Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the Federal Reserve is expected to implement two rate cuts this year, each by 0.25%, which will narrow the interest rate differential between the US and emerging markets, leading to a weaker dollar and increased international capital inflow into emerging markets, including Hong Kong [1] - Foreign capital remains underweight in Chinese assets, including Hong Kong stocks, and is expected to increase allocation significantly after the rate cuts [1] - Hong Kong's lack of capital account controls makes it more directly beneficial from the rate cuts compared to mainland China, with Hong Kong stocks typically leading A-shares in response [1] Group 2 - The report recommends five categories of investment opportunities, with a strong emphasis on artificial intelligence (AI) and internet sectors, particularly highlighting Alibaba (9988.HK) for its self-developed AI model capabilities [1] - The liquidity environment is favorable for small to mid-cap growth stocks, with a focus on high-end manufacturing sectors such as humanoid robots and autonomous driving [1] - The report suggests that non-ferrous metals have strong certainty, benefiting from the Fed's rate cut cycle, with gold being a safe-haven asset amid a weakening dollar and global central bank purchases, although short-term adjustments may have already reflected rate cut expectations [1] - The report also emphasizes a bottom-up selection of innovative pharmaceutical stocks, as the rate cuts will improve the financing environment and promote research and development progress [2] - The recovery in US real estate and consumption is expected to drive exports from mainland China, particularly benefiting globally competitive manufacturing sectors such as home appliances and consumer electronics [2]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for both the new economy and the livestock cycle, indicating a favorable economic environment for these sectors [6]. Industry Analysis - The report titled "New Economy and Livestock Cycle, Mid-Year Prosperity is Good" highlights the resilience and growth potential in the agricultural sector, particularly in new consumption trends related to pets and the livestock industry [6]. - The analysis suggests that the current economic conditions are conducive to growth, with a focus on identifying opportunities within the pet consumption market and the post-cycle of livestock farming [3][6]. Research Contributions - The authors, Wang Yanjun and Lin Yidan, have contributed to the understanding of the agricultural sector through their annual report, which aims to uncover the prosperity within the industry [3][6].

你刷到 Figure 上市的消息了吗？这事儿真的太让人激动了！ 9 月 11 号它在纳斯达克敲钟，成了全球首家靠 "现实资产上链" 吃饭的上市公司。 简单说就是把房子、债券这些咱们摸得着的资产，变成代码在区块链上交易。 可别觉得这只是一家公司的小事，它一上市，不光咱们熟悉的工作模式要被革新，连怎么赚钱都冒出新 路子了！ 前言 未来新经济是啥？ 别看未来新经济听着挺复杂，其实简单来讲就容易理解了。 AI和区块链是两大 "基石"，其他所有相关的东西都建立在这俩基础上。 也就是说，未来的新经济，本质是从AI和区块链里 "长" 出来的。 这新经济有两个关键特点。 第一个是 "链上链下深度融合"。 过去25年，咱们的经济模式从全线下，比如逛街买东西、线下签合同办事，慢慢变成2/3线下、1/3线 上。 而未来，很可能会变成2/3还是现实中的 "链下" 模式，1/3变成区块链上的 "链上" 模式。 而且这两种模式会紧紧绑在一起，互相促进、共同发展。 从AI和区块链里发展起来的新经济，会给咱们的生活和工作带来4个关键的大变革。 第二个是 "价值创造主体变了"。 以前咱们赚钱、创造经济价值，主要靠人与人之间的互动，比如销售找客 ...

Core Insights - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that Hong Kong stocks experienced a historical low in revenue growth for the first half of 2025, while overall profitability has improved [1][2] - The differentiation between new and old economies is evident, with sectors like information technology, pharmaceuticals, and discretionary consumption showing strong performance [1][3] Summary by Category Overall Performance - Revenue growth for all Hong Kong companies decreased by 0.9% in H1 2025, while excluding financials, oil, and real estate, revenue grew by 0.5%. The Hang Seng Index constituent companies saw a revenue increase of 2.6%, all reflecting a slowdown compared to the previous year [2] - Net profit for all Hong Kong companies grew by 5.4%, and for those excluding financials, oil, and real estate, net profit increased by 11.7%, both better than the previous year and at historical median levels [2] Profitability - Overall profitability has improved, with gross margins and operating profit margins showing positive trends year-on-year, although operating profit margins decreased quarter-on-quarter [2] - The net profit margin for Hong Kong listed companies has improved both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, with a return on equity (ROE) of 7.0%, which is back to historical average levels [2] Industry Differentiation - The fastest revenue growth was seen in information technology (12.3%), discretionary consumption (8.5%), and financials (5.2%), while the largest declines were in real estate (-20.9%), energy (-9%), and utilities (-4.8%) [3] - The highest net profit growth was recorded in healthcare (202.9%), information technology (60.9%), and materials (52.2%), indicating strong performance in the new economy sectors [3] Inventory Cycle - The overall Hong Kong market is undergoing a destocking cycle, with upstream industries continuing to destock while midstream and downstream sectors have entered a replenishment phase [3] - New economy sectors like information technology, discretionary consumption, and healthcare are in an "active restocking" phase, while traditional sectors like energy and real estate are still in "active destocking" [3] Capital Expenditure - There has been a significant reduction in capital expenditures across most industries during the economic downturn, with real estate, healthcare, and energy showing the least willingness to expand [4] - Only the e-commerce and automotive sectors have seen capital expenditure growth, but this remains at maintenance levels rather than significant increases [4] Industry Fundamentals - High-performing sectors include information technology, non-essential consumer goods distribution and retail (primarily e-commerce), and healthcare, while lower-performing sectors include energy, real estate, and traditional manufacturing [4] - The report suggests that investors should focus on technology growth stocks, particularly in sectors with strong fundamentals and less correlation to the Chinese macroeconomic environment [4]

9月17日，陈茂波出席中信建投证券2025全球投资者大会并发表演讲。 陈茂波表示，当前全球经济正经历一场由数字技术驱动的深度转型。人工智能、生物科技等颠覆性创新，正在重塑产业 格局和价值创造模式。无论是发达经济体还是新兴市场，都正在全力探索如何更深入运用人工智能，提升效能、开发新 产品、开拓新市场。它已成为不同经济体与企业核心竞争力的关键所在。 陈茂波表示，在这一历史性进程中，香港国际金融中心展现出强劲的发展韧性和创新活力。我们不仅积极参与科技变 革，更致力于推动它的高效商业转化和产业群聚。可以说，今天的香港，正通过科技与金融的深度结合，展现出更丰富 的经济内涵、更强大的发展动能。 他从以下三个维度做了进一步阐述： "新经济公司数目占在港上市公司约15%，但它们占港股总市值约28%，贡献了30%的交投额；与五年前相比，交投额 的占比上升了八个百分点"。 今日，香港财政司司长陈茂波在中信建投2025全球投资者大会上演讲称，香港市场结构转型，新经济已成为发展的核心 动力。事实上，科技与金融已成为香港经济增长的两大驱动力，这一点已清晰反映在港股的结构上。 中信建投证券董事长刘成表示，香港金融市场大有可为，中资券商依 ...

Overall Overview - The revenue growth of Hong Kong stocks is at a historical low, with a decline of 0.9% in 1H25, while net profit growth improved by 5.4% [4][11][28] - The overall profitability of Hong Kong stocks has improved, with a net profit margin increase despite a decline in operating profit margin [15][21] - The industry structure shows significant differentiation, with new economy sectors like information technology and healthcare performing well, while traditional sectors like real estate and energy are struggling [4][28] Revenue and Profit Trends - In 1H25, the revenue growth for the entire Hong Kong stock market was -0.9%, while the revenue growth excluding financials, oil, and real estate was 0.5% [7][11] - The net profit growth for all Hong Kong stocks was 5.4%, with a notable 11.7% growth excluding financials, oil, and real estate [11][12] - The performance of the Hang Seng Index component companies showed a revenue growth of 2.6%, indicating better resilience among larger firms [7][11] Industry Performance - The fastest revenue growth was observed in information technology (12.3%), consumer discretionary (8.5%), and financials (5.2%), while the largest declines were in real estate (-20.9%), energy (-9%), and utilities (-4.8%) [4][28] - The healthcare sector saw a remarkable net profit growth of 202.9%, driven by continuous achievements in innovative drug development [4][28] - New economy sectors experienced an 8.4% revenue growth and a 31.7% net profit growth, contrasting with a 2.5% revenue decline and stagnant net profit in traditional sectors [4][28] Inventory Cycle and Capital Expenditure - The overall Hong Kong stock market is undergoing a destocking phase, with upstream industries reducing inventory while downstream sectors are entering a replenishment cycle [4][28] - Capital expenditure has significantly contracted across most industries, with only e-commerce and automotive sectors showing expansion, albeit at a maintenance level [4][28] Financial Metrics - The overall return on equity (ROE) for Hong Kong stocks reached 7.0%, recovering to historical average levels [23][24] - The operating cash flow for the Hang Seng Index improved significantly, while other companies faced cash flow deterioration and reduced capital expenditures [21][22] Conclusion - The report highlights a clear divide between the performance of new and old economy sectors, with the former showing resilience and growth potential, while the latter faces significant challenges [4][28]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 4.2%, the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index increased by 3.9%, the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect New Economy Index went up by 3.3%, the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index climbed by 2.1%, and the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical and Health Comprehensive Index saw a slight increase of 0.1% [1] - According to Galaxy Securities, under the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, foreign capital is showing a structural preference for the Chinese Hong Kong stock market, primarily focusing on technology, finance, and certain consumer and manufacturing sectors, with a particular emphasis on technology stocks, healthcare, and biotechnology [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng New Economy Index consists of 50 stocks from the "new economy" sector within the Hong Kong Stock Connect, primarily including information technology, consumer discretionary, and healthcare industries [2] - The index has a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 25.5 times and has seen a valuation percentile increase of 59.2% since its inception in 2018 [2] - The Hang Seng Technology Index is composed of 30 stocks highly related to technology, with over 90% of its weight in information technology and consumer discretionary sectors, and it has a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 23.4 times, with a valuation percentile increase of 32.3% since its launch in 2020 [2] - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical and Health Comprehensive Index includes 50 liquid and large-cap stocks in the healthcare sector, which accounts for over 90% of the index's weight, with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 31.6 times and a valuation percentile increase of 48.9% since its inception in 2017 [2] - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index consists of 30 leading internet companies, primarily in information technology and consumer discretionary sectors, with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 25.2 times and a valuation percentile increase of 27.4% since its launch in 2021 [2]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance today, with financial and real estate sectors continuing to rise, while pharmaceutical and new consumption sectors experienced widespread declines [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 1.3%, the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index rose by 1.1%, the Hang Seng Stock Connect New Economy Index gained 0.2%, and the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index saw a slight increase of 0.1%. In contrast, the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical and Health Comprehensive Index fell by 1.1% [1] ETF Performance - The E Fund Hang Seng Technology ETF (513010) has recorded net inflows for 10 consecutive trading days, totaling over 2 billion yuan, with the latest scale reaching 17.6 billion yuan, marking a historical high [1] - The Hang Seng New Economy ETF (513320) tracks the Hang Seng Stock Connect New Economy Index, which consists of 50 stocks from the "new economy" sector with the largest market capitalization [2] - The Hang Seng Technology ETF (513010) tracks the Hang Seng Technology Index, composed of 30 stocks highly related to technology themes, with over 90% of the index comprising information technology and consumer discretionary sectors [2] - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical ETF (513200) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical and Health Comprehensive Index, which includes 50 liquid and large-cap stocks in the healthcare sector [2] - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF (513040) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index, consisting of 30 leading internet companies, primarily in information technology and consumer discretionary sectors [2] Valuation Metrics - The rolling P/E ratio for the Hang Seng New Economy Index is 24.8 times, with a valuation percentile of 55.4% since 2018 [2] - The rolling P/E ratio for the Hang Seng Technology Index is 22.5 times, with a valuation percentile of 27.4% since its inception in 2020 [2] - The rolling P/E ratio for the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical Index is 32.3 times, with a valuation percentile of 50.2% since 2017 [2] - The rolling P/E ratio for the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index is 24.4 times, with a valuation percentile of 24.4% since its inception in 2021 [2] - The rolling P/E ratio for the E Fund Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513070) is 21.7 times, with a valuation percentile of 21.9% since its inception in 2020 [3]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the Hong Kong Stock Connect (HKSC) is experiencing a recovery in Return on Equity (ROE), particularly in the technology sector, with a focus on deep value opportunities [4][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the overall revenue growth of HKSC was 1.4% year-on-year, with a decline of 1.3 percentage points compared to H2 2024. The net profit growth for the parent company was 4.2%, down 3.9 percentage points from H2 2024 [4]. - The non-financial segment of HKSC showed a revenue growth of 0.5% year-on-year, with a 1.0 percentage point decline from H2 2024, while net profit growth improved to 7.2%, up 2.2 percentage points from H2 2024 [4]. - The ROE for HKSC (TTM) in H1 2025 was 6.9%, remaining stable compared to H2 2024, while the non-financial ROE (TTM) increased by 0.1 percentage points to 6.4% [4]. Group 2: Sector Comparisons - The report highlights that the fundamentals of HKSC are stronger in the internet and new consumption sectors, while A-shares show better fundamentals in technology hardware and military industries [5]. - In H1 2025, the ROE (TTM) for the consumption sector in HKSC was 11.0%, improving by 1.2 percentage points from H2 2024, with both sales net profit margin and asset turnover increasing [5]. - The technology and pharmaceutical sectors in HKSC had ROEs (TTM) of 8.2% and 6.8%, respectively, both showing improvements driven by enhanced sales net profit margins [5]. Group 3: Growth Trends - The report notes that the overall profit growth of the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index declined in H1 2025, with the Hang Seng Index's net profit growth at -0.8% year-on-year and the Hang Seng Technology Index at 12.1% [5]. - Since the third quarter, the market has significantly revised down its profit forecasts for HKSC, with expected EPS for the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index decreasing by 2% and 9%, respectively, from the end of June to the end of August [5]. - The report emphasizes a continued focus on broad growth directions, particularly in AI and new consumption sectors, which are expected to provide investment value [5]. Group 4: Value Opportunities - The report identifies deep value opportunities in certain sectors, particularly in real estate and domestic consumption companies, where some firms have cash holdings exceeding their market value [5]. - The report suggests that the real estate sector is showing signs of recovery, with improvements in revenue and profit growth, and highlights the potential for stock price recovery in this sector [5]. - Additionally, the report notes improvements in growth characteristics in the consumer sector, particularly in beverages and dairy products, indicating a rotation opportunity in the consumer industry [5].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up by 0.31%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 0.42%. The sportswear sector led the gains, with Li Ning up over 3% and Anta Sports up nearly 2% [1] - The outlook for the Hong Kong stock market is optimistic, with foreign capital potentially returning due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. The technology and financial sectors are particularly favored by foreign investors [2][3] - The overall profitability of the Hong Kong stock market remains strong, with low valuations and a scarcity of assets in sectors like internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals [2] Group 2 - International funds are actively reallocating to Chinese assets, with hedge funds expected to record the highest monthly buying of Chinese stocks since February. Consumer staples and industrial sectors are seeing the most inflows [3] - The Hong Kong stock market's structural advantages remain significant despite short-term liquidity challenges. Investors are encouraged to focus on opportunities arising from overseas demand chains [3] - The earnings outlook for Hong Kong stocks is positive, with a high rate of earnings upgrades. The strategy suggests focusing on innovative pharmaceuticals first, followed by internet and new consumption sectors [3]