Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have recently experienced fluctuations, reaching a new high, with LME copper prices nearing $10,200 per ton and Shanghai copper futures hitting 81,530 yuan per ton, the highest since late March this year, before retreating for adjustments [1] Market Analysis - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve marks the first reduction of the year, aligning with market expectations, leading to a short-term market condition where bullish sentiment may have peaked, suggesting that copper prices could remain in a range-bound fluctuation [1] - Despite the short-term adjustments, macroeconomic and industrial factors continue to support copper prices, indicating potential for long-term upward movement [1] Supply and Demand Factors - Long-term copper prices are significantly influenced by mining sector factors, highlighting the importance of monitoring changes in supply and demand dynamics as well as the global economic situation's impact on copper demand [1]

Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The current copper price is at a high level in the past year, and the market is cautious due to the upcoming Fed interest rate meeting. After the expected 25BP interest rate cut is implemented, copper prices are expected to continue to strengthen. Although the downstream's ability to absorb the current copper price is average, there is still restocking demand before the double festivals, which provides support for the demand side [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The Shanghai copper price rose first and then fell. The main contract reached a maximum of 81,530. The spot copper price increased by 180 to 81,120, and the spot premium decreased by 5 to 75. The loss of spot imports widened to 230. The LME0 - 3 contango remained around 62, and the premiums of Yangshan copper warehouse receipts and bills of lading both decreased slightly [10]. 3.2行业要闻 - Anglo American and Codelco plan to jointly mine adjacent copper mines in Chile. Once the relevant licenses are in place, it will increase copper production by 2.7 million tons in 21 years, starting in 2030. The expected annual additional copper production is 120,000 tons, with a 15% reduction in unit cost compared to independent operation, and a minimum increase in capital expenditure. The transaction is expected to generate a pre - tax net present value increase of at least $5 billion, shared equally by both parties [11]. - Canadian Prime Minister Carney told Anglo American that if it wants to merge with Teck Resources, it needs to move its headquarters to Canada [11]. - Chile's state - owned mining agency ENAMI's $1.7 billion smelter modernization project has attracted 15 institutions to express investment intentions. The Hernan Videla - Lira smelter in the Atacama region is being renovated, which will enable it to process 850,000 tons of copper concentrate and produce 240,000 tons of cathode copper annually. The deadline for initial bids is the end of October [11][12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The fundamentals of copper are neutral, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being loosened. In August, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, showing improved business sentiment. The basis is neutral, with the spot price at 80960 and a basis of 20, indicating a premium over the futures. Inventory data presents a mixed picture, with copper inventories decreasing by 1325 to 152625 tons on September 15 and SHFE copper inventories increasing by 12203 tons to 94054 tons compared to last week. The market is biased towards the long side, as the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is trending upwards, and the net long position of the main players is increasing. Given the inventory increase and geopolitical disturbances, and awaiting the consumption guidance in the peak season of September, the copper price is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend as the current long - short contradictions are not prominent [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals are neutral due to smelting production cuts and scrap copper policy changes, along with an improved manufacturing PMI in August [2]. - The basis is neutral with a spot premium over the futures [2]. - Inventory data shows a mixed situation, with a daily decrease and a weekly increase [2]. - The market is bullish based on the price - moving average relationship and the main players' net long position [2]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, pending September's peak - season consumption data [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves global policy easing and trade - war escalation, but specific details of利多 and利空 are not elaborated [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is expected to be in a tight balance [21]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 to 2024, with varying production, import, export, and consumption figures [23]. Other Information - The source of data is Wind [10][14] - The SHFE warehouse receipt inventory and LME inventory are involved in the inventory section, and the bonded - area inventory is rising from a low level [15] - The processing fee is decreasing [17] - CFTC - related content is mentioned, but no details are provided [19]

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic sentiment is improving, and supply-demand conditions are tightening, leading to an expected rise in copper prices [4]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - As of September 12, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 81,060 CNY/ton, up 1.15% from September 5, while LME copper closed at 10,068 USD/ton, up 1.72% [4]. - The U.S. August CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with the market anticipating a 100% probability of a rate cut in September, contributing to a weaker dollar index [4]. Group 2: Supply and Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 2.6%, while LME copper inventory decreased by 1.2% [5]. - As of September 12, 2025, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory stood at 693,000 tons, up 0.6% week-on-week [5]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 543,000 tons as of September 8, 2025, up 5.1% week-on-week [5]. Group 3: Raw Materials - In August 2025, domestic waste copper production decreased by 5% month-on-month but increased by 16% year-on-year [6]. - China's copper concentrate production in May 2025 was 158,000 tons, up 22.7% month-on-month and 11.2% year-on-year [6]. Group 4: Smelting and Processing - In August 2025, SMM China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, down 0.2% month-on-month but up 15.6% year-on-year [7]. - The TC spot price as of September 12, 2025, was -41.42 USD/ton, down 0.9 USD/ton from September 5, remaining at a low level since September 2007 [7]. Group 5: Demand - The cable industry accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with the operating rate for cable enterprises at 67.62%, up 0.87 percentage points week-on-week [9]. - Air conditioning accounts for about 13% of domestic copper demand, with production expected to decline by 12%, 22.6%, and 19.7% year-on-year from September to November [9]. Group 6: Futures Market - As of September 12, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 5% week-on-week, with a total of 187,000 contracts [9]. - COMEX non-commercial net long positions increased by 6% week-on-week, totaling 27,000 contracts as of September 9, 2025 [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro aspect: The recent US CPI and PPI data are within market expectations, having no significant impact on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. However, the US employment market data is below expectations, showing weakness. The market has priced in three interest - rate cuts totaling 75 basis points this year. The weakening US dollar under the interest - rate cut expectations supports the upward movement of copper prices [2][5]. - Supply aspect: As of September 12, 2025, the inventory of imported copper concentrates at 16 Chinese ports was 574,000 tons, up 14,000 tons from the previous week. The TC/RC fees remained weakly stable. Factory maintenance in September and October will reduce production, and small and medium - sized smelters are under profit pressure. The supply of refined copper will remain tight. In August, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month but up 15.59% year - on - year. Due to policy and smelter maintenance, September's electrolytic copper production is expected to drop significantly [2][5]. - Demand aspect: As of July 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3745 million tons, at a high level for the same period in history. As the peak season approaches, the downstream trading atmosphere has improved despite price increases, but the realization of peak - season demand remains to be seen. The SHFE copper inventory has slightly increased, and high prices are suppressing demand, starting a inventory - building trend [2][5]. - Overall view: This week, the Fed's increasing interest - rate cut expectations are weakening the US dollar and pushing up copper prices. Fundamentally, domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly, supporting copper prices. The demand side is optimistic about the peak season, and downstream purchasing has improved. Copper prices are likely to rise and are less likely to fall. Attention should be paid to the actual situation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The US August CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month, slightly exceeding expectations, and 2.9% year - on - year. The core CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month and 3.1% year - on - year, in line with expectations. - The US August PPI rose 2.6% year - on - year, lower than expected, and fell 0.1% month - on - month, also below expectations. - The US initial jobless claims reached 263,000, the highest since October 2021, indicating a weakening employment market [11]. 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated strongly. The highest price was 81,190 yuan/ton, the lowest was 79,400 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 2.23%, and the interval increase was 1.15% [14]. 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of September 15, the average spot premium in East China was 95 yuan/ton, and in South China it was 25 yuan/ton. With more imported and domestic copper supplies, high prices reduced market purchases, putting pressure on spot premiums [19]. 3.4 LME Copper Spread Structure - As of September 15, the weekly change rate of LME copper was 1.22%, closing at $10,068/ton. The LME copper spot discount strengthened slightly. The increasing Fed interest - rate cut expectations supported the rise of LME copper [24]. 3.5 Copper Concentrate Supply - In July 2025, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, up 18.24% year - on - year and 8.94% month - on - month. From January to July, the cumulative import was 17.314 million tons, up 8.0% year - on - year. As of September 12, the inventory at 16 Chinese ports was 574,000 tons, up 14,000 tons from the previous week. - On September 8, 2025, an accident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia suspended all operations [29]. 3.6 Smelter Fees - As of September 12, the spot TC was - $41.42/tonne dry, and the RC was - 4.16 cents/lb, remaining weakly stable. The mid - year long - term contract negotiation set TC/RC at $0/tonne dry and 0 cents/lb. High sulfuric acid prices support smelter profits, but seasonal maintenance in September and October will reduce production, and small and medium - sized smelters are under profit pressure, with tight refined copper supply expected [33]. 3.7 Refined Copper Supply - In August, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month but up 15.59% year - on - year. Due to policy and maintenance, September's production is expected to drop by 52,500 tons to 1.119 million tons, with the year - on - year growth rate dropping to 11.42%. - In August 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 425,000 tons, down from the previous month but up 2.4% year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative import was 3.536 million tons, down 2.1% year - on - year [37]. 3.8 Scrap Copper Supply - German officials called on Europe to stop the large - scale flow of scrap copper to China. In 2025, 23.18% of China's scrap copper imports from January to July were from Europe, and the new policy will reduce imports from Europe. - In July 2025, scrap copper imports were 190,100 tons, higher than expected, but imports from the US decreased due to tariffs, and scrap copper resources in other regions were also tight [42]. 3.9 Apparent Demand - As of July 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3745 million tons, at a high level for the same period in history. As the peak season approaches, the downstream trading atmosphere has improved despite price increases, but the realization of peak - season demand remains to be seen [47]. 3.10 Copper Products - In August 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rods was 63.02%, down 0.99% month - on - month but up 1.7% year - on - year. From January to September, the estimated cumulative production of refined copper rods was 8.484 million tons, up 8.64% year - on - year. - During the off - season of air - conditioners, weak terminal demand did not support an increase in orders for copper tube enterprises. This week, copper tube production decreased, and the production schedule remained stable [52]. 3.11 Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of July, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.67 billion kilowatts, up 18.2% year - on - year. From January to July, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment were 1,806 hours, 188 hours less than the same period last year. From January to June, power grid project investment was 291.1 billion yuan, up 14.6% year - on - year, a record high for the same period. Power source project investment was 363.5 billion yuan, up 5.9% year - on - year. Solar and wind power increased by 98.8% and 107% respectively [56]. 3.12 Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - From January to August, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.43109 billion square meters, down 9.3% year - on - year. The new construction area was 398.01 million square meters, down 19.5% year - on - year. The completed area was 276.94 million square meters, down 17.0% year - on - year [60]. 3.13 Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - In August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, up 27.4% and 26.8% year - on - year, accounting for 48.8% of total vehicle sales. From January to August, the cumulative production and sales were 9.625 million and 9.62 million respectively, up 37.3% and 36.7% year - on - year, accounting for 45.5% of total vehicle sales [65]. 3.14 Global Major Exchange Copper Inventories - As of September 12, LME copper inventory started to decline, recording 154,000 tons, down 2.53% from the previous week and 1.23% from the previous month. COMEX copper inventory accumulation slowed down, recording 310,500 tons, up 1.68% from the previous week and 16.38% from the previous month. - On September 11, the total spot inventory of copper in Shanghai and Guangdong bonded areas was 82,300 tons, down 3,300 tons from the 4th and 1,500 tons from the 8th. Shanghai bonded area inventory was 77,000 tons, and Guangdong was 5,300 tons, both showing a downward trend. The SHFE inventory increased slightly, up 6,633 tons from the previous week, and high prices suppressed demand, starting a low - level inventory - building trend [70][75].

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Macro and Industry Resonance, Copper Price Maintains a Bullish Pattern [1] Report Date - September 15, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to maintain a bullish trend due to the increasing likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, which will weaken the US dollar and benefit the copper price. Domestically, with the arrival of the peak season, the market maintains rigid demand purchases, and overall demand has increased. On the supply side, with the arrival of the high - maintenance period, the market is expected to gradually tighten. Although the consumption is difficult to improve significantly in the short term, the optimistic prospect of domestic consumption recovery and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September are expected to support the copper price [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategies - **Supply Side**: As of September 12, the copper concentrate import refining fee was -$41.4/ton, a weekly decrease of $0.9/ton, and the port inventory of domestic copper concentrate was 574,000 tons, slightly increasing from a low level. In August, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 15.59%. In September, the electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease month - on - month due to the maintenance peak of smelters and policy impacts [5]. - **Demand Side**: As of September 11, the weekly operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises dropped to 67.53%, a year - on - year decrease of 14.19 percentage points. The high copper price has inhibited consumption. In August, the operating rates of copper strips, copper tubes, and copper foils were 65.87%, 65.70%, and 78.44% respectively. The copper foil operating rate increased due to strong downstream demand [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 12, the SHFE copper inventory was 94,000 tons, a weekly increase of 14.91%. As of September 11, the domestic copper social inventory was 144,300 tons, a weekly increase of 2.63%. As of September 12, the LME copper inventory was 154,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 2.53%. The global copper inventory increased slightly [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The US economic data increases the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, which is beneficial to the copper price. Domestically, demand has increased, supply is expected to tighten, and the copper price is expected to maintain a bullish trend [6]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro Data Overview**: China's August exports and imports increased year - on - year, CPI decreased year - on - year, PPI's year - on - year decline narrowed, and the new social financing scale and loans increased. The US non - farm employment was revised down by 911,000, and the August CPI was in line with expectations. The European Central Bank maintained interest rates unchanged for the second time [14]. - **Industry News Overview**: The US added copper to the critical minerals list, increasing the possibility of tariff hikes in 2027. Peru's July copper production increased by 2% year - on - year, and Chile's July copper production increased slightly. China's copper concentrate imports increased in August, while the imports of unforged copper and copper products decreased. Freeport suspended mining operations in Indonesia, and Panama plans to evaluate the restart of a copper mine [16]. 3. Futures and Spot Market and Positioning - **Premium and Discount**: The import supply hit the market, causing the premium to decline. The LME copper remained at a discount, but the discount narrowed, and the New York - London copper spread increased slightly [20]. - **Long and Short Positions at Home and Abroad**: As of September 12, the Shanghai copper futures position decreased by 0.15% week - on - week, and the average daily trading volume decreased by 5.01% week - on - week. As of September 5, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions decreased by 13.19% week - on - week. As of September 9, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions increased by 7.93% week - on - week [22]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply Side**: As of September 12, the copper concentrate import refining fee continued to decline, and the port inventory was at a low level. In August, China's electrolytic copper production had a stable growth rate, and it is expected to decrease in September [31]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: As of September 11, the operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises decreased. In August, the operating rates of copper strips, copper tubes, and copper foils showed different trends, with the copper foil operating rate increasing [34]. - **Import and Export**: As of September 12, the Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic copper first decreased and then increased. In July, China's refined copper imports increased year - on - year, and in August, the imports of unforged copper and copper products increased year - on - year [38]. - **Inventory**: As of September 12, the SHFE copper inventory increased, the domestic copper social inventory increased slightly, and the LME copper inventory decreased slightly, with the global copper inventory increasing slightly [41].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，8月份，制造业PMI升至49.4%，景气水平较上 月有所改善；中性。 2、基差：现货80990，基差-70，贴水期货； 中性。 3、库存：9月12日铜库存减225至153950吨，上期所铜库存较上周增12203吨至94054吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：库存回升，地缘扰动仍存，等待9月旺季消费指引，目前多空矛盾不突出，铜价震荡偏强运 行 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 每日汇总 现货 地方 中间价 涨跌 库存 类型 总量（吨） 增 ...

Group 1: Copper Price Trends - Recent copper prices have reached a five-month high due to macroeconomic policy expectations, supply disruptions, and resilient demand [1] - The domestic copper price in Shanghai has also seen fluctuations, with the main contract reaching a peak of 81,100 yuan/ton [1] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has increased significantly, with the market pricing in three rate cuts by the end of the year [1][2] Group 2: Supply Disruptions - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has halted operations due to an accident, impacting a significant annual output of 297,000 tons [2] - If the Grasberg mine remains closed for one month, it could lead to a reduction of approximately 4.5 million tons of refined copper production [2][3] - The long-term structural issues in global copper mining, such as declining ore grades and insufficient capital expenditure, contribute to supply constraints [2] Group 3: Demand Factors - Seasonal demand in traditional consumption areas is expected to support copper prices, particularly during the "golden September and silver October" period [3] - The demand from the renewable energy sector remains strong, with significant production and sales growth in domestic electric vehicles [3] - Global low inventory levels are also supporting copper prices, alongside expectations of continued strong demand from re-industrialization efforts [5] Group 4: Policy and Market Dynamics - Domestic policies tightening on scrap copper are expected to lead to a 5% month-on-month decrease in electrolytic copper production in September [4] - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision for potential impacts on copper prices [4] - The overall outlook for copper prices remains cautiously optimistic, with potential upward trends supported by macroeconomic policies and demand, despite concerns over future supply [5] Group 5: Corporate Strategies - Major mining companies, including Fortescue Metals Group, are actively exploring new copper assets in response to declining demand for iron ore [6] - Fortescue emphasizes a strategic approach to investments, ensuring long-term benefits while maintaining a healthy balance sheet [6]

据CME"美联储观察"：美联储本周降息25个基点的概率为96.4%，降息50个基点的概率为3.6%。美联储 10月累计降息25个基点的概率为16.0%，累计降息50个基点的概率为81.0%，累计降息75个基点的概率 为3.0%。 特朗普再度敦促美上诉法院批准解雇美联储理事库克 9月12日，商务部新闻发言人就中美在西班牙举行会谈事答记者问时表示，经中美双方商定，中共中央 政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰将于9月14日至17日率团赴西班牙与美方举行会谈。双方将讨论美单 边关税措施、滥用出口管制及TikTok等经贸问题。据新华社报道，当地时间9月14日，中美双方在西班 牙马德里就有关经贸问题举行会谈。 本周迎来"超级央行周"。美国、日本、英国、加拿大央行将公布利率决议。巴西、南非、挪威央行也将 公布最新政策利率。美联储主席、日本央行行长将于利率决议之后举行货币政策发布会。 美联储将公布9月利率决议 北京时间周四（9月18日）凌晨，美联储将公布9月利率决议结果，目前市场预计其会降息25个基点。如 果结果符合预期，那么预计市场会将焦点转向美联储未来的利率路径上，特别是最新的经济预期、"点 阵图"和美联储主席鲍威尔随后的新 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The fundamentals of copper are generally strong. Mine accidents and low inventories support copper prices, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut continues to underpin the downside. The market is expected to be mainly in a strong sideways trend [9]. - **Crude Oil**: In the medium to long term, it is recommended to short on rallies as the supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken. In the short term, it is advised to gradually take profit on short positions due to geopolitical risks and partial release of OPEC+ meeting negatives [10]. - **Asphalt**: The supply and demand of asphalt both increase. It is recommended to take profit on short positions and then wait and see as the asphalt futures price has fallen to the lower edge of the trading range [12]. - **PP**: It is expected that PP will trade sideways in the near term with limited downside as downstream demand may improve during the peak season, but the industry lacks anti - involution policies [13]. - **Plastic**: Plastic is expected to trade sideways with limited downside in the near term as the demand for agricultural film is entering the peak season, but the industry lacks anti - involution policies [15]. - **PVC**: PVC is expected to decline sideways as its fundamentals are under pressure with high inventory and weak demand, and the industry lacks effective policies [16][18]. - **Urea**: The urea market is bottoming out, and a technical rebound is expected as the inventory is high and domestic demand is weak [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - As of the close on September 12, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Silver, apples, copper, nickel, aluminum, and others rose, while the container shipping index (European line), low - sulfur fuel oil, and others declined. Among stock index futures, IF and IH fell, while IC and IM rose. Among bond futures, TS fell, while TF, T, and TL rose [6][7]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:17 on September 12, copper 2510, silver 2510, and 30 - year treasury bonds 2512 had capital inflows, while CSI 1000 2509, CSI 300 2509, and CSI 500 2509 had capital outflows [7]. 3.2 Analysis of Specific Varieties 3.2.1 Copper - The US initial jobless claims reached a nearly four - year high, and CPI increased. China's copper ore imports in August increased year - on - year. The smelter processing fee decreased, and the sulfuric acid price may have reached a high. Five smelters have maintenance plans in September, and the domestic electrolytic copper output is expected to decline. The terminal profit is weak, and the peak - season expectation is uncertain [9]. 3.2.2 Crude Oil - The US oil products are in a state of over - inventory, and the refinery operating rate has slightly increased. OPEC+ will adjust production in October, and Saudi Aramco has lowered the price of its flagship product. The US - India trade issue may affect the global oil trade flow. The consumption peak season is ending, and the supply - demand balance is expected to weaken [10]. 3.2.3 Asphalt - The asphalt operating rate has increased this week but is still at a relatively low level. The expected production in September has increased significantly. The downstream operating rate has mostly increased, but the shipment volume has decreased. The refinery inventory - to - sales ratio has increased but is still at a low level. The cost support has weakened [11][12]. 3.2.4 PP - The downstream operating rate of PP has increased, and the enterprise operating rate has decreased. The proportion of standard - grade拉丝 production has declined. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the cost has decreased. The downstream is expected to enter the peak season [13]. 3.2.5 Plastic - The plastic operating rate has decreased, and the PE downstream operating rate has increased. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the cost has decreased. The agricultural film is entering the peak season [15]. 3.2.6 PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price is mostly stable. The PVC operating rate has increased and is at a relatively high level. The downstream operating rate has increased but is still low. The export expectation has weakened, and the social inventory is high. New production capacity has been put into operation or is planned to be tested [16]. 3.2.7 Urea - Urea opened low and rebounded weakly, then declined in the afternoon. The supply is around 180,000 tons per day, with both restarts and maintenance. The inventory is high, and the demand is limited. The compound fertilizer factory's operating rate has increased, but the inventory is still high [19].