Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference outlines China's economic performance and strategic priorities, emphasizing resilience and innovation in the face of challenges, while setting a roadmap for future growth and stability. Economic Performance and Outlook - The overall economic operation is stable with expected growth around 5% for the year, positioning China among the leading global economies, with a projected GDP of approximately 140 trillion yuan [2] - Employment remains stable, with significant growth in foreign trade and diversified exports [2] - The construction of a modern industrial system is progressing, with advancements in technology and innovation in sectors like AI and biomedicine [2] - Reforms and opening-up measures are advancing, with a focus on creating a unified national market and addressing competitive issues [2] - Risk mitigation in key areas has shown positive results, including the orderly replacement of local government hidden debts and the completion of housing delivery tasks [2] - Social welfare policies, such as childcare subsidies and free education for preschoolers, are being implemented to enhance public welfare [2] Challenges and Strategic Responses - The conference acknowledges ongoing economic challenges, including external environmental changes and domestic supply-demand imbalances [3] - Despite these challenges, China's long-term economic fundamentals remain strong, supported by a large market, complete industrial system, and abundant talent resources [3] - The government plans to continue implementing proactive macroeconomic policies, focusing on quality and efficiency [4][5] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The fiscal policy will maintain necessary deficits and debt levels while addressing local fiscal difficulties and ensuring sustainable finances [5][6] - Monetary policy will remain moderately accommodative, with a focus on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring liquidity [8][9] Domestic Demand and Investment - Expanding domestic demand is a top priority, with a contribution rate of 71% to economic growth in the first three quarters [9] - The government aims to stimulate consumption by addressing structural changes and enhancing residents' income [9][10] - Investment strategies will focus on infrastructure and social welfare, with an emphasis on high-quality projects and private sector engagement [10] Regional Development and Innovation Centers - The construction of international technology innovation centers in Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area is a key strategic initiative to enhance global competitiveness [11][12] - The expansion of these centers aims to integrate innovation resources and promote high-quality development [12] Market Regulation and Competition - The government is addressing market distortions and enhancing fair competition through regulatory reforms and the establishment of a unified national market [13][14] - Measures will be taken to regulate local government behaviors and ensure compliance with fair competition standards [14] Trade and Foreign Investment - The government plans to enhance foreign trade and investment through a series of measures, including expanding service sector openness and optimizing the business environment for foreign investors [15][17] - Efforts will be made to sign more trade agreements and promote high-quality imports [16][17] Employment and Real Estate Market - Employment policies will focus on stabilizing job growth, particularly for key demographics such as graduates and migrant workers [22][23] - The real estate market will be stabilized through measures that address both supply and demand, encouraging the transformation of real estate companies and promoting high-quality housing development [25][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly, with an increase in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis [2]. - On the fundamental raw material side, the spot processing fee index of copper concentrate remained at a low negative level, and the expectation of tight ore supply would have a long - term impact on the copper smelting end, providing cost support [2]. - In terms of supply, the price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting, was still relatively good, making up for some of the profit losses of smelters. The operating rate of smelters rebounded due to the resumption of production after previous overhauls, but the increase was only slight due to the tight raw materials [2]. - In terms of demand, boosted by macro expectations, copper prices were strong in the short term, but high prices inhibited the purchasing sentiment of downstream buyers, who became more cautious, and social inventories increased slightly [2]. - In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions was 1.25, a month - on - month increase of 0.1264, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility decreased slightly [2]. - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD chart, the two lines were below the 0 axis, and the green bars slightly converged. The conclusion was to conduct light - position trading in a volatile market and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 91,920.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 480.00 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 11,593.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 62.50 US dollars [2]. - The spread between adjacent months of the main contract was - 50.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 40.00 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 217,374.00 lots, an increase of 51,565.00 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 34,081.00 lots, a decrease of 1,852.00 lots; the LME copper inventory was 165,875.00 tons, a decrease of 25.00 tons [2]. - The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 89,389.00 tons, an increase of 484.00 tons; the cancelled LME copper warrants were 65,400.00 tons, a decrease of 600.00 tons [2]. - The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 45,784.00 tons, a decrease of 2,856.00 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 91,700.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 565.00 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market was 91,995.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400.00 yuan [2]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 48.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 43.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the CU main contract was - 220.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85.00 yuan; the LME copper cash - 3 months spread was - 4.39 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 25.08 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 245.15 million tons, a decrease of 13.56 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 43.08 US dollars/kiloton, a decrease of 0.22 US dollars [2]. - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 82,200.00 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 460.00 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 82,900.00 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 460.00 yuan [2]. - The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 1,400.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 100.00 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north was 1,000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 100.00 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 120.40 million tons, a decrease of 6.20 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 427,000.00 tons, a decrease of 13,000.00 tons [2]. - The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 63,090.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,100.00 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 970.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 0.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 78,150.00 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 200.40 million tons, a decrease of 22.80 million tons; the cumulative investment in power grid construction was 4,824.34 billion yuan, an increase of 446.27 billion yuan [2]. - The cumulative real estate development investment was 78,591.00 billion yuan, an increase of 5,028.30 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,390,000.00 million pieces, an increase of 213,000.00 million pieces [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 17.87%, a decrease of 0.32%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 17.09%, an increase of 0.09% [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month was 16.98%, a decrease of 0.0164%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.25, an increase of 0.1264 [2] 3.7 Industry News - China's economic "report card" for November was released. In November, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 4.8% year - on - year, the service industry production index increased by 4.2% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3% year - on - year. From January to November, national fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, among which manufacturing investment increased by 1.9% and real estate development investment decreased by 15.9%. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in November remained unchanged at 5.1% [2]. - Xi Jinping's important article "Expanding Domestic Demand is a Strategic Move" was published in Qiushi Journal. The article pointed out that expanding domestic demand is related to both economic stability and economic security, and it is a strategic move rather than a temporary measure. Implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand is necessary for maintaining the long - term, sustainable and healthy development of China's economy and for meeting the people's growing needs for a better life [2]. - Federal Reserve's Williams said that monetary policy is well - prepared for 2026. It is expected that the US unemployment rate will drop to 4.5% by the end of 2025. The risks in the labor market have increased, while inflation risks have eased. The Fed's policy has shifted from mild tightening to neutral. It is expected that the inflation rate will rise to 2.5% in 2026 and fall to 2% in 2027. The Fed is expected to actively use the standing repurchase facility to manage liquidity [2]. - Federal Reserve Governor Milan reiterated that the Fed's policy stance poses unnecessary restrictions on the economy, and believes that after excluding "phantom inflation", the "underlying" inflation level is close to the Fed's target [2]

碳酸锂产业日报 2025/12/16 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建 议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发， 需注明出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 100,600.00 | -460.00↓ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -169,133.00 | -1008.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 666,027.00 | +3842.00↑ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -1,480.00 | +180.00↑ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 15,286.00 | ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 中央财办有关负责同志详解2025年中央经济工作会议精神。明年继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。一是把 促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，这是今年会议的新提法。货币政策将加强 前瞻性、科学性调节，保持流动性充裕，保持社会融资条件相对宽松，促进社会综合融资成本低位运 行，与其他政策举措形成合力，努力推动实现经济增长、物价回升等目标。二是灵活高效运用多种货币 政策工具。货币政策工具箱既包括降准降息，也包括其他短期、中期、长期流动性投放工具。明年将灵 活搭配、高效运用多种工具，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹 配。三是加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。继续用好用活结构性货币政策工具， 着力畅通货币政策传导机制，持续提升金融服务实体经济的质效。同时，要继续平衡好内外部关系，保 持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务。今年我国内需总体 保持稳健，前三 ...

中央财办有关负责同志详解2025年中央经济工作会议精神：扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务。今年我国内需总体保持稳健，前三季度内需对经济增长贡献率达到71%。提振消费政策成效明显，扩大有效投资扎实推进。我们也注意到，近几个月消费和投资增速有所放缓，需要持续加力扩内需。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行（新华社）保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，加强财政科学管理，优化财政支出结构，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具。 https://t.co/hg50nWl2V1 ...

明年要着眼惠民生增后劲，推动投资止跌回稳。当前投资出现下滑，但我国在科技创新、产业升级、基 础设施、改善民生等方面还有不少短板弱项。要把投资于物和投资于人相结合，统筹提振消费和扩大投 资，加快建设停车场、充电桩、旅游公路等消费基础设施，提高养老、托育、医疗等民生类投资比重， 高质量推进城市更新，着力扩大有效投资。要有效发挥政府投资带动作用，用好中央预算内投资、超长 期特别国债、地方政府专项债券等资金，优化实施"两重"项目，靠前实施具备条件的"十五五"重大项 目，发挥重大工程牵引带动作用。要激发民间投资活力，落实好进一步促进民间投资发展的若干措施， 支持民营企业参与铁路、核电等领域重大项目，引导民间投资向高技术、服务业等新赛道拓展，以更实 举措增强民间投资信心。 （文章来源：新华社） 针对内需发展现状如何？提振消费、扩大投资的空间和动力在哪里？中央财办有关负责同志表示，扩大 内需是明年排在首位的重点任务。今年我国内需总体保持稳健，前三季度内需对经济增长贡献率达到 71%。提振消费政策成效明显，扩大有效投资扎实推进。我们也注意到，近几个月消费和投资增速有所 放缓，需要持续加力扩内需。 明年要把握消费的结构性变化， ...

Core Insights - The "Xingfu Longbao Treasure Travel" event by Industrial Bank is designed to stimulate cultural tourism consumption in Wuhan, following its launch in Fuzhou, by integrating local cultural characteristics with an innovative "IP + finance + cultural tourism" model [1][8] - The event aligns with the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference's emphasis on domestic demand as a primary economic task, highlighting the cultural tourism economy's role in boosting consumption and driving industry growth [1][8] Group 1 - The event features a combination of online and offline experiences, creating immersive consumption scenarios that leverage local cultural elements [1][6] - A pop-up experience space centered around the "Xingfu Long" IP has been established in the Chu River Han Street, engaging over 300 local merchants with exclusive consumer discounts [3][5] - The next event is scheduled to take place in Nanjing at the end of the year, continuing the momentum of the cultural tourism economy [1] Group 2 - The event utilizes the geographical advantages of service outlets to create new "check-in points" for tourists, enhancing interaction and cultural engagement [5] - An online component includes the release of the "Wuhan Cultural Tourism Route Book," promoting travel routes and associated consumer benefits through social media engagement [6] - Industrial Bank has positioned cultural tourism as a key focus for high-quality economic development, collaborating with local tourism groups to enhance tourism consumption and ecological value [8]

2025 年 12 月 16 日 星期二 每日大市点评 昨日恒生指数、国企股指数、恒生科技股指数分别下跌 1.3%、1.8%、2.5%，主板成交额较上周五下跌 15.8%至 2,043 亿 港元。分板块看，科技股与医疗保健股下跌，但是黄金与消费板块上涨。媒体报道由于劳动力与材料短缺等原因，甲骨 文（ORCL US）将部分 OpenAI 数据中心建设项目的完工时间从 2027 年推迟至 2028 年，拖累科技股下跌。医疗保健股的 下跌可能与 A 股著名企业一品红（300723 CH）参股的美国 Arthrosi 的并购协议中的金额低于市场预期有关，其他未见负 面新闻。尽管如此，由于国际金价的上涨，黄金板块紫金矿业（2899 HK）、灵宝黄金（3330 HK）、招金矿业（1818 HK）、紫金黄金国际（2259 HK）上升。消费板块昨日上涨，一方面 2025 年 1-11 月社会消费品零售总额数据良好，另一 方面习近平主席在中央经济工作会议中指出扩大内需是战略之举，推动消费板块上涨，其中老牌著名企业李宁（2331 HK）、裕元集团（551 HK）分别上涨 5.4%与 6.4%。此外，由于香港旅发局公布的首 11 ...

Economic News - The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced that Muxi Integrated Circuit (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. will list its A-shares on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with a total share capital of 40.01 million shares, of which 18.14 million shares will be traded starting December 17, 2025 [2] - From January to November this year, the China National Railway Group reported that 4.28 billion passengers were transported by rail, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, the highest for the same period in history [2] - The Ministry of Commerce announced that starting December 17, 2025, anti-dumping duties will be imposed on imported pork and pork by-products originating from the European Union [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need to accelerate the establishment of a system to expand domestic demand, aiming to remove unreasonable restrictions on consumption in sectors like automobiles and housing [2] Important Company Information - China West Electric reported that four of its subsidiaries were awarded contracts totaling 1.005 billion yuan [3] - Huaxi Co., Ltd. announced that its controlling shareholder, Huaxi Group, has released the pledge on 8.24 million shares, accounting for 31.69% of its holdings and 9.30% of the company's total share capital [3] - Tianfu Long plans to increase its investment in its wholly-owned subsidiary, Fuweier (Zhuhai), by 580 million yuan, raising its registered capital to 1.08 billion yuan [3] - Fulei New Materials has received approval from the Shanghai Stock Exchange for its application to issue A-shares to specific investors [3] Investment Strategy - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized maintaining a stable and progressive approach, continuing to implement proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, with a focus on stabilizing growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [6][8] - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized, with measures to implement urban and rural resident income increase plans and optimize consumption policies to stimulate consumer spending [7] - The investment outlook for 2026 is positive, with expectations for marginal improvements in consumption and a recovery in traditional infrastructure investment supported by policy measures [7][8] Mechanical Industry Insights - The mechanical equipment index rose by 36.11% in 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 19.74 percentage points [10] - The mechanical industry reported a revenue of 15,135.34 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 7.35%, and a net profit of 1,080.76 billion yuan, up 16.80% year-on-year [11] - The equipment manufacturing sector maintained export resilience, with significant growth in exports of general and specialized equipment [11] Nonferrous Metals Industry Outlook - The global metal industry is entering a weak supply cycle, with exploration investment declining, indicating a tightening supply environment [14][15] - The average return on equity (ROE) in the metal industry increased from 8.34% in Q3 2024 to 10.60% in Q3 2025, reflecting improved industry profitability [18] - The copper supply is expected to remain tight due to structural weaknesses, while demand is supported by growth in new energy and infrastructure sectors [19][20] High-Precision Navigation Industry - Huace Navigation is a leading player in China's BeiDou satellite navigation sector, with a revenue of 3.251 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.38% [26] - The company has developed its own high-precision navigation chips, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [27] - The agricultural machinery navigation market is rapidly growing, with Huace Navigation holding a leading market share in China [28]

本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、《求是》重要文章说了什么，指向什么方向？ 今天国内市场向下回踩得有些狠：上证指数下跌1.1%，创业板指跌2.1%。进入12月后，国内股票市场 的财富效应迅速萎缩——这一点我们已在近日的音频中反复提及，总原则仍叫"谨慎为金"。多重肉眼可 见的压力中，最典型的是刚结束的两次会议：12月8日的政治局会议和12月11日的中央经济工作会议。 政策节奏总体讲究"稳扎稳打"，而此前市场预期却是"高举高打"，于是部分资金不得不面对预期落差， 进而对整体市场形成压制。当然，我们并非说"稳扎稳打"之下所有行业、所有赛道都无亮点；熬过12月 及1月初的典型波动期后，政策指向的亮点大概率会逐步浮现，转化为潜力与机会。 今天政策层面又有新表态：《求是》杂志发表了一把手的重要文章，标题为《扩大内需是战略之举》。 《求是》的地位毋庸赘述，其基本代表最高层声音；此文又是两次会议后一把手发表的首篇综述，意有 所指，可视为来年工作的重中之重。标题已点明重点——"扩大内需是战略之举"，并非权宜之策，而是 短、中、长期都要"徐徐图之"。 本文为妙投付费内容，上述仅为摘要，购买本专栏即可解锁完整内容。新用 ...