by President Trump's tariff measures, has led to a conservative stance among Wall Street professionals [1][5] Group 2 - Hedge funds are reducing long positions in U.S. stocks while increasing bets on European and Japanese equities, contrasting with their previous bullish outlook [5][8] - Many hedge funds see attractive long opportunities in the financial and banking sectors due to improving fundamentals and relatively low valuations [8] - Emerging market investments have performed well, with a reported return of 6.3% in Q1, significantly outperforming the overall hedge fund industry return of 1.7% [8] Group 3 - The U.S. faces three major challenges: federal policies potentially dragging down economic growth, declining interest from foreign investors in U.S. assets, and increasing policy uncertainty [8] - Current stock price expectations do not fully reflect the potential for economic slowdown, despite a recent decline in the dollar [8]

Group 1 - The Trump administration's trade policies have led to significant market volatility and increased living costs for American consumers, with a projected 65% rise in clothing prices and an 87% rise in shoe prices due to tariffs [2][4] - The Federal Reserve's financial stability report indicates that 73% of respondents view global trade risks as a primary concern, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies [2][4] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its global economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.8% and 3% respectively, citing the uncertainty created by U.S. trade policies [4] Group 2 - Trump's approval ratings have dropped to 39%, marking the lowest approval rating for a U.S. president in their first 100 days in the last 80 years, reflecting public dissatisfaction with his policies [3][5] - Protests against the Trump administration's policies, including immigration and tariffs, have occurred in multiple U.S. cities, indicating widespread public discontent [3] - The uncertainty in trade policies has led to a significant increase in consumer inflation expectations, with a one-year inflation expectation of 6.5%, the highest since 1981 [2][3]

【资讯导读】 ·美联储金融稳定调查：关税和政策不确定性升为首要风险 ·鲍威尔再次强调"独立性" ·香港金管局：香港金融体系保持稳健 ·俄罗斯央行维持基准利率在21.00%不变 ·加拿大2月零售销售环比降0.4%，预期降0.4%，前值降0.6%；核心零售销售环比升0.5%，预期降 0.4%，前值从升0.2%修正为升0.1%。 ·英国3月季调后零售销售环比升0.4%，预期降0.4%，前值从升1.0%修正为升0.7%；同比升2.6%，预期 升1.8%，前值升2.2%。 ·英国4月Gfk消费者信心指数-23，预期-22，前值-19。 【全球市场动态】 【市场资讯】 ·4月25日，美联储发布了一年一度的《金融稳定报告》。这是自特朗普重返白宫以来，美联储首次对金 融风险进行半年一次的调查。在报告的《金融稳定突出风险调查》一节中，高达73%的受访者将"全球 贸易风险"列为首要担忧，这一比例达到去年11月报告的两倍多，同时也有半数受访者对"政策不确定 性"表达担忧。在去年报告中位列榜首的"美国政府债务可持续性"只能屈居第三。 ·美联储主席鲍威尔强调，央行必须远离政治干预，以确保能够专注于保持通胀稳定和高就业率。美联 储26日 ...

截至 4 月 27 日收盘，伦敦现货黄金价格报 3316.26 美元 / 盎司，较前一交易日下跌 32.24 美元，跌幅 0.96%，盘中最低触及 3264.99 美元 / 盎司关键支撑位，最高冲至 3370.58 美元 / 盎司，单日波动区间超百美元。纽约黄金期货主力合约收于 3330.2 美 元 / 盎司，跌幅 0.55%，成交量较前一日放大 15%，显示多空分歧加剧。 美元反弹与地缘风险降温压制金价 技术面与资金流向：高位震荡格局延续 1. 关键支撑与阻力位 后市展望：滞胀风险与政策转向的双重逻辑 当前黄金市场处于 "滞胀交易" 与 "政策博弈" 的十字路口。尽管短期受美元反弹与地缘风险降温压制，但全球央行购金、债务 危机与贸易摩擦等长期逻辑仍未改变。投资者需保持灵活，在美元强弱、通胀数据与政策信号中捕捉趋势，将黄金作为资产组 合的 "稳定器" 而非 "冲锋号"。 1. 美元指数技术性反弹 2. 美联储鹰派言论推动美元指数当日上涨 0.3% 至 99.5862，创近一周新高。尽管市场对 6 月降息概率预期仍达 66%，但鲍威 尔在 IMF 会议上强调 "通胀风险优先于短期市场波动"，并警告特朗普政府加征 ...