在货币政策预期方面，摩根大通预计美联储将在 12 月至 2026 年春季期间实施降息举措，降息幅度达 100 个基点。分析师进一步强调，如果美国经济衰退的 情况成真，或者经济放缓幅度超出预期，美联储将不得不开启更为激进的降息周期。这一预测并非空穴来风，历史数据显示，每当美国经济面临衰退风险 时，美联储通常会通过降息来刺激经济增长。然而，当前美国通胀水平仍处于高位，降息政策可能会进一步加剧通胀压力，这也让美联储在货币政策调整上 面临两难抉择。 摩根大通对美国经济前景持谨慎悲观态度，明确表示美国今年下半年陷入衰退的概率高达 40%。在经济增长预期方面，该行将 2025 年美国经济增长率大幅 下调至 1.3%，与年初预测的 2% 相比，差距显著。报告直言不讳地指出："关税上调带来的滞胀效应是我们下调今年 GDP 增长预期的原因。" 美国关税政策 犹如一把双刃剑，表面上试图保护本土产业，实则扰乱了全球供应链的正常运转。以制造业为例，许多美国企业因关税成本上升，面临原材料价格上涨、生 产成本增加的困境，不得不压缩生产规模或提高产品价格。这不仅导致企业利润下滑，还使得消费者购买力下降，最终抑制了经济增长。同时，关税政策引 ...

进入2025年以来，受全球经济增长放缓导致需求减少、主机厂转型压力传导、美国关税政策等多重 因素影响，跨国汽车零部件企业正经历新一轮"倒闭潮"。近日，全球汽车零部件巨头马瑞利集团宣布， 为全面重组长期债务，已在美国特拉华州地方法院正式提交破产保护申请。与此同时，德国汽车零部件 供应商施洛特也在破产边缘挣扎。 需求下滑 供应商承压 马瑞利集团申请破产保护令业内略微有些震惊，这家"日意混血"的零部件集团，由原日产旗下零部件供 应商康奈可和原菲亚特克莱斯勒（FCA）旗下的玛涅蒂·马瑞利于2019年合并而成。 据悉，2016年11月，美国私募股权巨头KKR从日产手中收购了康奈可，又于2019年将当时FCA旗下的 意大利零部件供应商马瑞利收入囊中。随后，KKR将康奈可和马瑞利进行合并。由于马瑞利这个名号 在全球比康奈可更响亮，因此，合并后的新集团仍被命名为"马瑞利"。日产以及2021年由FCA和标致雪 铁龙合并诞生的Stellantis集团是马瑞利的核心客户。 事实上，包括施洛特在内，诸多传统零部件企业在向电动化、智能化转型中遭遇严峻挑战。一方面，电 动化转型需要巨额研发投入，但市场需求增速不及预期，通用汽车、福特等主 ...

日本央行在去年结束了持续十年的大规模刺激计划，并在今年1月将短期利率上调至0.5%，认为日本正 接近可持续实现2%通胀目标的门槛。 虽然日本央行已表明愿意进一步加息，但美国关税带来的经济影响迫使其下调增长预期，也使下一次加 息的时机变得更加复杂。而与此同时，日本的消费者通胀已连续三年超过日本央行2%的目标，原因是 企业持续将不断上升的原材料成本转嫁给消费者。 田村直树指出，日本4月和5月的消费者通胀数据强于预期，近期食品价格的上涨可能由劳动力长期短缺 和气候变化等结构性因素推动。他还表示，随着价格上涨变得更为普遍，日本中长期的通胀预期正逐步 上升。他表示："我个人认为，应将重点放在企业和家庭的通胀预期上，因为他们才是经济活动的真正 推动者。我认为企业和家庭的预期已经大致达到了2%。""当我们实现物价稳定目标的可能性上升，或 价格上行风险增大时，即使面临更高的不确定性，我们也可能面临需要果断采取行动的局面。" 日本央行在上周的政策会议上将利率维持在0.5%不变，并表示将从下一财年开始放慢削减购债步伐。 作为前商业银行家，田村直树是唯一反对日本央行从下一财年开始放慢削减购债步伐的委员，他主张维 持当前的削减购债步 ...

日本央行审议摘要：一位成员表示，尽管目前尚未观察到美国关税政策的直接影响，但日本经济已出现 一定程度的停滞。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On June 13, the US-Iran nuclear negotiation was hopeless, Israel attacked Iran, and the Middle East turmoil escalated with a sharp rise in crude oil prices. After 10 days, oil price growth weakened and gold price first soared then declined, indicating market optimism about the Middle East situation. On June 22, US military planes bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities, and Iran vowed to retaliate, which may boost gold prices. In the long run, gold prices have been oscillating at a high level since the second quarter, facing significant upward pressure. If the Middle East situation is under control, gold prices may remain under pressure in the third quarter due to the increased market risk appetite after the relaxation of US tariff policies [3][26] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report includes a chart of the linkage between the US dollar index and COMEX gold futures closing price, but no specific trend description is provided [7] 1.2 Indicator Price Changes - From June 13 to June 20, COMEX gold decreased by 1.98% from 3,452.60 to 3,384.40; COMEX silver decreased by 1.15% from 36.37 to 35.95; SHFE gold主力 decreased by 1.99% from 794.36 to 778.58; SHFE silver主力 decreased by 1.44% from 8,791.00 to 8,664.00; the US dollar index increased by 0.63% from 98.15 to 98.76; the US dollar against the offshore RMB decreased by 0.14% from 7.19 to 7.18; the 10-year US Treasury real yield decreased by 0.08 from 2.13 to 2.05; the S&P 500 decreased by 0.15% from 5,976.97 to 5,967.84; the US crude oil continuous increased by 2.49% from 73.18 to 75.00; the COMEX gold-silver ratio decreased by 0.83% from 94.93 to 94.14; the SHFE gold-silver ratio decreased by 0.55% from 90.36 to 89.86; the SPDR gold ETF increased by 9.75 from 940.49 to 950.24; the iShare gold ETF increased by 1.76 from 436.00 to 437.76 [8] 2. Gold Price Soars and Then Declines - Last week, the gold price soared and then declined, while the US dollar index bottomed out and rebounded, crude oil showed weak upward momentum, and the three major US stock indexes did not have significant declines, indicating market optimism about the Middle East situation. Over the weekend, the Middle East situation heated up, which is beneficial to the gold price. On June 22, US military planes bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities, and on the day after the Fed's June interest rate meeting, Fed Governor Waller said that the Fed should cut interest rates as early as July [10] 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - Since late May, the net long non-commercial positions on COMEX have been rising. As of June 10, compared with the previous week, long positions decreased by 987, short positions decreased by 563, and net long positions decreased by 424. This indicator is more sensitive to precious metal price trends than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness [15] - Since late May, gold ETFs have started to rise, and silver ETFs have risen significantly. In early June, silver prices rose sharply with obvious ETF position increases, showing a combination of price and volume increases. Silver broke through the May 2024 high, and short-term capital attention has rapidly increased, expected to remain strong [17] - Since late April, the gold price soared and then declined, and the gold-silver ratio also declined from a high level. Silver benefited from its precious metal attribute and had a short-term supplementary increase. It broke through the one-year oscillation high, and short-term capital attention increased with strong upward momentum. The gold-silver ratio is expected to continue to be weak [20] - Since June, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields has decreased slightly overall [22] 4. Conclusion - The analysis is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that the recent Middle East situation changes may boost gold prices, but in the long run, gold prices face upward pressure and may remain under pressure in the third quarter if the Middle East situation is controllable [3][26]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the urgent need for global monetary policy coordination in the context of rising inflation, high debt, and increasing international trade frictions, which are reshaping global supply chains and economic growth dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Challenges in Global Monetary Policy Coordination - Significant differences in macroeconomic conditions among countries lead to a "self-governing" approach to monetary policy, complicating unified macroeconomic control [2]. - The spillover effects of major economies' monetary policies are increasingly impacting global economic patterns, with potential for rapid transmission through financial crises [2][3]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies exacerbates global economic instability, affecting confidence in the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury securities [3]. Group 2: The Role of Alternative Currencies and Market Integration - In light of declining confidence in the U.S. dollar and Treasury securities, there is a call to develop alternative currency support systems, with China’s role being particularly highlighted [4]. - Europe is urged to address its strategic vulnerabilities by creating a more integrated market, such as a unified European debt market, to provide reliable investment alternatives to U.S. Treasuries [4]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Central Bank Policies - Central banks must consider multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions, climate change, and technological advancements, which pose significant challenges to their policy objectives [5][6]. - The need for enhanced communication and coordination among central banks is emphasized to stabilize inflation expectations and address emerging risks [6]. Group 4: Institutional Framework for Coordination - There is a lack of a formal institution to coordinate global macroeconomic or monetary policies, with existing platforms like the IMF facing limitations in their decision-making processes [7]. - Suggestions include enhancing the G20's mechanisms and possibly establishing a dedicated monetary policy department to improve the effectiveness of global policy coordination [7].

Summary of the Conference Call for Giant Technology Company Overview - **Company**: Giant Technology - **Industry**: Mechanical and Consumer Goods Key Points and Arguments Expansion and Production Capacity - Giant Technology is establishing production bases in Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam, with plans to expand to Malaysia to avoid US tariffs and increase downstream customer share switching. By 2027, Southeast Asia's production capacity is expected to grow significantly, enhancing future growth certainty [2][5] Impact of US Real Estate Market - The current low sales of second-hand homes in the US indicate a high probability of stabilizing or even increasing demand. For low-value consumables, price increases have minimal impact on purchasing behavior, supporting the performance growth of Giant Technology [2][6] Price Adjustments and Demand - Price adjustments made in April and May did not significantly affect terminal demand. Downstream customers are switching capacities to companies like Giant Technology, allowing for independent revenue growth from industry beta fluctuations [2][8] Tariff Policy and Market Conditions - The clarity of Trump's tariff policy suggests that overseas market tax rates may not exceed 25%, keeping terminal price increases manageable. The annual CPI increase of 2-3% for consumer goods indicates that a 10% price increase for low-value products is acceptable, thus limiting concerns over overall demand [2][9] Performance and Future Growth - Despite the impact of high tariffs in April and May, Giant Technology still achieved year-on-year revenue growth in Q2. The company is expected to enter a profit release period in Q3 and Q4 of 2025, with strong performance certainty for 2025 and 2026 [4][11] Competitive Advantage through Global Diversification - The global diversification of production bases allows Giant Technology to meet the diverse supply chain needs of customers while reducing cost pressures and increasing profitability. The planned significant growth in Southeast Asia's production capacity by 2027 further solidifies its competitive position [7][12] Investor Sentiment and Market Outlook - Investors are not overly concerned about price increases affecting consumer behavior, as evidenced by stable demand in the US market. The company’s ability to adapt to tariff impacts and demand changes presents a favorable opportunity for growth [8][10] Additional Important Insights - The mechanical industry leaders are underperforming compared to consumer goods companies due to uncertainties related to tariff impacts on performance predictability. In contrast, consumer goods companies exhibit stronger performance certainty due to differing product and industry cycles [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. tariff policy on global economic stability and the need for coordinated monetary policies among countries to mitigate risks and foster a favorable financial environment for global economic growth [1][2][4]. Group 1: Impact of U.S. Tariff Policy - The U.S. government's significant increase in tariffs has caused major disruptions to the global economic order, affecting investment and consumption decisions worldwide, and increasing financial market volatility [2][3]. - The uncertainty stemming from U.S. tariffs has led to pressure on traditionally safe assets, prompting central banks to focus on medium-term goals to ensure financial market stability [3][5]. - The tariff policy undermines the global multilateral trade system, leading to widespread uncertainty and potentially restructuring global trade patterns, which could adversely affect macroeconomic conditions in various countries [3][4]. Group 2: Need for Monetary Policy Coordination - Strengthening coordination of monetary policies among countries is essential to effectively respond to tariff shocks and maintain financial stability [4][5]. - The current state of global monetary policy coordination is lacking, with no single institution responsible for overseeing it, and a need for more research and consensus-building [6]. - Major central banks should utilize tools like currency swap agreements to provide sufficient liquidity in times of uncertainty and crisis [5][6]. Group 3: Future of the International Monetary System - The weakening of the dollar's credibility due to rising U.S. fiscal deficits and trade protectionism suggests a shift towards a more diversified international monetary system [7][8]. - The internationalization of currencies like the renminbi and euro is seen as a step towards reducing reliance on the dollar and promoting a competitive environment among major currencies [7][8]. - The potential establishment of a platform by the IMF for issuing a supranational currency based on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is proposed as a way to enhance the stability of the global monetary system [7][8].

新华社北京6月19日电 题：美关税政策拉低全球经济预期 新华社记者闫亮 世界银行日前将2025年全球经济增长预期从今年1月份的2.7%下调至2.3%，同时下调近70%经济体 的增速预期，成为又一家看空全球经济增长前景的主流国际机构。 今年以来，多家国际机构下调乃至多次下调全球经济增长预期，普遍将美国贸易政策不确定性列为 重要原因。经济学家认为，美国政府一系列单边关税政策冲击全球经贸秩序，为全球市场带来巨大不确 定性，加剧全球经济风险。 下调增速成普遍预期 世界银行在6月10日发布的最新一期《全球经济展望》报告中预计，今年发达经济体经济将增长 1.2%，比此前预测低0.5个百分点，其中美国经济增速预期从此前的2.3%大幅下调至1.4%。同时，今年 新兴市场和发展中经济体预计增长3.8%，比此前预测低0.3个百分点。 谈及此次下调时，世界银行高级副行长兼首席经济学家英德米特·吉尔表示，这将是"17年来除全球 经济衰退以外的最差表现"。 美国哈佛大学美国政治研究中心—哈里斯民调机构日前发布的一项民调结果显示，大多数选民认 为，关税政策是美国新一届政府"最大的失败"。世界银行副首席经济学家艾汉·柯塞说，美国关税带来 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the US dollar index has fallen to its lowest level in three years due to US tariff policies and economic uncertainty, and it is expected to remain weak over the next 12 months [1] - As of mid-June, the dollar index has dropped nearly 10% this year, with the CIO noting that harsher-than-expected US tariff measures have undermined confidence in the "American exceptionalism" narrative [1] - The report indicates that despite previous support from expansionary fiscal policies and tightening monetary policies, the situation is changing as US government spending is constrained and trade war uncertainties persist [1] Group 2 - The report suggests that investors should adopt a strategy of "reduce, hedge, and diversify" to manage dollar risk exposure, predicting that the euro to dollar exchange rate could rise to 1.20 by June 2026 [1] - Technical analysis shows signs of stabilization for the dollar, with a potential bullish divergence indicated by the relative strength index (RSI) despite the dollar hitting new lows [2] - Market sentiment is extremely pessimistic, with current bearish sentiment towards the dollar reaching extreme levels not seen in the past 20 years, which could signal a market correction [2] Group 3 - The historical high correlation between the dollar and US Treasury yields has weakened, with the correlation coefficient dropping from 0.86 to 0.42 this year, suggesting potential for a dollar rebound if the relationship normalizes [2] - The dollar index is close to breaking a key downward trend line, with a breakthrough potentially leading to a significant improvement in the technical outlook [2] - If the dollar falls below the June 12 closing price of 97.92 and the RSI weakens again, expectations for a dollar rebound may be dashed, indicating a critical moment for market direction [3]