Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent performance and future outlook of the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly focusing on the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876), which has seen significant investment despite a recent pullback in prices [1][2] - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF has successfully surpassed the 3000-point mark of the CSI Non-Ferrous Index, reaching a nearly ten-year high, indicating strong market interest and potential for growth [1] - Analysts suggest that the duration of the super cycle for non-ferrous metals will likely extend until 2026, influenced by factors such as the recovery of the US dollar credit, strategic stockpiling progress, and the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies [1] Group 2 - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF and its linked fund (017140) cover a wide range of metals including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, providing a diversified investment option compared to single metal investments [2] - As of December 24, the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF has a total scale of 741 million yuan, making it the largest ETF among three products tracking the same index in the market [2] - Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Bank of America predict that gold prices may challenge the historical high of $5000 per ounce by 2026, with central bank purchases being a key support factor for gold prices [1]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 见证历史了，近期有色金属迎来一轮强势上涨，多品种创下历史新高或阶段性新高。贵金属的黄金、白 银，历史新高；铂金2008年以来新高；工业金属方面，LME期铜历史新高、沪锡22年4月新高；小金属 方面，碳酸锂24年4月以来新高、部分钨金属今年以来涨超200%。 难怪有网友说了，还得是腾讯更懂贵金属，毕竟，尊贵铂金>荣耀黄金>秩序白银>倔强青铜… 从申万一级行业来看，今年以来有色金属涨幅超87%，位居行业之首，超大热门的通信行业1%左右， 年末竞争有点激烈．．． 铜：站上"超级周期"风口。供应端，智利、印尼等核心产区矿山事故频发，叠加中国冶炼企业自律性减 产，导致全球铜精矿出现"硬缺口" 。需求端，全球电网投资、新能源汽车用铜量是燃油车2-3倍，以及 AI数据中心建设，共同构成了长期结构性增长引擎。 铝：国内供应刚性是核心。电解铝产能天花板政策与云南水电复产不及预期，锁定了供应弹性。需求则 受益于汽车轻量化、光伏边框等领域的强劲韧性，社会库存持续处于低位，对价格形成支撑。 黄金：避险与货币属性驱动。美联储降息预期直接打压实际利率，中东、东欧地 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a bold prediction by Wang Baoqing, the chief analyst at Huafu Securities, regarding the future of the non-ferrous metals market, titled "Top Ten Fantasies of Non-Ferrous Metals in 2026" [1][6]. Group 1: Predictions for Non-Ferrous Metals - Gold price is expected to rise by 50% [6]. - Silver price is projected to double and be included in the central bank's reserve system [6]. - Platinum price is anticipated to double, reaching parity with gold [6]. - Lithium price is forecasted to exceed 300,000 yuan/ton, driven by storage demand [6]. - Copper and aluminum prices are expected to increase by 50%, supported by both computing power and storage needs [6]. - Tin price is predicted to surpass 500,000 yuan/ton, with computing demand as a key support factor [6]. - Nickel price is expected to double due to production cuts in Indonesia [6]. - The overall non-ferrous industry is projected to double, continuing to lead both domestic and international capital markets [6]. - Copper is anticipated to become the highest quality asset in the computing power industry chain, with Zijin Mining's market value and scale surpassing BHP, making it the largest mining company globally [6]. - The potassium salt sector is expected to see multiple stocks emerge, driven by storage demand [6]. Group 2: Macro Economic Insights - The analysis references the "super cycle" concept, suggesting that wealth accumulation often relies on the Kondratiev wave cycle [6]. - Historical context is provided, noting that around 2006, China's rapid economic growth led to a four to five-fold increase in copper prices, while the explosion of the electric vehicle industry around 2021 resulted in a roughly 20-fold increase in lithium prices [6]. - A question is raised about whether the non-ferrous metals super cycle driven by storage and computing power will still be in its initial phase in 2025, with the main upward trend potentially occurring in 2026 [3][6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the ongoing bullish trend in the non-ferrous metals sector, with the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) reaching a historical high since its listing, driven by favorable market conditions and expectations for a prolonged super cycle in non-ferrous metals until 2026 [1][2] - The continuation of the non-ferrous metals super cycle is contingent upon three factors: the recovery of US dollar credit, the progress of strategic reserves, and the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies [1] - Major financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Bank of America, predict that gold prices may challenge the historical high of $5000 per ounce by 2026, with central bank purchases being a key support factor for gold prices [1] Group 2 - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) cover a wide range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, providing a diversified investment option compared to single metal investments [2] - As of December 22, the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) has a total scale of 754 million yuan, making it the largest ETF tracking the same index among three similar products in the market [2]

今日（12月23日）有色金属板块继续冲锋！同标的指数规模最大的有色ETF华宝（159876）场内价格盘中涨超0.6%，创ETF上市以来的新高！ 第二，AI革命，数据中心、算力基建离不开有色金属； 第三，战略储备，大国博弈背景下，有色金属等资源就是底气。 有色金属的超级周期能有多长？业内人士指出，取决于三个条件：美元信用恢复情况、战略收储进度、"反内卷"政策效果。从这三个条件来看，2026年有色 金属超级周期大概率还会持续。弱美元周期+政策托底+产业升级，股市机会成本下降，风险溢价改善，面对即将迎来的"春季行情"，或可积极把握。 细分方向来看，黄金龙头方面，山东黄金领涨超4%，西部黄金、中金黄金涨逾1%；小金属龙头方面，云南锗业、中矿资源涨超2%。权重股方面，紫金矿 业、中国铝业飘红。 图：有色龙头ETF标的指数涨幅前10大成份股 | 序号 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 两日图 | 中万一级行业 | 申万二级行业 | 申万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 山东黄金 | 4.18% | | ...

【盘面分析】 12月进入到机构之间绞杀的行情走势，超过90%的交易日出现了超4000股下跌的局面，这就意味着行情已经是踩踏现象。以目前的市场来看，主力资金没有 明显的护盘迹象，但是中小盘股明显走势较弱，黄白线的走势也预示着大盘类个股相对更强，闪崩个股主要出现在高位股以及微盘股之中，这里还要注意年 报披露时间临近，一些ST股和绩差股也要多一个心眼子。这个位置最好是先等待机构资金的抛压结束，以及主力资金的再度进场，不宜盲目操作。 骑牛看熊发现国家出台的一系列政策对有色金属行业产生积极影响。《有色金属行业稳增长工作方案（2025 - 2026年）》，旨在统筹做优增量和盘活存量， 推动行业稳增长和高质量发展，提升产业链供应链韧性和安全水平，为投资提供了政策支撑。下半年仍处于宽松周期内，部分金属基本面趋势持续向好，双 轮共振下，有色金属价格中枢或持续抬升，看好贵金属、工业金属板块持续性以及能源金属板块弹性。展望明年，降息预期不再是有色金属定价的主要逻 辑，而是产业需求增长带来的板块基本面支撑，有望带来持续的投资机会。 三大指数开盘涨跌不一，两市开盘下跌个股超3000只，题材板块方面能源金属、通信设备、贵金属等板块表现较 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly the non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876), which has seen significant inflows and price increases, indicating positive market sentiment towards the sector [1][2] - The non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) attracted 10.13 million yuan in a single day and has accumulated 198 million yuan over the past 20 days, reflecting investor confidence in the future performance of the non-ferrous metal sector [1] - Citic Securities believes that as long as the Federal Reserve remains in a rate-cutting cycle, there will be upward momentum for non-ferrous metal prices, with a potential super cycle for industrial metals like copper and aluminum on the horizon [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) cover a wide range of metals including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, providing a diversified investment option compared to single metal investments [2] - As of December 16, the non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) had a latest scale of 840 million yuan, making it the largest ETF tracking the same index among three similar products in the market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of the Nonferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) indicates positive market sentiment towards the nonferrous metal sector, with significant capital inflows and a notable increase in ETF size [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Nonferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) saw a peak intraday increase of 1.92% and is currently up by 1.81%, reflecting strong investor interest [1]. - The ETF attracted 10.13 million yuan in a single day and has accumulated 198 million yuan over the past 20 days, indicating a bullish outlook on the nonferrous metal sector [1]. - As of December 16, the ETF's latest size is 840 million yuan, making it the largest among three ETFs tracking the same index in the market [1]. Group 2: Component Stocks - Key component stocks include Guocheng Mining, which hit the daily limit, and Shengxin Lithium Energy, which rose over 7%, along with Zhongkuang Resources and Yahua Group, both increasing by over 5% [3]. - The top-performing stocks in the ETF's index include Guocheng Mining (9.98%), Shengxin Lithium Energy (7.11%), and Zhongkuang Resources (5.38%) [3]. Group 3: Market Conditions - Recent U.S. employment data showed a weak job market, with November non-farm payrolls increasing by only 64,000 and the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest in four years [3]. - Analysts suggest that the employment data indicates a "gradual cooling" of the labor market, influencing market expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Citic Securities believes that as long as the Federal Reserve remains in a rate-cutting cycle, there will be upward momentum for nonferrous metal prices [4]. - Dongfang Securities notes that during a rate-cutting cycle, even small supply-demand gaps in physical assets can lead to significant price elasticity, suggesting a potential supercycle for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [4]. - The duration of the nonferrous metal supercycle is expected to depend on the recovery of U.S. dollar credit, strategic stockpiling progress, and the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies, with a high likelihood of continuation until 2026 [4]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - Given the varying degrees of market conditions and drivers among different nonferrous metals, a diversified investment approach through the Nonferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) is recommended to better capture the sector's beta performance [6].

中信建投证券认为，只要美联储仍处于降息通道（未来仍有进一步降息预期），有色金属价格仍有上涨 动力。东方证券指出，美联储降息周期里，供需偏紧的实物资产，即使是较小的供需缺口也有望产生较 大的价格弹性。本轮降息周期下，以铜、铝为代表的工业金属超级周期或已来临。 成份股方面，国城矿业涨停，盛新锂能涨逾7%，中矿资源、雅化集团携手涨超5%，天齐锂业、中孚实 业、永兴材料、兴业银锡等个股大幅跟涨。 消息面上，美国就业市场疲弱，美国11月新增非农就业6.4万人，失业率意外升至4.6%为四年来新高， 10月就业减少10.5万人逊于预期。报告发布后，现货黄金直线拉升，日内涨0.43%。分析师称，就业数 据将显示劳动力市场"逐步降温"。交易员仍押注美联储在2026年会降息两次。 数据显示，截至12月16日，有色龙头ETF（159876）最新规模8.4亿元，在全市场3只跟踪同标的指数的 ETF产品中，是规模最大的ETF。 有色金属的超级周期能有多长？业内人士指出，取决于三个条件：美元信用恢复情况、战略收储进 度、"反内卷"政策效果。从这三个条件来看，2026年有色金属超级周期大概率还会持续。弱美元周期 图：有色龙头 ETF 标的 ...

| 有色龙头ETF | | 159876 | | --- | --- | --- | | (0) | +0.007 +0.77% | | | SZSE CNY 9:57:48 交易中 | / . + | | | 保护巡视 | 华宝中证有色金属ETF | | | 实时申购陵回信息 | 由胸 18 日 | | | 笔数 | 3 | | | 全额 | 0 0 | | | 份高质 | S 1200万 | | 成份股方面，西部矿业、锡业股份、驰宏锌锗、国城矿业、中孚实业携手涨超3%，山金国际、云铝股份、紫金矿业、 中国铝业等个股涨逾2%。 今日（12月12日）有色金属板块领涨两市，揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）场内价格盘中涨超 1.5%，现涨0.77%，截至发稿，获资金实时净申购1200万份，此前已连续4日吸金1.4亿元，反映资金看好有色金属板 块后市表现，积极进场布局！ 第三，战略储备，大国博弈背景下，有色金属等资源就是底气。 有色金属的超级周期能有多长？业内人士指出，取决于三个条件：美元信用恢复情况、战略收储进度、"反内卷"政策 效果。从这三个条件来看，2026年有色金属超级周期大概率还会持续 ...