Group 1 - Pre-market futures are down significantly as President Trump intensifies his trade war rhetoric, creating uncertainty for investors [1] - The Dow is down -560 points (-1.3%), S&P 500 down -90 points (-1.5%), Nasdaq down -400 points (-1.9%), and Russell 2000 down -45 points (-2.1%) [2] - Apple (AAPL) faces potential +25% tariffs on iPhones made overseas, contributing to a -3.5% drop in its stock, adding to a -19% loss year to date [3] - President Trump proposes a +50% tariff on imports from the European Union, which currently has a $160 billion trade surplus with the U.S. [4] Group 2 - New Home Sales for April are expected to decline to +695K from +724K in March, with the South seeing the most activity and the Northeast down -22% [6] - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in April was +6.88% [6]

以下文章来源于日经中文网 ，作者日经中文网 日经中文网 . 编制日经指数的《日本经济新闻》的中文版。提供日本、中国、欧美财经金融信息、商务、企业、高科技报道、评论和专栏。 "中国之所以强硬，是因为中国从第一次特朗普政府的贸易战以来，历经七年推进了相关准备，核心是推动经济结构转型，打造没有美国 也能生存的经济。2018年至今新增出口额超过1万亿美元，相当于中国每年对美出口额的两倍……" 文 丨桃井裕理 来源｜ 日经中文网（ID：rijingzhongwenwang） 封面来源 ｜ Unsplash 特朗普政府于美国东部时间14日凌晨0点1分（北京时间下午12点1分）将对中国的追加关税从145%下调了115%。对800美元以下 的小额货物征收120%的关税或每件100美元的关税，也一并降至54%。面对中国的反制，美国并未再反击，而是退让了。 美国对中国的追加关税目前是10%的基础对等关税税率，再加上之前以打击非法药品为名设定的20%，总共为30%。 特朗普于4月2日宣布对中国征收34%的对等关税，中国则采取了全面抗争的姿态而非谈判解决。美国将对等关税提高至84%、 125%，中国就以相同水平回应，最终美方对中方的 ...

Core Insights - The latest HSBC survey reveals that U.S. companies are the biggest victims of Trump's tariff policies, highlighting the irony of the situation [1][2] - Over half of U.S. companies expect their revenues to be impacted by at least 25% due to tariffs, with about a quarter predicting revenue declines of over 50% in the next two years [2] - The survey, covering over 5,700 international companies across 13 countries, indicates that concerns about tariffs have spread globally, with two-thirds of respondents experiencing rising costs due to trade uncertainties [2] Industry Impact - Companies are planning to reshape their supply chains, seek new markets, or alter their business models in response to tariff impacts [2] - The shift from cost-minimization to resilience in supply chain management poses significant challenges for businesses that have spent decades optimizing for cost [2]

Group 1 - The market has shown fatigue towards new developments in the trade war, with minimal reactions to recent tariff announcements from Trump and the EU's revised trade proposal [1][3] - Investor sentiment has shifted, with many believing that the actual impact of tariffs will be less severe than initially threatened, contributing to a steady rise in the S&P 500 over the past six weeks [1][3] - The sensitivity of the S&P 500 index to tariff news has significantly decreased since April, with only about one-third of daily fluctuations now related to tariff news, down from a peak of 80% [3] Group 2 - Multiple pressures are forcing Trump to adopt a more moderate tariff policy, particularly due to signals from the financial markets, such as widening credit spreads and stock market volatility [3] - The trade truce between the US and China, although temporary, has eased market tensions, and progress in the US-UK agreement is also noted, albeit slowly [3] - A trade policy uncertainty index has returned to pre-tariff announcement levels, indicating a significant reduction in tariff-related fears, although policy remains unpredictable [3] Group 3 - Despite a calm market in May following April's volatility, other risk factors are emerging, such as concerns over demand for US debt after Moody's downgraded the US AAA rating [3][4] - The stock market remains susceptible to macro shocks, but unless such shocks occur, fundamentals are expected to regain pricing power [4] - The market is entering a new phase characterized by divergence in data and opinions, leading to lower market correlation and individual stock performance being more influenced by micro fundamentals [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diversified trend, with different commodities and financial products affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationship, geopolitical risks, policy changes, and seasonal factors. Some products are expected to be volatile, while others may show a clear upward or downward trend [2][3][4] - For most commodities, the supply - demand relationship is the key factor affecting prices. For example, in the energy sector, the supply and demand of crude oil, natural gas, and refined oil products are affected by production policies, geopolitical situations, and seasonal demand changes; in the metal sector, the supply and demand of metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are affected by factors such as mining production, downstream consumption, and inventory levels [2][5][7] - Policy factors also have a significant impact on the market. For example, tax policies, trade policies, and environmental protection policies can all affect the production, consumption, and trade of commodities, thereby affecting prices [4][15][34] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices weakened, and the market is worried about the oversupply of crude oil. However, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East may increase the volatility of crude oil prices. Pay attention to the progress of the US - Iran nuclear talks on May 23 [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is relatively strong during the peak season, and the LU cracking spread has strengthened passively. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak, but the pre - peak power generation stocking demand in the Middle East and North Africa provides support, and the high - sulfur cracking spread is expected to fluctuate upward at a high level [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The domestic arrival price has declined, the import cost support has weakened, and the refinery gas price has been adjusted downward. The PDH start - up rate has declined, and the spot price is under pressure. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [23] - **Natural Gas**: Not mentioned in the content. - **Coal (Coking Coal, Coke)**: The prices of coking coal and coke are weak. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, the downstream iron - water production has peaked, and the prices are expected to fluctuate weakly under the influence of inventory and external sentiment [16][17] Metals - **Precious Metals (Gold, Silver)**: The economic data in the United States is resilient, and the price of precious metals has fallen. The international gold price shows resistance above the strong support level of $3000/ounce, and the idea of buying on dips is maintained [3] - **Base Metals (Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, etc.)**: - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated overnight. The US manufacturing PMI has rebounded, but the employment is relatively weak. The domestic spot copper premium has narrowed, and short positions above 78,000 yuan for the 2507 contract are recommended to be held [4] - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price fell slightly overnight. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased. The demand is facing seasonal weakening and trade frictions, but the inventory is at a low level. The Shanghai aluminum price will continue to test the resistance at the key position of 20,300 yuan [5] - **Zinc**: The supply of imported zinc ore is increasing, the refinery's raw material inventory is at a high level, and the supply is expected to be in surplus. The zinc price is expected to continue to be shorted [7] - **Lead**: Some overseas lead has flowed into the domestic market. The price of refined lead has decreased, and the social inventory has decreased. The LME lead inventory has increased significantly. The import window may open periodically, and the lead market is fundamentally weak [8] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The Shanghai nickel price rebounded and then fell under pressure. The market trading is light. The NPI price continues to decline, and the inventory of pure nickel and stainless steel is high. The Shanghai nickel price is at the end of another rebound, and short - sellers are advised to wait for new short - building opportunities [9] - **Tin**: The tin price fluctuated and closed down overnight. The low - grade tin mines are resuming production, and short positions are recommended to be maintained [10] - **Alumina**: The alumina price fell overnight. The risk of long - term shutdown in Guinea's mining areas exists, but it is not enough to reverse the annual ore surplus. The short - term price trend is strong, but the supply elasticity is large after the industry profit recovers, and the price may be under pressure below 3500 yuan [6] - **Ferroalloys (Silicon Manganese, Ferrosilicon)**: - **Silicon Manganese**: The price rebounded significantly. After the bidding of the benchmark steel mill, the price rebounded. The production has decreased, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The market expectation has improved, and the price may rise in the short term [18] - **Ferrosilicon**: The price fluctuated. The iron - water production is at a high level, the export demand is stable, and the demand is generally okay. The supply continues to decline, and the price is affected by tariffs. It may follow the upward movement of silicon manganese in the short term, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [19] Chemicals - **Polyethylene, Polypropylene, PVC, etc.**: - **Polyethylene**: The domestic supply pressure has weakened due to increased device overhauls, but the downstream products are in the off - season, and the social inventory is high, so the pressure is difficult to relieve [26] - **Polypropylene**: The upstream petrochemical enterprises continue to destock, and the terminal demand is weak. The market is mainly driven by trade - offs and price - cuts by traders, and the on - site sentiment is cautious [26] - **PVC**: The inventory has decreased, but the domestic demand is weak, the export is expected to weaken, and the supply is under pressure. The cost support is not obvious, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [27] - **Caustic Soda**: The start - up rate has increased slightly, the downstream replenishment demand has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The demand has not improved significantly, and the price increase is expected to be limited [27] - **Methanol, Benzene, Styrene, etc.**: - **Methanol**: The coal price is falling, the cost support is weak, the domestic supply pressure is large, and the import volume is expected to increase. The methanol market is in the off - season, and the inventory is expected to increase [24] - **Benzene and Styrene**: The low - price overseas pure benzene has impacted the far - month price in the East China market, and the cost support for styrene is insufficient. The supply in the East China main port has increased, and the price is under pressure [25] - **PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, etc.**: - **PX and PTA**: The PX price follows the oil price after valuation repair, and the PTA price is mainly affected by raw materials. The cash flow of polyester filament has improved significantly, and the industry is expected to reach a new balance and fluctuate after profit repair [28] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The industry profit has improved due to supply - side disturbances such as domestic overhauls and low import arrivals. The demand is expected to remain high, but there is supply pressure in the far - month. The month - spread is expected to fluctuate strongly [29] - **Short - Fiber, Bottle - Chip**: - **Short - Fiber**: Under the pressure of high start - up, the processing margin recovers slowly. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the processing margin recovery driven by supply - side changes [30] - **Bottle - Chip**: It is in the peak demand season, the production has continued to increase, the inventory is stable, and the industry processing margin is at a low level. If production cuts are implemented, attention can be paid to the processing margin recovery [30] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, etc.**: - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal market lacks a continuous upward driver. The domestic soybean supply is becoming more abundant, and the soybean meal production is increasing. The competitiveness of Brazilian soybeans has increased, and the short - term view is bearish [34] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The US soybean oil price is affected by the uncertainty of biodiesel policies, and the price volatility may increase. The palm oil production is in an increasing cycle overseas, and the domestic palm oil is under pressure from increased arrivals. The oil market is expected to fluctuate in a range [35] - **Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil**: The overnight rapeseed futures price fluctuated slightly. The weather premium in the North American oilseed - producing areas and the decline in the US soybean oil price offset each other. The rapeseed meal is expected to be stronger than the rapeseed oil today [36] - **Corn**: The Northeast corn spot price is slightly down, and the Shandong spot price is fluctuating weakly. The market - circulating grain source has increased, the port inventory is at a historical high, and the starch enterprise's start - up rate has decreased. The corn price is expected to fluctuate weakly [38] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price fell slightly. The domestic cotton import is low, the spot transaction is average, and the pure - cotton yarn market is lacking confidence. The Zhengzhou cotton price is driven by the positive news of Sino - US negotiations, and the inventory may be tight at the end of the season if the negotiations continue to improve. Temporary observation or a bull - spread option strategy is recommended [41] - **Sugar**: The US sugar price fluctuated overnight. The market is concerned about the Brazilian sugar production, and the supply is expected to be relatively bearish. The domestic sugar import has decreased, the sales are fast, and the inventory pressure is light. The sugar price is expected to fluctuate [42] - **Apples**: The apple futures price continued to fall. The market demand has decreased, and the cold - storage shipment speed has slowed down. The market is focusing on the new - season apple yield estimate, and temporary observation is recommended [43] - **Wood and Pulp**: - **Wood**: The wood futures price is running weakly. The supply pressure has decreased due to the decrease in the import price and the arrival volume, but the demand is in the off - season, and the price rebound power is insufficient. Temporary observation is recommended [44] - **Pulp**: The pulp price rose slightly yesterday. The downstream demand is weak, and the port inventory is high. The recent increase is mainly driven by macro factors, and the sustainability is cautious. Temporary observation or light - position buying on dips is recommended [45] Livestock and Poultry - **Pigs**: The pig futures price hit a new low, and the spot price also decreased significantly. The medium - and long - term supply of pigs is expected to increase, and the spot price is under downward pressure [39] - **Eggs**: The egg spot price fluctuated weakly, and the futures price hit a new low. Attention should be paid to the industry's capacity reduction after the egg - chicken farming losses. The short - term price may stop falling during the Dragon Boat Festival stocking period, but the long - term view is bearish [40] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market fluctuated lower yesterday, and the performance of stock - index futures contracts was differentiated. The US tax - cut bill has passed the House of Representatives, and the central bank will conduct MLF operations. The stock - index market is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and the style will be more balanced [46] - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury - bond futures price continued to fluctuate. The bond market's "technology board" is being promoted, and the short - term market risk preference is stable. The directional strategy is expected to return to shock, and the multi - variety strategy focuses on the steepening of the yield curve [47]

盖色金属数据日报 | 2025/05/23 | | 国贸期货出品 ITG 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | 节子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | 【铁矿石】产业定价为主 目前的综合关税仍然处于50%左右的高位。基于美国贸易战反复的行为下,暂时仅看黑色板块的反弹。目前阶段市场确实需 要考虑旺季结束后,钢材表需见顶回落,高铁水下库存的情况。本期铁水出现延续小幅下滑,但整体仍处于高位,钢厂利 不错的情况下,短期想要看到铁水的快速下滑是比较困难的。预期高铁水在5月份可以持续,到港稳定的情况下,港口库存 处于窄幅波动。不考虑限产因素的话,5月份炉料端并不会有额外的故事可以讲,铁矿依然处于震荡。5月之后,若钢材基 市场需要钢厂的自发性减产行为出现,那钢厂的利润的收缩则是必要条件,个人更偏向于材弱于矿。 【钢材】周度数据持稳,重点关注煤炭何时 ...

5月23日盘中，集运指数（欧线）期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至2256.0点。截止发稿， 集运指数（欧线）主力合约报2219.0点，涨幅2.46%。 集运指数（欧线）期货主力涨超2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 瑞达期货（002961） 集运指数（欧线）期价震荡幅度大 申银万国期货 集运06合约预计将继续窄幅波动 瑞达期货：集运指数（欧线）期价震荡幅度大 最新SCFIS欧线结算运价指数为1265.30，较上周回落37.32点，环比下行2.9%。美国调整对华加征关 税，于美东时间5月14日凌晨撤销对中国商品加征的共计91%的关税，调整实施34%的对等关税措施， 其中24%的关税暂停加征90天，保留剩余10%的关税。但近期特朗普对于进口药物的声明预示后续关税 的不确定性仍存，结合《声明》中的90天时限，8月后远月合约始终面临着贸易战再度升级的可能性。 此外，5月16日特朗普表示，将在"未来两到三周内"为美国的贸易伙伴设定新的关税税率，称其政府目 前没有能力与所有贸易伙伴同时展开谈判。在此背景下，贸易战不确定性尚存，叠加俄乌冲突有所升 级，集运指数（欧线）需求预期转冷，期价震荡 ...

Group 1 - The G7 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting concluded in Banff, Alberta, Canada, emphasizing the importance of unity in addressing complex global challenges [1] - The communiqué highlighted a consensus among participants that economic policy uncertainty has declined from its peak, while concerns about unsustainable global macroeconomic imbalances persist [1] - A call to action was issued to combat financial crimes, with Canada committing CAD 4.8 million in new technical assistance to developing economies [1] Group 2 - The G7 agreed to support the World Bank-led initiative to strengthen resilient and inclusive supply chains, with Canada pledging CAD 20 million for this purpose in Latin America and the Caribbean [1] - Participants acknowledged the risks associated with the increase of low-value goods imports into G7 markets [1] - Continued support for Ukraine was reiterated by all parties involved in the meeting [2]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser believes that China has the capability and determination to stimulate economic vitality and achieve its growth targets despite challenges from the US trade dispute [1][3] - Hauser observed that Chinese business leaders are generally confident about China's ability to gain an advantage in the trade war, with many believing that fiscal stimulus measures have positively impacted the economy since January [3][4] - The sentiment among Australian companies regarding collaboration with China is optimistic, supported by expectations of improved market conditions in early 2025 and confidence in the Chinese government's ability to maintain economic vitality [4] Group 2 - Hauser noted that the Chinese anticipate that the actual costs of US tariffs will be borne by the US itself, and there is a strong resolve in China not to mitigate this impact [4] - The general belief among the Chinese is that a significant depreciation of the yuan would lessen the impact of US tariffs on American consumers, but there is little support for this idea as China does not wish to alleviate the tariff burden on the US [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses the changing dynamics of U.S.-Japan relations, highlighting Japan's resilience in trade negotiations and its refusal to compromise national interests despite U.S. pressure [4][15][19] - It emphasizes the historical context of U.S. trade wars, particularly the impact on Japan's economy in the past, and draws parallels to current events [3][6][19] - The article notes the significant role of Japanese households, referred to as "Watanabe-san," in cross-border arbitrage and their recent struggles due to rising borrowing costs and currency fluctuations [9][10][11] Group 2 - The article points out the decline in U.S. Treasury bond ratings and its implications for liquidity in the banking sector, leading to increased selling pressure on bonds [6][7][8] - It highlights the interconnectedness of U.S. and Japanese financial markets, particularly in the context of currency exchange rates and the potential for significant volatility [22][23][24] - The article suggests that the Federal Reserve's actions and policies are in direct opposition to the current U.S. administration's trade strategies, indicating a potential internal conflict within U.S. economic policy [19][25]