【冠通研究】 上涨受阻 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 3 日 【策略分析】 今日尿素盘面高开低走，日内偏强整理。昨日期货翻红后，尿素现货成交 有好转，部分工厂上调报价，但成交量一般。基本面来看，供应端本周继续检 修与复产并行，山西兰花将进行两月左右的检修，河南晋开近日也有检修计 划，日产波动幅度小，近日供给侧改革消息刺激市场对产能产量的担忧，对尿 素影响相对较小，但近期高温临检期间，日产可能有小幅减少。需求端，整体 需求弱稳，农需备货在收尾阶段，复合肥工厂开工负荷维持低位，继续去化库 存为主，目前处于秋季肥前期阶段，内需整体支撑有限。本期库存继续去化， 主要依然依赖于出口的快速集港。整体来看，昨日大宗商品均有不同程度的上 涨，盘面上涨后，现货端更近有限，需求不足，尿素价格上涨受阻，上方关注 1740 左右压力位。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1739 元/吨高开低走，日内偏强震荡，最终 收于 1737 元/吨，收成一根阴线，涨跌+0.4%，持仓量 222192 手（-1691 手）。 前二十名主力持仓席位来看，多头-1541 手，空头-1993 手。其中，宏源期货净 多单增加 483 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, PE, PVC [1] - **Bearish**: Silver, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Carbonate Lithium, Cotton, Pulp, Logs, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Gold, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Carbonate Lithium, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coke, Sinter, Ferroalloy, Glass, Soda Ash, Bitumen, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, PE, PP, PVC, Chlor - Alkali [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, market trading volume is gradually shrinking, and with mediocre domestic and foreign positive factors, the stock index faces resistance in breaking upward and may show an oscillating pattern. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space. The price of gold is supported by factors such as renewed tariff uncertainties and the passage of the US tax - reform bill in the Senate, but the slowdown of the US dollar index decline requires vigilance against the suppression of the gold price by a staged rebound. The macro and commodity attributes support the silver price, but the fundamentals limit its upside. Copper prices are strong in the short term due to the recovery of market risk appetite and the fermentation of the squeeze - out situation of US copper and LME copper. Aluminum prices are strong due to the low - level operation of electrolytic aluminum inventories and the improvement of market risk appetite. The overall market sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to the progress of tariffs and changes in domestic and foreign economic data [1]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Short - term upward breakthrough is difficult, may oscillate, and follow - up focus on macro incremental information [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term upward space is restricted by interest - rate risk warning [1] - **Gold**: Supported by tariff uncertainties and tax - reform bill, but beware of the impact of the US dollar index rebound [1] - **Silver**: Supported by macro and commodity attributes, but limited by fundamentals [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Strong in the short term due to risk - appetite recovery and squeeze - out situation [1] - **Aluminum**: Strong due to low inventory and improved market sentiment [1] - **Alumina**: Maintains a strong operation [1] - **Zinc**: Affected by news in the short term, beware of risks in short - selling [1] - **Nickel**: Rebounds in the short term but limited upside, long - term surplus pressure exists [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term oscillating rebound, long - term supply pressure remains [1] - **Tin**: Rebounds due to improved macro sentiment, follow - up focus on imports [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Bullish due to production cuts and high market sentiment [1] - **Polysilicon**: Bullish due to supply - side reform expectations and high market sentiment [1] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Oscillates due to stable supply and weak downstream procurement [1] Black Metals - **Rebar**: Oscillates due to short - term factory production restrictions [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Oscillates due to short - term factory production restrictions [1] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillates with limited upside due to factory production restrictions and high short - term demand [1] - **Sinter**: Price is under pressure due to increased short - term production and weakening demand [1] - **Ferroalloy**: Excess pressure remains due to cost and demand factors [1] - **Glass**: Supply is stable in the short term, demand is resilient, but medium - term supply - demand surplus exists [1] - **Soda Ash**: Supply is disturbed, but demand is weak, and cost support is weakened [1] - **Coke**: Similar to coking coal, focus on futures premium for selling hedging [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Bullish in the short term, follow - up focus on hearings and supply - demand reports [1] - **Soybean Oil**: Similar to palm oil [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Similar to palm oil [1] - **Cotton**: Expected to oscillate weakly, affected by trade negotiations and weather in the short term, and macro uncertainties in the long term [1] - **Sugar**: Brazilian production is expected to increase, and pay attention to the impact of crude oil on the sugar - production ratio [1] - **Corn**: Expected to oscillate, with limited decline in the futures market, and C01 can be shorted at high prices [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Near - term inventory is expected to accumulate, and MO1 can be bought at low prices [1] - **Pulp**: Bearish due to falling prices, increased shipments, and weak domestic demand [1] - **Logs**: Weak due to off - season and limited supply decline [1] - **Live Pigs**: Futures are stable due to the continued recovery of inventory and limited decline in spot prices [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oscillates due to geopolitical cooling, possible OPEC+ production increase, and consumption - season support [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil [1] - **Asphalt**: Bearish due to cost drag, possible tax - refund increase, and slow demand recovery [1] - **Natural Rubber**: Bearish due to weakening demand, expected production increase, and inventory increase [1] - **BR Rubber**: Weak in the short term, follow - up focus on price adjustments and de - stocking progress [1] - **PTA**: Oscillates due to weakening basis, delayed plant maintenance, and strong PX floating [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Bearish due to large expected arrivals and negative macro - sentiment impact [1] - **Short - Fiber**: Oscillates, with low warehouse - receipt registration and cost following closely [1] - **Styrene**: Bearish due to weakening speculative demand, increased device load, and strong basis [1] - **PE**: Oscillates strongly due to good macro - sentiment, many overhauls, and rigid demand [1] - **PP**: Oscillates strongly due to limited overhaul support, rigid orders, and market sentiment [1] - **PVC**: Oscillates strongly due to policy support, upcoming new - device production, and seasonal demand changes [1] - **Chlor - Alkali**: Oscillates, follow - up focus on liquid - chlorine changes [1] - **LPG**: Bearish due to price cuts, seasonal demand decline, and narrow price difference [1] - **Container Shipping European Line**: Expected to peak in mid - July, with sufficient subsequent capacity [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The black sector led the rise on Wednesday, driven by the "anti - involution" concept, but without substantial supply - side policies, the positive impact on profits and prices may not last. In the off - season, there is no strong rebound drive for the black sector [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the spot market is performing well, but the current situation is not comparable to the 2015 supply - side reform bull market. Short - term empty orders are advised to be avoided, and industrial customers can build cash - and - carry positions [5]. - In the silicon iron and manganese silicon market, trading is based on the "anti - involution" policy expectation, with prices oscillating strongly. Industrial customers should conduct futures - cash hedging [6]. - For iron ore, it is in an oscillating range, and attention should be paid to whether the "anti - involution" sentiment can drive it to break through the upper limit [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On July 2, the closing prices of far - month and near - month contracts of steel futures all rose, with the far - month RB2601 rising 2.46% and the near - month RB2510 rising 2.61%. The basis of hot - rolled coils and rebar changed, with the HC basis falling 45 yuan/ton and the RB basis rising 8 yuan/ton. In the current environment, there is no strong rebound drive for the black sector. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and focus on the time node for entering cash - and - carry positions [2][4][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, coking coal auction transactions were good, and most prices rose. On the futures side, affected by the news of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, the black sector except coking coal hit new highs. The iron - making water output remained above 241wt, but the market worried about off - season risks. It is recommended that short - term empty orders be avoided, and industrial customers should build cash - and - carry positions [5]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - The market is trading on the "anti - involution" policy expectation, with an overall bullish sentiment. The supply of silicon iron is increasing slightly, and demand is also rising. The supply of manganese silicon is rising, and demand is supported. It is recommended to buy call options at low prices [6][8]. Iron Ore - The Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting on governance has made the supply - side reform ferment. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of production restrictions on iron - making water and whether the production - restriction storm will spread. Iron ore is in an oscillating range, and it is recommended to short when the price reaches the upper limit of the range [7][8].

Group 1: Overview of "Anti-Involution" Concept - The "Anti-Involution" concept was first introduced by the Central Committee a year ago, and it is expected to enter a new phase during the upcoming July Politburo meeting[1] - The focus of the upcoming meeting will be on addressing low-price and disorderly competition among enterprises, indicating a shift in strategy[1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to be released in the second half of the year, emphasizing the strengthening of domestic circulation and integrating "Anti-Involution" as a key topic[1] Group 2: Gains and Losses in the Past Year - The "Anti-Involution" initiative has gained traction at the top-level design, appearing in several important national meetings, suggesting it will be a main theme in the "14th Five-Year Plan" period[2] - However, issues related to "involutionary" competition remain unresolved, with industrial capacity utilization rates still low, and a significant decline observed in the first quarter of this year[2] - The industrial profit margin has dropped to 5.3% in May, indicating negative impacts on operational efficiency due to "involutionary" competition[2] Group 3: Focus Areas for Current "Anti-Involution" Efforts - Current efforts should concentrate on addressing macroeconomic supply-demand imbalances, particularly in sectors like new energy vehicles, photovoltaic components, and e-commerce platforms[3] - Manufacturing sectors, especially electrical machinery, computer communications, and automotive industries, are identified as having more pronounced "involution" issues[3] - The government is expected to implement targeted measures in these key industries to mitigate "involution" challenges[3] Group 4: Future Directions and Risks - Future "Anti-Involution" strategies will rely on industry self-regulation, but progress may be slow; specific plans for resolving structural contradictions in key industries are anticipated post-July Politburo meeting[4] - Historical experiences from the "Supply-Side Reform" period suggest that quantitative KPIs for capacity reduction will be introduced for key industries[4] - Risks include potential policy shortcomings, unexpected changes in the domestic economic landscape, and unforeseen fluctuations in exports[4]

铜冠金源期货分析称，消息面，唐山地区持续限产管控，预计铁水产量将有所回落。供应端，本周港口 库存小幅回落，因为海外发运与到港均环比回落，但发运绝对量处于近三年同期最高水平，供应压力不 减。政策预期提振市场情绪，预计铁矿震荡偏强。今日关注钢材减产情况。 7月3日，国内期市黑色金属板块全线飘红。其中，铁矿石期货主力合约开盘报724.5元/吨，今日盘中高 位震荡运行；截至发稿，铁矿石主力最高触及729.0元，下方探低721.5元，涨幅达1.89%附近。 目前来看，铁矿石行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于铁矿石后市行情将如何运行，相关机构 观点汇总如下： 新世纪期货指出，近期铁矿石现货价格偏弱，盘面受情绪影响拉涨，基差继续收窄。本期全球铁矿石发 运总量、到港量双双下滑，但整体处于近年来同期高位水平，后期铁矿发运有冲量预期，到港压力或增 大。产业端淡季，五大钢材产量增，铁水淡季不淡，铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，240以上的高铁水仍旧 能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水状况。供给侧改革消息扰动叠加唐山限产带动黑色价格上涨，原料跟 涨。中长期看，铁矿石整体呈现供应逐步回升、需求相对低位、港口库存步入累库通道的局面，铁矿供 需过 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating Bullish [8] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [9] - **Corn/Starch**: Oscillating [9][10] - **Hogs**: Oscillating Bullish [11][12][13] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [14][16] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [17] - **Cotton**: Oscillating [18][20] - **Sugar**: Oscillating [21] - **Pulp**: Oscillating Bearish [22] - **Logs**: Oscillating Bearish [23][24] 2. Core Views of the Report - The improvement in the macro - level drives the rebound of agricultural products. Different agricultural products show various trends due to factors such as policy, supply - demand, and macro - environment [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs (1)行情观点 - **Oils and Fats**: The US biodiesel policy boosts demand expectations, and oils and fats may continue to oscillate upward. The US Senate's passing of the fiscal spending bill including the 45Z tax credit and Brazil's plan to increase the biodiesel blending ratio are positive factors. However, factors like OPEC +'s August production policy, trade relations, and crude oil prices need attention [8]. - **Protein Meal**: It will oscillate within a range, and long positions can be held. Internationally, factors such as the US Senate's tax bill, US soybean area, and Argentine soybean production are intertwined. Domestically, there is a supply - pressure on the short - term price, but long - term cost support exists [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: After the import auction is finalized, the futures price drops in advance. The supply pressure from policy - grain auctions and the substitution of wheat for feed are negative factors, while the potential production - demand gap is a positive factor [9][10]. - **Hogs**: The strengthening of the macro - sentiment drives up both the spot and futures prices. In the short term, there is a price rebound, but in the long term, there is supply - suppression risk [11][12][13]. - **Natural Rubber**: The strong rise of commodities drives the rubber price to run strongly. Currently, the supply has an incremental expectation, and the demand has a decreasing expectation, but it is difficult for a sharp decline to occur in the third quarter [14][16]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures price oscillates within a narrow range. The market is mainly affected by the fluctuations of natural rubber and overall commodities, and the end - user's raw material procurement attitude is negative [17]. - **Cotton**: The low - inventory structure supports the cotton price. Although there is an expected increase in new - cotton production and weak demand in the off - season, the current low inventory makes the price relatively resistant to decline [18][20]. - **Sugar**: There is insufficient power for continuous strengthening. Both domestic and international markets face potential supply - increase pressure, and there is a limit to the price rebound [21]. - **Pulp**: The warm trading atmosphere in the financial market drives the pulp price. However, the supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the futures price is expected to oscillate downward [22]. - **Logs**: The supply - demand is weak, and the market oscillates. The market is in the off - season, and the mid - term is affected by weak fundamentals [23][24]. (2)品种数据监测 - The report only lists the names of various product categories such as oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, etc., without specific data monitoring content provided.

公司近况 7 月2 日，公司公告子公司永祥股份引入战略投资者进展暨实施增资扩股完成。公司与11 家战略投资者 就增资扩股事宜签署相关协议，收到本次战略投资者股权增资款合计约49.16 亿元人民币，并于近日完 成永祥股份的工商变更登记手续。 评论 硅料行业报价上涨，中期供给侧改革可期。根据硅业分会本周数据，N型复投料成交价格区间为3.40- 3.80 万元/吨，成交均价3.47 万元/吨，环比小幅回升0.87%；N型颗粒硅成交价格区间为3.30-3.40 万元/ 吨，成交均价维持在3.35 万元/吨。我们认为硅料报价上涨主要由于：1）近期硅料产量相对稳定，行业 累库压力有限；2）国家相关部门多措并举，持续释放供给侧改革利好信号。我们认为当前光伏板块底 部明确，走出本轮底部周期的关键在于解决供给大于需求的矛盾，而光伏行业经过超过一年经营性亏 损，单纯市场化出清存在一定难度，政策端供给侧改革是最直接有效的方法。考虑硅料环节供需矛盾相 对深、成本曲线相对陡峭、且位于光伏主产业链最上游，因此我们认为硅料环节的供给侧改革对于产业 链供需和盈利修复影响更大。考虑通威股份为硅料行业产能/销量市占第一，成本位于西门子法硅料成 ...

热点报告——商品期货 财经委会议强调"反内卷" "反内卷"政策的总体思路包括两方面，一是加强行业自律管 理，包括限制低价竞争、自律限产等；二是推进产业升级、落 后产能去化。但本轮"反内卷"政策和 2015 年供给侧革的环境 有很多不同：多数行业产能升级后，产能去化难度更大；除了 上游外，中下游产能过剩情况也较为突出；地产等终端需求尚 未出现企稳回升迹象，对商品价格持续提振的驱动有所不足。 ★"反内卷"对国债和重点商品的影响： 商 国债：基准假设之下，反内卷政策对于国债的影响相对有限。 但需要警惕需求侧政策配合发力，带来国债期货下跌的风险。 期 货 多晶硅、工业硅：6 月底在发改委限价要求下，多晶硅企业报价 远高于下游可接受价格，供应端仍以复产为主。真正意义上涨 取决于减产落实和下游价格传导。工业硅传言大厂减产，但与 政策并未有直接关系，若期价上涨，企业复产套保概率较大。 玻璃、纯碱：光伏玻璃 7 月减产较多，但浮法玻璃尚未明确响 应"反内卷"，且高窑龄产线集中冷修不明显。在政策预期和 高基差下，玻璃期价存在一定支撑。但光伏玻璃减产利空纯碱 需求，建议多玻璃空纯碱套利操作。 钢铁：由于价格持续下行，行业品种结构 ...

交易提示 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-7-3） | 铁矿：近期铁矿石现货价格偏弱，盘面受情绪影响拉涨，基差继续收窄。 | 本期全球铁矿石发运总量、到港量双双下滑，但整体处于近年来同期高位 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 水平，后期铁矿发运有冲量预期，到港压力或增大。产业端淡季，五大钢 | 铁矿石 | 反弹 | 材产量增，铁水淡季不淡，铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，240 | 以上的高铁水 | | | | | | | | | 仍旧能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水状况。供给侧改革消息扰动叠加唐山 | 限产带动黑色价格上涨，原料跟涨。中长期看，铁矿石整体呈现供应逐步 | | | | | | | | | | | | 回升、需求相对低位、港口库存步入累库通道的局面，铁矿供需过剩格局 | 不变，介于短期情绪扰动，建议前期空单离场观望。 | | | | | | | | | | | | 煤焦：供给侧改革消息扰动叠加唐山限产带动黑色价格上涨，原料跟涨。 | 煤焦 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the stock index futures market, the concept of "anti - involution competition" is emerging, boosting policy expectations. The market is in the first stage of trading policy expectations, and the "policy bottom" of commodity prices may have appeared, which is beneficial to the inflation chain. There is a potential risk of market - capitalization style shifting to large - cap stocks. It is recommended to take profits on IM long positions at high prices and consider arbitrage opportunities [1][6]. - In the stock index options market, due to low liquidity, low volatility, and ineffective sentiment indicators, the market trend is likely to be volatile, and a covered - call defensive strategy is recommended [2][6]. - In the treasury bond futures market, bond market sentiment is warming up. The easing of the capital market at the beginning of the month and the reduction in the issuance scale of some treasury bonds are positive factors. However, the central bank's cautious liquidity injection and the potential high supply of new local bonds in July may limit the decline in interest rates, and the bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [3][7][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Views Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: The concept of "anti - involution competition" has emerged, with a focus on industries such as cement, polysilicon, and coal. Commodity futures have risen first, driving up related sectors in the stock market, and funds have flowed out of small - cap growth sectors. The IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts have shown changes in basis, inter - delivery spreads, and positions [1][6]. - **Logic**: The current supply - demand pattern remains loose, and supply has not been substantially cleared. The "policy bottom" of commodity prices may have appeared, and there is a potential risk of market - capitalization style shifting to large - cap stocks [1][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Take profits on IM long positions at high prices and consider long - far - month and short - near - month arbitrage opportunities. The overall suggestion is to wait and see [1][6]. Stock Index Options - **Market Situation**: The trading volume of the options market has continued to decline, and trading liquidity is lower than expected. The average implied volatility of each option variety has decreased by 0.05%, and sentiment indicators are not guiding [2][6]. - **Logic**: Low liquidity and volatility, along with ineffective sentiment indicators, suggest that the index has resistance above, and the market trend is likely to be volatile [2][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a covered - call defensive strategy [2][6]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Situation**: Treasury bond futures rose collectively. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inter - delivery spreads, inter - variety spreads, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL contracts. The central bank conducted 985 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 3653 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing [7]. - **Logic**: At the beginning of the month, the capital market continued to ease, and the issuance scale of some treasury bonds decreased, which improved bond market sentiment. However, the central bank's cautious attitude towards liquidity injection and the potential high supply of new local bonds in July limit the decline in interest rates [3][7][8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a volatile trend strategy. For hedging, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels. For basis trading, appropriately pay attention to basis widening. For the yield curve, the odds of steepening the curve in the medium term are higher [8]. Economic Calendar - On June 30, 2025, China's official manufacturing PMI for June was 49.7, up from the previous value of 49.5 [9]. - On July 1, 2025, the final value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI for June was 52.9, higher than the previous value and the forecast value of 52 [9]. - On July 3, 2025, the US will release data on the unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls for June, with forecast values of 4.30% and 11.3 million respectively [9]. Important Information and News Tracking - **Domestic Macroeconomics**: The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch of "two major" construction projects in 2025, and the 800 - billion - yuan project list for this year has been fully released, covering multiple key areas [9]. - **Commodities**: The Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association stated that the polysilicon market showed signs of recovery this week, with the average market price rising slightly [10]. Derivatives Market Monitoring No specific content for in - depth analysis is provided in the text for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures market monitoring.