Point72资产管理公司：我们将会出现经济放缓，美联储也不会立即采取行动。 ...

美联储理事库格勒：尽管经济放缓，但价格仍有上升的预期，增速不会像之前那样快。 ...

然而，美联储（Fed）官员已对潜在的滞胀表示担忧。行长迈克尔·巴尔警告称，提高关税可能会扰乱供 应链。 从日线图来看，布林带显示，美元兑加元汇率已经从上轨1.4186回落，但仍处于中轨1.3909附近，表明 上行趋势并未完全结束。 MACD指标显示，DIFF线与DEA线目前交叉向上，MACD柱状图由负转正，表明短期动能正在积累， 有利于美元对加元汇率反弹。同时，RSI指标处于48附近的中性区域，并没有出现明显的超买或超卖信 号，这意味着汇价仍有进一步上行的空间。 值得注意的是，CCI指标近期从超卖区域(-130)急速反弹至目前的190.8837水平，已经进入超买区域，这 可能预示短期内存在回调风险。 周一（5月12日）亚市盘中，加拿大劳动力市场数据公布后，美元/加元升至接近1.3920。加拿大失业率 以快于预期的速度加速上升至6.9%。美元兑加元正试图连续第四个交易日保持其位置，美元/加元徘徊 在1.3940左右。该货币对得到支持，因为随着周末在瑞士举行的美中贸易谈判取得进展，美元（USD） 走强。 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特将与中国官员在日内瓦进行的为期两天的会谈描述为富有成效，预计将在 周一上午的简报中公 ...

美联储理事库格勒：短期内经济可能会出现放缓。 ...

美联储理事巴尔：关税将导致经济放缓，从而引发更高的失业率，我对此表示同样担忧。 ...

美国高筑关税壁垒正引发多重经济危机。美联储理事24日警告称，美国总统特朗普引发的贸易战可能很快会导致失业率上升，不排除采取降息 措施应对。与此同时，物价上涨令美国民众债务压力加剧。在历经数周的虚张声势和不断升级局势后，美国总统特朗普似乎有点"扛不住了"， 他承认，对华征收145%的关税是"不可持续的"。而他的一系列动作，在《纽约时报》看来，则被嘲笑为一次又一次的"胆小鬼眨眼"。一些特 朗普政府官员私下表述称，他们承认未能准确预测中方反应，鉴于中国对美国的出口规模巨大，特朗普似乎原以为中国会是首批"请求（关 税）豁免"的国家之一。 特朗普（资料图） 皇家伦敦资产（Royal London Asset Management）高级经济学家梅勒妮·贝克（Melanie Baker）在研究报告中表示，仍预计美联储将于2025年实 施两次降息，但降息时间不会早于下半年。 她指出："我们预计美联储会等到下半年再开启降息。"届时经济将出现更明确的放缓迹象。当前衰退风险已有所上升，全球及美国国内增长前 景已然恶化。不过，鉴于互征关税的暂停以及美国总统特朗普对市场压力作出回应的迹象，贝克目前仍属于"经济放缓"阵营，而非"经济衰 ...

Core Viewpoint - The possibility of a significant interest rate cut of 50 basis points by the Bank of England is being considered due to changing economic conditions since the last meeting in March [1] Economic Context - Global trade disruptions and signs of economic slowdown, particularly the decline in US GDP quarterly data, have shifted focus towards larger rate cuts [1] - The current UK CPI inflation has reached target levels, which supports the argument for a potential rate cut [1] MPC Committee Insights - Analysts expect MPC members Dhingra and Mann to support a 50 basis point cut, indicating a possibility for a larger unexpected cut [1] - However, the majority is predicted to favor a smaller cut of 25 basis points, lowering the benchmark rate to 4.25% [1]

Group 1 - Rick Patel emphasizes the importance of maintaining an active, agile, and diversified investment strategy in the face of market challenges, particularly through defensive allocations to sustain yield buffers, with short-term bonds being an attractive option [1] - The U.S. Treasury yields have shown fluctuations, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising approximately 10 basis points from early April but remaining about 50 basis points lower than the peak in January [1] - The future economic slowdown will largely depend on how U.S. companies respond to tariff pressures, either by compressing profits to absorb costs or passing on price increases [1] Group 2 - The labor market in the U.S. is expected to see job growth primarily in healthcare and government sectors, but there are signs of declining temporary employment in healthcare and challenges in the government sector that may pressure employment data [2] - Given expectations of structural growth and inflation easing, the current federal funds rate of 4.25% appears too high, with the Federal Reserve showing reluctance to cut rates without specific catalysts [2] Group 3 - In a downside risk scenario, if a recession leads to significant unemployment, the Federal Reserve may need to implement more aggressive rate cuts than the market anticipates, potentially lowering the federal funds rate below 2% [3] - The current market prices do not reflect the potential for a severe economic downturn, which could significantly impact small businesses facing high borrowing costs [3]

美联储主席鲍威尔：在实际经济数据中还没有看到经济放缓的迹象。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chief Investment Officer of Citigroup's Wealth Management division, Kate Moore, stated that the company is unable to immediately adapt to policy changes, indicating a pre-existing economic slowdown prior to the implementation of tariffs [1] Group 1 - Citigroup's Wealth Management division is facing challenges in adapting to new policy changes [1] - Economic slowdown was already evident before the introduction of tariffs [1]