Index Trends - On July 17th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to close at 3516.83 points with a trading volume of 609.791 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.43% to close at 10873.62 points with a trading volume of 929.578 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.14% with a trading volume of 325.984 billion yuan, opening at 6458.41, closing at 6535.67, with a high of 6535.67 and a low of 6451.15 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 1.08% with a trading volume of 235.043 billion yuan, opening at 6013.71, closing at 6082.46, with a high of 6082.46 and a low of 6013.04 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose 0.68% with a trading volume of 325.517 billion yuan, opening at 4005.07, closing at 4034.49, with a high of 4034.59 and a low of 4005.07 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.12% with a trading volume of 74.646 billion yuan, opening at 2737.35, closing at 2744.26, with a high of 2744.74 and a low of 2732.35 [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 73.61 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Medicine & Biology, Electronics, and Machinery having a significant upward pull on the index [3]. - The CSI 500 rose 65.27 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Electronics, Medicine & Biology, and National Defense & Military Industry having a significant upward pull on the index [3]. - The SSE 300 rose 27.29 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Electronics, Communication, and Medicine & Biology having a significant upward pull on the index [3]. - The SSE 50 rose 3.36 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Food & Beverage, Medicine & Biology, and National Defense & Military Industry having a significant upward pull, while sectors such as Transportation, Communication, and Banking had a downward pull [3]. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of -8.13, IM01 -75.98, IM02 -151.1, and IM03 -336.78 [14]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of -1.49, IC01 -54.76, IC02 -108.14, and IC03 -235.3 [14]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of -3.57, IF01 -15.25, IF02 -27.9, and IF03 -63.8 [14]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of -2.73, IH01 -5.16, IH02 -5.96, and IH03 -4.36 [14]. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on the roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 are presented in detailed tables [25][26][27][28].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No related content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PG market is mainly oscillating. The basis weakened slightly to 340 (-9), and the monthly spread also weakened slightly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4496. The import cost increased, and the external market price rose slightly. The domestic - foreign price difference weakened, and the US - Asia arbitrage window opened. This week, the arrivals increased, chemical demand decreased, combustion demand was average, and port inventory increased by 6.92%. Factory inventories were basically flat with regional differentiation. The PDH operating rate decreased to 60.87% (-3.12pct) but is expected to increase in the future. Overall, prices in Shandong and East China may rise due to chemical demand support, while the focus in South China is expected to move down due to weak combustion demand [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price and Market Data - On July 1, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, etc. were recorded, and there were corresponding daily changes. For example, the daily change of South China LPG was -50, and the daily change of Shandong LPG was 0. The 08 - 09 monthly spread was 93 at one point and then 86 (-11), and the 08 - 10 monthly spread was -332 (-38) [1] Market Conditions - FEI and CP followed the decline of crude oil, the CP discount was basically flat, PP oscillated, and the production profit of FEI - and CP - based PP improved. The CP production cost was lower than that of FEI. The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed [1] Fundamental Situation - This week, the arrivals increased, chemical demand decreased, combustion demand was average, and port inventory increased by 6.92%. Factory inventories were basically flat with regional differentiation. East China accumulated inventory due to typhoon weather and weak combustion terminal demand, while South China had weak supply - demand and factory destocking. The PDH operating rate decreased to 60.87% (-3.12pct), but it is expected to increase in the future as some enterprises are expected to resume or increase production. Gasoline terminal demand was poor, MTBE was weakly sorted, and combustion demand was weak. The number of registered warehouse receipts was 8304 (-10) [1]

Report Overview - Report Title: Asphalt Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: July 18, 2025 [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - No clear core viewpoint is presented in the provided content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - BU主力合约 price on July 17 was 3628, with a daily increase of 5 and an interval increase of 5 [4]. - BU06 price was 3384, down 4 daily and up 30 interval [4]. - BU09 price was 3628, up 5 daily and 5 interval [4]. - BU12 price was 3450, unchanged daily and up 10 interval [4]. - BU03 price was 3409, up 4 daily and 26 interval [4]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - Trading volume on July 17 was 255138, an increase of 104119 from the previous day and 31904 interval [4]. - Open interest was 474048, an increase of 5640 daily and 5027 interval [4]. Spot Market - Shandong market low - end price on July 17 was 3570, up 10 daily and down 30 interval [4]. - East China market low - end price was 3670, unchanged daily and interval [4]. - South China market low - end price was 3580, unchanged daily and down 20 interval [4]. - North China market low - end price was 3750, unchanged daily and interval [4]. - Northeast market low - end price was 3900, unchanged daily and up 50 interval [4]. Basis and Monthly Spread - Shandong basis was - 58, up 5 daily and down 35 interval [4]. - East China basis was 42, down 5 daily and 5 interval [4]. - South China basis was - 48, down 5 daily and 25 interval [4]. - 03 - 06 spread was 25, up 8 daily and down 4 interval [4]. - 06 - 09 spread was - 244, down 9 daily [4]. - 09 - 12 spread was 178, up 5 daily and down 5 interval [4]. - 12 - 03 spread was 41, down 4 daily and 16 interval [4]. Crack Spread and Profit - Asphalt Brent crack spread was - 21, up 17 daily and down 23 interval [4]. - Asphalt Ma Rui profit was - 87, up 15 daily and down 20 interval [4]. - Ordinary refinery comprehensive profit was 452, up 6 daily and down 44 interval [4]. - Import profit (South Korea - East China) was - 154, down 3 daily [4]. - Import profit (Singapore - South China) was - 980, down 3 daily and 17 interval [4]. Related Prices - Brent crude oil price on July 17 was 68.5, down 0.2 daily and 0.1 interval [4]. - Shandong gasoline market price was 7805, down 5 daily and 26 interval [4]. - Shandong diesel market price was 6696, up 4 daily and down 115 interval [4]. - Shandong residue oil market price was 3700, unchanged daily and up 85 interval [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The LPG market is mainly in a state of shock, with the basis and monthly spreads slightly weakening. The import cost has increased, and the external market price has risen slightly. The supply and demand situation shows that the arrival volume has increased this week, chemical demand has decreased, and combustion demand is average. The port inventory has increased by 6.92%, and the factory inventory is basically flat with regional differentiation. It is expected that the prices in Shandong and East China may rise supported by chemical demand, while the focus in South China is expected to move down due to weak combustion demand [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From July 1 to July 6, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, etc. showed certain fluctuations. For example, the price of South China LPG was 4630 on July 1 and 4620 on July 6, with a daily change of 0. The prices of other products also had corresponding changes [1] Market Situation - On Wednesday, the cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4486. FEI and CP continued to decline, and the CP discount dropped significantly. PP fluctuated, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP improved. The PG disk oscillated, and the monthly spread oscillated, with the latest 08 - 09 spread at 93. The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed [1] Weekly Outlook - The overall disk is mainly in a state of shock. The basis has weakened slightly to 340 (-9), and the monthly spreads have also weakened slightly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4496. The import cost has increased, and the external market price has risen slightly. The supply and demand situation shows that the arrival volume has increased this week, chemical demand has decreased, and combustion demand is average. The port inventory has increased by 6.92%, and the factory inventory is basically flat with regional differentiation. It is expected that the prices in Shandong and East China may rise supported by chemical demand, while the focus in South China is expected to move down due to weak combustion demand [1] Demand Situation - The PDH operating rate has decreased to 60.87% (-3.12 pct), but it is expected to increase in the future. Next week, Xintai Petrochemical and Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase III are expected to resume operation, and some operating enterprises will gradually increase their loads. Many PDH plants are expected to restart at the end of July. The gasoline terminal demand is poor, and MTBE is weakly sorted. The combustion demand is weak [1] Inventory and Supply - The port inventory has increased by 6.92%, and the factory inventory is basically flat with regional differentiation. East China has accumulated inventory due to typhoon weather and weak combustion terminal demand, while South China has a weak supply - demand situation and the factory has reduced inventory. The external supply has decreased, and it is expected that the commodity volume will first decrease and then increase in the next three weeks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses different levels of stock investment strategies and introduces the concept of market-neutral strategies as a way to mitigate market volatility and enhance returns [2][21]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - There are three levels of investment strategies: 1. **Beginner Level**: Randomly selecting stocks, which can lead to high volatility and uncertain profits [5][7]. 2. **Intermediate Level**: Selecting stocks based on specific criteria, such as market capitalization, which reduces volatility compared to individual stocks [9][11]. 3. **Advanced Level**: Selecting stocks from a pool based on multiple criteria, often using quantitative strategies to achieve excess returns [13][15]. Group 2: Market-Neutral Strategies - Market-neutral strategies involve going long on stocks expected to outperform the market while simultaneously shorting core indices using stock index futures [23][24][26]. - The cost of hedging in these strategies is referred to as the basis, which is the difference between spot prices and futures prices [28][33]. - In the domestic market, a common situation is that the spot price exceeds the futures price, leading to a state known as contango [30]. - An example illustrates the potential outcomes of a market-neutral strategy based on the relationship between spot and futures prices at expiration [34][36].

Report Overview - The report is titled "Guangda Futures Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report", dated July 17, 2025, focusing on iron ore futures contracts, basis, and variety spreads [1] Futures Contracts - The closing prices of I05, I09, and I01 contracts are 721.5, 773.0, and 741.5 respectively, with changes of 3.0, 6.0, and 3.0 compared to the previous day [3] - The spreads of I05 - I09, I09 - I01, and I01 - I05 are -51.5, 31.5, and 20.0 respectively, with changes of -3.0, 3.0, and 0.0 compared to the previous day [3] Basis Data - The basis data of various iron ore varieties are presented, such as the basis of Carajás fines is 47 today, up 4 from the previous day, while the basis of PB fines is 27 today, down 2 from the previous day [6] Chart - Multiple charts show the basis trends of different iron ore varieties over time, including Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, etc [8][9][10] Variety Spreads Data - The variety spreads of different iron ore products are provided, for example, the spread of PB lump - PB fines is 150.0 today, up 6 from the previous day, and the spread of PB fines - mixed fines is 72.0 today, down 2 from the previous day [13] Chart - A series of charts illustrate the spread trends of different iron ore product combinations, like block - powder spreads, high - medium grade powder spreads, etc [16][19][20] Contract Adjustments - According to relevant regulations, the iron ore futures contract has been adjusted, including adding 4 deliverable varieties (Benxi concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian concentrate) with brand premiums of 0 since the I2202 contract [11] - Adjusting the brand premiums of existing varieties, with only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines having a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and the rest being 0 [11] - Modifying the quality differences and premiums of substitutes, including adjusting the allowable range of iron grade and other element indicators and their corresponding premiums [11] - Adding 4 new deliverable brands (Taigang concentrate, Magang concentrate, Wugang standard powder, SP10 powder) with brand premiums of 0 [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures showing a volatile trend, closing with a doji star, accompanied by shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with more reduction in long positions. The short - term market may experience a volatile consolidation. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average with strong support. The short - term KDJ indicator is declining, and the trend indicator shows that the long - side strength is decreasing while the short - side strength is increasing. The operation suggestion for Shanghai zinc ZN2509 is to expect a volatile consolidation [20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. The global zinc ore production from January to April was 4.0406 million tons, which is a positive factor [2]. 2. Basis Analysis - The spot price was 22,070, and the basis was +40, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3. Inventory Analysis - On July 16, the LME zinc inventory increased by 2,750 tons to 121,350 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 977 tons to 12,161 tons, which is a negative factor [2]. 4. Market Quotes 4.1 Futures Exchange Quotes on July 16 - For different delivery months of zinc futures, prices generally declined. For example, the contract 2508 had a previous settlement of 22,105, a closing price of 22,045, a decrease of 60; the contract 2509 had a previous settlement of 22,105, a closing price of 22,030, a decrease of 75 [3]. 4.2 Domestic Spot Market Quotes on July 16 - The price of zinc concentrate was 16,800 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price of zinc ingot was 22,070 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of galvanized sheet was 3,949 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the price of galvanized pipe was 4,289 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of zinc alloy was 22,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of zinc powder was 26,790 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price of zinc oxide was 20,450 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of secondary zinc oxide was 7,694 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 4.3 National Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (July 3 - July 14, 2025) - The total inventory in major domestic markets increased from 63,900 tons on July 3 to 74,200 tons on July 14. Compared with July 7, it increased by 4,200 tons; compared with July 10, it increased by 1,500 tons [5]. 4.4 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on July 16 - The total zinc warrants in Shanghai were 25 tons (unchanged); in Guangdong, 3,607 tons (unchanged); in Jiangsu, 0 tons (unchanged); in Zhejiang, 0 tons (unchanged); in Tianjin, 8,529 tons (an increase of 977 tons), with a total of 12,161 tons (an increase of 977 tons) [6]. 4.5 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on July 16 - The total LME zinc inventory was 121,350 tons, an increase of 2,750 tons compared to the previous day. The registered warrants were 97,375 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 23,975 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 19.76% [8]. 4.6 National Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on July 16 - Zinc concentrate prices in most regions were around 16,800 - 17,000 yuan/ton, with a decline of 80 yuan/ton [9]. 4.7 National Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on July 16 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters all decreased by 100 yuan/ton, such as Hunan Zhizhixing with a price of 22,410 yuan/ton, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry with 25,350 yuan/ton, etc. [13]. 4.8 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - The planned production in June was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and 2.63% higher than the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production for July was 470,300 tons [15]. 4.9 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on July 16 - The processing fees for domestic 50% grade zinc concentrate were mainly in the range of 3,400 - 4,000 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% grade was 50 - 70 US dollars/dry ton [17]. 4.10 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on July 16 - In the trading volume ranking of the zn2509 contract, the top three were Guotai Junan (22,277 lots, an increase of 658), CITIC Futures (18,260 lots, a decrease of 1,345), and Huatai Futures (13,749 lots, a decrease of 287). In the long - position ranking, the top three were CITIC Futures (20,394 lots, a decrease of 831), Qiankun Futures (7,436 lots, a decrease of 889), and Guotai Junan (7,280 lots, a decrease of 376). In the short - position ranking, the top three were CITIC Futures (11,003 lots, an increase of 291), Guotai Junan (9,558 lots, an increase of 1,347), and Zhongtai Futures (4,612 lots, an increase of 110) [18].

Report Information - Report Title: Fuel Oil Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: July 16, 2025 [1] Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur crack spread oscillated downward, the near-month spread declined, and the EW continued to weaken. The 380 8-9 month spread weakened to $1.75, the basis weakened and then oscillated, the FU09 internal and external spread rebounded slightly, and the domestic delivery volume was large, maintaining a loose pattern. The Singapore 0.5 crack spread declined slightly, the month spread weakened, and the 8-9 month spread oscillated around $4.5. The LU internal and external spread weakened slightly and then oscillated, with the 09 around $16. [4][5] - This week, Singapore's onshore inventory increased significantly, the window was under delivery pressure, the near month was under pressure, and Saudi Arabia's shipments increased month-on-month. Recently, the exports of fuel oil from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, Egypt's net imports reached a new high, and the high-sulfur supply and demand was still in the peak season, but the East-West and internal-external spreads had dropped rapidly. The external low-sulfur valuation was high, and the LU internal and external spread was running at a high level. Attention should be paid to the domestic production situation. [5] - The Singapore Hi-5 spread reached a new high this year, both 380cst and VLSFO weakened, the domestic FU internal and external spread rebounded slightly, and the LU valuation was high. Attention could be paid to the short-term valuation regression opportunity of FU-LU, with the risk of continuous weakening of the external 380cst. [5] Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/07/09 | 2025/07/10 | 2025/07/11 | 2025/07/14 | 2025/07/15 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 427.74 | 416.69 | 420.81 | 410.97 | 412.56 | 1.59 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 476.00 | 467.49 | 475.48 | 469.20 | 466.16 | -3.04 | | Rotterdam HSFO-Brent M1 | -1.75 | -2.05 | -2.86 | -3.55 | -3.12 | 0.43 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 675.03 | 662.16 | 681.86 | 673.49 | 674.99 | 1.50 | | Rotterdam VLSFO-Gasoil M1 | -199.03 | -194.67 | -206.38 | -204.29 | -208.83 | -4.54 | | LGO-Brent M1 | 22.33 | 22.20 | 23.03 | 23.04 | 23.87 | 0.83 | | Rotterdam VLSFO-HSFO M1 | 48.26 | 50.80 | 54.67 | 58.23 | 53.60 | -4.63 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/07/09 | 2025/07/10 | 2025/07/11 | 2025/07/14 | 2025/07/15 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 426.95 | 426.30 | 412.36 | 411.55 | 404.43 | -7.12 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 434.39 | 434.01 | 421.80 | 421.36 | 414.93 | -6.43 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 507.25 | 504.61 | 497.43 | 507.96 | 496.15 | -11.81 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 90.06 | 88.88 | 87.89 | 90.87 | 87.86 | -3.01 | | Singapore 380cst-Brent M1 | -2.03 | -1.67 | -2.86 | -4.96 | -4.13 | 0.83 | | Singapore VLSFO-Gasoil M1 | -159.19 | -153.10 | -152.96 | -164.48 | -154.01 | 10.47 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/07/09 | 2025/07/10 | 2025/07/11 | 2025/07/14 | 2025/07/15 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 420.79 | 418.55 | 404.43 | 402.60 | 395.38 | -7.22 | | FOB VLSFO | 516.44 | 512.29 | 504.95 | 514.89 | 501.64 | -13.25 | | 380 Basis | -5.30 | -5.40 | -6.05 | -7.05 | -6.98 | 0.07 | | High-Sulfur Internal-External Spread | -10.3 | -10.1 | -7.6 | -5.9 | -7.0 | -1.1 | | Low-Sulfur Internal-External Spread | 16.6 | 17.4 | 16.4 | 16.5 | 16.1 | -0.4 | [3] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/07/09 | 2025/07/10 | 2025/07/11 | 2025/07/14 | 2025/07/15 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2902 | 2910 | 2855 | 2883 | 2828 | -55 | | FU 05 | 2837 | 2848 | 2803 | 2825 | 2788 | -37 | | FU 09 | 2982 | 2972 | 2911 | 2922 | 2840 | -82 | | FU 01-05 | 65 | 62 | 52 | 58 | 40 | -18 | | FU 05-09 | -145 | -124 | -108 | -97 | -52 | 45 | | FU 09-01 | 80 | 62 | 56 | 39 | 12 | -27 | [3] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/07/09 | 2025/07/10 | 2025/07/11 | 2025/07/14 | 2025/07/15 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3568 | 3567 | 3520 | 3583 | 3529 | -54 | | LU 05 | 3472 | 3491 | 3451 | 3502 | 3451 | -51 | | LU 09 | 3692 | 3687 | 3640 | 3694 | 3639 | -55 | | LU 01-05 | 96 | 76 | 69 | 81 | 78 | -3 | | LU 05-09 | -220 | -196 | -189 | -192 | -188 | 4 | | LU 09-01 | 124 | 120 | 120 | 111 | 110 | -1 | [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The LPG market is mainly in a state of oscillation. The basis has weakened slightly to 340 (-9), and the monthly spread has also weakened slightly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas. Import costs have risen, while the external price has increased slightly, and the oil - gas ratio remains basically flat. The internal - external spread has weakened, and the US - Asia arbitrage window has opened with a slight increase in freight rates. - In terms of fundamentals, arrivals will increase this week. Chemical demand has declined, while combustion demand is average. Terminal shipments are average, and port inventories have increased by 6.92%. Factory inventories are basically flat with regional differentiation. It is expected that the commodity volume will first decrease and then increase in the next three weeks. - Supported by chemical demand, prices in Shandong and East China may rise, while due to weak combustion demand, the price center in South China is expected to move down [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Price and Market Data - **Daily Price Changes**: From July 10 - 15, 2025, prices of various LPG - related products showed different trends. For example, South China LPG dropped by 20, and MB propane decreased by 25. The basis weakened by 9 to 340, and the 08 - 09 monthly spread decreased by 11 to 86, and the 08 - 10 monthly spread decreased by 38 to - 332 [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: FEI and CP decreased, CP production cost is lower than FEI, and the production profit of FEI and CP for PP changed little. Import costs increased, and the external price rose slightly, with the oil - gas ratio remaining flat [1]. - **Arbitrage Windows**: The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window was closed on Tuesday. The US - Asia arbitrage window opened, and freight rates increased slightly [1]. b) Fundamental Situation - **Supply**: Arrivals increased this week, and it is expected that the commodity volume will first decrease and then increase in the next three weeks [1]. - **Demand**: Chemical demand declined, gasoline terminal demand was poor, MTBE was weakly sorted, and combustion demand was average [1]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories increased by 6.92%, and factory inventories were basically flat with regional differentiation. East China accumulated inventory due to typhoon weather and weak combustion terminal demand, while South China had a supply - demand double - weak situation with factory destocking [1].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Copper prices may experience short - term range fluctuations due to the low concentrate processing fees, low copper prices testing smelting output, and a mix of positive and negative factors in downstream demand [2] - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range fluctuations as the concentrate processing fees are rising, and the market expects an improvement in concentrate supply and a recovery in smelting supply [2] Group 3: Summary by Variety Copper - Night - session copper prices closed lower. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices test smelting output. Downstream demand in China is generally stable and positive, with power industry in positive growth, auto production and sales growing, home appliance output growth slowing, and real estate remaining weak. Copper prices may range - fluctuate, and factors such as US tariffs, the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance output should be monitored [2] - The previous domestic futures closing price was 77,910 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 60 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 9,644 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 48.27 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 109,625 tons, and the daily change was 900 tons [2] Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed lower. Concentrate processing fees have been rising. Domestic auto production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and real estate is weak. The market expects an obvious improvement in concentrate supply and a possible recovery in smelting supply this year. Zinc prices may have wide - range fluctuations, and factors such as US tariffs, the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance output should be watched [2] - The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,010 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 15 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,733 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 9.95 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 113,400 tons, and the daily change was 8,150 tons [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,455 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 70 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,597 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 1.48 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 405,550 tons, and the daily change was 5,275 tons [2] - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 118,710 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,730 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,065 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 210.81 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 206,580 tons, and the daily change was 402 tons [2] - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,885 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 220 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,005 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 31.90 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 260,950 tons, and the daily change was 11,575 tons [2] - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 262,300 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 3,260 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 33,560 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 115.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 2,095 tons, and the daily change was 125 tons [2]