最近一段时间，全球丙烯腈-丁二烯-苯乙烯共聚物(ABS)市场参与者对下半年市场预期低迷，主要因下 游产业需求疲软。在欧洲和美国，汽车需求不振拖累ABS整体市场，而在亚洲，关税问题则更受关注。 欧洲市场的担忧仍集中于汽车行业，市场情绪悲观。一家ABS生产商向标普全球商品洞察旗下普氏能源 资讯表示："汽车行业表现平平，未见复苏迹象，部分企业预计需求可能进一步下滑。"建筑与家电等其 他下游市场同样面临需求疲软，因为消费信心低迷。地缘政治与关税不确定性持续压制欧洲ABS市场情 绪，现货降价对采购需求提振有限。 汽车与家电领域支撑不足 市场担忧关税政策变化可能再次冲击ABS上游苯乙烯价格。4月中旬至5月初，美国ABS价格随苯乙烯价 格同步下跌近10%。墨西哥湾苯乙烯价格暴跌主因特朗普新关税政策导致亚洲货源转向欧洲和南美，此 后ABS价格未能完全恢复，仍徘徊于年初水平。 业内人士普遍认为2025年下半年美国ABS需求难有显著回升。一家受访生产商表示："若以色列、伊朗 局势缓和且进口关税维持现状，ABS市场将保持平稳，明年或有小幅改善，但幅度有限。" 一些市场参与者预计，如果中东冲突继续造成油价波动，美国ABS价格将在原料 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the weekly average prices of Brent/WTI crude oil futures were $71.6/$68.5 per barrel, up $2.8/$2.7 per barrel from last week. The total US crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory were 8.3/4.3/4.0/0.2 billion barrels, with a week - on - week increase of 7.94/7.7/0.24/0.69 million barrels respectively. US crude oil production was 13.31 million barrels per day, up 40,000 barrels per day week - on - week. The number of active US crude oil rigs was 410 this week, down 5 week - on - week, and the number of active US fracturing fleets was 168, down 1 week - on - week. US refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.91 million barrels per day, down 30,000 barrels per day week - on - week, and the refinery crude oil utilization rate was 95.4%, down 0.1 pct week - on - week. US crude oil imports, exports, and net imports were 6.14/2.7/3.44 million barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of +160,000/ - 1.16 million/+1.32 million barrels per day respectively [2]. - The weekly average prices of US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel were $92/$101/$90 per barrel, with a week - on - week change of +$2.9/ - $2.0/ - $4.1 per barrel respectively. The price spreads with crude oil were $20/$30/$19 per barrel, with a week - on - week change of +$0.6/ - $4.3/ - $6.3 per barrel respectively. US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel inventories were 2.3/1.1/0.4 billion barrels, with a week - on - week change of - 2.72/ + 3.64/ - 2.11 million barrels respectively. US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel production was 10.04/5.21/1.87 million barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of +680,000/+130,000/ - 10,000 barrels per day respectively. US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel consumption was 9.15/3.61/2.09 million barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of +190,000/+260,000/+410,000 barrels per day respectively. US gasoline imports, exports, and net exports were 120,000/890,000/770,000 barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of - 40,000/+170,000/+200,000 barrels per day respectively; US diesel imports, exports, and net exports were 230,000/1.31 million/1.09 million barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of +110,000/ - 120,000/ - 230,000 barrels per day respectively; US jet fuel imports, exports, and net exports were 60,000/150,000/80,000 barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of - 90,000/ - 110,000/ - 30,000 barrels per day respectively [2]. - Recommended companies include CNOOC Limited (600938.SH/0883.HK), PetroChina Company Limited (601857.SH/0857.HK), Sinopec Corporation (600028.SH/0386.HK), CNOOC Oilfield Services Limited (601808.SH), Offshore Oil Engineering Co., Ltd. (600583.SH), and CNOOC Energy Technology & Services Limited (600968.SH). Companies to be noted include Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation (600871.SH/1033.HK), China National Petroleum Corporation Engineering Co., Ltd. (600339.SH), and Sinopec Mechanical Engineering Co., Ltd. (000852.SZ) [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil Weekly Data Briefing - **Upstream Key Company Price Movements**: This section presents the price, price changes in the recent week, month, three - month, one - year periods, and year - to - date price changes of multiple upstream companies such as CNOOC, PetroChina, and Sinopec, along with their market capitalization and valuation data [8]. - **Crude Oil Price**: The weekly average prices of Brent, WTI, Russian Urals, and Russian ESPO crude oils were $71.6, $68.5, $67.2, and $67.8 per barrel respectively, with week - on - week increases of $2.8, $2.7, $2.3, and $2.9 per barrel respectively. The LME copper spot price was $9,165 per ton, down $653.5 week - on - week, and the US dollar index was 100, up 2.6 week - on - week [8]. - **Crude Oil Inventory**: The total US crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory were 8.3/4.3/4.0/0.2 billion barrels, with a week - on - week increase of 7.94/7.7/0.24/0.69 million barrels respectively [2][8]. - **Crude Oil Production**: US crude oil production was 13.31 million barrels per day, up 40,000 barrels per day week - on - week. The number of US crude oil rigs was 410, down 5 week - on - week, and the number of US fracturing fleets was 168, down 1 week - on - week [2][8]. - **Refinery Data**: US refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.91 million barrels per day, down 30,000 barrels per day week - on - week, and the refinery utilization rate was 95.4%, down 0.1 pct week - on - week. The utilization rate of Chinese local refineries was 51.0%, up 0.95 pct, and that of Chinese major refineries was 84.0%, up 0.05 pct [8]. - **Crude Oil Import and Export**: US crude oil imports, exports, and net imports were 6.14/2.7/3.44 million barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of +160,000/ - 1.16 million/+1.32 million barrels per day respectively [2][8]. - **Product Oil Data**: It includes the price, price spread, inventory, production, consumption, and import/export data of product oils in the US, China, Europe, and Singapore [9]. - **Oilfield Services Data**: The weekly average daily rates of offshore jack - up drilling platforms and semi - submersible drilling platforms are provided [9]. 3.2 This Week's Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Market Review - **Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Performance**: No specific performance data is provided in the given content, only the section title is mentioned [11]. - **Performance of Sector Listed Companies**: The price, market capitalization, and price changes in the recent week, month, three - month, one - year periods, and year - to - date price changes of multiple listed companies in the sector are presented, along with their valuation data [22][23]. 3.3 Crude Oil Sector Data Tracking - **Crude Oil Price**: Analyzes the prices and price spreads of Brent, WTI, Urals, ESPO crude oils, as well as the relationship between the US dollar index, copper price, and WTI crude oil price [28][30][40]. - **Crude Oil Inventory**: Discusses the relationship between US commercial crude oil inventory and oil prices, the weekly drawdown rate of US commercial crude oil inventory and the change rate of Brent oil prices, and presents the data of US total crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory [43][44][53]. - **Crude Oil Supply**: Analyzes US crude oil production, the number of crude oil rigs, and the number of fracturing fleets, as well as their relationship with oil prices [57][59][61]. - **Crude Oil Demand**: Presents US refinery crude oil processing volume, refinery utilization rate, and the utilization rates of Chinese local and major refineries [65][69][72]. - **Crude Oil Import and Export**: Analyzes US crude oil imports, exports, net imports, and the import/export and net import data of crude oil and petroleum products [76][81]. 3.4 Product Oil Sector Data Tracking - **Product Oil Price**: Analyzes the relationship between international oil prices and domestic gasoline, diesel retail prices, and presents the prices and price spreads of product oils in different regions such as the US, China, Europe, and Singapore [87][114][120]. - **Product Oil Inventory**: Presents the inventory data of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US and Singapore [127][131][137]. - **Product Oil Supply**: Presents the production data of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US [143][145][146]. - **Product Oil Demand**: Presents the consumption data of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US, as well as the number of US airport passenger screenings [149][150][156]. - **Product Oil Import and Export**: Analyzes the import/export and net export data of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US [161][166][167]. 3.5 Oilfield Services Sector Data Tracking - Presents the average daily rates of jack - up drilling platforms and semi - submersible drilling platforms in the oilfield services industry [175][180].

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are experiencing limited fluctuations as the market digests the potential impact of new tariffs imposed by the U.S. government on global economic growth and oil demand [1][3] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil increased by 4 cents to $71.74 per barrel, a rise of only 0.06%, while WTI crude oil rose by 1 cent to $69.27, showing minimal change [1] - Despite minor daily changes, oil prices recorded significant weekly gains, with Brent crude up 4.9% and WTI up 6.4% [1] - The rise in oil prices is primarily driven by concerns over supply disruptions due to U.S. threats of secondary sanctions on countries purchasing Russian oil, particularly in Asia [1][3] Group 2: Economic Implications of Tariffs - The new round of tariffs, if fully implemented, could increase import prices, thereby suppressing consumer spending and industrial activity, which would exert pressure on oil demand [3] - Initial data indicates that U.S. inflation has already begun to rise due to tariffs affecting the prices of imported goods such as furniture and entertainment [3] - High interest rates, maintained by the Federal Reserve, could limit borrowing and investment, further slowing economic growth and impacting the oil market negatively [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Market sentiment remains cautious, with technical indicators showing a weakening bullish momentum, as indicated by a shortening of the MACD red bars [4] - WTI crude oil is currently in an upward channel but is experiencing reduced momentum, with short-term support at $68.50 and potential resistance at $70.50 [3][4] - The market is expected to remain in a range-bound state in the short term, awaiting fundamental drivers to determine the direction [4] Group 4: Geopolitical and Policy Risks - Global trade uncertainties may provide short-term price support, especially concerning energy geopolitical factors [6] - Overuse of policy measures could exacerbate global market uncertainties and potentially suppress demand growth [6] - The oil market is facing a complex interplay of multiple macro risks and policies, leading to anticipated increased volatility in the future [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows a complex situation with different products facing various supply - demand relationships and price trends. Some products are affected by factors such as new capacity release, downstream demand changes, and oil price fluctuations [2][3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly with insufficient liquidity. Due to downstream device maintenance in Shandong and new capacity release, the market's ability to digest propylene is limited, and prices lack upward momentum [2] - Polyolefin futures' main contracts fluctuate narrowly. For polyethylene, supply pressure increases, inventory accumulates, and although downstream demand warms up, the supply - demand situation lacks substantial improvement. For polypropylene, upstream inventory transfers to the middle, demand is weak, and the trading atmosphere is dull [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - After a sharp rise in night - time oil prices, the pure benzene price recovers. Its weekly supply and demand both decline, and the port inventory accumulates slightly. There is an expected seasonal improvement in the third - quarter mid - to - late stage and pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to operate on the monthly spread [3] - Styrene futures' main contract fluctuates narrowly. The cost support strengthens as oil prices rise, but the supply - demand situation remains weak with high supply and accumulated port inventory, and stable downstream demand [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rise in the morning and fall slightly in the afternoon due to oil price support. PX fundamentals have limited drive, and PTA continues to accumulate inventory with weakening processing margins and basis. Mid - term processing margins have a repair drive but depend on downstream demand recovery [5] - Ethylene glycol's downstream demand is stable, and port inventory fluctuates at a low level. It faces supply changes due to device maintenance and restarts. Short - term oil price strength provides positive support [5] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices follow raw material fluctuations. Short fiber's processing margins decline, and its demand is in the off - season, but there is mid - term positive expectation. Bottle chip has stable inventory under low - start conditions, and over - capacity restricts its processing margin repair [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures fluctuate narrowly. Coastal MTO device operation is not high, and the port accumulates inventory seasonally. Domestic supply is sufficient, and downstream demand changes little. The market is likely to fluctuate within a range [6] - Urea futures' main contract opens high and closes low. Local agricultural demand is ending, downstream demand is weak, and production enterprises accumulate inventory. The market is likely to operate within a range in the short term [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices fall at the end of the session. Supply decreases due to enterprise maintenance, and social inventory accumulates. Domestic demand is weak, but external demand is expected to improve. Long - term prices are unlikely to rise significantly [7] - Caustic soda prices are weak. Chlor - alkali comprehensive profit improves, and device operation increases. Alumina demand provides support, but non - aluminum demand is average. Long - term supply pressure remains, and prices are expected to be under pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash futures prices fall at the end of the session. Inventory decreases, and production increases slightly. The photovoltaic industry continues to cut production, and there is supply - demand pressure after the sentiment fades [8] - Glass prices fall at the end of the session. Spot sales weaken, industry profit recovers slightly, and processing orders are weak. In the long - term, without supply reduction, glass prices are unlikely to rise significantly [8]

消息面上，隔夜国际油价显著走高，WTI原油期货收涨3.75%，报69.21美元/桶。布伦特原油期货收涨 3.53%，报72.51美元/桶。据报道，特朗普称对俄罗斯设定10-12天的新截止日期，若没有达成协议，将 对俄罗斯石油实施二级制裁。东吴期货指，传统消费旺季以及柴油短缺能够支撑市场阶段性抵御供应增 加，短期供应端扰动下市场氛围偏强。不过长期依然偏空，这在旺季结束后将越来越明显。关注 OPEC+9月产量政策和中美关税谈判结果。 智通财经APP获悉，三桶油集体上扬，截至发稿，中石油(00857)涨2.66%，报7.73港元；中石化(00386) 涨2.17%，报4.7港元；中海油(00883)涨2.01%，报19.28港元。 ...

欧佩克+打开石油阀门的惊人举动所带来的财务阵痛，目前看来正在消退，至少现在是这样。 四个月前，当沙特及其合作伙伴同意迅速恢复原油生产时，其后果似乎是灾难性的：油价暴跌至四年低 点，随着国家收入的减少，生产商面临着日益扩大的预算赤字。 然而，主要的不确定性在于，这次油价初步的反弹是否能够持久。 早些时候，IG的市场分析师Tony Sycamore说，美国和欧盟之间的协议支持了全球金融市场和油价。 高盛集团和摩根大通的石油预测师普遍预计，今年晚些时候油价将出现暴跌，因为来自欧佩克+的额外 产量将加剧由疲软的中国需求和充裕的美国供应所造成的过剩。这可能再次大幅削减欧佩克+的收入， 甚至迫使该联盟撤回最近的增产决定。 八个关键的欧佩克+国家将在本周末决定9月份的另一次大幅增产，荷兰国际集团预计，欧佩克+至少将 在9月底之前完全恢复每天220万桶的额外自愿减产，比原计划提前一年。 该联盟赚的钱仍比其拧松龙头之前要少，并且在未来几个月可能面临更深的下滑。但就目前而言，沙特 可以感到安慰的是，推行如此大胆战略所带来的打击并没有更糟。 （文章来源：金十数据） 但随后的几个月带来了一些慰藉，期间欧佩克+宣布了进一步的供应增加。 ...

Group 1 - International oil prices experienced fluctuations due to market expectations of increased Venezuelan oil exports following the easing of U.S. sanctions [1] - As of the close on July 25, the price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $0.87 to $65.16 per barrel, a decrease of 1.32% [1] - The price of Brent crude oil futures for September delivery decreased by $0.74 to $68.44 per barrel, a decline of 1.07% [1] Group 2 - U.S. policy changes may allow Venezuelan oil exports to increase by over 200,000 barrels per day, which is expected to be welcomed by U.S. refining companies [1] - Chevron and other partners of the Venezuelan National Oil Company are permitted to resume limited oil extraction in Venezuela, facilitating payments to contractors and importing essential goods [1] - The delay in oil deliveries from Russian Black Sea terminals and Turkish Mediterranean ports may push Brent crude oil prices back towards the $70 per barrel level [2] Group 3 - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. decreased by 7 to 415, representing a year-on-year decline of 67 rigs [2] - In Canada, the number of active oil rigs increased by 8 to 128, although this reflects a year-on-year decrease of 16 rigs [2]

Group 1 - The new round of fuel price adjustment will take effect from July 15, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 130 yuan and 125 yuan per ton respectively [1] - The average price reduction for 92 octane gasoline is 0.10 yuan per liter, while 95 octane gasoline and 0 diesel will see reductions of 0.11 yuan per liter [4] - Filling a 50-liter tank with 92 octane gasoline will save consumers 5 yuan [5] Group 2 - International oil prices have been fluctuating, with Brent crude futures trading between 67 and 71 dollars per barrel during the adjustment period [5] - Factors influencing oil price fluctuations include concerns over oversupply, geopolitical risks, and changes in international trade [5] - The International Energy Agency forecasts a global oil supply increase of 2.1 million barrels per day, which is three times the growth rate of demand [5][7] Group 3 - The demand for oil remains high due to the summer travel peak in the Northern Hemisphere, while major oil-producing countries have decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August [7] - Uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff negotiations, sanctions against Russia, and the status of ceasefire agreements in the Middle East contribute to the expected volatility in international oil prices [7]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic oil prices are set to experience their first reduction of the year, marking the end of a series of price increases, with gasoline and diesel expected to decrease by approximately 0.10 to 0.12 yuan per liter [1][2][4] Group 1: Price Adjustment Details - The new pricing window opens on July 15, with a projected reduction of around 130 yuan per ton, translating to savings of about 5 to 6 yuan for a full 50-liter tank [1] - The reduction is attributed to a decline in international crude oil prices and rising expectations of a global economic slowdown, with the current crude oil change rate at -3.31% [1][4] - In some regions, the price of 95-octane gasoline may return to the "7 yuan era," alleviating the situation where prices exceeded 8 yuan per liter [2][4] Group 2: Market Sensitivity and Future Outlook - The volatility in international oil prices has led to fluctuating expectations for price adjustments, with recent increases causing the anticipated reduction to drop from 145 yuan per ton to around 120 yuan per ton [1] - Factors such as geopolitical conflicts, OPEC production cuts, the recovery of U.S. shale oil supply, and summer driving demand will continue to influence international oil prices [1][4] - Consumers and businesses are advised to monitor oil price changes closely and adjust their fuel strategies accordingly to manage costs effectively [4]

Investment Rating - The oil and gas industry is rated as "Outperform" [6] Core Views - The report highlights significant fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and OPEC+'s decision to accelerate production in August by 548,000 barrels per day [1][16] - Brent crude oil is expected to stabilize between $65 and $75 per barrel in 2025, while WTI crude oil is projected to be in the range of $60 to $70 per barrel [2][19] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - In June 2025, the average price of Brent crude futures was $69.9 per barrel, an increase of $5.9 per barrel month-on-month, while WTI averaged $67.6 per barrel, up $6.3 per barrel [1][14] - The highest prices reached were $79 for Brent and $78 for WTI during mid-June due to geopolitical events and declining U.S. oil inventories [1][14] Supply Side Analysis - OPEC+ announced an acceleration of production in August by 548,000 barrels per day, with plans to complete this increase by September 2025 [16][20] - The report notes that OPEC+ has extended its voluntary production cuts until March 2026, with a gradual restoration of production starting in April 2025 [20][21] Demand Side Analysis - Major energy agencies forecast an increase in global oil demand of 720,000 to 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, and 740,000 to 1.28 million barrels per day in 2026 [2][17] - The expected demand for 2025 is projected at 105 million barrels per day according to OPEC, IEA, and EIA [2][17] Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), Satellite Chemical, CNOOC Development, and Guanghui Energy, all rated as "Outperform" [3][5]