Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, hold a wait-and-see attitude towards treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Range trading for coking coal and rebar, sell call options for glass [1][7][8] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Cautiously hold long positions in copper on dips, buy aluminum on dips after pullbacks, hold a wait-and-see attitude or short nickel on rallies, range trade tin, gold, and silver [1][10][12] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and PTA are expected to fluctuate; short the 01 contract of soda ash [1][21][23][34] - **Cotton Spinning Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate strongly; PTA is expected to fluctuate at a low level; apples are expected to fluctuate strongly; dates are expected to fluctuate [1][37][38][39] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short pigs on rallies, short eggs on rallies, corn is expected to fluctuate weakly, bean meal is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and oils are expected to have limited corrections [1][40][42][46] Core Views - The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products, taking into account factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and policy changes [1][5][7] - It suggests specific trading strategies for each product, such as range trading, buying on dips, or selling call options [1][7][8] - The report also highlights key factors to watch for each product, including macro data, policy changes, and supply and demand dynamics [22][24][25] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and be bullish in the long term. Consider buying on dips [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to fluctuate. Hold a wait-and-see attitude and pay attention to important financial policies [1][5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Market sentiment is bullish, and prices are expected to be strong in the short term due to tight supply [6][7] - **Rebar**: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. Consider buying the RB2601 contract near 3000 [7] - **Glass**: Fundamental conditions are deteriorating, and the market is expected to be weak. Consider selling call options on the 01 contract [8][9] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Prices are expected to fluctuate higher in the short term. Consider holding a small long position on dips and avoid chasing highs [10] - **Aluminum**: Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. Consider taking profits on long positions on rallies and pay attention to tariff developments [12] - **Nickel**: Supply is expected to be abundant in the long term. Hold a wait-and-see attitude or short on rallies [17] - **Tin**: Prices are expected to fluctuate. Range trade with reference to the 12 contract's range of 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [18] - **Gold and Silver**: Prices are expected to have support in the medium term but are in a short-term adjustment. Range trade and pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision [19][20] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Expected to fluctuate. The 01 contract is temporarily watched in the range of 4600 - 4800 [21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to fluctuate weakly. The 01 contract is temporarily watched for resistance at 2450 [23][24] - **Styrene**: Expected to fluctuate. Watch the range of 6300 - 6700 [24][25] - **Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate. Watch for support at 15,000 [26][27] - **Urea**: Expected to fluctuate. The 01 contract's range is referenced at 1600 - 1700 [28][29] - **Methanol**: Expected to fluctuate. The 01 contract's operating range is referenced at 2230 - 2330 [30][31] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to fluctuate weakly. The L2601 contract is watched for support at 7000, and the PP2601 contract is watched for support at 6600 [31][32] - **Soda Ash**: Adopt a short strategy for the 01 contract [34][35][36] Cotton Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Expected to fluctuate strongly due to positive factors such as production and trade negotiations [37] - **PTA**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level. Watch the range of 4400 - 4700 [37][38] - **Apples**: Prices are expected to be strong due to factors such as quality and delivery costs [38] - **Dates**: Expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to price changes after the new season's centralized listing [39] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Prices are under pressure in the medium term. Adopt a short strategy for the 01, 03, and 05 contracts and be cautious about bottom-fishing for the 07 and 09 contracts [40][41][42] - **Eggs**: Prices are expected to rebound under pressure. Short on rallies for the 12 and 01 contracts and pay attention to factors such as culling and policies [42] - **Corn**: Expected to fluctuate weakly. Adopt a short strategy for the 11 contract and watch for the 1 - 5 reverse spread [43][44] - **Bean Meal**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level. Consider buying on dips for the M2601 contract and use options to hedge risks [44][45][46] - **Oils**: Expected to have limited corrections. Wait for the correction to end and then go long for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils [46][51]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - International oil prices rebounded last week, with Brent's December contract rising 7.09%. Short - term crude oil is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the rebound height is limited [1] Precious Metals - Gold and silver continued to fluctuate and adjust. The market maintains the expectation of two more interest rate cuts this year. Precious metals are in a high - level shock phase, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Copper - Both domestic and foreign copper prices continued to rise. Copper has the potential to hit a record high, but high prices are affecting domestic consumption. It is advisable to trade on dips and be cautious about chasing highs [3] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum was volatile and slightly stronger on Friday. Although it is breaking through the previous high and showing a strong - side shock, the fundamental driving force is limited, and the upside space should be viewed with caution [4] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 is 20,700 yuan. It continues to follow the aluminum price and is unlikely to have an independent market for now [5] Alumina - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and the industry inventory is rising. It is mainly in a weak operation [6] Zinc - LME zinc rebounded to the $3,000 integer mark. The domestic and foreign fundamentals are different, and the short - term rebound height of Shanghai zinc is determined by zinc ingot exports and downstream consumption [7] Lead - The domestic lead market has tight supply. After the lead price rises, downstream purchasing sentiment drops. Further upward movement requires the joint drive of inventory and funds [8] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is in a low - level shock. The downstream demand recovery is limited during the peak consumption season, and the overall price of the nickel industry chain may be dragged down [9] Tin - The price of tin fluctuated and declined last Friday night. Pay attention to the supply rhythm after the maintenance and shipment of leading smelters, and wait for the entry opportunity [10] Carbonate Lithium - The lithium price rebounded, and the market trading warmed up. Technically, it is strengthening in the short term, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 80,000 yuan [11] Industrial Silicon - In November, the power price in the southwest production area is rising, and production cuts in Sichuan and Yunnan are highly likely. The short - term spot price is under pressure, and the futures market is expected to remain volatile [12] Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is stable. The market is mainly driven by policy expectations and maintains a volatile trend [13] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market was volatile last week. Supply is strong, and demand has a downward pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be mainly volatile [15] Coke - The coke price rose during the day. The overall carbon element supply is abundant, and the steel profit is average. The coke price may be prone to rise and difficult to fall [16] Coking Coal - The coking coal price rose during the day. Affected by factors such as political instability in Mongolia and safety inspections, the price may be prone to rise and difficult to fall [17] Manganese Silicon - The price fluctuated downward during the day. The demand is good, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [18] Silicon Iron - The price fluctuated downward during the day. The overall demand is okay, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [19] Group 2: Building Materials and Chemicals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Steel prices strengthened on Friday night. Demand is picking up, but the overall domestic demand is still weak. The futures market is expected to continue the rebound trend in the short term [14] Asphalt - BU continued to rise. The supply and demand both decreased this week, and the market is in a tight - balance pattern. The rising cost helps to consolidate the upward trend [21] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The external price stabilized and rebounded. The fundamentals have improved marginally, and the strengthening of crude oil has boosted LPG [22] Urea - The demand for urea in agriculture has increased, and the supply has decreased slightly. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly within a range [23] Methanol - The port inventory has increased slightly. In the short term, it may fluctuate within a range, and in the long - term, it may be volatile and slightly stronger [24] Pure Benzene - The price of benzene rebounded last week. Supply and demand both decreased. In the medium - term, high imports are the main pressure [25] PVC and Caustic Soda - The inventory accumulation of PVC has slowed down, and it may operate in the bottom - range. Caustic soda may operate at a low level within a range [26] PX and PTA - PX and PTA follow the oil price trend. The terminal situation is improving, but if the oil price weakens, PTA may face inventory accumulation [27] Ethylene Glycol - Domestic production has decreased, but the output has increased. In the short - term, the negative factors in the fundamentals have eased, and in the medium - term, inventory accumulation is expected [28] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short - fiber may accumulate inventory again. The demand for bottle chips has weakened seasonally, and the long - term pressure is over - capacity [29] Glass - The glass spot price continued to decline. The industry is still accumulating inventory. The decline range is expected to be limited, and attention can be paid to selling out - of - the - money put options [30] 20 - Number Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - The demand is slowly recovering, the supply pressure is large, and the strategy is to rebound from oversold conditions [31] Soda Ash - Soda ash is operating in a low - level range. It is advisable to be cautious when the price is near the cost and prefer to short at high levels after a rebound [32] Group 3: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - The overall soybean supply in the fourth quarter is not a big problem. If Sino - US trade relations deteriorate, the supply in the first quarter of next year may be tight. It is recommended to wait and see and look for long - entry opportunities [33] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - In the short - term, be cautious about the callback of palm oil prices and the adjustment risk of the oil - meal ratio. In the long - term, it is advisable to allocate vegetable oils on dips [34] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The main contract of rapeseed products is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to pay attention to the cross - competitor strategy with rapeseed products as the short side [35] Domestic Soybeans - The price of domestic soybeans fluctuated. The auction results were good. Pay attention to the impact of the spread between domestic and imported soybeans and policy guidance [36] Corn - Corn futures were weakly volatile on Friday night. The supply is loose, and Dalian corn may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [37] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs rebounded over the weekend. Although there is still supply pressure, consumption is expected to improve in the fourth quarter. After the rebound, it is advisable to short on rallies [38] Eggs - Egg futures rebounded. In the short - term, pay attention to risk avoidance, and in the medium - term, there may still be a decline [39] Cotton - US cotton is expected to have weak demand. Domestic cotton futures rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see [40] Sugar - US sugar is oscillating. The international sugar supply is sufficient. The domestic market focuses on the new - season output estimate [41] Apples - Apple futures are strongly operating. The market focuses on the cold - storage inventory. It is recommended to wait and see [42] Wood - Wood futures are oscillating. The supply and demand situation has improved, and it is advisable to maintain a long - biased thinking [43] Pulp - Pulp rebounded last week. The port inventory is relatively high, and the demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see [44] Group 4: Financial Products Stock Index - The stock market rose, and the futures index contracts all closed up. The market style should focus on the technology - growth sector [45] Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The yield curve steepening is expected to end for now [46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, lithium carbonate, alumina, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy. Due to factors such as progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, expected dovish statements from the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and tight supply in the industry, most non - ferrous metals are expected to show a strong or strong - oscillating trend in the short term [2][3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: Supply concerns and optimism about Sino - US economic and trade negotiations pushed up copper prices. On Friday, the LME 3M copper contract rose 1.2% to $10,947/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract reached 87,660 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 575 to 136,350 tons, and domestic warehouse receipts and inventories in some regions also changed. The spot import of domestic copper was at a loss, and the refined - scrap price difference widened [2]. - **Strategy View**: With progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and an expected dovish statement from the Fed's interest - rate meeting, sentiment is expected to remain positive. Given the tight supply of copper raw materials and low inventories, copper prices are expected to continue to be strong. The operating range of the Shanghai copper main contract is expected to be 86,600 - 89,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M copper is 10,850 - 11,100 dollars/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices declined and then rebounded. On Friday, the LME aluminum closed down 0.3% to $2,856/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract reached 21,245 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased, and inventories in some domestic regions and abroad changed. The downstream procurement sentiment weakened [4]. - **Strategy View**: After the production suspension of an overseas aluminum plant and considering the low domestic inventory, improved global trade situation, and supply disruptions, aluminum prices are expected to oscillate upward. The operating range of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is expected to be 21,100 - 21,380 yuan/ton, and that of the LME aluminum is 2,830 - 2,880 dollars/ton [5]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose 0.17% to 17,592 yuan/ton last Friday. LME and domestic inventories, prices, and spreads of lead showed different changes. The domestic social inventory decreased to 2.61 million tons [7]. - **Strategy View**: The visible inventory of lead ore decreased, and the TC of lead concentrate imports declined. The smelting start - up rate and battery start - up rate showed different trends. With the continuous reduction of lead ingot inventory and a positive market atmosphere, the Shanghai lead is expected to be strong in the short term [8]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose 0.06% to 22,362 yuan/ton last Friday. LME and domestic inventories, prices, and spreads of zinc changed. The domestic social inventory increased slightly to 16.21 million tons [10]. - **Strategy View**: The visible inventory of zinc ore increased slightly, and the TC of zinc concentrate decreased. The smelting profit declined, and the inventory accumulation rate of domestic zinc ingots slowed down. With a high structural risk of LME zinc and a positive market atmosphere, the Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [11]. Tin - **Market Information**: On October 24, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed down 0.42% to 282,550 yuan/ton. The supply of tin ore remained tight, and although the start - up rate of smelters increased slightly, it was still at a low level. The demand in emerging fields provided support, and the social inventory decreased [12]. - **Strategy View**: With progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and a tight supply - demand balance of tin, and the recovery of demand in the peak season, tin prices are expected to oscillate upward in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips. The operating range of the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME tin is 35,000 - 36,500 dollars/ton [13]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Last Friday, nickel prices fluctuated narrowly at a low level. The prices of nickel ore and nickel - iron showed different trends, and the price of MHP was high [14]. - **Strategy View**: In the short term, the significant inventory pressure of refined nickel drags down nickel prices. In the long term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle will support nickel prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. If nickel prices fall enough or the risk preference is high, long positions can be gradually established. The operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME nickel 3M contract is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On Friday, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate rose, and the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The price of imported lithium concentrate also rose [18]. - **Strategy View**: The downstream demand is strong, and the fundamental situation has improved. If the resumption of production of large mines in Jiangxi is delayed, the inventory reduction trend may continue until the end of the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the selling pressure from industrial hedging and supply elasticity. The operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate main contract is 77,800 - 82,800 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On October 24, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.95% to 2,821 yuan/ton. The spot price in Shandong was at a discount, and the overseas price and import profit and loss were stable. The futures inventory remained unchanged [21]. - **Strategy View**: The ore price has short - term support but may face pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern of alumina smelting is difficult to change in the short term. Considering the positive market atmosphere and the price approaching the cost line, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,700 - 3,000 yuan/ton [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed up 0.35% to 12,810 yuan/ton. Spot prices in some regions increased, and raw - material prices remained stable. The social inventory increased, and the futures inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy View**: Although the price - support signal from the market is clear, the downstream demand support is weak, and the cost support has declined. The supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, so it is recommended to wait and see [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: On Friday, the price of the cast - aluminum - alloy main contract rose 0.39% to 20,705 yuan/ton. The position decreased, and the trading volume increased. The inventory in some regions decreased slightly [27]. - **Strategy View**: Progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and strong cost support the price, but due to high warehouse receipts, the upward space of the near - term contract price may be limited [28].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, which is favorable for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors, particularly for innovative drugs and devices [1] - By September 2025, further rate cuts are expected, leading to a more accommodative macro environment and an increase in valuation premiums for innovative assets [1] Industry Focus - Investment in the pharmaceutical industry should concentrate on the intrinsic logic of clinical value, which addresses the needs of patients and healthcare providers, as both domestic and international policies are assigning higher premiums to clinical value [1] - The reduction in interest rates will improve the financing environment for pharmaceutical companies, particularly benefiting biotech firms, which will increase R&D investments and positively impact the demand for CXO services [1] Market Performance - The Guotai Innovation Pharmaceutical ETF (159377) tracks the Innovation Pharmaceutical Index (399275), which saw a daily fluctuation of 20%. This index includes listed companies involved in biomedicine, medical devices, and related services, reflecting the overall performance of the pharmaceutical sector on the Growth Enterprise Market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal industry is experiencing opportunities during the interest rate cut cycle, particularly in the gold sector, which is expected to rise due to Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, risk aversion, and central bank purchases [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting rates by 50 basis points within the year, alongside soft U.S. economic data and geopolitical risks, which will further highlight gold's monetary and safe-haven attributes [1] - The gold stock ETF (517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stock Index (931238), which selects listed companies involved in gold mining, smelting, and sales to reflect the overall performance of the gold industry-related securities [1] Group 2 - The index constituents cover the entire gold industry chain, exhibiting high industry concentration and certain volatility, thereby reflecting the market value and performance of gold-related companies [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the international gold price ended a nine - week rising trend and pulled back, and the international silver price also sharply adjusted after hitting a record high. The triggers were the relief of the physical supply shortage in the London market and the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders at the end of the month, which cooled the risk - aversion sentiment. The lower - than - expected US September CPI data on Friday strengthened the expectation of two interest rate cuts at the end of the month, leading to a certain rebound in gold and silver prices [2][5]. - The fifth round of China - US economic and trade consultations achieved positive progress, and the short - squeeze in the London silver market ended, reducing market risk - aversion demand. Gold and silver prices have entered a phase of adjustment, and the mid - term adjustment trend is expected to continue, even if there are rebounds due to data or Fed rate cuts. Attention should be paid to the Fed meeting result on October 30 and the APEC meeting on November 1 [3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 938.10 | - 61.70 | - 6.17 | 185813 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 935.33 | - 38.37 | - 3.94 | 55614 | 256570 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 4126.90 | - 141.00 | - 3.30 | | | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 11332 | - 917 | - 7.49 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 11317 | - 462 | - 3.92 | 955860 | 3645194 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 48.41 | - 2.22 | - 4.38 | | | US dollars/ounce | [4] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The international gold price ended a nine - week rising trend and pulled back, and the international silver price also sharply adjusted after hitting a record high. The triggers were the relief of the physical supply shortage in the London market and the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders at the end of the month, which cooled the risk - aversion sentiment. The lower - than - expected US September CPI data on Friday strengthened the expectation of two interest rate cuts at the end of the month, leading to a certain rebound in gold and silver prices [2][5]. - The fifth round of China - US economic and trade consultations achieved positive progress, and the short - squeeze in the London silver market ended, reducing market risk - aversion demand. Gold and silver prices have entered a phase of adjustment, and the mid - term adjustment trend is expected to continue, even if there are rebounds due to data or Fed rate cuts. Attention should be paid to the Fed meeting result on October 30 and the APEC meeting on November 1 [3][6]. - The US Federal Supreme Court will quickly review the legitimacy of most tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and hold oral arguments on November 5. Nearly 50 well - known economists, including two former Fed chairmen, pressured the US Supreme Court to overturn most of the global tariffs introduced by President Trump [5]. - The US federal government shutdown has entered the fourth week, with about 700,000 federal employees on forced leave. The White House announced that inflation data may not be released next month due to the government shutdown [5]. 3. Important Data Information - The US September CPI increased by 3% year - on - year, falling short of expectations. Core inflation increased by 0.2% month - on - month, the slowest pace in three months, lower than the market expectation of 0.3%. This further strengthened the market's expectation that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates this year [8]. - The US October Markit manufacturing, services, and composite PMIs all rebounded from September and were better than expected. The manufacturing PMI was 52.2, the services PMI was 55.2, and the composite PMI was 54.8 [8]. - The October eurozone composite PMI was 52.2, higher than 51.2 in September and far exceeding analysts' expectations of 51. The growth was mainly due to the strong performance of the German service sector. Germany's October composite PMI reached a new high since May 2023, while France's private - sector activity has contracted for 14 consecutive months [8]. - Due to lower mortgage rates and slower home - price growth, US existing - home sales rose slightly to an annualized 4.06 million units in September, the highest level in seven months [9]. - In September, global physical gold ETFs had the largest single - month inflow in history, pushing the total inflow in the third quarter to a record $26 billion. By the end of the third quarter, the total asset management scale of global gold ETFs increased to $472 billion, and the total holdings increased by 6% month - on - month to 3838 tons, only 2% lower than the historical peak [9]. - From January to June 2025, the global gold trade volume was 3053.8 tons, the global silver trade volume was 17,000 tons, and the global platinum trade volume was 476.8 tons [9]. 4. Relevant Data Charts - ETF gold total holdings on October 24, 2025, were 1046.93 tons, a decrease of 0.28 tons from the previous week, an increase of 50.08 tons from the previous month, and an increase of 157.15 tons from the previous year. Ishares silver holdings were 15419.81 tons, a decrease of 77.59 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 49.31 tons from the previous month, and an increase of 546.74 tons from the previous year [10]. - For gold futures non - commercial positions, on September 23, 2025, non - commercial long positions were 332,808, non - commercial short positions were 66,059, and non - commercial net long positions were 266,749, an increase of 339 from the previous week [10]. - For silver futures non - commercial positions, on September 23, 2025, non - commercial long positions were 72,318, non - commercial short positions were 20,042, and non - commercial net long positions were 52,276, an increase of 738 from the previous week [11].

铜周报 2025 年 10 月 27 日 降息预期抬升，铜价震荡向上 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周铜价震荡向上，主因美国9月CPI环比增速为三个月以 来最低值，市场降息预期再度升温，此外市场积极预期中 美双方能够延续此前友好对话合作共赢的谈判基础，二十 届四中全会宣布目标要建设现代化产业体系和强大的内 循环市场，并公布了五年的发展规划尤其是加快绿色转型 的速度和全面性，铜的绿 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US 9 - month CPI was slightly lower than expected, and the market fully priced in two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. The outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations and the Fed's future interest rate path are key factors affecting the market [20][21]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" has boosted the stock market, especially technology stocks, but concerns about shrinking trading volume and liquidity decline remain. The performance of various commodities is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and geopolitical situations [2][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 9 - month CPI was lower than expected, and the impact of tariffs on inflation was not fully reflected. Core inflation declined due to the easing of service costs. The Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in the October meeting was fully priced in. Sino - US trade negotiations made some progress, which was negative for gold. Gold prices were expected to continue to be weak and may have further downward adjustment space [12]. - Investment advice: Gold prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to observe the support at the $4000 level [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump announced a 10% tariff on Canada, and Sino - US trade negotiations reached a preliminary consensus, reducing the possibility of short - term trade friction escalation. The US dollar index was expected to fluctuate in the short term [14][17]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term [18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US 10 - month Markit service and manufacturing PMI preliminary values were better than expected, and the 9 - month core CPI growth was lower than expected. The market fully priced in two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. Sino - US trade negotiations did not deteriorate further. The market risk appetite increased [19][20][21]. - Investment advice: Maintain a bullish view and buy on dips [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The "15th Five - Year Plan" boosted the stock market, and technology stocks rose strongly, but trading volume was shrinking. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of this change [25]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate various stock indexes evenly [26]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The press conference on the "15th Five - Year Plan" boosted market risk appetite, and the bond market declined. In the short term, the bond market was expected to fluctuate weakly, but there were still upward opportunities later [28]. - Investment advice: The market may adjust recently. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of Indonesian low - calorie steam coal was stable, and the domestic market sentiment cooled. Coastal power plant restocking slowed down, but the early arrival of winter demand and stable supply provided strong support for coal prices [31]. - Investment advice: Coal prices are expected to have strong support at the bottom [31]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - LKAB's iron ore production in Q3 2025 increased significantly year - on - year. The downstream demand weakened slightly, and the steel mill profit narrowed. Iron ore inventory was expected to gradually accumulate in the fourth quarter, and its fundamentals were structurally weak [32]. - Investment advice: The fundamentals of iron ore are structurally weak [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In the 43rd week, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was higher than expected, and it was expected to decline slightly in the 44th week. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased significantly in October, and there were news about Indonesian palm plantations. The Brazilian soybean planting progress was good, and the production of US renewable fuels increased [33][34]. - Investment advice: For palm oil, consider going long on dips; for soybean oil, pay attention to the latest progress of Sino - US relations [34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - China's sugar production in September 2025 increased year - on - year. India advanced the sugar - cane crushing start date. Datagro expected an increase in Brazilian sugar production and a global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season. The market was bearish, but there were still factors that could affect Brazilian sugar production, and the production in the Northern Hemisphere needed to be verified [35][37][38]. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weakly volatile. Do not chase short positions blindly and pay attention to the upcoming National Sugar Conference [39]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Brazil's cotton exports accelerated in October. The international spot market was sluggish, and the increase in yarn prices was blocked. Zhengzhou cotton rose due to factors such as the increase in Xinjiang seed - cotton purchase prices, but its upward space was limited [40][42][43]. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou cotton's upward space is limited. Pay attention to the new cotton listing, downstream orders, and Sino - US relations [44]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean planting rate in Mato Grosso, Brazil, reached 60%. The domestic oil mill's soybean crushing volume was at a high level. The US soybean drought area remained unchanged, and the USDA report was suspended. The market was concerned about Sino - US trade talks and South American weather [45][46]. - Investment advice: Soybean meal prices are expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to Sino - US relations and South American weather [47]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased. The Southeast Asian Iron and Steel Association proposed to impose carbon taxes on steel imports. The inventory of key steel enterprises increased. The overall demand was weak, and steel prices were expected to fluctuate [48][50][51]. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading mindset for steel prices [51]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Jujube) - The jujube price in the Hebei market was stable. The futures price of the main contract declined. The Xinjiang jujube was in the normal drying stage, and the inventory was at a high level. The market was bearish [52][53]. - Investment advice: The jujube market is bearish. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the price negotiation and purchase progress in the production area [53]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The starch inventory decreased seasonally. The raw material supply in North China decreased, and the opening rate decreased. The starch enterprise remained slightly profitable. The futures price difference between corn and starch was repaired [54]. - Investment advice: The price difference of the 01 contract may continue to be repaired [55]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased seasonally, while the inventory days of feed enterprises decreased. The spot price was expected to continue to oscillate and find the bottom, and the 01 contract was expected to fluctuate horizontally [56]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. Short - selling has a poor risk - return ratio, and going long may need to wait for an opportunity [57]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The Huatong electrolytic aluminum project in Angola is expected to be put into operation in December 2025. The domestic alumina price was under pressure due to the opening of the import window and oversupply [58][59]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [60]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The copper production of some mines decreased in Q3 2025. The QB copper mine's short - term production capacity was affected by tailings facilities, which is expected to improve in 2027. The market's risk appetite increased due to Sino - US trade negotiations, which supported copper prices. The short - term fundamentals were weak, but the medium - term outlook was good [61][62]. - Investment advice: For unilateral trading, buy on dips; for arbitrage, wait and see [63]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Pilbara's lithium - spodumene production in Q3 2025 increased, and the sales price rose. The inventory of lithium carbonate decreased, and the demand in the energy - storage field was strong. In the short term, the price was supported, but further upward movement may depend on supply - side disturbances [64][65]. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading strategy in the short term; consider short - selling opportunities after the demand peaks in the medium term. For arbitrage, take profit on the previous reverse - spread and pay attention to the positive - spread opportunities of the LC2601 contract against more distant contracts [65]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The domestic new - installed photovoltaic capacity in September 2025 decreased year - on - year. The polysilicon price was stable, but the terminal demand weakened in late October. The cost of battery factories increased, and the silicon - wafer price was under pressure. However, due to policies and inventory conditions, the spot price was expected to remain stable [66][67]. - Investment advice: When the futures price is at a significant premium to the spot price, the cost - effectiveness of policy - based trading decreases. When the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, consider going long [68]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The "15th Five - Year Plan" aims to break market barriers. The operating rate of industrial silicon in some regions changed, and the inventory decreased slightly. The demand from downstream industries was for necessary purchases. The price was expected to be difficult to reduce inventory in November and may reduce inventory in December [69][70]. - Investment advice: Buying on dips for industrial silicon may be more cost - effective [70]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Western Mining's lead and zinc production and sales increased significantly in the first three quarters of 2025. The primary lead production was restricted by raw materials, and the secondary lead production might increase. The social inventory of lead decreased, and the price was expected to be strong in the short term [71][72]. - Investment advice: Be cautious when going long; consider positive - spread opportunities for arbitrage; be cautious in international trading [72]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The 0 - 3 cash spread of LME zinc increased, and the LME inventory rebounded. The domestic TC quotation decreased, and the refinery profit might be under pressure. The demand was mainly oscillating, and the new special - bond issuance plan in November increased [74][75]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading; pay attention to medium - term positive - spread opportunities for arbitrage; wait and see for international trading [76]. 3.2.18 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME received a listing application for the "PTENICO" nickel brand. The global nickel inventory accumulation was priced into the current low valuation. The price was in a narrow - range oscillation, waiting for a breakthrough. The Philippine nickel - mine supply was affected by the rainy season, but the domestic port inventory was sufficient [77]. - Investment advice: Allocation portfolios can consider buying on dips; speculative portfolios can consider selling near - the - money puts and buying deep - out - of - the - money calls [78]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price decreased slightly, and the investment fund's net long position reached a new high. The EU failed to reach an agreement on the 90% emission - reduction target, and the carbon price was expected to oscillate in the short term [79]. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price will oscillate in the short term [80]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs increased. The sanctions on Russia by the US and the EU led to a significant increase in oil prices. The reduction of Russian oil imports by Indian refineries needs further attention [81]. - Investment advice: The risk of a decline in Russian oil supply has increased, and oil prices will be boosted by the rising risk premium in the short term [82]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp spot price was stable, with individual slight adjustments. The futures price was relatively strong, but considering the poor supply - demand situation, the upward space was limited [83][84]. - Investment advice: The upward space of pulp futures is limited [84].

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 迎接"超级央行周" 证券研究报告 海外跟踪周报 20251026 海外市场复盘（10.20-10.24） 海外权益，欧美股市普遍上涨。周一，随着贸易形势缓和，美股上涨；周 三，由于贸易紧张局势再度升温，美股三大指数收跌，大型科技股多数收 跌；周四周五，受科技股走强带动，以及 9 月 CPI 通胀数据低于预期令市 场对降息路径的信心增强，提振美股三大指数上涨、齐创新高。 外汇方面，本周美元小幅收涨。周一周二，市场对贸易协议乐观的情绪提 振美元上涨；周三回调，周四五继续上行。 利率方面，10Y 美债收益率本周收平。本周美债收益率窄幅波动。周五， 美国 CPI 低于预期，美债收益率一度大幅下行，此后受超预期的 Markit PMI 数据推动，收益率回升。 商品方面，黄金大跌、原油大涨。本周一，黄金延续上周的强势涨势，而 周二，黄金跌超过 5%，投资者因担心近期历史性的上涨令其估值过高而锁 定利润。周四黄金小幅回升，但周五再次下跌。本周原油大涨，主因美国 宣布制裁俄罗斯两大石油企业、以及特朗普重申印度将停止购买俄罗斯石 油。 海外央行动态 本周是 FOMC 会议之前的"噤声期"，美联储官员 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the metals and new materials industry, particularly highlighting quality targets in gold and copper [3][4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the rising expectations for interest rate cuts, which are anticipated to elevate valuation levels across the sector. It recommends focusing on stable supply-demand dynamics in the new energy manufacturing sector [3][4]. - The report notes significant price movements in various metals, with copper prices expected to rise due to supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors like AI data centers and electric grid investments [4][9]. Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 2.88%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 4.73%. The non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.13%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 2.11 percentage points [5][7]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has risen by 71.51%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 53.06 percentage points [5][8]. Price Changes - Industrial metals saw varied price changes, with copper up by 2.20% and aluminum up by 7.61%. Precious metals, however, experienced a decline, with gold prices down by 3.30% [4][9]. - Lithium prices have shown significant increases, with battery-grade lithium carbonate up by 5.37% and lithium hexafluorophosphate up by 23.33% [4][9]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report highlights that copper supply is expected to face disruptions due to incidents affecting major mines, which could lead to a 2.2% reduction in global copper supply in the near term [4][9]. - The demand for copper remains robust, with operating rates for electrolytic copper rods and wire and cable production at 61.6% and 62.3%, respectively [4][24]. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential, such as Zijin Mining, China Aluminum, and Shandong Gold, among others [4][17]. - For aluminum, companies like China Hongqiao and Tianshan Aluminum are highlighted due to their integrated operations and cost improvements [4][17]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides valuation metrics for key companies in the sector, indicating a range of price-to-earnings (PE) ratios and price-to-book (PB) ratios, suggesting potential investment opportunities based on current valuations [17][18].