Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve's policy shows increasing division among officials, with some advocating for only one rate cut this year while others see no urgent need for cuts due to inflation concerns [2][3] - Market expectations for a September rate cut have decreased from 92% to 74%, with the anticipated total rate cut by year-end reduced from 54 basis points to 49 basis points, primarily due to recent inflation data and cautious statements from officials [3] - Recent U.S. economic data presents a mixed picture, with rising unemployment claims and weak manufacturing activity suggesting labor market risks, which may boost gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4][5] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to support gold prices, as there are no signs of a quick resolution [7] - The U.S. has imposed new sanctions on Iran, affecting multiple entities and vessels, which adds to the geopolitical uncertainty [8] - The limited scope of tariff reductions in the U.S.-EU trade agreement may drive more funds into gold due to global uncertainties [9] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase following a peak of 3500 in April, with a clear triangular convergence pattern forming, indicating potential volatility ahead [11] - Key support and resistance levels for gold are identified, with support at approximately 3315 and resistance at around 3384 [11] - In the four-hour timeframe, the market remains in a downward trend until the previous high of 3409 is breached, with critical levels to watch being 3311 for support and 3352 for resistance [13]

Core Viewpoint - The current gold prices are influenced by various factors including Federal Reserve policy expectations, geopolitical tensions, and the strength of the US dollar [3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 776.08 CNY per gram, down 0.01% [1]. - International gold price is reported at 3380.5 USD per ounce, down 0.03% [2]. Group 2: Influential Factors - Federal Reserve Policy Expectations: There is significant market divergence regarding the likelihood and extent of a potential rate cut in September. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a high probability of a 25 basis point cut, but the unexpected rise in July PPI has cooled rate cut expectations. Investors are focused on Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference, which could either strengthen the dollar and pressure gold if hawkish, or allow for a rebound in gold if dovish [3]. - Geopolitical Situation: Ongoing negotiations between the US and Russia have not reached an agreement, with attention on the Russia-Ukraine talks. Trump's positive signals for ending the conflict may weaken gold's safe-haven demand if peace talks progress, but uncertainty regarding Putin's willingness to agree maintains support for gold [3]. - US Dollar Performance: The dollar's strong performance has negatively impacted gold prices, as a rising dollar index makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, thus suppressing demand [3]. Group 3: Price Outlook - Gold prices are currently in a sensitive range with mixed factors at play. The Federal Reserve's policy remains a key variable; a dovish signal from Powell could lead to a short-term rebound, while an emphasis on inflation may continue to pressure gold. Geopolitical uncertainties persist, with positive developments in negotiations potentially reducing gold's appeal, while adverse developments could boost it. The dollar's performance will continue to influence gold prices. Overall, gold is expected to maintain a range-bound movement in the short term, with critical levels such as the 100-day moving average being closely monitored for potential breakout or breakdown [4].

作为2025年联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的轮值票委，古尔斯比强调，美联储在9月的政策会议前仍 需审慎评估更多数据。"在我看来，9月的会议像是一场实时的会议（live meeting），"他表示，"我们不 能仅凭一份报告就做出判断。我们需要确认通胀是否真正回归下行轨道。" 近期公布的美国7月生产者价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.9%，远超预期，其中服务成本是主要推手。同 时，密歇根大学消费者信心调查显示，短期和长期通胀预期均有所回升，加剧了市场对通胀粘性的担 忧。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京8月22日电芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比（Austan Goolsbee）表示，尽管近期部分通胀 数据呈现缓和迹象，但服务业价格的意外飙升构成"危险信号"，他希望这一现象只是暂时的，而非通胀 反弹的前兆。 "上一份通胀报告显示，服务业通胀确实开始飙升，环比涨幅达到1.1%，这是自2022年3月以来的最大 增幅，"古尔斯比在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会前夕发表讲话称，"虽然目前尚不确定这一上涨是否由关税 或其他外部因素直接推动，但这是一个危险的数据点。我希望这只是一次性的小插曲，而不是趋势的逆 转。" ...

来源：滚动播报 美国国债下跌。美联储哈玛克称不认为美联储政策离中性水平很远，无需采取刺激性政策。 ...

前圣路易斯联储主席布拉德：美联储2026年可根据数据表现采取更多行动。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for one year and 3.5% for five years, reflecting a cautious approach amid calls for market stimulus, influenced by global capital flows and the Federal Reserve's policies [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Not Lowering Interest Rates - The current net interest margin for commercial banks has compressed to a historical low of 1.42%, indicating that banks earn only 1.42 yuan for every 100 yuan loaned, which poses systemic risks if LPR is lowered [3]. - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is a significant constraint, with a 93% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, yet the Fed has maintained its rate at 4.25%-4.5%, leading to a 274 basis point inversion in the 10-year treasury yield between China and the U.S. [5][6]. - Economic fundamentals provide implicit support, with a GDP growth of 5.4% in the first half of the year and a weighted average loan interest rate dropping to a historical low of 3.2%, suggesting that further rate cuts may not be necessary [7]. Group 2: Impact of Global Capital Flows - The inverted interest rate differential of 274 basis points incentivizes foreign capital to withdraw from Chinese bonds, resulting in a net sell-off of 68 billion yuan in July, which increases financing costs for real estate companies [11]. - Currency fluctuations linked to LPR adjustments can indirectly raise mortgage costs for consumers, as a depreciation of the yuan can increase the hidden costs of purchasing property [13]. - The dynamics of LPR stability and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts illustrate the complex interplay of global interest rates, requiring the industry to navigate external pressures while stimulating domestic demand [10].

Group 1 - Market risk aversion has increased, leading to a rebound in gold prices, with the Gold ETF (159937) rising by 0.46% [1][3] - The Gold ETF (159937) has seen a year-to-date increase of 24.81% [1] - The trading volume for the Gold ETF was 94.44 million, with a turnover rate of 0.33% [1][2] Group 2 - The current spot gold price is $3,344.24 per ounce, with a slight decline of 0.12% [2] - The COMEX gold futures price is $3,387 per ounce, down by 0.04% [2] - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes indicate a majority view to maintain the benchmark interest rate, with concerns about inflation and employment risks [5] Group 3 - The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting is expected to be a critical point for potential policy signals from the Federal Reserve, which could impact gold prices significantly [6] - If Fed Chair Powell hints at rate cuts or expanded easing, gold may break previous highs; conversely, cautious language could lead to price declines [6] - The Gold ETF and related funds offer low-cost, diversified investment options, with a long-term value in hedging against economic downturns [7]

黄金周三（8月20日）早盘小幅下探3311附近后开始企稳慢涨，欧美盘延续上涨，到尾盘最高上涨至3350附近，日线收出一根阳线。 一、基本面 1、美联储政策预期与分歧 二、技术面 1、日线级别：黄金本周初（周一至周二）延续下行趋势，价格稳步回落；周三行情迎来转折，金价在低位企稳后强势收阳，单日涨幅直接覆盖周初全部跌 幅，短期下跌动能显著减缓。不过，当前尚未能确认行情是否完成企稳转向，今日需重点跟踪黄金上涨节奏的延续性，若上涨动能衰减，需警惕周三的阳线 仅为"单阳修正"，后续仍有重回调整趋势的可能。 指标层面，周三金价以"逼空慢涨"形态上穿多周期均线，当前各周期均线排列杂乱，尚未形成明确的支撑或压制结构，均线系统的参考价值暂时较低，短期 内建议优先关注行情的震荡整理特征，等待技术形态进一步明朗。 上方阻力：首要关注上周一大跌后，周四反弹形成的高点3374/3375，该位置是短期多空博弈的核心压制位；其次需留意3386/3387附近阻力，此位置源于7 月23日与8月8日高点连线形成的趋势阻力线。 下方支撑：短期支撑先关注周三低点3311附近，该位置目前同时契合5月15日低点（3120）与7月30日低点（3268）连 ...

黄金行情分析： 一、市场背景与焦点 市场聚焦杰克逊霍尔年会（8月21-23日），美联储政策信号为金价关键影响因素。俄乌局势紧张、特朗普关税言论加剧不确定性，推动金价 高位谨慎盘整。美联储9月降息预期为核心，8月15日经济学家调查显示政策解读存分歧。需关注周三FOMC会议纪要及美联储副主席鲍曼讲 话，捕捉政策线索。 二、日内行情走势回顾 技术面看，上方或冲击10日线、20日线交汇的3345-50压力带，但需注意日内持续回弹叠加凌晨美联储会议纪要的不确定性，午夜行情需谨 慎。 三、技术面分析 作者：王召金 四、操作思路 综合来看，短线以回调做多为主、反弹做空为辅：阻力位：短期重点关注3365-3380一线；支撑位：短期重点关注3320-3305一线。 白银行情分析： 一、日线图视角：均线与支撑博弈 银价逐步接近50日移动均线，正处于支撑位修正过程。若跌破该均线所在的37.20美元区域，下行空间或打开，有望回落至35美元区域——此 为前期关键支撑位，曾在看涨突破前有效守住，参考意义较强。 近期银价深度跳水，技术面明确变化：5日、10日均线均拐头下行，4小时级别彻底打破此前37.50-38.70美元的区间震荡，空头动 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Dynamics - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% on May 8, 2025, signaling a potential future rate cut despite a 0.9% month-on-month increase in the PPI for July, which exceeded market expectations [1][3] - The July PPI reached its highest level since June 2022, indicating ongoing supply chain cost pressures, while non-farm employment growth was only 73,000, suggesting signs of a cooling labor market [3] - The dovish signals from the Federal Reserve have led to a rebound in global stock markets, but a weakening dollar may exacerbate capital flow pressures in emerging markets [3] Group 2: Trump's Criticism of the Federal Reserve - On August 19, 2025, Trump criticized Powell for maintaining high interest rates, claiming it harms the housing industry, and called for his resignation while suggesting a replacement [7] - Trump advocated for significant rate cuts, proposing a reduction of 300 basis points to stimulate the real estate market and economic growth, contrasting with the Fed's cautious approach to inflation [7] - Trump's scrutiny of the Federal Reserve's budget, particularly the renovation costs exceeding $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion, has raised questions about its management transparency [7] Group 3: European Central Bank Warnings - ECB President Lagarde indicated that U.S. tariffs on European goods could reduce Eurozone GDP by approximately 0.3 percentage points in the first year, with potential retaliatory measures from the EU increasing the impact to 0.5 percentage points [10][12] - The tariffs are expected to directly affect Eurozone manufacturing exports and temporarily raise inflation by about 0.5 percentage points, while long-term growth may be suppressed [12] - The Eurozone's economic growth forecast for 2025 is only 0.9%, with core inflation remaining low at 0.9%, limiting the ability to respond to imported inflation through interest rate hikes [12] Group 4: Interconnections and Global Impact - The conflict between Trump's rate cut demands and the Fed's data-dependent strategy increases policy uncertainty, affecting global confidence in dollar assets [15] - U.S. tariff policies are dragging down Eurozone growth through trade channels, creating a "lose-lose" situation as retaliatory measures raise import costs [15] - Emerging markets are compelled to raise interest rates to combat imported inflation, while the Eurozone faces a "low growth-low inflation" trap, limiting monetary policy options [15]