金融研究 2025年12月10日 星期三 交易策略：中长期，我们维持做多经济的判断，当下以股指做多头替代有一定超额，推荐逢低配置各 品种远期合约。 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：12 月 9 日，A 股四大股指涨跌不一，其中上证指数下跌 0.37%，报收 3909.52 点；深成 指下跌 0.39%，报收 13277.36 点；创业板指上涨 0.61%，报收 3209.6 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.27%， 报收 1347.11 点。市场成交 19,177 亿元，较前日减少 1,339 亿元。行业板块方面，综合(+3.45%)， 通信(+2.23%)，电子(+0.78%)涨幅居前；有色金属(-3.03%)，钢铁(-2.47%)，房地产(-2.1%)跌幅居 前。从市场强弱看，IF>IM>IH>IC，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,305/90/4,057。沪深两市，机构、主力、 大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-157、-203、48、312 亿元，分别变动-216、-151、+86、+281 亿 元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 109.98、82.53、30.22 ...

同时，劳动力市场状况依然略显紧张。过去一年，澳失业率逐步上升，就业增长放缓，劳动力充分利用 指标仍处于较低水平，产能利用率高于长期平均水平，相当一部分企业面临劳动力短缺问题。工资增长 已从峰值回落，但多项工资指标仍保持强劲增长，单位劳动力成本的增幅依然居高不下。 自2022年5月至2023年11月，澳央行共加息425个基点。此后，该行连续多次维持基准利率不变，直到今 年2月宣布降息25个基点，将基准利率下调至4.1%。今年5月，澳央行年内第二次宣布降息，将基准利 率下调至3.85%。8月，澳央行将基准利率下调至3.6%。 澳央行董事会在最新发布的货币政策声明中表示，自2022年达峰以来，澳大利亚的通胀已大幅下降。但 是，近期通胀率有所回升。 澳央行董事会认为，近期通胀率上升的部分原因是暂时性因素，鉴于对月度通胀数据做完整衡量的时间 不长，从中解读出的信号尚存不确定性。尽管如此，数据确实显示出通胀普遍回升的迹象，其中部分通 胀数据上升可能具有持续性，值得密切关注。 澳央行董事会表示，澳大利亚经济活动持续复苏。受消费和投资的双重推动，私人需求增长走强。房地 产市场活动和价格也持续回升。自年初以来，金融环境有所缓和 ...

对股票交易员而言，每年12月通常是所谓"粉饰橱窗"的时期——加仓年内赢家股、清仓落后标的，以锁 定全年业绩。然而今年的情况恰恰相反。 投资者正从科技巨头阵营中抽身撤离——今年正是这些龙头股推动标普500指数全年实现17%的涨幅;与 此同时，他们开始大举买入全年表现低迷的高风险小盘股，以及代表传统经济的交通运输板块个股。 自11月20日美股触及短期低点以来，小盘股标杆罗素2000指数已累计上涨9.4%，并于周四创下历史新 高;微型股指数涨幅达12%;而与经济周期高度相关的卡车运输、航运及航空股板块更是实现11%的涨 幅，且连续多个交易日录得上涨。同期标普500指数的涨幅仅为5.1%。 这一轮调仓换股的背后，是市场对"AI热潮普涨科技股"模式的质疑升温。英伟达(NVDA.US)、微软 (MSFT.US)等科技龙头的涨势均已陷入停滞。与此同时，投资者对美国经济将在2026年上半年加速复苏 的乐观预期，正促使他们弃成长、追价值，纷纷涌入此前估值偏低的价值股领域。 Citadel Securities策略师Scott Rubner上周五也向客户表示，"市场内部的轮动行情仍在持续"，罗素2000 指数已在多个交易日显著跑 ...

新华财经北京12月8日电日本11月服务业景气指数出现回落，结束了此前连续数月的改善势头。 根据最新公布的数据，当月服务业现状指数由10月的49.1降至48.7，为七个月来首次下降，并低于市场 预期的49.5。该数值亦脱离了10月所创下的19个月高位。 尽管市场整体仍预期日本经济将延续复苏路径，但持续的高成本压力正在抑制企业和消费者的乐观情 绪。 （文章来源：新华财经） 数据显示，此次下滑源于多个分项指标的普遍走弱，包括家庭情绪、企业活动以及就业状况均呈现疲软 态势。与此同时，反映未来预期的经济展望指数亦显著放缓，从10月两年多高点53.1回落至50.3，接近 荣枯分界线。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, alumina prices are expected to decline with reduced volatility due to a more relaxed ore supply and a slightly oversupplied production capacity [1][29][92] - The growth rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production will slow down significantly as the operating capacity approaches the ceiling, and imports are expected to increase to offset the supply - demand gap. The downstream demand for aluminum is undergoing a structural transformation [2][45][92] - The price of aluminum alloy will still be pegged to the price of aluminum in 2026, but its seasonal performance will be weaker than before [3][53][93] - The price of aluminum and aluminum alloy is expected to show an upward trend in 2026, driven by factors such as global economic recovery, new - energy transformation, and power construction [3][93] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 2025 Market Review - In 2025, aluminum prices showed a trend of oscillating upward breakthrough, divided into three stages: oscillating upward from January to mid - March, oscillating downward from mid - March to early April, and oscillating upward from early April to November. The price fluctuations were affected by various factors such as policies, tariffs, inventory changes, and macro - events [6][7][8] 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Bauxite - Domestic bauxite production increased slightly in 2025, with a growth rate of 5.2% from January to November. However, production was restricted in some areas due to safety and environmental regulations. Imported bauxite increased significantly, with imports from January to October reaching 171 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. The price of imported bauxite decreased due to increased supply. There were some disturbances in the supply from Guinea, and the political situation in Guinea may affect future supply policies [14][16][18] 3.2.2 Alumina - In 2025, alumina production increased, with output from January to October reaching 78.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.56%. The price first declined, then rebounded, and then fell again. New production capacity was limited in 2025, mainly from Guangxi Huasheng Phase II, Shandong Chuangyuan New Materials, and Hebei Wenfeng. In 2026, new overseas production capacity will be mainly in India, Indonesia, and Vietnam. Alumina production capacity is expected to be slightly oversupplied in 2026, and prices will be determined by cost, showing an oscillating downward trend [22][24][29] 3.2.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - In 2025, the built - in and operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased slightly, with production from January to October reaching 36.8908 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.57%. Many enterprises resumed production due to improved profitability, while some enterprises carried out technical upgrades and maintenance, resulting in production cuts. New production capacity mainly came from Shuangyuan Aluminum, Chalco Qinghai, and others. In 2026, new domestic production capacity will mainly come from Huomeihongjun Zhalv Phase II and Tianshan Aluminum. Overseas production capacity increased in 2025, mainly in Indonesia, Russia, and other countries, and is expected to increase by 1.8 million tons in 2026. The growth rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production will slow down significantly in 2026, and imports are expected to increase [30][35][45] 3.2.4 Aluminum Alloy - Although the import of scrap aluminum was liberalized in 2024, there was no significant increase in 2025 due to factors such as the cancellation of export tax rebates, tariff differences, and tightened trade policies in some countries. The production of recycled aluminum alloy increased steadily, and the listing of aluminum alloy futures promoted production. After the listing of the futures, the production of cast aluminum alloy increased significantly, suppressing the price difference between ADC12 and A00, and the seasonal effect was weakened [48][50][52] 3.3 Demand Side 3.3.1 Real Estate - In 2025, the real estate market continued to decline. In 2026, the real estate market is expected to continue to bottom out, and the demand for aluminum in the real estate sector will continue to decrease. However, urban renewal and affordable rental housing will support part of the aluminum demand [54][56][58] 3.3.2 Infrastructure - In 2025, the issuance of local government special bonds increased, but part of the funds was used for debt repayment, resulting in a slowdown in infrastructure investment growth. The investment in the power grid reached a new high. In 2026, with the increase in special bond quotas and the promotion of power grid construction, the demand for aluminum in infrastructure is expected to increase by 5% [59][61][69] 3.3.3 Automobile - In 2025, the automobile market had good production and sales performance, with new - energy vehicle penetration exceeding 50%. In 2026, although consumption policies are expected to be strengthened and export demand is optimistic, factors such as the reduction of new - energy vehicle purchase tax exemption and the implementation of new battery standards may lead to flat demand for aluminum in the automobile industry [70][72][75] 3.3.4 Photovoltaic - In 2025, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic increased significantly in the first half of the year but decreased sharply after June due to the "430 New Policy" and "531 New Policy". In 2026, the new installed capacity of domestic photovoltaic is expected to decline significantly, and although the overseas new installed capacity is expected to grow at a rate of 25%, the overall demand for aluminum in the photovoltaic industry is expected to decrease [76][79][82] 3.3.5 Aluminum and Aluminum Product Exports - In 2025, the net export of aluminum products decreased, mainly due to the cancellation of export tax rebates and the imposition of tariffs. The export of aluminum products increased. In 2026, due to the continuation of policies and the strengthening of the domestic aluminum price, the net export of aluminum and aluminum products is expected to decline [83][85][86] 3.4 Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance - In the first half of 2025, aluminum inventories decreased significantly, while in the second half, they increased seasonally. In 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum market is expected to have a shortage of 100,000 tons [88][90][91] 3.5 2026 Outlook - Alumina prices are expected to decline with reduced volatility; the growth rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production will slow down, imports will increase, and downstream demand will transform; the price of aluminum alloy will be pegged to aluminum with weaker seasonality; the price of aluminum and aluminum alloy is expected to rise [92][93]

金融研究 2025年12月8日 星期一 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | | 市场表现：12 月 日，A 股四大股指走强，其中上证指数上涨 0.7%，报收 5 3902.81 | | 点；深成指上涨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1.08%，报收 13147.68 点；创业板指上涨 1.36%，报收 3109.3 点；科创 50 指数走平，报收 | | 1326.1 | | | 点。市场成交 17,390 亿元，较前日增加 1,773 亿元。行业板块方面，非银金融(+3.5%)，有色金属 | | | | | (+2.84%)，机械设备(+2.34%)涨幅居前；银行(-0.58%)，公用事业(+0%)，交通运输(+0.07%)跌幅居 | | | | | 前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IH>IF，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,384/93/974。沪深两市，机构、主力、 | | | | 股指期货 | 大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 81、-63、-143、126 亿元，分别变动+150、+82、-149、-83 | | 亿元。 | | | 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基 ...

2025年临近尾声，2026年大类资产配置提上日程。2026年，A股市场将呈现怎样的走势？哪类资产性价比更高？该如何构建组合以把握机会、抵御潜在风 险？ 国泰基金曾辉：国内A股可能明年上半年继续震荡，下半年在经济复苏预期的推动下再上一个台阶。 诺德基金郑源：在香港上市的内地企业股价或将会同时受益于国内经济上行、全球流动性宽松，以及估值优势，值得关注。 平安基金吴心洋：展望2026年，对国内权益、海外权益、黄金等商品、美债均偏乐观，国内债市预计震荡为主。 嘉实基金赵迁：2026年最大的不确定性因素来自海外AI叙事的持续性和通胀背景下的美联储决策。 华商基金孙志远：2026年更倾向于配置中国的权益资产，尤其是与价格相关度高的板块。 为此，中国基金报记者采访了东方红资产管理董事总经理、多元投资部总经理、基金经理邓炯鹏，国泰基金多资产配置部负责人曾辉，诺德基金FOF投资 总监郑源，华商基金资产配置部总经理、华商安远稳进一年持有混合（FOF）基金经理孙志远，嘉实基金FOF基金经理赵迁，平安基金FOF投资部基金经 理吴心洋等六位公募FOF基金经理，共同研判2026年的投资脉络和市场机会。 东方红资产管理邓炯鹏：2026年 ...

Core Viewpoint - Syria plans to construct a new refinery with a processing capacity of 150,000 barrels per day to address the decline in its existing oil production infrastructure and support economic recovery efforts following the civil war [1] Industry Summary - The current main refinery in Syria, Baniyas, has seen its actual processing capacity drop to 95,000 barrels per day due to aging facilities [1] - Syria's total oil production capacity is estimated to be around 130,000 barrels per day [1] - In 2010, Syria's daily oil export volume reached 380,000 barrels, highlighting a significant decline in production capacity due to the civil war [1] Company Summary - The new refinery project is part of the recovery plan promised by the new government following the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024, aiming to revitalize the Syrian economy [1]

2010年，叙利亚石油日出口量曾达38万桶。但在内战期间，叙利亚经济与基础设施尤其是石油生产体系 遭受毁灭性打击。阿萨德政权于2024年12月倒台后，取而代之的新政府承诺将全力推动叙利亚经济复 苏，新建炼油厂正是这一复苏计划的重要组成部分。 (肖化) 中化新网讯 11月29日，叙利亚能源部长向政府旗下的艾哈巴里亚电视台证实，该国计划新建一座日加 工能力15万桶的炼油厂。 该电视台报道称，由于部分设施老化，叙利亚现有主力炼油厂巴尼亚斯炼油厂目前实际日加工量已降至 9.5万桶;该电视台同时估算，叙利亚当前全国石油总产能约为13万桶/日。 ...

（原标题：智利经济增速超预期） 智利《三点钟报》12月1日报道，智利央行公布数据显示，十月份经济活动指数 （Imacec）同比增长2.2%，高于市场预期，前十月累计增长2.4%，当前增速与政府全 年2.5%的预测目标基本一致，经济保持温和复苏。经济增长主要由服务业和商业驱 动，其中商业活动同比大幅增长8.1%，服务业同比增长2.5%。但商品生产同比下降 0.2%，主要受铜开采量减少和电力附加值下降拖累。 ...