（原标题：加纳银行业利润将下降） 据"非洲简报"10月14日报道，惠誉报告指出，加纳央行近期降息虽反映经济稳 定性改善，却压缩了自2022年债务危机以来支撑银行盈利的净息差（NIMs）。受 货币政策收紧、塞地升值、财政紧缩和食品供应改善等因素影响，通胀显著回落， 9月降至9.4%，创四年新低。央行因此将政策利率下调350个基点至21.5%。惠誉预 计2026年通胀平均约8%，为进一步降息铺路。这标志着宏观经济复苏的转折，也 预示着银行收益将下降。 惠誉评级表示，由于利率下降侵蚀利润空间，加纳银行业明年利润预计将下 滑。但与地区同行相比，其盈利能力仍将保持强劲，支撑其独立信用实力。 货币市场收益率大幅下跌，91天期国债利率由25.1%降至10.2%，主要受到流 动性过剩和政府借贷需求下降推动。由于银行投资组合中公开市场工具占比高，其 回报率将随政策利率下行。大多数贷款为浮动利率，贷款利率同步下降，净息差已 从1月的14.8%降至8月的11.4%。未来进一步降息将加剧这一趋势，利润空间的收 窄将结束2022年债务重组以来高利率带来的资本缓冲期。 尽管息差收窄，但银行正从政府债券转向私人贷款。主权债收益下滑及监管机 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - China's M2 declined in September and was lower than expected, mainly due to a short - term sharp decrease in non - bank deposits. The overall M2 remained at a reasonable level, and the monetary policy continued to be loose. The new social financing decreased slightly year - on - year, mainly due to the decline in fiscal financing and the decrease in the financing demand of the household and enterprise sectors. The transmission from loose money to loose credit continued. Given the existing external shock risks and the stable domestic economic growth, the monetary policy will continue to be moderately loose. With fiscal efforts and the easing of external shocks, the financing demand of enterprises, households, and the government is expected to gradually recover, and the transmission from loose money to loose credit is expected to accelerate. In the short term, financial data has little impact on domestic risk assets and the RMB exchange rate, while in the long - term, the process of loose credit is expected to speed up as domestic support policies are implemented and take effect [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content M2 Situation - In September, M2 increased by 8.4% year - on - year, with an expected 8.5% and a previous value of 8.8%. The growth rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month and increased by 1.6 percentage points from the same period last year. The year - on - year growth rate of M2 declined and was lower than expected because of the large increase in enterprise and household deposits and the significant decrease in non - bank deposits due to the return of wealth management funds to the balance sheet. The overall money supply maintained reasonable growth. M1 increased by 7.2% year - on - year, 1.2 percentage points higher than the previous month and higher than the expected 6.1%, reflecting the improvement of enterprise profits and the continuous current - account of household and enterprise deposits. M0 increased by 11.5% year - on - year, down 0.2%. With M1 rising and M2 remaining high, the overall capital supply remained stable, and the monetary policy continued to be loose. Due to the stable domestic economic growth and existing external shock risks, the monetary policy will continue to be moderately loose. With the acceleration of debt resolution, the implementation of fiscal and real - estate policies, and the short - term improvement of the real - estate market, the demand for credit creation will pick up, and M2 is expected to rise in the short term [1][2]. New RMB Loans - In September, new RMB loans were 129 billion yuan, with an expected 1460 billion yuan and a previous value of 59 billion yuan, 30 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The new loans in September were less than the same period last year and lower than market expectations, mainly due to the decline in bill financing and household loans. New household short - term loans were 14.21 billion yuan, 12.79 billion yuan less than the same period last year, and new household long - term loans were 25 billion yuan, 2 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The decline in household loans may reflect the weak income expectations of households. The long - term loans were moderately boosted by the optimized real - estate demand policies in first - tier cities. New enterprise loans were 122 billion yuan, 27 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Short - term and long - term loans were 71 billion and 91 billion yuan respectively, with short - term loans increasing by 25 billion yuan and long - term loans decreasing by 5 billion yuan year - on - year, partly affected by local governments' repayment of enterprise arrears. The new bill financing was - 40.26 billion yuan, 47.12 billion yuan less than the same period last year, and off - balance - sheet bills increased year - on - year, possibly reflecting the decline in banks' bill - padding demand at the end of the quarter [1][3][4]. Social Financing Scale - In September, the increment of the social financing scale was 353.37 billion yuan, with an expected 335 billion yuan and a previous value of 256.68 billion yuan, 22.98 billion yuan less than the same period last year. At the end of September, the stock of the social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month. The transmission from loose money to loose credit continued. In terms of the structure of new social financing, the credit financing demand of the real economy decreased year - on - year, with household credit demand picking up and enterprise credit decreasing. Enterprise bond financing increased, government bond issuance continued to accelerate, and non - standard financing demand rose. New credit in September was 160.8 billion yuan, 36.62 billion yuan less than the same period last year, mainly related to the decline in the bill financing demand of households and real - economy enterprises. Non - standard assets such as trust loans, entrusted loans, and bank acceptances not yet discounted increased by 35.79 billion yuan in total, 18.69 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Enterprise bond financing increased by 1.05 billion yuan, 20.31 billion yuan more than the same period last year, mainly supported by the issuance of science and technology innovation bonds and private enterprise bonds. Government bond net financing was 118.86 billion yuan, 34.71 billion yuan less than the same period last year, mainly due to the large - scale issuance of government bonds in the same period last year. Overall, the financing demand of the real - economy sector decreased year - on - year. In the short - and medium - term, due to the negative impact of tariffs, the government will continue to expand financing. The enterprise sector's financing demand is expected to improve gradually in the long - term, and the household sector's financing demand is expected to continue the slow recovery trend. Although the current social financing demand has declined slightly year - on - year in the short term, the process of loose credit is expected to accelerate in the long - term as the domestic monetary policy continues to be loose and support policies are further strengthened and implemented [1][5].

米兰强调美联储必须保持政治中立与专业聚焦。他表示："美联储必须被视为一个诚实的参与者，绝不 能卷入气候变化、种族政治等问题。"他还呼吁，"美联储官员必须平等对待所有政府政策，而不仅仅是 强调关税"，并补充道："美联储必须讨论所有政府政策，否则一概不谈。" 新华财经北京10月16日电美联储理事米兰16日直言当前货币政策"过于紧缩"，并呼吁在10月28日至29日 的FOMC会议上降息50个基点，以应对再度浮现的经济不确定性。 米兰强调："政策维持紧缩的时间越长，下行风险越大。"他指出，由于中性利率迅速上升，今年货币政 策实际上已收紧约1.5个百分点。尽管美国经济"相当不错"，但他警告，"25个基点的降息导致利率调整 速度慢于实际需求"，难以有效缓冲潜在冲击。 米兰主张货币政策应"以预测为导向，而非以数据为导向"。他坦言："有政府数据会好得多，利用替代 数据追踪通胀颇具挑战性。"这一立场与其对当前政策节奏的批评相呼应——他认为仅依赖滞后数据可 能导致反应迟缓。 米兰重申支持本月大幅降息的理由："如果货币政策维持目前的紧缩水平，而经济又遭受类似冲击，这 将显著放大该冲击的负面影响。"他提及"上周出现的风险"增加了降息 ...

Core Insights - The financial condition of American consumers has weakened compared to the peak during the pandemic, leading to more cautious spending behavior despite ongoing consumer expenditure supported by low unemployment and wage growth [1][2] - There is a structural shift in the labor market where companies are neither hiring nor laying off, indicating a significant change in the supply-demand relationship for labor [1] - The rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in sectors like coding and call centers is driving productivity growth, which may help alleviate some cost pressures and support inflation control [1] Consumer Spending - Consumers are making trade-offs in their spending, indicating a shift from the more generous spending patterns observed in 2022 [1] - The spending capacity of households is increasingly constrained, particularly among middle and lower-income groups, while demand remains strong among higher-income individuals [1] Labor Market - The labor market is experiencing a notable change, with a high number of job seekers for each position, reflecting a significant shift in the dynamics of labor supply and demand [1] - Companies are facing a situation where labor demand and supply are shrinking at the same rate [1] Productivity and AI - The integration of AI technologies is seen as a factor that could significantly improve productivity, potentially offsetting some of the cost pressures faced by businesses [1] External Policy Uncertainty - Businesses are planning to pass on tariffs to consumers, indicating that trade policies are beginning to affect price transmission [1] - The current decision-making environment is complex, with the Federal Reserve facing higher uncertainty in monetary policy formulation due to fluctuating high-frequency data and accelerated structural changes [2]

美联储巴尔：稳定币不太可能对货币政策产生影响。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the current economic situation, particularly focusing on CPI and PPI data, indicating a lack of inflation and a need for continued monetary and fiscal policy support [5][6][10] - In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year and increased by 0.1% month-on-month, while the PPI fell by 2.3% year-on-year, suggesting weak consumer demand and manufacturing prices [1][3] - The article highlights the importance of M1 and M2 monetary supply data, with M2 growing by 8.4% year-on-year and M1 by 7.2%, indicating a narrowing gap between the two, which reflects a shift in liquidity dynamics [6][8][9] Group 2 - The increase in M1 is attributed to a decline in government bond prices, leading individuals to withdraw funds from fixed-term investments and place them into demand deposits [9][10] - In September, household deposits rose by 2.96 trillion yuan, while non-bank financial institution deposits fell by 1.06 trillion yuan, indicating a trend of funds returning to banks rather than remaining in investment accounts [10][11] - The article suggests that the current market volatility and lack of clear upward trends in the stock market have led to a decrease in the attractiveness of non-bank investments, resulting in a return of funds to traditional banking [12][13] Group 3 - The article anticipates that the government will continue to stimulate the capital market to encourage investment and support economic recovery, as the current economic conditions necessitate such actions [15][18] - It discusses the potential for a bull market in the A-share market, suggesting that as long as there is a need to escape deflation, the market will continue to seek upward momentum [19][20] - Upcoming key events, including trade negotiations and monetary policy decisions, are expected to influence market behavior, with a recommendation for strategic asset allocation in anticipation of these developments [21][22]

Core Insights - The overall financial data for September indicates stability, with significant growth in both broad (M2) and narrow (M1) money supply, supporting economic recovery [2][6][9] - The increase in RMB loans and social financing reflects strong support for the real economy, although there are signs of seasonal adjustments in credit issuance [3][9] Monetary Supply - As of September, the broad money supply (M2) reached 335.38 trillion yuan, growing by 8.4% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 113.15 trillion yuan, up 7.2% year-on-year [6][7] - The narrowing gap between M2 and M1 indicates improved liquidity and a more active economy, with M2-M1 "scissors difference" at its lowest in nearly four years [7][9] Loan Growth - In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, with September alone contributing 1.29 trillion yuan, although this was 300 billion yuan less than the previous year [3][4] - Corporate loans in September rose by 1.22 trillion yuan, while household loans increased by 389 billion yuan, indicating a mixed performance across sectors [4][5] Social Financing - The total social financing scale reached 437.08 trillion yuan by the end of September, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, although the monthly increase was lower than in previous years [9][10] - The decline in new social financing in September was attributed to reduced government bond issuance and lower corporate loan growth compared to the previous year [9][10] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the fourth quarter will see continued supportive monetary policy to bolster economic recovery, with expectations of new policy financial tools to support corporate loans [10][11] - The stability and sustainability of retail loan growth will depend on improvements in employment and income levels, which are crucial for boosting consumer demand [5][10]

Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.10% to 3916.23 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.25% to 13086.41 points [4] - Market sentiment is cautious, with trading volume decreasing to below 2 trillion yuan, indicating reduced investor activity [1] Financial Data - In September, new social financing amounted to 3.53 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 229.7 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.7% [2] - New RMB loans totaled 1.29 trillion yuan, down by 300 billion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate of 6.6% [2] - The significant decrease in non-bank deposits is attributed to a high base from the previous year and the return of wealth management funds at the end of the quarter [1] Policy Initiatives - The National Development and Reform Commission, along with five other departments, issued a plan to double the service capacity of electric vehicle charging facilities by 2027, aiming to establish 28 million charging facilities nationwide [2][3] - This policy is seen as a crucial measure to boost electric vehicle consumption and address infrastructure shortcomings, potentially benefiting sectors related to charging equipment manufacturing, operation services, and the electric vehicle supply chain [3] Sector Performance - In the A-share market, coal, banking, and food and beverage sectors showed the highest gains, with increases of 2.35%, 1.35%, and 0.97% respectively [4] - Conversely, the steel, non-ferrous metals, and building materials sectors experienced the largest declines, with decreases of 2.14%, 2.06%, and 1.86% respectively [4] Capital Flow - The market's trading volume was recorded at 19,488.83 billion yuan, showing a decline from the previous trading day [5] - The margin financing balance increased to 24,494.21 billion yuan, indicating a slight rise in leveraged trading activity [5]

据日本媒体援引集体采访报道，美国财政部长贝森特表示，如果日本央行继续执行正确的货币政策，日元将自行稳定在适当水平。 据共同社和《日经新闻》报道，贝森特拒绝对日元的具体水平发表评论。本月，日元的贬值速度至少是其他主要货币的两倍，并于10月10日触及153.27的8 个月低点，对日本央行近期加息的猜测降温是这一走势的关键因素。 周四欧盘前，美元兑日元汇率有所反弹，重回151关口附近。 负责包括干预在内的货币政策的日本财务大臣加藤胜信的言论也支撑了日元。加藤在华盛顿对记者表示，他看到了日元正朝着疲软的方向快速变动。 据《日经新闻》报道，贝森特拒绝对日本央行行长植田和男在10月30日的下一次政策决定发表评论。报道称，这位财长仅表示植田和男非常有能力。 日本的通胀已连续三年多保持在或高于2%的水平，而实际工资在大部分时间内都在下降。在8月份接受采访时，贝森特表示，日本央行未来将会加息，因为 它需要控制其通胀问题。 贝森特最近有关日本央行的言论比他8月份的语气要温和，当时他曾表示日本央行在应对通胀方面行动迟缓。这一评论再次提醒了华盛顿对日本货币的立 场，因为美国总统特朗普偶尔会指责日本为提升其贸易竞争优势而削弱本国货币。 ...

此外，外部风险因素继续强化避险需求。近期，全球贸易担忧情绪再度升温。美亚双方互征港口附加 费，增加了海运成本。市场认为，此举不仅可能推高企业成本，也会对全球经济复苏带来拖累。 在货币政策层面，日本央行（BoJ）委员田村直树在周四表示，日本经济增速有望上升，海外放缓程度 或不如预期严重，央行应逐步推动利率接近"中性区间"。 这一偏"鹰派"的表态，与美联储可能在10月与12月各降息25个基点的预期形成鲜明对比。市场数据显 示，美联储年内两次降息的概率接近100%，而日本加息预期上升，进一步强化了日元的相对优势。 周四（10月16日）亚洲时段，美元/日元一度触及逾一周低点，随后小幅回升重新站上151.00点大关， 最新美元兑日元汇率报151.0500，涨幅0.01%。日本执政联盟的意外分裂在短期内反而缓解了市场对日 本财政健康的担忧，支撑日元兑美元连续三日走强。 交易员普遍认为，执政的自由民主党（LDP）与公明党的联盟破裂，是导致日元升值的主要触发因素。 这场政治动荡使自民党新任领导人高市早苗(Sanae Takaichi）成为日本首位女性首相的道路充满不确定 性，但同时也降低了市场对财政扩张的担忧，从而提振了日元 ...