摘要 3、 "反内卷"行情持续，周期板块逆势上涨，从历史行情看未来主线，如何做好资产配置？ 真话白话说财经，理财不说违心话 --这是第1381 篇白话财经- - 今天，A股三大指数震荡分化，沪指收红，创业板指跌超1%。不过个股涨多跌少，有超3200只个股上涨。 (图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/7/7，不作投资推荐） 两市成交额出现缩量，为1.21万亿元，盘面上，电力、地产、传媒等板块逆势上涨，创新药、贵金属等板块跌幅居前。 1、今天，A股三大指数出现震荡，沪指收红，创业板指跌超1%，个股涨多跌少，发生了什么？ 2、 强化高频交易监管，三大交易所新规正式实施，影响几何？A股冲击3500点能否成功？ 7月7日起，沪深北三大交易所《程序化交易管理实施细则》正式开始实施，将加强程序化交易监测监控，强化高频交易监管。 短期来看， 新规限制高频交易，使得 中小盘股活跃度下降，间接影响创业板流动性。 但长期来看，前海开源基金首席经家杨德龙表示，新规的发布有利于减少程序化交易对市场波动的影响、提振投资者信心，推动资本市场长期健康发 展。 2、板块分化，电力受利好政策上涨，科技承压。 今天，创新药 、消费电子等科 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The silicon ferroalloy market has experienced significant price fluctuations due to factors such as over - capacity, policy impacts, and changes in supply - demand balance. The current market is characterized by over - capacity, and the price trend is downward due to weak demand and the release of new production capacity [8][23][26]. - The core contradictions in the market include structural over - capacity, the buffering effect of energy - consumption dual - control policies, and the game between profit and policy [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic and Supply - Demand Background - From 2011 - 2015, the global financial crisis had a lingering impact, with slow economic recovery in Europe and the US. China's GDP growth rate dropped from 18.2% in 2011 to 7.1% in 2015, and supply - side reforms affected the steel industry chain, which in turn influenced the demand for silicon ferroalloy. From 2020 to the present, the pandemic led to a contraction in industrial and manufacturing demand, and later, infrastructure and export demand drove a V - shaped rebound in steel demand, supporting silicon ferroalloy demand but with limited pulling power [3]. Price Fluctuations - Due to over - capacity in the Chinese silicon ferroalloy industry and limited demand, prices dropped rapidly from 2013 - 2015 and 2022 - 2024. Policy shocks such as the implementation of supply - side reforms in 2016 and the energy - consumption dual - control policy in 2021 had a significant impact on the price, indicating a common driving mechanism between policy and capacity adjustment [8]. Capacity Changes - From 2011 - 2024, the national silicon ferroalloy production capacity increased from 6.5 million tons to 11.024 million tons, an expansion of nearly 70%. There was a significant increase in capacity in regions like Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi. From 2011 - 2015, there was an acceleration in capacity investment, followed by a phase of capacity replacement [11]. - Currently, the average capacity utilization rate of silicon ferroalloy has not exceeded 62% since 2023, and only Inner Mongolia has maintained a relatively high capacity utilization rate. The annual output of silicon ferroalloy has stabilized at around 5.5 million tons, with Inner Mongolia and Ningxia having relatively large market shares [13]. Policy Impacts - In 2011, 2.127 million tons of ferroalloy production capacity was eliminated, and in 2014, 2.343 million tons was eliminated, including small - scale ore - heating furnaces of various ferroalloys. In 2016, supply - side reforms led to the elimination of backward production capacity in the steel industry [16]. - In 2021, the energy - consumption dual - control policy led to power and production restrictions in major production areas. Inner Mongolia implemented a policy to withdraw the production capacity of ore - heating furnaces below 25,000KVA and 30,000KVA. Other provinces also carried out power and production restrictions to meet energy - consumption targets, which initially led to an expected supply contraction and price increase, but later the supply did not actually decrease significantly [17][18][19]. Current Market Situation - In 2021, although the silicon ferroalloy industry was affected by the energy - consumption dual - control policy, the actual reduction in production at the industrial level was limited, and the overall supply remained high. Compared with 2013, the total industry capacity expanded by nearly 70% while the annual output was similar. Weak demand due to a pessimistic real - estate environment led to a downward price trend [23]. - As of July 2025, the over - capacity problem remains unsolved. The prices of electricity and semi - coke, which account for about 60% and 14% of the current silicon ferroalloy cost respectively, are the main short - term drivers of price changes. The price of silicon ferroalloy continues to decline [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The suspension of the "reciprocal tariff" for 90 days has been postponed from July 9 to August 1, keeping investors' risk appetite at a high level. Amid the rising expectation of the second supply - side reform, corresponding investment opportunities are worth exploring. In the equity market, pay attention to industries with low capacity utilization; in the bond market, uncertainty may bring some benefits, but the downward space of interest - rate bonds is limited; for commodities, gold is expected to benefit from the increased risk - aversion sentiment and has short - term long - making opportunities [12]. 3. Summary by Related Information Stock Market - In the past week (20250630 - 20250706), U.S. stocks rose, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changing by 1.62%, 1.72%, and 2.30% respectively, while the Nasdaq China Technology Index fell by 0.60%. The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.52% [2]. - Most A - share sectors or industries rose. The Wind All - A Index rose 1.22%. From a style perspective, in the Shanghai market, blue - chips rose and growth stocks fell; in the Shenzhen market, both blue - chips and growth stocks rose, and the North Securities 50 Index fell. Among 30 CITIC industries, 25 rose, led by steel, banking, building materials, and medicine with weekly gains of over 3.50% [3]. Bond Market - In the past week (20250630 - 20250706), the price of interest - rate bonds rose slightly, and the yield curve steepened. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.05%, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond fell 0.29 BP to 1.6433%. Most maturity yields declined, with larger declines in maturities of 6 months and less [4]. - The capital price dropped significantly, and the central bank conducted a net withdrawal in the open - market operations. As of July 4, 2025, R007 was 1.4881%, down 43.20 BP from June 27, 2025; DR007 was 1.4222%, down 27.46 BP. The central bank net withdrew 1375.3 billion yuan in the past week [5]. - The bond - market leverage level decreased. The 7 - day capital cost is higher than the 5 - year Treasury bond yield. The trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase (5 - day average) decreased from 7.77 trillion yuan on June 27, 2025, to 7.60 trillion yuan on July 4, 2025 [6]. - U.S. Treasury yields increased, and the curve shifted upward. As of July 4, 2025, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose 6 BP to 4.35%. Yields of all maturities increased, with larger increases in maturities of 7 years and less [7][8]. Foreign Exchange and Commodity Market - The U.S. dollar depreciated, and the price of gold rose. In the past week (20250630 - 20250706), the U.S. dollar index fell 0.28%. The price of London gold spot rose 1.84% to $3331.90 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures rose 1.94% to $3332.50 per ounce. Domestic Shanghai gold also rose [9]. Policy and Events - The Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission may raise expectations for the second - round supply - side reform. The meeting mentioned governing low - price and disorderly competition and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity. Industries such as food manufacturing, chemical raw materials and products manufacturing have low capacity utilization [10]. - The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the U.S. officially came into effect, which may increase the U.S. fiscal deficit. The act involves large - scale tax cuts, structural adjustment of fiscal expenditures, and raising the debt ceiling. The CBO estimated that it will add $3.25 trillion in deficits in the next 10 years [11].

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 各行业如何"反内卷"？ ❖ 核心观点 近期市场对供给侧改革的关注升温，参照综合求是、人民日报、工信部等官方 表态，反内卷的重点行业或包括光伏、锂电、新能源汽车、电商平台等。结合 数据可得性与行业进展，我们重点关注 5 个产业，近期其基本面均面临一定压 力，例如光伏价格偏弱但生产端持续偏强、汽车销售折扣率再度提升、钢铁水 泥价格仍然偏弱、生猪行业临近亏损等。从其反内卷措施来看，以行业自律、 行政指导、舆论监督为主，按照约束力排序，或是钢铁>生猪>汽车>水泥>光 伏，关注后续落地进展。 ❖ 一、政策如何定调？ 什么是"内卷式"竞争？参考求是中的界定，既包括企业端的低价竞争、同质 化竞争、与过度宣传营销，也包括政府端的"制造…不公平非普惠的优惠政策"、 "不顾地方产业基础和资源禀赋情况，盲目上马新兴产业、重点产业"、"保护 本地市场、扶持本地企业，设置或明或暗的市场壁垒"。 主要涉及哪些行业？综合求是、人民日报、工信部等官方表态，反内卷的重点 行业或包括光伏、锂电、新能源汽车、电商平台等。 如何"反内卷"？参照求是《深刻认识和综合整治"内卷式"竞争》的阐述， 反内卷需 ...

Group 1: Economic Overview - The US economy is showing signs of slowing down, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicting a 2.6% annualized GDP growth for Q2, down 0.3 percentage points from previous estimates [2] - Employment data indicates a divergence from economic trends, with initial jobless claims decreasing to 233,000, below seasonal levels, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1% [2] - Long-term inflation expectations have slightly increased, with the 5-year breakeven inflation rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 2.4% [3] Group 2: US Market Reactions - The US stock market rose by 1.7% due to stronger-than-expected employment data, alleviating concerns about economic slowdown from trade policy uncertainties [3] - The likelihood of interest rate cuts has diminished, with expectations returning to two cuts of 50 basis points, and the probability of a July cut dropping to zero [3] - The bond market is expected to maintain high volatility, with strategies suggesting a focus on short to medium-term US bonds [4] Group 3: China Economic Insights - China's economic growth is projected at approximately 5.2% for Q2, with June manufacturing PMI at 49.7, indicating a slight contraction [6] - Real estate investment is expected to decline significantly, with cumulative growth projected to drop to -11.2% due to seasonal factors and high base effects from last year [6] - External demand for Chinese exports may recover, aided by the easing of trade restrictions with the US and a rebound in US import demand [7] Group 4: Domestic Market Dynamics - The domestic market is influenced by the central government's focus on "anti-involution" policies, which are expected to lead to significant policy announcements in the second half of the year [8] - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index rise by 1.4%, driven by strong performance in banking and sectors benefiting from supply-side reforms [10] - The bond market experienced slight gains, with a balanced outlook expected in the short term, while potential policy adjustments could increase market volatility [9] Group 5: Currency and Commodity Outlook - The US dollar is expected to weaken in the medium term due to concerns over US debt sustainability and rising uncertainties from tariff suspensions [4] - The Chinese yuan is anticipated to maintain a neutral trend, influenced by both positive and negative factors in the trade environment [4] - Gold prices may experience short-term fluctuations but are expected to have strong medium-term support due to ongoing central bank purchases [4]

#报告 高盛在供给侧改革情境下对中国水泥与钢铁的行业展望。 https://t.co/pzOST65SWoNone (@None):None ...

Group 1: Steel Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revised the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions" in February 2025, which is expected to help restore profitability in the steel sector to historical average levels [3] - The steel sector is undergoing a two-tier evaluation system for "standard enterprises" and "leading standard enterprises," aligning with the broader policy goal of better adapting supply-side to demand changes [3] Group 2: Non-ferrous Metals - The price of electric carbon has risen for the first time in five months, and the price of electrolytic cobalt has reached a one-month high, indicating a positive outlook for the metal new materials sector [4] - Lithium prices have dropped to around 60,000 yuan/ton, with potential for accelerated capacity exit; companies with cost advantages and resource expansion in the lithium sector are recommended for attention [4] - The export ban on cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo has been extended for three months, and tungsten prices remain at their highest since 2013 [4] Group 3: Oil and Chemical Industry - In H1 2025, the oil market experienced significant volatility due to geopolitical events and OPEC+ production increases, leading to a downward trend in oil prices [5] - As of June 30, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were reported at $66.63 and $64.97 per barrel, reflecting declines of 11.0% and 9.6% respectively since the beginning of the year [5] Group 4: Construction and Building Materials - The scarcity of orbital frequency is driving competition, and the construction of low-orbit satellite constellations in China is entering an accelerated phase [6] - Shanghai Port has strategically positioned itself in the satellite energy system sector, having supported the launch of 15 satellites and over 40 sets in orbit, which is expected to benefit from the rapid development of low-orbit satellites [6] Group 5: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - In May, the number of pigs slaughtered increased, maintaining a micro-profit level for the industry [7] - As of July 4, the average price of external three-bred pigs was 15.35 yuan/kg, up 4.28% week-on-week, while the average price of 15 kg piglets was 31.33 yuan/kg, down 0.85% week-on-week [7] Group 6: Renewable Energy and Public Utilities - The "anti-involution" policy will be a key focus for government work in Q3 2025, with an emphasis on price strategies to combat deflation and assist local governments in debt reduction [6] - The market is closely watching whether outdated production capacity can exit quickly, with expectations for demand in H2 2025 or 2026 [6] Group 7: Automotive Industry - Wuxi Zhenhua has exceeded expectations in core customer orders, driven by both stamping and electroplating, leading to stable growth in performance [8] - Xiaomi's first SUV, the YU7, achieved over 289,000 pre-orders within one hour of its launch, indicating strong product and brand power [8] - Wuxi Zhenhua has established a stable partnership with Xiaomi, with the automotive sector expected to contribute significantly to the company's revenue [8]

7月7日盘中，多晶硅期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至36525.0元。截止收盘，多晶硅主力 合约报36515.0元，涨幅2.86%。 多晶硅期货主力涨近3%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 广州期货 市场博弈或加剧多晶硅盘面波动 中泰期货 多晶硅暂时观望 从消息面来看，继中央强调将依法依规治理低价无序竞争、推动落后产能有序退出，随后工信部召开光 伏行业座谈会，落实党中央、国务院决策部署，聚焦加快推动光伏产业高质量发展。从基本面来看，由 于四川、新疆、青海个别企业复产，7月供应存在小幅增加预期，下游硅片价格继续承压下行，表明需 求已逐步转弱，行业维持供增需减格局。综合而言，由于"反内卷"等利好消息发酵提振市场情绪，市场 对于出台供应调控政策预期升温，短期对盘面仍有支撑。但宽松格局尚未难扭，在强预期与弱现实情况 下，市场博弈或加剧盘面波动，建议合理控制仓位。策略上，谨慎资金观望，激进资金波段操作，主力 合约PS2508合约参考区间（33000，37000） 中泰期货：多晶硅暂时观望 多晶硅强预期弱现实，政策预期进一步夯实，预计盘面继续偏强运行，现实过剩矛盾的修正，需要持续 关注后续 ...

Group 1: Interest Rate and Fundamentals - DRO01 closed at 1.31 with a -0.10bp change, DR007 at 1.42 with a -4.52bp change, GC001 at 1.43 with a 28.00bp change, and GC007 at 1.49 with a 0.00bp change [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.60 with a -0.90bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change [4] - 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.34 with a -1.20bp change, 5 - year at 1.49 with a -0.40bp change, 10 - year at 1.64 with a 0.20bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.35 with a 5.00bp change [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 6522 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and had 20275 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, resulting in a net withdrawal of 13753 billion yuan [4] - This week, 6522 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature, with 3315 billion, 1310 billion, 985 billion, 572 billion, and 340 billion maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4] - Last week, the inter - bank market liquidity further eased, and the weighted average interest rate of overnight pledged repurchase of deposit - type institutions dropped 4.47bp to 1.315%, hitting a new low since December 2024 [5] Group 2: Stock Index and Market Conditions - The CSI 300 closed at 3982 with a 0.36% change, the SSE 50 at 2740 with a 0.58% change, the CSI 500 at 5911 with a -0.19% change, and the CSI 1000 at 6312 with a -0.48% change [6] - The trading volume of IF was 126007 with a 71.2% change, IH was 66223 with a 93.8% change, IC was 99284 with a 52.8% change, and IM was 250280 with a 53.6% change [6] - The positions of IF were 266026 with an 11.3% change, IH were 97738 with a 21.2% change, IC were 236528 with a 7.3% change, and IM were 351204 with a 9.1% change [6] - Last week, the CSI 300 rose 1.54% to 3982.2, the SSE 50 rose 1.21% to 2740.4, the CSI 500 rose 0.81% to 5911.4, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.56% to 6312.2 [6] - Last week, the daily trading volumes of A - shares were 14056 billion, 13865 billion, 13122 billion, 12450 billion, and 13540 billion yuan, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 414.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] - As of July 3, the margin trading purchase amount of A - shares accounted for 9.6% of the total market trading volume, at the 75.4% quantile level in the past decade [6] - Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, last week, steel (5.1%), building materials (4%), banks (3.8%), pharmaceutical biology (3.6%), and comprehensive (2.8%) led the gains, while computer (-1.3%), non - bank finance (-0.7%), transportation (-0.2%), commercial retail (-0.2%), and communication (-0.1%) led the losses [6] Group 3: Market Outlook - Domestically, after the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, the "involution - style" competition has attracted high attention. The market expects more special policies to curb excessive competition, and the supply - side of photovoltaic, steel, and cement may improve [7] - Overseas, US President Trump said on July 3 that he would start sending letters to trading partners on the 4th to set unilateral tariff rates, and countries would start paying new tariffs from August 1st, with tariff rates ranging from 10% - 20% to 60% - 70% [7] - In the short term, although market liquidity is okay, there are few positive factors at home and abroad. It is difficult for the stock index to break through upwards and may show a volatile pattern [7] - In the long - term, looking at the second half of the year, the Politburo meeting at the end of July will set the policy tone. Given the possible further deterioration of real estate sales and investment and the overall weakness of consumption, policies are expected to support domestic demand. Meanwhile, the US tariff policy is undetermined, and with the approaching Fed rate - cut time, overseas liquidity and geopolitical changes will bring trading opportunities [7] Group 4: Futures Premium and Discount - IF's premium/discount rates are 14.06% for the current - month contract, 8.57% for the next - month contract, 5.65% for the current - quarter contract, and 4.59% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IH's premium/discount rates are 19.36% for the current - month contract, 7.74% for the next - month contract, 4.13% for the current - quarter contract, and 2.04% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IC's premium/discount rates are 19.16% for the current - month contract, 13.96% for the next - month contract, 12.02% for the current - quarter contract, and 10.01% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IM's premium/discount rates are 24.19% for the current - month contract, 18.19% for the next - month contract, 15.42% for the current - quarter contract, and 13.24% for the next - quarter contract [8]

Group 1: Coal Industry Overview - The coal industry is expected to maintain a balanced supply and demand in 2024, with domestic production initially declining before increasing, and imports exceeding expectations throughout the year [4] - National coal production is projected to reach 4.759 billion tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.16%, with an additional 101 million tons compared to the previous year [4] - The major coal-producing regions, including Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia, are expected to contribute 3.89 billion tons, accounting for 81.7% of total production, with significant capacity increases in Xinjiang [4] Group 2: Financial Performance of Coal Companies - In 2024, sample coal companies are expected to see a decline in net profit due to falling coal prices and rigid costs, despite an increase in production [4][5] - The average coal sales price for 25 sample coal companies is projected to be 622 RMB/ton, a decrease of 7.54% year-on-year, while the average net profit per ton is expected to drop by 21.48% to 92.49 RMB/ton [4] - The total dividend amount declared by these companies is estimated at 87.9 billion RMB, a decrease of 14.99% year-on-year, with the dividend payout ratio increasing to approximately 60.82% of net profit [4] Group 3: Investment Strategy in Coal Sector - The market anticipates lower performance in the coal sector, but leading companies are expected to outperform expectations through cost reduction and efficiency improvements [5] - The investment strategy suggests focusing on undervalued companies with strong performance support, such as Xinjie Energy and Huahua Energy, while also considering companies with significant non-coal business [5] - The report highlights the attractiveness of high-dividend stocks and stable high-dividend varieties, recommending companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal Industry for their strong financial returns [5] Group 4: Telecommunications Industry Insights - Huawei's recent release of the Cloudmatrix384 technology significantly enhances inference efficiency through a soft-hard collaborative approach [6] - The CM384 architecture utilizes a fully interconnected UB bus to minimize communication latency, allowing for efficient workload management across 384 NPUs and 192 CPUs [6][7] - The report indicates a positive outlook for the computing power sector in Q2, driven by significant AI deployment projects across Europe and the easing of market sentiment [7] Group 5: Company-Specific Analysis - Daqo New Energy - Daqo New Energy is experiencing short-term pressure on performance but maintains a strong cash position with 4.32 billion RMB in liquid assets [8][12] - The company has proactively reduced production to manage inventory, with a projected production of 11-14 thousand tons of polysilicon in 2025 [12] - The stock buyback and share cancellation plan reflects the company's confidence in future growth and aims to enhance financial metrics such as earnings per share [16]