Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range, silver to decline slightly, and copper to await the Fed's interest - rate cut guidance with a narrowing trading range. Zinc is likely to have a weak - side oscillation, while lead's price is supported by inventory reduction. Tin and aluminum are predicted to trade within ranges, and alumina is expected to decline slightly. Cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Nickel will operate in a low - level range, and stainless - steel prices will oscillate due to the game between expectations and reality [2]. Summary by Directory Gold and Silver - **Price and Performance**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 775.12 with a daily increase of 0.32%, and the night - session closing price was 776.08 with a night - session decline of 0.01%. Gold T + D closed at 771.66 with a 0.24% increase, and the night - session price was 772.50 with a 0.01% increase. Comex Gold 2510 closed at 3383.50 with a 0.26% decline, and London gold spot closed at 3338.25 with a 0.25% decline. For silver, Shanghai Silver 2510 closed at 9162 with a 1.31% increase, and the night - session price was 9233.00 with a 0.81% increase. Silver T + D closed at 9144 with a 1.33% increase, and the night - session price was 9198 with a 0.72% increase. Comex Silver 2510 closed at 38.590 with a 0.55% increase, and London silver spot closed at 38.095 with a 0.51% increase [5]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai Gold 2510 and Comex Gold 2510, as well as Shanghai Silver 2510 and Comex Silver 2510, showed different changes compared to the previous day. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2510 decreased by 24,336, and the open interest decreased by 8,259 [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai gold remained at 36,642 kg, while Comex gold inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) decreased by 65,319. Shanghai silver inventory decreased by 25,144 kg, and Comex silver inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) increased by 347,707 [5]. - **Spread and Arbitrage Cost**: The spreads and arbitrage costs of gold and silver showed various changes. For instance, the spread between gold T + D and London gold decreased by 2.52, and the spread between silver T + D and London silver increased by 5,089 [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold's trend intensity is 1, and silver's is - 1 [8]. Copper - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 78,630 with a 0.30% decline, and the night - session price was 78,730 with a 0.13% increase. The LME copper 3M electronic - trading price closed at 9,721 with a 0.38% increase [10]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper main contract increased by 24,847, and the open interest increased by 1,819. The LME copper 3M electronic - trading volume decreased by 718, and the open interest decreased by 2,295 [10]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Shanghai copper inventory decreased by 275, and LME copper inventory increased by 1,200. The spreads between different copper contracts and the arbitrage costs also changed [10]. - **News**: Before Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, some Fed officials made hawkish remarks. The US manufacturing PMI in August reached a new high in more than three years, and a smelter's maintenance period was extended due to equipment failure. Codelco restarted a smelter, and Glencore applied to include copper projects in Argentina's investment incentive plan. China's refined copper and copper concentrate imports in July had different changes [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper's trend intensity is 0 [12]. Zinc - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,240 with a 0.11% decline, and the LME zinc 3M electronic - trading price closed at 2,786 with a 0.58% increase [13]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai zinc main contract decreased by 26,050, and the open interest decreased by 568. The LME zinc trading volume decreased by 1,474, and the open interest increased by 574 [13]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Shanghai zinc inventory remained unchanged, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,875. The spreads and import - profit situations also changed [13]. - **News**: The US manufacturing PMI in August reached a new high in more than three years, and the labor - market cooling was more obvious [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc's trend intensity is 0 [15]. Lead - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,745 with a 0.12% increase, and the LME lead 3M electronic - trading price closed at 1,980.5 with a 0.33% increase [16]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 9,828, and the open interest decreased by 2,546. The LME lead trading volume decreased by 1,375, and the open interest decreased by 964 [16]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Shanghai lead inventory decreased by 1,481, and LME lead inventory decreased by 1,500. The spreads and import - profit situations also changed [16]. - **News**: Before Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, some Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and the US manufacturing PMI in August reached a new high in more than three years [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead's trend intensity is 0 [17]. Tin - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 266,480 with a 0.51% decline, and the night - session price was 266,840 with a 0.30% decline. The LME tin 3M electronic - trading price closed at 33,475 with a 0.89% decline [20]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai tin main contract decreased by 27,750, and the open interest decreased by 633. The LME tin 3M electronic - trading volume decreased by 9, and the open interest increased by 53 [20]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 71, and LME tin inventory increased by 25. The spreads between different tin contracts also changed [20]. - **News**: Before Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, some Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and the US manufacturing PMI in August reached a new high in more than three years. The euro - zone business activity reached a 15 - month high, and the US and the EU reached an agreement on the trade - agreement framework [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin's trend intensity is - 1 [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,590, and the LME aluminum 3M price closed at 2,593. The Shanghai alumina main - contract price was 3,124, and the cast - aluminum alloy main - contract price was 20,125. Their prices showed different changes compared to previous periods [23]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes and open interests of Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, Shanghai alumina, and cast - aluminum alloy contracts had various changes [23]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventories of aluminum, alumina, and related products, as well as the spreads between different contracts, showed different trends [23]. - **News**: A Fed official said that there might be no interest - rate cut in September [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and cast - aluminum alloy are all 0 [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 119,830, and the stainless - steel main - contract price was 12,795. Their prices showed different changes compared to previous periods [27]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes and open interests of the Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel main contracts had various changes [27]. - **Industry - Chain Data**: The prices and spreads of nickel - related products and stainless - steel products in the industry chain also changed [27]. - **News**: There were issues such as potential nickel - export suspension from Canada, a nickel - iron project in Indonesia entering the trial - production stage, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, and production suspensions in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelters [27][28][29]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [32].

Market Overview - On August 21, US stock indices collectively declined, with the S&P 500 down 0.4%, the Dow Jones down 0.34%, and the Nasdaq down 0.34%. The S&P 500 experienced a five-day losing streak, while the Nasdaq fell for three consecutive days [1][11]. Federal Reserve Insights - Global attention is focused on the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to deliver a keynote speech. This event is viewed as a critical moment for the future direction of the Fed's monetary policy [2][4]. - On the same day, several Federal Reserve officials, including Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, and Kansas City Fed President Esther George, expressed cautious signals, emphasizing that monetary policy must rely on data and is not in a hurry to cut rates [5][6]. Economic Indicators - According to S&P Global, driven by stronger demand, the US manufacturing PMI expanded at its fastest pace in over three years, pushing the composite PMI, which includes services, to its highest level of the year in August. This also intensified ongoing inflationary pressures, as companies increasingly passed on rising costs to customers [4]. Walmart Financial Performance - Walmart reported second-quarter revenue of $177.4 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $176.16 billion. However, adjusted earnings per share were $0.68, falling short of the expected $0.74, marking the first time in three years that profits did not meet expectations [14]. - Walmart raised its full-year sales growth forecast to between 3.75% and 4.75%, up from the previous estimate of 3% to 4% [15]. Chinese Stocks Performance - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1.35%, with notable gains in several Chinese stocks. Xpeng Motors surged nearly 12%, while NIO and Tuniu also saw significant increases [15]. - Xpeng Motors reported a total revenue of RMB 18.27 billion for Q2 2025, a 125.3% increase year-over-year, driven by a significant rise in vehicle deliveries, which reached 103,200 units, a 241.6% year-over-year increase [16].

Group 1 - Emerging market currencies have declined for the sixth consecutive day due to strong U.S. manufacturing data and hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials, which have further pressured expectations for interest rate cuts [1][4] - The focus is shifting to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference, where he may reiterate the limited impact of tariffs on inflation while acknowledging a softening labor market, reinforcing market interest rate expectations [4] - The Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President, Loretta Mester, stated that she would not support a rate cut if a decision were needed tomorrow, leading to a decline in the overall performance of emerging market currencies to the lowest level since early August [4] Group 2 - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index saw a slight rebound of 0.1%, ending a two-day decline caused by a drop in U.S. tech stocks, while the bond market showed mixed results [6] - The Hungarian forint led the decline among currencies due to escalating rumors regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while the Brazilian real and Mexican peso remained strong against the dollar [6] - In the geopolitical arena, former President Trump indicated support for Ukraine to launch more counterattacks against Russia, suggesting a potential shift in U.S. policy, which could impact risk assets [7]

Core Viewpoint - Due to tariff policies leading to increased retail prices during the holiday season, consumer demand for discounted clothing and accessories has risen, resulting in stronger-than-expected quarterly profits and a robust annual forecast from Ross Stores (ROST.US), which significantly boosted its stock price in after-hours trading [1][2]. Financial Performance - Ross Stores reported a 2% increase in same-store sales for the second quarter, with sales for the three months ending August 2 reaching $5.53 billion, a 2% year-over-year increase, although slightly below the market expectation of $5.57 billion [1]. - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter were $1.56, exceeding market expectations by $0.02 [1]. - The company has revised its full-year EPS forecast to a range of $6.08 to $6.21, which includes an estimated tariff impact of $0.22 to $0.25 per share, while the market expectation stands at $6.10 [1]. Future Outlook - Ross Stores anticipates same-store sales growth of 2% to 3% over the next two quarters, with the upper end of this range representing the largest increase since the beginning of the year [2]. - The company projects third-quarter EPS between $1.31 and $1.37, below the market expectation of $1.47, but expects fourth-quarter EPS to be between $1.74 and $1.81, surpassing the market forecast of $1.69 [1][2]. Market Context - The tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration have led to increased prices for imported goods, benefiting discount retailers as consumers become more budget-conscious amid rising inflation [2]. - Other retailers, such as TJX Companies (TJX.US) and Home Depot (HD.US), have also reported positive performance, indicating a broader trend of consumers seeking value [2]. Stock Performance - As of Thursday's close, Ross Stores' stock has declined by 4.4% year-to-date, underperforming the S&P 500 index, which has risen by 8.3% during the same period [3].

Core Viewpoint - Japan's bond market is experiencing a significant sell-off due to concerns over fiscal conditions and persistent inflation, leading to a surge in long-term government bond yields to their highest levels in a decade [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Yield Trends - On August 21, Japan's long-term government bond yields rose sharply, with the 10-year yield reaching 1.61%, the highest since October 2008 [1]. - The 20-year bond yield hit 2.655%, the highest since 1999, while the 30-year yield approached its historical high of 3.2% [1]. - As of 6 PM Beijing time, the 10-year yield was at 1.616%, the 20-year yield at 2.649%, and the 30-year yield at 3.197% [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Bond Yields - The primary driver of rising yields is investor expectations of new fiscal stimulus measures following the ruling coalition's loss in the July Senate elections, which will increase Japan's already high debt levels [1][3]. - Persistent inflation in Japan has raised the likelihood of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, further pushing up bond yields [2][4]. - A significant drop in demand for Japanese bonds has been noted, with net purchases of 10-year and longer bonds by overseas investors falling to 480 billion yen (approximately 3.3 billion USD) in July, just one-third of June's purchases [2][4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The bond market has faced a "disastrous" decline in demand, attributed to rising inflation and potential fiscal stimulus, which increases the burden on Japan's already high leverage [3][6]. - Despite high yields, overseas investors had been attracted to Japanese bonds earlier this year, with net purchases reaching 9.2841 trillion yen in the first seven months, the highest since records began in 2004 [4]. - However, the trend has reversed since July, with concerns over fiscal imbalances and the Bank of Japan's gradual exit from the bond market contributing to reduced demand [4][6]. Group 4: Potential Interventions - Experts suggest that if the sell-off continues, the Bank of Japan may intervene to stabilize the bond market, potentially through liquidity injections or adjustments to its quantitative tightening strategy [7]. - The future trajectory of long-term bond yields will depend on monetary policy direction, fiscal expansion pace, and global interest rate environments [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the U.S. manufacturing PMI has expanded at its fastest pace in over three years due to stronger demand, which has also pushed the composite PMI, including services, to its highest level of the year in August [1][7] - The initial reading of the U.S. August Markit manufacturing PMI is 53.3, the highest since May 2022, surpassing expectations of 49.7 and the previous value of 49.8. Both manufacturing output and backlog orders have reached their highest levels since mid-2022, while new orders have risen to their highest level since February 2024 [3][4] - The strong demand has led manufacturers to accelerate hiring, with employment growth reported as the strongest since March 2022 [4] Group 2 - The U.S. August Markit services PMI initial value is 55.4, a two-month low, but still indicates healthy business activity. The sales index has shown the fastest growth of the year, while the unfinished business index remains at its strongest level since May 2022 [6] - The composite PMI for August is 55.4, marking a nine-month high, exceeding expectations of 53.5 and the previous value of 55.1. The report indicates that rising import tariffs have pushed the sales price index to a three-year high, with consumers bearing the cost pressure as service firms' charge index also reaches a three-year peak [6][8] - Analysts suggest that the latest Markit PMI data reflects strong demand in the U.S. as the second half of the year begins, contributing to an optimistic economic outlook but also intensifying ongoing inflationary pressures [7] Group 3 - Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, states that the strong PMI reading for August further indicates robust performance by U.S. businesses in the third quarter, aligning with an annualized growth rate of 2.5%, which is higher than the average growth rate of 1.3% in the first two quarters of the year [8] - Both manufacturing and service sectors report stronger demand, but they face challenges in meeting sales growth, leading to a significant increase in backlog orders and record growth in finished goods inventory due to concerns over future supply conditions [8] - The rebound in demand has spurred a surge in hiring, enhancing companies' pricing power, which has led to increased pass-through of tariff-related cost increases to customers, resulting in inflationary pressures reaching a three-year high [8]

Core Insights - The strong PMI preliminary value for August indicates robust performance of U.S. businesses in the third quarter, with the economy expanding at an annualized rate of 2.5%, surpassing the average growth rate of 1.3% in the first half of the year [1] Economic Indicators - Both manufacturing and services sectors reported stronger demand, leading to a significant increase in unfinished orders at the fastest rate since early 2022 [1] - Record increases in finished goods inventories are partly due to concerns over future supply conditions [1] Employment and Pricing Power - The rebound in demand has driven a surge in hiring, enhancing companies' pricing power [1] - Companies are increasingly passing on the rising costs associated with tariffs to customers, resulting in inflation pressures reaching the highest level in three years [1] Inflation Outlook - The rise in prices for goods and services suggests that consumer price inflation will likely exceed the Federal Reserve's 2% target in the coming months [1] - The combination of increased business activity and hiring, along with the reported price increases, brings PMI data closer to the "rate hike zone" [1]

Group 1 - James Bullard, a strong contender for the Federal Reserve chair, advocates for aggressive interest rate cuts, suggesting a total reduction of 100 basis points within this year, starting with a cut in September [1][2] - Bullard's stance contrasts with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who maintains a more cautious outlook, expecting only one rate cut this year, reflecting internal policy disagreements within the Fed amid signs of a weak labor market and inflationary pressures [1][3] - Market expectations are leaning towards a rate cut in the upcoming September meeting, with futures contracts indicating a high probability of a 25 basis point reduction [1] Group 2 - Bullard believes the current policy rate is "a bit too high" and emphasizes the need for swift action, indicating that further cuts could follow later this year depending on economic data [2] - Bostic describes the current interest rate level as "marginally" restrictive and suggests that once the Fed begins to adjust rates, it should do so in a consistent direction rather than oscillating [3] - The divergence in views among Fed officials comes at a critical time for policy-making, with Bostic highlighting concerns over recent employment reports and rising wholesale inflation [3]

Group 1 - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,339 per ounce, with a recent high of $3,352 and a low of $3,336, reflecting a decline of approximately 0.26% [1] - After stabilizing in the support range of $3,308-$3,315, gold prices rebounded by about $40, aligning with technical expectations, but the upward momentum appears limited in the short term [3] - The recent earnings report from Home Depot highlights increased import costs due to U.S. tariff policies, leading to price hikes on some products and a downward adjustment in net profit for Q2 and EPS for the year [3] Group 2 - The furniture and home goods import value in the U.S. exceeded $10 billion in Q1, with tariffs exacerbating cost pressures for companies, which may eventually lead to higher consumer prices [3] - The technical outlook for gold indicates that after a significant rise, further upward movement requires a breakthrough in the $3,358-$3,360 range, with stronger resistance at $3,370-$3,375 [4] - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3,330 and $3,320, with the market currently in a consolidation phase, necessitating close monitoring of the $3,330-$3,360 range for potential breakout signals [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: In the short term, copper prices are expected to trade in a range of 77,500 - 79,000 yuan/ton. The "stagflation - like" environment in the US restricts the upside of copper prices, but the supply - demand contradiction in the medium - long term provides support. The short - term trading focus is on the US inflation and employment data in August, which will affect the Fed's decision in September [1]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina market is expected to remain in a slight surplus, with the main contract price oscillating between 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton. It is advisable to short at high prices. For electrolytic aluminum, the short - term price is under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price between 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and the 21,000 yuan/ton level is a key resistance [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply - demand of the aluminum alloy market remains weak, with the main contract price expected to oscillate between 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply and import of scrap aluminum [4]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are likely to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract price between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The supply - demand fundamentals do not strongly support a continuous rise in zinc prices, but low inventories provide support [6]. - **Tin**: Tin prices will have a wide - range oscillation in the short term. If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; otherwise, tin prices are expected to remain high and oscillate [9]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market is expected to have an interval adjustment in the short term, with the main contract price between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The macro situation is weakening, and the supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market will oscillate in the short term, with the main contract price between 12,800 - 13,500 yuan/ton. The cost support is strengthening, but the spot demand is weak [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices are expected to have a wide - range oscillation, with the main contract price having strong support between 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. Although the market sentiment is weak, the fundamentals are in a tight balance [12]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 78,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium dropped to 190 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference decreased by 10.08% to 944 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 10.01% week - on - week to 55.76 million tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 20,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. The import profit and loss improved to - 1,154 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,350 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread between 2511 - 2512 decreased to - 5 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.63%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.31% [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped to 22,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14%. The import profit and loss improved to - 1,644 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 13.59% week - on - week to 13.54 million tons [6]. Tin - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 1 tin price rose to 267,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.49%. The import profit and loss decreased to - 19,038.82 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the domestic tin ore import decreased by 13.71% month - on - month. The SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [9]. Nickel - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 120,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62%. The futures import profit and loss decreased to - 1,857 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the Chinese refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The refined nickel import increased by 116.90% month - on - month to 19,157 tons [10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spreads**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) dropped to 13,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38%. The futures - spot price difference increased to 400 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.00% week - on - week to 49.65 million tons [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spreads**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remained unchanged at 85,700 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread between 2509 - 2511 decreased to 40 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the lithium carbonate production was 93,958 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 2.01% month - on - month to 97,846 tons [12].