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Core Insights - The article discusses the intensified competition between bulls and bears in the gold market, driven by weak ADP data and the anticipation of non-farm payroll data impacting market sentiment [1] Group 1 - The ADP data released indicates a slowdown in job growth, which may influence investor sentiment towards gold [1] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is expected to be a significant market mover, with potential implications for gold prices [1] - The article suggests that the future performance of gold will be closely tied to these economic indicators and market reactions [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Fed rate - cut expectations and the repair of the gold - silver ratio drive up silver prices, and tariff uncertainties support gold prices [2]. - The unexpected decline in US ADP employment data indicates a possible slowdown in non - farm employment growth, and the labor market remains resilient. Tonight's non - farm data is crucial for gold price trends. Higher - than - expected labor demand may boost wage growth and rate - cut expectations, thus lifting gold prices. Otherwise, the US dollar may strengthen and suppress gold prices [2]. - COMEX gold futures' net long positions in Q2 2025 hit a four - quarter low, and rising gold prices suppress speculative and physical demand for gold. However, in the long - term, US fiscal deficits and damaged dollar credit are positive for gold prices, and the dovish tone of Fed officials boosts silver's industrial properties, with the gold - silver ratio expected to converge [2]. - The operation suggestion is to adopt a buy - on - dips strategy. For the Shanghai Gold 2508 contract, focus on the range of 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2508 contract, focus on the range of 8700 - 9000 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 781.28 yuan/gram, up 5.24 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 8944 yuan/kilogram, up 197 yuan [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 175,461 lots, up 6,865 lots; those of Shanghai Silver are 272,055 lots, up 23,032 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract are 141,322 lots, down 1,842 lots; those of Shanghai Silver are 87,981 lots, down 3,833 lots [2]. - The gold warehouse receipts are 18,456 kilograms, unchanged; the silver warehouse receipts are 1,340,792 kilograms, up 2,133 kilograms [2]. 现货市场 - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price is 774.59 yuan/gram, up 1.69 yuan; the silver spot price is 8815 yuan/kilogram, up 81 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is - 6.69 yuan/gram, down 3.55 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 129 yuan/kilogram, down 116 yuan [2]. Supply - Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings are 947.66 tons, down 0.57 tons; the silver ETF holdings are 14,846.12 tons, down 22.89 tons [2]. - The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 195,004 contracts, down 5,644 contracts; those of silver are 62,947 contracts, down 4,227 contracts [2]. - The total quarterly supply of gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces [2]. - The total quarterly demand for gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global annual demand for silver is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.24%, up 0.28%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.85%, down 0.05% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 21.75%, up 0.21%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.76%, up 0.22% [2]. Industry News - The US assesses that Iran's nuclear facilities are destroyed, and the nuclear program is postponed by 1 - 2 years [2]. - Trump announces a trade agreement with Vietnam, with 20% tariffs on Vietnamese exports to the US and 40% on transshipment goods [2]. - The US House of Representatives advances Trump's tax - cut and spending bill [2]. - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 25.3%. In September, the probability of unchanged rates is 7.6%, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 69.7%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 22.8% [2]. - The market expects 110,000 new non - farm jobs in June, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%. The US ADP employment decreased by 33,000 in June, against an expected increase of 98,000 [2].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights an unexpected decrease in ADP private employment numbers for June, with a reduction of 33,000 jobs, significantly below the expected increase of 95,000, marking the first contraction in employment since March 2023 [1][3] - The weak labor market signals that even with tariff adjustments by the Trump administration, there has been no improvement in employment conditions [1] - Following the ADP report, some economists may lower their expectations for the upcoming employment report, and traders have increased bets on at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of 2025 [3] Group 2 - The likelihood of a rate cut in July has risen from approximately 20% to 27.4% after the ADP data release [3] - The ADP data, while not a perfect predictor, has shown over 70% consistency with the direction of monthly fluctuations in non-farm payrolls for 2024-2025, indicating potential downside risks for the upcoming non-farm data [3] - If the non-farm employment numbers fall below 150,000, it could strengthen expectations for a rate cut in September, which would be favorable for international gold prices [3] Group 3 - International gold prices have shown a rebound after three consecutive trading days, surpassing the critical level of $3,308 per ounce, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [3] - Key resistance levels for gold are noted at $3,360 per ounce, with a breakthrough potentially moving resistance to $3,446 per ounce, while support remains at $3,308 per ounce [3] - The market strategist suggests that the ADP data reinforces expectations of a cooling job market, but actual non-farm data may exceed expectations, leading to volatile market reactions [3]

Core Insights - The non-farm payroll (NFP) data release schedule for 2025 is crucial for investors, as it significantly impacts the gold market, especially amid current Federal Reserve monetary policy adjustments [1] - Understanding the economic logic and transmission mechanisms behind the NFP report is key to enhancing investment success rates [1] Group 1: NFP Data Release Schedule - The NFP data will be released on specific dates in 2025, with the first release on January 10 at 21:30 for December data [2] - Subsequent releases will occur on February 7, March 7, April 4, May 2, June 6, July 3, August 1, September 5, October 3, November 7, and December 5, with the July release moved to Thursday due to the Independence Day holiday [2] Group 2: Trading Strategies - Investors should focus on three key time points around the NFP release: 30 minutes before the release, 15 minutes after the release, and 1 hour after the release to gauge market reactions [1] - For risk-averse investors, it is advisable to close positions before the data release and wait for clearer trends, while experienced traders can leverage short-term volatility through buying or selling gold products [1] - The platform, Lingfeng Precious Metals, offers real-time information and trading services to help investors navigate market fluctuations following the NFP data release [2]

Group 1 - The non-farm payroll report serves as a "thermometer" for economic health and a "compass" for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, significantly impacting global financial markets and the Fed's decisions [1] - Strong non-farm data indicates a tight labor market, potentially increasing wage growth and inflation pressure, leading the Fed to consider interest rate hikes to prevent economic overheating [1] - Conversely, weak data suggests a slowdown in job growth, prompting the Fed to maintain accommodative policies to stimulate the economy, making non-farm data a key indicator for observing Fed policy trends [1] Group 2 - Investors using the Lingsheng Precious Metals platform can capture trading opportunities around non-farm data releases through real-time market data and a fast transaction system [2] - The platform supports a T+0 trading model, allowing investors to quickly close positions for profit after data releases, with continuous market analysis to aid rational decision-making [2] - The timing of non-farm report releases often creates short-term market volatility, providing profit opportunities for gold traders, with Lingsheng's stable trading environment facilitating precise investment opportunities [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, influenced by factors such as interest rate expectations, trade agreements, and market sentiment towards non-farm payroll data. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On July 1, gold prices opened at $3302.91 per ounce, reached a low of $3302.19, and peaked at $3357.90 before closing at $3338.71, marking a daily increase of $35.8 or 1.08% [1][3] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious due to mixed economic data, with expectations for non-farm payroll data influencing gold price movements [3][5] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The decline in the US dollar index and the anticipation of interest rate cuts have provided support for gold prices, despite some technical resistance [3][5] - The market is currently awaiting key employment data, including the Challenger job cuts and ADP employment figures, which are expected to be bearish for gold prices [5] Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials suggest a potential interest rate cut in July, which has bolstered bullish sentiment for gold [7] - President Trump's stance on not extending the July 9 trade negotiation deadline has raised concerns about trade agreements, further increasing market demand for safe-haven assets like gold [7] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates a bearish outlook for gold prices, but they remain above the 5-month moving average, suggesting a potential for further gains unless this support is broken [9] - Short-term technical indicators show that gold prices are facing resistance at the middle Bollinger Band, but support levels are present at various moving averages [10] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Suggested trading levels for gold include support at $3333 or $3320 and resistance at $3348 or $3360 [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rising value of gold due to a weakening dollar, increasing uncertainty around U.S. trade agreements, and heightened expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - Gold prices reached a three-day high of 3357.88, driven by global economic uncertainties and the market's anticipation of at least two rate cuts by 2025 [1] - The upcoming U.S. employment report is expected to influence U.S. Treasury yields, with potential implications for gold prices [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates a bullish short-term trend for gold, with MACD showing a bottom divergence and prices moving above previous resistance levels [3] - The suggested trading strategy includes buying gold on dips around the 3330-3335 range, with a stop loss at 3327 and a target of 3350-3360 [4] - Market participants are advised to monitor geopolitical risks that may drive safe-haven demand for gold [3]

Group 1 - Gold experienced a downward trend, reaching a low of 3245, influenced by optimistic trade agreements and stable geopolitical conditions, reducing its appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][4] - The market is expected to see significant changes this week, with attention on non-farm payroll data and central bank leaders' speeches, particularly from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [2][4] - The recent price movement of gold from May 30 to June 30 shows a cycle of highs and lows, with a peak at 3451 and a low at 3245, indicating a potential adjustment phase before a possible recovery [4][5] Group 2 - Domestic gold prices have also seen a significant decline, with Shanghai gold dropping from 793 to 762, but the bullish trend remains intact, suggesting a potential rebound if key support levels are maintained [6] - The focus for domestic gold this week is on support levels of 760 for Shanghai gold and 755 for Rongtong gold, with potential upward movement if these levels hold [6] - International silver has shown a rebound after two declines, maintaining a bullish trend, with support at 35.2 and targets at 36.5 and 37 for potential trading strategies [6][7] Group 3 - The Shanghai silver contract continues to exhibit a bullish trend, with key support at 8600 and targets at 8900 and 9000, indicating opportunities for long positions [7] - International crude oil has shown limited volatility after a significant drop, with a focus on the 64 support level for potential rebounds, while the medium-term outlook remains bullish [7][8] - Domestic fuel oil has undergone considerable adjustments but is still viewed as bullish in the long term, with expectations of reaching higher points around 3000 and 3200 [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The oil market shows short - term strength due to geopolitical and macro factors but faces medium - term pressure from OPEC+ production increases and the progress of the Iran nuclear deal [1]. - The styrene market is bearish in the medium term due to cost - side pressure and a supply - demand imbalance [7]. - The rubber market has a bearish medium - term outlook because of supply increases in the main producing areas and weak terminal demand [8]. - The synthetic rubber market is also bearish in the medium term due to raw material supply pressure and weak demand [12]. - The PX market has a relatively strong fundamental outlook in the short term, but the medium - term situation depends on the progress of maintenance and crude oil prices [18]. - The PTA market has weakened supply - demand conditions compared to before, and attention should be paid to crude oil prices [20]. - The PP market has weak demand in the off - season and an expected increase in supply, and cost fluctuations related to crude oil need to be monitored [22]. - The methanol market has medium - term pressure due to high domestic production and inventory accumulation, and investors should wait for short - selling opportunities [26]. - The PVC market has a bearish fundamental situation due to weak downstream demand and stable supply [27]. - The EG market has short - term support from supply tightening and demand, but the medium - term situation is uncertain [31]. - The plastic market is bearish in the medium term due to expected supply increases [34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: Medium - term supply surplus is expected due to OPEC+ production increases, but short - term prices are supported by geopolitical and macro factors. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Iran nuclear deal [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After breaking through the previous high of 470, the short - term structure has changed. The short - term strategy is to stop losses on short positions [3]. (2) Styrene - **Logic**: The cost side is under pressure as pure benzene inventory is at a 5 - year high, and the supply - demand situation is bearish with high supply and weak demand [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure level at 7270 is still valid. The short - term strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit reference of 7270 [7]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: The sharp drop in Thai glue prices verifies the supply increase after the start of the harvest season in the main producing areas, and terminal demand is weak [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure level is 14000, and the stop - loss reference for short positions is 13800 [10]. (4) Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The synthetic rubber market is affected by the expected increase in butadiene supply and weak demand from the tire industry [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure level is 11470, and the stop - profit reference for short positions is 11470 [14]. (5) PX - **Logic**: The short - term supply - demand situation is strong due to the restart of production and maintenance plans, but attention should be paid to the cost drive of crude oil [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to look for opportunities to short after the rebound ends [18]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: The supply has increased with the restart of maintenance devices, and the demand is relatively weak. There is no short - term inventory accumulation pressure, but the supply - demand situation has weakened compared to before. Attention should be paid to crude oil prices [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The upper pressure level is 4720, and the stop - loss reference for short positions is 4720 [20]. (7) PP - **Logic**: Demand is weak in the off - season, and supply is expected to increase due to new device production. Attention should be paid to cost fluctuations related to crude oil [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure level is 6980, and the stop - profit reference for short positions is 6980 [22]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: High domestic production and inventory accumulation lead to medium - term pressure on the market [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The short - term support level has risen to 2250. The strategy is to wait for short - selling opportunities after the price breaks through the support level [26]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: The downstream demand is weak due to the real - estate downturn, and the supply is at a normal level, resulting in a bearish fundamental situation [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure level is 4980, and the stop - loss reference for short positions is 4850 [27]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Supply has tightened due to domestic device maintenance and reduced imports, and demand from the polyester industry is acceptable in the short term. There is short - term support, and the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious [31]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure level has been lowered to 4335, and the stop - profit reference for short positions is 4335 [31]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: The short - term supply is relatively low due to device maintenance, but there is a large expected increase in supply in June and the second half of the year, so the medium - term outlook is bearish [34]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure level is 7120, and the stop - profit reference for short positions is 7120 [34].