新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-16 加工费谈判仍在拉锯中 铜价暂陷震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-12-15，沪铜主力合约开于 93500元/吨，收于 92400元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-1.79%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 93,500元/吨，收于 92,250 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下降0.01%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货报价贴水30至升水150元/吨，均价升水60元/吨，较前一日上涨80元。现货价 格区间为92070-92460元/吨。今日为当月合约2512的最后交易日，报价继续沿用当月合约标准。盘面主力合约基本 运行于92090-92330元/吨，次月2601合约区间为92200-92510元/吨，跨月价差在C200至C100之间。由于最后交易日 与年度长单基本结束重叠，市场交易情绪整体平淡，贸易活跃度下降。尽管铜价日内下跌近千元，但绝对价格仍 高于92000元/吨，下游采购意愿较弱。持货商早间对次月报价平水铜贴水100元/吨、好铜贴水50元/吨左右，午后进 一步走扩至贴水130元和80元。今日，上海地区库存仅小幅累积，反映国产与进口补 ...

与此同时，美联储官员近期的表态也受到关注。美联储理事米兰在12月15日表示，他认为当前货币政策立场过于紧缩，应加快降息步伐。同日，纽约联储主 席威廉姆斯称，随着就业市场降温，通胀有望趋于缓和，货币政策已向中性方向推进。波士顿联储主席柯林斯则通过社交媒体表示，支持上周降息25个基点 的决定，但这是一个"艰难的决定"。 12月16日，亚太地区主要股指普遍走低。日经225指数盘中跌幅一度超过1%，韩国综合指数亦出现明显下跌。澳洲标普200指数及富时新加坡海峡指数同步 下挫。 市场关注焦点集中在主要央行的货币政策动向。日本央行周一发布的报告显示，尽管美国加征关税，但企业薪资增长势头依然强劲。日本央行行长植田和男 此前表示，将积极收集薪资数据，为本周的议息会议决策提供依据。市场普遍预计，日本央行可能在此次会议上决定加息。 （市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。） 来源：市场资讯 ...

英镑兑美元当前坚守200日均线1.3350关键支撑位，长期多头基础仍在。日线级别显示，RSI指标处于中 性区间，MACD红柱略减，反映短线缺乏明确方向，震荡整理特征明显。 全球风险情绪略有回落，为美元提供部分避险支撑，但美元多头整体谨慎，缺乏激进买盘。11月以来英 镑兑美元累计反弹近3%，从1.300附近攀升至当前高位，部分获利盘有了结需求，叠加关键事件前的观 望情绪，限制了汇价短期波动空间。 英国央行方面，本周四将召开12月议息会议，市场普遍预期将维持5.25%的基准利率不变。当前市场定 价显示，英国央行12月降息概率仅为10%，2026年底前预期降息61个基点，政策路径相对稳健，为英镑 提供一定支撑。 美联储方面，12月完成年内第三次降息，联邦基金利率区间下调至3.5%-3.75%，但会议出现3票反对 票，政策分歧创下2019年以来新高。鲍威尔表态偏谨慎，未释放2026年明确降息指引，仅强调政策"高 度依赖经济数据"，市场对其明年降息预期有所降温，间接影响英镑兑美元走势。 英国方面，本周将迎来密集数据发布，今日公布月度就业数据，周三披露CPI数据，周四同步迎来央行 政策会议。这些数据将直接反映英国经济复苏 ...

Market Overview - US stock market continued its downward trend with technology stocks underperforming, leading to declines in all three major indices [2] - The US dollar remains weak, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4.17%, while gold prices show strong performance and oil prices are under pressure [2] - Hong Kong pre-market securities generally declined, indicating a likely lower opening for the market [2] - The mainland Chinese stock market also saw declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.5% and trading volume decreasing [2] - The overall market sentiment in Hong Kong is cautious, with blue-chip stocks generally declining and expectations for the index to test support at 25,200 points, while resistance is seen at 26,000 points [2] Industry Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for high-quality development and a new development pattern for the upcoming year, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and enhancing policy effectiveness [3] - Key priorities include expanding domestic demand, optimizing supply, and ensuring stability in employment, enterprises, and market expectations [3] - The conference highlighted the importance of maintaining a proactive fiscal policy with a fiscal deficit rate around 4% and a focus on managing local fiscal difficulties [3] - Monetary policy will remain moderately accommodative, with an emphasis on supporting economic stability, reasonable price recovery, and enhancing liquidity [3] - The market anticipates that the economic growth target will remain around 5% for the next year, with no strong measures expected to stimulate the macro economy [3]

行情回顾： 国际黄金周一（12月15日）高位回落维持震荡走势，开盘价4300.23美元/盎司，最高价4350.23美元/盎司，最低 价4292.01美元/盎司，收盘价4318.19美元/盎司。 米兰表示，他预计随着租金涨幅从新冠疫情期间的峰值回落至正常水平，住房通胀将会缓解。他认为，由于劳 动力市场降温，服务业通胀不太可能面临上行压力。一些服务业通胀的驱动因素，例如投资组合管理费，反映 的是统计上的异常现象，而不是消费者实际感受到的价格变化。谈到劳动力市场，米兰表示："经验表明，劳 动力市场恶化可能发生得很快，而且是非线性的，并且难以逆转。""部分原因是货币政策存在几个季度的滞后 效应，因此，正如我所主张的，更快地放松政策将适当地使我们更接近中性立场。" 美联储威廉姆斯表示，美联储上周降息的决定是正确的，但下一步行动尚难判断。威廉姆斯在新泽西州泽西市 的一场活动上对记者表示："我非常支持我们做出的决定"，即把美联储基准利率下调25个基点。展望1月27日 至28日的政策会议，他表示："我们将等待并收集所有相关数据"，目前"还为时过早，无法判断下一次货币政 策决定该怎么做"。通过缩表，美联储已基本上将银行准备金水 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Stocks are expected to have a medium - to long - term upward trend, with a short - term outlook of volatile operation; bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is recommended to be shorted on rallies [1][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper should be reduced on rallies and replenished when the price stabilizes at a low level; aluminum requires more observation; nickel is recommended to be observed or shorted on rallies; tin is for range trading; silver should be held in long positions with caution in opening new positions; gold is for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways movement [1][10][12][17]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, and soda ash are recommended for temporary observation; styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; polyolefins are expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement [1][21][22][23]. - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be in a relatively strong sideways movement; PTA is expected to move upward in a volatile manner; apples and jujubes are expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement [1][30][32][33]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs are recommended to be shorted on rallies for near - term contracts and bullish cautiously for far - term contracts; eggs have limited upside potential; corn should be chased with caution in the short term and hedged on rallies; soybean meal is for range trading, with a stronger view for near - term contracts and a weaker view for far - term contracts; oils are recommended to be shorted with caution [1][34][37][40]. Core Views - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and international situations. Different varieties show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own fundamentals and external factors. For example, the macro - financial market is affected by central bank policies and economic data; the black building materials market is affected by supply - demand relationships in the industry; the non - ferrous metals market is affected by global economic trends and supply - demand in the mining industry; the energy and chemicals market is affected by raw material prices and downstream demand; the cotton and textile industry chain is affected by global supply - demand and domestic consumption; the agriculture and animal husbandry market is affected by breeding cycles and supply - demand in the food market [5][7][10]. Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stocks**: Influenced by factors such as Fed policies, domestic economic data, and technological developments, the market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a medium - to long - term upward trend. It is recommended to buy on dips [5]. - **Bonds**: Affected by central bank policies and regulatory measures, the market is expected to trade sideways. The key lies in the actual buying power of year - end allocation funds and the guidance from important meetings [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: In a game between bearish realities and marginal support, it is recommended for short - term trading [7]. - **Rebar**: With low valuation and weak drivers, it is expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement and suitable for range trading [7]. - **Glass**: With high inventory, weak demand, and increasing supply expectations, it is expected to be in a low - level weak movement before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to be shorted on rallies [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Supported by macro - easing expectations and long - term ore shortages, but with short - term over - rise risks, it is recommended to reduce positions on rallies and replenish when the price stabilizes at a low level [10]. - **Aluminum**: With factors such as changes in ore prices, production capacity adjustments, and weakening demand, it is recommended to reduce long positions or observe [12]. - **Nickel**: With an expected increase in supply and an oversupply pattern, it is recommended to observe or short on rallies [15]. - **Tin**: With tight supply and weak downstream consumption, it is recommended for range trading, and attention should be paid to supply and demand changes [17]. - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by Fed policies and economic data, they are expected to be in a relatively strong sideways movement. Silver is recommended to hold long positions with caution in opening new positions, and gold is for range trading [17][19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: With supply disruptions and strong demand, it is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways movement, and attention should be paid to mine developments [19]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high supply, weak demand, and low valuation, it is expected to be in a low - level sideways movement and suitable for range trading [21]. - **Caustic Soda**: With high inventory and uncertain supply - demand changes, it is recommended for temporary observation [22]. - **Styrene**: Affected by factors such as oil blending and supply - demand relationships, it is expected to be in a sideways movement and suitable for range trading [23]. - **Rubber**: Affected by supply shortages and inventory changes, it is expected to be in a sideways movement and suitable for range trading [23]. - **Urea**: With sufficient supply and stable demand and supply, it is expected to be in a sideways movement and suitable for range trading [25]. - **Methanol**: With supply recovery, high - level but fluctuating downstream demand, and inventory reduction, it is expected to be in a sideways movement and suitable for range trading [26]. - **Polyolefins**: With strong supply and weak demand, it is expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement. PE is expected to be in a range - bound movement, and PP is expected to be in a relatively weak movement [28]. - **Soda Ash**: With supply overcapacity and cost support, it is recommended for temporary observation [30]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Affected by global supply - demand and domestic sales, they are expected to be in a relatively strong sideways movement [30]. - **PTA**: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships, it is expected to move upward in a volatile manner [32]. - **Apples and Jujubes**: With weak demand and supply - demand relationships, they are expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement [32][33]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: With short - term supply pressure and long - term capacity adjustment, near - term contracts are recommended to be shorted on rallies, and far - term contracts are bullish cautiously [34]. - **Eggs**: With sufficient supply and short - term balanced supply - demand, the upside is limited. Attention should be paid to long - term capacity changes [37]. - **Corn**: With short - term selling pressure and long - term demand recovery, it should be chased with caution in the short term and hedged on rallies [40]. - **Soybean Meal**: With different trends for near - and far - term contracts, it is for range trading, and spot enterprises can fix prices for the December - January basis [40]. - **Oils**: Affected by reports and supply - demand relationships, they are expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement. It is recommended to be shorted with caution for soybean and palm oils [47].

纽约联储主席约翰・威廉姆斯于本周一在新泽西州泽西市的公开活动表示在12月完成今年第三次降息后，面对 就业市场隐现的下行风险与通胀压力的边际缓解，当前货币政策已为2026年的经济运行筑牢基础。 威廉姆斯强调，联邦公开市场委员会已完成从"适度限制性"到"中性"的政策转向，这一调整的核心目标是精准 平衡通胀过高与就业疲软两大风险。 得益于财政政策的持续发力、金融市场环境的持续改善，以及人工智能领域投资的加速落地，2026年美国经济 增速有望从2025年的1.5%提升至2.25%。通胀方面，预计将在明年回落至2.5%以下，并在2027年逐步趋近美联 储设定的2%长期目标。 在演讲后的问答环节中，他进一步补充，当前的利率调整并非基于单一数据的短期反应，而是对央行双重使命 的系统性回应，旨在通过前瞻性布局，避免通胀与就业风险向极端化发展。 波士顿联储主席柯林斯，则在领英平台发布的帖子中坦言，12月支持降息是一个"艰难的选择"。"11月时，我的 分析仍倾向于维持政策稳定，但随着更多数据的披露，风险平衡出现了微妙变化。"。 美联储理事米兰则继续坚持其激进立场，在接受CNBC采访时重申，当前的政策立场仍存在过度限制性，未能 充 ...

新 】 社 主管主办 上海診券報 ()中国证券网 【个股资讯】 特斯拉市值一夜增加超 身家超6000亿美元 iRobot跌超72%,公司, Pure Data Centres计划 建设数据中心围区 s = (国际宏观) 纳斯达克计划推出股票 【市场回顾】 北京时间12月16日，日韩股市开盘涨跌互现。日经225指数小幅低开0.23%，韩国综合指数小幅高开0.07%。开盘不久后，日韩股市盘中均急速下挫。 美股三大指数集体收跌。截至收盘，道指跌0.09%，报48416.56点；纳指跌0.59%，报23057.41点；标普500指数跌0.16%，报6816.51点。 热门中概股普跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌2.17%。百度跌近5%，金山云跌超4%，知乎、阿里巴巴、小鹏汽车跌超3%，理想汽车、好未来跌超2%，名创 优品涨超2%。 【个股资讯】 特斯拉涨超3%，创近一年新高，市值一夜增加超530亿美元。根据福布斯数据，特斯拉CEO马斯克的身家已经达到了6770亿美元，成为历史上首位身家达到 或超过6000亿美元的人。 美联储米兰： 潜在通胀 货币政策过于紧缩 美联储威廉姆斯: 美联 于良好位置 阿根廷央行将自2026年 ...

编者按： 日前召开的中央经济工作会议，明确了明年经济工作的总体要求和政策取向，部署了明年经济工作"八个 坚持"的重点任务，抓住关键、纲举目张。为深入学习贯彻会议精神，本报即日起推出"落实会议部署 问 答中国经济"系列述评，围绕发展目标设定、赤字规模安排、推动投资企稳等10个方面热点问题展开讨 论，敬请关注。 做好经济工作，离不开量化的预期目标做牵引。国内生产总值（GDP）增速、居民消费价格涨幅、城镇新增就 业数量、城镇调查失业率等，是社会各界最为关注的几个发展目标。目前距离明年全国两会政府工作报告公布 具体数值还有时日，但根据中央经济工作会议透露的政策信息，可以描画部分预期目标的大致轮廓。 设定经济增速目标，要统筹考虑"推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长"，平衡经济发展"质"与"量"的关 系，必须坚持因地制宜、实事求是。对于当前面临的形势，中央经济工作会议作出精准判断：我国经济发展中 老问题、新挑战仍然不少，外部环境变化影响加深，国内供强需弱矛盾突出，重点领域风险隐患较多。这些大 多是发展中、转型中的问题，经过努力是可以解决的，我国经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有改变。这 个判断既对短期困难有清醒认识 ...

一、国际新闻 隔夜国际金融市场呈现多空交织态势，美股三大指数集体收跌，道指跌0.09%，纳指跌0.59%，标普500 指数跌0.16%，其中特斯拉股价逆势上涨3.5%，推动马斯克身价首次达到6000亿美元，成为有史以来首 位突破该关口的富豪。 大宗商品方面，贵金属延续涨势，现货黄金突破4310美元/盎司，纽约期金突破4340美元/盎司，日内分 别上涨0.10%和0.09%；原油价格则承压下跌，WTI原油期货收跌1.08%报56.82美元/桶，布伦特原油期 货收跌0.92%报60.56美元/桶，盘中WTI原油曾短暂突破57美元/桶。 此外，高盛上调2026年铜价预测至11,400美元/吨，美国银行预计明年铝价将突破3000美元/吨，因供应 短缺预期升温。 二、国内新闻 国际市场中国概念股表现疲软，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌2.17%，多只个股跌幅显著：复朗集团跌 9.57%，能链智电跌9.52%，小牛电动跌6.92%，嘉楠科技跌6.15%，趣店跌6.25%；盘中指数一度跌超 2%，反映市场对中概股短期情绪谨慎。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型基于第三方数据库自动发布，任何在本文出现的信 息（包括但 ...