每经AI快讯，9月16日，美元指数盘中跌至97.226，为7月24日以来最低水平。 ...

格隆汇9月16日｜美元指数DXY亚市早盘持续走低，一度跌至7月24日以来的低点97.226，现报97.25。 ...

Group 1 - The market has fully priced in the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week [1] - The U.S. Court of Appeals rejected Trump's request to remove Fed Governor Cook, clearing the way for Cook to attend this week's Fed meeting, which may witness internal divisions within the Fed [1] - U.S. Treasury yields have declined, the U.S. dollar index has fallen, and cryptocurrencies have experienced widespread declines, while gold has reached a new high and oil prices have increased [1] Group 2 - The mainland stock market has risen, with Hong Kong's consumer discretionary, energy, and staple consumer sectors leading the gains, while materials, conglomerates, and real estate construction sectors have declined [1] - Biotech, lithium batteries, and smart terminals have performed well, with southbound funds net buying 14.473 billion HKD [1] - In A-shares, electric equipment, media, and agriculture sectors have seen the largest increases, while conglomerates, telecommunications, and defense industries have declined [1] Group 3 - Non-metallic building materials, energy, and iron ore prices have risen, while the yield on RMB government bonds has slightly increased, and the RMB has appreciated slightly [1]

Group 1: Market Performance - Major tech stocks experienced a broad rally, with Google rising over 4% and becoming the fourth U.S. publicly traded company to surpass a market capitalization of $3 trillion. Tesla and Oracle also saw increases of over 3% [3] - Popular Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closing up 0.87%. Li Auto increased over 6%, Bilibili over 5%, NIO over 4%, Xpeng over 2%, and Alibaba, Pinduoduo, and NetEase each rose over 1% [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Expectations - The Federal Reserve is set to hold a monetary policy meeting this week, with market expectations for a resumption of the easing cycle significantly increasing. According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut this week is 95.9%, while a 50 basis point cut is at 4.1% [3] - The dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, fell by 0.26%, closing at 97.300 [3] - Increased expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have driven international gold prices higher, with spot gold rising 1% during the session, surpassing $3680 per ounce, setting a new historical high [3] Group 3: Political Influence on Monetary Policy - Former President Trump stated on Truth Social that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell must cut rates now, and by a larger margin than he envisions. Analysts suggest that the key question for the Fed's meeting on Wednesday is whether it will counter the market's expectations for consecutive rate cuts [4] - Goldman Sachs' Chief U.S. Economist David Mericle indicated that the key issue for the September FOMC meeting is whether the committee will suggest that this could be the beginning of consecutive rate cuts, expecting the statement to mention a softening labor market but not change policy guidance or imply a rate cut in October [4] Group 4: Trade Policy Changes - The Trump administration announced a reduction in import tariffs on Japanese cars to 15%, effective from 12:01 AM Eastern Time on the 16th [4] - Japan's Ministry of Finance reported that from April to June, Japan's exports to the U.S. declined for three consecutive months due to U.S. tariff policies, with the decline rate expanding. Following negotiations, Japan and the U.S. reached a trade agreement to lower the auto tariff rate [5]

新华财经纽约9月15日电美元指数15日下跌。 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.26%，在汇市尾市收于97.300。 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1769美元，高于前一交易日的1.1741美元；1英镑兑换1.3605美元，高 于前一交易日的1.3570美元。 1美元兑换147.32日元，低于前一交易日的147.49日元；1美元兑换0.7942瑞士法郎，低于前一交易日的 0.7959瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3778加元，低于前一交易日的1.3839加元；1美元兑换9.2722瑞典克朗，低 于前一交易日的9.3218瑞典克朗。 （文章来源：新华社） ...

Group 1 - The macro growth factor continues to rise, while inflation indicators show a weakening rebound, with domestic CPI turning negative at -0.4% and PPI's decline narrowing to -2.9%, indicating persistent internal demand issues [4] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are driving upward global liquidity expectations, benefiting Asian equity markets, with the Korean Composite Index rising by 5.94% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 5.31% [4][9] - The A-share market shows a preference for growth styles, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index increasing by 5.48%, while small-cap indices outperform large-cap blue chips [4] Group 2 - Recommendations for asset allocation include favoring high-grade credit bonds in the bond market, adjusting duration flexibly, and focusing on bank and insurance sector movements [5] - In the overseas equity market, the report suggests monitoring interest rate-sensitive sectors due to limited short-term rebound potential for the dollar and significantly raised interest rate cut expectations [5] - For gold, it is recommended to increase allocations to gold and silver as they are core assets during the interest rate cut cycle, with expectations for Shanghai gold to break previous highs [5] Group 3 - The report indicates that the overall liquidity environment remains supportive for market valuation recovery and structural trends, with a significant decrease in average daily trading volume in the A-share market [56] - The A-share valuation levels have increased, with the price-to-earnings ratio rising to 50.38 times and the price-to-book ratio reaching 5.60 times, suggesting that market expectations for future corporate earnings may be overly optimistic [60] - The report highlights that the earnings expectations for A-shares are weaker than historical averages, with a projected rolling one-year earnings growth rate of 10.3% and revenue growth rate of 5.9% [61]

新华财经上海9月15日电（葛佳明） 中国外汇交易中心公布数据显示，9月12日当周三大人民币汇率指数全线下跌，CFETS人民币汇率指数报96.6，按周跌 0.17；BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数报102.39，按周跌0.31；SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数报91.12，按周跌0.21。 | 指数名称 | 当日指数 | | --- | --- | | CFETS人民币汇率指数 | 96.60 | | BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数 | 102.39 | | SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数 | 91.12 | 图片来源：中国外汇交易中心截图 上周（9月8日至12日）美元指数在低位维持窄幅波动，连续第二周录得收跌，全周累计跌0.12%，收于97.62。非美货币上周表现不一：日元跟随美元走势， 上周先涨后跌，最终小幅收跌0.17%；欧元上周继续维持在年内高位震荡，最终小幅收涨0.15%；英镑小幅收涨0.35%。 "展望未来，人民币汇率大概率延续稳健走势。"工银国际首席经济学家程实认为，一方面，我国经济结构转型持续深化，消费升级、科技创新和绿色转型不 断孕育新的增长动能，为国际收支与资本市场提供了坚实支撑；另一方面，在政策协同发 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has shown a strong rebound, breaking historical resistance levels and reaching new highs, with expectations for continued upward movement despite some short-term fluctuations [1][3][6]. Price Movement - Gold prices opened the week at $3579.93 per ounce, hitting a low of $3578.09 before rebounding to a weekly high of $3674.36, ultimately closing at $3642.15, marking a weekly increase of $54.64 or 1.47% from the previous week's close of $3589.51 [3][4]. - The weekly price fluctuation was $96.27, indicating significant volatility in the market [3]. Influencing Factors - The rebound in gold prices was driven by weak U.S. labor data and expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, alongside a significant downward revision of U.S. employment data [3][6]. - The market faced pressure from a strong U.S. stock market and negative expectations from the U.S. CPI data, which led to profit-taking and a subsequent price drop [3][4]. Future Outlook - The outlook for gold remains bullish, with expectations that if the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance, gold prices could easily surpass $3700, potentially reaching $4000 [6][7]. - The market is anticipated to experience continued upward momentum due to ongoing expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which would further support gold prices [6][7]. - The geopolitical and economic uncertainties, along with the U.S. government's tax and tariff policies, are expected to enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6][7]. Technical Analysis - The gold market is currently in a bullish phase, having broken through historical highs, and is expected to continue this trend over the next year, with potential targets of $4200 or higher [7][8]. - Short-term technical indicators suggest a potential for price corrections, but the overall trend remains positive, with key support levels to watch [8][10].

Core Insights - The recent strengthening of the RMB against the USD is driven by multiple factors, including signals from the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts and strong domestic stock market performance [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a clear signal for interest rate cuts at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference, reinforcing expectations for a September rate cut [1] - US employment and inflation data have strengthened the anticipation of a rate cut, leading to a decline in the US dollar index, which provides passive appreciation momentum for non-USD currencies [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The domestic stock market has shown strength, resulting in accelerated foreign capital inflows, which have increased demand for currency exchange and improved market sentiment [1] - The central bank's management of the RMB's midpoint rate has played a significant role in maintaining a stronger RMB [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - In the short term, the RMB is expected to continue operating on a stronger trajectory, with future attention needed on the movements of the USD and the central bank's control over the RMB midpoint rate [1]

"6月下旬CFETS（中国外汇交易中心）等三大人民币汇率指数降至年内低点后，中间价调控力度开始加 大。这不仅推动了人民币对美元汇率上升，其主要目标更是引导一篮子货币人民币汇率指数适度上 行。"王青认为，这背后或与年初以来国内经济走势偏强，美元大幅下跌，而人民币对美元汇率虽有所 升值但未能与之充分匹配有关。 中信证券首席经济学家明明认为，近期人民币对美元汇率的升值，主要受到美元指数偏弱运行创造的相 对温和的外部环境、央行中间价报价释放较强汇率预期引导，以及近期国内权益市场表现亮眼、吸引外 资流入等内外因素共振的驱动。 短期内，王青预计，综合各类影响因素，人民币汇率仍将处于偏强运行状态。未来需重点关注美元走势 和人民币中间价调控力度。 明明则认为，人民币汇率有望保持偏强的态势，并逐步回归"三价合一"。随着年底临近，若人民币汇率 能维持偏强震荡，预计相关结汇需求将继续支撑人民币汇率。 （文章来源：证券日报） 8月下旬以来，人民币对美元汇率保持稳中偏强态势。 Wind资讯数据显示，8月21日以来截至9月13日（北京时间，下同），在岸人民币对美元汇率上涨 0.79%，而更多反映国际投资者预期的离岸人民币对美元汇率则上涨 ...