中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 债券收益率冲高回落，影响黄金的短期节奏，但是关税问题远没有解决，俄乌 | | 黄金 | 震荡冲高 | 战火、中东仍然复杂。央行或继续购金。本轮大牛的主要驱动是国际秩序改变， | | | | 长期看黄金是未来秩序筹码，尚在秩序重塑途中，战略配置价值高。【760-787】 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 需求方面，全球经济需求较去年或有下降，供给量变化不大，尽管各国财政关 税对冲关税带来的负面影响，但是受黄金和基本金属影响较大，黄金波动刺激 | | | | 跟随，价格没有摆脱此前区间，操作上仍延续此前的区间思路对待。【8200-8390】 | | 铜 | 承压 | 随着端午假期临近，市场避险情绪回升，铜承压回落，关注下方整数关口支撑，空 | | | | 仓或者轻仓过节，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【77000，78000】 | | 锌 | 承压 | 短期供应扰动冲击影响消退，随着端午长假临近，市场避险情绪回升，建议暂 | | | | 时观望，长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会。沪锌关注区间【22 ...

Group 1 - The Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, William Pulte, publicly urged Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to restart the interest rate cut cycle to alleviate pressure on the housing market [1] - Pulte emphasized that lowering interest rates would directly improve homebuyer affordability and inject much-needed liquidity into the stagnant housing market [1] - The Trump administration has consistently pressured the Federal Reserve to lower borrowing costs, linking tight monetary policy with trade protectionism that suppresses economic vitality [3] Group 2 - Economists point out that the underlying issues in the U.S. housing market stem from structural contradictions, including a growing housing inventory gap and limited new home construction due to rising material costs and labor shortages [3] - The National Association of Home Builders reported that the cost of single-family home construction has increased by 37% compared to 2020 [3] - Over 60% of retail businesses plan to raise end prices in the coming quarters to pass on the cost pressures from tariffs, indicating a cost-push inflation scenario [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve has maintained its policy stance despite political pressure, keeping the interest rate range at 4.25%-4.5% after a cumulative cut of 100 basis points in the second half of 2024 [4] - Powell stated that monetary policy will not yield to short-term political considerations, emphasizing the need for strategic consistency amid economic uncertainties caused by tariff disputes [4] - The combination of rising construction costs and labor shortages, along with tariff-induced price increases, poses a dual pressure on the housing market, complicating the Fed's ability to achieve its 2% inflation target [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are neutral. The short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, but the long - term negotiation results remain uncertain. The prices of crude oil and coal are weak, weakening the cost - side support. For LLDPE, it's the off - season for agricultural films, and there is still pressure from new capacity. For PP, downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs and performs generally. It is expected that both LLDPE and PP will show a volatile trend today [4][7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In April, the official PMI was 49%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from March, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4%, an 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from March, both at recent lows. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 7440 (unchanged), with overall neutral fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 355, and the premium - discount ratio is 5.0%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 58.4 tons (unchanged), showing a neutral situation [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, also indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. The short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, but it's the off - season for agricultural film demand, the industrial chain inventory is neutral, and there is still pressure from new capacity [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include a strong basis and short - term tariff relaxation; bearish factors include new capacity release and weak crude oil prices [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In April, the official PMI was 49%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from March, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4%, an 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from March, both at recent lows. The current PP delivery product spot price is 7300 (unchanged), with overall neutral fundamentals [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 352, and the premium - discount ratio is 5.1%, indicating a bullish signal [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 60.4 tons (unchanged), showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract has turned short, indicating a bearish signal [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. The short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs, the industrial chain inventory is neutral [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include a strong basis and short - term tariff relaxation; bearish factors include weak crude oil prices [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with the import dependence gradually decreasing. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16].

Group 1 - The core issue of the US-EU trade negotiations revolves around tariffs, with the Trump administration threatening a 50% tariff on EU automobiles and digital services, while later agreeing to extend the negotiation deadline to July 9 [1][3] - The main demands from the US include reducing EU automobile import tariffs from 10% to zero, abolishing the 3% digital services tax on foreign tech companies, and aligning EU supply chains with US pressures on specific countries [3] - The potential impact of these tariffs could lead to a 65% decline in EU automobile exports to the US and an annual loss of €8 billion for foreign companies affected by the digital services tax [3] Group 2 - The EU's response indicates a willingness to negotiate despite initial strong statements, as the EU automotive industry is significantly dependent on exports to the US, with 23% of its exports going there [3] - The negotiation tactics employed by the Trump administration reflect a pragmatic approach, utilizing a combination of threats and concessions, which has been criticized as weaponizing trade issues [5] - The economic repercussions of the tariff threats are already being felt, with a reported 40% drop in orders for brands like Renault and Peugeot in the US, and concerns that foreign tech companies may relocate their European headquarters to Singapore if disputes escalate [5]

Group 1 - The ongoing tariff negotiations led by the Trump administration are at a stalemate, with temporary measures in place that may lead to high tariffs if no substantial breakthroughs occur by July [1][3] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary revealed that the EU remains a central focus in trade negotiations, with a significant trade volume of over €860 billion, indicating the potential economic impact of mutual tariffs [3][5] - The EU has made rare concessions in negotiations, including commitments to align on labor rights and environmental standards, as well as a gradual reduction of tariffs on agricultural and industrial products [3][5] Group 2 - The U.S. demands have extended beyond trade, encroaching on EU tax sovereignty and regulatory frameworks, which has led to significant frustration among EU officials [5][9] - The automotive industry is a critical battleground, with the U.S. pushing for the relocation of production to America, which poses a threat to the EU's economic backbone [7][9] - Current U.S. tariffs on imported cars stand at 27.5%, while the EU seeks to revert to a 2.5% rate, highlighting the fundamental strategic differences between the two parties [9][11] Group 3 - The trade conflict reflects a broader struggle for economic dominance in the post-industrial era, with both the U.S. and EU vying for leadership in emerging industries [11][12] - The potential for a vicious cycle of tariff escalation and deteriorating relations poses systemic risks to the fragile global economic system [11][12] - The ongoing negotiations represent a significant trust crisis in the transatlantic partnership, with the need for a balance between industrial interests and national sovereignty becoming increasingly critical [12]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-5-22 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：4月官方PMI为 49%，较3月下降1.5个百分点，财新PMI录得 50.4%，较3月下降0.8 个百分点，均为近几个月新低。宏观方面，关税博弈成为近期最重要影响因素，短期关税缓和提 振市场情绪，出现抢时间窗口出口现象，中长期来看最终谈判结果仍存不确定性。原油和煤炭价 格均偏弱，成本端支撑减弱。供需端，农膜淡季，中小工厂停车多，随着关税调整，外贸企业赶 工潮出现。当前LL交割品现货价7440（+0），基本面整体中性 • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差218，升贴水比例3.0%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存58.4万吨（-5.2），中性； • 4. 盘面： ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月21日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-05-20 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3380.47 | 10249.17 | 3898.17 | 11510.62 | 2850.94 | 997.67 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.38 | 0.76 | 0.54 | 1.04 | 1.03 | 0.24 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 4502.90 | 7193.90 | 2016.36 | 2657.65 | 3242.13 | 175.15 | 【重点推荐】 宏观与策略 固定收益专题研究:海外债市系列之三-美国国债市场图谱 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 宏观专题:AI、关税与黄金的启示——2025 年中期宏观展望 行业与公司 电子行业周报：财报季彰显景气，关税博弈趋于缓和，积极布局"估值 扩张" 腾讯音乐(TME.N) 海外公司财报点评:ARPPU 值提升或将成为订阅 ...

Report Title - Polyolefin Morning Report, dated May 21, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. Short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, but the final negotiation result remains uncertain in the medium - to - long term. The supply - demand situation has seasonal characteristics, and the industrial chain inventory is neutral [4][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In April, the official PMI was 49%, down 1.5 percentage points from March, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from March. Tariff games are a major influencing factor. Short - term tariff relaxation has led to a rush - to - work situation among foreign - trade enterprises, while it's the off - season for agricultural film. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery goods is 7440 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 202, with a premium ratio of 2.8%, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 58.4 tons (-5.2), neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The main position of LLDPE is net short, with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile. Short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, and there is a rush - to - work among foreign - trade enterprises. It's the off - season for agricultural film demand, and the industrial chain inventory is neutral [4] - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include a strong basis and better - than - expected Sino - US talks; bearish factors are new capacity launches and weak crude oil prices. The main logics are new capacity launches and tariff policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in April, the official and Caixin PMIs both declined. Tariff games are significant. Short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, and there is a rush - to - work among foreign - trade enterprises. Downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs. The current spot price of PP delivery goods is 7300 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 222, with a premium ratio of 3.1%, which is bullish [6] - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 60.4 tons (-7.2), neutral [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The main position of PP is net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile. Short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, and there is a rush - to - work among foreign - trade enterprises. Downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs, and the industrial chain inventory is neutral [6] - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include a strong basis and better - than - expected Sino - US talks; the bearish factor is weak crude oil prices. The main logics are new capacity launches and tariff policies [7] Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery goods is 7440 (unchanged), the 09 - contract price is 7238 (+2), the basis is 202 (-2), and the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 58.4 tons [8] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery goods is 7300 (unchanged), the 09 - contract price is 7078 (-15), the basis is 222 (+15), and the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 60.4 tons [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in the growth rate. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also generally increased, with varying growth rates. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong stock market is currently in a phase of policy support and uncertainty, leading to a rebalancing situation [1] - The AH premium index has dropped to a near four-year low, with southbound capital becoming cautious and even taking profits, indicating a potential market consolidation phase due to technical overbought pressure [1] - The internal fundamentals show a "weak recovery + differentiation" characteristic, with the manufacturing PMI returning to contraction, and both resident and corporate credit demand remaining sluggish [1] Group 2 - The external environment reflects a conflict between "tactical easing" and "strategic encirclement," with the US-China tariff pause boosting risk appetite, but ongoing technology wars and export restrictions creating pressure in critical sectors [1] - Policy measures such as interest rate cuts and consumption loans are aimed at driving domestic demand recovery, particularly in service consumption and commodities [2] - The strategy suggested is to maintain a "defensive counterattack" approach, focusing on high-dividend defensive sectors and consumer sectors benefiting from policy support and events like the e-commerce "618" promotion [2]

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities and financial markets, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It assesses the supply - demand dynamics, price trends, and potential investment opportunities and risks for each sector. Short - term and long - term outlooks are presented, with specific trading strategies recommended for certain commodities. Summary by Commodity Category Energy - **Crude Oil**: Short - term may show an oscillatory upward trend supported by seasonal demand and geopolitical factors, but the mid - term supply - demand pressure limits the upside. Watch the resistance levels of Brent at $70/barrel and SC at 510 yuan/barrel [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Singapore 380 cracking has strengthened, but there are opportunities for domestic FU cracking to weaken. LU cracking lacks continuous support and has shifted to an oscillatory pattern [21]. - **Natural Gas (LPG)**: The price may decline in the short - term due to supply pressure and weakening PDH operation rate, but pay attention to the recovery of chemical demand [23]. - **Bitumen**: Profit is relatively prominent, with expected decline in production capacity utilization. Northern demand is increasing, while southern demand is affected by rainfall. Overall inventory has decreased significantly [22]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in an oscillatory adjustment phase. Gold has strong support at $3000/ounce, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [3]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Domestic consumption may weaken after mid - May. Maintain short positions above 78,000 yuan for the 2507 contract [4]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory reduction has slowed down. Pay attention to the resistance at 20,300 yuan [5]. - **Alumina**: Although there are concerns about supply, the overall situation is still one of oversupply. Wait for short - selling opportunities after the market sentiment calms down [6]. - **Zinc**: Supply is in the recovery stage, while demand is weak. Maintain a short - allocation view in the range of 22,800 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Lead**: Consumption in May was better than expected, but there are concerns about substitution. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,300 - 17,000 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel is in a weak adjustment phase. The NPI price has declined, and the market is waiting for a new short - selling opportunity [9]. - **Tin**: The long - term trend is under pressure due to supply and demand concerns. Hold short positions near 265,000 yuan or the MA60 moving average [10]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds**: - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: Supply is becoming more abundant, and the spot price of soybean meal is weak. Be cautious about short - selling in the short - term and look for long - term buying opportunities [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: U.S. soybean oil policy has fluctuations. Domestic soybean oil faces pressure from large - scale arrivals, and palm oil is in a production - increasing period. The prices are expected to oscillate within a range [36]. - **Corn**: The price is oscillating weakly. There is a large supply of circulating grain, and the substitution advantage of wheat is emerging [38]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: - **Hogs**: The supply is expected to increase in the medium - to - long - term, and the spot price may decline, putting downward pressure on the futures price [39]. - **Eggs**: The production capacity is expected to increase until September. The price is seasonally weak, and a short - selling strategy is recommended in the long - term [40]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: - **Cotton**: The U.S. cotton planting rate has increased, and Brazil has raised its production forecast. Domestic cotton imports are low. The price is affected by Sino - U.S. negotiations. Consider a bull - spread option strategy [41]. - **Sugar**: Brazilian production may increase, and domestic inventory pressure is light. The price is expected to oscillate [42]. - **Apples**: The market is focused on new - season production estimates. The fruit - setting rate may be low, but the production is still uncertain. Wait and see for now [43]. - **Wood**: The price is running weakly. Supply pressure has decreased, but demand is in the off - season. Wait and see [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The price has increased slightly. Port inventory has decreased significantly, but demand is still weak. Consider light - position buying on dips [45]. Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares are oscillating, and the major indexes may wait for new drivers. Pay attention to the progress of Sino - U.S. economic and trade negotiations [46]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The over - sold recovery of the bond market is almost complete. The bulls may oscillate within a range. Consider a curve - steepening strategy [47]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The short - term focus is on the actual implementation of freight rate increases. The mid - term depends on the improvement of supply - demand through U.S. demand. Adopt an inter - period arbitrage strategy [20].