Economic Outlook - The Peterson Institute for International Economics warns that despite temporarily avoiding a technical recession, the U.S. economy is facing significant challenges due to a combination of tariffs, tightened immigration policies, and budget cuts, leading to a projected GDP growth drop from 2.5% in 2024 to 0.1% in 2025, with inflation expectations rising to 4.5% and unemployment potentially reaching 5% [1][4]. Tariff Impact - The report identifies recent tariff increases as the "core engine" of economic slowdown, with the tariff rate on imported goods reaching 28% in Q1 2025, a 15 percentage point increase from 2023, resulting in a 9.7% year-over-year rise in the consumer price index for imported goods [3][4]. - The hidden cost of tariffs is significant, with every $1 in tariff revenue costing consumers $1.20, affecting essential goods and leading to an 18% increase in raw material costs for manufacturers [3][4]. Labor Market and Immigration - The tightening of immigration policies is projected to reduce legal immigration quotas by 40% compared to 2023, leading to a 1.2 percentage point decline in labor force participation, impacting approximately 3 million jobs in retail and manufacturing [4][5]. - The labor shortage is expected to increase business costs and reduce potential consumer demand by $80 billion annually [4]. Government Budget Cuts - A 20% budget cut in government efficiency departments is causing delays in customs clearance and small business subsidy approvals, exacerbating challenges for the private sector [4][5]. - 38% of businesses have reportedly abandoned plans to expand into overseas markets due to government approval delays [4]. Consumer Spending and Inflation - Rising inflation is eroding wage growth, leading to a contraction in consumer spending, with core retail sales declining by 0.3% in March [5][6]. - The economic slowdown in the U.S. is expected to impact global markets, with emerging market export orders declining by 15% and a projected 0.8 percentage point reduction in growth for economies reliant on U.S. exports [5][6]. Federal Reserve Policy Challenges - The report warns that the Federal Reserve may face a "stagflation paradox," where high inflation and low growth limit policy options, potentially leading to a repeat of the 1970s scenario where interest rates were raised significantly to combat inflation at the cost of prolonged recession [8].

资料图 纽约期货（主力合约）在4月2日的海外市场一度上涨55.6美元（1.8%），达到了每盎司3201.6 美元，创出新高。市场上越来越多观点认为，关税的实施将再次加剧美国的通胀担忧，并且对美 国及全球经济构成下行压力…… 黄金价格突破了每盎司3200美元。纽约期货（主力合约）在4月2日的海外市场一度上涨55.6美元 （1.8%），达到了每盎司3201.6美元，创出新高。 如果美国经济陷入物价上涨和经济停滞并行的"滞涨"状态，经济放缓将对股市产生压力，物价上 涨则会给债券市场带来逆风。市场分析师丰岛逸夫指出："金价在既能抵御通胀又能应对经济减速 的情况下吸引了需求，从而推动了价格上涨"。 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 日经中文网 https://cn.nikkei.com 美国总统特朗普在同一天签署总统令，宣布实施将关税税率提高到与贸易伙伴国相同水平的"对等 关税"。市场上越来越多观点认为，关税的实施将再次加剧美国的通胀担忧，并且对美国及全球经 济构成下行压力。 ...

Economic Recovery - In January-February, the revenue of industrial enterprises increased by 2.8% year-on-year, up by 0.7 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024[4] - The profits of industrial enterprises decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, but this is an improvement of 3 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024[4] - The manufacturing PMI for March was 50.5, a rise of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, marking a nearly one-year high[6] Trade and Tariff Impact - The ongoing increase in U.S. tariffs has extended the "export rush" effect, supporting inventory replenishment and order increases for enterprises[2] - The upcoming U.S. tariff investigation results are expected to significantly impact global trade order and suppress market risk appetite[11] - The U.S. economy continues to weaken, with the Markit manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.8 in March, indicating a contraction[18] Market Trends - The equity market has seen a shift in style, with technology stocks experiencing notable adjustments and a reduction in trading volume, indicating a convergence of market divergence[2] - Risk appetite in the market is declining, with gold prices expected to remain high due to geopolitical uncertainties and economic cooling in the U.S.[22] - The performance of dividend and consumer sectors has been relatively strong as investors seek opportunities outside of technology stocks[11]

Economic Overview - In early 2025, China's economy showed stability, with January's financial data indicating marginal improvements in total financial volume and structure[5] - The average new home price in 70 major cities in China fell by 0.1% month-on-month in January, with a year-on-year decline narrowing from 5.7% to 5.4%[8] - The U.S. economy is facing stagnation risks due to high inflation expectations and a high-interest rate environment, leading to renewed market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts[5] U.S. Economic Indicators - In January 2025, U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 143,000, with the three-month moving average rising to 237,000, the highest since April 2023[13] - The U.S. CPI year-on-year growth rose to 3% in January, the highest since June 2024, with core CPI at 3.3%[16] - Retail sales in the U.S. fell by 0.9% in January, the largest decline since March 2023, influenced by adverse weather and declining consumer confidence[20] Geopolitical and Trade Dynamics - The U.S. continues to apply tariff pressures on Mexico and Canada, with a 10% tariff on Chinese products, leading to retaliatory measures from China[5] - The first phase of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas began on January 19, 2025, with ongoing negotiations for a second phase[5] - Trump's new policies are reshaping U.S. geopolitical strategies, including significant tariff implementations and immigration reforms, which may impact economic growth[21] Market Trends and Asset Allocation - The Chinese stock market is expected to experience low volatility in 2025, with a focus on defensive asset allocation strategies due to ongoing geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties[39] - Recommendations for asset allocation in 2025 include increasing government bonds to hedge against weakening economic growth, maintaining gold as a hedge against currency depreciation, and selectively increasing blue-chip stocks in the second half of the year[43] - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.3% and 1.9% in 2025, while U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are expected to remain between 4% and 5%[33][35]

以下文章来源于油市小蓝莓 ，作者王谦 油市小蓝莓 . 紫金天风期货能化团队 文 | 王谦 来源 | 油市小蓝莓 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 观点小结 自2月20日以来，国际原油出现两次较为明显的下跌，也间接的引发了国内原油价格的回落，区域价差方面，EFS价差持续走强也体现 出东西方的阶段性矛盾的分化。总结而言，此轮下跌原因在于1、供应：特朗普施压库尔德区域增产；2、地缘：俄罗斯乌克兰关系的进 一步缓和；3、宏观：滞涨情绪再度发酵。 展望后市，我们以当下条件静态推演来看，OPEC对区间价格下方的挺价意愿仍在，平衡表显示Q1、Q2整体呈现弱平衡格局，基本面 带来的结构性矛盾暂时不明显。但是需要注意部分超预期因素影响，包括1、特朗普的政策弹性的缓和程度；2、中东各国的后续表态； 3、宏观指标的转向或进一步恶化。 01 外盘大幅走弱带动内盘下行 自2月20日以来，国际原油出现两次较大幅度的下跌，以Brent主力连续为例，截至当日收盘，2月21日收跌3.62%，2月25日收跌2.54%。 区域价差方面，自一月中旬以来，欧美盘和亚洲盘出现较为明显的分化，EFS出现较为明显的走弱，Dubai价格相较Brent出 ...