Group 1 - The core view is that A-shares remain a favored asset for investment, supported by valuation, fundamentals, and liquidity factors [1] - From a valuation perspective, the current equity risk premium of A-shares is considered to be within a reasonable range [1] - The fundamental outlook is improving due to the implementation of domestic policies, leading to noticeable enhancements in certain economic indicators [1] Group 2 - The liquidity environment is favorable, with ongoing economic recovery in China and a continuous influx of funds into the stock market driven by increased asset allocation needs from residents [1] - Global allocation funds still have relatively low positions in A-shares, and a weakening US dollar alongside a strengthening RMB will facilitate foreign capital inflow into A-shares [1] - The rise of new productive forces is expected to drive A-share valuations higher, indicating a good opportunity for investment in A-shares [1] Group 3 - The AI industry is identified as a clear trend, with short-term adjustments potentially providing good investment opportunities [2] - Chinese technology products are gaining global attention, which may enhance investor confidence in the application of AI technology [2] - The overall valuation of US stocks is perceived as high, particularly in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, but a potential "soft landing" for the US economy could maintain a neutral outlook on US stocks [2] Group 4 - Gold is viewed as a valuable investment, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and ongoing global central bank purchases of gold, suggesting further upside potential [2]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the A-share market and investment strategies for 2026, focusing on various asset classes and sectors. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Style and Sentiment** - In January 2026, the growth value dimension maintains a preference for value style but slightly leans towards growth style. Investor sentiment favors value style, while market momentum shows a slight advantage for growth style [3][4][5] 2. **Asset Allocation** - The outlook for domestic stock assets is relatively positive, with a neutral stance on commodities and a cautious approach towards bonds. The macroeconomic indicators suggest a cautious view on stocks and commodities, while being neutral on bonds [3][5][8] 3. **Industry Rotation Model** - The current state is characterized by rapid rotation, with December's model showing a 0.7% underperformance against the benchmark. Recommended sectors for January 2026 include banking, building materials, computers, comprehensive finance, and coal [3][5] 4. **Quantitative Strategy Performance** - The aggressive growth strategy, particularly the growth trend resonance stock selection strategy, achieved a 46.4% annual return, outperforming by 13 percentage points. The small-cap mining strategy yielded the highest returns at 86% [6][9] 5. **Market Conditions and Strategy Implications** - The current market is experiencing high differentiation, which typically benefits value and dividend strategies. January is noted for the dense disclosure of annual reports, presenting potential investment opportunities if earnings forecasts exceed expectations [9] 6. **Machine Learning and Derivative Models** - The quantitative strategy team has developed various models based on reinforcement learning and deep learning, achieving stable performance. The option timing model has a high success rate, with the sentiment indicator yielding a cumulative return of 37.47% since its launch [10] 7. **Technical Analysis and Market Signals** - Technical indicators show mixed signals, with four bearish and one bullish signal among major indices, suggesting potential resistance in the current market [8] 8. **Sector Recommendations** - The recommended sectors for January 2026 include banking, building materials, computers, comprehensive finance, and coal, with a shift away from previously favored sectors like non-ferrous metals [5] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The quantitative strategy team is actively engaging clients with subscription services for their sentiment indicators, indicating a focus on client engagement and market responsiveness [10]

- The report mentions an A-share timing model, specifically the "wave model," which turned bullish on November 14, 2025, and has maintained a high position since then. This model is used to determine optimal market entry and exit points based on market trends and signals[1][29] - Another timing model, the "short-term model," is highlighted for its bullish signal on the CSI 1000 index, while the bullish signals for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices have ended. This model focuses on short-term market movements and provides directional signals for specific indices[1][29] - The report also discusses a "Hong Kong stock timing model," which indicates a high certainty of a liquidity-driven bullish trend post-New Year. This model is used to assess market conditions and timing for Hong Kong stocks, with a focus on buy-side activity confirmation[4][29] - A "gold timing model" is mentioned, which has been adjusted to a higher position. This model evaluates the market conditions for gold investments, considering factors like the U.S. dollar index and short-term trading opportunities[5][29] - The report includes a "small-cap A-share timing model," which suggests a bullish outlook for small-cap stocks in January 2026. This model is used to analyze and predict trends in small-cap segments of the A-share market[6][29] - The "dividend growth A-share timing model" is also highlighted, which has been adjusted to favor growth stocks in January 2026. This model focuses on identifying opportunities in dividend-paying growth stocks within the A-share market[6][29]

2026 年 01 月 04 日 策略周报 研究所： 证券分析师： 赵阳 S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 陈艺鑫 S0350525010003 chenyx03@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 若人民币汇率持续升值，风格行业如何选择 ——策略周报专题 最近一年走势 相关报告 鹏》——2025-06-17 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、人民币强升值或弱升值期间，配置什 么风格或行业胜率弹性较高？2、当下应该关注哪些性价比较高的行业？ 核心要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 《投资黄金如何增强收益——策略周报*陈艺鑫， 胡国鹏》——2025-09-28 《策略周报：反内卷行情有望进入第二阶段*陈艺 鑫，袁稻雨》——2025-08-24 《投资红利如何增强收益-——红利系列报告*陈艺 鑫，胡国鹏》——2025-07-25 《基于"三步走"的黄金交易策略*陈艺鑫，胡国 《我国财政货币双宽松下，大类资产如何配置*陈 艺鑫，胡国鹏》——2025-03-09 1、根据内需经济复苏强弱，将 2015 年 811 汇改后人民币升值阶段 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the growth style represented by the technology sector led the market in 2025, while the value style was relatively suppressed. However, a rotation in market styles is a consistent cyclical pattern, and a rebound in the value style is expected in 2026 [1][8] - The China Securities 800 value/growth ratio indicates that since October 2025, the value style has begun to strengthen relative to the growth style. Historical experience suggests that the end of the year and the beginning of the new year are critical windows for market style rebalancing, with a preference for stable earnings and reasonably valued stocks [1][8] - In this context, China Europe Fund plans to officially launch the China Europe Value Select Mixed Fund on January 5, aiming to select high-quality, reasonably valued listed companies to provide a stable investment choice for the 2026 equity market [1][8] Group 2 - The fund's proposed manager, Ji Xiang, has 10 years of financial experience and over 5 years in investment management, having worked at various institutions covering industries such as food and beverage, home appliances, and agriculture. His investment framework focuses on long-term value from a bottom-up perspective [2][9] - Ji Xiang adheres to the principle of "buying good companies at cheap prices" and emphasizes deep research to select high-quality, reasonably valued companies, with a long holding period and a willingness to concentrate investments in assets likely to withstand economic cycles [2][9] - Historical performance of Ji Xiang's managed products, such as the Baoying Leading Selection A fund, shows that it outperformed the Wind ordinary stock fund index for six consecutive quarters, with five quarters achieving positive returns. In 2024, this fund ranked in the top three among similar products [3][10] Group 3 - The upcoming China Europe Value Select Mixed Fund will continue to utilize Ji Xiang's proven investment methodology. The long-term performance of a fund relies not only on the manager's research capabilities but also on strong platform support [4][11] - China Europe Fund has a deep accumulation in active equity investment, with a stable research and investment team consisting of 29 active equity fund managers with an average experience of nearly 14 years, and 49 research and support personnel with over 5 years of financial experience [4][11] - This strong support is increasingly important in a market that has moved away from significant undervaluation and is gradually becoming differentiated [4][11]

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of diversifying investments across both RMB and foreign currency assets, as well as between equity and bond assets, highlighting the role of US dollar bonds in this strategy [2] - A free course is offered to provide systematic knowledge on investing in US dollar bond funds, including course notes and mind maps for efficient learning [2] Group 2 - The performance of dividend index funds in 2025 shows that the CSI Dividend Index Fund in A-shares has increased by approximately 2%, while the Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility Index Fund in Hong Kong has risen by about 20% [5] - The Hang Seng and Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen dividend low volatility index funds have shown a consistent upward trend, with the latter increasing by around 12% [5] - Dividend index funds typically exhibit lower volatility, with fluctuations around 60%-70% of the broader market [6] Group 3 - The article notes that during bull markets, dividend index funds have limited elasticity and tend to rise uniformly, contrasting with growth styles that can experience significant volatility [7] - Historical performance from 2019 to 2025 shows that the Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen dividend low volatility index fund had annual returns of 3.25%, -4.66%, 14.39%, 1.65%, 7.71%, 27.18%, and 12% [8] - The article emphasizes that dividend index funds are less prone to dramatic price swings, and their returns are best realized through undervalued purchases and long-term holding strategies [8]

Core Insights - The report highlights a clear differentiation in the performance of growth and value indices, with growth indices showing superior profitability and elasticity, while value indices emphasize defensive characteristics and dividends [1][3][23]. Group 1: Major Large and Mid-Cap Indices - The major indices analyzed include the CSI 300 Growth Index, CSI 300 Value Index, CSI 500 Growth Index, and CSI 500 Value Index, all of which are designed to capture excess returns or enhance specific style returns [3][4]. - Growth indices are characterized by lower allocation to financials and higher allocation to technology, consumer, and manufacturing sectors, while value indices are the opposite, focusing more on financials and cyclical sectors [6][10]. - The CSI 300 Growth Index has a significant concentration of large-cap stocks, with the top ten stocks accounting for 67.1% of the index weight, indicating a strong leader effect [10][11]. Group 2: Fundamental Performance of Indices - Growth indices exhibit higher PE and PB ratios compared to value indices, reflecting market expectations for future growth, with the CSI 300 Growth Index showing a cumulative increase of over 100% [1][23]. - The annualized returns since the inception of the indices show that the CSI 500 Growth Index leads with a cumulative increase of over 150%, while the CSI 300 Value Index has a more modest increase of approximately 30% [25][39]. - Dividend yields are significantly higher in value indices, with the CSI 300 Value Index maintaining a dividend rate of 3.5%-4.5%, while growth indices show lower dividend willingness [39][41]. Group 3: Market Capitalization Distribution - The CSI 300 indices are primarily composed of large-cap stocks, with over 80% of the CSI 300 Growth Index constituents having a market capitalization exceeding 100 billion [17][20]. - The CSI 500 indices focus on mid-cap stocks, with a significant portion of constituents falling within the 10 billion to 50 billion range, highlighting the distinct characteristics of mid-cap indices [17][20]. Group 4: Shareholder Attributes - Growth indices are predominantly composed of private enterprises, while value indices are mainly represented by state-owned enterprises, indicating a divergence in shareholder characteristics [11][53].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the dividend style may see a resurgence, particularly in the second half of the year, while growth style is expected to dominate in the first half of 2026 [1] - Short-term, insurance funds are likely to benefit from the "opening red" effect, leading to significant net inflows in January, which may support dividend assets [1] - The Red Chip ETF (510720) tracks the National Dividend Index (000151), focusing on high-dividend and stable dividend-paying companies across sectors like banking, coal, and transportation [1] Group 2 - The dividend style is anticipated to regain strength in the second half of the year as growth sectors face pressure, with a potential delay in the positive PPI turning point affecting bond yields [1] - The Red Chip ETF has consistently distributed dividends for 20 consecutive months, reflecting its commitment to high dividend-paying companies [1]

2025 年 12 月 30 日 中欧基金吉翔：专注发掘具有长期 竞争优势个股的价值型基金经理 ——基金经理研究系列报告之九十 相关研究 证券分析师 白皓天 A0230525070001 baiht@swsresearch.com 蒋辛 A0230521080002 jiangxin@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 白皓天 A0230525070001 baiht@swsresearch.com 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 其 他 权 益 类 产 品 - ⚫ 价值风格的配置价值：长期投资性价比更高，日历效应提示当下配置价值：价值是一类 持有体验度较好的风格策略：（1）从长期配置维度下相对占优；（2）大多数时间下夏 普比明显更高；（3）最大回撤明显更低、创新高能力更强。日历效应反映近期价值风格 的配置价值：观察近 10 年时间中价值风格在 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market in December 2025 ended with a structural differentiation, characterized by a growth style leading the market, with the Wind All A Index rising by 3.34% [1] - The ChiNext Index surged by 5.57%, indicating a strong preference for small and medium-sized growth stocks, while the Shanghai Composite Index only saw a modest increase of 1.97% [1] - The cyclical style index rose by 5.21%, and the growth style index increased by 4.97%, significantly outperforming the consumer style index, which fell by 1.44% [1] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector was notably strong, driven by intensive industrial policies, with the aerospace and defense sector rising by 15.87% and the communication equipment sector increasing by 16.51% [2] - The insurance sector also performed well, rising by 16.98% due to year-end institutional allocation demand and expectations of long-term investment policies [2] - Conversely, sectors such as interactive media and services, as well as the media sector, experienced declines due to previous overheating or lack of catalysts [2] Driving Factors - The primary driver of the market's performance was the influx of incremental capital, with net subscriptions to broad-based ETFs exceeding 110 billion yuan, particularly in the A500 ETF [4] - Strong domestic industrial policies, such as the National Space Administration's action plan for commercial aerospace, played a crucial role in stimulating related sectors [4] - Global liquidity expectations shifted with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December, alongside the appreciation of the yuan, creating a favorable external environment [4] Market Expectations - Looking ahead to January 2026, the cross-year market trend is expected to continue, but with a focus on structure and rhythm [6] - Major broad-based indices may experience a "volatile consolidation and structural differentiation" pattern, with support from institutional fund layouts for the spring rally [6] - Opportunities in sectors are anticipated to revolve around dual drivers of policy and industry, with ongoing stories in the non-ferrous metals sector and a focus on commercial aerospace themes due to policy developments [6] Investment Strategy - A flexible and structured approach is recommended for upcoming market conditions, with a "core + satellite" investment strategy suggested [7] - Core positions should focus on high-growth sectors with clear industry trends, such as energy storage and precious metals, while flexible positions can target policy-sensitive themes like commercial aerospace [7] - Overall positions should be controlled to avoid chasing high prices, especially in light of potential market volatility from upcoming economic data releases and policy announcements [7]