金十数据整理：每日期货市场要闻速递（5月8日） 1. 据Mysteel，限产消息对东北区域影响有限，吉林区域由于近年钢厂生产意愿持续低迷还处于减量状 态，故与限产难有关联；至于辽黑两地限产消息影响几何，也需等政策最终落地方能知晓。 2. 路透公布对USDA 5月供需报告中美国农作物产量的数据预测，分析师平均预计，美国2025/2026年度 大豆产量料为43.38亿蒲式耳，预估区间介于43-44亿蒲式耳，USDA农业展望论坛为43.7亿蒲式耳。 3. 巴西全国谷物出口商协会（Anec）预计，巴西5月大豆出口为1260万吨，去年同期为1347万吨；豆粕 出口预计为187万吨，去年同期为197万吨。 4. 阿联酋富查伊拉石油工业区最新数据显示，截至5月5日当周，阿联酋富查伊拉港的成品油总库存环比 上升了0.1%，达到2074.2万桶。其中，中质馏分油库存下降了20%，至173万桶，为七个月低点。 5. 据SMM了解，近期华南市场光伏玻璃企业部分报价下调至13元/平方米，主要原因为组件需求以及组 件价格的下降使组件企业对原料接受心态下降，原报价无接单，为促进接单，局部报价下调，预计后续 光伏玻璃市场或将出现普遍下调预 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 5 月 7 日 星期三 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周二（5 月 6 日）A 股迎来五月首个交易日，三大指数集体走强。截止收盘，沪指涨 1.13%， 收报 3316.11 点；深证成指涨 1.84%，收报 10082.34 点；创业板指涨 1.97%，收报 1986.41 点。沪深两市成交额 达到 13362 亿，较上个交易日放量 1668 亿。 沪深 300 指数 5 月 6 日震荡趋强，收盘 3808.54，环比上涨 37.97。 【郑糖】因短线跌幅较大空头逢低了结支持美糖周一继续反弹。受美糖上升支持郑糖 2509 月合约周二震荡 走高，不过现货报价下调限制期价上升空间。郑糖 2509 月合约夜盘波动不大窄幅震荡。巴西国家商品供应公司 （Conab）表示，巴西 2025/26 年度甘蔗产量料为 6.634 亿吨，较上一年度下滑 2%；巴西 2025/26 年度甘蔗种植 面积预计较前一年度增长 0.3%，单产下降 2.3%。巴西 2025/26 年度糖产量料为创纪录的 4,590 万吨，较上一年 度增长 4%。 【胶】受股市上升提振资金作用沪胶周二震荡上升。 ...

晨报 成材 成材：缺乏驱动 偏弱整理 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：4 月，全国建筑钢材日均成交量为 11.66 万吨，月环比上升 8.25%，年同比下降 29.93%。4 月，热轧板卷样本钢厂总产量 1267.9 万吨， 库存终值为 282.86 万吨，表需 324.36 万吨。中指研究院：4 月，百城新 建住宅均价为 16764 元/平方米，环比结构性上涨 0.14%，同比上涨 2.50%。 4 月，百城二手住宅均价为 13892 元/平方米，环比下跌 0.69%，同比下跌 7.23 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨钢铁 [Table_Title] 原料宽松助力盈利修复，静待供给侧优化信号 ——钢铁行业 2024 年报和 2025 年一季报总结 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2024 年四季度以来，钢价在强预期和弱现实的博弈下区间震荡，库存的低位，为钢价形成支 撑；而双焦在供给宽松的预期下快速弱化，成为助力钢企触底反弹的核心因素。1）需求弱势+ 成本宽松压制钢价，24 年收入同比-10.0%，25Q1 同比-10.3%，环比-4.8%；2）24 年成本延 续强势，成本同比-8.7%，25Q1 成本压力缓释，同比-12.1%，环比-6.1%；3）25Q1 盈利触底 反弹，扣非净利润同比和环比均扭亏为盈。4）24 年 ROE 降至-1.63%，25Q1 反弹至 2.12%。 吨材口径，24 年行业吨净利降 113 元至-99 元/吨，25Q1 增 122 元/吨至 23 元/吨。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 赵超 易轰 吕士诚 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490520080012 SFC：B ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨钢铁 [Table_Title] 二季度钢材的购销价差有望走扩 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 从 4 月初至今均价来看，铁矿、冶金焦、螺纹、热轧环比一季度分别下跌 26、72、138、136 元/吨，螺纹和热轧在出口需求下行的预期下，跌价较原料更为明显，测算 4 月以来的螺纹、热 轧购销价差较一季度收窄 43、41 元/吨。但考虑到长协焦煤滞后一个季度定价，若假设钢企全 部采用焦煤长协，对应 4 月以来的螺纹、热轧的购销价差较一季度反而走扩 62、63 元/吨。基 于钢企在双焦采购中大部分采取季度长协形式，焦煤长协价格的下跌，在二季度反映或更显著。 同时，在限产预期下，黑色商品价格从 4 月初以来逐步走强，钢价上涨利好钢材购销价差走扩。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 赵超 易轰 吕士诚 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490520080012 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUY139 SFC：BUZ394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 在限产预期催化下，钢铁处于从估值修复向基本面 ...

钢铁周报 20250504 粗钢限产预期再起，钢厂利润有望回升 2025 年 05 月 04 日 ➢ 价格：本周钢材价格涨跌互现。截至 4 月 30 日，上海 20mm HRB400 材 质螺纹价格为 3200 元/吨，较上周持平。高线 8.0mm 价格为 3420 元/吨，较上 周升 10 元/吨。热轧 3.0mm 价格为 3260 元/吨，较上周持平。冷轧 1.0mm 价 格为 3670 元/吨，较上周降 40 元/吨。普中板 20mm 价格为 3510 元/吨，较上 周升 20 元/吨。本周原材料中，国产矿市场价格震荡，进口矿市场价格稳中有跌， 废钢价格上涨。 ➢ 利润：本周钢材利润上升。长流程方面，我们测算本周行业螺纹钢、热轧和 冷轧毛利分别环比前一周变化+53 元/吨，+20 元/吨和-54 元/吨。短流程方面， 本周电炉钢毛利环比前一周变化+35 元/吨。 ➢ 产量与库存：截至 5 月 2 日，五大钢材产量上升，总库存环比下降。产量方 面，本周五大钢材品种产量 884 万吨，环比升 7.85 万吨，其中建筑钢材产量周 环比增 3.37 万吨，板材产量周环比升 4.48 万吨，螺纹钢本周增产 4.2 ...

钢铁周报 20250504 粗钢限产预期再起，钢厂利润有望回升 2025 年 05 月 04 日 ➢ 价格：本周钢材价格涨跌互现。截至 4 月 30 日，上海 20mm HRB400 材 质螺纹价格为 3200 元/吨，较上周持平。高线 8.0mm 价格为 3420 元/吨，较上 周升 10 元/吨。热轧 3.0mm 价格为 3260 元/吨，较上周持平。冷轧 1.0mm 价 格为 3670 元/吨，较上周降 40 元/吨。普中板 20mm 价格为 3510 元/吨，较上 周升 20 元/吨。本周原材料中，国产矿市场价格震荡，进口矿市场价格稳中有跌， 废钢价格上涨。 ➢ 利润：本周钢材利润上升。长流程方面，我们测算本周行业螺纹钢、热轧和 冷轧毛利分别环比前一周变化+53 元/吨，+20 元/吨和-54 元/吨。短流程方面， 本周电炉钢毛利环比前一周变化+35 元/吨。 ➢ 风险提示：下游需求不及预期；钢价大幅下跌；原材料价格大幅波动。 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 晨报 成材 成材：节前规避风险 钢价偏弱整理 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 成材昨日震荡下跌，回吐周一涨幅。此前的粗钢限产传闻一度带动钢 价反弹，但实际下游疲弱的情况则限制了钢价涨幅，且五一假期临近进一 步导致市场趋于谨慎。政治局会议无超预期政策，市场回归基本面逻辑， 后续进入季节性淡季，钢价缺乏向上驱动。 观点：驱动不强，整体承压。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包 ...

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 4 月 30 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：4月29日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2510 | 31 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Recommend shorting at high prices [2] - Coking coal and coke: Sideways [2] - Rebar and wire rod: Sideways [2] - Glass: Sideways [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Sideways [4] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Sideways [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Sideways [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Sideways [4] - Gold: High - level sideways [4] - Silver: High - level sideways [5] - Pulp: Weak sideways [5] - Logs: Sideways [5] - Soybean oil: Weak sideways [5] - Palm oil: Weak sideways [5] - Rapeseed oil: Weak sideways [5] - Soybean meal: Weak sideways [7] - Rapeseed meal: Weak sideways [7] - Soybean No. 2: Weak sideways [7] - Soybean No. 1: Sideways [7] - Rubber: Sideways [7] - PX: Sideways [7] - PTA: Sideways [7] - MEG: Low - level range [7] - PR: Hold off [8] - PF: Hold off [8] - Plastic: Weak sideways [8] - PP: Weak sideways [8] - PVC: Weak sideways [8] Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the iron ore market are gradually weakening due to repeated tariff disturbances and the resurgence of crude steel production restrictions. The supply of coking coal and coke is in an oversupply situation, and the market is pessimistic. The steel market is affected by policies and demand, with a cautious outlook. The glass market has weak demand and high inventory, with a short - term low - level sideways trend. The stock index market has a positive outlook with the easing of external market risks. The bond market is under pressure, and long positions in bonds should be reduced. The precious metals market is affected by multiple factors, with high - level sideways trends expected. The pulp market has weak demand and falling prices. The forest products market has marginal improvement, with a sideways trend. The oil and fat market has sufficient supply and is expected to be weak sideways. The rubber market has weak short - term driving forces and is expected to be weak sideways. The chemical product market is affected by raw material prices and supply - demand relationships, with mostly sideways or weak sideways trends [2][4][5][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: Tariff disturbances and crude steel production restrictions have led to a weakening of fundamentals. Overseas iron ore shipments are increasing, and with the improvement of weather and the end of mine maintenance, shipments and arrivals are expected to rise in the second quarter. Steel mill profits are okay, but there is an expectation of a peak in molten iron production, and market sentiment is pessimistic. Radical investors can hold a light position in the iron ore 09 contract and avoid uncertainties during the May Day holiday [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Domestic coking coal production is still high, and supply has increased. Affected by tariff policies, steel spot trading is poor, and market confidence is frustrated. Most coking enterprises are at the break - even point, and the second round of coke price increases has not been implemented. The supply of coke is in an oversupply situation, and the overall market follows the trend of finished products [2] - **Rebar**: At the beginning of the month, the tariff impact landed, but the total reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut tools have not been implemented. The market is cautious. At the end of the month, the crude steel policy has an impact, and the supply - side contraction expectation supports steel prices. Rebar is at a neutral valuation level, and cost support is strengthening. Demand is falling, and there are signs of a peak. It is recommended that investors hold a light position during the May Day holiday [2] - **Glass**: The conversion of 9 glass coal - fired production lines in Shahe City to clean gas has increased the cost of the far - month contract, making the far - month contract stronger than the near - month contract. Recently, coal prices have fallen rapidly, and the profit of coal - fired glass has improved. The start - up rate and daily output of float glass have declined, and supply has decreased slightly. Downstream demand is still weak, and inventory has started to accumulate. It is recommended to hold a light position during the May Day holiday and pay attention to spot trading, macro policies, and inventory changes [2] Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures. The inflow and outflow of funds in different sectors were different. With the stabilization of the external market and the easing of risk - aversion sentiment, long positions in stock index futures can be held [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has decreased, and the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations. Interest rates are fluctuating, and the market is under pressure. Long positions in Treasury bonds should be reduced [4] - **Precious Metals**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and central bank gold purchases are the key. It has multiple attributes such as currency, finance, and risk - aversion. The current logic for the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed, and short - term fluctuations may be caused by the Fed's interest rate and tariff policies. Silver is also in a high - level sideways trend, and it is necessary to pay attention to inflation and employment data [4][5] Forest Products - **Pulp**: The spot market price of pulp has continued to decline, and the cost price has also decreased, weakening the support for pulp prices. The profitability of the papermaking industry is low, and demand is weak. Pulp prices are expected to be weak sideways [5] - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports has increased, but demand has declined after reaching a phased high. The arrival volume in the near future has decreased, and supply pressure has eased. The inventory at ports has remained stable. The cost has decreased, and the market price is expected to be sideways [5] Oil and Fats - The Southeast Asian palm oil is in the seasonal production - increasing cycle, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. South American soybeans have a record - high harvest, and domestic soybean arrivals have increased significantly. The supply of the three major oils is sufficient, and with the end of pre - holiday stocking, the oil and fat market is expected to be weak sideways [5] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply side is expected to increase in May as the main domestic and overseas production areas start tapping. The demand side has weak sales in the semi - steel tire industry, and the overall demand is uncertain. The inventory accumulation speed has slowed down, and the price is expected to be weak sideways. Attention should be paid to the macro and policy aspects [7] Chemical Products - **PX**: There is a lack of positive drivers, and oil prices may fluctuate within a narrow range. The domestic PX load is fluctuating, and the demand from the PTA side has declined. PX prices are expected to follow oil price fluctuations [7] - **PTA**: Raw material prices are volatile, and the PXN spread is around $184/ton, and the spot TA processing margin is around 429 yuan/ton. The TA load has increased, and the polyester load is maintained. The short - term supply - demand situation is in a state of inventory reduction, mainly affected by raw material prices [7] - **MEG**: The domestic MEG load has increased, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. The polyester load is stable. Raw material prices are weak, and the market fluctuates widely due to macro - sentiment fluctuations [7] - **Plastic Products**: Most chemical products are affected by raw material prices, supply - demand relationships, and policies. The market is in a sideways or weak sideways trend. For example, the plastic market is affected by concerns about economic decline and new device production, with a weak outlook. The PP market is affected by falling oil prices and supply - demand relationships, with a weak sideways trend. The PVC market has a decline in upstream and downstream starts, and inventory has decreased, but the market is still expected to be weak sideways [8]