Group 1: Market Overview - Semiconductor stocks in the US experienced a significant sell-off, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping over 2% and major companies like Broadcom, TSMC ADR, and Micron Technology falling more than 2% [1][2] - Other tech stocks also declined, with Oracle plunging over 6% and Tesla dropping more than 3% [2] - The overall market sentiment was negatively impacted by concerns over high valuations as highlighted by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [1][2] Group 2: Government Shutdown Risk - The risk of a US government shutdown is increasing, with a 63% probability of a shutdown occurring by October 1, and a 76% chance of a shutdown by 2025 according to Polymarket [3] - The ongoing political standoff between Republicans and Democrats, particularly regarding temporary spending plans, is contributing to this uncertainty [3] Group 3: Economic Data Impact - Recent macroeconomic data revealed a stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth rate of 3.8%, surpassing the anticipated 3.3% [4][5] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index also exceeded expectations, recorded at 2.6% compared to the forecast of 2.5% [4][5] - This robust economic performance raises concerns about persistent inflation, potentially limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates in the near future [5] Group 4: Employment Market Insights - Initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 14,000 to 218,000, marking the lowest level since July, indicating a relatively healthy labor market [6] - Despite signs of a cooling labor market, the limited number of layoffs suggests that employment risks are not escalating significantly [6]

Core Viewpoint - The US stock market, particularly semiconductor stocks, experienced a significant sell-off, driven by concerns over high valuations and the increasing risk of a government shutdown [2][3][4]. Group 1: Semiconductor Stocks Performance - Semiconductor stocks collectively dropped, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling over 2%, and major companies like Broadcom, TSMC ADR, and Micron Technology also declining more than 2% [2][3]. - Other large tech stocks also faced declines, with Oracle dropping over 6% and Tesla down over 3% [3]. Group 2: Economic and Political Risks - The risk of a US government shutdown is rising, with a 63% probability of a shutdown by October 1, and a 76% chance of a shutdown by 2025, as political negotiations stall [4]. - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned about high valuations in the stock market, contributing to a cautious sentiment among investors [3][6]. Group 3: Economic Data and Inflation Concerns - Recent macroeconomic data showed a stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth of 3.8%, with personal consumption expenditures contributing significantly to this growth [5]. - The core PCE price index for Q2 was revised up to 2.6%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures that may limit the Fed's ability to lower interest rates [5][6]. Group 4: Labor Market Insights - Initial jobless claims decreased to 218,000, the lowest since July, suggesting a healthy labor market despite signs of cooling [7].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is experiencing weakness due to ongoing expectations of interest rate cuts, with the Federal Reserve's dovish stance contributing to a lack of bullish momentum [1][3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials, including Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, express concerns about persistent inflation pressures and the challenges of balancing inflation control with employment support [3]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell describes the current economic situation as "challenging," emphasizing the risks of either too rapid or too slow policy adjustments [3]. - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is expected to show some easing of inflation pressures [3]. Group 2: Dollar's Safe-Haven Status - Canadian central bank Governor Tiff Macklem highlights concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, which is diminishing the dollar's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4]. - Historical trends indicate that during periods of market turmoil, investors typically seek refuge in dollar assets, but this pattern is changing, with the dollar's safe-haven value potentially weakening [4]. - Macklem notes that the dollar depreciated by approximately 10% during significant shifts in US trade policy, while gold prices surged by 40% during the same period [4]. Group 3: Political Influences - The Trump administration has criticized the Federal Reserve for its slow pace of interest rate cuts, leading to tensions regarding the independence of the central bank [5]. - Legal challenges regarding the potential removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook are ongoing, reflecting the political pressures faced by the Federal Reserve [5].

Group 1 - OECD raised global economic growth forecast to 3.2% for this year, up from 2.9% in June [4] - US economic growth forecast increased from 1.6% to 1.8% for 2025, with a significant decline expected in 2024 at 2.8% [4] - OECD predicts US inflation for 2025 to be 2.7%, down from a previous estimate of 3.2% [5] Group 2 - US Treasury yields mostly declined, with 2-year yield down 0.7 basis points to 3.594% and 10-year yield down 1.2 basis points to 4.133% [1] - Global asset management firm East Spring noted that the Fed's dovish shift in September is likely to positively impact the rate market in the coming months [3] - Investors are focused on upcoming speeches from several Fed officials, including Chair Powell [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold investment rating: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Silver investment rating: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core View of the Report - Overnight, precious metals continued to be strong. Last week, the Fed implemented a risk - management rate cut, and Powell's cautious stance showed that inflation pressure still exists, and the geopolitical game situation is difficult to resolve. Attention should also be paid to the development of issues such as the US government shutdown and the Fed's independence. The demand for gold ETFs has increased rapidly. The medium - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged, but short - term caution is required. Tonight, attention should be paid to the preliminary value of the US SPGI manufacturing PMI in September and Powell's speech on the economic outlook [1] Summary by Related Information Fed Officials' Views - Fed's Bostic believes there is not much reason for further rate cuts and expects only one rate cut this year; Musalem thinks the room for further rate cuts is limited and will not support further rate cuts if inflation risks increase; Harker believes that policy restrictions should be lifted very cautiously, and his estimate of the neutral interest rate is relatively high; Milan believes that the appropriate interest rate is in the middle area of 2% and does not support adjusting the 2% inflation target [2] Fed Interest Rate Probability Forecast - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 10.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 89.8%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in December is 1.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 23.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 75.3% [2] Gold ETF Position - The holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased by 6.01 tons compared with the previous day, and the current holdings are 1000.57 tons, reaching the highest level since August 2022 [2]

Group 1 - The new Federal Reserve Governor, Milan, emphasizes the independence of monetary policy and bases decisions on objective economic data, advocating for a 50 basis point rate cut, which he was the only member to support [1][3] - Milan predicts that interest rates need to be lowered by more than 100 basis points by the end of the year, arguing that current rates are significantly above the neutral rate and that strict immigration policies will reduce housing demand and inflationary pressures [2][3] - Milan's stance on aggressive rate cuts may lead to market volatility, as he warns that prolonged deviation from the neutral rate could threaten employment targets [2][3] Group 2 - Milan's communication with Trump was limited to congratulations, with no discussion of voting intentions, reinforcing his commitment to independent economic data interpretation and alleviating concerns about political interference [4] - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari supports the current rate cut decisions, citing low risks of inflation from tariffs and viewing Milan's appointment as a routine personnel change, indicating continued public trust in the Fed's independence [5] - Milan's aggressive rate cut proposals could exert 5%-8% downward pressure on the dollar index in the short term, contradicting traditional views that high rates support the dollar, and potentially accelerating capital outflows to emerging markets [6]

Group 1: Market Reactions - Investors are assessing the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision and future rate cut paths, leading to increased market risk appetite and a rise in technology stocks [1] - The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index showed a significant rebound, indicating an improvement in regional manufacturing activity [1] - All three major U.S. stock indices closed at record highs, with the Dow Jones up 0.27%, S&P 500 up 0.48%, and Nasdaq up 0.94% [1] Group 2: Gold and Commodities - Following the Federal Reserve's rate cut, some investors chose to take profits, coupled with a rebound in the U.S. dollar index, putting downward pressure on gold prices [4] - As of the close, December gold futures were priced at $3678.3 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 1.06% [4] - International oil prices experienced a slight decline due to geopolitical tensions and weak U.S. crude demand, with light crude futures at $63.57 per barrel and Brent crude at $67.44 per barrel, both down 0.75% [13] Group 3: Company Developments - Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment to purchase Intel common stock at $23.28 per share, with Intel integrating Nvidia's graphics processing technology into its next-generation PC chips [6] - Following the announcement, Intel's stock surged over 22%, marking its largest single-day gain since October 1987, while Nvidia's stock rose approximately 3.5% [6] - Novo Nordisk's stock increased by over 6% due to significant weight loss results from its drug semaglutide [11]

Group 1 - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. dropped to 231,000, marking the largest weekly decline in nearly four years, down from 264,000 the previous week [1] - Despite the decrease in initial claims indicating no large-scale layoffs, the number of continuing claims remains above 1.9 million, indicating persistent concerns in the labor market [1] - The average duration of unemployment rose to 24.5 weeks in August, the longest since April 2022, suggesting increased difficulty for unemployed individuals to find new jobs [1] Group 2 - The labor market is described as a "strange balance" by the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, with both labor supply and demand weakening [1] - Job creation has significantly slowed, with an average monthly increase of only 29,000 jobs over the past three months, and non-farm payrolls in August only growing by 22,000, far below expectations [1] - The Federal Reserve recently announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, indicating that concerns over employment have surpassed inflation risks [1] Group 3 - The current economic situation is complex, with retail sales growth driven primarily by high-income households, while middle and low-income groups face significant inflationary pressures [2] - The widening wealth gap may lead to decreased sensitivity of consumption to policy changes, introducing new uncertainties in economic growth [2] - Structural contradictions in the labor market and inflation pressures present multiple challenges for the U.S. economy, requiring policymakers to find a difficult balance between a weak labor market and ongoing inflationary pressures [2]

Group 1 - Intel's stock surged over 22% following the announcement of a deal with Nvidia, where Nvidia will purchase Intel's common stock at $23.28 per share, totaling approximately $5 billion [1] - Intel plans to integrate Nvidia's graphics processing technology into its next-generation PC chips and provide processor support for data center products based on Nvidia hardware [1] - This partnership is seen as a crucial step for Intel to stabilize its funding chain after struggling in the high-performance chip market and receiving support from the US government and Japan's SoftBank [1] Group 2 - The Bank of England maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4% and indicated a cautious approach towards future rate cuts, which will depend on inflation pressures [1] - European stock indices rose across the board, with the UK FTSE 100 up 0.21%, France's CAC40 up 0.87%, and Germany's DAX up 1.35% [1] - Novo Nordisk's stock increased over 6% following positive trial results for its weight loss drug, semaglutide [1] Group 3 - International oil prices experienced a slight decline, with light crude oil futures closing at $63.57 per barrel, down 0.75%, and Brent crude oil futures at $67.44 per barrel, also down 0.75% [1] - Gold prices fell over 1% after the Federal Reserve's rate cut, with December gold futures closing at $3678.3 per ounce, down 1.06% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4%, aligning with market expectations, primarily due to persistent inflationary pressures [1] Inflation and Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by the UK National Statistics Office on the 17th of August shows that both year-on-year and month-on-month inflation rates met market expectations but remain significantly above the 2% inflation target [1] - Given the ongoing inflation rates exceeding the target and signs of fatigue in the labor market, international institutions widely predict that the Bank of England will not rush to lower interest rates [1]