地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 28 日 热点品种 沥青： 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回升 2.0 个百分点至 30.7%，较去年同期高了 7.1 个百分点，沥青开工率继续回升，升至近年同期中性偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据， 5 月份预计排产 231.8 万吨，环比增加 2.9 万吨，增幅为 1.3%，同比增加 3 万 吨，增幅为 1.3%。上周沥青下游开工率环比提升，其中道路沥青开工环比增加 4.5 个百分点至 24.5%，开工率提升较快，但仍处于偏低水平。上周炼厂复产叠 加节前备货，沥青出货量增加明显，全国出货量环比增加 42.42%至 29.11 万吨， 升至中性偏低位。沥青炼厂库存存货比上周环比略有下降，仍处于近年来同期的 最低位，南方有降雨间歇影响，沥青实际需求仍有待恢复。4 月 16 日，美国财政 部制裁购买伊朗原油的山东胜星化工，表示要将伊朗的非法石油出口降至零。近 期美国加大对伊朗的制裁，美伊第三轮间接会谈结束，伊朗外长阿拉格齐表示， 双方仍存在分歧。但双方承诺会 ...

"全球贸易战的始作俑者" ——多国媒体和专家批评美国滥施关税 科摩罗主流网络媒体科摩罗新闻网批评美国以"全球贸易警察"自居发起关税战，不仅是蓄意挑 衅，更是犯下战略错误，由此引发的经济紧张局势让世界变得十分脆弱。 克罗地亚经济分析师佩塔尔·武什科维奇表示，美国关税政策可能成为"全球经济衰退的导火索"。 从全球股市剧烈波动可以看出，经济衰退迹象已经显现，所有利益相关方都面临美国带来的风 险。 美国新一届政府上台后，推出一系列规模大、范围广、破坏性强的关税政策，引发国际社会广泛 批评。多国人士及国际舆论指出，美国单方面挑起全球贸易战并将关税工具化、武器化，美方霸 凌胁迫之举逆世界潮流而动，只会害人害己。 将世界经济置于危险境地 如果将一系列最新关税措施相叠加，美国关税税率将攀升至一个多世纪以来最高水平。不少媒体 报道说，美国在历史上屡次挑起贸易战，当前做法更是变本加厉。 彭博社刊文将美国称作"全球贸易战的始作俑者"。文章说，如果所谓"对等关税"全部生效，这将 是美国自1968年以来最大规模的一次加税，而"白宫没有任何后备措施来避免经济衰退"。 斯里兰卡卫报网刊文说，美国继近一个世纪前发动全球贸易战后，如今再次挥舞 ...

在错误的时间开了寂寞的花，却荒芜了轮回的春夏，曾经不以为然的瞬间，却可能成为后来无法释然的永远，没有谁的经历是一纸空白，再乏味的行情都会 不断有故事填满，错过的行情不能当没错过，拥有过的利润，永远都是自己的谈资。 所以对于操作上，周初平开，短期的支撑可以先关注3300的整数关口，强支撑留意3260-70，直接上升就需要留意3385附近关键压力的得失，更多实时的解 读，我们周初在做分享。 以上内容仅代表个人观点，不作为操作依据。 黄金周线上周收了一根长上影线的倒锤子形态，在3500的整数关口承压坠地回撤到了3260一线，下周的跌势能否进一步延续？ 首先我们先看几则周末的基本面快讯，美联储金融报告称，全球贸易战和政策的不定性是金融稳定的最大风险，也导致多数国家对美元价值的担忧，其次， 美联储官员发表6月有可能降息的言论，加上地缘局势出现了不稳定性，这些对黄金的价格短期也形成了一定的支撑。并且技术面上周五4小时1小时收线光 头阳线。那么周初如果平开，还是大概率会延续近期早间循环回升的节奏，但是要注意的是，日线界别在压制3500回落之后，已经连续3个交易日大区间震 荡，上下边沿比较清晰3385-3260。按照近期早间 ...

美联储金融稳定报告：全球贸易战和政策不确定性是金融稳定的最大风险 美联储周五公布的最新金融稳定报告显示，全球贸易风险上升、总体政策不确定性以及美国债务的可持 续性高居美国金融体系潜在风险的榜首。这是自特朗普重返白宫以来，美联储首次对金融风险进行半年 一次的调查。73%的受访者表示，全球贸易风险是他们最担心的问题，这一比例是11月份报告的两倍 多。半数受访者认为，总体政策不确定性是最令人担忧的问题，这一比例较去年同期有所上升。调查还 发现，与近期市场动荡相关的问题受到了更多关注，27%的受访者担心美国国债市场的运转，高于去年 秋季的17%。外国对美国资产的撤资和美元的价值也在担忧名单上上升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market shows signs of stabilization with a slight decrease in sales area, indicating a need for further consolidation of this trend [1][2][11] Sales Performance - In March, the national sales area of commercial housing decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, a reduction of 4.2 percentage points compared to January-February, but still remains in negative territory [1][2] - The sales improvement is more pronounced in high-tier cities, with 40 cities reporting a 6% year-on-year increase in new home transaction area [2][11] - As of April 11, the transaction area in these 40 cities decreased by 4% year-on-year, indicating a weakening momentum compared to March [2] Investment and Construction - The real estate development investment in March fell by 10.0% year-on-year, with the decline slightly widening by 0.2 percentage points compared to January-February [11] - There is a notable improvement in construction enthusiasm among real estate companies, with new construction area in March decreasing by 18.1%, a significant narrowing of the decline by 11.5 percentage points compared to January-February [11] - The completion area in March also saw a year-on-year decrease of 11.5%, with a reduction in the decline by 4.1 percentage points compared to January-February [11] Policy and Market Outlook - The external pressures from global trade uncertainties have led to a long-term strategy of expanding domestic demand, with expectations for increased supportive policies in the real estate sector [17] - The ongoing push for policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand is anticipated to continue, with a recommendation for high-quality commercial real estate companies [17]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in tin prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been characterized by significant volatility, with prices rising over 10% in the first quarter and reaching a 34-month high before experiencing a drop of over 20% in just five trading days, driven by macroeconomic shocks and supply-demand mismatches [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The sharp decline in tin prices is attributed to two main factors: the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy raising concerns about increased global trade costs and demand contraction, and supply expectation adjustments from major producing regions like Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo [2]. - The ongoing trade war and changing tariff policies have led to heightened market risk aversion, significantly impacting tin as a high-volatility commodity [2]. - The tightening of dollar liquidity and geopolitical conflicts have further exacerbated market fluctuations, with LME tin inventories dropping to their lowest point in 2023 [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Current supply-demand dynamics indicate a "tight but not lacking" supply situation, with demand showing signs of recovery from weakness [6]. - Data shows that China's tin ore imports in January-February 2025 fell nearly 50% year-on-year, with a sharp 81.07% decline in imports from Myanmar, influenced by recent earthquakes affecting supply [6]. - The global mining capital expenditure growth rate for tin-related projects from 2019 to 2024 is only 1.2%, indicating a mismatch between existing project recovery and new project development timelines against demand growth [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The demand for tin is expected to significantly improve in the medium to long term, supported by growth in sectors such as semiconductor chips, 5G communications, photovoltaic cells, and AI chip soldering materials [6][8]. - The International Tin Association predicts a "non-linear leap" in tin demand from AI servers, with consumption per server expected to be three times that of traditional devices by 2025 [8]. - Despite the ongoing global trade tensions, tin is recognized as a strategic resource, with its overall value anticipated to rise as macroeconomic concerns are gradually absorbed by the market [8].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has faced significant challenges recently, with its stock price dropping approximately 30% since the end of 2024, indicating that aggressive growth rates may be a thing of the past. Analysts suggest that Nvidia's stock is overvalued and recommend selling due to substantial downside potential [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Nvidia experienced a strong finish in 2024 with soaring revenues, but market sentiment is shifting as competitors like Deepseek demonstrate higher efficiency at lower costs, raising doubts about the necessity of Nvidia's GPUs for running models [2][3]. - Reports indicate that Microsoft has paused some data center projects, suggesting potential overcapacity in AI data centers, which could negatively impact Nvidia's performance in upcoming quarters [2][3]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Major clients of Nvidia, including Amazon, OpenAI, Google, and Meta, are developing custom chips to reduce reliance on Nvidia, threatening its dominance in the AI accelerator market [3][4]. - The escalation of global trade tensions poses additional challenges for Nvidia, particularly in its operations in China, where sales remain below pre-export control levels [3][4]. Group 3: Financial Valuation - Nvidia's stock was previously overvalued at $132 per share, with an intrinsic value estimated at $91.20 per share. Current economic factors suggest that intrinsic value may be even lower, indicating further downside potential [4][6]. - Updated valuation models show Nvidia's enterprise value at $1.79 trillion and equity value at $1.83 trillion, translating to an intrinsic value of $73.87 per share, suggesting Nvidia is overvalued by approximately 22% [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts have adjusted sales growth expectations for fiscal year 2026 down to 50% due to the impact of trade tensions, with further adjustments likely after the first quarter earnings report [5][6]. - Despite the challenging environment, there are signals that the U.S. government may be open to trade negotiations, which could alleviate some economic pressures on Nvidia [8].

国芯网[原:中国半导体论坛] 振兴国产半导体产业！ 不拘中国、 放眼世界 ！ 关注 世界半导体论坛 ↓ ↓ ↓ 4月7日消息，受特朗普抛出的"对等关税"政策影响，中国台湾地区股票交易市场出现 "跳水式暴 跌"， 台积电 开盘近下跌10%， 触发台股熔断机制！ 今日是台湾地区清明连假结束后的首个台股交易日，据台媒报道，开盘后台股便出现"跳水式暴 跌"。大盘一开盘便狂泻2000点，不仅失守具有象征意义的2万点重要关卡，还创下了台股史上"最 大开盘跌点纪录"。 台积电开盘跳空跌停价848元，为去年8月初以来低位，也是 16 年 4 个月以来首次开盘即跳空跌 停。台积电上一次盘中触及跌停是2024年8月 5 日，因美股收黑走低。上一次开盘即跳空跌停是 16 年 4 个月前的 2008 年 12 月 2 日，当时次级房贷危机引发全球金融海啸。 据报道，岛内"三大权值股"台积电、鸿海、联发科同步亮灯跌停，电子、AI、金融等板块全面溃 散，盘面血流成河。 岛内有机构表示，美国政府4月2日公布关税政策不仅冲击全球股市、引发多个经济体表态反制，全 球贸易战升温，市场担忧美国经济未来发展打击美股与台股投资人信心，不利台股近期表现 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US government's tariff policy has a significant impact on global capital markets, with sharp declines in major indices such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Saudi All-Share Index [7]. - China will impose a 34% tariff on all imported goods from the US starting from April 10, 2025, which is expected to affect the market sentiment of related products [12][19]. - The global manufacturing recovery is weakening, while China's consumer market is showing positive momentum in the first quarter [8]. - The performance of various commodities and financial markets is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - economic conditions, and investors need to pay attention to risks and opportunities [12][13][14][15][18][19][20] Summary by Directory Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - **Stock Indices**: On April 7, 2025, compared with April 6, major global stock indices generally declined. The Dow Jones Industrial Index dropped by 5.503% to 38314.86, the Nasdaq Index fell by 5.817% to 15587.79, and the S&P 500 decreased by 5.975% to 5074.08. The Hang Seng Index declined by 1.520% to 22849.81 [2]. - **Currencies**: The SHIBOR overnight rate decreased by 7.916% to 1.62, the US dollar index dropped by 0.415% to 102.49, and the US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CFETS) remained unchanged at 7.30 [2]. - **Commodities**: Most commodities showed price declines. For example, COMEX gold decreased by 2.613% to 3056.10, COMEX silver fell by 7.518% to 29.53, and LME copper dropped by 7.223% to 8690.00. However, CBOT corn rose by 0.436% to 460.50 [2]. Macro - Economic News - **Global Market Impact**: The US tariff policy has led to significant drops in global stock markets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling more than 10% and 11% respectively in two days. Saudi All - Share Index tumbled 6.78%, and Saudi Aramco's market value evaporated about $90 billion [7]. - **Upcoming Events**: China will impose a 34% tariff on US goods starting from April 10; the EU plans to take comprehensive counter - measures against US tariffs; inflation data of China and the US in March will be released; the US earnings season will start; and the 2025 Global 6G Technology and Industry Ecology Conference will be held in Nanjing [7]. - **China's Economic Situation**: China is strengthening its opening - up legal system, attracting more international investors. The global manufacturing PMI in March was 49.6%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. China's consumer market showed positive momentum in the first quarter, with the offline consumption heat index increasing by 14.2% year - on - year [8]. - **Regional Economic Developments**: In Zhejiang, manufacturing investment increased significantly from January to February. Hunan Province plans to develop a credible data space, aiming to have over 500 network nodes by 2028 [9]. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The spot market is in a stalemate. With the tariff on US goods, the peanut market is expected to rise with oilseeds and meals [12]. - **Oils and Fats**: The tariff on US imports is expected to drive the oil and meal market to be bullish [12]. - **Sugar**: The price has broken through the previous range. Short - term buying on dips is recommended, but attention should be paid to the resistance at 6200 and the risk of price correction [12]. - **Corn**: The price has shown a stable rebound. Buying on dips is suggested, but beware of port inventory pressure and weak spot price follow - up [12]. - **Hogs**: The spot price is stable, and the futures contract is in a discount state, oscillating between 13500 - 14000. A 5 - 10 positive spread can be considered [12][14]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to the price changes around holidays [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The 2505 contract may continue to be weak, but beware of short - term rebound due to position reduction [14]. - **Urea**: The price is stable with a slight weakness. The UR2505 contract is expected to trade between 1840 - 1930 yuan/ton. Unilateral operations should be cautious [14]. Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Affected by the US tariff policy, the prices of copper and aluminum have weakened. Copper and aluminum inventories have decreased [13][14][15]. - **Alumina**: The 2505 contract is expected to be weak, and beware of short - term rebound due to position reduction [15]. - **Steel Products**: The inventory of five major steel products is decreasing. The prices of steel products may continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the support levels of 3200 for rebar and 3300 for hot - rolled coils [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: Silicon iron and manganese silicon are expected to continue weak oscillations [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices may face pressure due to tariff sentiment, and they are in a weak oscillation at low levels [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is in a weak oscillation. Short positions are recommended, but beware of over - decline rebound [15][16]. Options and Financial Markets - **Stock Market Performance**: On April 3, A - share indices closed lower. The US tariff policy has put pressure on the A - share market. The domestic market may remain weak in the short - term. Before a significant bottom - out with heavy trading volume, short - term volatility strategies can be considered; otherwise, combination arbitrage strategies of IF/IH and IC/IM can be used [18][19][20].

Group 1 - The Australian stock market experienced a significant drop, with a market value loss of 35 billion AUD, influenced by Trump's tariff policies [1] - The S&P/ASX 200 index fell by 1.4% to 7751.1 points, with most sectors declining sharply, particularly the energy sector, which saw a nearly 6% drop [1] - Approximately 4% of Australian export goods are sent to the United States, indicating that Trump's tariffs will not have a direct impact on Australian exports [1] Group 2 - The total tariffs imposed by the U.S. on China have increased to 54%, which is expected to negatively affect Australian exporters due to decreased demand from China, Australia's largest trading partner [3] - The U.S. financial markets were also shaken, with the S&P 500 index dropping by 3.7%, the European STOXX 600 index down by 2.7%, and the Tokyo benchmark index falling by 2.8% [3] - Global oil prices decreased by over 2 USD per barrel as a result of the market turmoil [3] Group 3 - Trump's tariff actions are anticipated to trigger a global trade war, with countries such as China, the EU, South Korea, Mexico, and India indicating plans for retaliatory measures [5] - Analysts believe that these actions will disrupt global trade order and undermine decades of efforts to reduce tariffs through trade negotiations and free trade agreements [5] - Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid described the situation as a "radical policy restructuring," noting that the current average tariffs in the U.S. range from 25% to 30%, marking the highest levels since the early 20th century [5]