FICC日报 | 2025-12-11 美联储如期降息25基点，启动"技术性扩表" 市场分析 国内政策预期升温。11月14日国务院常务会议，研究深入实施"两重"建设有关工作，部署增强消费品供需适配性进 一步促进消费政策措施。11月24日，国家发展改革委价格司组织召开价格无序竞争成本认定工作座谈会。11月28 日，工信部组织召开动力和储能电池行业制造业企业座谈会，强调认真落实党中央关于综合整治"内卷式"竞争的 决策部署，加快推出针对性政策举措，依法依规治理动力和储能电池产业非理性竞争。数据方面，中国10月出口 （以美元计价）同比下降1.1%，前值增8.3%，进出口数据受工作日天数减少以及节前抢出口影响，前期的"抢出口" 和"抢进口"有待消化，同时10月投资、消费和工业的增速也出现不同程度放缓，国内经济基础有待夯实。中国11 月官方制造业PMI环比回升至49.2，高技术制造业PMI连续10个月位于临界点50以上，受高基数影响非制造业PMI 小幅回落。中国11月外贸增速大幅回升，以美元计价出口同比转增5.9%，进口同比增1.9%；稀土出口环比增长26.5%， 大豆进口环比降14.5%。中共中央政治局会议明确指出，明 ...

宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 12 月 11 日 每日报告 日内行情： 金价基本上完全定价美联储本周继续降息 25BP 的利多消息，但市场也担心 2026 年美联储将显著放缓甚至结束降息进程，鹰派降息的潜在利空使得黄金缺乏 上涨动能，与此同时市场继续关注新任美联储主席提名人选对美联储货币政策倾 向的潜在影响，关注本周三美联储议息会议对 2026 年货币政策的指引；全球供需 连年供不应求叠加 2026 年全球经济增长前景改善，驱动白银价格持续偏强运行， 隔夜伦敦白银突破 60 美元/盎司关口而金银比值也跌破 87。中短期内多空因素交 织 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products, including crude oil, styrene, rubber, and others. It suggests that geopolitical factors are likely to be the main drivers of the market in December. While some products show short - term positive trends, others face supply - demand imbalances and potential risks. Overall, it advises different trading strategies for each product based on their fundamentals and technical analysis [3][5]. 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - **Logic**: Supply - demand and macro drivers have a weak impact on the market. The mid - term supply surplus is the main trend, but the market still trades based on supply - demand changes. Macro factors are short - term positive, and geopolitical factors are likely to be the main drivers in December. Short - term bullish but difficult to trade due to geopolitical risks; mid - term, look for shorting opportunities after a pulse - type upward movement [4][5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation. Today, it decreased slightly with reduced positions, and the short - term structure remains unchanged. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [5]. Styrene - **Logic**: Short - term supply decreased due to increased maintenance after a significant profit decline, and inventory reduction supported the rebound. However, further upward movement requires support from the cost side (crude oil). Mid - term, the port inventory is at a five - year high, and there is a high probability of inventory reaching a new high in February if the demand remains weak after the New Year [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillation structure. Today, it corrected with increased positions, and the structure became unclear. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [9]. Rubber - **Logic**: There is no major contradiction in the short - term. Tire demand is unlikely to increase significantly, and the supply side is in the peak tapping season in Southeast Asia. The inventory in Qingdao is seasonally increasing, and there is no obvious upward or downward driver. Consider it as an oscillating market [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation. Today, it increased with reduced positions, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [10]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The core factor is the raw material butadiene. The price of butadiene is low recently, leading to short - term improvement in supply - demand and reduced pressure. However, there is still a risk of liquid chemical inventory over - filling in the mid - term due to high supply and inventory [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation. Today, it increased with increased positions, and the hourly - level remains in an oscillating state. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [12]. PX - **Logic**: The overseas spread has weakened significantly, and the anti - seasonal US aromatics blending oil logic has ended, reducing the upward driving force. However, the supply - demand of PX is still relatively strong among energy - chemical products. Pay attention to the impact of the cost side (crude oil) [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it continued to correct with reduced positions, but the short - term upward structure remains unchanged. The hourly - level support is at 6700. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss at 6700, and look for secondary entry opportunities for non - entered long positions after the correction ends [17][18]. PTA - **Logic**: The overseas spread has weakened significantly, and the anti - seasonal US aromatics blending oil logic has ended, reducing the upward driving force. PTA continues to reduce inventory, and the short - term supply - demand pressure is not large. Pay attention to the cost side [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it tested the short - term support with reduced positions, and the short - term upward structure remains unchanged. The hourly - level support for the 01 contract is at 4620. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss at 4620 (01 contract), and look for secondary entry opportunities for non - entered long positions after the correction ends [18]. PP - **Logic**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. The supply - demand is still weak without a reversal driver. Be vigilant about short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [21]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it decreased with reduced positions. The short - term downward structure remains, and the short - term pressure above is at 6220. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [21]. Methanol - **Logic**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and downstream demand is stable but weak. The port inventory has been decreasing, but the rate of decrease slowed down last week, and the inventory is still at a high level. The upward space is limited, and the previous upward driving force has ended. No longer consider short - term long positions [23][25]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the short - term is in an oscillation. Today, it oscillated within the day, and the short - term structure is unclear. The 05 contract is weaker than the 01 contract, indicating high inventory pressure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [25]. PVC - **Logic**: There are few future maintenance plans, and high production is maintained. However, the profit has declined, and there are more expectations of production cuts. The demand side (downstream real estate) is not optimistic, and the social inventory is at a high level. The supply - demand has no upward reversal driver, but the valuation is low, so there is no value in chasing short positions [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it decreased with reduced positions. Pay attention to the short - term pressure above at 4445. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: The previous domestic maintenance devices have resumed production, and new production capacity has been put into operation, increasing the supply pressure. Downstream polyester demand is stable, and the inventory accumulation pattern continues. The supply - demand driving force is downward. Be vigilant about short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. Pay attention to the short - term pressure above at 3720. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [30]. Plastic - **Logic**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. The supply - demand is still weak without a reversal driver. Be vigilant about short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. The short - term pressure above is at 6670. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [32]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern continues, and the downstream glass production lines have cut production, suppressing the demand for soda ash. Although the fundamental downward driving force remains, the cost - performance of holding short positions is reduced [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it decreased with reduced positions, and the downward structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure above has moved down to 1120. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions in the hourly cycle cautiously with a stop - profit at 1120 [35]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Supply production is at a high level, and the weekly production has increased year - on - year, reaching a new high. It is the off - season for traditional downstream demand, and the demand from alumina has weakened due to reduced production. The inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks, reaching a new historical high year - on - year. The supply - demand driving force is downward without a reversal, but there is no space to chase short - positions before an obvious rebound [37]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it rebounded with reduced positions, and the downward structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure above is at 2135. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals showed high - level differentiation. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed up 0.26%, Shanghai Silver's main contract closed up 5.44%, platinum's main contract closed up 1.08%, and palladium's main contract closed up 1.08% [1] - In the short - term, trade - war - related避险 has subsided, but geopolitical risks remain. The US job market is weakening, inflation is moderate, and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts [1] - The possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates has increased. The US economic activity has changed little, but the government shutdown has suppressed demand in many places. The market is waiting for more economic data. Currently, the market expects an 80%+ probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December [1] - It is expected that in the short - term, gold will be weak and silver strong, platinum will be strong and palladium weak. In the medium - term, they will fluctuate at high levels, and in the long - term, they will rise step - by - step [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly increased [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Market Performance - Shanghai Gold's main contract closed up 0.26%, Comex gold's main contract closed at $4236.60 per ounce, up 0.40% from the previous day, and London gold closed at $4198.00 per ounce, up 0.23% from the previous day [1][2] - The closing price of Shanghai Gold's main contract (SHFE) was 956.40 yuan per gram, up 0.51% from the previous day [2] Core Logic - Short - term: Trade - war - related避险 has subsided, geopolitical risks remain, US employment is weakening, inflation is moderate, and interest - rate - cut expectations remain [1] - 避险 attribute: There are discussions about ending the Ukraine war, and there are still geopolitical risks in the Middle East [1] - Monetary attribute: The possibility of Fed rate cuts has increased, the US economic activity has changed little, and the market is waiting for more economic data [1] - Commodity attribute: The CRB commodity index fluctuates weakly, the RMB appreciation is negative for domestic prices. Silver is supported by tight supply, platinum has strong demand expectations for platinum - based catalysts in the hydrogen - energy industry, and palladium faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market [1] Strategy - Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [3] Silver Market Performance - Comex silver's main contract closed at $61.16 per ounce, up 4.55% from the previous day, and London silver closed at $58.63 per ounce, up 0.44% from the previous day [8] - The closing price of Shanghai Silver's main contract (SHFE) was 14373.00 yuan per kilogram, up 5.63% from the previous day [8] Strategy - Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [8] Fundamental Key Data Monetary Attribute - Federal funds target rate upper limit: 4.00%, down 0.25% from the previous value; discount rate: 4.00%, down 0.25% from the previous value; reserve balance rate (IORB): 3.90%, down 0.25% from the previous value [10] - The Fed's total assets were $65861.85 billion, down 0.00% from the previous value [10] - M2 (year - on - year): 4.65%, up 0.22% from the previous value; 10 - year US Treasury real yield: 2.51, up 0.80% from the previous day, up 2.03% from the previous week [10] - US Treasury spreads, inflation data, economic growth data, labor market data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, trade data, and economic survey data are also provided [12] 避险 Attribute - Geopolitical risk index: 123.60, up 14.93% from the previous day, down 27.38% from the previous week; VIX index: 16.93, up 1.62% from the previous day, up 2.05% from the previous week [13] Commodity Attribute - CRB commodity index: 299.63, down 0.61% from the previous day, down 0.87% from the previous week; offshore RMB: 7.0685, up 0.10% from the previous week [13] Fed's Interest Rate Expectation - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate changes from December 10, 2025, to October 27, 2027, are presented [14]

Core Viewpoint - The market is cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with silver prices experiencing narrow fluctuations while geopolitical risks continue to support safe-haven buying [1] Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - Silver prices surged to $60.47, while gold traded at $4,217 per ounce, with the gold-silver ratio dropping below 70 for the first time in 53 months [1] - London silver prices reached a new high of $61.3, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 110%, significantly outperforming gold [1] - Platinum prices are testing the important level of $1,700 amid increased overall demand for precious metals [1] Group 2: Central Bank Behavior and Economic Factors - Central banks are increasing gold reserves primarily due to its function as a store of value, despite some reduction in purchases from major buyers like China [2] - Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty continue to support the gold market, with no significant price pullback expected in the short term [2] - Citigroup predicts that under favorable conditions such as Federal Reserve rate cuts, silver prices could reach $62 per ounce by March next year [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - For gold, short-term support is at $4,201, with strong support at $4,189, while resistance is noted at $4,220 and $4,265 [3] - Silver is expected to rise further, with the next key resistance at $61.00; however, a bearish divergence is noted [3] - Platinum may gain momentum if prices rise above $1,700, potentially moving towards resistance levels of $1,740 to $1,750 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that silver prices are experiencing a bullish trend due to multiple factors, including industrial demand and monetary policy expectations [1][2][3][4] Group 2 - Global supply chain bottlenecks have eased but are not fully resolved, impacting silver supply dynamics [2] - Emerging industries such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, 5G, and artificial intelligence are driving industrial demand for silver, which constitutes a significant portion of total silver demand [2] - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts and rising geopolitical risks have increased investor demand for precious metals as a hedge against inflation [2][3] Group 3 - Global silver supply is projected to be approximately 813 million ounces in 2025, remaining roughly stable year-on-year, with a slight increase in recycled supply [3] - Total global silver demand is expected to decline by about 4% to 1.12 billion ounces, with industrial demand decreasing by approximately 2% [3] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December exceed 85%, which would enhance the attractiveness of holding silver [3] Group 4 - London silver prices have shown significant upward movement, reaching resistance levels around $61.50, indicating a dominant bullish trend [4] - The trend is supported by trading above the EMA50, which represents dynamic support [4] - However, the relative strength index shows negative overlapping signals, suggesting potential limitations on further price increases [4]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged dramatically, breaking the $60 per ounce mark and entering a new era of pricing, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 100% [1][2] Group 1: Price Movement - On December 9, silver prices rose over 4% in a single day, surpassing $60 per ounce [1] - On December 10, spot silver continued its upward trend, reaching $61 per ounce and hitting a historical high of $61.45 per ounce [1] - Domestic silver futures in China also showed strength, with the main contract peaking at 14,388 yuan per kilogram [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The gold-silver ratio has declined to 68.6, the lowest since July 2021, indicating that silver is outperforming gold significantly [1] - The surge in silver prices is attributed to a combination of factors, including ongoing supply chain issues, increased industrial demand from sectors like photovoltaics, electric vehicles, 5G, and artificial intelligence [2] - Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and rising geopolitical risks have led to increased investor demand for precious metals as a hedge against inflation [2] Group 3: Inventory and Investment Trends - Since 2025, silver inventories in the London LBMA vaults have increased by 1,447 tons, while New York Comex inventories have risen by 4,311 tons, with the ratio of London to Comex inventories reaching a new high for the year at 1.91 [2] - Global silver ETP holdings surged by 487 tons in November 2025, with an additional increase of 475 tons in the first ten days of December, marking the most significant inflow of funds since 2020 [2]

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 12 月 10 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 贵金属市场基本上完全定价美联储本周继续降息 25BP 的利多消息，但市场也 担心 2026 年美联储将显著放缓甚至结束降息进程，目前市场预期 2026 年美联储 再降 50BP 后就将结束本轮降息进程，鹰派降息的潜在利空使得贵金属缺乏上涨动 能，与此同时市场继续关注新任美联储主席提名人选对美联储货币政策倾向的潜 在影响，关注本周三美联储议息会议对 2026 年货币政策的指引；全球经济增长前 景改善，使得工业属性较强的银铂钯在广期所上市铂钯品种 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil overnight retraced its previous gains without any news, remaining in a sideways pattern awaiting geopolitical drivers. The geopolitical situation suggests a pessimistic outlook for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and there is an upward revision risk if the negotiation fails again. There is also an expectation of an escalation of risks in the Caribbean region, which could lead to a pulse - like upward movement [1][3]. - For the chemical sector, the aromatics (PX, PTA, EB) that were previously bullish have seen a weakening of the upward drive as overseas crack spreads have declined significantly. However, PX still has a relatively healthy fundamental situation, and styrene has seen short - term supply - demand improvement due to inventory reduction [1]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Logic**: The impact of supply - demand and macro - drivers on the crude oil market is still weak, with a mid - term oversupply expectation. However, there was trading based on supply - demand changes after last week's unexpected inventory build in EIA data. Macro factors are currently bullish, and geopolitical factors may be the main driver in December. Short - term outlook is bullish but difficult to trade, and there will be mid - term short - selling opportunities after a pulse - like upward movement [2][3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term sideways pattern. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [3]. Styrene - **Logic**: Short - term supply has decreased due to more maintenance after a significant profit decline, leading to inventory reduction and supply - demand improvement. However, further upward movement requires support from crude oil prices. Mid - term inventory is at a five - year high, and there is a high risk of inventory over - build if demand remains weak after the New Year [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to wait for a pull - back without breaking the support at 6520 and then look for a long - entry opportunity [6]. Rubber - **Logic**: There is no major contradiction in the short term. Tire demand has limited growth potential, and the supply side is in the peak tapping season in Southeast Asia, with normal inventory build - up in Qingdao. The market should be viewed with a sideways outlook [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term sideways pattern. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [9]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The core factor is the price of raw material butadiene. Short - term supply - demand has improved as downstream replenished inventory due to low butadiene prices, but there is still mid - term inventory pressure [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term sideways pattern. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [11]. PX - **Logic**: The upward drive has weakened as the off - season US aromatics blending oil logic has ended. However, PX supply - demand remains strong, with high operating rates, no new plant commissioning in the short term, and rising downstream PTA operating rates. Attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil prices [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 6700 and look for opportunities to add positions after the pull - back ends [14]. PTA - **Logic**: The upward drive has weakened as the off - season US aromatics blending oil logic has ended. PTA is still reducing inventory, and short - term supply - demand pressure is low. Attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil prices [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 4620 (01 contract) and look for a second long - entry opportunity after the pull - back ends [18]. PP - **Logic**: Supply is high and demand is weak, with no sign of a reversal. However, short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil need to be watched [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [20]. Methanol - **Logic**: Domestic methanol operating rates remain high, and downstream demand is weak. Although port inventory has decreased, the rate of decrease has slowed, and inventory is still at a high level. The previous upward drive has ended, and the supply - demand logic is still weak [22][24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term sideways pattern. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [24]. PVC - **Logic**: There are few future maintenance plans, and high operating rates are maintained. However, there is an increasing expectation of production cuts due to falling profits. Demand from the downstream real estate sector is weak, and social and factory inventories are high. The valuation is low, and there is no value in short - selling [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: Domestic operating rates are high due to the resumption of previously shut - down plants and new capacity additions. Downstream polyester demand is stable, and the inventory build - up pattern continues. However, short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil need to be watched [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle, paying attention to the short - term resistance at 3720 [29]. Plastic - **Logic**: Supply is high and demand is weak, with no sign of a reversal. However, short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil need to be watched [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle, paying attention to the short - term resistance at 6670 [32]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory situation continues, and downstream glass production lines have cut production, suppressing demand. Although the downward fundamental drive remains, the cost - effectiveness of holding short positions is decreasing [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions cautiously, with a stop - profit at 1155 [35]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Supply operating rates remain high, and traditional downstream demand is in the off - season. Alumina demand has weakened due to reduced production, and inventory has reached a new high. The supply - demand drive is downward, but there is no space for short - selling before a significant rebound [37]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle, paying attention to the short - term resistance at 2135 [37].

新华财经上海12月9日电 近年来，中东房地产市场凭借量价齐升的强劲态势，成为中国投资客海外资产 配置的新热土。从迪拜的高端别墅到多哈的滨水物业，中国买家的身影日益活跃，推动当地楼市交易规 模屡创新高。 然而，近期也有多位业内人士提示，在高租金回报率与政策红利的吸引下，地缘政治、市场波动等潜在 风险同样不容忽视。建议有全球资产配置需求的中国投资者，结合当地楼市基本面与自身风险偏好，在 投资国别和资产标的的决策上做到审慎及均衡。 中国买家成为中坚力量 中东地区部分热门房地产投资目的地，如阿联酋不动产市场中占比最大、交易最为活跃的两个酋长国阿 布扎比与迪拜，其住宅市场近年来呈现出显著的量价齐升态势。 据行业机构统计数据，2025年上半年，阿布扎比住宅成交金额同比增长30%，价格上涨17%，套均价格 达到近三年峰值330万迪拉姆；迪拜则创下历史最高交易纪录，上半年完成98726笔房地产销售，总成交 额达3269亿迪拉姆，较2020年同期增长超10倍，住宅销售均价同比涨幅也达到16.6%。 卡塔尔上市公司卡塔尔联合发展公司（UDC）总裁兼首席执行官亚西尔·贾伊达（Yasser Al Jaidah）介 绍，公司在卡塔尔的 ...