Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on July 23, 2025, including股指期货 (strong - biased oscillation),国债期货 (weak - biased oscillation), and multiple commodity futures (strong - biased, weak - biased, or wide - range oscillations) [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Overview - On July 22, 2025, the domestic commodity market saw a rare limit - up surge, with six major futures contracts such as glass, soda ash, coking coal, coke, industrial silicon, and polysilicon closing at the limit - up. The night session of domestic black futures continued to rise, with coking coal up 11% and coke up 5.29%. International precious metal futures generally rose, while international oil prices slightly declined [12]. 2. Macro - economic News - The "Rural Highway Regulations" will be implemented on September 15, 2025, aiming to promote the high - quality development of rural highways. The US and China may discuss issues such as China's purchase of oil from Russia and Iran. The WTO released an arbitration ruling on a Sino - EU trade dispute, and China expressed dissatisfaction. As of the end of June, the number of participants in basic old - age, unemployment, and work - related injury insurance in China increased steadily year - on - year. In the first half of the year, non - bank cross - border capital inflows in China reached $127.3 billion, and foreign investors net - bought domestic stocks and funds worth $10.1 billion, reversing the net - selling trend of the past two years [7]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast 3.1 Stock Index Futures - On July 22, 2025, major stock index futures contracts such as IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 showed a trend of opening slightly higher, first falling then rising, and oscillating upwards. It is expected that on July 23, stock index futures will oscillate strongly. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4132 and 4168 points and support levels at 4110 and 4090 points [16][20]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - On July 22, 2025, the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts T2509 and TL2509 showed a downward trend. It is expected that on July 23, they will oscillate weakly. T2509 has support levels at 108.50 and 108.45 yuan and resistance levels at 108.70 and 108.79 yuan; TL2509 has support levels at 119.2 and 118.6 yuan and resistance levels at 119.8 and 120.1 yuan [38][44]. 3.3 Precious Metal Futures - On July 22, 2025, the gold futures contract AU2510 and the silver futures contract AG2510 both showed an upward trend. It is expected that on July 23, they will oscillate strongly. AU2510 will attack resistance levels at 794.9 and 798.8 yuan/gram; AG2510 will attack resistance levels at 9550 and 9600 yuan/kg and may reach a new high since listing [44][53]. 3.4 Base Metal Futures - On July 22, 2025, copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures contracts showed different trends. It is expected that on July 23, copper futures CU2509 will oscillate strongly and attack resistance levels at 80400 and 80800 yuan/ton; aluminum futures AL2509 will also oscillate strongly with resistance levels at 21000 and 21080 yuan/ton [56][61]. 3.5 Energy and Chemical Futures - On July 22, 2025, the crude oil futures contract SC2509 declined. It is expected that on July 23, it will oscillate and consolidate, with support levels at 500 and 497 yuan/barrel and resistance levels at 506 and 510 yuan/barrel. Other energy and chemical futures such as PTA, PVC, and methanol also have corresponding trends and forecasts [95]. 3.6 Agricultural Futures - On July 22, 2025, the soybean meal futures contract M2509 and the natural rubber futures contract RU2509 showed an upward trend. It is expected that on July 23, they will oscillate strongly. M2509 has resistance levels at 3100 and 3109 yuan/ton; RU2509 has resistance levels at 15280 and 15350 yuan/ton [104][106]. 3.7 Other Commodity Futures - On July 22, 2025, industrial silicon, polysilicon, coking coal, glass, soda ash, and other commodity futures contracts showed significant increases, with many closing at the limit - up. It is expected that on July 23, they will continue to show strong - biased or wide - range oscillations. For example, coking coal futures JM2509 has a high probability of closing at the limit - up of 1048.5 yuan/ton [90][91].

Core Insights - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Shinichi Uchida, highlighted that the uncertainty surrounding trade policies remains extremely high [1] - Maintaining an accommodative monetary policy is crucial to support the economy [1] Group 1 - The high level of uncertainty in trade policies could impact economic stability [1] - The Bank of Japan's commitment to a loose monetary policy indicates a proactive approach to economic support [1]

Core Viewpoint - The steepening of the yield curve is attributed to increasing uncertainty in trade policies [1] Group 1 - The Bank of England Governor Bailey highlighted that the reasons for the steepening yield curve reflect heightened uncertainty in trade policies [1]

此外，有关美国提早降息的说法正甚嚣尘上，美联储主席鲍威尔可能被替换、美联储官员组成可能重塑 的说法，让市场感到不安。 周二（7月22日）亚市早盘，现货白银自38.90美元附近高位回落，8月1日贸易谈判最后期限的临近为市 场注入了不确定性，这无疑对白银价格形成了支撑。美元和美债收益率的双双走低，为白银投资者创造 了有利的市场环境。 【要闻速递】 周一，美元指数下跌0.6%，使得以美元计价的白银对其他货币持有者更具吸引力。与此同时，10年期 美国公债收益率跌至逾一周低点4.348%，30年期收益率也回落至4.936%。美债收益率的下滑反映了市 场对美国经济前景和贸易政策的不确定性担忧，而这种不确定性为银价提供了上涨的"东风"。 白宫规定的8月1日关税截止日期迫在眉睫，这让投资者对美国与其三大贸易伙伴(包括欧盟、加拿大和 墨西哥)之间的贸易协议感到不安。 High Ridge Futures金属交易主任David Meger说："随着8月1日期限靠近，市场面临各种不确定性，这确 实对黄金带来支撑力。" 美国彭博社周一报道称，欧盟特使最早将于本周召开会议，针对可能与美国总统特朗普陷入的无协议局 面制定应对措施。 根据 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have surged, breaking the $3400 per ounce mark for the first time since June 17, driven by uncertainties surrounding Trump's trade policies and increasing demand for safe-haven assets [2][3] - Trump's announcement of high tariffs on multiple major economies, effective August 1, has contributed to market uncertainty, which is favorable for gold prices [3] - Speculation about an earlier-than-expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and potential changes in its leadership have heightened market anxiety, further supporting gold [3][4] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller's support for a July rate cut is based on rising economic risks and limited inflation impact from tariffs, which has kept the dollar below recent highs, thus supporting precious metals [4] - Market expectations suggest the Fed will remain inactive until September, with rate futures indicating a potential cumulative cut of 50 basis points by year-end [4] - Recent U.S. economic data, including a decline in the Conference Board's leading economic index and an unexpected rise in consumer confidence, may buffer the dollar's decline and influence gold prices [4] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices may face strong resistance in the $3365-$3366 range, and a breakthrough could signal bullish momentum towards the $3400 mark and further test the $3434-$3435 resistance area [4] - On the downside, initial support is seen in the $3325-$3322 range, with a potential deeper correction if prices fall below $3300, targeting the June swing low of $3248-$3247 [5]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to delay its final interest rate cut until December, with no immediate concerns about the market prematurely concluding the end of the easing cycle [1] - Most economists surveyed expect the deposit rate to be reduced by 25 basis points to 1.75% in September, but half believe that traders will not immediately conclude that rates have bottomed out even if the ECB maintains rates in the following meetings [3] - The uncertainty in trade policies is contributing to a longer "policy observation period," allowing the ECB more time to assess economic and inflation dynamics before making decisions [3] Group 2 - ECB President Christine Lagarde has indicated a preference for maintaining current policy stability in July to further observe economic and inflation trends [3] - There is a lack of consensus among ECB decision-makers regarding future policy directions, with some officials expressing caution about further rate cuts [3][4] - Concerns about inflation remaining below the 2% target, particularly with a strengthening euro, are prompting some officials to consider more accommodative policies to boost inflation [4] Group 3 - The internal divisions within the ECB reflect the complexities of formulating future policies, balancing economic growth resilience against the need to ensure inflation progresses towards targets [4] - Market participants are closely monitoring ECB actions, as predictions and statements from economists and officials will influence expectations for future interest rate movements and asset price fluctuations [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the US dollar may remain strong supported by high inflation and employment resilience, but in the medium - term, it is restricted by fiscal pressure and differences in the pace of interest rate cuts. The RMB fundamentals are still mild, but with narrowing interest rate spreads, stable settlement, and eased external expectations, the short - term exchange rate has a foundation for phased stability [57]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Quantity - Price and Policy Signals Quantity - Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3 - month USD/CNY option shows an appreciation trend of the RMB, with the put - end volatility higher than the call - end. The volatility of the USD/CNY option has declined, indicating that the market's expectation of future volatility of the USD/CNY has weakened [4]. - The term structure shows the changes in the premium and discount of the Singapore Exchange's USD/CNY futures, bank forward premium and discount, and the US - China interest rate spread over different time periods [8]. Policy Observation - The policy counter - cyclical factor has not been activated and shows a fluctuating trend. The three - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread fluctuates [10]. - Based on CFTC data (as of July 8), the report presents the total positions and speculative net long positions of various currency pairs such as GBP/USD, CAD/USD, EUR/USD, and JPY/USD [14][17]. 2. Fundamentals and Views Macro - Economic Situation - There are differences in the pricing of interest rate cuts between the US and Europe. The TGA account had a balance of $311 billion on July 9, and the Fed's reverse repurchase balance was $227.2 billion. Changing the Fed chairman is unlikely to significantly change the US monetary policy direction in the short term [23]. - The US economic downward risk is rising. Employment data is mixed, inflation is waiting for June CPI data, and the economy is showing marginal decline with falling fiscal expenditure, differentiated June economic sentiment, and pressured May retail sales [25]. Tariff Events - In the trade negotiations with the US among 17 key countries and regions, different situations are presented. For example, the UK - US agreement is in effect, the China - US is accelerating the implementation of the London framework results, the India - US is close to reaching a temporary trade agreement, etc. Trump extended the grace period for the equal - tariff to August 1, and the equal - tariff 2.0 phase has officially started, increasing global trade uncertainty [26]. The "Great Beautiful Act" in the US - The "Great Beautiful Act" became effective on July 4. It includes measures such as corporate and individual tax cuts, reduction of clean - energy subsidies, medical assistance, and the supplementary nutrition assistance program, and an increase in the debt ceiling. However, it may lead to problems such as fiscal front - loading, deterioration of income and welfare distribution, and increased inflation [30][32]. China's Economic Situation - China's economic structure is differentiated. In June, the pressure increased, with the growth rates of investment sub - items declining and retail sales also under pressure. June's export data exceeded expectations, with financial data improving, and the RMB showing resilience in the face of trade policy uncertainties [33][42]. Comprehensive Rectification of "Involution - style" Competition - The government is promoting the in - depth construction of a unified national market, including requirements such as "five unifications and one opening". Industries such as steel, refining, and photovoltaic are the focus of rectification, with measures including curbing low - price disorderly competition and promoting the exit of backward production capacity [44]. Trade Policy Uncertainty - In 2025, Sino - US tariff frictions have recurred. Although a suspension agreement was reached in May, there may be further fluctuations. The export structure has changed, with emerging markets supporting overall exports. The RMB has shown resilience and is less affected by tariff policies, and the marginal impact of trade uncertainty on the exchange rate will continue to weaken [53]. Overall Views - Currently, the economic expectation difference between China and the US is neutral, the interest rate spread is neutral, and trade policy uncertainty is also neutral. In the short - term, the US dollar may remain strong, while the RMB has a foundation for phased stability [57]. Risk Assessment - From the historical data from April 2022 to the present (nearly 3 years), the range of the premium and discount of the futures main contract is between - 1100 and 900 [58].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed resilience with a three-day upward trend, closing at 24,203 points, up 63 points or 0.3% [2] - The main board turnover was HKD 210.4 billion, a decrease of 35.1% from the previous day's high of HKD 324 billion [2] - Northbound trading maintained a net inflow status, with a significant increase of 372.7% in net inflow to HKD 8.243 billion [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The social financing data released by the People's Bank of China for the first half of 2025 exceeded expectations, with a total increase of CNY 22.8 trillion, a year-on-year growth of 26.2% [4] - New RMB loans amounted to CNY 12.9 trillion, indicating reasonable growth in financial volume and a continuous decline in financing costs [4] - Despite strong overall data, some monthly credit data showed weakness, reflecting uncertainty in corporate expectations [4] Group 3: Company Analysis - Tmall (6110.HK) - Tmall reported a revenue decline of 6.6% year-on-year to HKD 27.01 billion, primarily due to weak offline consumption and reduced foot traffic [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 41.9% to HKD 1.29 billion, with the decline in profit outpacing revenue due to high fixed costs [6] - The company maintained a high dividend payout ratio of 135%, distributing a final dividend of HKD 0.02 per share and a special dividend of HKD 0.12 per share, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [6] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - Tmall is optimizing its store structure, reducing the number of direct-operated stores by 18.3% to 5,020, while focusing on improving operational efficiency [7] - The company is expanding its brand partnerships, including collaborations with high-end running brands, to diversify its brand matrix [7] - Future performance is expected to improve as retail consumption conditions recover, with projected EPS for FY26/27/28 at HKD 0.21/0.22/0.23, and a target price of HKD 3.6 based on a 16x PE for FY26 [7]

Group 1 - The new export orders index has dropped to 97.9, indicating a contraction and suggesting a slowdown in trade growth later this year [1][3] - Global trade is expected to face increasing resistance in the second half of 2025 due to rising uncertainties and trade restrictions, despite strong growth in the first half [1][6] - The World Bank has revised its forecast for global trade growth in 2025 down to approximately 1.8%, a significant decrease from earlier predictions [6][9] Group 2 - The WTO's global merchandise trade index rose from 102.8 in March to 103.5, indicating ongoing growth, but the weak export orders signal that this momentum may not be sustainable [3][6] - The UNCTAD report anticipates a $300 billion increase in global trade this year, but warns of significant challenges in the latter half due to U.S. trade policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [6][8] - The U.S. trade deficit has been widening over the past four quarters, exacerbating global trade imbalances [8][9] Group 3 - The World Bank's data shows a notable reduction in trade growth forecasts, particularly for developed economies, which are expected to see trade growth at about half of previous estimates [7][9] - The rise in tariffs and trade restrictions has led to a historical peak in trade policy uncertainty, impacting global trade dynamics [6][10] - Companies are currently hesitant to make investment decisions due to the unpredictable nature of trade policies, leading to a wait-and-see approach [10]

Core Viewpoint - The current gold market is influenced by multiple factors including geopolitical risks, trade policy uncertainties, and central bank activities, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - Trade policy uncertainties have escalated as the Trump administration announced tariffs of 25%-40% on imports from 14 countries, impacting global supply chains, particularly in electronics and automotive sectors, which boosts market risk aversion and supports gold prices [3] - Ongoing geopolitical risks are highlighted by recent attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, leading to a surge in war insurance premiums and potential GDP declines, further enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4] - Diverging expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies are noted, with market anticipation of interest rate cuts despite the Fed's current stance, creating a complex environment for the dollar and providing potential support for gold [5] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The gold price is currently fluctuating within the range of $3280 to $3345 per ounce, with key resistance at $3345 and support at $3280, indicating a potential for upward movement if resistance is broken [9] - Short-term bullish momentum is indicated by the hourly chart, where gold has returned above moving averages, suggesting a possible upward trend if it maintains above $3310 [11] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - Short-term trading is dominated by risk aversion driven by trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts, and uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policies, leading to increased safe-haven buying of gold [13] - Institutional investment continues to flow into gold, with central banks increasing their gold reserves, indicating a shift from short-term hedging to long-term strategic allocation [15]