Core Insights - Emerging market banks have demonstrated resilience amid global volatility and geopolitical risks [1] Group 1 - The performance of emerging market banks is notably strong despite external challenges [1] - Factors contributing to this resilience include robust capital positions and improved asset quality [1] - The sector is expected to continue adapting to changing economic conditions and regulatory environments [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, indicating a potential false breakout and the importance of moving averages in determining market trends [4][6] - HSBC's report analyzes the driving forces behind gold's price movements, suggesting that while geopolitical risks and central bank demand support high prices, weakening physical demand and increasing supply may pressure prices in the future [8][10] - The report forecasts a trading range for gold prices in 2023 between $3,100 and $3,600 per ounce, with expectations of challenges in maintaining upward momentum due to various economic factors [8][10] Group 2 - The article highlights that gold's price failed to break the April high of $3,500 per ounce, indicating that the market may have fully priced in geopolitical risks [10] - The commentary suggests that the market's reaction to geopolitical events may have reached a saturation point, requiring more significant events to drive prices higher [10] - Upcoming events, such as the U.S. non-farm payroll data release, are expected to influence market sentiment and gold price movements, with a focus on the timing of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [11]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年07月01日17时01分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收涨1.47%，沪银主力收涨1.11%。①核心逻辑，短期中东地缘冲突缓和，经济衰退地缘异动风险 仍存；美国经济滞涨风险增加，美联储重新降息逻辑蓄势待发。②避险属性方面，特朗普对美日贸易谈判表示失望，贝森特警告将 提高关税。欧盟贸易执委本周将前往华盛顿与美国谈判，寻求达成公平协议。③货币属性方面，鲍威尔重申降息可以等待，美联储 正在研究关税影响。关税或仅是一次性冲击，但美联储需管理导致持久通胀的风险。美国5月消费者支出意外下降；通胀温和上 行，核心PCE物价指数环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨2.7%。目前市场预期美联储下次降息至9月，预期25年总降息空间涨至75基点左 右。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币升值利空国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震 荡偏强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。⑥本周有多项美国就业数据，目前市场预期走弱，建议关注数据超预期风险。 策略：稳健者观望，激进者逢低做多。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 表1 黄金相关数据： | ...

Group 1 - HSBC has significantly raised its gold price forecast for 2025 from $3015 to $3215 per ounce, and for 2026 from $2915 to $3125, reflecting a 7.2% increase [1] - The bank attributes the long-term value of gold to the evolving global risk landscape and rising sovereign debt, noting that gold's role as a safe-haven asset increases during economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions [1] - As of July 1, 2023, international gold prices are fluctuating around $3360 per ounce, with expectations that prices will range between $3100 and $3600 for the remainder of 2025, and a target price of $3175 by the end of 2025 [1] Group 2 - The report highlights a significant correlation between gold price movements and central bank purchasing behavior, indicating that if gold prices exceed $3300, central banks may slow their buying pace [2] - If gold prices retreat to around $3000, it could trigger a new wave of reserve asset allocation, while sustained prices above $3500 may lead to demand pressures in major consumer markets like India and China [2] - The market is closely monitoring U.S. policy developments, including potential tax reform and trade tensions, which could inject further uncertainty into the gold market [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The short - term trends of various steel - related products are mainly oscillatory, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, profit margins of steel mills, and macro - political and economic situations [2][3][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures rebounded after a decline. Thread demand is short - term stable, production is rising, and inventory depletion is slowing. Hot - rolled coil demand is falling, production remains high, and inventory is slightly accumulating. Blast furnaces still have profits, and hot - metal production is relatively high, alleviating the negative feedback expectation. The downstream industries have problems such as lack of infrastructure recovery sustainability and poor real - estate indicators. The demand expectation is pessimistic, and the production - restriction expectation during the September event supports the futures. It will be mainly oscillatory in the short term [2] Iron Ore - Iron ore futures fell today, and the basis has narrowed recently. The global iron - ore shipment has declined, and there is an expectation of further decline in the future. The domestic arrival volume has decreased but will remain relatively high in the short term, and port inventory has stabilized and increased. Terminal demand in the off - season is as expected, steel mills' profitability is okay, and hot - metal production is high with low willingness to cut production. Geopolitical risks have decreased, and Sino - US trade has shown signs of further relaxation. The fundamentals have little change, and it will be mainly oscillatory in the short term [3] Coke - Coke prices declined during the day. There is an expectation of price increase, but production profits are meager, and daily production is falling from the annual high. Overall inventory has decreased, and traders' purchasing willingness is still low. The carbon - element supply is abundant, and hot - metal production in the off - season has not declined, bringing some optimistic expectations. The futures price has rebounded and is at a premium. It will be mainly oscillatory under inventory pressure [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices declined during the day. Policy may strengthen the control of over - production, affecting production. Coking - coal mine production has been falling, and some mines have reduced production due to environmental inspections. The spot auction market has slightly improved, and terminal inventory has continued to decline. The carbon - element supply is abundant, and hot - metal production in the off - season has not declined, bringing some optimistic expectations. The futures price is at a premium. It will be mainly oscillatory under inventory pressure [6] Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices declined. Due to previous production cuts, inventory has decreased, but weekly production is rising, and inventory is increasing again. The long - term manganese - ore inventory is increasing, and currently, the inventory level is low, increasing the price - holding intention of manganese mines. The spot resources of Comilog oxidized ore are scarce, and the price has slightly increased. It is recommended to try short - selling on rebounds [7] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices declined. Hot - metal production remains above 242. Export demand is about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased, and secondary demand remains high. Supply is decreasing, market transactions are average, and on - balance - sheet inventory is decreasing, but production - end inventory is increasing. Some producers may adopt a trading model to help destock. It is recommended to try short - selling on rebounds [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite ongoing trade tensions and economic weakness, Canada's main stock index outperformed the U.S. benchmark index in the first half of the year, driven by record increases in gold prices [1] - As of June 30, the S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 8.6% year-to-date, surpassing the S&P 500's 5.5% increase during the same period, with a 15% increase in U.S. dollar terms [1] - Investors have flocked to gold and precious metal mining stocks as a hedge against risks from U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, contributing to the rise of the Toronto index [1] Group 2 - Four out of the top ten performing stocks in the first half were precious metal stocks, with Agnico Eagle Mines and Wheaton Precious Metals among them, and Lundin Gold leading with a nearly 135% increase [3] - There is uncertainty about whether the gold-led rally will continue in the second half of the year as geopolitical and trade risks have diminished, leading to a decline in gold prices [3] - Despite the challenges, there are other growth opportunities in Canadian stocks, as global investors are injecting funds into the Toronto Stock Exchange due to its high exposure to materials, energy, and financial sectors [3] Group 3 - The new Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is advocating for a pro-investment and growth-oriented economic agenda, which could positively impact the market [4] - The S&P/TSX Composite Index has a price-to-earnings ratio of 17, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 24, indicating potential valuation opportunities [4] - There is a fundamental story based on government policy changes and a valuation story for Canadian stocks, suggesting a favorable investment environment [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have seen a significant pullback after reaching a historical high of $3,500 per ounce on April 22, 2025, with geopolitical factors and central bank purchases continuing to support gold, but prices may be nearing a peak due to weakening physical demand, increased supply, and a slower-than-expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][6][12]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Total gold supply is projected to increase from 4,950 tonnes in 2023 to 5,190 tonnes in 2025, driven by mine production and old gold scrap recovery [2]. - Jewelry demand, which constitutes about half of global gold consumption, is expected to decline significantly, with a 21% year-on-year drop in Q1 2025 to 380.3 tonnes [21]. - Investment demand remains strong, with gold ETFs seeing a net increase of 7.94 million ounces in 2023, reaching 90.79 million ounces [14]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Geopolitical risks have historically supported gold prices, but the market's response may have reached saturation, as evidenced by the failure to surpass the April high following tensions with Iran [6]. - The Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts are expected to be less aggressive than previously thought, which could negatively impact gold prices [12]. - Global trade growth is projected to slow, with only a 1.8% increase expected in 2025, which typically supports gold prices [9]. Group 3: Central Bank Purchases and Future Projections - Central bank demand for gold remains robust, with purchases expected to total 955 tonnes in 2025, although this is lower than previous years [28]. - HSBC has raised its average gold price forecast for 2025 to $3,215 per ounce, with a trading range of $3,100 to $3,600 per ounce [2]. - The forecast for gold prices in 2026 is set at $3,125 per ounce, indicating a potential decline in price momentum [2].

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos expressed concerns about the euro's exchange rate, stating that a rise above 1.20 against the dollar could complicate monetary policy, while the current range of 1.17 to 1.20 is manageable [1] - The euro has appreciated by 13.8% against the dollar this year, reaching a high of 1.1755 on June 30, primarily due to concerns over U.S. tariff policies and a crisis of confidence in dollar assets [1] - ECB President Christine Lagarde previously described the euro's strong performance as "counterintuitive but reasonable," indicating that the exchange rate is just one of many factors in policy considerations [1] Group 2 - Within the Eurozone, there are differing views on the exchange rate; Latvian central bank Governor Martins Kazaks warned that rapid euro appreciation could create dual deflationary pressures by lowering import costs and weakening export competitiveness [4] - Lithuanian central bank Governor Gediminas Šimkus also cautioned against the speed of unilateral appreciation, which could disrupt inflation control targets, despite the current exchange rate not breaching historical ranges [4] - In contrast, German central bank Governor Joachim Nagel expressed confidence in the current euro exchange rate, viewing it as close to long-term averages and emphasizing that the management board is more focused on overall inflation dynamics rather than a single exchange rate indicator [4] Group 3 - The ECB has broken its silence on exchange rate discussions, which is rare, especially after initiating a monetary easing cycle in June 2024 and lowering benchmark rates eight times since then [4] - The central challenge for the ECB is balancing inflation reduction with economic growth amid expectations of further rate cuts in September [4] - De Guindos highlighted the need to be vigilant about trade protectionism and geopolitical risks that could impact price stability, particularly the potential lagging effects of U.S. tariff policies on the European economy [4][5] Group 4 - As the July 9 deadline for tariff exemptions approaches, uncertainty remains in U.S.-EU trade negotiations, with the ECB predicting inflation could stabilize at the 2% target by 2027, but short-term risks are skewed to the downside [5] - The volatility of the euro exchange rate is not only a focal point for financial markets but also serves as an important indicator for the ECB's policy direction [5] - De Guindos emphasized that exchange rate issues should be viewed within a broader economic fundamentals framework, highlighting the importance of monitoring all factors affecting inflation [5]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 黄金铂金比创下50年来最大两个月跌幅 走势——而无论如何，这都意味着未来数月美股前景显著恶化。 赫伯特上一次提及该比率是在3月初，当时市场普遍预测新一轮熊市降临，但因黄金铂金比彼时处于强 劲上升趋势，其追随者仍保持看涨，事实证明他是对的。标普500指数此后累计上涨约8%。 过去数年的大部分时间里，该比率一直处于稳定上升趋势，但自4月中旬以来，铂金价格飙升超40%而 黄金持稳略跌，导致黄金铂金比骤降，这对股市短期前景而言绝非吉兆。 研究作者称，该比率之所以能成为良好的短期市场择时指标，是因为它是地缘政治风险的敏感替代指标 ——尽管黄金和铂金均具工业用途且往往在经济强劲时上涨，但黄金与地缘政治风险存在相关性。因此 当该比率下跌时，意味着市场认为经济相对地缘风险而言更为强劲。 人们可能会对此感到惊讶：为何黄金铂金比下跌暗示市场前景黯淡？若经济相对地缘风险更强，难道不 是好事吗？要理解这一问题，需区分该比率作为同步指标与领先指标的差异：作为同步指标，比率下跌 时股市往往表现优于平均水平，这正是我们过去两个月所经历的；而作为领先指标时，情况则相反—— 当比率下跌时，投资者对先前高企 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that iron ore prices are experiencing a downward trend, with the main futures contract reported at 707.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.46% [1] - As of July 1, the total iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China is 144.65 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons from the previous week [2] - Satellite data shows that from June 23 to June 29, 2024, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil is 12.38 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 188,000 tons, indicating a relatively low inventory level since the second quarter [2] Group 2 - According to Everbright Futures, the mismatch between overseas supply and domestic demand has supported iron ore prices, which are expected to remain strong as long as steel mills maintain profitability and high iron water production [3] - Guotou Anxin Futures notes that iron ore shipments globally have decreased compared to the same period last year, with both Australian and Brazilian shipments declining, while non-mainstream countries have seen a rebound [3] - The macroeconomic environment shows a decrease in geopolitical risks and signs of easing trade tensions between China and the U.S., leading to improved market sentiment [3]