作者 2026 年 1 月 26 日 日本央行按兵不动，地缘风险扰动全球市场 ——海外宏观周报（2026.1.19-2026.1.25） | | | 名称 | 2026/1/25 | 一周涨跌幅 | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 作者 | | 上证指数 | 4136 | 0.84% | 4.22% | | 东方金诚 研究发展部 | | 深证成指 | 14440 | 1.11% | 6.76% | | | | 标普 500 | 6916 | -0.35% | 1.02% | | 分析师 徐嘉琦 | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 49099 | -0.53% | 2.15% | | | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23501 | -0.06% | 1.12% | | 执行总监 冯琳 | 股市 | 英国富时 100 | 10143 | -0.90% | 2.14% | | | | 德国 DAX | 24901 | -1.57% | 1.68% | | | | 法国 CAC40 | 8143 | -1.40% | -0.08% | | | | 日经 225 | ...

1月26日，据媒体援引OPEC+多位代表消息，该组织预计将在本周日举行的月度会议上，决定延续当前产量政策，三月份或继续停止增产。 面对全球原油市场结构性过剩与多地地缘局势紧张并存的复杂环境，OPEC+大概率将坚持其在去年11月首次宣布的第一季度产量冻结安排。核心 成员国沙特阿拉伯与俄罗斯将牵头此次视频会议，对相关决议进行审议。 今年以来，受地缘风险与部分产油国供应波动支撑，布伦特原油价格小幅上行，周一徘徊于每桶65美元附近。然而当前油价仅较去年11月初 OPEC+宣布"暂停增产"时高出约1美元，凸显市场在季节性需求放缓与供应调节之间的脆弱平衡。 地缘风险尚未影响供应 近期伊朗发生大规模示威并遭强力应对，但迄今未影响该国石油生产。据央视新闻，近日，伊朗因物价上涨和货币贬值爆发示威活动，多地发生 骚乱，造成人员伤亡。伊朗最高国家安全委员会9日发表声明说，在美国和以色列策划和控制下，此次抗议活动演变为对国家安全的破坏。 与此同时，在特朗普政府强行控制前领导人马杜罗后，为协助重振委内瑞拉经济，其原油近一年来首次恢复对欧洲出口。据央视新闻，当地时间1 月14日，一位美国政府官员透露，美国已完成首批委内瑞拉石油的销售。这 ...

日内可留意美国11月耐用品订单月率及美国1月达拉斯联储商业活动指数等数据，市场预期偏向利空金 价，但预计压力有限，受周末局势风险推动，包括特朗普称美国将取得格陵兰岛美军基地所在区域"主 权"、美航母打击群已抵达印度洋； 伊朗官员称伊武装力量已进入全面戒备状态、美参议院民主党誓言 阻挠国土安全部拨款，政府停摆风险再起等等，将会在短期内持续对金价产生利好，故此，周内金价将 继续保持看涨上行，下方将关注布林带上轨支撑和5日均线支撑位再度的入场点。 基本面上，根据张尧浠言论：就今年1月目前，金价涨超16%以上，先是特朗普批准对委内瑞拉采取军 事行动以推翻马杜罗政权，引发拉美地缘政治危机升级；之后通过司法部对美联储主席鲍威尔展开调 查，以政治压力逼迫美联储加速降息，增强了市场对于美联储政策独立性的担忧；并在此之后又更以购 买格陵兰岛为由，威胁对欧盟加征额外关税，再度点燃跨大西洋贸易摩擦的导火索。助力金价强势攀 升。 展望后市，短期内这些因素都难以逆转，另外，年内仍处于美联储降息周期之中，持续下行的利率水平 将会大幅削弱了政府债券、货币市场基金等低风险资产的吸引力，而间接利好黄金需求。 影响上，周初受美国总统特朗普在格陵 ...

受伊朗大范围动荡以及哈萨克斯坦、俄罗斯实施供应限制影响，今年以来国际油价小幅走高，周一布伦 特原油期货报每桶约66美元。不过当前油价仅较去年11月初高出1美元——彼时OPEC+宣布一季度暂停 增产，并称此举是为应对季节性需求放缓。 伊朗国内爆发示威活动，当局对抗议者实施严厉的弹压，不过目前该国石油行业尚未受到任何影响。与 此同时，委内瑞拉原油近一年来首次运往欧洲。 责任编辑：李肇孚 OPEC+代表表示，受全球原油供应过剩及地缘政治风险频发影响，该组织预计在周日召开会议时，维 持下月原油产量稳定的计划。 以沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯为首的核心成员国将召开月度视频会议，审议去年快速恢复产能后于11月首次敲 定的一项决议——今年一季度维持产量冻结状态。 四位不愿具名的代表表示，他们预计相关政策将维持不变，不过其中两人补充称，成员国间尚未就此展 开讨论。 一名代表指出，目前尚无迹象表明需要对本月成员国委内瑞拉和伊朗境内发生的动荡事件作出回应。但 另一名代表称，若出现大规模供应中断，石油输出国组织及其合作伙伴或会提高产量。 OPEC+代表表示，受全球原油供应过剩及地缘政治风险频发影响，该组织预计在周日召开会议时，维 持下月原油 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have historically surpassed $5,000 per ounce, reaching $5,100, with a rise of over 2%, significantly boosting related ETFs [1] Group 1: Gold and Silver Market Dynamics - Silver also broke the $100 mark prior to gold surpassing $5,000 [3] - The silver market is experiencing a textbook short squeeze, with extreme positioning in the COMEX futures market, where commercial short positions reached approximately 90,000 contracts and speculative net long positions exceeded 25,000 contracts [7] - Physical delivery constraints are evident, with global deliverable silver inventories at a ten-year low, and record monthly delivery volumes expected in 2026 [7][9] - The market is witnessing a "spot premium," indicating a clear signal of physical shortages [7] - Major Wall Street firms, including JPMorgan, have shifted from being significant shorts to net longs, marking a critical phase in the squeeze [7] - Silver prices have surged over 40% since early 2026, outpacing gold's gains [7] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Silver has faced a supply deficit for five consecutive years, with the expected shortfall in 2026 projected to reach approximately 7,000 tons [9] - The demand for silver is driven by sectors such as photovoltaics, AI data centers, and electric vehicles, alongside government policies recognizing silver as a critical mineral [9] - Approximately 70% of silver production comes as a byproduct of mining for other metals, limiting supply flexibility [9] Group 3: Macro-Economic Influences - The rising gold and silver prices are underpinned by macroeconomic narratives, including hedging against dollar credit risk, geopolitical risks, and inflation [13][14] - Significant net inflows into gold ETFs reached $34.7 billion in 2025, a 220% increase from 2024, driven by geopolitical tensions [15] - Central banks globally purchased a record 1,287 tons of gold in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of purchases exceeding 1,000 tons [19] Group 4: Investment Outlook - Major investment banks have raised their gold price targets, with Goldman Sachs increasing its 12-month target from $4,800 to $5,500, citing geopolitical risk premiums and sustained central bank demand [23] - Morgan Stanley and Bank of America have also revised their forecasts upward, indicating a strong consensus on bullish sentiment in the gold market [23] - The overall market consensus suggests that the gold bull market is driven not only by economic growth or inflation but also by collective distrust in the stability of the current international political and economic order [24] Group 5: Investment Vehicles - Gold ETFs, such as 华夏 (518850) and 黄金股ETF (159562), are highlighted as cost-effective investment tools with low fees of 0.2%, significantly lower than the market average [27]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the unprecedented surge in gold prices, which have surpassed $5,000 per ounce for the first time, leading to significant increases in related ETFs [2][30]. Group 1: Gold and Silver Market Dynamics - Gold prices reached a record high of $5,100 per ounce, with a rise of over 2%, positively impacting gold ETFs [2][3]. - Silver has experienced a textbook-style short squeeze, with extreme positioning in the COMEX futures market, where commercial short positions reached approximately 90,000 contracts, while speculative net long positions exceeded 25,000 contracts [9]. - The physical delivery segment for silver is under pressure, with global deliverable silver inventories at a ten-year low, indicating a fierce competition for physical silver [9]. - The price of silver has increased by over 40% since the beginning of 2026, outpacing gold's performance [10]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The silver market has faced a structural supply shortage for five consecutive years, with the expected shortfall in 2026 projected to be around 7,000 tons [12]. - The demand for silver is driven by sectors such as photovoltaics, AI data centers, and electric vehicles, while approximately 70% of silver production comes as a byproduct of mining other metals, limiting supply flexibility [12]. Group 3: Investment Trends and Institutional Behavior - There has been a significant inflow of funds into gold-related ETFs, with a net inflow of $34.7 billion in 2025, a 220% increase from 2024 [22]. - Major institutions, including Bridgewater and BlackRock, have increased their positions in gold ETFs, reflecting a strategic shift towards gold assets amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties [23]. - Central banks globally purchased a record 1,287 tons of gold in 2025, with China alone increasing its gold reserves by 287 tons, highlighting the ongoing demand from institutional investors [24][28]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - The article discusses the macroeconomic narratives driving gold and silver investments, including risks associated with the U.S. dollar, geopolitical tensions, and inflation concerns [16][19]. - Recent geopolitical events have intensified the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with significant actions taken by various countries that contribute to market instability [17][18]. - Investment banks have raised their gold price targets, with Goldman Sachs predicting a price of $5,500 per ounce within 12 months, driven by geopolitical risk premiums and central bank demand [30][31]. Group 5: Investment Vehicles and Cost Efficiency - The article emphasizes the low fee structure of gold ETFs, such as the 华夏 ETF (518850) and 黄金股 ETF (159562), both having a fee rate of 0.2%, significantly lower than the market average of 0.6% [39]. - These ETFs provide investors with efficient access to gold and gold-related equities, supporting T+0 trading and offering a diversified exposure to the gold market [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 26, the London gold price broke through the $5000 per ounce mark, with other precious metals also rising significantly. The fundamentals supporting the precious metals sector are solid, and long, medium, and short - term technical indicators all point to an upward trend. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish view on precious metals trading. However, due to the short - term sharp rise and large inflows of investment funds, there are risks of short - term adjustments, so investors are advised to reduce positions, go long with a light position, and maintain high flexibility [5][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Performance - As of 9:10 am Beijing time on January 26, London gold was reported at $5048 per ounce, with a year - to - date increase of 17% and a cumulative increase of 143% since the mid - term upward trend started in March 2024. London silver was reported at $107 per ounce, with a year - to - date increase of 50%. Platinum and palladium had year - to - date increases of 38% and 28% respectively [5] 3.2 Long - term Factors - The changing global landscape and Sino - US competition have increased geopolitical risks, impacting the global political, economic, trade, and monetary systems. The resulting safe - haven demand and the need for reserve diversification have continuously pushed up the fluctuation center of gold prices. Trump 2.0's policies have further accelerated the restructuring of the global system, consolidating the long - term bull market for gold [5] 3.3 Medium - term Factors - Trump's radical reform measures have suppressed economic growth momentum in the US and globally. Weak economic growth requires more economic stimulus measures, leading to loose central bank policies and liquidity premiums, making gold prices strong in the medium term [5] 3.4 Short - term Factors - **Re - evaluation of strategic value**: In November 2025, the USGS added 10 minerals to the "2025 Critical Minerals List", including industrial precious metals such as silver, platinum, and palladium. There is also a risk that the Trump administration may impose tariffs on the import of these metals [8] - **Increased geopolitical risks**: In 2026, Trump 2.0's new policies will shift the focus to the military field, significantly increasing geopolitical risks and adding safe - haven demand for the precious metals sector [9] - **Economic outlook and policy expectations**: The international trade situation has eased, and the Fed has restarted the interest - rate cut process. The economic growth prospects in the US and globally are expected to improve in 2026, boosting the industrial demand expectations for industrial precious metals but weakening the safe - haven demand for gold. However, Trump's pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates has added market expectations of further rate cuts and liquidity premiums to the precious metals sector [10]

期货研究报告 2026年01月26日 周报 原油期货：地缘风险仍在、油价偏强 师秀明 投资咨询从业资格号：F0255552 shixiuming@nzfco.com 报告导读： | 原油 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SC原油期货 | 元/桶 | 441.90 | 438.80 | 3.10 | 0.71% | 日度 | | 阿曼原油现货 | 美元/桶 | 62.63 | 62.79 | -0.16 | -0.25% | 日度 | | 布伦特原油期货 | 美元/桶 | 66.29 | 64.20 | 2.09 | 3.26% | 日度 | | WTI原油期货 | 美元/桶 | 61.29 | 59.44 | 1.85 | 3.11% | 日度 | | 美国原油产量 | 千桶/日 | 13580 | 13753 | -173 | -1.26% | 周度 | | 美国原油库存 | 千桶 | 426049 | 422477 | 3572 | 0.85% | 周度 | ...

(一)地缘政治：短期情绪导火索 中东冲突持续升级，美伊紧张加剧，红海航运受阻推高能源与大宗商品波动，资金涌入贵金属避险。 格陵兰岛争端、东欧局势反复，全球风险偏好下降，白银作为 "平民黄金"，成为中小资金避险的高弹 性选择。 地缘风险推升通胀预期，叠加避险买盘，进一步强化白银的抗通胀与避险双重属性。 (二)货币政策：美元走弱与降息预期强化 美联储官员上周密集释放 "鸽派" 信号，暗示 2026 年降息 3 次，市场预期 3 月或开启降息周期，美元指 数跌破 100 关口，以美元计价的白银吸引力大增。 美国财政赤字高企(2025 年达 3.2 万亿美元)，美元信用弱化，全球央行增持黄金、白银以分散储备，私 人资金跟风配置。 实际利率下行预期明确，降低白银持有机会成本，推动 ETF 与期货资金流入。 (三)工业需求：新能源与科技驱动爆发 光伏是核心增量：2025 年全球光伏用银量达 7560 吨，较 2022 年翻倍;2026 年预计全球光伏装机 600 吉 瓦，新增用银约 6 万吨，银浆需求刚性上涨。 新能源汽车、AI 数据中心、5G 基站等领域用银量持续增长，工业需求占白银总需求超 50%，成为中长 期核心支 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 周一，燃料油跳空高开高走，日内最大达涨幅超5%，相关能化品一并走强。美国总统特朗普22日表 示，一支"庞大舰队"正在前往中东地区海域。美国福克斯新闻网此前报道，随着与伊朗紧张关系升级， 美国正在向中东地区增派兵力，其中包括至少一艘航空母舰，同时将在该地区部署更多的导弹防御系 统。据参考消息网援引路透社1月23日报道，一名伊朗高级官员23日说，伊朗将把任何袭击都当作"针对 我们的全面战争"对待。作为全球高硫燃料油主要出口地，中东局势升温再次引发市场供应端的担忧情 绪，燃料油价格随之大涨，短期继续关注伊朗局势进展。 基本面来看，供应方面，哈萨克斯坦部分油田由于电力分配系统出现问题后暂停生产，预计时间持续1- 2周，这将减少通过里海管道联盟的原油出口。需求方面，IEA最新月报将全球原油石油需求上调了19.4 万桶/日至93万桶/日，预计2026年全年全球原油市场过剩量约为370万桶/日，供应过剩程度略有收窄。 国内炼厂需求方面，我国1月高硫燃料油进口量预计在80万吨，同比下降28万吨。当前市场缺乏单边趋 势的强劲驱动，供应充足和高库存的现实，限制了油 ...