Core Viewpoint - China's export resilience remains despite a slowdown in growth, influenced by tariff negotiations and market conditions [1][4][5] Export Performance - In May, China's total export amount reached $316.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, but a decline of 3.3 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The export growth rate to the US significantly dropped to -34.5%, with the US accounting for only 9.1% of China's total exports [2][3] - Exports to ASEAN and EU showed strong growth, with ASEAN exports increasing by 14.8% and EU exports by 12% [3] Import Performance - China's import amount in May was $212.88 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%, indicating a weakening domestic demand [4] - Key imports such as coal, crude oil, and natural gas saw significant declines, while high-tech products and machinery imports provided some support [4] Market Outlook - The ongoing tariff negotiations present considerable uncertainty, which may further impact exports in the second half of the year [5] - The company suggests enhancing negotiations with the US while also focusing on domestic economic strategies to boost demand and maintain export stability [5]

Group 1 - The report highlights the acceleration of domestic demand recovery, indicating a significant investment opportunity in the textile and apparel industry for 2025 [3][4] - The SW textile and apparel index increased by 5.5% from January 1 to June 6, 2025, outperforming the Shenwan All A index by 3.6%, ranking 11th among all industries [4][8] - The report identifies several high-growth areas, including high-performance outdoor apparel, discount retail, sleep economy, and maternal and infant consumption, with specific company recommendations [4][5][24] Group 2 - The outdoor apparel market is projected to reach 102.7 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 17% year-on-year, with a low current penetration rate of 25%, indicating substantial growth potential [4][29] - The discount retail sector is highlighted as a resilient area within the consumer market, with brands like Hailan Home showing strong performance through their JD Outlet model [43][46] - The report emphasizes the importance of core manufacturing capabilities in response to tariff changes, suggesting that companies with overseas expansion capabilities will benefit [4][5][24] Group 3 - The textile manufacturing sector is experiencing a mixed performance due to fluctuating tariffs, but leading companies maintain their competitive advantages [4][5] - The report notes that the domestic retail environment is improving, with a 4.7% year-on-year increase in total retail sales in the first four months of 2025, and a 3.1% increase in apparel retail sales [20][23] - The report suggests that the high-performance outdoor apparel segment is characterized by a fragmented market, with the top 10 brands holding only 27.2% market share, indicating opportunities for growth among domestic brands [33][36]

Group 1 - The U.S. is facing a significant debt crisis with a national debt of $36 trillion, prompting the administration to implement unconventional fiscal strategies [1] - The "big and beautiful" tax reform plan is projected to provide $3.75 trillion in tax cuts over ten years, aimed at stimulating the economy [3] - The introduction of a $5 million "golden card" program for permanent residency is seen as a potential source of trillion-dollar funding, reflecting the administration's urgency in addressing fiscal pressures [3] Group 2 - Concerns are rising on Wall Street regarding the sustainability of U.S. debt, with prominent figures warning of a potential debt collapse and the risk of a "death spiral" for government bonds [4] - The trade negotiations with Japan involve a proposal to build a rare earth supply chain in exchange for the U.S. lifting tariffs on steel and aluminum, highlighting the geopolitical complexities of trade relations [6] - The U.S. is heavily reliant on China for rare earth refining, with 90% of global capacity located there, making any relief from tariffs through rare earth cooperation limited [6] Group 3 - The proposed tax cuts could lead to an additional $2.4 trillion in deficits, raising questions about the effectiveness of piecemeal revenue generation strategies in the face of soaring debt [8] - The administration's approach reflects a lack of a systematic fiscal reform framework, as evidenced by the disconnect between large-scale tax cuts and fragmented revenue-raising measures [8] - The ongoing dual challenges of debt and trade negotiations showcase the administration's business-oriented mindset, with each policy move reflecting a strategic negotiation approach [9]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，5月官方PMI为 49.5%，较4月回升0.5，财新PMI48.3，较4月下降2.1， 为去年10月以来首次收缩。关税博弈成为近期重要影响因素，中期来看最终谈判结果仍存不确定 性。Opec+7月连续第三个月增产石油，原油价格偏弱，成本端支撑减弱。供需端，农膜淡季，中 小工厂停车多，新产能投产压力仍存。当前LL交割品现货价7150（+30），基本面整体偏空 • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差101，升贴水比例1.4%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存54万吨（-1.5），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：LLDPE主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：塑料主力合约盘面震荡偏弱，中期关税谈判结果仍存不确定性，Opec+再度增产，农 膜 ...

而对于英国而言，钢铁关税虽暂时未落地，但危机感已经彻底释放。英国钢铁行业长期处于产能焦虑与 投资停滞的困局之中，依赖对美出口维持产能早已不是秘密。据统计，英国每年向美国出口钢铁20万 吨、总值近4亿英镑，这个体量在数字上不算巨大，但对于正挣扎于产能维持与全球价格战中的英国钢 企来说，却是维生管道。一旦失去美国市场，英国钢铁将面临大面积削减产线甚至破产的风险，而这正 是特朗普设定五周时限的心理基础，施压而不立刻打击，让伦敦无法退却。 在谈判细节上，英国方面也并非毫无筹码。雷诺兹部长此次赴巴黎与美方贸易代表会谈，已在议程上加 入"加速行业协议落地"的表达，意图在实质让利的基础上保住关键产业利益。然而，即便最终达成协 议，对英国而言也未必是胜利。从"零关税换市场准入"的表面互利逻辑背后，是英国对美农产品、能源 与化工产品市场进一步开放的结构性让渡，这势必引发英国国内农业、环保与工会团体的激烈反弹。尤 其是在民众对美国产品安全标准普遍存疑的背景下，此类交易将极大考验斯塔默政府的政策平衡能力。 文︱陆弃 在全球钢铁产业链仍未走出低迷周期、地缘政治风险反复扰动国际贸易的关键时刻，特朗普政府突然抛 出一纸"惩罚性关税升级令 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-6-5 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，5月官方PMI为 49.5%，较4月回升0.5，财新PMI48.3，较4月下降2.1， 为去年10月以来首次收缩。关税博弈成为近期重要影响因素，中期来看最终谈判结果仍存不确定 性。Opec+7月连续第三个月增产石油，原油价格偏弱，成本端支撑减弱。供需端，农膜淡季，中 小工厂停车多，新产能投产压力仍存。当前LL交割品现货价7120（+0），基本面整体偏空 • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差157，升贴水比例2.3%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存54万吨（-1.5），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空 ...

Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - Investment Rating: Intraday - Slightly Strong in Volatility; Medium - Term - Accumulating Strength for an Uptrend [1] - Core View: Overseas, US tariff news is inconsistent, causing disturbances to the equity market. Domestically, policies to stabilize and activate the capital market are introduced, which is beneficial for the A - share market. In the short - term, the market may remain volatile, but there is support from policies, and attention should be paid to structural allocation opportunities [1][2] - Reference Strategy: Exit the long IF2506 and short IM2506 hedging portfolio, hold long IF2506 positions, and sell the MO2506 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put option [1] Treasury Bond Futures - Investment Rating: Intraday - Strong in Volatility; Medium - Term - Strong [3] - Core View: Overseas, the fluctuating US tariff situation drives funds to risk assets. The inter - bank market is loose, and the deposit rate cut is beneficial for the long - end bond market in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the large - scale CD maturities in June [4] - Reference Strategy: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [3] Commodity Futures and Options Aluminum - Investment Rating: Intraday - Range - bound; Medium - Term - High - level Operation [5] - Core View: The continuous decline in social inventory and the good performance of the automobile market are positive for aluminum prices, while the general decline in non - ferrous metals is negative [5][6] - Reference Strategy: Hold the short position of AL2507 - P - 19300 [5] Black and Building Materials Sector Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Investment Rating: Intraday - Steel Prices Weak; Medium - Term - Steel Prices Under Pressure [8] - Core View: The raw material inventory of steel has a large pressure, and the downstream consumption of steel is poor, so the upward driving force of steel prices is insufficient [8][9] - Reference Strategy: Continue to sell the call options of rebar RB2510 (exercise price 3300 - 3450) [8]

证 券 研 究 报 告 策略深度报告 关税博弈下的大类资产策略 报告日期： 2025年06月04日 核心结论： 5/12中美会谈联合声明大超预期，虽然后续谈判或仍有波折，且行业关税值得警惕，但关税冲击最激烈的阶段基本过去，市场情绪逐步修复。海外宏观聚焦滞和胀角力， 交易逻辑沿着滞胀-衰退-宽松轮动。美股走强，美债和美元走势背离，衰退风险仍需警惕。美股冲击前高动能不足，预计高位震荡。美债脉冲4.5后的做多机会显现，可逐步配置。黄 金短期震荡，关注3150附近支撑。国内进入政策观察期、经济降温期，业绩与估值再平衡，预计A股区间震荡，重回哑铃策略，关注小盘成长和低波红利。 关税进展：升级后缓和，资产逻辑摇摆 关税动向：中美和谈比市场最乐观的预期还要乐观，关税冲击最激烈的阶段基本过去，后续关注行业关税。 关税影响：若24的对等关税能在90天内如期取消，30关税对中国GDP的拖累在1个百分点左右，对应政策对冲的必要性和紧迫性降低，进入政策观望期。 资产逻辑：大类资产避险资产占优-权益资产修复-震荡运行，已修复4/3以来跌幅。 海外策略：滞与胀角力 ，等待降息信号 海外宏观：目前滞的压力缓和，降息推迟至9月，年内仅有两次 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No such content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US "steel tariff" may be implemented today, and the tariff game and the intensification of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have increased geopolitical risks and global risk aversion. However, the market is waiting for negotiations between the US and its trading partners, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index and an overall increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's May PMI data has rebounded, and the economy is expanding, which helps boost domestic risk appetite. Although the US has raised steel and aluminum tariffs, the expected call between Chinese and US leaders this week also boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to cautiously go long; government bonds are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see; among commodity sectors, black metals are expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see; non-ferrous metals are expected to rebound with fluctuations, and it is advisable to cautiously go long; energy and chemicals are expected to rebound with fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals are expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level, and it is advisable to cautiously go long [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Finance - **Overseas Situation**: The US "steel tariff" may be implemented today, and the tariff game and the intensification of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have increased geopolitical risks and global risk aversion. The market is waiting for negotiations between the US and its trading partners, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index and an overall increase in global risk appetite [2]. - **Domestic Situation**: China's May PMI data has rebounded, and the economy is expanding, which helps boost domestic risk appetite. Although the US has raised steel and aluminum tariffs, the expected call between Chinese and US leaders this week also boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. - **Asset Performance**: The stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to cautiously go long; government bonds are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see; among commodity sectors, black metals are expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see; non-ferrous metals are expected to rebound with fluctuations, and it is advisable to cautiously go long; energy and chemicals are expected to rebound with fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals are expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level, and it is advisable to cautiously go long [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market continued to rise slightly, driven by sectors such as biomedicine, precious metals, and football concepts. China's May PMI data has rebounded, and the economy is expanding, which helps boost domestic risk appetite. Although the US has raised steel and aluminum tariffs, the expected call between Chinese and US leaders this week also boosts domestic risk appetite. The market is currently focused on US trade policies and trade negotiation progress, which may increase market volatility. It is advisable to cautiously go long in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - Precious metals fluctuated and declined on Tuesday due to the strengthening of the US dollar. COMEX gold futures for August delivery fell 0.6% to $3377 per ounce. US labor data showed signs of cooling. The market is awaiting the employment report on Friday, with an expected increase of 130,000 non-farm payrolls in May and a possible rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. Geopolitical risks and policy - related games may increase the volatility of precious metals. The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains stable, and it is advisable to look for long - term investment opportunities after periodic corrections [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Domestic steel futures and spot markets continued to decline on Tuesday, with low trading volumes. The US raising steel tariffs has intensified market pessimism. The market is entering the off - season, and iron ore production has declined for three consecutive weeks, reflecting weak demand. However, steel production is still increasing due to good profits. The steel market will remain weak in the short term, and it is advisable to consider inter - period positive spreads [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore futures and spot prices declined on Tuesday. Although iron ore production has declined, steel mills are still profitable, and there are differences in the market's expectations for the decline path of iron ore production. Global iron ore shipments and arrivals have increased this week, and this trend is expected to continue in the second - quarter peak season. FMG has postponed the production of the Iron Bridge project. Iron ore port inventories are decreasing. It is advisable to take a bearish view in the short term [8]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Silicon manganese and silicon iron spot prices declined on Tuesday. The demand for ferroalloys is fair as the production of major steel products has increased slightly. The price of silicon manganese in the north and south markets is 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton. The manganese ore market is cautious. The production of silicon manganese has increased slightly, mainly in Inner Mongolia and Guilin. The price of silicon iron in the main production areas is 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton for 72 - grade and 5800 - 5950 yuan/ton for 75 - grade. The raw material price of blue charcoal is weak, and downstream procurement is sluggish. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [8]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Canadian wildfires have disrupted oil supply, offsetting the impact of OPEC+ production increases. The fire in Alberta, Canada, has shut down 350,000 barrels per day of heavy oil production, more than three - quarters of OPEC+'s recent production increase. US job vacancies also support oil prices. Geopolitical risks are rising due to the US - Iran nuclear agreement issue. Oil prices will be more volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to monitor the progress of the Iran nuclear agreement negotiation and the Russia - Ukraine conflict [7]. - **Asphalt**: As oil prices rise, asphalt prices have rebounded after a decline. Demand has recovered to a limited extent. The basis in major consumption areas has declined, and the futures structure has weakened. After the profit recovery, production has increased, and inventory depletion has stagnated. As the peak demand season approaches, it is advisable to monitor inventory depletion. Asphalt prices will fluctuate at a high level in the short term, following oil prices [7]. - **PX**: The external price of PX remains high, and the PXN spread is around 270. Short - term maintenance is relatively high, and with the support of oil prices, PX will maintain a strong and volatile trend. However, after the reduction of polyester downstream production, PTA may reduce long - term contracts, which may affect PX demand in the future. There is a slight risk of a decline in PX prices later [7]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis remains at a high level of +210, but the 9 - 1 spread has dropped by 50 points. After the restart of some devices, more devices will end maintenance in June, and supply will increase. Downstream production cuts will continue, and PTA is likely to accumulate inventory in June. It is advisable to enter the market on the right - hand side when the spread declines [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The coal - based supply of ethylene glycol will gradually recover, and inventory will decrease in the short term, but it needs to reach 500,000 tons. Downstream production cuts have a negative impact, and low imports limit supply growth. It will continue to fluctuate in the short term, waiting for a rebound [9]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber prices are in a weak and volatile pattern. Terminal orders have recovered less than expected, and short - fiber prices have weakened. Downstream production is expected to decrease in the short term, and orders from the US may slow down. Although short - fiber inventory has decreased, it is necessary to monitor the sustainability of spinning mill operations. It will continue to fluctuate in the short term [9]. - **Methanol**: The Jiangsu Maritime Bureau has restricted ships over 25 years old from berthing in the Yangtze River, which has strengthened the basis in June. On June 3, 2025, the daily loss of Chinese methanol plants due to maintenance or production cuts was 17,050 tons. Some plants have resumed production, and some have started new maintenance. Import arrivals have increased, and port and inland inventories are rising slightly. Although low inventory supports prices in the short term, with increasing supply, inventory is expected to rise faster, and prices may decline in the long term. It is advisable to monitor import arrivals and wait for the situation to become clear [10]. - **PP**: The polypropylene market is consolidating within a range. The output of PP is increasing, and new device production is being realized. Supply pressure will increase from June to July, while demand is in the off - season transition. With weak oil prices, the price center is likely to move down. It is advisable to monitor device maintenance and oil price fluctuations [11]. - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price is adjusting. The price has declined in different regions. The industrial inventory is okay, but demand is in the off - season. Supply pressure has been relieved due to previous device maintenance, but devices are expected to restart, and new devices will be put into production in June. With weak oil prices, polyethylene prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: LME copper prices rose above $9600 overnight. The market expects the US to impose a 50% tariff on copper after raising tariffs on steel and aluminum. The copper ore supply is tight, and the copper concentrate TC has continued to decline, but the decline has slowed. Copper concentrate port inventories are high, and TC may stabilize soon. Copper production is at a high level, and there is no incentive to cut production. Demand is approaching the off - season, and there is a risk of a marginal decline in demand. If production remains high and demand weakens, inventory will increase. It will fluctuate in the short term [12][13]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum prices fluctuated overnight. The US raising aluminum tariffs will increase non - US supply. Aluminum production is at a high level, and Russian aluminum imports have increased significantly. Aluminum demand has exceeded expectations from March to May, but this growth rate is unsustainable. Demand is expected to decline marginally, and the export rush will slow down the decline. Aluminum inventory is decreasing significantly, and it may fall to around 500,000 tons at the end of May. There is no major negative factor in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [13]. - **Tin**: On the supply side, the domestic tin ore supply is tight, and processing fees are low. The combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has dropped by nearly 2%. There are rumors of the resumption of production in the Wa region of Myanmar, but these rumors have not been confirmed and may change. On the demand side, the integrated circuit industry is growing rapidly, PVC production is high, but terminal electronics are weak, and the market is entering the off - season. After the price decline, downstream enterprises have replenished inventory, and inventory has decreased by 1261 tons. Tin prices have stabilized in the short term, but high - tariff risks, resumption of production expectations, and a marginal decline in demand will put pressure on prices [14]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The rise in US crude oil prices by nearly 2% has boosted CBOT soybean and corn futures. The possible meeting between US and Chinese leaders this week has restored market risk appetite. The weather in US soybean - producing areas is stable with high temperatures, and there is no continuous weather premium. CBOT soybeans are expected to trade within a range in the short term [15]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in oil mills is expected to recover, and the weak basis will be realized. There is no strong driving force for the rise of US soybeans, so soybean meal lacks a stable upward support. For rapeseed meal, the low inventory of Canadian rapeseed and potential drought risks in the new season have tightened domestic rapeseed imports, and the supply outlook is uncertain. Rapeseed meal is in the peak demand season, and port inventory may decrease. However, the downstream acceptance of high prices is limited. If the USDA report strengthens the expectation of a US soybean harvest, soybean meal premiums may decline. Rapeseed meal has relatively strong support, and the spread between soybean and rapeseed meal may narrow [15]. - **Oils and Fats**: The rebound in the crude oil market has driven up the prices of US soybean oil and oilseeds. The domestic market has risen with the expected increase in costs. BMD palm oil futures rose, supported by improved export demand. Malaysian palm oil exports increased significantly in May. After India reduced the import tariff on crude edible oil, palm oil futures rose in the Chinese market, supported by improved demand prospects [16]. - **Pigs**: After the holiday, the pressure on pig farms to sell pigs is low at the beginning of the month, and demand is in the off - season, resulting in weak supply and demand. As large - scale pig farms increase sales and the market reduces pig weights, pig prices may continue to decline. Pig prices are stable in the short term, and there is a high basis and large discount for near - term contracts. With the position limit for the 07 contract, there may be a price increase for near - term contracts [17][18]. - **Corn**: After the holiday, the concentrated listing of new wheat may replace some corn feed consumption. High inventory and warehouse receipts may put pressure on corn prices in the short term. However, after the wheat harvest, corn demand will recover, imports will decrease, and port inventory will deplete faster. As long as the expectation of a future price increase remains, corn prices will be supported in the short term and may trade within a range [18].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-6-4 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，5月官方PMI为 49.5%，较4月回升0.5，财新PMI48.3，较4月下降2.1， 为去年10月以来首次收缩。关税博弈成为近期重要影响因素，中期来看最终谈判结果仍存不确定 性。Opec+7月连续第三个月增产石油，原油价格偏弱，成本端支撑减弱。供需端，农膜淡季，中 小工厂停车多，新产能投产压力仍存。当前LL交割品现货价7120（+0），基本面整体偏空 • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差160，升贴水比例2.3%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存58.4万吨（-0），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空 ...