整体来看，美联储降息引发的美元走软、通胀持续、美债收益率下滑以及地缘政治风险交织，共同驱动黄金价格触及月高，白银创下历史纪录。随着下周非 农数据揭晓和地缘局势演变，黄金市场或迎来年末更多动荡，交易者关注下周即将公布的10月及11月非农数据 基本面： 周五（12月12日）亚盘时段，现货黄金守住隔夜强势突破后盘踞高位，目前暂交投于4270美元附近。在全球经济不确定性笼罩下，黄金作为传统避险资产再 次闪耀光芒。周四（12月11日），随着美联储连续第三次降息25个基点，黄金价格强势反弹，现货黄金上涨1.2%，触及每盎司4285.75美元的逾一个月高 点，而白银更是创下每盎司64.31美元的历史新高。这一轮贵金属行情的爆发，不仅源于美元走软和通胀压力持续，还受到了即将公布的非农就业报告以及 全球地缘政治动荡的推动。投资者们正密切关注这些因素如何交织影响黄金的未来走势。 美元指数的走软是黄金价格触及高点的另一关键推手。降息后，美元指数一度跌至98.13的近两个月低点，美国以外国家的利率预期正转向鹰派，这凸显了 美联储的相对鸽派立场，进一步拖累美元。美元贬值直接降低了以美元计价的黄金对海外买家的成本，刺激了国际需求。此外， ...

在被问及"美方扣押委内瑞拉油轮后，美国对委行动是否仍仅聚焦毒品问题"时，美国总统特朗普表示， 美方应对举措涉及"远不止毒品"，并称委内瑞拉向美国输入大量罪犯。 特朗普称，美国"正在采取强有力行动"，并表示边境地区的毒品运输已下降92%。在回应中，特朗普进 一步暗示美方可能升级行动范围，称"行动很快就会从海上延伸至陆地"，但未透露具体细节。 【最新黄金t+d行情解析】 摘要今日周五(12月12日)亚盘时段，黄金T+D目前交投于965元附近，截至发稿，黄金T+D暂报963.40元/ 克，涨幅0.90%，最高触及964.88元/克，最低下探951.00元/克。目前来看，黄金T+D短线偏向看涨走 势。 今日周五(12月12日)亚盘时段，黄金t+d目前交投于965元附近，截至发稿，黄金t+d暂报963.40元/克，涨 幅0.90%，最高触及964.88元/克，最低下探951.00元/克。目前来看，黄金t+d短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 上海黄金t+d早盘开盘于951.50元/克，随后震荡上行，盘中最高触及964.88元/克，截至发稿报962.50元/ 克，涨幅0.81%。从技术面看，金价成功突破955元/克的关键阻 ...

能力不在脸上，本事不在嘴上！在投资的路上我不敢保证能带你赚多少，因为只要你配合，盈利从来没 有上限，每一位学员我都用自己最大的能力为其谋取利润，如果你还沉迷亏损，那我无话可说，但是若 想盈利，请找我金晟富，有实力才能这么自信！（有缘认识是一种缘分，多一个朋友也不会让你损失什 么，先看实力再谈合作，你赢我陪你君临天下，你输我陪你东山再起！)需要带单的朋友，可在博主个 人简介寻找联系！ 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周四(12月11日)国际黄金价格从近一周高位回落，因美联储发布分歧明显的降息决议，使投资者对明年 宽松节奏的不确定性加剧；与此同时，白银继续刷新历史新高。截至发稿，现货黄金下跌0.4%，至 4,210.88 美元，此前一度触及12月5日以来最高水平4247美元。黄金从 4,200 美元关口附近略有反弹，但 目前仍维持看跌倾向。美元在前一日美联储决议后大幅下跌至 10 月 24 日以来最低水平后吸引部分买 盘，收复部分跌幅。这反而限制了黄金利用盘中温和上涨刷新周内高点的能力。不过，由于市场押注美 联储将进一步降息，美元上行空间似乎有限，而这继续为无收益资产的黄金提供支撑。此 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices (XAU/USD) are under pressure due to a slight rebound in the dollar and positive risk appetite, despite supportive factors from dovish Federal Reserve expectations and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [1][2][3] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points and the expectation of only one more rate cut by 2026 have created a mixed sentiment in the market, with investors remaining cautious about future rate cuts [2][3] - Geopolitical risks, particularly related to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to provide a floor for gold prices, limiting aggressive bearish bets from traders [2][3] Group 2 - Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data, including weekly jobless claims and trade balance figures, which could provide new momentum for gold trading [3] - Short positions in gold should be cautious and wait for prices to break below the $4200 level before establishing new positions [4] - The gold bulls need to see sustained support above the $4245-$4250 supply zone for further upward movement, with potential resistance at $4277-$4278 and the $4300 level being key targets [6]

俄乌停火谈判的缓慢进展使地缘政治风险依然存在，可能会阻止交易者在该商品上进行激进的看跌押 注，并限制更深的损失。据《每日电讯报》报道，美国总统特朗普告诉乌克兰总统泽连斯基，他必须在 圣诞节前接受他的协议，结束与俄罗斯的战争。 摘要周四(12月11日)欧盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4210一线上方，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报4214.80美元/ 盎司，下跌0.29%，最高触及4247.50美元/盎司，最低下探4203.73美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短线偏 向震荡走势。 周四(12月11日)欧盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4210一线上方，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报4214.80美元/盎 司，下跌0.29%，最高触及4247.50美元/盎司，最低下探4203.73美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短线偏向 震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 乌方已就结束冲突的基本文件拟定20点核心立场，强调总体安全是经济安全与商业环境保障的前提。会 谈同时敲定后续联系机制，泽连斯基表示乌方将全力推进工作以争取实质成果。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 金价自昨晚高点4248美元回踩，经过五个小时的下行修正后，价格于亚市尾盘触及1小时60周期均线支 撑而反弹，目前价格再次站 ...

Core Viewpoint - Record leasing rates and tariff concerns have led to unprecedented trading volumes, prompting investors to increase their allocation in precious metals for portfolio diversification, while adjusting the ratio of silver to gold [1] Group 1: Silver vs. Gold Performance - Over the past 12 months, silver prices surged by 92%, while gold saw a rise of approximately 56% [2] - Silver reached a 13-year high of over $35 per ounce in early June and has now approached a historical peak of nearly $63 [2] - The strong performance of silver has reignited discussions about whether it can become a reliable alternative to gold [6][7] Group 2: Investment Demand and Market Dynamics - Investment demand for silver has significantly increased, with exchange-traded product (ETP) holdings rising by about 18% as of November 6 [2][3] - The net supply-demand balance for silver is at its tightest level on record, with ETF demand increasingly impacting this imbalance [3] - The U.S. government's designation of silver as a critical mineral has added uncertainty, as details on subsequent actions are still awaited [4] Group 3: Economic Factors Influencing Precious Metals - Lower interest rates, particularly following a recent 25 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve, are expected to benefit precious metal prices [5][6] - The correlation between the Federal Reserve's easing policies and the demand for both gold and silver suggests that silver may also gain from these conditions [5][6] - The industrial demand for silver, driven by sectors such as solar energy and electric vehicles, is contributing to its strong market performance [7] Group 4: Long-term Perspectives on Silver - Silver has historically been viewed as a substitute for gold, but its recent performance has outpaced that of gold [7] - The structural supply gap in the silver market, which has persisted for five years, shows little sign of resolution, further enhancing its appeal to investors [7] - Despite silver's rising profile, reserve asset managers have not yet recognized it as a viable long-term holding, indicating a potential barrier to its acceptance as a true alternative to gold [7]

Core Viewpoint - Record leasing rates and tariff concerns have led to unprecedented trading volumes, prompting investors to increase their allocation in precious metals for portfolio diversification, while adjusting the ratio between silver and gold [1] Group 1: Silver's Performance - Over the past 12 months, silver prices have surged by 92%, compared to a 56% increase in gold prices [2] - Silver reached a 13-year high of over $35 per ounce in early June and has now approached a historical peak of nearly $63 [2] - The CEO of the Silver Institute noted that 2025 is expected to be a dramatic year for the silver market, with record prices and unprecedented liquidity tightness [2] Group 2: Investment Demand - Investment demand for silver has significantly increased, with ETP holdings rising by approximately 18% as of November 6 [2][3] - The net supply-demand balance for silver is currently at its tightest level on record, with ETF demand increasingly impacting this imbalance [3] - The decision to classify silver as a critical mineral by the U.S. government has added uncertainty, as details on subsequent actions are still awaited [4] Group 3: Economic Factors - Lower interest rates, following a recent 25 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve, have been beneficial for precious metal prices, including silver [5][6] - The correlation between the Federal Reserve's easing policies and the demand for silver is significant, with industrial demand also playing a crucial role [7] Group 4: Silver as an Alternative to Gold - The rapid rise of silver relative to gold has reignited discussions about whether silver is becoming a reliable substitute for gold [7] - Silver's strong performance is attributed to rising industrial demand and a structural supply gap that has persisted for five years [7][8] - While silver is increasingly viewed as an alternative to gold, reserve asset managers historically have not considered silver worthy of long-term holdings [8]

Group 1 - Silver TD is currently trading above 14324, with an opening price of 14290 and a current price of 14405, reflecting a 1.32% increase. The highest price reached was 14649, while the lowest was 14062, indicating a short-term oscillating trend [1] - The daily chart shows that Silver TD experienced a sharp rise in the morning, currently remaining at a high level. The Bollinger Bands indicate a weakening bullish momentum, suggesting caution for potential pullbacks, while still maintaining a bullish sentiment. Key support levels are noted at 13500-14000, with resistance levels at 14500-15000 [3] Group 2 - U.S. President Trump announced the seizure of a large oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela, marking it as the largest tanker ever seized. The vessel was reportedly heading to Cuba but had been anchored near Venezuela since loading its cargo [2] - The U.S. has increased military pressure on Venezuelan President Maduro, with Trump stating that Maduro's time is running out and not ruling out the possibility of a ground invasion. The White House has initiated significant military deployments in the Caribbean and has controversially targeted vessels suspected of smuggling to the U.S. [2] - The ongoing crisis in Venezuela has heightened geopolitical risks and increased safe-haven sentiment in the market [2]

行业预计明年国际油市供给过剩或加深，油价将进一步下行。 今年，国际油价在55美元-80美元/桶区间震荡运行。年初至今，国际油价已跌去近两成。 回顾2025年的原油市场走势，除了年内两波源自地缘担忧驱动的脉冲式上行之外，国际油价整体走弱。在行业人士看来，供需基本面过剩、地缘风险趋缓、 宏观经济预期变化带来的市场动荡三大因素相互交织，是推动油价大幅下跌的主要原因。 与此同时，美洲五国等非欧佩克产油国供应亦在增长。据兴业证券研报，年初以来，非欧佩克+供应增加了310万桶/天。其中，美国、加拿大、巴西、圭亚 那、阿根廷等美洲五国已增产230万桶/天，预计2026年全年供应仍将大致维持当前水平。 不过，需求侧全球主要经济体经济数据表现不尽如人意，给原油市场带来较沉重打击。董秀成举例称，美国10月零售销售数据环比下降0.3%，显示出美国 消费者的消费意愿和能力正在减弱；欧元区11月的制造业PMI初值仅为43.8，连续17个月处于荣枯线以下，表明欧洲制造业正处于萎缩。中国经济虽稳定增 长，但10月原油进口量却环比降超5%，能源转型下，工业、交通运输等关键领域对原油需求的增长正在放缓。 "全球油市供过于求担忧正显著升温。"金 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-12-11 美联储如期降息25基点，启动"技术性扩表" 市场分析 国内政策预期升温。11月14日国务院常务会议，研究深入实施"两重"建设有关工作，部署增强消费品供需适配性进 一步促进消费政策措施。11月24日，国家发展改革委价格司组织召开价格无序竞争成本认定工作座谈会。11月28 日，工信部组织召开动力和储能电池行业制造业企业座谈会，强调认真落实党中央关于综合整治"内卷式"竞争的 决策部署，加快推出针对性政策举措，依法依规治理动力和储能电池产业非理性竞争。数据方面，中国10月出口 （以美元计价）同比下降1.1%，前值增8.3%，进出口数据受工作日天数减少以及节前抢出口影响，前期的"抢出口" 和"抢进口"有待消化，同时10月投资、消费和工业的增速也出现不同程度放缓，国内经济基础有待夯实。中国11 月官方制造业PMI环比回升至49.2，高技术制造业PMI连续10个月位于临界点50以上，受高基数影响非制造业PMI 小幅回落。中国11月外贸增速大幅回升，以美元计价出口同比转增5.9%，进口同比增1.9%；稀土出口环比增长26.5%， 大豆进口环比降14.5%。中共中央政治局会议明确指出，明 ...