| 田银万国期货 | | --- | 2026 年 2 月 2 日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银 | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | chenmy@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50585911 | | | | | | 沪金 2606 | 沪金 2604 | 沪银 2606 | 沪银 2604 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 1163.36 | 1161.420 | 27254 | 27941 | | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 1252.10 | 1249.120 | 30055 | 30891 | | | 货 | 涨跌 | -88.74 | -87.700 | -2801 | -2950 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -7.09% | -7.02% | -9.32% | -9.55% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 83704 | 187299 | 159582 | 260869 | | | | 成交量 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the gold and silver markets has been triggered by the nomination of a hawkish Federal Reserve chair, leading to significant price corrections after reaching historical highs [1][4]. Group 1: Event Catalysts - The immediate cause of the gold price drop was Trump's nomination of the hawkish candidate, Waller, for the Federal Reserve chair, which raised concerns about tighter monetary policy and led to a sell-off in gold [4]. - The market's reaction was exacerbated by fears of a government shutdown, increasing liquidity concerns and risk aversion among investors [4]. - The underlying market structure was already fragile, with gold prices having surged to nearly $5,600 per ounce, and implied volatility reaching over 46%, indicating a high sensitivity to negative news [4]. Group 2: Short-term Volatility - Gold has entered a high volatility phase, with technical correction pressures, but extreme volatility often leads to concentrated selling pressure, potentially creating a rebound opportunity [6]. - Historical patterns suggest that after extreme volatility peaks, gold prices can experience significant fluctuations without necessarily indicating a trend reversal [6]. - The current market pricing of Waller's policies may be premature, as the feasibility of his hawkish stance amid economic pressures is uncertain [6]. Group 3: Long-term Logic - The long-term upward trend for gold remains intact, supported by three core pillars: monetary easing, global de-dollarization, and geopolitical risks [7][10]. - The global interest rate cycle is expected to continue, with a projected easing period starting in September 2024, which will lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [7]. - Central banks are actively increasing gold reserves, with notable purchases from China and Poland, providing solid long-term support for gold prices [7][10]. Group 4: Investment Direction - Investors are encouraged to utilize gold ETFs and other investment tools to capitalize on market fluctuations and long-term trends [13]. - The gold ETF linked to physical gold is recommended for those seeking lower volatility, while gold stock ETFs may offer higher returns during price increases [13]. - For broader resource exposure, mining ETFs that cover various commodities are suggested, as they may provide strong profit potential amid resource scarcity [13].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - In 2025, global gold demand increased by 8% year-on-year to 4,999.4 tons, with investment demand surging by 84% to 2,175.3 tons [2][27] - Total gold supply in 2025 grew by 1% year-on-year to 5,002.3 tons, driven by record mining output and higher recycling supply [1][13] - The geopolitical and economic risks, along with a weakening dollar and high stock market valuations, were key drivers for the increased investment demand [3][41] Supply Summary - The total gold supply in 2025 reached 5,002 tons, marking the highest annual record since 1970, primarily due to record mining output and increased recycling [1][13] - Mining production is estimated to have reached a historical peak of 3,672 tons in 2025 [13][16] - The net hedging position of producers significantly decreased, indicating a shift in hedging strategies towards buying put options [22] Demand Summary - Jewelry demand globally decreased, with a notable drop in volume but an increase in value due to rising gold prices [2][31] - Investment demand for gold reached a new high, with total investment amounting to $240 billion in 2025 [3][41] - Central bank gold purchases remained strong, with a total of 863 tons bought in 2025, despite a decrease in some quarters due to high prices [6][51] Investment Summary - The investment environment for gold is expected to remain favorable in 2026, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [3][41] - Gold ETFs saw a record inflow of $89 billion in 2025, with total holdings reaching 4,025 tons [41][42] - The demand for gold bars and coins surged, particularly in India and China, with significant contributions to overall investment demand [44][46] Industrial Demand Summary - The technology sector's demand for gold remained stable, with a total of 323 tons in 2025, driven by the AI boom [7][58] - The electronics industry faced challenges due to rising costs and supply shortages, impacting overall demand [58][59] - The wireless applications sector showed growth in gold usage, particularly in AI and semiconductor technologies [61]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent stock market will continue to be driven by overseas factors. The market's confidence in credit currency has declined, and the belief in de - dollarization has deepened, leading to a re - evaluation of the commodity pricing anchor. However, due to the change in the Fed's stance, the re - evaluated precious metals have been re - evaluated in the opposite direction, which has a negative impact on the stock market. But domestic policies are expected to be positive, and there are still drivers for macro - economic repair and technological rise. The market may fall under external disturbances and then find support. Value stocks are expected to outperform growth stocks [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Last week, the stock market showed a volatile pattern, with small - cap style indexes performing weaker. Oil and petrochemicals, communications, and coal led the gains, while national defense and military industry, power equipment, and automobiles led the losses. The market was initially worried about large - fund policy regulation, and then the overall driving force was not obvious, mainly showing sector - based and structural theme markets. Precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy - chemical sectors were strong at the beginning of the week, and on Thursday, Kweichow Moutai's sharp rise drove the rebound of heavy - weight indexes. On Friday, with the sharp volatility of precious metals, related varieties adjusted significantly, suppressing risk appetite, and small - cap growth - style indexes fluctuated more significantly, while large - cap value indexes were relatively stable [1] - In the later stage, the market will be affected by overseas factors. The re - evaluation of the commodity pricing anchor and the change in the Fed's stance have a negative impact on the stock market. However, domestic policy expectations are positive, and the economic reality still has fluctuations, which supports the expectation of policy easing. The market may fall under external disturbances and then find support. Value stocks are expected to be stronger than growth stocks [2] - Factors to watch include local two - sessions and the Fed's policy direction [3] 3.2 Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term strategy**: The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 91 points/114 points, 74 points/45 points, 179 points/251 points, and 221 points/294 points respectively [4] - **Trend strategy**: Adopt an interval thinking. The core operating range of the IF2602 main contract is between 4592 and 4804 points; the IH2602 main contract is between 2991 and 3130 points; the IC2602 main contract is between 8042 and 8670 points; the IM2602 main contract is between 7993 and 8614 points [4] - **Cross - variety strategy**: Hold the strategy of going long on IF (or IH) and shorting IC (or IM) [5] 3.3 Spot Market Review - **Global stock indexes**: Last week, the Dow Jones Index fell 0.42%, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.34%, and the Nasdaq Index fell 0.17% in the US stock market. In the European stock market, the UK FTSE 100 Index rose 0.79%, the German DAX Index fell 1.5%, and the French CAC40 Index fell 0.2%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Nikkei 225 Index fell 0.97%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 2.38% [9] - **Domestic stock indexes**: Since 2025, major domestic indexes have shown different degrees of increase. Last week, most major domestic indexes fell [11] - **Industry performance**: In the CSI 300 Index, energy, telecommunications, and materials sectors led the gains, while information, optional consumption, and industrial sectors led the losses. In the CSI 500 Index, energy, telecommunications, and raw material sectors led the gains, while information, optional consumption, and public utility sectors led the losses [12] 3.4 Futures Market Review - **Futures contract performance**: Last week, the IH main contract had the largest increase, and the IC main contract had the largest amplitude among the stock index futures main contracts. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures both rebounded [15] - **Futures basis and cross - variety ratio**: The report shows the basis (futures - spot) trend of stock index futures main contracts and the cross - variety ratio of stock index futures main contracts [15] 3.5 Index Valuation Tracking - As of January 23, the P/E ratio (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index was 17.13 times, the CSI 300 Index was 14.12 times, the SSE 50 Index was 11.5 times, the CSI 500 Index was 37.53 times, and the CSI 1000 Index was 50.31 times [16][18] 3.6 Market Capital Flow Review - The report shows the balance of margin trading in the two markets, the share of newly established equity - biased funds, the short - term capital interest rate, and the net investment of the central bank [18][19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that China's manufacturing market demand has tightened, but production remains in an expansionary phase, with ongoing optimization of the industrial structure. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January 2026 is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The equipment manufacturing PMI stands at 50.1%, while the high-tech manufacturing PMI is at 52%, indicating stable development in these sectors [1] - International gold and silver prices experienced significant declines on January 30, with COMEX gold futures dropping 8.35% to $4,907.50 per ounce and COMEX silver futures falling 25.50% to $85.25 per ounce, marking some of the largest single-day declines in decades [1] Group 2 - In the precious metals sector, a sharp decline was observed, with spot silver dropping over 30% and spot gold over 10%. This volatility is attributed to two main factors: the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by Trump, which strengthened the dollar index, and a market correction following a period of rapid price increases [2][19] - Despite the short-term volatility, the long-term upward trend for precious metals remains intact due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. debt sustainability, which may lead to a high probability of interest rate cuts within the year [2][20] - In the oil market, the SC night market saw a decline of 2.67%. The easing of tensions in Venezuela and potential diplomatic engagement with Iran are noted as factors influencing the market [3][14] Group 3 - The copper market is experiencing a short-term adjustment phase, with prices down 0.47%. Supply remains tight, and while smelting profits are at breakeven, overall production continues to grow [21] - The zinc market also saw a slight decline of 0.23%, with tight supply conditions persisting and downstream demand showing mixed signals [22] - Aluminum prices fell by 2.82%, reflecting weak demand and increasing inventory levels, although long-term support is expected from low inventory and constrained supply [23]

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，开年短短一个月，黄金的表现就创下多项记录：1)上涨斜率几乎 超出了所有人的预期，虽然看多黄金是市场的主流，但短短一个月内涨幅高达25%，还是80年代以来的 首次，即便对于大多数黄金多头而言恐怕也始料未及;2)转眼间短暂超过5500美元/盎司后"满减"，一天 之内跌幅超过10%，也是1984年以来的前所未见。该行认为，若要彻底终结黄金这一趋势，需要看到美 国开始花大代价开始解决低通胀、低利率和美元霸权这个"三选二"难题，重塑对美债甚至对美国的信 心。 中金主要观点如下： 黄金上涨的动力？对美国不信任引发的对美元信用的局部替代 相对价值的"缩水"：黄金名义价值与美债的比值自2022年0.35持续抬升至当前的0.99，这一指标的持续 抬升反映了投资者对美元主权信用资产偏好的边际下降，转而向实物黄金寻求终极的价值避险。 简单而言，从基本面角度看，高利率、高付息、高杠杆也使得美债存在让人诟病与担忧的问题。 黄金规模超过美债意味着什么？并非马上兑现的数字节点，却是心理上的重要分水岭 对于那些已在"去美元化"的国家来说，自不必说仍需要增加黄金储备，但对于那些仍在美元体系中的国 家、尤其是 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 引言：5500美元是黄金能触及的天花板，还是划时代变化刚开始的起点？ 开年短短一个月，黄金的 表现 就创下多项记录： 1）上涨斜率几乎超出了所有人的预期，虽然看多黄金是市场的主流，但短短一个月内涨幅高达25%， 还是80年代以来的首次，即便对于大多数黄金多头而言恐怕也始料未及；2）转眼间短暂超过5500美元/盎司后"满减"，一天之内跌幅超过10%，也是1984 年以来的前所未见。 在这一急涨与暴跌交织的巨震面前，任何点位测算都显得苍白且无力，是因为 ：1）金价显然已超越单纯的基本面主导，所以传统的黄金测算模型如实际 利率已经早早失效；2）影响更大的地缘与货币体系重构的宏大叙事又很难给出具体兑现的时间表，反而给人以短期可以任意遐想的空间；3）短期内黄金 急涨有很大情绪和资金驱动，更使得节奏难以把握。 图表1：2022年后黄金和实际利率脱锚 资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部 图表2：我们构建的美元、实际利率、不确定性和动量四因子模型近期对金价解释力度下降 资料来源：Bloomberg，Wind，中金公司研究部 这 三 点决定了对金价的测算很难兼顾方向与时间，更不用说过程中上下起伏的节奏了 ...

编者注：2月2日，现货白银延续跌势，日内跌幅扩大至10%，报76.89美元/盎司。现货黄金向下跌破4700美元，日内下跌3.33%。 1月的最后一个交易日，金银价格发生史诗级暴跌。 现货黄金盘中最大跌幅突破12%，击穿5000美元/盎司大关；现货白银盘中最大跌幅超35%，为近40年最大单日跌幅。 这场始于美联储主席提名的多米诺骨牌，在24小时内接连推倒对冲基金、高杠杆资金，恐慌情绪迅速蔓延至工业金属、加密货币等领域。与此同时，国内金 饰价格两日内每克最高回调超200元，引发零售端退货争议。 "这不是简单的回调，而是一场由政策预期突变引发的流动性踩踏。"交易人士告诉记者，"前期芝加哥商品交易所（CME）及国内的上海期货交易所已持续 上调黄金、白银交易保证金比例，交易者在黄金、白银上积累了过多杠杆，断崖式暴跌触发了大规模的保证金追缴（margin call），被迫抛售成为压垮骆驼 的最后一根稻草。" 沃什提名引爆金银创纪录重挫 消息面上，美国总统特朗普于当地时间周五（1月30日）通过社交媒体宣布，提名美联储前理事凯文・沃什接替杰罗姆・鲍威尔，出任美联储新一任主席。 美元指数瞬间被点燃，现货黄金价格如自由落体般从5 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent sharp decline in gold and silver prices marks a transition from a liquidity-driven market frenzy to a complex phase of supply and demand dynamics, triggered by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman [1][2][3] - Kevin Warsh's nomination is seen as a political maneuver that aims to restore market confidence, characterized by his hawkish stance against quantitative easing and support for interest rate cuts to lower financing costs for the real economy [1][2] - The market's rapid rise over the past month, detached from fundamentals, created a significant profit-taking scenario, leading to a technical correction that resulted in gold prices dropping over 10% and silver prices falling by more than 30% in a single day [2] Group 2 - The adjustment in gold and silver prices is primarily a cooling of market sentiment and a revaluation rather than a complete reversal of long-term trends, indicating a shift to a new phase dominated by higher uncertainty and normalized volatility [3][4] - The driving logic behind market movements has shifted from "easing and safe-haven" to intense supply and demand battles, with the uncertainty brought by the Federal Reserve's leadership change becoming a core variable influencing price volatility [3] - Regulatory measures, such as increased margin requirements by major exchanges, aim to temper overheated market sentiment and curb excessive speculation, emphasizing the importance of volatility management over trend direction in current market conditions [3]

Core Viewpoint - On January 30, gold prices experienced a significant reversal, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly 40 years after reaching a historical high the previous trading day [1] Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment has become polarized following the sharp decline in gold prices, with some early investors remaining calm due to unrealized gains, while others who did not enter the market feel relieved [2] - Discussions on investment platforms reflect anxiety, with topics such as whether to hold or sell amid the price drop gaining traction [2] - Some investors are taking a contrarian approach by gradually increasing their positions, indicating a complex emotional landscape among market participants [2] Factors Behind Price Decline - The sharp drop in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including profit-taking after a rapid increase of approximately 30% since the beginning of 2026 [3] - Increased margin requirements for gold futures trading have exacerbated the volatility, with exchanges raising margin ratios, leading to a chain reaction of selling [3] - The expectation of changes in monetary policy, particularly with the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, has added pressure on gold prices, as a stronger dollar negatively impacts gold [4] Institutional Perspectives - Various gold-themed ETFs have seen significant declines, with an average drop of over 7% on January 30, and some gold stock ETFs hitting their daily limit down [5] - Despite the recent volatility, there was a notable inflow of funds into related ETFs prior to the drop, indicating lingering optimism in the market [5] - Some institutions maintain a long-term bullish outlook on gold, citing factors such as ongoing de-dollarization, central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, and inflation expectations as supportive for gold prices [6] - UBS has raised its gold price targets for March, June, and September 2026 from $5,000 to $6,200 per ounce, driven by stronger-than-expected demand [6]