作者 | 独行侠 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 随着以伊地缘冲突的爆发，国际油价也跟着发生了巨大波动。 6月13日，国际油价一度大涨14%，最终收涨近8%。这已经在前两日大涨近6%基础上进行的，彼时美国宣布从中东撤回人员，点燃了市场对 中东地缘政治冲突的担忧。 受油价影响，周五港 A油气板块大幅上涨，其中，山东墨龙飙升75%，中石化油服大涨25%。"三桶油"表现不俗，中国海油上涨2%，较4月 初累升24%。 目前，涨价题材颇受资本市场追捧。接下来，油气板块是否还有更好表现？ 01 在 6月15日美伊正准备新一轮谈判之前，以色列以意想不到的方式对伊朗实施了军事打击，包括袭击伊朗重要核设施、精准斩首伊朗革命卫队 高管及核技术专家。 打击之后，全球金融市场一直在等伊朗方面的报复回应。 但从媒体报道细节看，以色列与伊朗之间的冲突仍处于不可控状态。 一来，伊朗在军队高层被大面积斩首后，依然发动了反击，且无人机直奔以色列核设施，不像之前两次发射数百发导弹都没对准核设施。 二来，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡先先 "跑路"到了希腊躲避袭击，并关闭了全球所有使馆。从这个维度看，以色列方面都不太认为伊朗 ...

中东局势搅动全球能源市场。 据最新消息，当地时间6月14日，伊朗南部布什尔省两家炼油厂遭到以色列空袭，部分设施爆炸起火。这是以色列首 次袭击伊朗能源基础设施。 有分析称，此次袭击可能会进一步削弱伊朗摇摇欲坠的能源行业。中东紧张局势升级有可能会进一步引发全球原油 价格剧烈波动，美国原油价格周五一度飙涨14%。 交易市场也显示出交易员对油价飙升的担忧。大量"价外看涨期权"被交易，意味着许多人在对冲油价进一步上涨的 风险。其中成交量较大的期权是，如果油价在6月25日之前涨到85美元/桶以上就会获利的合约。WTI原油的看涨期权 与看跌期权之间的价格比值升至2022年3月以来最高，当时俄乌冲突爆发。 另外，美国与欧洲的巨大分歧也引发市场关注。据美媒报道，知情人士透露，美国拒绝欧洲降低俄罗斯石油价格上 限提议。分析指出，对投资者而言，这种政策分歧和市场波动的组合正在创造一个更加难以预测的能源市场环境。 以色列首次袭击伊朗能源基础设施 6月15日，据新华社消息，伊朗迈赫尔通讯社15日凌晨援引伊朗石油部发表的声明报道，位于德黑兰以北的沙赫兰储 油库和位于该市以南的燃料储存罐14日晚遭以色列袭击。由于两处储油设施内油量不多，火 ...

华泰证券：伊以冲突扩大 油价进入高波动阶段 金十数据6月15日讯，华泰证券研报称，中东地缘紧张局势加剧，相关地区原油供应下降潜在风险显 现，叠加4—5月OPEC+实际供应增量低于目标上调幅度，以及北半球传统需求旺季将至，油价大幅反 弹。6月13日WTI、布伦特原油期货价格分别收于72.98、74.23美元/桶，较月初上涨16.7%、14.9%。华 泰证券认为伊朗原油产量及出口短期或将下滑，油价将进入高波动阶段，霍尔木兹海峡关乎沙特等中东 产油国的共同核心利益，运输受阻风险有待进一步评估。全球石油需求增量持续受电、气冲击，供给端 产油国协同趋弱及新兴供应力量崛起，预计2025—2027年油价中枢仍将下行，基于边际成本及供给 方"利重于量"诉求的新一轮再平衡，油价中枢仍将高于60美元/桶。 布伦特原油 ...

Report Overview - There is no overall investment rating for the industry provided in the report [1] - The core view of the report is that due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, international oil prices have risen significantly, affecting the prices of various chemical products. Each chemical product has its own supply - demand fundamentals, and price trends vary. It is necessary to pay attention to factors such as oil prices, production and shipment rhythms, and downstream demand [2][3][4] Each Chemical Product Summary Methanol - Middle - East geopolitical conflicts led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, increasing shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz. The market expects future coastal imports to be far lower than expected, causing the methanol futures to hit the daily limit. Fundamentally, the arrival volume of imported methanol is high, the operating rate of coastal olefin plants has declined slightly, and port inventories have increased significantly. Domestic supply remains sufficient, and producer inventories have increased slightly. The volatility of methanol prices is expected to increase [2] Urea - The urea futures stopped falling, and the spot market improved. Agricultural purchases are scattered, and the production of high - nitrogen fertilizers for compound fertilizers in summer is ending. Demand support is insufficient, and producer inventories have increased significantly. Although exports are gradually opening up, the inspection process is slow, and some goods are locked, with port inventories remaining flat. Supply remains sufficient, and short - term downstream industrial and agricultural demand is weak. The price is weak in the short term but may stabilize and rebound as rainfall increases in major regions [3] Polyolefins - The main futures contracts of polyolefins rose significantly. The military conflict between Israel and Iran escalated the Middle - East geopolitical situation, increasing concerns about oil supply and causing a sharp rise in international oil prices, which directly drove up the prices of downstream products in the industrial chain. It is recommended to pay attention to the release of macro - risks in the future [4] Styrene - The main futures contract of styrene rose significantly. The sharp rise in international oil prices due to Middle - East geopolitical risks strengthened the cost support for styrene. Fundamentally, supply is expected to increase as multiple plants restart, and the operating rates of downstream "3S" plants are also expected to increase [5] Polyester - Geopolitical conflicts led to a sharp rise in oil prices, causing PX and PTA to rise in the morning but then partially giving back gains. The weekly loads of PX and PTA increased, while the operating rates of terminal weaving and dyeing decreased, and terminal orders weakened. The sales of filament yarns increased significantly, and enterprises are expected to maintain their operating rates after destocking. In the second half of the year, with the expectation of PTA inventory accumulation, holding far - month reverse spreads is recommended. PX has no prominent supply - demand contradictions but may have periodic mismatches, and its absolute price is mainly driven by oil prices. Ethylene glycol rebounded due to the boost of oil prices, with increased weekly operation, port inventory accumulation, and stable arrival volume. The supply - demand situation is slightly weakening. Short - fiber and bottle - grade chips rose and then moderately declined, with the overall price center rising. The short - fiber 7 - 8 spread fluctuated sharply. The industry's operating rate has declined from the high point in the first half of the year, and inventories have continuously decreased. Bottle - grade chips may face inventory accumulation pressure after the peak order season [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC closed higher. The fundamental situation of high supply and weak demand continues. In June, with fewer maintenance and new production, supply pressure is high. Exports have entered the off - season, domestic demand is weak, and there is inventory pressure. Although the price of calcium carbide has risen, chlor - alkali integration still has profits, and cost support is weak. The futures price may fluctuate at a low level. Caustic soda fell below the previous low. Major alumina plants in Shandong reduced their quotes. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is good, and with less maintenance and new production capacity release in June, supply is at a high level. Non - aluminum demand is average, and there is resistance to high prices. Liquid caustic soda inventories are high, and the futures price is under pressure at a high level [7] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass closed lower. The industry continues to accumulate inventory, with high inventory pressure. Recently, cold repairs and ignitions coexist, and production capacity fluctuates slightly. Pay attention to the fuel switch of production lines in Shahe. Processing orders are weak. During the rainy season and with high inventories, the driving force is still weak. Soda ash continues to have high supply and high inventory, and the cost has decreased, causing the futures price to reach a new low [8]

中东紧张局势升级，摩根大通警告原油或升至130美元。 据央视新闻最新报道，当地时间12日凌晨，以色列对伊朗发动袭击。环球网援引据沙特媒体哈达斯消息称，以色列国防部长卡茨宣布以色列对伊朗发动先发制 人的打击。 据追风交易台消息，摩根大通首席大宗商品分析师Natasha Kaneva在其最新发布的报告中分析称， 当前油价接近70美元，较其模型估算的6月公允价值66美 元高出约4美元，暗示市场已计入7%的最坏情境概率。 Kaneva进一步指出，如果冲突扩大，油价反应将呈指数级而非线性增长。 若霍尔木兹海峡被封锁，油价可能飙升至120-130美元区间。 | | Crude | Products | Total | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | UAE | 2,835 | 1.568 | 4.403 | | Saudi Arabia | 5,973 | 1,243 | 7,216 | | Kuwait | 1,360 | 976 | 2,336 | | Iran | 1,775 | 328 | 2,134 | | Qatar | 744 | 488 | 1,232 | | bell | 3,2 ...

中东紧张局势升级，摩根大通警告原油或升至130美元。 据央视新闻最新报道，当地时间12日凌晨，以色列对伊朗发动袭击。环球网援引据沙特媒体哈达斯消息 称，以色列国防部长卡茨宣布以色列对伊朗发动先发制人的打击。 据追风交易台消息，摩根大通首席大宗商品分析师Natasha Kaneva在其最新发布的报告中分析称，当前 油价接近70美元，较其模型估算的6月公允价值66美元高出约4美元，暗示市场已计入7%的最坏情境概 率。 历史上，尽管伊朗多次威胁封锁海峡——尤其是在1980年代伊朗-伊拉克战争"油轮战争"期间，以及 2007-2008年与美国海军的对峙中——但海峡从未真正关闭。 摩根大通分析认为，伊朗之所以始终未封锁霍尔木兹海峡，是因为封锁成本对伊朗自身而言过于高昂。 不仅会违背国际准则，更将直接威胁海湾国家经济利益，可能孤立伊朗于海湾合作委员会（GCC）。 报告进一步指出，而一旦冲突升级至全面战争，这一"红线"可能被突破。 市场的理性与疯狂 摩根大通对油价的基本预测依然谨慎，认为2025年剩余时间油价将维持在60美元/桶中低区间，2026年 为60美元/桶。 Kaneva进一步指出，如果冲突扩大，油价反应将呈指数级 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the sensitivity of U.S. shale oil activity to oil prices, particularly under $60 per barrel, indicating that a $1 change in WTI price could risk 4-5 drilling rigs and 2-3 hydraulic fracturing platforms [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Impact - The IEA model shows a better linear relationship between the number of rigs and the lagged WTI price when the price is below $60 [1][3]. - In April-May 2025, WTI oil prices fell by approximately $10 per barrel, leading to a notable decline in the number of U.S. drilling rigs [1][3]. - By early June, the number of oil rigs decreased by 42 compared to the end of March, while natural gas rigs increased by 11 [1][3]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure Adjustments - U.S. shale oil companies have been maintaining capital expenditure discipline, with many lowering their annual capital expenditure guidance following the drop in oil prices [2]. - Despite the reduction in capital expenditure guidance, the production guidance for oil and gas remained largely unchanged, although some companies plan to reduce oil rig counts while increasing natural gas rig counts [2]. Group 3: Production Costs and Breakeven Points - In Q1 2025, shale oil production costs continued to experience deflation, attributed to reduced rig counts, lower oil prices, and declining service costs [4]. - The latest analysis indicates that the breakeven oil prices for major shale oil companies range from $45 to $62 per barrel, with an average of $54 per barrel, slightly lower than in 2024 [5]. - The highest breakeven point is noted for Western Oil at $62 per barrel [5]. Group 4: Production Willingness - Shale oil companies are likely to increase production only if oil prices rise to the $65-$70 range [7]. - In the $50-$60 range, companies may maintain current activity levels but could slightly reduce rig counts while focusing on efficiency [7]. - Below $50, a significant reduction in production is anticipated [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the oil and gas industry [6][7]. Core Views - OPEC+ has announced a continuation of production increases of 411,000 barrels per day for July, significantly impacting oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and tariff policies [1][2]. - The Brent crude oil price is expected to stabilize between $65 and $75 per barrel in 2025, while WTI crude oil is projected to be between $60 and $70 per barrel [3][18]. Summary by Sections 1. May Oil Price Review - In May 2025, the average price of Brent crude oil futures was $64.0 per barrel, down by $2.5 from the previous month, while WTI averaged $61.3 per barrel, down by $1.5 [1][14]. - The fluctuations in oil prices were influenced by the "reciprocal tariff" policy, OPEC+ production announcements, and geopolitical events in the Middle East [1][14]. 2. Oil Price Outlook - OPEC+ has decided to extend production increases of 411,000 barrels per day, which is three times the original increase plan [2][16]. - Major energy agencies forecast an increase in global oil demand of 730,000 to 1,300,000 barrels per day in 2025, and 760,000 to 1,280,000 barrels per day in 2026 [3][17]. 3. Key Data Tracking - As of May 30, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settled at $60.79 per barrel, a 4.4% increase from the previous month, while Brent settled at $63.90 per barrel, a 1.2% increase [36]. - The average production of U.S. crude oil in May 2025 was 13.4 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous month [44]. - The report highlights that the capital expenditure willingness in overseas markets is low, indicating a lack of conditions for significant production increases [44][29]. 4. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends key stocks including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), Satellite Chemical, CNOOC Development, and Guanghui Energy [4].

新华财经纽约6月4日电（记者刘亚南）由于上周美国商业石油库存大幅增加，国际油价在隔夜市场窄幅 盘整，4日早盘震荡走高，随后快速走低，午后窄幅盘整，收盘时国际油价均下跌。 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所7月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌0.56美元，收于每桶62.85美元，跌幅 为0.88%；8月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌0.77美元，收于每桶64.86美元，跌幅为1.17%。 美国石油学会在3日晚些时候发布的数据显示，上周美国商业原油库存环比下降330万桶，汽油和蒸馏油 库存则分别环比增加470万桶和76万桶。 东京NLI研究所高级经济学家上野豪（TsuyoshiUeno）表示，尽管存在对加拿大供应减少的担忧，美国 与伊朗核问题谈判停滞，石油市场进一步走高面临困难。此外，欧佩克+的供应增加限制油价的上涨。 上野豪说，由于投资者对关税带来的经济影响依然感到谨慎，获利了结让对中美经贸会谈取得进展的期 望蒙上阴影。 美国普莱斯期货集团高级市场分析师菲尔·弗林表示，最近几日油价上涨主要是由于供应收紧和地缘政 治因素，加拿大的野火也刺激油价走高。目前，大火已经让加拿大油砂产能关闭34.4万桶／日。 （文章来源：新华财经 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Fuel oil: Oscillating [2] - Asphalt: Oscillating [2] - Polyester: Oscillating with a downward bias [3] - Rubber: Oscillating with a downward bias [4] - Methanol: Oscillating [4] - Polyolefins: Oscillating with a downward bias [4] - Polyvinyl chloride: Oscillating [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The wildfires in Alberta, Canada, have led to a reduction in crude oil supply, supporting oil prices. In the short - term, oil prices are expected to continue to rebound due to short - term demand support and geopolitical disturbances [1]. - For fuel oil, OPEC+ maintaining the production increase rate eases the pressure on oil prices at the cost end. Short - term prices of FU and LU are expected to stabilize and rise. The spread between LU - FU is expected to be stable, and it is advisable to wait and see. The short - term anti - arbitrage market of FU07 may continue, but the profit margin may be limited [2]. - For asphalt, although there is support at the bottom in the short - term due to factors such as low production plans and inventory control, the upward space is limited, and the price is expected to show a pattern of short - term high - level oscillation and medium - term downward pressure [2]. - For polyester, with the supply recovery of TA and the high operating load of the downstream polyester end, under the situation of strong supply and stable demand, there is pressure above the TA price, and the EG price may show an oscillating and downward trend [3]. - For rubber, the fundamentals are weak, with the expectation of strong supply and weak demand deepening. After the rubber price breaks through the support level, it may continue to decline. The price of butadiene rubber is also weak due to weak demand [4]. - For methanol, although there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, the increase in imports in June is expected to be small, and the demand change is not significant. Therefore, the inventory increase may be limited, and the price has support. Attention should be paid to the rebound opportunity [4]. - For polyolefins, the marginal change in demand is not significant, and the market is in the off - season. The market lacks obvious driving forces, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - For polyvinyl chloride, the fundamentals are loose in June, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. The main contract V2509 has the expectation of a peak season, but the upward space is limited due to weak fundamentals. The price is expected to maintain low - level oscillation, and the basis and inter - month spread will gradually strengthen [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Tuesday, the oil price center continued to rise. The WTI July contract closed up $0.89 to $63.41 per barrel, a 1.42% increase; the Brent August contract closed up $1.00 to $65.63 per barrel, a 1.55% increase; the SC2507 closed at 469.0 yuan per barrel, up 4.0 yuan per barrel, a 0.86% increase. Wildfires in Alberta, Canada, led to the shutdown of nearly 350,000 barrels per day of heavy crude oil production, about 7% of the country's oil production. EIA data showed that before the driving season, the average retail gasoline price in the US before the Memorial Day weekend was 14% lower than last year, and the gasoline consumption during the Memorial Day weekend increased by 2% compared with the same period last year [1]. - **Fuel oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.85% at 2,913 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2507 closed up 1.47% at 3,509 yuan per ton. The inflow of low - sulfur arbitrage cargoes from Northwest Europe to the Singapore market is expected to increase in June, but the short - term supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is temporarily tight. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the supply from Russia is expected to continue to rise, but Iran's exports remain low, and the power generation demand in the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa is expected to increase significantly [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.22% at 3,482 yuan per ton. In June, the rainy weather in the south restricts the release of terminal demand, but the planned production level of refineries is not high. With the slow release of demand in the north and the low supply in North China, the supply in Shandong is expected to decrease, which provides bottom support for the asphalt price in the short - term. However, the upward space is limited, and the price is expected to show high - level oscillation in the short - term and downward pressure in the medium - term [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4,628 yuan per ton yesterday, down 1.53%; EG2509 closed at 4,306 yuan per ton, down 0.99%. An East China 3 million - ton PTA plant restarted yesterday, and a 340,000 - ton/year MEG plant in East China has restarted. A large domestic polyester bottle - chip manufacturer has recently reduced production, involving nearly 700,000 tons of production capacity, and there are plans for further production reduction. The PX fundamentals are expected to be positive, supporting the PX price and PXN profit repair. Under the situation of strong supply and stable demand, there is pressure above the TA price, and the EG price may show an oscillating and downward trend [3]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main natural rubber contract RU2509 closed up 45 yuan per ton to 13,450 yuan per ton; the main NR contract closed down 55 yuan per ton to 11,810 yuan per ton; the main butadiene rubber contract BR closed down 270 yuan per ton to 10,875 yuan per ton. The fundamentals of rubber are weak, with the expectation of strong supply and weak demand deepening. The price may continue to decline after breaking through the support level. The supply of butadiene rubber changes little in June, but the downstream and terminal automobile demand weakens significantly, and the price is under pressure [4]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,275 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 1,862.5 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was between $254 - 258 per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was between $318 - 323 per ton. Although there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, the increase in imports in June is expected to be small, and the demand change is not significant. Therefore, the inventory increase may be limited, and the price has support [4]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China wire - drawing PP was between 6,990 - 7,200 yuan per ton. The demand side changes little, and downstream purchases are mainly based on rigid demand. Refineries need to reduce prices to destock. In the off - season of demand, the market lacks obvious driving forces, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [4][6]. - **Polyvinyl chloride**: On Tuesday, the price in the East China PVC market was weakly adjusted. The market is expected to maintain low - level oscillation in June, with the basis and inter - month spread gradually strengthening [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on June 4, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - Wildfires in Alberta, Canada, have led to the shutdown of nearly 350,000 barrels per day of heavy crude oil production, about 7% of the country's oil production. - Kazakhstan reaffirmed its willingness to cooperate closely with OPEC and countries participating in coordinated production cuts to ensure the stability of the oil market [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [14][15][18] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [31] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It includes the spread charts between different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [62] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It shows the cash - flow and profit charts of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production, PP production, and LLDPE production [71]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, research areas, and professional qualifications [77][78][79]