Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for June showed an addition of 147,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 110,000, while the unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%. However, the private sector job growth was only 74,000, marking the smallest increase since October 2024 [3][5] - The rise in the U.S. dollar and bond yields has diminished market expectations for an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, thereby reducing the attractiveness of gold [4] - The Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate remains at 4.25%-4.5%. The strong non-farm data and potential inflationary pressures from the Trump administration's new policies increase the likelihood of the Fed maintaining a cautious stance [5][6] - The Trump administration's large tax cuts and spending bill, projected to add $3.4 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, may exacerbate inflationary pressures, although the current strong dollar and rising bond yields are temporarily overshadowing this [6] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that the gold market experienced a bullish trend at the beginning of the week, followed by a bearish reversal on Thursday, resulting in a doji candle that suggests indecision in the market [8] - Key support levels to watch include 3319, which aligns with the 60-day moving average, and 3311, the previous low. Resistance levels are identified at 3345 and 3350, corresponding to the 30-day and 20-day moving averages [9] - On the four-hour chart, after a drop to 3247, a strong upward movement was observed, but the price faced resistance at 3365/3366, entering an adjustment phase. Key support levels are at 3307/3306 and 3293/3292, while resistance levels are at 3345, 3354, and 3365/3366 [11]

Group 1 - The June non-farm payroll data in the U.S. showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 106,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% to 4.1% [3] - The strong employment data has diminished the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in July, with the probability dropping from 25% to 4% [3][4] - Market reactions included a decline in U.S. Treasury prices, with the 2-year and 5-year yields rising nearly 10 basis points, and the 10-year yield jumping to 4.34% [3] Group 2 - The report indicated that 73,000 of the new jobs were in state and local government, primarily in the education sector, while federal government jobs decreased by 7,000, suggesting that private sector growth was not as strong as anticipated [3] - Despite the strong employment figures, uncertainties remain regarding trade negotiations, and there are concerns about potential price pressures indicated by the services PMI [4] - The increase in U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar suggest that dollar-denominated assets may become more attractive, while gold and other safe-haven assets could face pressure [4]

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美国劳工统计局：4月份非农新增就业人数从14.7万人修正至15.8万人；5月份非农新增就业人数从13.9万人修正至14.4万人。4月和5月合计较上修1.6万人。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, leading to an increase in the US Dollar Index (DXY) which reached 97, reflecting a daily rise of 0.39% [1] - In response to the stronger dollar, spot gold prices fell sharply by $19, settling at $3,330 per ounce [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Non-farm payroll data was better than anticipated, contributing to the rise in the US Dollar Index [1] - The US Dollar Index (DXY) increased to 97, marking a daily gain of 0.39% [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Spot gold experienced a short-term decline of $19, with the price reported at $3,330 per ounce [1]

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Core Insights - The article discusses the intensified competition between bulls and bears in the gold market, driven by weak ADP data and the anticipation of non-farm payroll data impacting market sentiment [1] Group 1 - The ADP data released indicates a slowdown in job growth, which may influence investor sentiment towards gold [1] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is expected to be a significant market mover, with potential implications for gold prices [1] - The article suggests that the future performance of gold will be closely tied to these economic indicators and market reactions [1]