Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Maintain a relatively optimistic view of the convertible bond market in the second half of the year, due to the continuous imbalance between supply and demand and the "asset shortage" situation, the important role of convertible bonds in the asset portfolio, and the need to conduct high - low switching [1] - In the context of a slow - bull equity market, there are still opportunities for bank convertible bonds [1] - The top ten high - rating, medium - low - price convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par premium rate repair next week are Hexing Convertible Bond, Guangda Convertible Bond, etc. [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - to - Week Market Review 1.1. Equity Market Overall Rise, Most Industries Rise - From August 4th to 8th, the equity market rose overall, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 2.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.25%, the ChiNext Index up 0.49%, and the CSI 300 up 1.23%. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased by about 1121.60 billion yuan to 16748.23 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 6.28% [6][8] - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 25 industries closed up, with National Defense and Military Industry, Non - Ferrous Metals, etc. leading the gains [12] 1.2. Convertible Bond Market Overall Rise, Most Industries Fall - From August 4th to 8th, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.31%. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 4 industries closed up, with Automobile, Social Services, etc. leading the gains. The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 895.48 billion yuan, a significant increase of 72.55 billion yuan, a week - on - week change of 8.82% [15] - About 92.46% of convertible bond issues rose, and 51.72% of them had a gain of over 2% [15] - The overall market conversion premium rate rebounded, with an average daily conversion premium rate of 41.62%, an increase of 0.98 pct compared to last week [22] - 20 industries saw an expansion in the conversion premium rate, and 17 industries had an increase in conversion parity [28][33] 1.3. Stock - Bond Market Sentiment Comparison - From August 4th to 8th, the weekly weighted average and median of the convertible bond and underlying stock markets were positive, and the underlying stocks had a larger weekly gain. The trading volume of the convertible bond market increased by 5.07% week - on - week, and that of the underlying stock market decreased by 6.84% week - on - week. The trading sentiment of the underlying stock market was better [34] 2. Outlook and Investment Strategy - Maintain the previous view, be relatively optimistic about the convertible bond market in the second half of the year. In the context of a slow - bull equity market, there are still opportunities for bank convertible bonds [1][38] - The top ten high - rating, medium - low - price convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par premium rate repair next week are Hexing Convertible Bond, Guangda Convertible Bond, etc. [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The ultra - long - term credit bond market has strong supply and demand in the primary market, and the issuance scale in 2025 may exceed 1 trillion yuan. The secondary market trading volume has increased significantly, but the buying sentiment has room for repair. It is recommended to pay attention to the allocation and trading opportunities of ultra - long - term credit bonds [2][8][48] - According to the credit spread percentile, the compression degree of the ultra - long - term credit bond spread is not as low as last year. The low - valuation transaction volume and TKN volume in the secondary market have rebounded, but the bullish sentiment in the bond market has declined, indicating that the buying sentiment has room for repair. The "asset shortage" may drive the market to long - duration assets [2][48] - The allocation value of ultra - long - term credit bonds is ranked as 15Y>20Y>10Y>30Y. Some issuers of industrial bonds, urban investment bonds, and bank secondary capital bonds are recommended for investors' reference [3][50][56] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Increment and Stock of Ultra - long - term Credit Bonds 1.1 Increment: Strong Supply and Demand in Primary New Issuance - Supply side: Since early 2023, the issuance interest rate of credit bonds has been in a downward channel, and the issuance cost has decreased, which has attracted more issuers. The issuance scale in 2024 was 1.21 trillion yuan, and the issuance in the second half of the year is usually faster. The issuance scale in 2025 may exceed 1 trillion yuan [7][8] - Demand side: Since early 2021, the primary subscription multiple of ultra - long - term credit bonds has shown an overall upward trend. From late 2023 to July 2024, the subscription multiple increased steeply; from August 2024 to Q1 2025, it decreased rapidly; since April 2025, it has rebounded [10][12][13] 1.2 Stock: Analysis from Different Perspectives - By original issuance term: 10Y and 15Y are the mainstream issuance terms. The balance of bonds with a term of ≥20Y accounts for less than 10% of the total [15] - By implied rating: High - rated bonds account for a high proportion, with AAA -, AAA, and AAA+ bonds accounting for 81% of the total [16] - By bond type: Medium - term notes, bank capital bonds, and corporate bonds have the highest stock balances, accounting for 96% of the total [18] - By industry distribution: The stock scale of industrial bonds>bank secondary capital bonds>urban investment bonds. The weighted average exercise valuations of urban investment, comprehensive, and non - bank finance industries are relatively high [21] 2. Fluctuations in Secondary Trading of Ultra - long - term Credit Bonds 2.1 Significant Increase in Secondary Trading Volume This Year - Since early 2024, the primary market of ultra - long - term credit bonds has expanded significantly, and the secondary market activity has increased. In mid - June 2025, the weekly trading volume reached a peak [24] 2.2 Changes in Buying Sentiment - Since February 2025, the buying sentiment of ultra - long - term credit bonds has been continuously boosted, and the monthly TKN ratio of industrial bonds, bank secondary capital bonds, and urban investment bonds has remained above 62% [25] - Since February 2025, the proportion of low - valuation transactions has rebounded but has not reached the high point of last July. In the first half of 2025, the low - valuation transaction deviation of ultra - long - term industrial bonds, urban investment bonds, and bank perpetual bonds has narrowed compared with the same period last year [30][31] 3. Who Buys Ultra - long - term Credit Bonds? - Banks have been net sellers of ultra - long - term credit bonds since 2025, mainly due to underwriting and regulatory restrictions [37] - Insurance companies, wealth management subsidiaries, and wealth management products are the main allocation funds for ultra - long - term credit bonds this year. Insurance companies show a "buy low, sell high" strategy, and wealth management products have strong allocation attributes [37][39] - Fund companies and products have stronger trading attributes. They were net sellers during the bond market adjustment in Q1 2025 and have significantly increased their allocation since March [39] 4. Investment Recommendations - Based on the credit spread and secondary market trading sentiment, it is recommended to pay attention to the allocation and trading opportunities of ultra - long - term credit bonds [48] - The allocation value of ultra - long - term credit bonds is ranked as 15Y>20Y>10Y>30Y [50] - Some issuers of industrial bonds, urban investment bonds, and bank secondary capital bonds are recommended, such as Chengtong Holdings, Shenzhen Metro, etc. [56]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market continued its recovery this week, with most interest rates declining to varying degrees, especially short - term and credit interest rates. The short - term interest rate's further downward breakthrough momentum is weak, and the bond market may experience short - term phased oscillations, with the subsequent interest rate more likely to break through downward [1][4] - Although other markets and some policies have short - term impacts on the bond market, the continuous loosening of funds provides protection, and the overall pattern of asset shortage in the bond market remains unchanged [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Bond Market Current Situation - This week, the bond market continued its recovery, with short - term and credit interest rates declining more significantly. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate dropped 1.8bps to 1.62%, and the 1 - year and 5 - year AAA - secondary capital bonds decreased by 2.7bps and 0.7bps respectively. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate fell 1.7bps to 1.69%, while the 30 - year Treasury bond rate rose slightly by 1.1bps to 1.96%. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate has recovered most of its decline from the impact of the stock and commodity markets [1][8] Factors Restraining the Downward Breakthrough of Interest Rates - Other markets still suppress the bond market sentiment. The recent strong performance of the stock market affects the bond market sentiment, especially long - term bonds. The 30 - year Treasury bond has been weak recently due to this factor [2][9] - Institutional caution and the implementation of some growth - stabilizing policies will short - term constrain the bullish forces. In the second quarter of this year, the duration of funds increased significantly, and high positions made institutions operate more cautiously. The relaxation of purchase restrictions in Beijing may also affect the downward force of interest rates [2][11] Factors Protecting the Bond Market - The continuous loosening of funds provides market protection, making it difficult for interest rates to rise significantly. The overnight interest rate is around 1.3%, and R007 is around 1.4%, protecting the overall market. During the market recovery since July 29, short - term interest rates have declined more significantly [3][11] - In the future, funds will remain loose. Financing demand may continue to slow down, government bond supply will decrease, and fund supply is sufficient. The central bank has stated that it will maintain ample liquidity [3][12] Future Outlook for the Bond Market - The bond market may experience short - term phased oscillations. As the fundamentals and asset supply - demand change, the interest rate is more likely to break through downward. From the fundamental perspective, low interest rates are needed to boost domestic demand, and from the asset supply - demand perspective, the decrease in asset supply and continuous loosening of funds will increase the pressure of asset shortage [4][13] - After the phased cooling of the stock and commodity markets, the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds may oscillate when approaching the pre - adjustment levels of 1.65% and 1.85%. Subsequently, as the fundamentals change and the asset shortage evolves, the interest rate may break through downward, more likely near or in the fourth quarter [4][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - This week (from August 4th to August 8th), in the primary market, the issuance volume, repayment volume, and net financing of traditional credit bonds all increased compared to last week; the net financing of asset - backed securities increased by 20.9 billion yuan compared to last week. The weighted average issuance rate of AA+ financial bonds increased, while the issuance costs of other bond types decreased to varying degrees [1]. - In the secondary market, the trading volume of credit bonds decreased by 168.2 billion yuan compared to last week, and the turnover rate declined overall. The yields of credit bonds within 5 years performed well, with yields of different - rated credit bonds decreasing by 1 - 5 BP, while the long - end performance was average. Generally, the credit spreads of most industries and ratings narrowed to varying degrees, and only a few industries' credit spreads widened slightly [2]. - There were 46 bond implicit ratings downgraded this week. The "H22 Guohou 1" issued by Guohou Asset Management Co., Ltd. defaulted, and the "H6 Chuying 02" issued by Chuying Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Group Co., Ltd. was extended [2]. - The redemption of bond funds eased this week, and the new tax policy increased the cost - effectiveness of general credit bonds, which was a short - term positive for long - duration credit bonds. The compression of ultra - long - term credit bond spreads has not reached last year's low. Although the proportion of low - valuation transaction volumes and TKN transactions has increased this year, the bullish sentiment in the bond market has declined, indicating that there is room for the buying sentiment to recover. The market trend may further develop towards long - duration assets [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Net Financing Scale - The net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) this week was 315.9 billion yuan, an increase of 215.7 billion yuan compared to last week. The total issuance volume was 499.6 billion yuan, an increase of 268.3 billion yuan, and the total repayment volume was 183.7 billion yuan, an increase of 52.6 billion yuan. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 8.1 billion yuan, an increase of 20.9 billion yuan [8]. - By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 76.7 billion yuan, an increase of 65.7 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 149.3 billion yuan, an increase of 90.2 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 89.9 billion yuan, an increase of 59.8 billion yuan [8]. - In terms of the number of issuances and redemptions, the number of urban investment bond issuances increased by 69, and the number of redemptions decreased by 30; the number of industrial bond issuances increased by 124, and the number of redemptions increased by 9; the number of financial bond issuances increased by 28, and the number of redemptions increased by 3 [11]. 3.1.2 Issuance Cost - The weighted average issuance rate of AA+ financial bonds increased, while the issuance costs of other bond types decreased to varying degrees. The issuance rate of AA+ financial bonds increased by 37 BP, mainly due to the high - rate issuance of "25 Weifang Bank Perpetual Bond 01" and "25 Guorui 01". The issuance rate of AA industrial bonds decreased by 59 BP, mainly because the new bonds issued by AA industrial entities this week with a total scale of 2.238 billion yuan had an issuance rate of 2.2% or lower. The issuance rates of other different - rated and different - type bonds decreased by no more than 13 BP [17]. 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Trading Situation - In terms of trading volume, the trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 168.2 billion yuan compared to last week. The trading volume of urban investment bonds was 227.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.1 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 331.4 billion yuan, an increase of 400 million yuan; that of financial bonds was 398.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 153.4 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset - backed securities was 900 million yuan, a decrease of 770 million yuan [19]. - In terms of turnover rate, the turnover rate of credit bonds declined overall. The turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.46%, a decrease of 0.11 pct; that of industrial bonds was 1.84%, a decrease of 0.01 pct; that of financial bonds was 2.67%, a decrease of 1.04 pct; and that of asset - backed securities was 0.26%, a decrease of 0.23 pct [19]. 3.2.2 Yields - The yields of credit bonds within 5 years performed well, with yields of different - rated credit bonds decreasing by 1 - 5 BP, while the long - end performance was average. Specifically, the yields of AA, AAA -, and AAA+ credit bonds within 1 year decreased by 4 BP, 3 BP, and 4 BP respectively compared to last week; the yields of AA, AAA -, and AAA+ credit bonds between 3 - 5 years decreased by 3 BP, 1 BP, and 2 BP respectively; and the yields of AA, AAA -, and AAA+ credit bonds over 10 years fluctuated within 1 BP [24]. - Taking AA+ 5 - year bonds of each type as an example, the yields of different types of bonds decreased to varying degrees this week. The yields of non - publicly issued industrial bonds and perpetual industrial bonds decreased by 3 BP and 1 BP respectively; the yield of AA+ 5 - year urban investment bonds decreased by 3 BP; the yields of commercial bank ordinary bonds and secondary capital bonds decreased by 2 BP respectively; and the yield of AA+ 5 - year asset - backed securities decreased by 2 BP [25]. 3.2.3 Credit Spreads - Generally, the credit spreads of most industries and ratings narrowed to varying degrees, and only a few industries' credit spreads widened slightly. Specifically, the credit spreads of AA+ non - ferrous metals and household appliances compressed by 7 BP and 6 BP respectively compared to last week; the credit spreads of AA+ computer, AAA electrical equipment, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery widened by no more than 2 BP; the credit spreads of other industries and ratings compressed by no more than 5 BP [26]. 3.2.3.1 Urban Investment Bonds - By term, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds within 1 year compressed slightly, while the spreads of other terms widened slightly. The 0.5 - 1 - year urban investment credit spread was 31 BP, a compression of 3 BP compared to last week; the 1 - 3 - year spread was 38 BP, a compression of 3 BP; the 3 - 5 - year spread was 57 BP, a compression of 2 BP; the 5 - 10 - year spread was 50 BP, a compression of 2 BP; and the spread over 10 years was 41 BP, a compression of 1 BP [30]. - By region, the credit spreads of most urban investment bonds widened, and only a few regions' credit spreads compressed slightly. The AA - rated credit spreads of Hebei and Yunnan compressed by 6 BP and 12 BP respectively, and the AA+ - rated credit spread of Liaoning compressed by 6 BP. The credit spreads of other regions fluctuated within 5 BP [31]. 3.2.3.2 Industrial Bonds - This week, the credit spreads of industrial bonds fluctuated slightly within 5 BP overall, and the long - end spreads were under pressure for adjustment. Specifically, the credit spreads of 1 - year AAA -, AA+, and AA private - placement industrial bonds compressed by 1 BP, 2 BP, and widened by 1 BP respectively compared to last week; the credit spreads of 10 - year AAA -, AA+, and AA private - placement industrial bonds widened by 3 BP each; the credit spreads of 1 - year AAA - and AA perpetual industrial bonds widened by less than 1 BP, and the AA+ perpetual industrial bond spread widened by 1 BP; the credit spreads of 10 - year AAA -, AA+, and AA perpetual industrial bonds widened by 4 BP each [34]. 3.2.3.3 Bank Capital Bonds - This week, the credit spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds showed differentiation, but the overall fluctuation range was not large. Specifically, the credit spreads of 1 - year AAA -, AA+, and AA Tier 2 capital bonds compressed by less than 1 BP, 1 BP, and 2 BP respectively; the credit spreads of 10 - year AAA -, AA+, and AA Tier 2 capital bonds widened by 2 BP each; the credit spreads of 1 - year AAA -, AA+, and AA bank perpetual bonds compressed by 1 BP each; the credit spreads of 10 - year AAA -, AA+, and AA bank perpetual bonds compressed by 2 BP each [37]. 3.3 This Week's Bond Market Rumors - There were 46 bond implicit ratings downgraded this week, including 31 by China Railway Construction Real Estate Group Co., Ltd., 10 by Shanghai Jinmao Investment Management Group Co., Ltd., and 3 by Luneng Group Co., Ltd. The "H22 Guohou 1" issued by Guohou Asset Management Co., Ltd. defaulted, and the "H6 Chuying 02" issued by Chuying Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Group Co., Ltd. was extended [40]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - This week, there were 1.6632 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases due in the open market, and the central bank conducted 1.1267 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan for the whole week. The DR001 dropped from 1.34% at the Monday close to 1.29%. The active 10 - year Treasury bond showed no significant change from last Friday's close, fluctuating around 1.69%. Generally, the credit spreads of most industries and ratings narrowed to varying degrees, and only a few industries' credit spreads widened slightly. For urban investment bonds, the credit spreads of those within 1 year compressed slightly, while the spreads of other terms widened slightly. For industrial bonds, the credit spreads fluctuated slightly within 5 BP overall, and the long - end spreads were under pressure for adjustment. For bank capital bonds, the credit spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds showed differentiation, but the overall fluctuation range was not large [42]. - The redemption of bond funds eased this week, and the new tax policy increased the cost - effectiveness of general credit bonds, which was a short - term positive for long - duration credit bonds. From the perspective of credit spread positions, the long - end risk - free interest rate has been in a downward channel since July 2024, and the yields of ultra - long - term credit bonds followed suit. The credit spreads reached an extreme in July last year, and currently, the compression of ultra - long - term credit bond spreads has not reached last year's low. From the perspective of secondary trading sentiment, the proportion of low - valuation transaction volumes and TKN transactions has increased this year. However, affected by the strong equity market in July and the sharp rise in commodity futures prices catalyzed by the "anti - involution" sentiment, the bullish sentiment in the bond market has declined, indicating that there is room for the buying sentiment to recover. In addition, with the concentrated listing of Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETFs on July 17th, the spreads of medium - and short - end component bonds have been compressed to an extreme. Driven by the "asset shortage" in the low - interest - rate environment this year, the market trend may further develop towards long - duration assets [43]. - From the timing signal of ultra - long - term credit bonds, using the spread between the yield to maturity of AAA+ ChinaBond Medium - and Short - Term Notes and the Treasury bond rate of the same term as the observation object and constructing a Bollinger Band with the 60 - day average spread ± 2 standard deviations, as of August 8th, the 10 - year spread touched the 60 - day moving average but did not form an effective breakthrough; the 15 - year and 20 - year spreads have effectively broken through the average and touched the upper limit of the channel since the adjustment in late July; the 30 - year spread is still hovering near the lower limit of the channel without an obvious trend. In terms of the term structure, the 15 - 20 - year ultra - long - term credit bonds have relatively high cost - effectiveness after the adjustment catalyzed by the "anti - involution" market. The ranking of the allocation value of ultra - long - term credit bonds from high to low is 15Y > 20Y > 10Y > 30Y [44]. - Specifically, issuers with relatively large outstanding volumes, more than 50 cumulative transactions from January 1st to August 5th, and a weighted average yield to call of over 2% in industrial bonds, urban investment bonds, and bank Tier 2 capital bonds are recommended. In industrial bonds, State Grid Corporation of China has the largest outstanding volume of ultra - long - term credit bonds and active trading, but its yield level is relatively low. China Chengtong Holdings Group Co., Ltd., Sinochem Group Co., Ltd., Aluminum Corporation of China Limited, and Guangzhou Yuexiu Group Co., Ltd. have both yield levels and activity, and are relatively more cost - effective. In urban investment bonds, most have better static coupon rates than industrial bonds, but the range of available outstanding bonds is relatively narrow. Attention can be paid to the further compression opportunities of the spreads of ultra - long - term bonds of issuers such as Shenzhen Metro Group Co., Ltd., Shaanxi Transportation Holding Group Co., Ltd., Yantai Guofeng Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd., and Sichuan Expressway Construction and Development Group Co., Ltd. In bank Tier 2 capital bonds, the outstanding ultra - long - term bonds are mainly concentrated in several large state - owned and joint - stock commercial banks, and their yield levels are relatively less cost - effective compared to industrial and urban investment bonds [49].

有债市交易员表示，持续释放的强监管信号，引导收益率近日连续上行，目前10年期和30年期国债收益 率的阶段性底部基本确定，市场继续关注人民银行等管理部门的动态。 流动性方面，Wind数据显示，上周央行公开市场净回笼7597.6亿元，净回笼量为3月初以来单周新高。 截至8月9日收盘，DR001（银行间市场存款类机构隔夜质押式回购利率）加权平均利率上行约10基点报 1.79%。 8月9日，债券市场继续下跌，长债价格跌幅更大。Wind数据显示，截至当日收盘，30年期国债期货主 力合约跌0.21%，10年期国债期货主力合约跌0.20%，5年期、2年期国债期货主力合约分别跌0.11%、 0.04%。 银行间主要利率债收益率全线上行。截至8月9日收盘，30年期国债活跃券"230023"收益率上行2.5基点 成交在2.38%，10年期国债活跃券"240004"收益率上行3基点成交在2.20%，10年期国债"240011"收益率 上行2.5基点成交在2.20%，备受关注的7年期国债"240013"收益率上行5.4基点成交在2.07%。 在市场人士看来，最近债市转为连续下跌，与相关部门的监管态度和出台举措不无关系。 交易商协会8 ...

本报记者 韩 昱 比如，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在第十五届陆家嘴论坛上的主题演讲中提到，"金融市场的快速发展， 也给中央银行带来新的挑战。美国硅谷银行的风险事件启示我们，中央银行需要从宏观审慎角度观察、 评估金融市场的状况，及时校正和阻断金融市场风险的累积，当前特别是要关注一些非银主体大量持有 中长期债券的期限错配和利率风险，保持正常向上倾斜的收益率曲线，保持市场对投资的正向激励作 用。" 6月25日，中国人民银行货币政策委员会2024年第二季度（总第105次）例会提到，在经济回升过程中， 也要关注长期收益率的变化。 此外，央行8月9日发布的《2024年第二季度中国货币政策执行报告》（以下简称《报告》）显示，今年 以来，国债收益率持续较快下行，6月下旬，10年期国债收益率逼近2.2%关口，创20年来新低，已明显 偏离合理中枢水平，不断累积金融风险。7月1日，人民银行发布公告宣布开展国债借入操作，必要时将 择机在公开市场卖出，平衡债市供求，校正和阻断金融市场风险的累积。 明明表示，预计后续债市将维持区间震荡格局。央行在《报告》中再次提到对长期债券收益率的关注， 同时对于资管产品未来收益率回落的风险也进行了提示。因 ...

Group 1 - The convertible bond market has reached a ten-year high, with the China Convertible Bond Index hitting 469.56 points and a year-to-date increase of 12.74% [2] - More than ten convertible bond funds have seen net value growth rates exceeding 15% this year, with the top performer, Southern Changyuan Convertible Bond A, achieving 24.78% [2][3] - The strong performance of convertible bonds is attributed to a supply-demand imbalance and a robust equity market, making them an attractive investment option due to their debt protection and equity-like characteristics [1][2] Group 2 - The current valuation of convertible bonds is considered to be at a relatively high level within a 3-4 year range, with potential opportunities for accumulation if valuations decline [3] - The convertible bond market is expected to experience three phases: initial price recovery, balanced valuation expansion, and high volatility/high return phase [3] - The market is currently characterized by limited downward space, with a focus on sectors like photovoltaic and pig farming for risk-controlled investments [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in A-share bank stocks is attributed to the attractive and stable dividends amidst an "asset shortage" environment, with many stocks becoming more cost-effective after a period of correction [3][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 5, the A-share market saw a rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.96%, surpassing 3600 points, and the China Securities Bank Index rising by 1.6% to 8087.4 points [5]. - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) reached a new high, closing at 6.54 yuan per share, while several other banks also saw significant gains, with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank leading with a 4.72% increase [5][6]. - From July 11 to the end of July, the China Securities Bank Index fell by 7.27%, while ABC was the only bank stock to rise during this period, increasing by 1.95% [6]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Preliminary reports indicate that three out of five regional banks that disclosed their half-year results achieved double-digit growth in net profit attributable to shareholders [3][12]. - The median dividend yield for A-share bank stocks remains around 4%, with nearly 90% of stocks yielding over 3% [11]. Group 3: Regulatory Changes and Impact - Starting August 8, new regulations will impose a value-added tax on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds, which may enhance the relative attractiveness of bank stocks compared to bonds [10][11]. - The new tax regulations are expected to create an incremental tax burden for institutional investors, with projected additional tax revenues of approximately 321 billion yuan, 648 billion yuan, and 988 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [10]. Group 4: Institutional Investment Trends - Insurance funds have shown a strong interest in increasing their holdings in bank stocks, with over 20 instances of shareholding increases this year, surpassing the total for the previous year [11][12]. - The implementation of new accounting standards for the insurance industry has led to a significant increase in bank stock purchases, as these stocks are often priced below their net asset value [13].

"资产荒"困局之下，债市成为中小行资产配置的主战场。 近日，《华夏时报》记者梳理今年以来银行间同业拆借中心的现券买卖月报数据发现，今年4月、5月， 城农商行现券成交金额连续两个月环比下滑；不过，在经历两个月的短暂调整后，城农商行加大现券交 易力度，6 月、7 月现券成交金额分别环比增长13.5%、5.7%。其中，7月份现券成交金额达17.24万亿 元，再次突破17万亿元大关，创年内新高。 同时，央行数据显示，今年以来，中资中小银行债券投资金额逐月增加，截至今年6月末，相关投资金 额达46.44万亿元。 "城农商行现券交易频繁的背后驱动因素主要是有效贷款需求不足、信贷投放缩量、大行下沉挤压、跨 区展业受限等。"东方金诚金融业务部高级副总监鲁金飞在接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示，当前市 场环境下，利率债资本占用少，风险相对可控，债券投资收益是城农商行弥补存贷款利差收窄的核心手 段。 城农商行现券交易额创年内新高 近年来，中小银行尤其是农商行债券投资热度上升，逐渐成为债市交易主力。 银行间同业拆借中心数据显示，今年3月份，城农商行合计现券成交金额（买卖方向交易的总和）突破 17万亿元，环比增长42%；当月成交近35 ...

证券研究报告 | 固定收益研究*周报 2025 年 08 月 05 日 固定收益研究 债市周观察（7.28-8.3）——债市短暂触及 1.7%以下 我们在上周报告《十年期国债利率或重回中枢》中指出，在没有新的降息 预期下，后续随着"反内卷"、基建等长期议题的短期冷静，十年期国债 收益率还会重回 1.7%中枢，甚至在资金宽松时，处于 1.65%-1.7%区 间。回溯来看，上周债市波动较大，十年期国债利率先是在周二冲高至 1.75%左右，但后续在周三周四回落，并反复试探下破 1.7%均未成功， 最终却在周五收盘时因一则财政部"增值税公告"而短暂触及 1.7%以 下。 这则公告的内容周末市场发酵和解读已较多，主要就是自 2025 年 8 月 8 日起，新发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券的利息收入，恢复征收增 值税。此次政策调整采用"新老划断"原则，对 8 月 8 日前已发行的相关 债券利息收入，继续免征增值税直至债券到期。从投资者类型来看，8 月 8 日之后，投资新发行的国债等债券所获利息收入需要缴纳增值税，其中 金融机构自营适用的税率为 6%左右，公募基金、理财、券商资管等广义 基金产品适用的税率为 3%左右。 ...