消费行业研究组 分析师：张婧 证券研究报告·行业点评报告 2025 年 12 月 23 日 江海证券研究发展部 执业证书编号：S1410525010001 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -6.08 -4.75 -25.64 绝对收益 -2.53 -2.78 -8.23 数据来源：聚源 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 注：2025 年 12 月 22 日数据 -19% -10% -1% 8% 17% 26% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 2025-12 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 1. 江海证券-行业点评报告-食品饮料：白 酒批价短期企稳，线上渠道占比提升 – 2025.10.01 2. 江海证券-行业点评报告-食品饮料：中 报预告陆续发布，行业分化加剧 – 2025.07.16 3. 江海证券-行业点评报告-食品饮料：5 月白酒产量持续下降，啤酒产量同比增 1.3% – 2025.06.27 4. 江海证券-行业点评报告-食品饮料行 业：两会政策窗口临近，关注消费顺周期 板块 – 2025.02.14 5. 江海证券-行业 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Viewpoints - Real estate data continues to show weakness, with a focus on potential policy expectations in the future [6] - Cement shipments are experiencing seasonal declines, and glass prices are decreasing month-on-month [8] - For 2026, three main lines of focus are identified: stock chain, Africa chain, and AI chain [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Real Estate and Construction Data - From January to November, the sales of commercial housing decreased by 11.1% and the sales area by 7.8% year-on-year. In November alone, the sales value and area dropped by 25.1% and 17.3% respectively. The weak performance is attributed to a high base effect from last year's policy releases and weak actual demand [6][7] - New construction and completion data are also weak, with new housing starts down by 20.5% and completions down by 18.0% year-on-year from January to November [7] Cement and Glass Market - In December, cement demand weakened due to air pollution warnings, with an average shipment rate of 42% across key regions, down 1.7 percentage points month-on-month and 2.3 percentage points year-on-year. The average price of cement decreased by 0.2% month-on-month [8][25] - The domestic float glass market is seeing a downward price trend, with production capacity stable at 265 lines and daily melting capacity at 155,105 tons. Inventory levels are also being monitored closely [37][40] Future Outlook for 2026 - The stock chain focuses on optimizing demand and clearing supply, with a significant shift towards renovation demand expected to rise from 50% to nearly 70% by 2030. Recommended companies include Sanke Tree and Rabbit Baby [9] - The Africa chain highlights undervalued growth opportunities in the African market, with recommendations for companies like Keda Manufacturing and Huaxin Cement [9] - The AI chain emphasizes the upgrade of special electronic fabrics, with a focus on domestic leaders like Zhongcai Technology [9]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook on various sectors, particularly focusing on domestic consumption, export opportunities, AI glasses, paper industry recovery, and home furnishings [5][11][18][20]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes structural consumption opportunities driven by domestic demand expansion, highlighting sectors such as personal care, pet products, and IP-driven consumer goods [5][6]. - Export dynamics are shifting positively with reduced external disturbances and potential boosts from U.S. interest rate cuts, suggesting a new phase for Chinese companies in overseas operations [11][12]. - The AI glasses market is experiencing rapid product iterations, with major players like Meta and Alibaba leading the way, indicating a growing market for augmented reality glasses [16][17]. - The paper industry is expected to see demand recovery and price stabilization, with a focus on key players benefiting from this trend [18][19]. - The home furnishings sector is undergoing consolidation, with improved valuations anticipated as real estate policies stabilize, benefiting companies with strong dividend margins [20][21]. Summary by Sections Domestic Consumption - The report highlights the rise of domestic brands in personal care, recommending companies like Baiya and Dengkang for their strong offline channel competitiveness and product upgrades [6][7]. - In the pet products sector, companies like Yiyi and Yuanfei are noted for their robust growth and global expansion strategies [7][8]. - The IP-driven consumer goods market is gaining traction, with companies like Chuangyuan and Guangbo positioned to capitalize on emerging trends [8][9]. Export Opportunities - The report identifies key export players such as Yutong Technology and Yongyi, emphasizing their global supply chain advantages and potential for growth in overseas markets [11][12][13]. - Yongyi is particularly noted for its strategic overseas capacity expansion and the rising demand for ergonomic chairs driven by consumer trends [13][14]. AI Glasses - The report discusses the rapid development of AI glasses, with significant product launches from major brands, indicating a shift towards augmented reality applications [16][17]. - Companies like Kangnait Optical are highlighted for their potential benefits from the growing demand for integrated lens solutions in this market [16]. Paper Industry - The report anticipates a recovery in the paper industry, with key players like Sun Paper and Jiulong Paper expected to benefit from price stabilization and demand recovery [18][19]. Home Furnishings - The home furnishings sector is noted for its ongoing consolidation and potential valuation recovery, with companies like Gujia and Sophia highlighted for their strong market positions and dividend safety [20][21][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of real estate policy stabilization in driving demand for home furnishings, with a focus on companies that can leverage this trend [21][22].

Group 1: siRNA Drug Development - The core viewpoint is that siRNA drugs are transitioning from rare diseases to common diseases, driven by technological upgrades and product approvals, marking a new era in targeted therapy [3][4] - siRNA drugs are characterized by strong target expansion capabilities, robust research extensibility, long-lasting effects, and low likelihood of developing resistance, making them a focus for domestic pharmaceutical companies [3][4] - Since 2016, with advancements in the GalNac delivery system and fully modified applications, siRNA drugs have entered a rapid development phase, validating their value in rare diseases and gradually moving towards common disease research [3][4] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Opportunities - The market for small nucleic acid drugs is heating up, with multinational corporations (MNCs) actively engaging in business development (BD) transactions, indicating a sustained interest in this field [4] - Chinese companies are expected to shine in this area due to their engineering advantages, particularly in chemical synthesis, allowing for rapid iteration on leading technologies [4] - The commercialization process of siRNA drugs is focused on common diseases with clear biological mechanisms, where early movers are likely to gain significant commercial benefits [5] Group 3: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The efficiency and specificity of the GalNac delivery system present opportunities for breakthroughs in liver-targeted therapies and the exploration of previously challenging drug targets [5] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards addressing common diseases, with a focus on new disease areas and advancements in extrahaptic delivery systems [5] - The overall sentiment in the pharmaceutical sector is optimistic, with expectations of significant developments in the siRNA drug space, particularly in large indications such as cardiovascular diseases and chronic hepatitis B [3][4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the "China Gold First Gold Bar Festival" and the "China Gold" APP marks a significant step in the digital transformation of China Gold Group, aiming to enhance consumer services and stimulate domestic demand [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "China Gold First Gold Bar Festival" was inaugurated in Beijing with the theme "Gold Starts a New Journey, Gathering Future Light" [1]. - The event was supported by various stakeholders, including the China Gold Group, People's Daily, and the China Gold Association, highlighting a collaborative effort in the industry [1]. Group 2: Objectives of the APP - The APP aims to create a new consumption scenario that integrates online and offline experiences, responding to the national call for expanding domestic demand [1]. - It seeks to provide a comprehensive service system that includes purchasing, repurchasing, and exchanging gold, addressing consumer needs for convenience and safety [1]. - The initiative represents a shift from traditional product provision to a technology-driven comprehensive service model, positioning China Gold as an industry leader [1]. Group 3: Industry Impact - The APP and festival are seen as benchmarks for high-quality development within the industry, with potential to expand new spaces and inject new connotations into the gold consumption sector [2]. - The collaboration with People's Daily aims to enhance trust and transparency in investment, promoting a rational investment philosophy [2]. - The partnership is expected to provide safety solutions for the entire gold consumption industry chain, leveraging the strengths of both organizations [2]. Group 4: Future Vision - The APP will facilitate a full-channel closed loop for transactions, allowing for online ordering and offline pickup, thus upgrading physical stores into comprehensive service terminals [3]. - The ultimate goal is to enhance consumer experience and accessibility to gold's value and cultural significance, contributing to both consumer welfare and economic stimulation [3]. - The collaboration between state-owned enterprises and media is a practical response to the national strategy for expanding domestic demand and empowering the real economy [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for China to strengthen its internal capabilities to address external challenges, particularly in the context of a complex and uncertain global environment [1] - The article highlights the importance of focusing on domestic demand and innovation to enhance resilience against external uncertainties, advocating for a strong domestic market and the cultivation of new growth drivers [1] Group 2 - The article identifies a "strong supply and weak demand" contradiction, where supply is abundant but structurally imbalanced, leading to intensified competition in low-end products and insufficient high-end supply [3] - It points out that weak consumer growth is influenced by factors such as low expectations for income growth and inadequate service quality, alongside investment vitality issues and external demand pressures from a sluggish global economic recovery [3] Group 3 - The meeting proposes to "deeply implement special actions to boost consumption," including plans to increase residents' income share in national income distribution and enhance government spending on social welfare to stabilize income expectations [4] - It mentions that from January to November this year, the policy of replacing old consumer goods has driven sales exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people, thus injecting momentum into consumption [4] Group 4 - On the supply side, the meeting calls for "expanding the supply of quality goods and services," emphasizing innovation-driven approaches and the acceleration of emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and green energy [5] - It also stresses the need for market-oriented reforms in resource allocation and the establishment of a unified national market to address mismatches between supply and demand across regions [5] Group 5 - The article concludes that the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" should focus on expanding domestic demand and strengthening the domestic circulation to effectively address the "strong supply and weak demand" contradiction [7] - It asserts that regardless of external environmental changes, a commitment to focusing on internal capabilities will help maintain and expand economic stability and progress towards modernization [7]

Group 1 - The Central Economic Work Conference proposed significant measures to enhance enterprise development, including strengthening the innovation role of enterprises and expanding the supply of quality goods and services [1] - The conference emphasized the importance of "Artificial Intelligence+" to accelerate the integration of AI technology into industries, enhancing product iteration speed and manufacturing efficiency [2][4] - The establishment of international technology innovation centers in key regions like Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area is expected to facilitate resource sharing and reduce innovation costs for companies [4] Group 2 - Financial support is crucial for enterprises, with recent policies enhancing financial backing for technological innovation; as of September, the proportion of new technology loans reached 30.5% of total new loans, with a 22.3% year-on-year increase in loans to tech SMEs [5] - The conference prioritized domestic demand, aiming to build a strong domestic market as a key task for the upcoming year, which is essential for enterprise production activities [6] - The conference's focus on expanding the supply of quality goods and services is expected to drive companies to enhance product adaptability and better meet consumer needs, especially in the context of rising domestic consumption [7] Group 3 - The conference's initiatives to improve the business environment include the establishment of a unified national market and the promotion of fair competition, which are expected to enhance industry governance and reduce irrational competition [10] - Measures to clear government debts to enterprises are set to improve the business environment, with a target to resolve all debts under 500,000 yuan by the end of 2025 [10] - The conference's focus on optimizing the market environment and supporting platform enterprises aims to boost market confidence and stimulate high-quality development across various sectors [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, highlighting structural consumption opportunities and potential growth in various sectors [3][5][11]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic consumption, particularly in personal care, pet products, and IP-driven trendy toys, as key areas for investment [3][5][6]. - Export opportunities are expected to improve as external disturbances diminish, with a focus on quality stocks in the export chain [3][11]. - The AI glasses segment is experiencing rapid development, with major players releasing new products that could benefit leading lens manufacturers [3][18]. - The paper industry is anticipated to see a recovery in demand and pricing, with a focus on companies like Sun Paper, Nine Dragons, and others [3][20][22]. - The home furnishing sector is undergoing consolidation, with a focus on companies that offer high dividend safety margins [3][23][25]. Summary by Sections Domestic Consumption - The report highlights the rise of domestic brands in personal care, recommending companies like Baiya and Dengkang for their strong offline channel competitiveness and product upgrades [6][7]. - In the pet products sector, companies like Yiyi and Yuanfei are recommended for their robust growth and global expansion strategies [7][8]. - The IP trendy toy market is driven by self-reward consumption, with companies like Chuangyuan and Guangbo positioned to benefit from this trend [8][9][10]. Export Opportunities - The report notes that external disturbances are lessening, with U.S. interest rate cuts expected to boost furniture consumption [11][13]. - Companies like Yutong Technology and Yongyi are highlighted for their strong global supply chain and potential for growth in overseas markets [13][14][15]. AI Glasses - The report discusses the transition from AI to AR glasses, with new products from Meta and others leading the market [18][19]. - Companies like Kangnait Optical are expected to benefit from the growing demand for integrated lens solutions [18]. Paper Industry - The report indicates a stabilization and potential rebound in paper prices, with companies like Sun Paper and Nine Dragons being key players to watch [20][22]. - The global market for pulp molding is also highlighted, with growth opportunities due to environmental considerations [16]. Home Furnishing - The report notes that the home furnishing industry is seeing accelerated consolidation, with companies like Gujia and Sophia being recommended for their strong market positions and dividend safety [23][25][27]. - The impact of real estate policies on the home furnishing market is discussed, with expectations for improved demand and valuation recovery [24][33].

Group 1 - The A-share market is currently in a phase of "pressure above and support below," with overall trading volume continuing to shrink, while only certain thematic sectors remain active [1] - The performance of the Shenwan first-level industries shows significant divergence, with non-ferrous metals and communications being the top performers, each with a year-to-date increase exceeding 85% as of December 23 [1] - In contrast, the food and beverage, coal, and beauty care sectors are underperforming, with the food and beverage sector experiencing a year-to-date decline of over 7%, potentially facing five consecutive years of negative returns if the trend does not reverse in the remaining trading days [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, institutions are optimistic about a potential turnaround in the food and beverage sector, noting that stock price turning points often precede fundamental turning points [2] - Guosen Securities highlights that the food and beverage sector has characteristics of "low base, low institutional holdings, and low valuation," and expects investment opportunities in this sector due to its relative valuation reaching a new low since 2011 [2] - Investment options include the food and beverage ETF (515170.SH) and its linked funds, as well as a food ETF that excludes liquor, which is currently being launched [2]

Core Viewpoint - The payment environment in China is becoming increasingly convenient, which is essential for stimulating consumer demand and supporting economic growth [1] Group 1: Payment Convenience for Foreign Tourists - Foreign tourists can now use their international cards directly for payments, eliminating the need to exchange large amounts of cash at airports [3] - Alipay's collaboration with American Express has expanded its "bind foreign card" service to cover seven major international card brands, achieving near-complete global coverage [3] - UnionPay's "Jinxiu Action 2025" has facilitated direct connections for 213 offline aggregation codes with foreign wallets, leading to a 103% increase in transaction volume and a 31% increase in transaction value for foreign card usage year-on-year [3] Group 2: Payment Solutions for the Elderly - The aging population in China necessitates improved payment solutions for the elderly, which is a significant aspect of consumer welfare [4] - Financial institutions have introduced various services tailored to the elderly, such as the "零钱包" (small change wallet), with 1.586 million issued in Chongqing alone by Q3 this year [4] - The introduction of "senior mode" in mobile banking apps aims to bridge the digital divide for older adults, reflecting a shift towards more inclusive financial services [4] Group 3: Policy Support for Payment Facilitation - The People's Bank of China and other departments have issued guidelines to enhance payment services for the elderly and foreign visitors, emphasizing the importance of payment convenience in boosting consumption [2] - Recent policies have further integrated payment facilitation with other services like visa and communication, highlighting a strategic approach to improving the payment environment for foreigners [2] Group 4: Broader Economic Implications - The advancements in payment convenience for both foreign tourists and the elderly are seen as vital for unlocking consumer spending and enhancing economic vitality [5][6] - Efforts to improve rural payment infrastructure and adapt payment systems to local needs are also underway, indicating a comprehensive approach to payment facilitation across different demographics [5]