以下文章来源于广发期货研究 ，作者研究所 广发期货研究 . 推送广发期货研究所的最新报告和观点 文 | 朱迪 王泽辉 来源 | 广发期货研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 摘要 本次调研时间为5月下旬，走访了广西南宁、防城港、钦州、北海等地，涉及企业包括上游油厂及中游贸易商，主要为了探究当地及全国范围 内油脂油料市场的供需环境，及贸易政策不确定环境下，上中下游的采购、销售及备货节奏。 01 广西油脂油料市场总结 1.2油料市场情况 从本次调研情况来看，未来进口菜籽供应整体偏紧，目前油厂买船积极性差，受贸易关税相关政策影响，工厂担忧未来政策变化，谨 慎采购，少量的几条船均来自加拿大，暂未启动其他国家的菜籽采购。但国内进口颗粒粕库存相对充裕，预计3季度市场菜粕供应宽 松。8、9、10月菜粕将迎来水产旺季，或会有一波库存消化驱动，目前终端提货尚可，叠加4、5月豆粕基差高位，菜粕替代增加， 油厂菜粕库存目前偏低。而考虑到未来菜籽供应趋紧，油厂卖货并不激进，低价有挺价情绪。 巴西大豆目前陆陆续续到港中，但因前期到港衔接不佳及通关限制，油厂开机持续低位，豆粕建库过程缓慢。短期豆粕库存压力不 大，按照目前到货节奏 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, acknowledges progress made by G7 colleagues in combating inflation but highlights new challenges such as increased uncertainty in trade policies and more frequent supply-side shocks [1] Group 1 - The G7 colleagues feel relieved about the progress against inflation [1] - New challenges include heightened uncertainty in trade policies [1] - There is a need to address more frequent supply-side shocks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's tariff policy is significantly impacting various aspects of American society, particularly affecting consumer prices and the availability of essential goods [1][9]. Group 1: Impact on Consumers - Many household products, including utensils and appliances, are manufactured in China, leading to potential price increases for consumers due to tariffs [1][3][5]. - The imposition of tariffs may result in shortages of essential items, making it difficult for consumers to find alternatives produced domestically [9]. Group 2: Investment Climate - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies is causing hesitation among investors, as they are wary of making long-term commitments in the face of unpredictable regulatory changes [11]. - The need for significant capital investment, such as $100 million for a factory, is compounded by the fear of sudden policy shifts, discouraging new manufacturing ventures in the U.S. [11]. - Importers are rushing to stockpile Chinese goods before a temporary suspension of tariffs, indicating a reactive rather than proactive investment strategy [11].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The international gold market is experiencing fluctuations, with current trading around $3233, down approximately $10 from the previous closing price [2] - The geopolitical landscape and uncertainty in the global economy are influencing gold prices, with significant attention on the U.S. tax reform debate led by President Trump [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is in a consolidation phase, with resistance at $3250 and support around $3200, suggesting potential for further adjustments [4][2] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - The oil market opened the week with a slight upward trend, with Brent crude oil futures rising to $65.54 per barrel and U.S. crude oil futures to $62.69, both showing over 1% gains from the previous week [5] - Geopolitical factors, particularly tensions between the U.S. and Iran regarding nuclear negotiations, are driving oil prices higher, although market sentiment remains fragile due to economic slowdown concerns [5] - Technical analysis suggests that oil prices are under medium-term downward pressure, with potential support at $61 and resistance at $63.5 to $64 [6][5]

文章来源：公众号喵姐交易日记 周二(5月20日)，美元指数在100.43徘徊，黄金回落3221美元，比特币再次反弹突破105000美元。华尔街最大巨鲸Strategy公司和日本投资公司Metaplanet相 继公布增持比特币的利多！美联储强调观望立场，夏季降息可能性降低。白宫顾问凯文·哈塞特暗示，将达成更多双边贸易协议。 比特币短期不确定性未阻止长期买家增持比特币，Strategy公司(前身为MicroStrategy)宣布以约103500美元的平均价格 购买7390枚比特币，使其总持仓量 达到576230枚比特币。 Strategy报告称，今年迄今为止的比特币收益率为16.3%。根据总持仓量表现，平均每枚比特币价格为69726美元。按当前价格计算，该公司持有的比特币 总价值超过592亿美元，未实现收益为192亿美元，占比47%。 同时，日本投资公司Metaplanet周初表示，其收购了1004枚比特币，使其总数达到7800枚比特币。 | Number of Bitcoin Purchased: | 1.004 Bitcoir | | --- | --- | | Average Purchase Price: ...

金十数据5月16日讯，密歇根大学消费者调查主任Joanne Hsu表示，消费者信心指数本月基本持平，在 连续四个月大幅下滑后，仅微跌1.4点。自2025年1月以来，市场信心下降了近30%。近四分之三的消费 者自发提到了关税，高于4月份的近60%；贸易政策的不确定性继续主导着消费者对经济的看法。此次 调查是在4月22日至5月13日期间进行的，在中美双双宣布暂停征收部分关税的两天后结束。在暂时降低 关税后，许多调查指标显示出一些改善迹象，但这些最初的好转幅度太小，不足以改变整体形势——消 费者继续对经济持悲观看法。到目前为止，最初的反应与4月9日部分暂停关税后的情绪小幅上升相呼 应，尽管情绪继续呈下降趋势。 5月美国消费者信心微跌，此前连续四个月大幅下跌 ...

Core Insights - The warning from Federal Reserve official Barr highlights the potential economic slowdown and rising inflation due to supply chain disruptions related to tariffs [1][4][7] - Small businesses play a crucial role in the supply chain and overall economy, but they are particularly vulnerable to disruptions due to limited resources and access to credit [3][5][6] Supply Chain Disruption Risks - Supply chain disruptions can lead to raw material shortages, production delays, and increased costs, significantly impacting profitability, especially for small businesses [3][4] - Small businesses are more susceptible to these challenges due to their limited financial resources and reliance on a narrow supplier and customer network [5][6] Economic Growth and Inflation Pressures - Supply chain disruptions may result in a dual pressure of slowing economic growth and rising inflation, posing significant challenges to the U.S. economy [4][6] - Rising costs from supply chain issues could be passed on to consumers, increasing price levels and potentially leading to reduced production or layoffs [4][6] Importance and Vulnerability of Small Businesses - Small businesses are essential for providing specialized inputs that are not easily sourced elsewhere, making their stable operation vital for supply chain integrity [5][6] - The limited access to credit for small businesses further restricts their ability to navigate crises, increasing the risk of closures and further supply chain disruptions [6] Uncertainty in Trade Policy - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies increases operational costs and unpredictability for businesses, complicating long-term production and investment planning [7] - This uncertainty may lead to delayed investments and hiring, negatively affecting economic growth and stability [7]

The RBA Observer Multi-Asset Expect a 25bp cut in May Global backdrop plays a bigger role Paul Bloxham Chief Economist, Australia, New Zealand & Global Commodities HSBC Bank Australia Limited paulbloxham@hsbc.com.au +61 2 9255 2635 Jamie Culling Since the RBA's board last met, the global economy and financial markets have had tumultuous times. The cause has been the 'Liberation Day' trade policy shock on 2 April, and the almost daily shifts in the global trade policy environment since then. As we see it, th ...

日本央行审议委员中村豊明：各司法管辖区的贸易及其他政策的走向极不确定，海外经济活动和物价将 如何对这些政策作出反应仍难以预料。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are expected to rise significantly, potentially reaching $6,000 in the next four to five years due to macroeconomic uncertainties and changing investor sentiment towards U.S. assets [1][2] - Commodity strategist Natasha Kaneva suggests that gold prices could increase by 80% from the current level of $3,333 to reach the $6,000 target [1] - The potential for gold price increase is supported by the idea that if global institutional investors reallocate just 0.5% of their U.S. overseas assets to gold, it could drive prices to $6,000 by 2029 [1] Group 2 - Gold currently represents only 4.0% of global asset portfolios, but limited supply growth means even minor reallocations could significantly impact prices [2] - The rising interest in gold is attributed to its reputation as a "store of value," especially during economic downturns and financial uncertainties expected in 2025 [2] - Recent trends show that gold prices have been on an upward trajectory, which is likely to continue given the economic challenges anticipated in the near future [2]