Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that iron ore prices are experiencing a downward trend, with the main futures contract reported at 707.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.46% [1] - As of July 1, the total iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China is 144.65 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons from the previous week [2] - Satellite data shows that from June 23 to June 29, 2024, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil is 12.38 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 188,000 tons, indicating a relatively low inventory level since the second quarter [2] Group 2 - According to Everbright Futures, the mismatch between overseas supply and domestic demand has supported iron ore prices, which are expected to remain strong as long as steel mills maintain profitability and high iron water production [3] - Guotou Anxin Futures notes that iron ore shipments globally have decreased compared to the same period last year, with both Australian and Brazilian shipments declining, while non-mainstream countries have seen a rebound [3] - The macroeconomic environment shows a decrease in geopolitical risks and signs of easing trade tensions between China and the U.S., leading to improved market sentiment [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the emerging markets (EM) sector, but it discusses the current state of capital flows and economic conditions, indicating a cautious outlook due to various factors affecting inflows [2][4][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights a "sudden stall" in capital flows to emerging markets, with cumulative net outflows of $27 billion through April 2025, driven primarily by portfolio investments [10][14]. - Despite a weaker dollar acting as a push factor for inflows, the lack of stronger growth in emerging markets limits the pull factor, resulting in sluggish inflows [7][9]. - The report notes that current accounts in emerging markets are generally in good shape, which has insulated them from significant macroeconomic damage despite the capital flow challenges [14][16]. Summary by Sections Economic Overview - The report discusses the elevated probability of a US recession at 40%, with uncertainties surrounding US trade policies and geopolitical risks impacting global economic conditions [1]. - It mentions that the dollar has weakened significantly since March, which typically would benefit emerging markets, but this has not translated into expected inflows [2][4]. Capital Flows Analysis - The report identifies both push and pull factors influencing capital flows, with a weaker dollar serving as a push factor and the growth differential between emerging and developed markets acting as a pull factor [3]. - It notes that portfolio inflows have been weak since October, with a significant outflow of $115 billion in April 2025, attributed to market turmoil [10][12]. Growth and Inflation Outlook - The report suggests that domestic demand in emerging markets remains soft, and any escalation in tariffs could skew risks further to the downside, impacting growth differentials [9]. - It emphasizes that while inflation is expected to move lower, some central banks in emerging markets may have room to cut rates due to contained macro risks [14][16].

摩根士丹利：随着市场供应充足，以及以色列与伊朗紧张局势缓和后地缘政治风险的减弱，布伦特原油 可能会在明年初回落至每桶60美元左右。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that President Trump announced the complete destruction of Iran's nuclear facilities, which escalates geopolitical risks and disrupts market expectations for US-Iran negotiations [2][4][11] - Trump's statement indicates a dual strategy of sanctions and military threats, emphasizing that sanctions will not be lifted until Iran completely abandons its nuclear program [5][11] - The Iranian government has responded by asserting its readiness to counter any aggression and has called for accountability from the UN Security Council [2][4] Group 2 - The escalation of geopolitical risks has led to significant fluctuations in the gold market, with spot gold prices experiencing a sharp rise and subsequent decline due to market reactions [6][11] - Historical comparisons show that gold prices surged significantly during past US-Iran conflicts, indicating a potential for similar behavior in the current situation [7] - Despite the geopolitical tensions boosting demand for gold, the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve poses a challenge to gold prices, as rising interest rates could diminish gold's appeal [8][11] Group 3 - Central banks globally are expected to continue increasing their gold holdings, with a strong interest from emerging market central banks [9] - The decline in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves suggests a structural support for gold as it becomes a key beneficiary of the "de-dollarization" trend [9][11] - The risk of an economic recession in the US provides a baseline support for gold prices, despite short-term pressures from interest rate expectations [8][11]

Market Overview - US stock index futures and European stocks rose due to progress in multiple trade negotiations, while Asian markets remained flat [1] - The Japanese stock market increased by 0.8% as Japan's chief negotiator extended their stay in the US to seek an agreement [4] - Canadian withdrawal of the digital services tax for tech companies aims to restart negotiations with the US, strengthening the Canadian dollar and boosting US tech stock futures [1] Asset Performance - Major US stock index futures rose, with Nasdaq 100 and Dow futures up approximately 0.5%, and S&P 500 futures also increasing by about 0.5% [2] - European stocks saw slight gains, with the pan-European index, UK stocks, and French stocks rising over 0.1%, while German stocks increased by over 0.2% [3] - The Nikkei 225 index closed up 0.8% following the extension of negotiations in the US [4] Currency and Commodity Movements - The US dollar index fell by approximately 0.2%, while the Japanese yen rose over 0.5% [5] - The South Korean won rose over 1% to its highest level since October last year, currently up about 0.7% [6] - Spot gold and silver increased by about 0.6% [9] - Crude oil prices declined, with US oil down about 0.4% and Brent oil down about 0.2% [10] Geopolitical and Trade Developments - Easing geopolitical risks and expectations of imminent trade agreements have added momentum to risk assets [12] - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Trump agreed to restart negotiations aiming for an agreement by July 21 [13] - French Finance Minister Eric Lombard indicated that the EU is likely to reach some form of trade agreement with the US before the July 9 deadline to avoid significant tariffs on EU products [13] - India's trade team has also extended their stay in Washington to resolve differences before the July 9 deadline [13]

Group 1 - There is a significant divergence in economic outlook between Western and Eastern investors, influenced by factors such as Trump's tariff policy, geopolitical risks, and currency devaluation threats [1][3] - American retail investors are experiencing a wave of profit-taking, shifting from aggressive gold purchases to large-scale selling, reflecting a stark contrast in sentiment compared to Asian investors [3][5] - In Asia, there is a surge in demand for gold, with the World Gold Council reporting a 3% increase in demand for gold bars and coins in the Asia-Pacific region in Q1 2025, particularly driven by a 12% increase in China and over 30% growth in countries like South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia [5][6] Group 2 - Concerns over the impact of Trump's tariffs initially triggered a strong rebound in gold demand in Asia, with local currency devaluation fears further driving gold purchases [6] - Goldman Sachs maintains a target price of $4,000 for gold next year, while Morgan Stanley predicts gold will reach $3,800 by the end of this year; in contrast, Citigroup forecasts a drop below $3,000 next year [8] - The sentiment among American retail investors has shifted, as they now perceive that tariff policies may not be as detrimental as previously thought, leading to a reduction in gold holdings and a preference for risk assets [8]

基本面： 周一（6月30日）亚盘时段，现货黄金下探刷新一个月低点至3247美元附近后反弹回升，目前交投于3278美元附近。上周五金价大幅下跌2%，触及近一个月 低点，收报3274.37美元/盎司，周线跌幅高达2.8%，创下连续两周周线收跌的记录。美股上周五延续涨势，标普500指数和纳斯达克指数创下纪录收盘新 高，贸易协议希望提振投资者的风险偏好，经济数据帮助巩固了对美联储将降息的预期。在美国总统特朗普因加拿大对科技公司征收数字税而叫停与加拿大 的贸易谈判后，股市缩减涨幅。即便如此，美国三大股指周线均上涨。 上周四，中美就加快向美国出口稀土达成贸易协议，这一消息被市场视为积极信号，显著提振了全球股市表现。美国华尔街股市延续涨势，标普500指数和 纳斯达克指数双双创下纪录收盘新高。投资者对贸易紧张局势缓解的乐观情绪推动了风险偏好的上升，削弱了黄金作为传统避险资产的吸引力。黄金价格因 此承压，上周五单日下跌2%，反映了市场对风险资产的追逐。 美国总统特朗普表示，7月9日的贸易谈判截止日期并非固定不变，并暗示可能提前或延后。这一表态为市场注入了更多的不确定性。尽管美国财政部长贝森 特乐观表示，特朗普政府有望在9月1日 ...

Core Viewpoint - In the third week of June, international gold prices experienced the largest weekly decline of the year, dropping 2.8% to around $2,280 per ounce, indicating a significant restructuring of the pricing logic for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and easing geopolitical risks [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The dollar index regained support amid adjustments in interest rate expectations, becoming a key factor suppressing gold prices. Futures indicate that traders have pushed back the expected timing of the Fed's first rate cut from September to November, with the steepening U.S. Treasury yield curve pushing the dollar index above 106 [3]. - The substantial decrease in geopolitical risks accelerated profit-taking among gold bulls, particularly after a temporary ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, leading to a noticeable contraction in market demand for safe-haven assets [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Changes - The World Gold Council reported a 12% year-on-year decline in global gold jewelry demand in Q2, with weaker-than-expected seasonal purchases in the Indian market. Although central bank gold purchases remained high, China's gold reserve increase slowed to 21 tons in April-May, down from an average of 35 tons per month in Q1 [7]. - The marginal changes in supply and demand dynamics have reinforced the momentum for price adjustments, with institutions beginning to revise gold valuation models. Credit Suisse lowered its year-end gold price forecast from $2,500 to $2,350, citing rising real interest rates that will compress gold premium space [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weak [1] - LPG: Weak [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Short - term bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Weak rebound [2] - Soda ash: Range - bound rebound [2] - Caustic soda: Range - bound rebound [2] - Methanol: Short - term bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously long [2] - Asphalt: Weak [2] Group 2: Report's Core Views - Crude oil: Oil prices return to fundamental pricing. With the consumption peak season and increasing supply, oil prices are in a consolidation phase. In the long - term, there is an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, prices are weakly oscillating. [1][4] - LPG: Geopolitical tensions ease, the cost side declines, and LPG is under pressure. [1][5] - L: Transaction slows down, inventory pressure in the upper and middle reaches eases, the cost side of crude oil weakens, and it is recommended to go short on rebounds. [1][9] - PP: Warehouse receipts decrease, the parking ratio rises, the cost side of crude oil and methanol falls, and it is advisable to go short on rebounds. [1][12] - PVC: Calcium carbide prices rise, social inventory increases, factory inventory decreases, and it is recommended to go short on rebounds. [1][15] - PX: Domestic and foreign PX device loads are operating at a high level, and there are expectations of both supply and demand increases. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low prices. [1][17] - PTA/PR: Recently, there are many maintenance devices. Later, with the resumption of production and new capacity addition, supply pressure is expected to increase. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go short at high prices. [1][20] - Ethylene glycol: The device load increases, the arrival volume is expected to rise, demand is expected to weaken, and it is recommended to look for high - level short - selling opportunities. [1][23] - Glass: Supported by domestic macro - policies, the supply side slightly decreases, and the price has a weak rebound. [2][26] - Soda ash: The weekly operating rate and production decline, and there is a range - bound rebound, but high supply and inventory limit the upside. [2][29] - Caustic soda: There is an expectation of inventory reduction through maintenance, and there is a weak rebound at a low level. [2][32] - Methanol: The port has a high basis, but there is a negative feedback on MTO demand. It is short - term bullish. [2][33] - Urea: The supply pressure is still large, but there are expectations for agricultural demand peak season and exports. It is recommended to be cautiously long. [2] - Asphalt: Geopolitical tensions ease, the cost side of crude oil falls, and it is recommended to go short with a light position. [2] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude oil - **Market review**: On June 27, international oil prices were weakly oscillating. WTI rose 0.43%, Brent rose 0.16%, and SC fell 0.63%. [3] - **Basic logic**: After the US participated in the Israel - Iran conflict on June 23, geopolitical risks eased, and oil prices returned to fundamental pricing. OPEC+ is rumored to increase production by 415,000 barrels per day in August. In terms of supply, Guyana's oil production increased from 611,000 barrels per day in April to 667,000 barrels per day in May. In terms of demand, the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 is 1.29 million barrels per day, lower than 1.3 million barrels per day in May. In terms of inventory, as of the week ending June 20, US crude oil inventory decreased by 5.8 million barrels, strategic crude oil reserve increased by 200,000 barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 2.1 million barrels, and distillate oil inventory decreased by 4.1 million barrels. [4] - **Strategy recommendation**: In the long - term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+ being in an expansion cycle, there is an oversupply of crude oil, and the price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, with the decline of geopolitical risks, oil prices return to supply - demand fundamental pricing, and it is recommended to go short with a light position and buy call options for protection. SC is expected to be in the range of [490 - 510]. [4] LPG - **Market review**: On June 27, the PG main contract closed at 4,256 yuan/ton, down 0.21% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged. [5] - **Basic logic**: Recently, geopolitical risks have declined, the cost side of oil prices has adjusted after squeezing out geopolitical premiums, and LPG has oscillated following the cost side. The PDH device profit decreased by 25 yuan/ton, and the alkylation device profit increased by 25 yuan/ton. The supply of LPG increased, and the demand of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil increased. The refinery inventory and port inventory increased. [6] - **Strategy recommendation**: In the long - term, after the release of geopolitical risks, from the perspective of supply and demand, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to go short with a light position or buy put options. PG is expected to be in the range of [4,170 - 4,300]. [7] L - **Market review**: On June 27, the prices of L contracts increased to varying degrees, and the main contract position increased by 2.0%. The spot prices of LL and HD decreased slightly, and the import and production profits changed. The social inventory of PE decreased significantly. [9] - **Basic logic**: With the easing of the situation in the Middle East, the international crude oil price has fallen, and the cost support for polyethylene has weakened. Some previously maintained devices have restarted, and the supply is expected to increase. It is currently the off - season for demand, and the price support is limited. [9] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the price trends of crude oil and coal and the progress of new capacity addition. [10] PP - **Market review**: On June 27, the prices of PP contracts decreased slightly, and the main contract position decreased by 1.0%. The spot prices of PP were mostly stable, and the production and import profits changed. The enterprise and trade inventory of PP decreased. [12] - **Basic logic**: The decline in cost has dampened market sentiment, and the trading atmosphere is weak. The supply side has increased device maintenance, but in the off - season, downstream factories mostly purchase on demand, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly alleviated. [12] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the price trends of crude oil and coal and the progress of new capacity addition. [13] PVC - **Market review**: The PVC market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, with the spot supply - demand fundamentals being poor, and the market center remains weak. [15] - **Basic logic**: Calcium carbide prices have risen, social inventory has increased, and factory inventory has decreased. Some device maintenance is expected to end this week, and new maintenance is planned at the end of the month, with production expected to decline. It is the domestic off - season for demand, but exports still have support. There are plans to put into production three sets of devices in the future, and the supply side is under pressure. [15] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short on rebounds and pay attention to the pressure level at integer points. V is expected to be in the range of [4,850 - 5,000]. [15] PX - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,145 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the PX09 contract closed at 6,752 (+30) yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 month spread was 206 (+8) yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed. [16] - **Basic logic**: PX profits have continued to improve, and domestic and foreign device loads are operating at a high level. The demand side is expected to improve with the resumption of PTA device production and new capacity addition. The inventory has decreased but is still at a relatively high level in the same period of the past five years. [17] - **Strategy recommendation**: PX is expected to be in the range of [6,760 - 6,950]. [18] PTA - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of PTA in East China was 5,025 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,778 (+8) yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 month spread was 172 (-2) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 247 (-8) yuan/ton. [19] - **Basic logic**: Recently, there are many PTA maintenance devices. Later, with the resumption of production and new capacity addition, supply pressure is expected to increase. Downstream polyester production reduction and terminal weaving operating load continue to decline. Inventory is continuously decreasing, processing fees are high, and the basis is strong. [20] - **Strategy recommendation**: TA is expected to be in the range of [4,780 - 4,910]. [21] Ethylene glycol - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,340 (-20) yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,271 (-22) yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 month spread was -43 (-9) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 69 (+2) yuan/ton. [22] - **Basic logic**: Recently, the device load has increased, and although the arrival volume is currently low, it is expected to rise. The demand side is expected to weaken, and the inventory is decreasing but the expectation is narrowing. [23] - **Strategy recommendation**: EG is expected to be in the range of [4,220 - 4,310]. [24] Glass - **Market review**: The spot market price quotes are stable, the price has a weak rebound, the basis narrows, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [25] - **Basic logic**: Supported by domestic macro - policies, the market risk preference has recovered. The glass supply has increased and decreased simultaneously this week, and the overall production remains at a low - level fluctuation. The coal - based production still has profits, and it is difficult to trigger large - scale cold repairs. The fuel price has increased, which has a certain boost to the glass price. [26] - **Strategy recommendation**: FG is expected to be in the range of [1,010 - 1,030], with the 5 - day moving average providing weak support. [26] Soda ash - **Market review**: The spot price of heavy soda ash has been raised, the price has stabilized, the main contract basis has narrowed, the number of warehouse receipts has increased, and the number of forecasts has increased. [28] - **Basic logic**: Recently, some soda ash devices have reduced their loads, and the overall supply has slightly decreased. However, the industry's operating rate is still at a high level, and the pressure of oversupply in the later period remains. The terminal consumption of soda ash is mediocre, and the glass price is consolidating at a low level, providing general support to the upstream. The manufacturer's inventory continues to accumulate. [29] - **Strategy recommendation**: SA is expected to be in the range of [1,185 - 1,220], with a range - bound rebound. [29] Caustic soda - **Market review**: The spot price of caustic soda remains stable, the price has a weak rebound at a low level, the basis has weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [31] - **Basic logic**: On the supply side, due to good chlor - alkali profits, most upstream devices maintain high - load production, and there is an expectation of new capacity addition from June to July. On the demand side, the downstream alumina production has slightly declined, and non - aluminum demand is still weak. The cost support has shifted downwards, and the inventory of liquid caustic soda enterprises has increased. [32] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the weak rebound driven by inventory reduction through maintenance. [32] Methanol - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,638 (+19) yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2,393 (-24) yuan/ton. The East China basis was 245 (+43) yuan/ton, the port basis was 427 (+79) yuan/ton, the MA9 - 1 month spread was -26 (-10) yuan/ton, and the China - Southeast Asia methanol re - export profit increased to 56 (-4) US dollars/ton. [33] - **Basic logic**: The overall operating load of methanol has increased, and the arrival volume in July may be lower than expected. The demand side has shown negative feedback, and the enterprise inventory has decreased. The port basis is high, and there are still geopolitical military conflict risks. [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is short - term bullish. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the 09 contract and look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract. MA is expected to be in the range of [2,380 - 2,460]. [2] Urea - **Basic logic**: Recently, the urea maintenance intensity has increased, and the daily production has decreased briefly. However, in early July, the device is expected to resume production, and the supply pressure remains large. The industrial demand is weak, and the agricultural demand peak season is approaching. The fertilizer export growth rate is relatively fast, and there is still cost support. [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to be cautiously long and pay attention to short - selling opportunities. UR is expected to be in the range of [1,710 - 1,760]. [2] Asphalt - **Basic logic**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, the cost side of crude oil has fallen significantly, the supply has increased, and the inventory has accumulated. The demand shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south". [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short with a light position. BU is expected to be in the range of [3,500 - 3,600]. [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market reached a historical high last week, while energy futures prices declined due to easing tensions in the Middle East [1] - Investors are showing increased optimism in the short term, as the premiums for put options are decreasing, but long-term sentiment remains cautious with little change in market preferences [1][2] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) long-term contracts are still at elevated levels, indicating ongoing concerns about the economic impact of tariffs [1] Group 2 - There are signs of investors buying VIX options, with the VVIX index dropping below 90, a level not seen since July of the previous year [2] - The oil market has not fully recovered from the Israel-Iran conflict, with Brent crude implied volatility returning to levels seen in early June, indicating no strong bullish or bearish sentiment [2] - A mixed trading strategy involving stocks and oil has been suggested, as geopolitical tensions could lead to rising oil prices while high interest rates may pressure stock prices [2] Group 3 - Hedge funds and large asset managers have significantly reduced their net long positions in Brent crude futures and options, marking the largest decline since early April [5] - In the European gas market, the net short position of trend-following commodity trading advisors (CTAs) increased from 9% to 18%, complicating market operations for traders holding physical assets [5] Group 4 - There is unprecedented interest in crude oil futures spread trading, with open interest in related options reaching a historical high [6] - Traders anticipate a potential reversal from short-term supply tightness to oversupply due to increased output from OPEC and other producers, alongside uncertain economic prospects [6] Group 5 - A significant decrease in geopolitical risk premium reflects traders' experiences in managing major geopolitical shocks without significant oil supply disruptions, alongside a trend of moving from substantial inventory reductions to increases [7]