1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to continue weak and volatile. The IEA predicts a large supply surplus in the world oil market next year, with supply growth significantly outpacing demand growth, putting strong pressure on oil prices. Currently, the market faces pressure from both supply and demand sides, and the peak demand season is fading with no highlights in the downstream [1]. - Fuel oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is sufficient, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively strong, but Trump's new round of tariff hikes is pressuring oil prices [2]. - Asphalt prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term, with a smaller decline than crude oil and fuel oil. There is still some construction rush expectation after the festival, but the significant increase in previous production may suppress prices [2]. - Polyester chain prices are expected to be volatile and weak, following the movement of crude oil prices. The supply of TA and EG is in a loose pattern, and the weak sales of polyester products are observed. Pay attention to potential sudden plant overhauls under low processing fees [2]. - Rubber prices are expected to be volatile and weak. The end of the typhoon season leads to normal rubber tapping in major production areas, while the high inventory of tire finished products and tariff - disturbed demand result in a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand [4]. - Methanol prices are expected to be volatile. The domestic supply has recovered, and the Iranian Busher plant has resumed production, but future production growth is limited due to winter gas restrictions. Consider long - methanol and short - polyolefin strategies and inter - month positive spread strategies [4]. - Polyolefin prices are expected to be weak. The short - term production will remain at a high level, and although there is still support from downstream orders in October, the marginal increase will gradually decline [6]. - PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak. The supply remains at a high level, domestic demand is slowing down, and exports are expected to be weak due to anti - dumping policies and trade frictions. The total inventory pressure is large [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI November contract closed down $0.79 to $58.70 per barrel, a 1.33% decline; Brent December contract closed down $0.93 to $62.39 per barrel, a 1.47% decline; SC2511 closed at 444.0 yuan per barrel, down 7.8 yuan per barrel, a 1.73% decline. The IEA predicts a supply surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day in the world oil market next year, while OPEC +'s monthly report is less pessimistic [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main contract of fuel oil FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.1% at 2700 yuan per ton; the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil LU2512 closed down 1.14% at 3203 yuan per ton. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is sufficient, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively strong [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main contract of asphalt BU2511 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.6% at 3290 yuan per ton. There is a construction rush expectation after the festival, but previous production increases may suppress prices [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4440 yuan per ton on Tuesday, down 1.55%; EG2601 closed at 4061 yuan per ton, down 1.22%. The polyester chain prices are weak and volatile, and the polyester operating rate is 91% [2]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main contract of natural rubber RU2601 closed down 95 yuan per ton to 14845 yuan per ton; NR main contract closed down 50 yuan per ton to 11990 yuan per ton. In September, China's automobile production and sales increased significantly, but the supply - demand situation of rubber is unfavorable [4]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2285 yuan per ton. The domestic supply has recovered, and the Iranian Busher plant has resumed production, but future production growth is limited [4]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6550 - 6700 yuan per ton. The short - term production will remain high, and downstream demand growth is weakening [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, the market prices of PVC in East, North, and South China continued to decline. The supply remains high, domestic demand is slowing down, and exports are expected to be weak [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on October 15, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc., covering spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The IEA predicts a large supply surplus in the world oil market next year, while OPEC +'s view is less pessimistic. Oil industry executives expect the global oil market to tighten in the medium - to - long - term [10]. - A preliminary survey shows that US crude oil inventories are estimated to have increased last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories may have declined. The release of inventory reports by API and EIA has been postponed [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [12] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as the basis of crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [28] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various products, like the spread between fuel oil contracts 01 - 05 and 09 - 01 [43] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread charts of different varieties, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, etc. [64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of some products, such as the cash flow of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profit of PP [71]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Bullish [1] - Methanol: Bearish [1] - Pure Benzene: Bullish [1] - Styrene: Bearish [1] - Polypropylene: Bearish [1] - Plastic: Bullish [1] - PVC: Bearish [1] - Caustic Soda: Bullish [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA: Bearish [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Bearish [1] - Short Fiber: Bearish [1] - Glass: Bullish [1] - Soda Ash: Bearish [1] - Bottle Chip: Bullish [1] - Propylene: Bearish [1] Core Views - The overall chemical market is affected by multiple factors such as oil prices, trade frictions, and supply - demand relationships, with different product trends varying [2][3][5] - Some products are facing supply pressure, while others are influenced by demand changes and cost fluctuations Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures prices decline due to lower oil prices and weak demand [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures prices are under pressure, with supply increase expectations and inventory digestion pressure [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene is affected by oil prices and trade frictions, with a complex market situation [3] - Styrene futures prices continue to decline, with supply increments exceeding demand improvements [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices are weak but the impact of trade frictions is weakening, and long - term supply - demand is under pressure [5] - Ethylene glycol's downward space depends on the energy market, and there are trading suggestions for spreads [5] - Short fiber prices decline slightly, and bottle chip may face weakening demand [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices rise due to potential import reduction, and the market may be strong in the short term [6] - Urea supply is high, and the demand is weak, with a likely weak market [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC may have a weak and oscillating trend due to trade frictions and supply pressure [7] - Caustic soda may oscillate strongly with supply pressure relief and potential downstream demand [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices oscillate, with an oversupply situation in the long term [8] - Glass prices are weak, with high inventory and cautious operation suggestions [8]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic fuel prices have been reduced due to a decline in international oil prices, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 75 yuan and 70 yuan per ton respectively, effective from October 13, 2025 [2][3] Price Adjustment Details - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a reduction in gasoline and diesel prices based on the average price of crude oil over the previous ten working days, leading to a decrease of 0.06 yuan per liter for various gasoline grades and diesel [3][4] - This marks the 20th price adjustment in 2025, with a total of eight reductions, resulting in an overall downward trend in fuel prices for the year [3][4] Impact on Consumers - The price reduction will lower fuel costs for private car owners, with an estimated decrease of about 3 yuan for a full tank in a small car [2][4] - For logistics vehicles, the cost per 100 kilometers will decrease by approximately 2.4 yuan for heavy trucks, while private cars will see a reduction of about 0.4 yuan per 100 kilometers [4] International Oil Price Trends - International oil prices have shown a downward trend due to various factors, including increased production expectations from OPEC and concerns over supply surplus amid geopolitical tensions [5][6] - Recent announcements regarding a ceasefire in the Middle East have further reduced geopolitical risk premiums, contributing to the decline in oil prices [6] Future Price Expectations - Analysts predict a high likelihood of further reductions in domestic fuel prices in the upcoming adjustment cycle, with expectations of a decrease of around 300 yuan per ton based on negative price changes [8][9] - The next price adjustment window is anticipated to open on October 27, 2025, with a prevailing bearish sentiment regarding future oil price movements [9]

Core Insights - In September 2025, the average price of Brent crude oil futures was $67.6 per barrel, a month-on-month increase of $0.3 per barrel, while the WTI crude oil futures averaged $63.6 per barrel, a decrease of $0.4 per barrel [2][3] - Geopolitical tensions, including the U.S. attack on Venezuelan vessels and ongoing conflicts involving Israel and Russia, have contributed to fluctuations in oil prices, alongside OPEC+'s decision to extend production increases [2][3] Oil Price Review - Brent crude oil futures closed at $67.0 per barrel at the end of September, while WTI crude oil futures closed at $72.4 per barrel [2] - The U.S. significantly increased its crude oil exports, leading to a reduction in inventory levels, despite seasonal refinery maintenance impacting demand [2][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - OPEC+ announced an extension of production increases for October and November, with a collective reduction target extended until the end of 2026 [3] - Major energy agencies project an increase in global oil demand, with estimates for 2025 ranging from 74,000 to 130,000 barrels per day [3] Industry Policy Developments - A joint announcement from seven ministries in China outlined a plan to stabilize growth in the petrochemical industry, emphasizing strict controls on new refining capacity [4][5] - The plan aims to optimize supply-side conditions in the refining and chemical sectors, amidst global uncertainties [5] Price Forecasts - The expected price range for Brent crude oil in 2025 is between $65 and $75 per barrel, while WTI crude oil is projected to be between $60 and $70 per barrel [5] Recommended Stocks - Key investment recommendations include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum, Satellite Chemical, and CNOOC Development [6]

Core Insights - The recent adjustment in fuel prices has led to a slight decrease across various regions, with significant price differences observed between high and low price areas [1][2][4][7] Price Overview - The current price of 98-octane gasoline varies significantly across regions, with Beijing at 9.07 CNY per liter, while Gansu has the lowest at 8.16 CNY per liter [1][4] - The highest price is recorded in Hainan at 9.88 CNY per liter, showcasing a difference of 1.72 CNY between the highest and lowest prices [2][4] Price Decrease Analysis - The overall trend indicates a minor decrease in fuel prices, with most regions experiencing a drop of approximately 0.2 to 0.3 CNY per liter [4][7] - Long-term savings can be realized, especially for frequent drivers, as the cumulative effect of these price changes can lead to significant cost reductions over time [4][6] Regional Price Comparison - Fuel prices can be categorized into high-price and low-price regions, with southern islands generally facing higher costs due to transportation and local taxes [4][6] - The price disparity is particularly relevant for long-distance drivers who can plan their routes to take advantage of lower prices [2][4] Practical Recommendations - To manage fuel price fluctuations, it is advised to avoid panic buying and to utilize fuel-saving techniques while driving [6][7] - Drivers can also benefit from using fuel price comparison apps and loyalty programs to find cheaper options [6][7] Conclusion - The recent fuel price decrease is a minor benefit for regular drivers, particularly for weekend travelers, but the long-term outlook remains influenced by international market conditions [6][7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - OPEC+ will increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in November, which is a relatively moderate increase. The petrochemical sector continues to adjust, with ongoing attention to the progress of eliminating outdated facilities and upgrading [2][5] - The oil and petrochemical index underperformed this week, declining by 0.38% compared to last week. In contrast, the engineering services sector within the oil and petrochemical industry performed the best, with an increase of 0.88% [5] - Oil prices have decreased, with an increase in U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories [6][10] - In the polyester segment, the price of polyester filament has dropped while the price spread has increased. The inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have decreased, and the operating rate of weaving machines has increased [14][19] - For olefins, the spot prices of sample polyolefins remain stable, and inventory levels are steady [21][22] Summary by Sections Oil Market - Oil prices have fallen, with Brent crude futures closing at $65.5 per barrel, a decrease of 7.2% compared to September 26 [7] - U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 6,440 thousand barrels, while gasoline inventories rose by 496 thousand barrels [13] Polyester - The prices for polyester filament (POY, DTY, FDY) are 6,550, 7,750, and 6,700 yuan per ton, respectively, with price spreads increasing by 61 yuan per ton compared to September 26 [16] - The inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are 25.7, 29.5, and 18.8 days for FDY, DTY, and POY, respectively, with an increase in the operating rate of weaving machines [19] Olefins - Sample prices for polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) are 7,800 and 8,050 yuan per ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.64% for PE and no change for PP compared to September 26 [24] - The total inventory of polyolefins is 590,000 tons, which is a decrease from the previous period [24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Near - term oil prices are subject to many disturbances. Geopolitical tensions push up prices, but supply - side pressure remains significant. OPEC+ may increase production. Short - term Brent crude is expected to trade in the range of $67.8 - 70 per barrel [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: Cost support is strong, but demand is weak in the short term due to the approaching holiday and rainy weather. Supply remains high. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and crack spreads are expected to be bearish in the medium term [3][4][5]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil prices are suppressed by high inventories, and low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing while demand lacks a clear driver [5][6][7]. - **PX & PTA**: PX is in a tight balance with a reduced de - stocking rate. PTA's supply - demand contradiction is alleviated, and inventory accumulation pressure is not large. Prices are mainly affected by the macro - environment and cost [7][9][10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weaker than last year. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation [11][12]. - **Short Fiber**: Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to rising raw material prices, but processing fees are expected to remain low [13][15]. - **PR (Bottle Chip)**: Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to rising raw material prices. Processing fees are expected to fluctuate at a low level as demand transitions from peak to off - peak [15][16]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: In the short term, prices may fluctuate strongly due to geopolitical risks and macro - sentiment. In the long term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, and prices are expected to decline [18][19][20]. - **Propylene**: Supply is increasing, and the market is overall loose. Downstream product profits are poor. It is recommended to short on rebounds [20][21][22]. - **Plastic PP**: Supply is expected to face new capacity releases, and demand in October is expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see during the holiday and short on rebounds in the medium term [22][23][24]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is currently in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. Short - term trading focuses on weak reality, but the medium - term supply - demand outlook is positive [24][25][26]. - **PVC**: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions lightly during the holiday [26][27][28]. - **Soda Ash**: Before the holiday, prices are expected to remain stable. After the holiday, the market may be weak. It is recommended to hold light or no positions during the holiday [30][31][32]. - **Glass**: Before the holiday, prices are expected to fluctuate. Demand is relatively weak, and the sustainability of the upward trend needs attention [33][34][35]. - **Log**: Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [35][36][38]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Supply is expected to increase slightly, demand is weak, and cost support is limited. It is recommended to short the 01 contract [39][40]. - **Pulp**: Short - term supply and demand are both weak, but the market is stabilizing. It is recommended to buy on dips [40][41][42]. - **Natural Rubber & No. 20 Rubber**: It is recommended to short the RU 01 contract and wait and see for the NR 11 contract [43][44][45]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The BR 11 contract should be observed after hitting the stop - loss. Hold the spread position of BR2511 - RU2501 [47][48]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2511 rose $0.74 to $65.72 per barrel (+1.14%); Brent2511 rose $0.71 to $70.13 per barrel (+1.02%); SC2511 rose to 495 yuan per barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: Iraq's northern oil pipeline resumes operation; OPEC+ may increase production by at least 137,000 barrels per day; the US asks India to reduce Russian oil purchases [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: expect wide - range fluctuations, with the intraday range of the Brent main contract at $67.8 - 70 per barrel; arbitrage: gasoline and diesel cracks are weak; options: wait and see [2][3]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2511 closed at 3463 points at night (+0.35%); BU2512 closed at 3425 points at night (+0.50%). Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [3]. - **Related News**: Demand in different regions is different, and crude oil price increases support asphalt prices, but some refineries are still accumulating inventory [3][4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: expect range - bound fluctuations; arbitrage: the asphalt - crude oil spread is expected to weaken; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [4][5]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU01 closed at 2972 (+1.99%); LU11 closed at 3525 (+1.59%). Singapore paper - cargo spreads changed [5]. - **Related News**: Nigerian refinery lays off workers; Russian refinery is attacked [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: the FU main contract is expected to be strongly volatile, and the LU near - month contract will fluctuate with crude oil; arbitrage: consider widening the LU01 - FU01 spread; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 [6][7]. PX & PTA - **Market Review**: PX2511 closed at 6690 at night (+0.51%); TA601 closed at 4670 at night (+0.52%). PX spot prices fell, and PTA spot trading was weak [7]. - **Related News**: PX and PTA operating rates increased, and polyester operating rates decreased [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [10][11]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2601 closed at 4238 at night (+0.59%). Spot and futures basis are given [11]. - **Related News**: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol decreased, and downstream sales were poor [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: expect weak fluctuations; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options [12][13]. Short Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2511 closed at 6350 at night (+0.38%). Spot prices in different regions are stable [13]. - **Related News**: Downstream sales were poor [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [15]. PR (Bottle Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2511 closed at 5820 at night (+0.31%). Spot trading was light [15]. - **Related News**: The bottle - chip operating rate decreased, and polyester operating rates decreased slightly [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [16][18]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 closed at 5921 at night (+0.30%); EB2511 closed at 6969 at night (+0.29%). Spot prices in different regions are given [18]. - **Related News**: The operating rates of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream industries changed [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies; arbitrage: long pure benzene and short styrene; options: wait and see [19][20]. Propylene - **Market Review**: PL2601 closed at 6396 at night (+0.49%). Spot prices in different regions are given [20][21]. - **Related News**: The propylene operating rate increased [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short on rebounds; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell put options [22]. Plastic PP - **Market Review**: Spot prices of LLDPE and PP in different regions showed different trends [22][23]. - **Related News**: PE and PP maintenance ratios changed [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: wait and see during the holiday, and short on rebounds in the medium term; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [23][24]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: Spot prices of caustic soda in different regions changed [24]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine decreased [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term focus on weak reality, medium - term focus on long opportunities; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [25][26]. PVC - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices fluctuated slightly, and trading was light [27]. - **Related News**: The price of calcium carbide decreased [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: hold short positions lightly during the holiday; arbitrage: conduct 1 - 5 and 3 - 5 month - spread reverse arbitrage; options: wait and see [27][28][30]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The futures price of soda ash changed, and spot prices in different regions are given [30]. - **Related News**: Soda ash production reached a historical high, and inventory decreased [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: prices are expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday. Hold light or no positions during the holiday; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [31][32][33]. Glass - **Market Review**: The futures price of glass changed, and spot prices in different regions are given [33]. - **Related News**: Glass production increased, inventory decreased, and profits improved slightly [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: prices are expected to fluctuate before the holiday. Pay attention to demand and the sustainability of the upward trend; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [34][35]. Log - **Market Review**: Spot prices of logs in different regions are stable, and the 11 - month contract fluctuated slightly [35]. - **Related News**: The number of incoming log ships increased, and inventory decreased [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short the LG2511 contract on rallies; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell LG2511 - C - 820 [38][39]. Offset Printing Paper - **Market Review**: Spot prices of offset printing paper are stable, and raw material prices changed slightly [39]. - **Related News**: Production and inventory of offset printing paper increased [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short the 01 contract; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell OP2601 - C - 4500 [40]. Pulp - **Market Review**: The futures price of pulp decreased, and spot prices of different pulp types changed [40][41]. - **Related News**: A new pulp project was put into operation [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: buy on dips; arbitrage: wait and see and pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse spread; options: wait and see [42][43]. Natural Rubber & No. 20 Rubber - **Market Review**: Futures prices of natural rubber and No. 20 rubber decreased, and spot prices in different regions are given [43][44]. - **Related News**: The US - EU trade agreement imposes tariffs on EU auto products [45]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short the RU 01 contract and wait and see for the NR 11 contract; arbitrage: conduct the spread trade of BR2511 - RU2601; options: wait and see [45][46]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: The futures price of butadiene rubber decreased, and spot prices in different regions are given [47]. - **Related News**: The US - EU trade agreement imposes tariffs on EU auto products [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: observe after hitting the stop - loss; arbitrage: hold the spread position of BR2511 - RU2501; options: wait and see [48][49].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - L2601 oscillated weakly and closed at 7,130 yuan/ton. Affected by the restart of devices such as Zhonghua Quanzhou and Zhongying Petrochemical, last week's PE production and capacity utilization increased month - on - month. Downstream demand seasonally recovered, driving the downstream start - up rate of PE to rise month - on - month. Last week, the production enterprise inventory increased slightly, the social inventory decreased, and the total inventory pressure was not large. This week, only a new 350,000 - ton high - density device of Baolai was added, and devices such as Yulong, Guoneng Xinjiang, and Jinhai Chemical restarted. PE production and capacity utilization are expected to rise month - on - month. ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton low - density device is expected to be put into production within the month, increasing the industry's supply pressure in the medium and long term. The greenhouse film has entered the peak season, and agricultural film orders have continued to pick up; packaging film orders still have room for growth. With the upcoming long holiday, downstream stocking demand is released. In terms of cost, the impact of OPEC+ production increase continues, and the medium - and long - term supply - exceeding - demand expectation of global crude oil puts some pressure on oil prices, but there is still uncertainty in the short - term geopolitical situation. The supply - demand game of LLDPE is expected to operate in the daily range of around 7,100 - 7,200 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) was 7,130, down 39; 1 - month contract closing price: polyethylene was 7,130, down 39; 5 - month contract closing price: polyethylene was 7,187, down 36; 9 - month contract closing price: polyethylene was 7,229, down 21. The trading volume (daily, lots) was 210,963, an increase of 9,252; the open interest (daily, lots) was 580,839, an increase of 24,526. The 9 - 1 spread was 81, down 11. The long position volume of the top 20 futures holders of polyethylene (daily, lots) was 422,702, an increase of 18,531; the short position volume was 478,391, an increase of 16,583; the net long position volume was - 55,689, an increase of 1,948 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China (daily, yuan/ton) was 7,193.48, down 19.57; the average price in East China (daily, yuan/ton) was 7,318.81, down 8.1. The basis was 63.48, an increase of 19.44 [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The FOB middle price of naphtha in the Singapore region (daily, US dollars/barrel) was 64.51, down 0.29; the CFR middle price of naphtha in the Japanese region (daily, US dollars/ton) was 596.75, down 2.63. The CFR middle price of ethylene in Southeast Asia (daily, US dollars/ton) was 841, unchanged; the CFR middle price of ethylene in Northeast Asia (daily, US dollars/ton) was 846, down 5 [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate (daily, %) was 80.36, an increase of 2.32 [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film (weekly, %) was 51.78, an increase of 0.48; the operating rate of PE pipes (weekly, %) was 31.83, an increase of 0.16; the operating rate of PE agricultural film (weekly, %) was 26.75, an increase of 2.63 [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene (daily, %) was 4.93, down 1.1; the 40 - day historical volatility (daily, %) was 6.04, down 0.91. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options of polyethylene (daily, %) was 10.21, an increase of 0.16; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily, %) was 10.2, an increase of 0.15 [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From September 12th to 18th, China's PE weekly production increased by 2.97% month - on - month to 631,000 tons, and the weekly capacity utilization rate increased by 2.23% month - on - month to 80.36%. From September 12th to 18th, the average operating rate of PE downstream products increased by 0.8% month - on - month, among which the operating rate of agricultural film increased by 2.6% month - on - month. As of September 17th, the inventory of PE production enterprises was 490,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.68%; as of September 15th, the social inventory of PE was 546,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.44%. As of September 19th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased by 1.24% week - on - week to 7,550 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit decreased by 93 yuan/ton week - on - week to - 300 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased by 0.52% week - on - week to 6,308 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit decreased by 37 yuan/ton week - on - week to 893 yuan/ton [3].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil price adjustment is likely to be suspended due to the current low level of the reference crude oil price change rate, despite international crude oil prices showing a strong fluctuation trend [1][2]. Group 1: International Crude Oil Price Trends - During the current pricing cycle (from September 9, 2025, to September 23, 2025), international crude oil prices have shown a strong fluctuation, leading to a change in the domestic reference crude oil price change rate from negative to positive, but still at a low level [1]. - The average price level of international crude oil has slightly increased, influenced by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, despite expectations of oversupply due to OPEC+ decisions to increase production and rising U.S. oil inventories [1][2]. Group 2: Domestic Refined Oil Price Adjustment - As of September 19, 2025, the domestic reference crude oil change rate is at 0.59%, which translates to an expected increase of 25 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, but this does not reach the retail price adjustment threshold of 50 yuan per ton [1]. - The probability of a price adjustment being suspended is high, marking the sixth suspension of refined oil price adjustments since the beginning of 2025 [2].

Oil Market Overview - Brent and WTI crude oil futures averaged $67.6 and $63.6 per barrel this week, respectively, both up by $0.9 per barrel compared to last week [1] - Total U.S. crude oil inventory stands at 82 million barrels, with commercial inventory at 42 million barrels, strategic inventory at 41 million barrels, and Cushing inventory at 2 million barrels, showing a week-on-week change of -878, -929, +50, and -30 thousand barrels respectively [1] - U.S. crude oil production is at 13.48 million barrels per day, down by 10 thousand barrels per day from the previous week [1] - Active U.S. oil rigs increased by 2 to 418, while active fracturing fleets rose by 5 to 169 [1] U.S. Crude Oil Demand and Supply - U.S. refinery crude processing volume is 16.42 million barrels per day, down by 390 thousand barrels per day week-on-week, with a refinery utilization rate of 93.3%, down by 1.6 percentage points [1] - U.S. crude oil imports, exports, and net imports are 569, 528, and 42 thousand barrels per day, respectively, reflecting a week-on-week change of -58, +253, and -311 thousand barrels per day [2] U.S. Refined Products - Average prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are $85, $98, and $89 per barrel, with week-on-week changes of +$1.5, +$1.1, and -$5.1 per barrel respectively [3] - U.S. gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel inventories are 22 million, 12 million, and 4 million barrels, showing week-on-week changes of -235, +405, and +63 thousand barrels [4] - Production of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel is 941, 496, and 190 thousand barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of -18, -27, and +1 thousand barrels per day [5] - Consumption of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel is 881, 362, and 162 thousand barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of +30, +24, and -13 thousand barrels per day [5] U.S. Refined Products Trade - U.S. gasoline imports, exports, and net exports are 16, 97, and 81 thousand barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of +7, -2, and -9 thousand barrels per day [5] - U.S. diesel imports, exports, and net exports are 10, 85, and 76 thousand barrels per day, reflecting week-on-week changes of -12, -54, and -42 thousand barrels per day [5] - U.S. jet fuel imports, exports, and net exports are 5, 24, and 18 thousand barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of -7, +5, and +12 thousand barrels per day [5] Related Companies - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC Services, Offshore Oil Engineering, and CNOOC Development [6] - Companies to watch include Sinopec Oilfield Services, China Oil Engineering, and Petrochemical Machinery [6]