消费·掘金 年报一季报总结电话会议 20250504 传统内需市场在当前宏观环境下存在底部反转机会。通过比较 2025 年的贸易 战与 2018 年的贸易战，可以看到两者在市场选择上的相似性。在 2018 年贸 易战后，市场于 2019 和 2020 年全面布局消费，包括传统消费与新能源车技 术路线落地。如果映射到当前环境，本次宏观政策取向对消费的正面影响远好 于 2018 年，同时路径也较为相似。因此，我们看好创新消费在后续复苏叠加 良好政策取向下实现成长。从今年三月社零数据超预期以及四月地产数据回稳 来看，如果五六月份能够持续证实一季度相关宏观数据企稳，那么下半年市场 可能会更为重视传统消费及白马公司的布局。特别是具备结构性提价能力的板 块和公司值得重点关注。此外，从去年（2024 年）第四季度到今年（2025 年）第一季度，新消费报表端逐渐超预期，估值空间已经打开，而很多新消费 公司的估值已达到较高水平，因此只要传统消费公司的报表端稍微改善，其上 涨逻辑将更加通畅。 食品饮料板块的表现如何？有哪些子赛道值得关注？ 食品饮料板块整体分化明显，其中许多子赛道相对传统，如白酒、啤酒、乳制 品和调味品等。偏传统 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Involved - **Companies**: 海天味业 (Haitian Flavoring & Food Co., Ltd.), 百润股份 (Bairun Co., Ltd.) - **Industry**: Food and Beverage, specifically focusing on sauces and alcoholic beverages Key Points and Arguments Inventory and Sales Performance - Haitian's sales may be underreported due to sales staff aiming to meet assessment targets, leading to actual inventory levels potentially exceeding reported figures by 0.5%, reaching 24.5% [1][2][3] - In Q2, Haitian aims for a 24% growth target, requiring an 11% increase compared to the previous year, which is challenging due to slower recovery in the dining market and reduced growth in residential channels [2][4] - Bairun's offline shipment in April dropped year-on-year, with major products like 强爽 (Qiangshuang) and 微醺 (Weixun) experiencing varying degrees of decline, increasing inventory pressure on distributors [1][16] Market Dynamics and Challenges - The salad dressing market underperformed in 2025 compared to 2024, lacking standout products and contributing less to overall sales [1][5] - The economic environment and declining prices of products like Rio have negatively impacted Bairun's sales volume and distributor profits, necessitating attention to market turning points and new product launches [1][6][22] - The overall growth in the dining sector was initially estimated at 5%, but actual growth in April was below 3%, with residential growth around 8-9%, both underperforming expectations [5] Strategic Adjustments - Haitian is increasing expenditure to combat fierce market competition, focusing on residential channels and supporting secondary network distributors to enhance market share [1][8] - Bairun is tightening sales expenses to maintain profit margins, with plans to increase spending if June sales do not meet expectations [1][41] Distributor Network and Support - Haitian categorizes distributors into primary and secondary networks, with secondary distributors focusing on new and niche products, receiving more support in terms of shipping, rebates, and promotional activities [9][10][11] - The secondary network comprises about 700 distributors, accounting for roughly 10% of the total, with a higher return on investment compared to primary distributors [12] Product Development and Market Trends - Potential high-growth products for 2025 include salad dressings, cooking wine, and vinegar, with expected growth rates of 30% for salad dressings and over 10% for vinegar [14] - The overall sales expenses for 2025 are projected to be controlled at levels similar to 2024, with adjustments based on actual sales performance [41][42] Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment has intensified, with new entrants and existing brands increasing their market presence, although overall industry demand remains weak [24] - The decline in channel profits is primarily concentrated in the 强爽 product line, while 微醺 and 清爽 products have shown relative stability [33] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a potential sales recovery around August 2025, contingent on new product launches and resolution of existing market issues [27] - Current market challenges include consumer downgrading, severe inventory accumulation among distributors, and credit limitations affecting overall channel profitability [28][29] Other Important but Overlooked Content - The company is actively managing inventory and addressing excess stock issues, although it has not allocated specific funds for these measures [29] - The overall inventory level is approximately 300 million boxes, with expectations to reach 500 million by year-end, indicating a need for improved inventory turnover [20][30] - The online sales performance for retail brands remains low, with less than 5% of sales coming from online channels, highlighting the challenges of competing with traditional retail [66][68]

摘要 消费最强音--大消费 5 月联合电话会议 20250505 • ID 新消费领域中，潮玩、积木人、卡牌玩偶及 IP 周边手办等细分行业值得 关注。国漫产业及其 IP 衍生品发展乐观，多部国漫电影上映预计取得良好 票房，带动相关周边产品市场规模快速增长。AI 应用在游戏、影视动漫、 电商教育等领域打开商业化空间。 • 出口型公司关税风险释放后迎来机会，9 号公司和石头科技一季度业绩超 预期，并上调全年业绩预期。TCL 电子预计 2025 年北美市场实现盈亏平 衡，华宝新能通过产品提价对冲关税影响，销量维持高增长。内需标的如 两轮车行业和白电龙头美的一季度业绩超预期。 • 医药板块创新药发展趋势明确，口服小分子减肥药市场潜力巨大。零售行 业一季度经营承压但企业分化显著，黄金珠宝和化妆品表现超出行业平均 水平。食品饮料行业一季度营收增长放缓，但利润有所改善，白酒行业低 速增长符合预期，大众消费领域零食板块表现突出。 TikTok、Instagram 等传播媒介对中国文化的推广有关。国内游呈现城市大休 闲、乡村微度假的态势，高星级酒店订单显著增加，同程旅行数据显示四星级 酒店订单同比增长 54%，五星级酒店订单 ...

华南一位基金经理告诉券商中国记者，"新消费市场潜力巨大，年轻消费群体引领的'悦己消费'和'情绪消费'越 来越热。" 另一位从业时间较久的基金经理对记者表示，"新消费赛道过于'新鲜'，自己是在资本市场先研究了这些新消 费赛道上市公司，然后才在线下开始留意这些公司。" 新消费赛道崛起。 "五一"假期消费市场再掀火热场面，新消费场景激发消费新活力。"五一"期间，广州萤火虫漫展人声鼎沸；分 布在上海不同商圈的近十余场漫展活动聚拢起超高人气；瞄准Z世代人群的泡泡玛特持续火爆，新品开售再掀 抢购狂潮；"携宠出行"刺激宠物经济迎来假日消费热潮。一些城市开始尝试打造"新消费品牌"标杆。 在二级投资市场，新消费赛道持续受到基金经理关注，一些尝鲜的基金经理正享受新消费赛道股价上涨带来的 高回报。 在今年基金业绩排行榜前列，一众科技、创新药等含"科"量较高主题基金霸屏，不过，重仓新消费的基金风头 渐盛，扛起"新消费"大旗。 新消费场景激发消费新活力 "五一"期间，当市场还在聚焦交通出行流量、景气门票、餐饮消费等诸多传统消费数据时，一些基金经理走 入"漫展"，关注"谷子"和潮玩，观察量贩零食门店分布。高铁宠物托运服务更是让基金经理感 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the vibrant night economy of Changsha, which operates 24/7 and attracts both locals and tourists, making it a unique urban center in China [1][2][10] - Changsha's night economy is supported by a strong cultural background, including popular television programs that have contributed to the city's national recognition [5][7] - The city faces challenges in sustaining its "internet celebrity" status and must adapt to ensure long-term economic viability [19][21] Group 1: Night Economy - Changsha's night economy employs over one million people and has consistently ranked among the top cities in China for night economic activity over the past five years [11] - The local climate and cultural preferences encourage a lifestyle where residents prefer to go out at night, contributing to the popularity of late-night dining and entertainment [12] - The city has developed ten key night economy demonstration districts and 200 night economy demonstration stores, indicating a structured approach to enhancing this sector [13] Group 2: Cultural Influence - The rise of Changsha as a cultural hub began around 2000 with the emergence of Hunan TV, which produced popular shows that increased the city's visibility [5][6] - The success of local brands like Wenheyou and Chayan Yuesheng illustrates how cultural elements can drive economic growth and attract tourism [9][10] Group 3: Challenges and Sustainability - Despite the initial success of brands like Wenheyou and Chayan Yuesheng, their attempts to expand outside Changsha have often resulted in failures due to various operational challenges [20][21] - The article emphasizes the need for Changsha to develop a sustainable economic model that can maintain its popularity and adapt to changing market conditions [19][23] - Experts suggest that while the city has a strong foundation in its night economy, it must enhance management capabilities and innovate to avoid the pitfalls of short-lived trends [21][23]

Core Insights - The new consumption market is experiencing significant growth, driven by younger consumer groups and innovative consumption scenarios [2][6][7] - New consumption stocks have become a focal point for investors, with notable price increases in various companies [2][3][5] - The investment logic in the consumption sector is shifting from total expansion to demand differentiation, highlighting the potential of new consumption companies [5][6] Group 1: New Consumption Trends - The "May Day" holiday showcased vibrant consumer activity, with events like comic exhibitions and the popularity of products targeting Generation Z [1][2] - Fund managers are increasingly focusing on new consumption scenarios, such as pet transportation services and trendy snacks, indicating a shift in investment focus [2][6] - The rise of "self-indulgent" and "emotional" consumption among younger demographics is driving market potential [2][6] Group 2: Stock Performance - New consumption concept stocks have seen substantial gains, with companies like Lao Pu Gold and Bubble Mart experiencing over 100% price increases this year [2][3] - In the A-share market, leading companies in the snack and pet economy sectors have also reported significant stock price increases, with Wanchen Group doubling in value [2][3] - The performance of traditional businesses adapting to new consumption trends, such as Ruoyu Chen, has also been notable, with stock prices rising significantly [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Fund managers are recognizing structural opportunities within the consumption sector, with a focus on new consumption companies that cater to younger consumers [4][5] - The investment approach is evolving, with an emphasis on identifying innovative nodes and capturing new opportunities rather than relying solely on traditional market leaders [6][7] - Future investment strategies will likely continue to prioritize new consumption sectors, including trendy toys, gold jewelry, and pet products, while also considering traditional consumption as macroeconomic conditions stabilize [6][7]

New Consumption Overview - The article discusses various new product launches and investment activities in the consumer sector, highlighting trends and innovations in the market [2][3][4][6][11]. Product Launches - Guozi Shule has launched a 100% fruit juice series, featuring products made from high-quality fruits sourced from specific regions in China [4]. - Wudao has introduced a blue algae protein coconut-flavored Greek yogurt, which contains 15g of blue algae protein per 100g [4]. - Camel has released China's first ePE membrane fluorine-free jacket, emphasizing health and environmental sustainability [4]. - Uni-President has revamped its iced tea line with a new "cola iced tea" product, increasing the packaging size from 500ml to 680ml [6]. - Luckin Coffee has partnered with Chengdu's tourism bureau to launch upgraded lemon tea products, incorporating Sichuan lemons [6]. Investment Activities - Manus AI, a general-purpose AI company, has secured $75 million in funding led by Benchmark, with participation from existing investors [7]. - Jinzi Ham announced a change in control, with Ren Guilong transferring 145 million shares, representing 11.98% of the company [7]. - SanDai Technology has completed a multi-million dollar funding round led by Matrix Partners, focusing on video generation AI technology [7]. - ABG Group is considering a competitive bid for Guess, currently evaluating its options against WHP Global's offer [7]. - Yasha Biotechnology has suspended its stock trading to focus on operational management and cost reduction [7]. Market Expansion - Yanjin Pupu plans to expand its konjac product market in Southeast Asia, expressing confidence in overseas market potential [11]. - Dongpeng Beverage has laid the foundation for a new production base in Hainan, which will be its 13th base nationwide, with an investment of at least 1.2 billion yuan and an expected annual output value of over 850 million yuan by 2027 [11]. - Taiping Bird has launched a new elite Polo series, aiming to redefine the traditional Polo aesthetic with modern materials and styles [11]. - The furniture brand Castlery has initiated its e-commerce operations in Canada, marking a significant step in its global expansion strategy [11]. - BOSS has collaborated with David Beckham to launch a joint design men's clothing series, inspired by Beckham's personal style [11].

Core Insights - The new consumption sector in the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing significant growth, driven by the popularity of immersive experiences and themed stores, particularly among younger consumers [1][2] - The three major players in this sector—Pop Mart, Laopu Gold, and Mixue Group—are seeing substantial increases in both performance and stock prices, attracting considerable attention from the capital market [1][2] Group 1: Company Performance - Pop Mart's revenue for 2024 is projected to grow by 106.9% to 13.04 billion, with adjusted net profit increasing by 185.9% to 3.4 billion [3] - Laopu Gold reported a revenue exceeding 8.5 billion for 2024, marking a 167.5% year-on-year increase, and net profit surged by 253.9% to 1.473 billion [3] - Mixue Group is also experiencing a surge in customer traffic, with flagship stores attracting long queues, indicating strong consumer interest [2] Group 2: Market Trends - The younger generation is becoming the main consumer force, showing a willingness to spend on experiences and products that resonate with their interests [4][5] - The new consumption sector has a low development base, providing ample growth opportunities, and fund managers are increasingly favoring investments in this area over traditional sectors [4][5] - The trend of creating unique IPs, as seen with Mixue's "Snow King," is enhancing brand recognition and emotional connection with consumers, contributing to the sector's growth [6][7] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The strong performance of new consumption brands is expected to continue, driven by innovative business models and a focus on consumer engagement [6][7] - The optimistic outlook for Hong Kong's new consumption brands in European markets suggests a reasonable valuation increase [5][6] - The overall market environment is conducive to the growth of new consumption, with healthy liquidity and a recovering risk appetite among investors [7]

Group 1: Core Views - The recent upgrades in stock ratings by brokerages are primarily concentrated in sectors with significant performance growth, rising industry sentiment, or turnaround situations, particularly in AI and robotics [2][5] - The number of stocks downgraded by brokerages has reached a year-to-date high, with notable downgrades in the coal and tourism sectors [5][6] Group 2: Upgraded Stocks - Multiple stocks in the AI and robotics sectors have received rating upgrades, including: - Platinum New Materials, with a projected net profit of 376 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 46.9% [2] - Huichang Communications, expected to achieve a net profit of 29 million yuan in 2024, turning profitable with a 12.28% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 [2] - Beijing Junzheng, with Q1 revenue of 1.06 billion yuan, a 5.3% year-on-year increase, and anticipated market recovery [3] - Keli Sensor, reporting a net profit of 76 million yuan in Q1, a nearly 76% year-on-year increase [3] - Nanshan Zhishang, recognized for its leading position in domestic wool spinning and new materials applications [3][4] Group 3: Downgraded Stocks - Several coal stocks have been downgraded, including: - Shanxi Coking Coal and Pingmei Shenma, downgraded to "overweight" due to weak coking coal prices [5] - Shanmei International, also downgraded to "overweight" despite low mining costs and potential production increases [5] - The tourism sector has seen downgrades, such as: - Jinjiang Hotels, with a Q1 net profit of 36 million yuan, down 81% year-on-year [5] - Miao Exhibition, downgraded due to declining revenue amid intensified competition [6] Group 4: Market Outlook - Brokerages are optimistic about AI and high-dividend sectors for May, with expectations of a continued oscillating market [7] - Recommendations include focusing on three main directions: financial dividends, self-sufficiency in industries like military, and domestic consumption [7] - The market is expected to follow a gentle recovery path, with attention on cyclical sectors and growth styles, particularly in AI and robotics [7]

Core Insights - The "May Day" holiday has seen a significant increase in new experiences and consumption driven by the integration of traditional culture and modern technology, with "night tourism" searches up over 60% year-on-year during the first three days of the holiday [1] Group 1: Tourism and Visitor Statistics - In Shandong's Zibo, the new tourism performance "Liaozhai" attracted over 100,000 visitors in the first three days, leading to a 10% increase in both visitor numbers and revenue, generating 8.23 million yuan in direct consumption [4] - The average daily visitor count at Xiqiao Mountain Scenic Area in Guangdong reached 50,000, a 200% increase compared to the same period in 2024, with overall tourism revenue growing by over 50% [14] Group 2: Technological Integration - The holiday featured the use of AI, robots, and smart lighting technologies, resulting in over a 20% year-on-year increase in ticket bookings for immersive experience attractions [6] - New media projection and sound-light-electric integration were employed in the "View·Mountain and Sea" show at the Great Wall, with a 95% occupancy rate for additional performances during the holiday [8] Group 3: Cultural Innovations - Traditional culture was creatively combined with modern elements, as seen in the new micro-dramas and cultural products in Zhengzhou, attracting significant visitor engagement [10] - A cross-disciplinary performance combining lion dance, Cantonese opera, and martial arts was launched in Foshan, enhancing the cultural experience with a creative fireworks show and lakeside concert [12] Group 4: Consumer Behavior Trends - New service consumption trends such as "traveling with AI" and "traveling with dragon boats" have gained popularity, with ticket transaction revenue from non-local visitors increasing by approximately 15% during the holiday [16]