Core Insights - Tokyo's CPI has declined for two consecutive months, with energy prices falling significantly and food price increases slowing down, while service prices continue to rise moderately [1][9] - The core CPI stands at 2.0%, exactly at the central bank's target, which may lead to a more cautious approach from the Bank of Japan regarding interest rate hikes [1][9] Inflation Trends - January's Tokyo core CPI (excluding fresh food) increased by 2.0%, below the expected 2.2% and down from the previous 2.3% [4] - The overall Tokyo CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) rose by 2.4%, lower than the expected 2.6% and the previous 2.6% [4] - The overall Tokyo CPI increased by 1.5%, below the expected 1.7% and the previous 2% [4] - The decline in CPI indicates a reduction in inflationary pressure across Japan [4][10] Energy Price Impact - Energy prices have significantly contributed to the inflation slowdown, with gasoline prices dropping by 14.8% year-on-year, a substantial increase from the previous month's decline of 6.4% [5] - Overall energy prices fell by 4.2%, contributing negatively to inflation by 0.22 percentage points [5] - Month-on-month data shows gasoline prices decreased by 4.8%, electricity prices fell by 0.1%, and city gas prices dropped by 0.6% [5] Food Price Trends - Food price increases have continued to slow, with prices (excluding fresh food) rising by 5.6% in January, down from 6.2% the previous month [6] - The contribution of food prices to overall inflation decreased from 1.43 percentage points to 1.30 percentage points [6] - Fresh vegetable prices fell by 13.2%, with cabbage prices plummeting by 64.4% and fresh fruit prices down by 10.8% [7] Service Price Stability - Service prices have continued to support inflation, with residential rents increasing by 1.5%, and private rents rising by 2.1%, contributing 0.08 percentage points to overall inflation [8] - Communication costs rose by 6.4%, driven by an 11.0% increase in mobile communication fees, contributing 0.15 percentage points to inflation [8] - Education and entertainment service prices increased by 2.2%, with accommodation costs rising by 6.0%, although this was a slowdown from the previous month's 7.8% [8] Central Bank Policy Implications - The comprehensive slowdown in Tokyo's inflation data may influence the Bank of Japan's policy stance, with the core inflation rate at the target level but showing a cooling trend [9] - Seasonally adjusted month-on-month data indicates that CPI (excluding fresh food) remained flat compared to the previous month, suggesting weakened short-term inflation momentum [9] - The Tokyo CPI is viewed as a leading indicator for national inflation, with the trends expected to be confirmed in upcoming national data releases [10]

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 2026 年 2 月报 宏观 全球货币分化，国内宏观强韧性 核心观点 美国方面，制造业与服务业继续分化，服务业强韧性支撑美国 宏观基本面。通胀表现温和，就业数据也有所修复，美联储降息节 奏放缓，美债收益率有所回升。后续主要关注就业数据的持续改善 情况以及特朗普对美联储的政治施压情况。欧洲方面，欧元区核心 通胀指标与 2%的目标一致，欧洲央行降息节奏放缓，未来需要重点 关注内部欧洲地区薪资增速以及外部贸易与地缘政治局势的情况。 日本方面，随着通胀增速放缓，1 月份日本央行宣布维持政策利率 不变，但上调了中长期通胀预测。不过日本政府的财政扩张政策倾 向以及财政可持续性担忧也在持续推升日债收益率。日本央行加息 放缓很大程度上是为了保持债市稳定，但是相应地日元汇率端将明 显承压，后续需要关注日本官方对日元的干预情况 12 月宏观经济数据呈现较强韧性：制造业 PMI 重回扩张区间， CPI 温和回升，PPI 跌幅收窄，新增企业信贷数据有所改善。不过内 需有效需求不足的问题仍存，具体表现在居民端，新增居民信贷数 据表现较弱。1 月 15 ...

下任美联储主席人选即将公布。 当地时间1月29日晚间，美国总统特朗普在一场活动中被问及何时公布下任美联储主席人选时说，"明天 上午"。 现任美联储主席鲍威尔任期将于5月结束，他还将主持3月、4月两次议息会议。 从去年下半年以来，下任美联储主席的头号人选在以下四人间多次变化，他们分别是白宫国家经济委员 会主任凯文·哈西特、美联储前理事凯文·沃什、美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒、贝莱德集团全球固定收益 首席投资官里克・里德（Rick Rieder）。 在线博彩网站Polymarket最新数据显示，沃什获得提名的概率飙升至80%，与其他候选人明显拉开距 离，而最近的头号人选里德获得提名的概率降至10%。 沃什出生于1970年4月，他本科毕业于斯坦福大学，他是哈佛大学的法学博士。他目前是斯坦·德鲁肯米 勒家族办公室Duquesne的合伙人、斯坦福大学访问学者。德鲁肯米勒是美国传奇投资人，他与美国财政 部长贝森特都曾在索罗斯基金担任要职。沃什的人脉关系还包括知名投资人彼得・蒂尔、风险投资家马 克・安德森。蒂尔也是最早公开支持特朗普的硅谷创投大佬之一。此外，沃什的夫人Jane Lauder是雅诗 兰黛的继承人之一。 沃什曾供 ...

里克·里德尔（Rick Rieder） 美国总统特朗普周四表示，他打算在下周宣布接替美联储主席鲍威尔的人选，届时，关于鲍威尔将于5 月卸任后由谁领导美国央行的猜测日益甚嚣尘上。 "我们将宣布美联储主席人选，我认为，这将是一个能做好工作的人，"特朗普在今年的首次内阁会议上 表示，重申了他关于大幅降低利率的一贯主张。 美联储在2025年降息三次，在周三结束为期两天的政策会议，维持基准利率在3.50%·3.75%区间不变。 特朗普表示，利率应降低两到三个百分点，这一水平在历史上与经济停滞或衰退是一致的。 美国商务部的数据显示，第三季度年化经济增长率为4.4%。 在特朗普政府长达数月的正式物色鲍威尔继任者的过程中，人们看到总统倾向于不同的候选人，即使他 已经加大了对美联储决策施加影响的力度，而美联储不受政治压力的独立性被视为其控制通胀能力的关 键。 近几个月来，特朗普曾试图在一起已提交最高法院的案件中解雇一名美联储理事，他的司法部也对鲍威 尔就建筑翻新发表的言论展开了刑事调查，美联储主席称此举是在货币政策问题上向他施压的"借口"。 特朗普候选名单上的四位候选人 里克·里德尔（Rick Rieder） 美国总统特朗普周 ...

尽管存在反对票，但官方表述并未释放出明确的宽松信号。政策声明继续强调经济活动保持稳健扩张，就业市场虽降温但并未恶化，通胀仍被描述为略高于 目标。这种措辞组合显示，多数决策者仍希望通过时间换取更多确定性，而非在数据尚未形成一致指向前贸然转向。FXTRADING分析认为，当前美联储 更像是在为未来政策转向做铺垫，而非立即启动行动，短期内政策不确定性主要体现在节奏而非方向。 加拿大央行维持中性立场 新西兰年末贸易回暖 新西兰12 月商品进出口规模同比均实现约 15% 的增长，使得当月录得约 5200 万新西兰元的贸易顺差，虽属温和水平，但明显优于市场此前的保守预期。 从结构上看，出口与进口同步扩张，反映出年末阶段无论是外部需求还是国内吸纳能力，均处于相对活跃状态。 从出口去向看，主要贸易伙伴贡献较为均衡。对澳大利亚和欧盟的出口增幅尤为突出，增速均达到两位数，显示区域贸易关系持续升温。与此同时，对美国 和日本的出口亦保持正增长，尽管幅度存在差异，但整体表明新西兰出口并未对单一市场形成过度依赖。进口方面，来自澳大利亚与欧盟的商品流入明显增 加，而来自美国的进口出现回落，在一定程度上缓和了进口扩张对贸易余额的挤压。FXT ...

美联储主席鲍威尔强调政策"无预定路线"，委员会投票结果显示，两名官员投下了反对票，主张应降息25个基点。 北京时间1月29日凌晨，美联储2026年首次议息会议决定，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%之间不变 这一决定标志着美联储终结了自2025年9月以来的"三连降"，符合市场此前超过95%的预期 值得注意的是，美联储在本次声明中将经济增长描述从"温和"上调至"稳健" 美联储的决定终结了自2025年下半年开始的降息周期。在此之前，美联储已在2025年连续三次降息，总幅度达75个基点 2025年的最后一次降息发生在12月，将联邦基金利率目标区间降至3.5%至3.75% 在本次会议声明中，美联储对经济的描述从"温和"上调至"稳健" 美联储表示，现有指标表明，经济活动正以"稳健速度扩张"，失业率趋于稳定，通胀水平"仍然略显偏高" 有分析指出，通胀仍然是美联储决策的关键考量。美联储在声明中删除了去年12月提到的"通胀已朝着2%目标取得进展"的表述，仅保留了"通胀依然略显偏 高"的描述 美联储内部的分歧在本次会议上也显露无遗。美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒和斯蒂芬·米兰投下反对票，主张在本次会议上降息25个基点 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China Shanghai Headquarters reported that the social financing scale in Shanghai increased by 1.1632 trillion yuan in 2025, which is 102.1 billion yuan more than the previous year, effectively meeting the financing needs of the real economy [1]. Financing Structure - The structure of financing shows that RMB loans to the real economy increased by 658.9 billion yuan, accounting for 56.6% of the total social financing increment. Direct financing rose by 341.9 billion yuan, making up 29.4% of the total, with a year-on-year increase of 15 percentage points [1]. - Net financing from various types of bonds reached 287.2 billion yuan, an increase of 151.7 billion yuan year-on-year, while net financing from non-financial corporate stocks was 54.7 billion yuan, up by 36.9 billion yuan year-on-year [1]. - Off-balance-sheet net financing, including entrusted loans, trust loans, and undiscounted bank acceptance bills, increased by 73.5 billion yuan, which is 148.7 billion yuan more than the previous year [1]. Loan and Deposit Growth - By the end of December, the total balance of loans in both domestic and foreign currencies reached 13.07 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, which is 0.3 percentage points higher than the national average. The total increase in loans for the year was 796.7 billion yuan [1]. - Household loans grew by 8.1% year-on-year, with personal housing loans increasing by 7.9%. Non-financial corporate loans rose by 4.5%, and overseas loans saw a significant increase of 22.9% [2]. - The total balance of deposits in both domestic and foreign currencies was 24.5 trillion yuan at the end of December, reflecting an 11.3% year-on-year growth, which is 2.3 percentage points higher than the national average. The total increase in deposits for the year was 2.49 trillion yuan [2]. Future Financial Policy - The People's Bank of China plans to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy and promote coordinated fiscal and financial measures to stimulate domestic demand. The aim is to maintain low comprehensive financing costs and enhance the quality and efficiency of financial services for the real economy, supporting Shanghai's strong start in the 14th Five-Year Plan [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates has extinguished expectations for policy easing in early 2026, marking a significant turning point in market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Prior to the Fed's meeting, the market had over a 40% bet on a rate cut in January, but this probability plummeted to nearly 0% due to unexpectedly resilient inflation [1][2]. - Bitcoin remains trapped below $89,500 following the rate decision, failing to capitalize on any potential upward momentum [3][4]. - The U.S. dollar index rebounded strongly after previous adjustments, while spot gold surged by 3.7%, nearing a historical high of $5,300 per ounce, indicating a preference for traditional safe-haven assets amid policy uncertainty [3][4]. Group 2: Future Rate Expectations - Market expectations for a rate cut in March are now only around 16%, with April's probability slightly increasing to about 30% [4]. - A prolonged high-rate environment poses a significant burden on digital assets that lack interest income, suggesting ongoing repricing pressure for risk assets [4]. - The Fed's internal dissent, with two votes supporting a 25 basis point cut, highlights potential volatility triggers in the currency and crypto markets [3][4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors are currently navigating a vacuum between tightening liquidity and economic stability, with January's policy decision closing the door on rapid dovish shifts [2][4]. - Despite the challenges, there remains a glimmer of hope for slight easing in the second quarter, with $89,500 becoming a critical resistance level for Bitcoin [2][4]. - The company advises investors to maintain flexible asset allocations to manage potential high volatility in the complex macro environment [4].

1月29日，全球金融市场正因金银价格接连打破历史记录而沸腾，但在GTC泽汇资本看来，美联储主席 鲍威尔对这一波贵金属的史诗级反弹表现得异常冷静。尽管市场热度居高不下，美联储高层似乎更倾向 于将注意力集中在宏观经济数据的稳定性上，而非单一资产价格的暴涨。 这种价格飙升的背后，伴随着市场对美联储政治独立性的疑虑。GTC泽汇资本表示，鲍威尔在货币政策 发布会上果断驳斥了"信誉流失"的观点，并强调通胀预期尚在掌控之中。美联储在今年首次议息会议上 决定将联邦基金利率维持在3.50%至3.75%的区间，这一举措符合市场预期，也反映了决策层在降息路 径上的谨慎态度。 目前，现货黄金已触及每盎司5387.70美元的高位，单日涨幅接近4%。GTC泽汇资本认为，黄金市场的 这种"免疫力"极具启发性。即便鲍威尔试图通过中性立场淡化黄金的避险属性，并暗示未来仍存在加息 的理论可能，但投资者显然选择"向后看"。市场目前的逻辑并非基于现任主席的口头打压，而是押注于 5月之后可能出现的人事更替及其带来的潜在货币政策转向。 此外，地缘政治的持续动荡也是推升金价在本月实现24.5%增长的核心驱动力。GTC泽汇资本表示，虽 然美联储认为全球贸易 ...

来源：环球市场播报 北京时间1月29日晚，美股周四开盘涨跌不一。交易员正在消化Meta与微软等科技公司发布的财报，以 及美联储昨日公布的最新利率决议。苹果将在周四收盘后公布业绩。 Facebook的母公司Meta Platforms公布强于预期的第一季度销售预测后，股价大幅上涨。作为最早披露 业绩的AI巨头之一，Meta Platforms表示，今年资本开支最高可达1，350亿美元，显著高于市场约1100 亿美元的预期。 同为科技股"七巨头"成员的特斯拉股价也有所上涨，此前该公司公布的第四季度业绩超出预期。 但大盘涨幅受到微软股价下跌的抑制。这家科技巨头报告称，在第二财季，其云业务增长放缓。该公司 还对财年第三季度的运营利润率给出了疲软的指引。 投资者现在将注意力转向苹果，该公司定于周四收盘后公布财报。 摩根大通分析师指出："从META和微软目前释放的信息看，一个共同主题是资本开支高于预期，表明 AI支出仍在加速上行。"他们认为差异在于，Meta同时将2026年营收展望上调至显著高于市场预期。 在其他财报方面，工业巨头卡特彼勒在第四季度业绩轻松超出市场预期。 投资者仍在权衡美联储的货币政策影响。 周三美联储将 ...