1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of sufficient supply and temporarily stable demand, with seasonal inventory accumulation in social inventories. The option market sentiment is bullish with a slight decline in implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows double - lines above the 0 axis and the red bar expanding. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips with light positions, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 103,060 yuan/ton, up 460 yuan; LME 3 - month copper is 13,169 dollars/ton, up 162.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 260 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 227,447 lots, down 2,310 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 66,045 lots, up 3,756 lots. LME copper inventory is 172,350 tons, up 1,825 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 225,937 tons, up 12,422 tons. The warrant of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 148,038 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 101,660 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 101,580 yuan/ton, down 820 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 23 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 19.5 dollars/ton, down 2.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 1,400 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 93.8 dollars/ton, down 22.73 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons, up 17.8 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 49.79 dollars/kiloton, down 3.26 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 91,870 yuan/metal ton, down 30 yuan; in Yunnan is 92,570 yuan/metal ton, down 30 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south is 2,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north is 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper is 132.6 million tons, up 9 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 69,040 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 83,100 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.91 million tons, up 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 5,603.9 billion yuan, up 779.56 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 82,788.14 billion yuan, up 4,197.24 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345,500 pieces, up 415,345,500 pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 25.86%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.97%, down 0.41%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 25.33%, down 0.0169%. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 1.62, down 0.0942 [2] Industry News - The Conference Board data shows that the US consumer confidence index in January dropped 9.7 points to 84.5, the lowest since 2014. US Census Bureau data indicates that the US population growth slowed in 2025, increasing by only 1.8 million (0.5%) to nearly 342 million. The "Fed whisperer" says the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts with an unclear path for resuming. China's National Bureau of Statistics data shows that the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in 2025 was 7.4 trillion yuan, up 0.6% year - on - year. In December, the profit of these enterprises turned from a 13.1% decline in November to a 5.3% increase. The central bank data shows that at the end of Q4 2025, the RMB real estate loan balance was 51.95 trillion yuan, a decrease of 963.6 billion yuan for the year. The real estate development loan balance was 13.16 trillion yuan, a decrease of 357.5 billion yuan for the year. The individual housing loan balance was 37.01 trillion yuan, a decrease of 676.8 billion yuan for the year [2]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a strong rally on January 28, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 2%, reaching a nearly four-and-a-half-year high at 27,826.91 points, an increase of 699.96 points or 2.58% [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index closed at 5,900.16 points, up 145.44 points, reflecting a gain of 2.53% [2] Trading Volume and Capital Flows - The total trading volume for the day was 365.1 billion HKD, an increase of over 100 billion HKD compared to the previous day [4] - Despite the market's rise, southbound capital recorded a net outflow of over 3.4 billion HKD, marking four consecutive days of net selling in Hong Kong stocks [4][6] Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that the continuous net selling by southbound funds, alongside the rising volume in Hong Kong stocks, may indicate foreign institutional investors are taking long positions in the market [6] - Goldman Sachs' chief China equity strategist noted that earnings growth is the primary driver for the rise in Chinese stocks this year, with an expected inflow of 3.6 trillion CNY into the Chinese stock market, partly through the "Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect" [6] Company Highlights - CloudWalk Technology (HK09678) saw a significant intraday surge of 99%, closing up over 73%, although it remains far from its historical high of 879 HKD set last year [6] - CloudWalk announced that it expects revenue from its large model-related business to reach 600 to 620 million CNY by 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 1,057% to 1,095% [7] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a notable increase, with China Aluminum (HK02600) rising over 12% [8] - Citigroup indicated that gold prices may rise to 6,000 USD in a bull market scenario, while copper and aluminum are seen as key components in AI and energy transitions, with bullish targets of 15,000 USD/ton for copper and approaching 4,000 USD/ton for aluminum [9] Market Outlook - Dongwu Securities highlighted that the Hong Kong market is in a long-term upward trend but faces short-term challenges, particularly regarding overseas factors and the potential impact of U.S. tech earnings on Hong Kong stocks [10] - The report suggests maintaining a "barbell strategy" for overall portfolio allocation, focusing on value dividends as a base while dynamically monitoring sectors like AI technology and non-ferrous metals [10]

Group 1 - Kevin Gordon from Charles Schwab Research Center indicates that if fiscal support expands, the labor market remains stable, and consumer spending is maintained, there will be some upward inflation risks in the U.S. by 2026, potentially limiting the Federal Reserve to two to three rate cuts [1] - Gordon notes that the global economy is in a state of continuous equilibrium, leading to rapid shifts in capital among different investment styles and high dispersion within sectors [1] - Artificial Intelligence (AI) continues to dominate capital allocation and corporate strategies, but its investment impact is maturing, and future stock price increases will depend on substantial profit growth rather than speculation, making robust earnings critical for price support, especially as some sectors have outperformed others [1] Group 2 - According to Charles Schwab's Hong Kong financial advisor, even if the Federal Reserve continues to lower short-term interest rates, fixed-income asset yields, while slightly lower than last year, remain attractive, with an expected annual return of 4.8% for U.S. aggregate bonds over the next decade, slightly down from last year's forecast of 4.9% [1]

Group 1 - The market has shown significant upward movement after a period of volatility, indicating potential investment opportunities [1] - There is a growing trend of individuals who typically do not trade stocks beginning to invest, raising concerns about market sentiment and potential overvaluation [2] - Historical comparisons are made to similar market conditions in 2005 and 2015, suggesting a cyclical nature to current market behaviors [2] Group 2 - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have reached all-time highs, with gold surpassing $5,100 per ounce and silver exceeding $110 per ounce, while the US dollar index has fallen to a four-year low [2] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the new Federal Reserve officials is influencing market dynamics [2] - The CRO sector has experienced a significant decline, indicating missed opportunities for investment [3] Group 3 - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is facing challenges, with a leading company attempting to stabilize its stock price by announcing a buyback of $300 million to $500 million, but the market response has been negative [5] - Poor performance and lack of future prospects in the sector are causing investor hesitation [5]

Group 1 - The core expectation is that the Federal Reserve may only lower interest rates twice in the next two years, despite President Trump's upcoming appointment of a new Fed chair [1][6] - The average expectation among respondents is for two rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, bringing the target range for the federal funds rate down to 3%–3.25% [1][6] - Trump's pressure on the Fed to lower rates significantly is noted, with his desire for rates to be among the lowest globally, aiming for a rate of 1% in a context of approximately 2% inflation [1][6] Group 2 - The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index unexpectedly dropped to its lowest level since May 2014, impacting market confidence in the labor market and growth prospects [2][7] - The index fell from a revised 94.2 to 84.5, marking a significant decline and below all economists' forecasts [2][7] - The drop in consumer confidence is seen as a key driver in reversing recent trends in the bond market, with expectations for two rate cuts by the Fed being reinforced [2][7] Group 3 - Gold prices surged to a new historical high, trading around 5260, supported by a weak dollar and heightened risk aversion due to trade tensions [3][8] - The dollar index is nearing a four-year low, influenced by Trump's comments on the dollar and concerns over a potential government shutdown [3][8] Group 4 - The USD/JPY pair fell significantly, reaching a 13-week low around 152.70, driven by trade tensions and concerns over the Fed's independence [4][9] - The USD/CAD pair also declined, hitting a six-month low around 1.3590, influenced by multiple negative factors including rising oil prices [5][10]

| 名称 = | 债券收益率 | 前值 | 加 | | 低 涨跌 : | 涨跌幅 = | 时间 = | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | El 美国1个月期国债 | 2.5342 | 2.5220 | 2.5720 | 2.5320 | +0.0120 | +0.48% | 15:30:38 0 | | ■ 美国3个月期国债 | 3.3743 | 3.3480 | 3.3743 | 3.3743 | +0.0260 | +0.79% | 07:30:30 U | | 些 美国6个月期国债 | 3.9495 | 3.9020 | | 3.9495 3.9495 +0.0480 | | +1.22% | 07:30:30 U | | ■ 美国1年期国债 | | | 4.0542 4.0380 4.0540 4.0490 | | +0.0160 | +0.40% | 15:27:41 0 | | = 美国2年期国债 | 3.9418 | 3.9640 | 3.9700 | 3.9120 | -0.0220 | -0.56% | 15:59:47 ...

当日，有记者问及是否认为美元贬值过多时，特朗普明确回应："不，我认为这很好，美元的价值……美元 的表现很好。"他同时表示，并不希望美元进一步贬值，"我希望它……只是寻求自己的水平"，甚至暗示自 身具备影响美元走势的能力，称"我可以让它像悠悠球一样涨跌"。值得注意的是，特朗普的言论发布后，美 元指数先出现短暂小幅拉升，随后快速转跌，日内跌幅超50点，纽约尾盘报96.219，延续了2025年以来的疲 软态势——去年美元指数累计下跌9.5%，创下2017年以来最差年度表现。 分析指出，美元近期的持续走弱并非单一因素导致，而是多重压力叠加的结果。首要驱动因素是市场对美 联储继续降息的预期，尽管最新调查显示美联储未来两年可能仅降息两次，今年利率目标区间将下调至 3%-3.25%并维持稳定，但特朗普自开启第二任期以来，持续施压现任美联储主席鲍威尔要求大幅降息，甚 至希望将利率降至1%以实现负实际利率，这种对美联储政策的干预意图，严重威胁了美联储的独立性，削 弱了投资者对美国货币政策稳定性的信心。 与此同时，关税政策的不确定性与美国国内政策的摇摆，进一步加剧了市场焦虑。特朗普近期威胁将对韩 国汽车、木材和药品等进口商品加征 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 28 日 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 | 钯：缓步扬头 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 期货研究 铂：震荡向上 资料来源：同花顺，Wind，彭博，国泰君安期货 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】（资料来源：金十数据） 【趋势强度】 铂趋势强度：0；钯趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示最看空，2 表示最看多。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 1、特朗普：不担心美元贬值，可以让其像悠悠球一样涨跌。 2、美联储传声筒：美联储预计将暂停降息，恢复降息的路径尚不明确。 3、特朗普：美国已向伊朗方向派遣了一支庞大的海军舰队，但希望最终无需动用武力。 4、美国中情局正在秘密开展工作，计划在委内瑞拉境内建立常设美国据点。 5、欧盟卫星通信计划已启动，该计划汇集 27 个成员国政府 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant surge in gold prices, with spot gold surpassing $5200 per ounce for the first time, driven by central banks' strategic asset allocation and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - Central banks globally are entering a new gold purchasing spree, with China's gold reserves reaching 74.15 million ounces as of December 2025, marking the 14th consecutive month of increases [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end gold price target from $4900 to $5400 per ounce, citing growing demand from private investors and central banks, with expectations of monthly purchases of 60 tons of gold by central banks [2][4] Group 2 - The articles indicate that geopolitical risks, such as tensions surrounding Greenland and the situation in Iran, are contributing to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][4] - The long-term outlook for gold prices is generally positive, with predictions of price increases ranging from 10% to 35% in 2026, and some forecasts suggesting a target of $6600 per ounce [4] - Analysts suggest that while there may be short-term volatility due to speculative profit-taking, the fundamental reasons for gold's price increase remain strong, including rising U.S. fiscal risks and continued central bank purchases [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant rise in gold prices, with spot gold surpassing $5,200 per ounce and reaching $5,220, marking an increase of over $880 this month, which is more than 20% [1]. Gold Price Trends - As of January 28, spot gold reached $5,221.810, with a daily increase of $40.062 or 0.77% from the previous close of $5,181.748 [2]. - The highest price recorded was $5,224.020, while the lowest was $5,156.570 [2]. Domestic Market Impact - The surge in international gold prices has led to domestic gold jewelry prices rising, with major brands quoting prices above ¥1,600 per gram. For instance, Chow Sang Sang reported ¥1,614 per gram, an increase of ¥37 from ¥1,577 on January 27 [2][3]. - Other brands like Lao Feng Xiang and Lao Miao quoted prices of ¥1,620 and ¥1,612 per gram, respectively [2]. Factors Driving Gold Prices - Analysts attribute the current surge in gold prices to strategic asset allocation by central banks, particularly as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle, reducing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [3]. - Geopolitical risks, including tensions surrounding Greenland and the situation in Iran, are also contributing to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end gold price target from $4,900 to $5,400 per ounce, citing growing demand from private investors and central banks [4]. - Predictions for gold prices suggest a potential increase of 10% to 35% by 2026, with some forecasts reaching as high as $6,600 per ounce [4].