1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is influenced by geopolitical factors and fundamental supply - demand situations. Most products in the sector are recommended to hold short - positions, mainly due to the high probability of supply - demand surplus in the second half of the year, especially for crude oil. Short - term geopolitical disturbances should not be over - emphasized, and investment decisions should be based on the mid - term fundamental situation [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: After a significant decline last week, a rebound on Friday night was related to geopolitical events. However, considering OPEC+ production increases and weakening US demand, the probability of supply - demand surplus in the second half of the year is high. The mid - term bearish view based on the fundamental surplus situation should be maintained [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation structure. The upper limit of the oscillation range is around 491. There is an opportunity to short at high prices near the upper limit of the range, with a stop - loss reference of 491 [2] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly level, and try short - selling at the upper limit of the range at the end of the day, with a stop - loss of 491 [2] (2) Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The weekly fundamentals of benzene ethylene have not improved significantly. High profits, high production, and high inventory situations persist, and new device launches in September - October will increase supply pressure. The downward drive of fundamentals remains [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 7105, and the decline path remains unchanged [7] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a final stop - profit reference of 7105 [7] (3) Rubber - **Logic**: Overseas raw material prices have declined, weakening cost support. Although inventory is decreasing, the year - on - year high inventory pressure still exists. The fundamentals are currently neutral [9] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation structure, and the hourly - level is facing a decline structure. After a rebound today, pay attention to the opportunity to short if it fails to break through the hourly - level pressure of 16050 at night [9] - **Strategy**: Stop - loss the 15 - minute short - positions, and then pay attention to short - selling opportunities if it fails to break through the hourly - level pressure [9] (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The supply - demand of synthetic rubber itself has no major contradictions. The main concern is the cost side, especially butadiene. With the arrival of ship cargoes and future capacity expansion, the cost side is bearish [12] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 11760, and there is potential for further decline [15] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 11760 [15] (5) PX - **Logic**: PX profits have recovered, and the operating rate has increased. The demand recovery is slower than expected. The main factor to watch is the cost - side drive from crude oil [18] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term decline structure is being tested. Pay attention to the 15 - minute upper limit pressure of 6770 [20] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle [20] (6) PTA - **Logic**: PTA supply has increased, and demand is stable. The terminal operating rate in the peak season is weaker than expected. The main factor to watch is the cost - side drive from crude oil [22] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 4700 [22] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 4700 [22] (7) PP - **Logic**: Demand has improved slightly in the peak season, but supply pressure has increased due to new capacity launches. Pay attention to the cost - side collapse logic [25] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 6985 [26] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [26] (8) Methanol - **Logic**: High operating rates and high imports have led to high inventory pressure. Although downstream MTO profits have improved, the bearish fundamental pattern remains [30] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term decline/oscillation structure, and the short - term is in a decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 2435 [30] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle cautiously, with a final stop - profit reference of 2435 [30] (9) PVC - **Logic**: High production and high inventory patterns persist due to high caustic soda profits and weak downstream demand [31] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term rise structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 4930 [33] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [33] (10) EG - **Logic**: Current supply - demand contradictions are not significant, but supply pressure may increase in the future. Pay attention to the impact of new capacity launches [34] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a decline structure. The short - term pressure is 4335 [34] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 4335 [34] (11) Plastic - **Logic**: New capacity has increased supply pressure, and demand recovery in the peak season is limited. Further decline requires the cost - side crude oil to continue to weaken [36] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 7270 [36] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 7270 [36] (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: Supply is continuously increasing, and the high - production and high - inventory pattern remains. Although the previous over - valuation has been corrected, there is no upward drive in the short term [39] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the pressure, and the decline structure remains unchanged. The upper short - term pressure is 1320 [39] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [39] (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Supply is abundant, but demand has improved, and inventory pressure has been relieved. Mid - term attention should be paid to the impact of device maintenance and peak - season demand [43] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a decline structure. The daily oscillation did not change the decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 2625 [43] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 2625 [43]

Group 1 - Russia successfully tested the Tsirkon hypersonic cruise missile in the Barents Sea and conducted joint military exercises with Belarus, named "Zapad-2025," aimed at enhancing military command and coordination capabilities in case of an attack [1] - The Tsirkon missile can strike targets within 1,000 kilometers and has a speed of 9 Mach (approximately 11,000 km/h), with a warhead weight of 300-400 kg [1] - NATO initiated "Eastern Sentry" operations following Russian drone incursions into Polish airspace, with NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg warning that Russian actions are escalating regional tensions [1] Group 2 - The Su-34 fighter-bomber, equipped with 12 hardpoints and capable of carrying 8 tons of munitions, was used for ground attack tasks during the exercises, emphasizing its low-altitude penetration capabilities [2] - The U.S. Department of Defense officials were allowed to observe the Belarus military exercises, marking the first time NATO member countries were invited to such events [2] - Recent U.S. diplomatic actions towards Belarus, including the release of prisoners in exchange for the lifting of sanctions on the Belarusian airline Belavia, indicate a shift in U.S. policy towards the region [2] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the joint military exercises between Russia and Belarus aim to strengthen military alliances, while the U.S. seeks to circumvent sanctions against Russia through Belarus [3] - The deployment of hypersonic weapons by Russia serves as a deterrent against NATO's conventional military advantages, while the U.S. may be looking to create conditions for negotiations regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3] - Recent personal diplomacy from the Trump administration towards Belarus contrasts sharply with the Biden administration's tougher stance, indicating potential shifts in U.S. strategy towards Russia [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that oil prices closed higher this week, with absolute price fluctuations intensifying due to geopolitical news. The US proposed extensive sanctions on Russian energy, urging G7 allies to impose a 100% tariff on Russian oil purchases. Fundamentally, the global oil market is in a state of inventory build - up, with US EIA commercial crude oil and refined products inventories increasing, and global refinery profits declining. In the baseline scenario, there will be an oversupply of over 200,000 barrels per day in the fourth - quarter oil balance sheet, and an expected oversupply of 180,000 - 250,000 barrels per day in 2026. The fundamentals are turning to the off - season, and the medium - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The report expects the absolute price center in the fourth quarter to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of US sanctions on Russia and its potential influence on Russian supply [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From September 8 to September 12, 2025, WTI crude oil prices increased by $0.32, BRENT by $0.62, and DUBAI by $0.35. Other related refined products and by - products also showed various price changes. For example, domestic gasoline prices decreased by $50, and domestic diesel prices decreased by $35 [3]. 3.2 News - Trump stated that when all NATO countries stop buying Russian oil, he will impose major sanctions on Russia, aiming to end the Russia - Ukraine war and save lives. He also threatened new economic sanctions on Russia due to the stalled cease - fire negotiation efforts [3]. - The US proposed that the G7 impose extensive sanctions on Russian energy, including a 100% tariff on Russian oil purchases and the creation of a legal way to confiscate frozen Russian sovereign assets to fund Ukraine's defense [3]. - The US Energy Secretary said the EU may phase out Russian natural gas in 6 - 12 months and replace it with US LNG [4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week of September 5, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.139 million barrels per day to 2.745 million barrels per day, while domestic crude oil production increased by 72,000 barrels to 13.495 million barrels per day. Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.939 million barrels to 425 million barrels, with a growth rate of 0.94%. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.888 million barrels per day, a 1.97% increase year - on - year. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 514,000 barrels to 405.2 million barrels, with a growth rate of 0.13%. Crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 471,000 barrels per day to 6.271 million barrels per day [4]. - From August 22 - 29, the operating rate of major refineries and Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Domestic gasoline production decreased while diesel production increased, and both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated weakly, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries declined month - on - month [4].

Oil Industry - International oil prices rebounded last week, with Brent 11 contract rising by 1.84% while SC10 contract fell by 1.39%. The market remains influenced by geopolitical tensions and mid-term oversupply pressures [2] Precious Metals - The market has fully priced in the expectation of three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, leading to a strong performance in precious metals, although volatility has increased [3] Copper - Copper prices saw a pullback after a spike, with high overseas inventory levels affecting market sentiment. Domestic production capacity is stabilizing, and attention is on current copper prices and premiums [4] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices followed the overall strength in non-ferrous metals, breaking through the 21,000 yuan mark. Seasonal demand recovery is expected, with aluminum ingot inventory likely remaining low [5] Alumina - Alumina production capacity exceeds 96 million tons, with rising industry inventory levels. The market is experiencing significant oversupply, leading to price declines [6] Zinc - LME zinc inventory is low, and external supply is tight. The market is experiencing a rebound, but domestic prices lag behind. Short-term strategies should focus on macroeconomic influences [8] Lead - Lead production is expected to decrease due to factory repairs, easing supply pressure. However, demand remains weak, with limited purchasing activity from downstream sectors [9] Steel Industry - Steel prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with rebar demand and production continuing to decline. The construction sector is slowing down, impacting overall demand [15][16] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices are fluctuating, with stable port inventories and a slight recovery in demand. Steel mills are expected to continue replenishing inventories in the short term [16] Fertilizer Industry - Urea prices are declining due to weak market sentiment and high inventory levels among producers. Agricultural demand remains low, leading to a continuation of weak market conditions [25] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are experiencing low volatility, with market sentiment improving slightly. Total inventory levels are decreasing, indicating potential demand recovery [12] Agricultural Products - The USDA report indicates a slight increase in soybean production despite lower yield estimates. Market sentiment remains cautious as weather conditions are expected to impact future supply [37] Cotton - Cotton prices are fluctuating, with expectations of a large new crop. The market is closely monitoring the purchasing behavior of ginners as new cotton comes to market [44] Sugar - Sugar prices are under pressure due to high production levels in Brazil, while domestic sugar sales are increasing, leading to lower inventory levels [45]

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: September 15, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The manufacturing industry's prosperity has improved, with the official PMI at 49.4 in August, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI at 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, but a decline from July [4][7]. - Crude oil prices are fluctuating. Recent events such as Israel's attack on the capital of Qatar have led to renewed turmoil in the Middle East geopolitical situation, and the US, Europe, etc., are planning secondary sanctions on Russian oil [4][7]. - The demand for agricultural films is gradually entering the peak season, but overall demand is still weaker than in previous years. The demand for other packaging films has rebounded [4]. - The downstream demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc., has improved [7]. - The LLDPE and PP futures main contracts are expected to fluctuate today [4][7]. Summary by Category LLDPE - **Fundamentals**: Overall neutral. The manufacturing industry's prosperity has improved, and the demand for agricultural films is entering the peak season, but overall demand is still weak. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 7,180 (-20) [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 11, with a premium ratio of 0.2%, neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 545,000 tons (+35,000), bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, bullish [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Geopolitical turmoil provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season; however, the year-on-year demand is still weak [5]. PP - **Fundamentals**: Overall neutral. The manufacturing industry's prosperity has improved, and the downstream demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc., has improved. The current PP delivery spot price is 6,980 (0) [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 67, with a premium ratio of 1.0%, bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 575,000 tons (-8,000), bearish [7]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, bearish [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Geopolitical turmoil provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season; however, the year-on-year demand is still weak [8]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 31.1% in 2023. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4,319.5 [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally showed an upward trend. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4,906 [17].

Summary of the Conference Call on China Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals Industry Overview - The focus is on the **China healthcare and pharmaceuticals** sector, particularly regarding the potential impact of geopolitical concerns on drug out-licensing from China [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Geopolitical Concerns**: The Trump administration is reportedly considering imposing restrictions on medicines from China, which could include clinical-stage molecules and generics [1][3]. 2. **Investor Advocacy**: Some US-based investors and corporate executives are pushing for these restrictions, arguing that the acquisition of Chinese drug assets by large multinational corporations (MNCs) hampers the competitiveness of US biotech companies [2][3]. 3. **Proposed Measures**: Key proposals include: - Heavier scrutiny on American pharmaceutical companies acquiring rights to experimental drugs from Chinese manufacturers [3]. - Discouragement of reliance on clinical trial data from Chinese patients by US drugmakers [3]. 4. **Impact on Out-Licensing**: The proposed restrictions are expected to have a short-term negative effect on the trend of innovative drug out-licensing from China. However, the long-term impact will require ongoing monitoring [4][6]. 5. **Quality of Drug Development**: The proposals reflect an improvement in the quality of China's innovative drug development, which has narrowed the innovation gap with US drugmakers. In the first half of 2025, 72 Chinese molecules were out-licensed, a 38% year-on-year increase, with a total deal size of USD 62 billion, surpassing the USD 52 billion total in 2024 [4]. 6. **Market Performance**: The China healthcare sector has seen significant gains, with the HSHCI rising by 97% year-to-date compared to a 31% gain in the HSI. However, new geopolitical uncertainties may affect companies involved in drug out-licensing [5]. 7. **Investment Strategy**: Investors are advised to consider reallocating gains from biotech and CRO investments towards underperforming sectors such as medical equipment and AI healthcare [5]. 8. **Resilience of Collaborations**: Historical context suggests that collaborations in life sciences between the US and China have proven to be more resilient than anticipated, even during previous geopolitical tensions [6]. Additional Important Information - The report emphasizes the need for investors to monitor the evolution of the proposed measures and their implications for the sector, as increased scrutiny may not necessarily halt collaborations [6]. - The data provided by Pharmcube indicates a robust trend in out-licensing, which may continue despite geopolitical challenges [4]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China healthcare and pharmaceuticals industry amidst geopolitical tensions.

Core Insights - The semiconductor foundry industry is experiencing significant differentiation, with TSMC dominating the market, capturing 70.2% of global market share in Q2 2025, and achieving a revenue of $30.239 billion, marking an 18.5% quarter-over-quarter increase [1][2][5] - TSMC's success is attributed to its advanced process technologies (3nm, 5nm) and unique packaging solutions, which have positioned it as a critical player in the AI and high-performance computing (HPC) sectors [5][9][11] - Other foundries, such as Samsung, SMIC, and UMC, are facing challenges in maintaining market share and profitability, with Samsung's revenue at $3.159 billion and a market share of 7.3%, while SMIC's revenue declined slightly to $2.209 billion [2][6][12] Industry Overview - The top ten foundries collectively generated $41.718 billion in revenue in Q2 2025, reflecting a 14.6% increase from the previous quarter, indicating a recovery in the semiconductor cycle [2][4] - TSMC's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached $55.6 billion, with a gross margin of 58.7% and a net profit of $24 billion, showcasing its strong financial performance compared to its competitors [5][19] - The foundry landscape is characterized by a "one strong, many strong" dynamic, where TSMC leads while other firms like UMC and GlobalFoundries maintain stability through specialized processes [4][5][6] Trends and Challenges - The industry is witnessing three major trends: AI-driven demand, structural recovery in mature processes, and geopolitical reshaping of global supply chains [8][13] - AI and HPC demand have intensified the focus on advanced packaging, with TSMC being the only supplier capable of large-scale, high-yield CoWoS packaging, which is critical for AI chip production [9][16] - Mature process nodes are undergoing a recovery phase after significant inventory adjustments, with companies like UMC and VIS reporting improved margins due to rising demand in consumer electronics and automotive sectors [12][13] Future Outlook - The second half of 2025 will be pivotal, with TSMC expanding its packaging capacity and Samsung betting on its 2nm technology to regain competitiveness [15][17] - SMIC and other Chinese foundries need to enhance their product mix and manage depreciation pressures to improve profitability, while companies like Huahong and PSMC face challenges in maintaining financial stability [17][18] - The evolving landscape suggests that future winners will be those who can provide comprehensive system solutions rather than just excel in individual technologies [19]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the significant role of military trade in shaping geopolitical dynamics and national security, highlighting that military equipment exports are deeply intertwined with political interests and international relations [2][4]. Group 1: Overview of Military Trade - Military trade, or arms trade, is defined as the transfer of military equipment between countries, reflecting political, military, and diplomatic strategies [19]. - The military trade market is characterized by high concentration, with the top ten exporting countries accounting for 89.70% of global military trade from 2015-2019 and 88.60% from 2020-2024 [4][38]. - The primary military trade products include aircraft, missiles, naval vessels, and specialized vehicles, with aircraft consistently representing over 40% of the market share [4][38]. Group 2: Global Military Trade Landscape - The United States and its allies dominate global military trade, accounting for 64.10% and 78.06% of exports in the periods 2015-2019 and 2020-2024, respectively [2][42]. - The top five military exporting countries from 2015-2019 were the United States, Russia, France, China, and Germany, with France surpassing Russia in the subsequent period due to a decline in Russian exports [4][38]. - The global military trade market has experienced three major fluctuations since 1950, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.72% from 80.82 billion TIV to 289.38 billion TIV [37][38]. Group 3: Military Trade Dynamics - The military trade sector is influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions, which are the primary importers of military equipment [4][38]. - Recent trends show a decline in Russian military exports by 63.90% due to sanctions and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, while countries like Italy have seen significant increases in their military trade [42]. - The report indicates that military trade is not merely an economic activity but a strategic tool for nations to exert influence and maintain security balances [2][41].

Report Title - "Crude Oil Weekly Report: OPEC+ Rapidly Increases Production, International Oil Prices Decline" [1] Report Date - September 14, 2025 [1] Report Authors - Energy and Chemical Chief Securities Analyst: Chen Shuxian, CFA [1] - Energy and Chemical Analyst: Zhou Shaowen [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, Brent/WTI crude oil futures had weekly average prices of $66.7/$62.7 per barrel, down $0.8/$1.2 from last week respectively. In the US, crude oil production, inventory, and the number of active rigs and fracturing fleets increased, while refinery processing volume decreased, and import and export volumes changed. US refined oil prices, inventory, production, and demand also showed various changes. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Crude Oil Weekly Data Briefing - **Upstream Key Company Performance**: For example, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (600938.SH) had a weekly increase of 2.2%, and China National Petroleum Corporation (601857.SH) had a weekly decrease of 2.4%. [8][9] - **Crude Oil Price**: Brent, WTI, Russian Urals, and Russian ESPO crude oil prices had different degrees of decline compared to last week. [9] - **Crude Oil Inventory**: US total crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory were 8.3/4.2/4.1/0.2 billion barrels respectively, with weekly changes of +445/+394/+51/-37 million barrels. [2][9] - **Crude Oil Production**: US crude oil production was 13.5 million barrels per day, up 70,000 barrels per day from last week. The number of active crude oil rigs was 416, up 2, and the number of active fracturing fleets was 164, up 5. [2][9] - **Refinery Data**: US refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.82 million barrels per day, down 50,000 barrels per day, and the refinery operating rate was 94.9%, up 0.6 pct. [2][9] - **Import and Export Volume**: US crude oil imports, exports, and net imports were 6.27/2.75/3.53 million barrels per day, with weekly changes of -47/-114/+67 million barrels per day. [2][9] - **Refined Oil Data**: US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel had weekly average prices of $83/$97/$90 per barrel, down $1.8/$1.5/$4.1 from last week respectively. Inventory, production, demand, and import and export volumes also changed. [2][11] 2. This Week's Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Market Review - **Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Performance**: Not detailed in the given content - **Sector Listed Company Performance**: Many listed companies in the petroleum and petrochemical sector showed different degrees of rise and fall this week. For example, Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation (600871.SH) had a weekly increase of 3.4%, and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (600028.SH) had a weekly decrease of 1.2%. [24] 3. Crude Oil Sector Data Tracking - **Crude Oil Price**: Analyzed the price relationships and spreads among various types of crude oil, such as Brent, WTI, Russian Urals, and Russian ESPO, as well as the relationships between the US dollar index, LME copper price, and WTI crude oil price. [9][38] - **Crude Oil Inventory**: Studied the correlations between US commercial crude oil inventory and oil prices, and changes in US total crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory. [45][49] - **Crude Oil Supply**: Focused on US crude oil production, the number of oil rigs, and the number of fracturing fleets, and their relationships with oil prices. [60][62] - **Crude Oil Demand**: Mainly looked at US refinery processing volume and operating rate. [9] - **Crude Oil Import and Export**: Analyzed US crude oil import, export, and net import volumes. [78] 4. Refined Oil Sector Data Tracking - **Refined Oil Price**: Analyzed the price adjustment rules of domestic refined oil based on international oil prices, and the price relationships and spreads between crude oil and refined oil in the US, Europe, and Singapore. [89][116] - **Refined Oil Inventory**: Studied the inventory changes of US gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and Singapore gasoline and diesel. [11][130] - **Refined Oil Supply**: Focused on US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel production. [152] - **Refined Oil Demand**: Mainly looked at US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel consumption and the number of US airport passenger security checks. [156][157] - **Refined Oil Import and Export**: Analyzed US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel import, export, and net export volumes. [170][173] 5. Oil Service Sector Data Tracking - **Day Rate**: Presented the average daily rates of self - elevating drilling platforms and semi - submersible drilling platforms. [187][188] Recommended Companies - Recommended companies include CNOOC Limited (600938.SH/0883.HK), PetroChina Company Limited (601857.SH/0857.HK), Sinopec (600028.SH/0386.HK), CNOOC Oilfield Services Limited (601808.SH), Offshore Oil Engineering Co., Ltd. (600583.SH), and CNOOC Energy Technology & Services Limited (600968.SH). Companies to be concerned about include Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation (600871.SH/1033.HK), China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corporation (600339.SH), and Sinopec Machinery Co., Ltd. (000852.SZ) [3]

Core Insights - The semiconductor foundry industry is experiencing significant differentiation, with TSMC capturing the majority of revenue growth, indicating a recovery from the industry's low point [1][5][34] - TSMC's revenue reached $30.239 billion in Q2 2025, commanding a market share of 70.2%, positioning it as the dominant player in the market [2][6] - The overall landscape shows a trend of "one strong, many strong," with TSMC's advanced processes leading the way while other companies face various challenges [6][14] Company Performance - TSMC's half-year revenue totaled $55.6 billion, with a gross margin of 58.7% and a net profit of $24 billion, showcasing its strong market position [6][19] - Samsung Foundry's revenue for the first half was less than $6.2 billion, with a market share around 7%, highlighting its struggles compared to TSMC [10][27] - SMIC reported a half-year revenue of $4.46 billion, with a gross margin of 21.4%, but faced challenges with high depreciation costs and limited average selling price (ASP) increases [11][30] Market Trends - The demand for AI and high-performance computing (HPC) is driving the polarization of advanced processes and packaging, with TSMC positioned as a key player in this shift [15][19] - The mature process segment is undergoing a structural recovery after a period of inventory clearance, with companies like UMC and VIS showing improved margins [21][22] - Geopolitical factors are reshaping the global supply chain, leading to a trend of localized production and a more fragmented capacity distribution [22][24] Future Outlook - TSMC plans to expand its CoWoS packaging capacity, which is critical for AI chip production, with orders already extending into 2026 [26][34] - Samsung is betting on its 2nm process to regain competitiveness, but faces risks associated with its current market position [27][28] - For companies like SMIC and Huahong, improving profitability will be crucial for maintaining their positions in the global supply chain [29][31]