Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic fundamental side shows a marginal recovery trend, but the recovery foundation needs to be consolidated, and policy expectations continue to increase. The overseas market shows signs of economic cooling, and the Fed's policy still favors anti - inflation. The bond market is in a sideways shock, and the bond bull environment remains unchanged. It is recommended to wait for the short - end to stabilize before making band allocations [92] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - **Contract Performance**: The 30 - year TL2506 contract fell 0.32%, the 10 - year T2506 contract rose 0.06%, the 5 - year TF2506 contract fell 0.01%, and the 2 - year TS2506 contract fell 0.02%. The trading volumes of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts all decreased, as did their open interests [11][28] - **CTD Bond Performance**: For the 30 - year, 200012.IB fell 0.33 and 210005.IB fell 0.15; for the 10 - year, 220003.IB fell 0.06 and 240025.IB remained unchanged; for the 5 - year, 240014.IB rose 0.03 and 220021.IB rose 0.11; for the 2 - year, 240024.IB rose 0.03 and 220002.IB rose 0.09 [11] 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: On May 7, China agreed to have contact with the US, and the Chinese finance minister said China would achieve the 5% growth target in 2025. On May 8, three departments issued a package of financial policies, including a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut, a 0.1 - percentage - point policy rate cut, etc. The public fund industry worth over 30 trillion yuan underwent systematic reform [31] - **International News**: On May 8, the Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 3 was 228,000, lower than expected [32] 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes**: The yield spreads between 10Y - 5Y and 10Y - 1Y bonds widened slightly. The spread between 2 - year and 5 - year main contracts widened slightly, while the spread between 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts narrowed slightly. The inter - period spreads of 10 - year, 30 - year, 2 - year, and 5 - year contracts weakened slightly [40][44][50] - **Main Contract Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 holders in the T main contract decreased slightly [61] - **Interest Rate Changes**: Overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates all declined. The DR007 weighted average rate rose to around 1.78%, and the money market tightened. The yields of short - term treasury bonds were stronger than long - term ones, with 1 - 7Y yields down 2 - 5bp and 10Y, 30Y yields up 1bp to 1.63% and 1.88% respectively. The yield spreads between US and Chinese 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds widened slightly [65][69] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 836.1 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and had 1617.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchase maturities, resulting in a net injection of 781.7 billion yuan. The DR007 weighted average rate fell to around 1.52%, and the money market tightness improved [72] - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bond issuance was 1433.8 billion yuan, total repayment was 813.6 billion yuan, and net financing was 620.169 billion yuan [76] - **Market Sentiment**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.2095, down 81 basis points this week. The spread between offshore and onshore RMB strengthened. The 10 - year US treasury bond yield rose slightly, the VIX index fell slightly, the 10 - year treasury bond yield in China rose slightly, and the A - share risk premium fell slightly [82][85][89] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: The domestic economy shows a marginal recovery, but the recovery foundation needs to be strengthened, and policy expectations will continue to increase [92] - **Overseas Situation**: The US economy shows signs of cooling, and the Fed's policy still favors anti - inflation, with the possibility of delaying the rate - cut time to July [92] - **Strategy**: The bond market is in a sideways shock. Considering the long - term need for a low - interest - rate environment, the bond bull environment remains unchanged. However, beware of the risk of long - end bond price corrections. It is recommended to wait for the short - end to stabilize before making band allocations [92]

证券研究报告 宏观视角 解析一揽子金融政策：总量与结构并 重稳市场、稳经济 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 07 日│中国内地 易峘 研究员 SAC No. S0570520100005 SFC No. AMH263 evayi@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 今日（5 月 7 日）上午 9 点，国新办召开介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况的新闻发布会，央行行长 潘功胜、金融监管总局局长李云泽、证监会主席吴清出席，为去年 9 月 24 日后第二次召开同样规格、相同部委"组合" 的新闻发布会。发布会上央行推出 10 项、金融监管总局推出 8 项、证监会推出 4 大类稳市场、稳预期金融政策。简评 如下： 1. 概览及主要结论 1) 降准 50 基点释放约 1 万亿流动性。央行宣布自 5 月 15 日起、下调金融机构存款准备金率 0.5 个百分点（不含已 执行 5%存款准备金率的金融机构），并阶段性下调汽车金融公司和金融租赁公司存款准备金率 5 个百分点，预计 释放流动性约 1 万亿元。 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。 1 首先，本次发布会政策意图明确、 ...

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 贾东旭 等 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 作者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 贾东旭 事件： 5 月 7 日，国新办举行新闻发布会介绍 "一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期" 情况 。 本次发布会的变与不变？三大部门负责人出席，更侧重详细阐释政策落实情况 继"9.24"金融政策发布会后，央行、金融监管总局、证监会负责人再度联合召开新闻发布会，详解本轮一 揽子金融政策支持进展。 4月中央政治局会议作出部署后，多部门已召开新闻发布会解读落实举措。 5月7 日，央行、金融监管总局、证监会负责人进一步详解稳市场强预期的一揽子金融政策。与"9.24"发布会相 似，本次发布会仍为三大金融相关部门负责人共同出席；不同在于，此次发布会紧跟4月中央政治局会议， 侧重对政策执行细则的深度解读。 本次发布会，央行重点介绍推出三大类型货币政策措施、十项具体举措。 三大类型包含，数量型政策，通 过降准等措施，加大中长期流动性供给；价格型政策，下调政策利率，降低结构性货币政策工具利率，也 就是中央银行向商业银行提供再贷 ...

年内首次降息降准来了！8日，政策利率下调0.1个百分点落地。一周后，降准0.5个百分点也将如期而 至。降息又降准，充分体现了适度宽松的货币政策立场，从总量、价格、结构等方面发力，为稳就业、 稳企业、稳市场、稳预期提供有力支撑。 潘功胜表示，个人住房公积金贷款利率调降后，预计每年将节省居民公积金贷款利息支出超过200亿 元，有利于支持居民家庭刚性住房需求，促进房地产市场止跌企稳。 全面+定向降准释放万亿元长期资金 降息落地带动企业居民融资成本下降 8日起，公开市场7天期逆回购操作利率由此前的1.50%调整为1.40%，下降0.1个百分点。 中国人民银行行长潘功胜日前在国新办举行的新闻发布会上介绍，下调政策利率0.1个百分点，预计将 带动贷款市场报价利率（LPR）同步下行约0.1个百分点。同时，通过利率自律机制引导，商业银行也 将相应下调存款利率。 "降息充分体现逆周期调节力度加大。"中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示，通过利率传导，实体经济 综合融资成本将进一步下降，巩固经济基本面。同时，LPR和存款利率同步下行，有利于保持商业银行 净息差的稳定。 今年以来，我国贷款利率保持在历史低位。3月份，新发放企业贷款加权 ...

银行 一揽子政策的效能—由政策端至银行股的投资线索 ——行业点评报告 2025 年 05 月 08 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 银行 沪深300 相关研究报告 《春潮涌动，韧性彰显—理财 2025Q1 季报解读》-2025.4.25 《破解利润调节器，从拨备论证大行 盈利确定性价值—行业深度报告》 -2025.4.19 《大行资金融出恢复，非银转向一般 性存款—3 月央行信贷收支表要点解 读》-2025.4.15 相比于数量与价格型工具，结构性工具组合拳更超预期，整体包含了降息（普 降 0.25pct）、扩容（新设 5000 亿元服务消费与养老再贷款）与扩量（科创技改、 支农支小再贷款均增 3000 亿元）三部分内容。截至 4 月末存续的 9 项结构性政 策工具余额约 5.9 万亿元，占央行资产 13%，尽管规模有限，但其对产业转型 的指导意义远超其数量作用。过往商业银行信贷投向集中于房地产、融资平台 等领域，尤其是部分区域银行已形成路径依赖。在结构性政策工具引导激励下， 银行加大了对 ...

一揽子金融政策有效提振市场情绪。 5月7日，央行、金融监管总局、证监会负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况。 本次发布会出台了降准降息、结构性货币政策工具降价扩容、险资入市加码、公募费率改革等众多增量政策。 公募基金普遍认为，会议释放积极政策信号，有效提振市场情绪。 发布会超预期 此次发布会上，央行发布三类共10项货币政策，延续货币政策适度宽松基调，强化逆周期调节和支持实体经济 发展。 金融监管总局发布8项增量政策，覆盖房地产、资本市场、小微民营企业、外贸及科技创新等多个领域。 证监会强调以下举措：巩固市场回稳向好势头，支持汇金公司发挥好"平准基金"作用；服务新质生产力发展， 出台深化科创板、创业板改革措施，抓紧发布新修订的《上市公司重大资产重组管理办法》和相关监管指引， 发展科技创新债券；推动中长期资金入市，抓紧落实《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》。 "这一次'一揽子金融政策'对市场的影响更偏细水长流。"招商基金指出，虽然市场对本次发布会第一反应的超 预期是央行"双降"，但随着关税冲击的显现，真正能让经济和市场行稳致远的仍在于货币金融政策和财政政策 的协同，预计随着"一揽子金融政策"在今年 ...

昨天两市三大指数全线上涨，上证指数收涨0.80%，深证成指收涨0.22%，创业板指收涨0.51%。沪、深、北交所合计成交量15053亿元。方向上，通用航 空、农业等行业概念涨幅靠前。（数据来源：Wind，截至2025.05.07，过往数据不预示未来） 昨日盘前，市场迎来重磅的利好消息。5月7日上午，国新办举行新闻发布会，央行发布了三类共10项具体宏观货币政策，其中包括： 降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点，预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元；下调政策利率0.1个百分点；下调结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点；降低 个人住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点；增加3000亿元科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度。（资料来源：中国基金报，2025.05.07） 消息一出，A股三大指数集体高开，金融、地产、科技等板块应声上涨，截至收盘，全市场成交额扩大至1.5万亿元，场外资金加速回流。 虽然今年以来央行多次提及"择机降准降息"，但此次发布会的政策力度较大，除了降准、降息之外，还发布一系列积极政策，一定程度上超出了市场预 期。 面对这场年内空前的流动性释放，部分投资者还是难免疑惑：降准降息等政策对股市有何影响？今天我们就来好好 ...

| 分析师 | 林瑾璐 电话：021-25102905 邮箱：linjl@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480519070002 | | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师 | 田馨宇 电话：010-66554013 邮箱：tianxy@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480521070003 | 投资摘要： 事件：5 月 7 日，国新办举行新闻发布会介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，会上央行、金融监管总局、 证监会提出具体政策措施。 货币宽松落地，债市定价权重趋向基本面 2025 年 5 月 8 日 固定收益 点评报告 | ——国新办新闻发布会点评 | | --- | 固 定 收 益 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 敬请参阅报告结尾处的免责声明 东方财智 兴盛之源 P2 东兴证券固定收益报告 关于降息，主要包括三个方面的内容。①下调政策利率 0.1 个百分点，从 1.5%下调到 1.4%，经过市场化的利率传导，预计 将带动贷款市场报价利率（LPR）随之下行 0.1 个百分点。中国人民银行还将通过利率自律机制引导商业银行相 ...

衍生无限未来 从情绪修复到政策组合拳再落地 -- "一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"发布会点评 点石成金 一、发布会解读:金融政策多箭齐发 国新办5月7日举行新闻发布会，请中国人民银行行长、国家金融监督管理总局局长、中国证监会主 席介绍 "一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况。本次发布会干货内容满满，在4月的政治局会议 结合近几个月国际形势和国内经济运行的新特征针对性地给出了一些新的指导思想和后续任务部署之后, 本次国新办发布会拉开了政策落地的帷幕。 央行行长在发布会上发布了三类共10项具体宏观货币政策。央行全方面政策发力,强化逆周期调 节,央行此次带着全面的货币工具回归,425政治局会议的政策精神快速落实。实施好适度宽松的货币政 策，加大中长期流动性供给，保持市场流动性充裕。响应市场的期待，降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点， 预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元；阶段性将汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司的存款准备金率调降为 0%将大力度助力消费金融。全面降低市场利率，下调政策利率0.1%，即公开市场7天期逆回购操作利率 从目前的1.5%调降至1.4%，下调结构性货币政策工具利率0.25%，从总量和结构分别降低企 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing a comprehensive set of monetary policy measures to stabilize the market and expectations, focusing on enhancing liquidity and supporting economic growth through various tools [1][3]. Summary by Category Quantity-Based Policies - The PBOC announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), expected to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market [2]. - A temporary reduction of the RRR for auto finance and financial leasing companies from 5% to 0% was also introduced [2]. Price-Based Policies - The policy interest rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, reducing the 7-day reverse repo rate from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is anticipated to lead to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [2]. - All structural monetary policy tool rates were reduced by 0.25 percentage points, potentially saving banks 15 to 20 billion yuan annually [2]. - The interest rate for personal housing provident fund loans was decreased by 0.25 percentage points, with the rate for first-time homebuyers on five-year loans dropping from 2.85% to 2.6%, expected to save over 20 billion yuan in interest payments annually [2]. Structural Policies - The PBOC is enhancing and creating new structural monetary policy tools to support sectors like technological innovation, consumption expansion, and inclusive finance [1][4]. - A new 500 billion yuan "Service Consumption and Elderly Care Re-loan" tool was established to boost domestic demand and support service consumption sectors [5]. - The quota for the "Technological Innovation and Technical Transformation Re-loan" was increased from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan [5]. Capital Market Support Tools - Two capital market support tools were created to enhance investor confidence and stabilize financial market expectations, allowing listed companies to manage their market value through stock buybacks [7][8]. - The total quota for these tools was merged to 800 billion yuan to improve flexibility and meet diverse market needs [8]. Bond Market Initiatives - The PBOC is preparing to launch a "Technology Board" in the bond market to support the issuance of technology innovation bonds by financial institutions and tech companies, with nearly 100 market entities planning to issue over 300 billion yuan in bonds [9][10]. - A risk-sharing tool for technology innovation bonds was established to lower financing costs for equity investment institutions and support longer-term bond issuance [10].