国：zhanlu @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522110001 日雷 ☎: 010-8092-7780 反内卷成效初现,美国加密货币法案通过 宏观周报（7 月 14 日-20 日） 2025 年 7 月 20 日 分析师 张迪 ☎：010-8092-7737 ☑: zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 詹璐 ☎: 0755-8345-3719 ☑: lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080002 赵红蕾 ☎：010-8092-7606 网: zhaohonglei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060005 于金潼 ☎: 186-5320-7096 网: yujintong_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080003 铁伟奥 ☎：136-8324-0373 网: tieweiao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525060002 研 ...

Group 1 - Beef prices in the U.S. have surged significantly, with ground beef prices increasing by 12% year-over-year and premium steak prices rising by 8%, marking historical highs [1][3] - The U.S. cattle herd is at its lowest level in 72 years, with only 86.7 million head of cattle reported, leading to increased reliance on beef imports, which exceed 4 million pounds annually [3] - Tariffs imposed on Brazilian beef, a crucial component of the American diet, threaten to disrupt supply chains, as U.S. meat processors blend imported lean beef with domestic fatty beef for products like hamburgers [3][4] Group 2 - The agricultural sector in the U.S. is facing challenges, with 90% of tomatoes and significant portions of fresh fruits and vegetables being imported, highlighting vulnerabilities in domestic production [3] - The impact of tariffs extends beyond beef, affecting various food items such as coffee and orange juice, which are heavily sourced from Brazil, indicating a broader "food inflation" crisis [4] - The current trade policies are pushing key suppliers like Brazil to seek new markets, potentially destabilizing the U.S. food supply chain and increasing costs for consumers [3][4]

Group 1 - The core argument of the article is that the implementation of the "reciprocal tariff" policy by the Trump administration is likely to initially drive up inflation in the U.S., with the potential for future deflation depending on the economic conditions [1][2][3] - The article discusses the divergence in market opinions regarding the impact of high tariffs on U.S. price levels, with mainstream views suggesting that tariffs will push inflation up through import cost transmission, while others argue that it may suppress economic growth and lead to deflationary pressures [2][3] - Historical evidence shows that while tariffs can create cost-push inflation, significant economic contractions can lead to stronger deflationary forces, as seen during the Great Depression and the 2018 trade tensions [3][10] Group 2 - The current economic environment suggests that tariffs are more likely to trigger inflation rather than directly cause deflation, due to three main factors: the relative health of the U.S. economy, the significant increase in tariff rates with limited import substitution options, and a relatively weak dollar [7][8][9] - Inflationary pressures began to manifest in May 2025, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a slight increase, and further price increases are expected as the tariff policy is fully implemented [11][12] - The article notes that the price increases may not be one-time events, as the uncertain and gradual nature of the tariff implementation could lead to sustained inflationary expectations among businesses and consumers [16][17] Group 3 - Other factors influencing inflation include expansionary fiscal policies, such as the "Big and Beautiful" act, which is expected to significantly increase the federal deficit and support inflation levels, and stricter immigration policies that may lead to labor shortages and rising wage costs [19] - Conversely, potential downward pressures on inflation could arise from spending cuts and slowing economic growth, with the International Monetary Fund and OECD lowering their GDP growth forecasts for the U.S. [20]

Core Viewpoint - The impending 50% tariff on copper imports announced by the U.S. government is causing significant anxiety in the market, particularly among major copper producers and industrial users [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Market Reaction - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting August 1, 2025, as stated by President Trump [1]. - Maximo Pacheco, chairman of Chile's state copper company, warns that this tariff is creating market uncertainty [1][3]. - There is ambiguity regarding whether the tariff applies to refined copper, semi-finished products, or copper ore, leading to confusion among mining companies and industrial users [3]. Group 2: Industry Concerns and Economic Impact - Executives express concern over the tariff's implications, with potential negative effects on key U.S. industries such as electric vehicles, data centers, and defense [3]. - Analysts warn that the tariff could lead to significant cost increases across various sectors, as copper is widely used in electronics, automotive, construction, and data centers [4]. - The U.S. consumes nearly half of its copper from imports, primarily from Chile, making the economy vulnerable to tariff-induced cost pressures [4].

美联储发布的最新经济状况褐皮书显示，5-7月期间美国经济略有增长，然而不确定性令企业决策趋于 谨慎，关税影响下物价压力或在夏末显现。 未来一周，7月份美国制造业和服务业PMI将受到外界关注。市场仍在试图评估特朗普关税政策对经济 造成的损害程度，尽管最近的数据表明，到目前为止经济表现相对较好，对价格的影响也有限。荷兰银 行认为，由于美国关税制度的最终形态仍悬而未决，最近温和的通胀趋势显然无助于减少特朗普贸易政 策对通胀最终影响的不确定性。 本周看点颇多，欧美经济体7月采购经理人指数PMI将发布，外界将寻找特朗普关税政策的影响。欧洲 央行决议将是另一个亮点，预计在连续七次降息后利率将保持不变。在亚洲，市场关注日本上议院选 举，这可能会挑战石破茂首相的职位，并影响与美国的贸易谈判。新执政联盟可能会推动积极的财政宽 松和减税，使其央行实现政策正常化的道路变得复杂。 明星科技股财报来袭 其他值得关注的指标包括6月新屋销售、成屋销售、耐用品订单月率，初请失业金人数等。 在8月1日对等关税生效的最后期限之前，外界将继续等待美国与其他经济体关税协议的任何消息。 特斯拉、谷歌拉开明星科技股业绩序幕。 上周国际市场风云变幻，美股 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. tariffs on foreign products will ultimately burden American consumers, as stated by the head of a Bulgarian essential oil production company [1] Company Summary - The Bulgarian essential oil producer operates 250 hectares of lavender fields and produces approximately 20 tons of lavender oil annually, with the majority intended for export [1] Industry Summary - U.S. President Trump announced a 30% tariff on EU products effective from August 1, which is expected to impact the essential oil industry and its consumers [1]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rebounded in June, indicating cost pressures from tariffs are being passed to consumers, but overall inflation remains moderate [1] - The Eurozone's June inflation rate was reported at 2.0%, up from 1.9% in May, returning to the European Central Bank's (ECB) medium-term target [5] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.59% this week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.07% [1] - The Nasdaq increased by 1.51%, and the Russell 2000 index saw a 0.23% rise [1] - In Europe, the STOXX 600 index decreased by 0.06%, while the DAX 30 index rose by 0.14% [1] Group 3: Cryptocurrency and Commodities - Bitcoin reached a new historical high of $123,000 this week [3] - Brent crude oil futures fell by 1.61%, and WTI crude oil futures dropped by 3.54% due to trade tensions affecting demand [3] - Gold futures closed at $3,355.50 per ounce, down 0.25%, while silver peaked at $39 per ounce before retreating [3] Group 4: Company Earnings and Expectations - Tesla is expected to report Q2 earnings with anticipated revenue between $22 billion and $23 billion, a 12% year-over-year decline [6] - Google is projected to report Q2 revenue between $93.6 billion and $94.2 billion, reflecting an 11% year-over-year increase [7] - Analysts have mixed ratings for Tesla and Google, with Tesla facing challenges in its Robotaxi and FSD initiatives, while Google is under scrutiny for its advertising revenue and AI impacts [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The passage of the GENIUS Act in the U.S. House of Representatives has created significant turbulence in the global cryptocurrency market, marking a pivotal moment for the industry with strict regulations on stablecoins [1][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The GENIUS Act mandates that all stablecoin issuers must hold reserves in a 1:1 ratio with U.S. dollars or short-term U.S. Treasury securities, requiring monthly public disclosures of their assets [1]. - Non-bank entities wishing to issue stablecoins must obtain a special license, while major banks are granted expedited access to the new market [1][3]. - A critical provision in the act states that stablecoins can only be used for payment settlements and cannot be classified as securities or commodities, aiming to bypass traditional banking systems [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the act's passage, Ethereum surged by 7% to over $3,600, while Bitcoin surpassed $120,000, with other cryptocurrencies like XRP and Dogecoin also experiencing significant gains of over 10% [3]. - However, the market also saw a dramatic fallout, with 160,000 investors liquidated within 24 hours, resulting in $585 million lost, and the largest single liquidation amounting to $23 million [3]. Group 3: Future Projections - U.S. Treasury Secretary predicts that the stablecoin market could grow to $2 trillion by 2028, significantly exceeding the current $250 billion market size, which would compel stablecoin issuers to purchase large amounts of U.S. Treasury securities [3]. - Major tech companies like Apple and PayPal are accelerating their entry into the payment sector, potentially sidelining algorithmic stablecoins that lack transparency [3]. Group 4: Political and Institutional Dynamics - Trump's personal meme coin has reportedly generated $350 million, and his family-associated stablecoin USD1 has seen a 40% increase in circulation following the act's passage [4]. - The Federal Reserve has expressed strong opposition to Trump's plans to allow $9 trillion in 401k funds to flow into the cryptocurrency market, with key Fed officials warning that such policies could lead to inflation [4]. - The SEC and CFTC are engaged in a jurisdictional dispute over the classification of cryptocurrencies as either securities or commodities, which could lead to a redefinition of major cryptocurrencies [6]. Group 5: Institutional Responses - Major banks like JPMorgan and Citigroup are quickly establishing digital asset departments, although skepticism remains regarding the market demand for stablecoins from some banking executives [6]. - Despite doubts, the stock price of Circle (issuer of USDC) has surged by 25% in two weeks, and inquiries from Goldman Sachs clients have tripled, indicating strong interest in digital assets [6].

（美国牛肉价格走势图） 最新数据显示，6月份，美国的牛肉价格创下历史新高。 其中，碎牛肉平均价格为每磅6.12美元，比去年上涨近12%；未加工牛肉牛排的平均价格为每磅11.49美元，较 去年上涨8%。这并不是最近才出现的现象，过去20年来，美国牛肉价格一直在稳步上涨。 有分析指出，美国牛肉行业面临着一系列挑战，其中最根本的原因是牛群数量的减少。此外，美国的贸易政 策，特别是美国总统特朗普任内实施的关税政策，也对牛肉价格产生长期影响。 如果特朗普政府的这些关税长期存在，将迫使美国肉类加工商支付更高的进口成本，这势必会推高最终消费者 支付的价格。美国纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯近日表示，美国的关税政策，或将美国通胀率推高1个 百分点。 美国牛肉价格创新高 牛肉价格的持续上涨，已经成为美国消费者面临的重要挑战。据美联社7月18日报道，根据6月的数据，牛肉价 格已经达到了历史新高。6月份，美国碎牛肉平均价格比去年上涨近12%，未加工牛肉牛排的平均价格上升 8%。 报道指出，牛肉的涨价不仅发生在今年。实际上，由于供给紧张与需求强劲，过去20年来，美国牛肉价格一直 在攀升。因为牛的供应仍然紧张，而牛肉一直很受欢迎。 ...

7月19日，在岸人民币对美元夜盘收盘报7.1758，较上一交易日夜盘收涨51个基点；离岸人民币对美元 报7.1813元，较上一交易日纽约尾盘涨31点。 7月18日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.1498，下调37.00点。 近期，人民币中间价不断释放稳定信号。多家外资行交易员和策略师表示，面对8月1日"对等"关税的不 确定性，人民币中间价的逆周期因子已经非常小，但仍存在接近200个点的调节幅度，显示了中国央行 一定的呵护意愿。但即期交易顺应了近期强美元的逻辑，下半年人民币汇率将继续受到美元指数走势的 影响。 年中，重磅发布会接踵而至。7月14日、15日，国务院新闻办举行两场新闻发布会，邀请中国人民银行 副行长邹澜、国家统计局副局长盛来运，分别介绍上半年货币信贷政策执行及金融统计数据情况、上半 年国民经济运行情况。邹澜在会上表示，当前，美元走势仍然有不确定性，但中国国内基本面持续向 好，人民币汇率保持双向浮动、基本稳定具有坚实的基础。【此前报道：】 邹澜提出，各方面对美联储的货币政策变化非常关注，近期美国经济增速有所放缓，但物价水平仍然高 于美联储的目标水平，关税政策进一步增加了美国通胀走势的不确定性，影响美联储降息 ...