Group 1: Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are likely to show a mainly oscillating and slightly strengthening trend. There are limited arbitrage opportunities for Shanghai copper. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for options contracts [4][45]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract CU2601 of Shanghai copper futures showed a mainly oscillating and slightly strengthening trend, ranging from around 90,700 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 94,570 yuan/ton [8]. - Last week, the LME copper futures price showed an oscillating and slightly strengthening trend, with the contract price running around 11,434 - 11,952 US dollars/ton [11]. 2. Macroeconomic Aspect - In November 2025, the national consumer price increased by 0.7% year - on - year. From January to November, the average national consumer price was flat compared with the same period of the previous year. In November, the national consumer price decreased by 0.1% month - on - month [3][14][44]. 3. Spot Analysis - As of December 12, 2025, the average price of Shanghai Wumaotong was 93,830 yuan/ton, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 93,970 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,020 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, Chongqing, and Tianjin were 92,820 yuan/ton, 92,860 yuan/ton, 92,970 yuan/ton, and 92,910 yuan/ton respectively. The current average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [17]. - As of December 12, 2025, the electrolytic copper premium was maintained at around a decrease of 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The current spot premium is at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [17]. 4. Supply and Demand Situation - As of December 11, 2025, the rough smelting fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 43.03 US dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 4.38 US cents/pound. As of December 12, 2025, the refined copper price in Shanghai Wumao was 93,830 yuan/ton, and the scrap copper price in Foshan, Guangdong was 83,600 yuan/ton, with a refined - scrap price difference of 1,870 yuan/ton. The current refined - scrap price difference is at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [24]. 5. Inventory Situation - As of December 12, 2025, the cathode copper inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 89,389 tons, an increase of 484 tons compared with the previous week [31]. - As of December 10, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 164,975 tons, a decrease of 700 tons compared with the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 40.4% [31]. - As of December 11, 2025, the COMEX copper inventory was 447,298 tons, an increase of 2,132 tons compared with the previous trading day [31]. - As of December 11, 2025, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 100,500 tons, the inventory in Guangdong was 14,900 tons, and the inventory in Wuxi was 35,700 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone increased by 600 tons compared with the previous week [31]. 6. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - The copper processing fee continues the downward trend and is still at an extremely low level. The refined - scrap copper price difference continues to expand, and the scrap copper price rises relatively slowly. The Shanghai copper inventory has a slight increase, and the inventory level is at a relatively high position in recent years. The COMEX copper inventory continues to increase significantly [3][44]. 7. Market Outlook - Copper prices are likely to show a mainly oscillating and slightly strengthening trend. There are limited arbitrage opportunities for Shanghai copper. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for options contracts [4][45].

本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周小结：宏观情绪改善，看好铜价继续上行 截至2025年12月12日，SHFE铜收盘价94080 元/吨，环比12月5日+1.40%；LME铜收盘价11553 美元/吨， 环比12月5日-0.96%。（1）宏观：美联储12月如期降息；国内中央经济工作会议强调明年政策"坚持稳中 求进、提质增效"，提出优化"两新"（大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新）政策，整体利好铜消费。（2） 供需：线缆企业开工率在铜价大涨后本周略有回落，但Q4电网旺季效应仍存；2025Q4空调排产同比下 降，但环比改善；供需仍将维持偏紧格局，继续看好铜价上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比+2.6%，LME铜库存环比+0.8% 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： （1）港口铜精矿库存：截至2025年12月 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. Core Views - The macroeconomic sentiment has improved, leading to a positive outlook for copper prices. As of December 12, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 94,080 RMB/ton, up 1.40% from December 5, while LME copper closed at 11,553 USD/ton, down 0.96% [1]. - The supply-demand dynamics remain tight, with expectations for continued upward movement in copper prices due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. Supply and Demand Summary - **Supply**: Domestic copper concentrate production in October 2025 was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and down 12.1% year-on-year. The TC spot price as of December 12, 2025, was -43.33 USD/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.3 USD/ton from December 5, 2025 [3][60]. - **Demand**: The cable industry, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw a slight decrease in operating rates to 66.31%, down 0.81 percentage points week-on-week. Air conditioning production is expected to decline year-on-year by 22% in December 2025, but improve by 14% in January 2026 [3][91]. Inventory Summary - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 2.6% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 0.8%. As of December 12, 2025, COMEX copper inventory reached a historical high of 451,000 tons, up 3.2% from December 5, 2025 [2][26]. Futures Market Summary - The active SHFE copper contract saw a significant decrease in open interest, down 18% to 189,000 lots as of December 12, 2025, which is at the 52nd percentile since 1995 [4][34]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends increasing positions in Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining, while also monitoring Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term bullish sentiment for copper has cooled, but the support remains strong. Although the copper valuation is relatively neutral, considering the Fed's interest - rate cut and the positive policy tone of the domestic Central Economic Work Conference, the overall sentiment is not pessimistic. The copper ore supply remains tight, and the pressure of refined copper surplus is not significant. It is expected that the risk of continuous decline in copper prices is small, and the prices may gradually turn into a volatile trend. The operating range of SHFE copper main contract is expected to be 90,000 - 94,500 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is expected to be 11,200 - 12,000 US dollars/ton [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The spot processing fee of copper concentrate has declined, while the processing fee of blister copper has increased month - on - month. The supply of scrap materials is relatively loose. As of the end of November, the Kuth Copper refinery under India's Adani Group is facing a serious raw material shortage crisis, with the actual arrival of copper concentrate less than 10% of the demand [11]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges has increased by 11,000 tons month - on - month. The inventory of SHFE has slightly increased by 500 tons to 89,000 tons, the inventory of LME has increased by 1,000 tons to 166,000 tons, and the inventory of COMEX has increased by 10,000 tons to 405,000 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area is 101,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons month - on - month. The spot in Shanghai, China on Friday was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures, and the LME market's Cash/3M was at a premium of 20.7 US dollars/ton [11]. - **Imports and Exports**: The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper has slightly widened, and the Yangshan copper premium has remained stable. In November 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 19.3%. The cumulative imports from January to November were 4.907 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.67% [11]. - **Demand**: Due to the high copper prices, the spot market trading has been sluggish. The refined copper rod enterprises have strictly controlled the production rhythm, and the operating rate has declined. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference has first narrowed and then widened, the substitution advantage of scrap copper has increased, and the operating rate of downstream scrap copper rod enterprises has rebounded from a low level [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: Copper prices have risen and then fallen. The SHFE copper main contract has increased by 1.40% week - on - week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper has decreased by 2.37% to 11,552.5 US dollars/ton [20]. - **Spot Prices**: The domestic copper prices have strengthened. On Friday, the copper spot in East China was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures. The LME inventory has increased, the proportion of cancelled warrants has risen, and the Cash/3M has remained at a premium, reporting a premium of 20.7 US dollars/ton on Friday. Last week, the spot import of domestic electrolytic copper remained at a loss, and the Yangshan copper premium has remained stable [25]. - **Structure**: The Back structure of SHFE copper has shrunk, while the LME copper has maintained the Back structure [28] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The spot rough - smelting fee TC for imported copper concentrate has declined to - 43.08 US dollars/ton. The sulfuric acid price in East China has continued to rise, which still has a positive impact on copper smelting revenue [33]. - **Imports and Exports Ratio**: The spot import loss of copper has slightly widened [38]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 661,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons month - on - month. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area is 101,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons month - on - month. The increase in SHFE inventory comes from Jiangsu and Guangdong, while the inventory in Shanghai has decreased. The number of copper warrants has increased by 1,102 to 32,563 tons. The LME inventory has increased, with the increase coming from Asian warehouses and a decrease in European inventory. The proportion of cancelled warrants has risen [41][44][47] 3.4 Supply Side - **Production**: In November 2025, China's refined copper production has increased by about 10,000 tons month - on - month, and it is expected to increase significantly in December. In October 2025, the domestic refined copper production was 1.204 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.98%, and the cumulative production from January to October was 12.295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.70% [51]. - **Imports and Exports**: In November 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.526 million tons, a rebound from the previous month. The cumulative imports from January to November were 27.614 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. In November 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 19.3%. In October, China's refined copper imports were 323,000 tons, and the net imports were 257,000 tons. The proportion of imports from Russia, Chile, Australia, Kazakhstan, South Korea, and Morocco has increased, while the proportion of imports from Myanmar, Japan, etc. has decreased. In October, China's exports of refined copper were 66,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons month - on - month. The import of recycled copper in October was 197,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% [54][57][63] 3.5 Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: Globally, the consumption of electrolytic copper is mainly in the power sector (46%), followed by household appliances (15%), transportation (11%), etc. In China, the consumption is mainly in equipment (32%) and construction (26%) [72] - **Downstream Industry Output**: In October, the output of freezers among copper downstream industries has increased year - on - year, while the output of refrigerators, air conditioners, automobiles, color TVs, AC motors, and power generation equipment has decreased year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative output of automobiles, color TVs, and AC motors has increased year - on - year, while the cumulative output of freezers, power generation equipment, air conditioners, washing machines, and refrigerators has decreased [78] - **Downstream Enterprise Operating Rates**: In November, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises has recovered, and it is expected to slightly decline in December; the operating rate of scrap copper rod enterprises has decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline in December. The operating rate of enameled wire enterprises has rebounded, and it is expected to slightly improve in December; the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises has increased better than expected, and it is expected to continue to rise in December. The operating rate of copper tube enterprises has recovered, and it is expected to continue to rise in December; the operating rate of brass rod enterprises has increased, and it is expected to slightly strengthen in December. The operating rate of copper plate and strip enterprises has rebounded, and it is expected to increase in December; the operating rate of copper foil enterprises has increased, and it is expected to continue to rise in December. This week, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises has declined, while the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises has rebounded [83][86][89][92][95] - **Refined - Scrap Price Difference**: The domestic refined - scrap price difference has narrowed, and the refined - scrap price difference was reported at 4,797 yuan/ton on Friday [102] 3.6 Capital Side - **SHFE Copper Position**: The total position of SHFE copper has decreased by 13,496 to 1,293,826 lots (bilateral), among which the position of the near - month 2512 contract is 10,820 lots (bilateral) [107] - **Foreign Fund Position**: As of November 10, the CFTC fund position has maintained a net long position, with a net long ratio of 16.6%. The proportion of net long positions of LME investment funds has slightly increased (as of December 5) [110]

研究所 铜价强势难挡 谨防短期冲高回落风险 ——国信期货有色（铜）周报 2025年12月12日 3 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 1 行情回顾 2 基本面分析 研究所 P 第 a 一 r 部 t 分 1 行情回顾 盘面行情回顾：沪铜震荡偏强 研究所 12月8日-12月12日，沪铜震荡偏强，收于94080元/吨，较12月12日上涨1.4%。LME铜震荡偏强，截至12月12日下午收盘，报 11898美元/吨。 数据来源：博易云、国信期货 沪铜主力合约日K线图 LME铜日K线图 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 研究所 P 第 a 二 r 部 t 分 2 基本面分析 现货市场 研究所 数据来源：SMM、国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 6 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 7 数据来源：SMM、国信期货 铜精矿供应 研究所 期货市场 研究所 数据来源：SMM、国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 8 铜精矿及粗铜加工费 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 9 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，11月中国制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.2%，较上月回升0.2个百分点，仍处于收缩区间但显现边际改善；中性。 2、基差：现货91620，基差-230，贴水期货； 中性。 3、库存：12月10日铜库存减700至164975吨，上期所铜库存较上周减9025吨至88905吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空增；偏空。 6、预期：库存回升，地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价再次创出历史新高， 高位运行 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 每日观点 铜: 全球政策 ...

Group 1: Copper Price Trends - Copper prices have shown strong performance this year, with significant fluctuations influenced by macroeconomic factors, particularly U.S. tariff policies [1] - The first quarter saw an initial price increase, followed by a more pronounced rise in mid-April, culminating in accelerated growth by year-end [1] - Despite macroeconomic disturbances, the market's perception of copper's financial attributes has been evident, particularly in response to U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [1] Group 2: Supply Constraints - Copper concentrate supply is expected to remain tight in 2025, with negative processing fees reported since late January, reaching -40 USD/ton by April [2] - Operational instability in overseas mines, such as the earthquake in Chile affecting Codelco's El Teniente mine, has contributed to reduced production forecasts from several mining companies [2] - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies in China may further restrict copper concentrate supply, especially if smelter by-product prices weaken [2] Group 3: End-User Demand - Domestic cable manufacturers have shown varied production patterns, with limited seasonal demand for copper, primarily maintaining a just-in-time procurement approach [3] - The air conditioning sector has benefited from a trade-in policy, leading to increased production in the first quarter compared to previous years [3] - The automotive industry, particularly in the electric vehicle segment, is expected to continue its rapid growth, providing strong support for copper demand [3][4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with stable growth anticipated in copper demand for electricity, although a decline is expected in the air conditioning sector [4] - The automotive industry, especially in the context of electric vehicles, is projected to remain a significant driver of copper demand [4] - Overall, copper prices are expected to experience a volatile trend, with initial increases followed by potential declines [5]

Group 1 - The core factor driving the rise in copper prices is the continued tightness in supply, with several mining companies lowering their mid-term production forecasts and a significant number of cancellation requests for LME warehouse receipts [2] - The demand side is also strong, with steady growth in the rigid demand for copper from sectors such as electric vehicles, power grid construction, and AI data centers [2] - Institutions maintain an optimistic outlook for copper prices in the medium to long term, with expectations of new highs in 2026 due to ongoing U.S. interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar benefiting copper prices [2][3] Group 2 - The copper industry has seen active performance in related A-share sectors, with notable increases in stock prices for companies like Shengton Mining (up 17.36%) and Jiangxi Copper (up 13.96%) since November 28 [1] - The global copper supply is expected to face a structural shortage in the long term, with an estimated supply gap of 150,000 tons by 2026 due to limited new copper mining capacity [3] - The increasing power demand from AI data centers is projected to significantly boost copper demand over the next decade, contributing to stable and rapid growth in the industry [3]

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices have retreated from record highs as market participants focus on the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision and tightening supply outlook [1] Group 1: Copper Market Overview - The Shanghai copper main contract fell by 0.58% to 91,900 yuan per ton, while three-month copper dropped by 0.54% to $11,572.50 per ton [1] - Year-to-date, Shanghai copper has increased by 25%, and London copper has risen over 30% [1] - Analysts from Sucden Financial expect copper prices to experience significant increases followed by minor corrections due to limited selling interest at current levels [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Concerns about supply persist due to mine disruptions and increasing copper inventories flowing into the U.S. [1] - Comex copper inventories rose to 439,510 short tons on Monday [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts strong growth in demand for energy storage systems and data centers will support copper prices, predicting an average price of $12,780 per ton next year [1] Group 3: Other Base Metals - Other base metals saw varied performance: three-month aluminum fell by 0.54%, zinc by 0.42%, lead by 0.10%, while nickel rose by 0.24%, and tin remained largely unchanged [1]

Group 1 - Hong Kong copper stocks experienced significant declines, with Jiangxi Copper falling nearly 7%, China Nonferrous Mining down 6.4%, China Daye Nonferrous Metals dropping 5.8%, and Minmetals Resources decreasing by 5.5% [1] - Goldman Sachs introduced a cautious sentiment regarding the optimistic discussions surrounding copper's outlook, stating that the surge in copper prices above $11,000 per ton will be temporary due to ample global supply [1] - Analysts, including Aurelia Worsham, noted that the recent rise in copper prices is primarily based on expectations of future market tightness rather than current fundamentals, predicting that the current breakout above $11,000 will not be sustained [1] Group 2 - Demand for copper in China, a key market, has significantly declined in recent months, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a nearly 8% year-on-year decrease in China's copper consumption for Q4 this year, followed by an expected growth of 2.8% next year [1]